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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification of Transition Scenario Simulations

This report documents the first collective attempt at developing and applying capabilities to quantify uncertainties, assess parametric sensitivities, and optimize multiple parameters and metrics in fuel cycle simulations generated by the SA&I Campaign. To do this, external codes that were designed to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (SA&UQ) needed to be coupled to the SA&I Campaign’s nuclear fuel cycle simulators (NFCS). In FY20, two approaches were pursued: 1) coupling Cyclus to an ORNL-internal code called MOT (Metaheuristic Optimization Tool) and 2) coupling DYMOND to the opensource SA&UQ tool kit Dakota. The primary objective of having these NFCS/SA&UQ coupled capabilities is to better inform DOE-NE and other stakeholders on the results generated from the NFCS. For a given set of fuel cycle strategies, policies, and technology assumptions that make up a fuel cycle scenario, these NFCS have traditionally been used by the SA&I Campaign to provide quantitative answers in terms of year-by-year mass flows, infrastructure requirements, costs, etc. With these newly developed coupled capabilities, the SA&I Campaign can now efficiently simulate hundreds or thousands of these scenarios, sample large ranges of parameters and assumptions, and use the unique features of the SA&UQ tools to process the data. This enables providing answers with known and propagated uncertainties, determining the sensitivity of important metrics to different parameters and assumptions, quantifying how much fuel cycle and technology parameters impact each other, and producing optimized fuel cycle strategies for single and multiple variables. To demonstrate these new capabilities, the Cyclus/MOT was used to model several scenarios ranging from simple fleet retirements to transitions to advanced reactors. Specifically, for a transition scenario from LWRs to SFRs and advanced LWRs, uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, and optimization studies were applied to cases involving single and multiple parameter (input) and single and multiple metric (output) variations. In addition, a similar transition scenario was modeled to demonstrate how to optimize the reprocessing capacity parameter to minimize two performance metrics while taking into account uncertainties from two other parameters. Lastly, a depletion module based on SCALE/ORIGEN was added in Cyclus to simulate the third scenario that was designed to quantify the impact of the modeling assumption that all LWR used nuclear fuel have the same burnup. The newly developed DYMOND/Dakota capability was also applied to a transition scenario from the existing fleet to small modular reactors and fast reactors. This particular scenario involves not only explicit isotopic depletion via ORIGEN-2, but also includes multirecycling and utilizing the criticality search feature to determine the fresh fuel composition of recycled fuel, a feature unique to the DYMOND NFCS. A large database of simulations were run with 4 main parameters that were sampled: start date of reprocessing, reprocessing capacity, energy demand growth rate, and advanced reactor share of the fleet. The 4 main metrics were uranium consumption, enrichment requirements, waste generation, and levelized cost of electricity using data from the Cost Basis Report. The demonstrated SA&UQ results include those that inform on how to choose parameters to avoid “failed” scenarios, Sobol’ indices that inform on the importance of various parameters individually and synergistically, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) studies that decompose parameter ranges into groups and informs on whether variations are statistically significant.

Feng, B.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Studies to Improve the Sensitivity to Low Energy Interactions in Dual-Phase Xenon Dark Matter Detectors. Department of Energy Office of Science Graduate Student Research (SCGSR) Program, Final project report

Noble liquid time projection chambers (TPCs) are some of the most sensitive particle detectors ever developed. They see use in searches for new physics with neutrinos, or for new particles like dark matter. They work by sensing light and charge signals left behind by particle interactions in a volume of liquified xenon or argon. TPCs are so sensitive that even a single electron liberated in an interaction can be readily detected. However this sensitivity to signals comes with a sensitivity to background noise, with one example being single electrons that arrive long after the signals from a true particle interaction. This type of noise has been the subject of multiple studies, which have concluded that single electron backgrounds are well correlated with prior events in the TPC, as well as impurities in the detection medium. At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), the XeNu TPC is a testbed for a novel study of these backgrounds by generating data with new components made of aluminum and Shapal--the latter being an exotic ceramic which can be machined using standard tools. These materials were selected to replace plastic components which introduce impurities in the TPC during operation. Without plastic, the hope is that electron backgrounds will be reduced, leaving new opportunities for studying their origins and dependence on impurities. The SCGSR fellowship served as a springboard to help meet these objectives. Over the course of a year, the new components were designed, fabricated, and installed in XeNu. Following their installation, data was taken for use in a future study that will enable the electron background contributions from plastic components to be studied directly. In the interim, preliminary analysis results indicate that electron backgrounds with the new components are roughly 50% lower. This has established the efficacy of Shapal as a low-background replacement for plastic components where electrical and thermal stability are needed

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dyes, dye-sensitized solar cells, and methods of making and using the same

Provided herein are dyes, dye-sensitized solar cells, and sequential series multijunction dye-sensitized solar cell devices. The dyes include an electron deficient acceptor moiety, a medium electron density π-bridge moiety, and an electron rich donor moiety comprising a biaryl, a substituted biaryl, or an R 1 , R 2 , R 3 substituted phenyl where each of R 1 , R 2 , and R 3 independently comprises H, aryl, multiaryl, alkyl substituted aryl, alkoxy substituted aryl, alkyl substituted multiaryl, alkoxy substituted multiaryl, OR 4 , N(R 5 ) 2 , or a combination thereof; each R 4 independently comprises H, alkyl, aryl, alkyl substituted aryl, alkoxy substituted aryl, or a combination thereof; and each R 5 independently comprises aryl, multiaryl, alkyl substituted aryl, alkoxy substituted aryl, alkyl substituted multiaryl, alkoxy substituted multiaryl, or a combination thereof. The solar cells include a glass substrate, a dye-sensitized active layer, and a redox shuttle. The devices include at least two dye-sensitized solar cells connected in series.

Delcamp, Jared Heath↗
DOE OSTI2018

WIPP PA Sensitivity Studies in Support of CRA-2014 Completeness Determination and Compliance Decision - 18209

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) has been developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. Containment of TRU waste at the WIPP is regulated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The DOE demonstrates compliance with the containment requirements by means of performance assessment (PA) calculations. WIPP PA calculations estimate the probability and consequence of potential radionuclide releases from the repository to the accessible environment for a regulatory period of 10,000 years after facility closure. Since TRU waste was first received at the WIPP in 1999, compliance recertification applications (CRAs) have been required by the EPA on five-year cycle. The latest CRA (CRA-2014) was submitted by the DOE to the EPA in 2014. As part of the application, a formal set of PA calculations (CRA-2014 PA) was performed and results were documented in detail. The CRA-2014 PA incorporated several parameter updates based on new data, as well as the implementation of a different model for panel closures, barriers planned for the opening of each waste panel. The results presented as part of the CRA-2014 showed via the required complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) release curves that the estimated releases were within compliance limits. As part of their process for reviewing the completeness of the CRA-2014 [1], the EPA formally requested that the DOE perform sensitivity studies based on EPA-requested changes to model parameters. The DOE performed and documented the results of three sensitivity studies described below: CRA14-SEN2 [2], CRA14-SEN3 [3], and CRA14-SEN4 [4]. In each case, the new analysis results were compared to CRA- 2014 PA (CRA14) results to determine the impact of the EPA-requested changes. CRA14-SEN2: the application of EPA-requested modified parameters in the operations and experimental (non-waste) areas of the repository to simulate an accelerated (instantaneous) creep closure, the inclusion of capillary pressure effects on relative permeability, and an increase in initial/residual brine saturation and residual gas saturation. The modifications to the repository model resulted in increased pressures and decreased brine saturations in waste areas and increased pressures and brine saturations in the operations and experimental areas. However, the overall effects on total high-probability mean releases from the repository were entirely insignificant. It was concluded that the modeling assumptions associated with the operations and experimental areas of the repository have an insignificant effect on the prediction of total releases from the repository and/or adequacy of the current (CRA14) model to demonstrate compliance with the regulatory limits. CRA14-SEN3: the application of EPA-requested modified parameters in the panel closure areas and operations and experimental (non-waste) areas of the repository to simulate an accelerated (instantaneous) creep closure, the inclusion of capillary pressure effects on relative permeability, and an increase in initial/residual brine saturation and residual gas saturation. The modifications to the repository model predominantly result in increased pressures and decreased brine saturations in waste areas, increased pressures and brine saturations in the operations and experimental areas, and decreased brine and gas flows across all panel closures. The pressure increases in repository waste regions yielded slightly decreased brine saturations (on average) in those areas. However, the overall effects on total high-probability mean releases from the repository are entirely insignificant. It was concluded that the modeling assumptions made for this sensitivity study which were associated with the panel closures and north end areas of the repository have only a small effect on the prediction of total releases from the repository and/or adequacy of the current (CRA14) model to demonstrate compliance with the regulatory limits. CRA14-SEN4: the application of several changes to the current WIPP PA model (CRA14), including: parameter changes, use of an updated code, and a revised computational grid for the BRAGFLO code. The modifications to the repository model resulted in increased releases in all primary release mechanisms. The impacts of each EPA-requested change to CRA14 were analyzed with respect to each release mechanism in the CRA14-SEN4 study. Overall, total high-probability predicted mean releases from the repository were increased by about 15%. Total low-probability predicted mean releases were increased by about 107%. It was concluded that the EPA-requested changes to the CRA14 result in increases to the predicted total releases from the repository. However, releases calculated in the CRA14-SEN4 analysis remained below regulatory limits, demonstrating continued compliance of the WIPP. In January 2017, the EPA determined that CRA-2014 was complete and then began a technical evaluation of CRA-2014 to determine whether the WIPP continued to comply with the radiation protection standards for disposal. During their evaluation, the EPA utilized the sensitivity study results to inform their ultimate determination in July 2017 that the WIPP continues to comply with regulatory standards. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

Design-to-Device Approach Affords Panchromatic Co-sensitized Solar Cells

Data–driven materials discovery has become increasingly important in identifying materials that exhibit specific, desirable properties from a vast chemical search space. Synergic prediction and experimental validation are needed to accelerate scientific advances related to critical societal applications. A design–to–device study that uses high–throughput screens with algorithmic encodings of structure–property relationships is reported to identify new materials with panchromatic optical absorption, whose photovoltaic device applications are then experimentally verified. The data–mining methods source 9431 dye candidates, which are auto–generated from the literature using a custom text–mining tool. These candidates are sifted via a data–mining workflow that is tailored to identify optimal combinations of organic dyes that have complementary optical absorption properties such that they can harvest all available sunlight when acting as co–sensitizers for dye–sensitized solar cells (DSSCs). Six promising dye combinations are shortlisted for device testing, whereupon one dye combination yields co–sensitized DSSCs with power conversion efficiencies comparable to those of the high–performance, organometallic dye, N719. Here, these results demonstrate how data–driven molecular engineering can accelerate materials discovery for panchromatic photovoltaic or other applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Parametric Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification in the Version 1 of E3SM Atmosphere Model Based on Short Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Simulations

Abstract The atmospheric component of Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 has included many new features in the physics parameterizations compared to its predecessors. Potential complex nonlinear interactions among the new features create a significant challenge for understanding the model behaviors and parameter tuning. Using the one‐at‐a‐time method, the benefit of tuning one parameter may offset the benefit of tuning another parameter, or improvement in one target variable may lead to degradation in another target variable. To better understand the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 model behaviors and physics, we conducted a large number of short simulations (three days) in which 18 parameters carefully selected from parameterizations of deep convection, shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics and microphysics were perturbed simultaneously using the Latin hypercube sampling method. From the perturbed parameter ensemble simulations and use of different skill score functions, we identified the most sensitive parameters, quantified how the model responds to changes of the parameters for both global mean and spatial distribution, and estimated the maximum likelihood of model parameter space for a number of important fidelity metrics. Comparison of the parametric sensitivity using simulations of two different lengths suggests that perturbed parameter ensemble using short simulations has some bearing on understanding parametric sensitivity of longer simulations. Results from this analysis provide a more comprehensive picture of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 behavior. The difficulty in reducing biases in multiple variables simultaneously highlights the need of characterizing model structural uncertainty (so‐called embedded errors) to inform future development efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Fourier amplitude sensitivity test applied to dynamic combined finite-discrete element methods-based simulations

Fracture propagation plays a key role for a number of applications of interest to the scientific community, from dynamic fracture processes like spallation and fragmentation in metals to failure of ceramics, airplane wings, etc. Simulations of material deformation and fracture propagation rely on accurate knowledge of material characteristics such as material strength and the amount of energy being dissipated during the fracture process. Within the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM) framework material fracture behavior is typically described through a parametrized softening curve, which defines a stress-strain relationship unique to each material. We apply the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test to explore how each of these parameters influences the simulated damage processes and to determine the key input parameters that have the most impact on the model response. We present several sensitivity numerical experiments for the simulation of a split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) test for weathered granite samples using different combinations of model parameters. We validate the obtained results against SHPB experimental data. The experiments show that the model is mostly sensitive to parameters related to tensile and shear strengths, even in the presence of other parameter perturbations. Lastly, the results suggest that the specification of tensile and shear strengths at the interfaces dominate the stress-time history of the FDEM simulation of SHPB test.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Eddy Fluxes and Sensitivity of the Water Cycle to Spatial Resolution in Idealized Regional Aquaplanet Model Simulations

A multi-scale moisture budget analysis is used to identify the mechanisms responsible for the sensitivity of the water cycle to spatial resolution using idealized regional aquaplanet simulations. In the higher resolution simulations, moisture transport by eddies fluxes dry the boundary layer enhancing evaporation and precipitation. This effect of eddies, which is underestimated by the physics parameterizations in the low-resolution simulations, is found to be responsible for the sensitivity of the water cycle both directly, and through its upscale effect, on the mean circulation. Correlations among moisture transport by eddies at adjacent ranges of scales provides the potential for reducing this sensitivity by representing the unresolved eddies by their marginally resolved counterparts.

cycle↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long-term measurements in a mixed-grass prairie reveal a change in soil organic carbon recalcitrance and its environmental sensitivity under warming

Soil respiration, the major pathway for ecosystem carbon (C) loss, has the potential to enter a positive feedback loop with the atmospheric CO2 due to climate warming. For reliable projections of climate-carbon feedbacks, accurate quantification of soil respiration and identification of mechanisms that control its variability are essential. Process-based models simulate soil respiration as functions of belowground C input, organic matter quality, and sensitivity to environmental conditions. However, evaluation and calibration of process-based models against the long-term in situ measurements are rare. Here, we evaluate the performance of the Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model in simulating total and heterotrophic soil respiration measured during a 16-year warming experiment in a mixed-grass prairie; calibrate model parameters against these and other measurements collected during the experiment; and explore whether the mechanisms of C dynamics have changed over the years. Calibrating model parameters against observations of individual years substantially improved model performance in comparison to pre-calibration simulations, explaining 79–86% of variability in observed soil respiration. Interannual variation of the calibrated model parameters indicated increasing recalcitrance of soil C and changing environmental sensitivity of microbes. Overall, we found that (1) soil organic C became more recalcitrant in intact soil compared to root-free soil; (2) warming offset the effects of increasing C recalcitrance in intact soil and changed microbial sensitivity to moisture conditions. Furthermore, these findings indicate that soil respiration may decrease in the future due to C quality, but this decrease may be offset by warming-induced changes in C cycling mechanisms and their responses to moisture conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Optimizing human activity patterns using global sensitivity analysis

Implementing realistic activity patterns for a population is crucial for modeling, for example, disease spread, supply and demand, and disaster response. Using the dynamic activity simulation engine, DASim, we generate schedules for a population that capture regular (e.g., working, eating, and sleeping) and irregular activities (e.g., shopping or going to the doctor). We use the sample entropy (SampEn) statistic to quantify a schedule’s regularity for a population. We show how to tune an activity’s regularity by adjusting SampEn, thereby making it possible to realistically design activities when creating a schedule. The tuning process sets up a computationally intractable high-dimensional optimization problem. To reduce the computational demand, we use Bayesian Gaussian process regression to compute global sensitivity indices and identify the parameters that have the greatest effect on the variance of SampEn. Here we use the harmony search (HS) global optimization algorithm to locate global optima. Our results show that HS combined with global sensitivity analysis can efficiently tune the SampEn statistic with few search iterations. We demonstrate how global sensitivity analysis can guide statistical emulation and global optimization algorithms to efficiently tune activities and generate realistic activity patterns. Finally, though our tuning methods are applied to dynamic activity schedule generation, they are general and represent a significant step in the direction of automated tuning and optimization of high-dimensional computer simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity-Driven Experimental Design to Facilitate Control of Dynamical Systems

Control of nonlinear dynamical systems is a complex and multifaceted process. Essential elements of many engineering systems include high-fidelity physics-based modeling, offline trajectory planning, feedback control design, and data acquisition strategies to reduce uncertainties. Here this article proposes an optimization-centric perspective which couples these elements in a cohesive framework. We introduce a novel use of hyper-differential sensitivity analysis to understand the sensitivity of feedback controllers to parametric uncertainty in physics-based models used for trajectory planning. These sensitivities provide a foundation to define an optimal experimental design which seeks to acquire data most relevant in reducing demand on the feedback controller. Our proposed framework is illustrated on the Zermelo navigation problem and a hypersonic trajectory control problem using data from NASA’s X-43 hypersonic flight tests.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitive parameter identification and uncertainty quantification for the stability of pipeline conveying fluid

In this study, several uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis methods are used to determine the most sensitive geometric and material input parameters of a cantilevered pipeline conveying fluid when uncertainty is introduced to the system at the onset of instability. The full nonlinear equations of motion are modeled using the extended Hamilton’s principle and then discretized using Galerkin’s method. A parametric study is first performed, and the Morris elementary effects are calculated to obtain a preliminary understanding of how the onset speed changes when each parameter is introduced to a ± 5% uncertainty. Then, four different input uncertainty distributions, mainly, uniform and Gaussian distribution, are chosen to investigate how input distributions affect uncertainty in the output. A convergence analysis is used to determine the number of samples needed to maintain simulation accuracy while saving the most computational time. Then, Monte Carlo simulations are run, and the output distributions for each input distribution at ± 1%, ± 3% and ± 5% input uncertainty range are found and discussed. Additionally, the Pearson correlation coefficients are evaluated for different uncertainty ranges. A final Monte Carlo study is performed in which single parameters are held constant while all others still have uncertainty. Overall, the flow speed at the onset of instability is the most sensitive to changes in the outer diameter of the pipe.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Sensitivity enhancement of surface plasmon resonance sensor with 2D material covered noble and magnetic material (Ni)

In this paper, surface plasmon resonance (SPR) sensor on 2D materials such as MoS{sub 2} and graphene on Au and magnetic material Ni in Kretschmann configuration is analyzed using transfer matrix method. Here we noted that by sandwiching the MoS{sub 2} layer between the Au and Ni film and adding graphene over Ni film improved the sensitivity as high as 229°/RIU. We also noted that the sensitivity of the proposed sensor changes with the addition of no. of layers of graphene and MoS{sub 2}. We expect that such a high sensitivity SPR sensor could find optional application in chemical examination, medical diagnostic and biological detections.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Bio-compatible and highly sensitive two-dimensional plasmonic sensor

We propose a novel bio-compatible two dimensional plasmonic sensor with array of ring and the hole structure on an optically thick gold film for biochemical sensing. We use finite-difference time-domain simulation for design and calculation of sensitivity in the near-infrared region. The bio-compatible and cheap plasmonic glycerol sensor with high sensitivity by interferometer style as a motif in the sensor’s structure. The proposed sensor can be applied as highly sensitivity sensor with a good linear response under different glycerol concentrations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Sensitivity analysis of ring-shaped slotted photonic crystal waveguides for mid-infrared refractive index sensing

In this paper, the sensitivity of slotted photonic crystal waveguides (SPCW) with triangular lattice pattern of ring-shaped holes is analyzed in order to realize highly refractive index (RI) sensor devices at mid-infrared wavelengths. The sensing principle is based on the shift of the transmission spectrum edge of these specific ring hole SPCW waveguides giving rise to reinforced light–matter interaction. The 3D simulation results applied to silicon waveguides on membrane show that this guide geometry leads to a very high sensitivity to variations in the ambient environment index, with very dependent trends on the opto-geometric factors of the waveguides. As a matter of example, a 720 nm wavelength position band edge shift is predicted, corresponding to a sensitivity of more than 1450 nm per refractive index unit with a device insertion loss level of − 3 dB.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Structure Sensitivity of Formic Acid Decomposition on Cu Catalysts

Catalytic decomposition of formic acid (HCOOH) has attracted substantial attention since HCOOH is a major by-product in biomass reforming, a promising hydrogen carrier, and also a potential low temperature fuel cell feed. Despite the abundance of experimental studies for vapor-phase HCOOH decomposition on Cu catalysts, the reaction mechanism and its structure sensitivity is still under debate. In this work, self-consistent, periodic density functional theory calculations were performed on three model surfaces of copper—Cu(111), Cu(100) and Cu(211), and both the HCOO (formate)-mediated and COOH (carboxyl)-mediated pathways were investigated for HCOOH decomposition. The energetics of both pathways suggest that the HCOO-mediated route is more favorable than the COOH-mediated route on all three surfaces, and that HCOOH decomposition proceeds through two consecutive dehydrogenation steps via the HCOO intermediate followed by the recombinative desorption of H 2 . On all three surfaces, HCOO dehydrogenation is the likely rate determining step since it has the highest transition state energy and also the highest activation energy among the three catalytic steps in the HCOO pathway. The reaction is structure sensitive on Cu catalysts since the examined three Cu facets have dramatically different binding strengths for the key intermediate HCOO and varied barriers for the likely rate determining step—HCOO dehydrogenation. Cu(100) and Cu(211) bind HCOO much more strongly than Cu(111), and they are also characterized by potential energy surfaces that are lower in energy than that for the Cu(111) facet. Coadsorbed HCOO and H represents the most stable state along the reaction coordinate, indicating that, under reaction conditions, there might be a substantial surface coverage of the HCOO intermediate, especially at under-coordinated step, corner or defect sites. Therefore, under reaction conditions, HCOOH decomposition is predicted to occur most readily on the terrace sites of Cu nanoparticles. Finally, as a result, we hereby present an example of a fundamentally structure-sensitive reaction, which may present itself as structure-insensitive in typical varied particle-size experiments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Sensitivity of Austempering Heat Treatment of Ductile Irons to Changes in Process Parameters

Austempered ductile iron (ADI) is frequently obtained by means of a three-step austempering heat treatment. The parameters of this process play a crucial role on the microstructure of the final product. This paper considers the influence of some process parameters (i.e., the initial microstructure of ductile iron and the thermal cycle) on key features of the heat treatment (such as minimum required time for austenitization and austempering and microstructure of the final product). A computational simulation of the austempering heat treatment is reported in this work, which accounts for a coupled thermo-metallurgical behavior in terms of the evolution of temperature at the scale of the part being investigated (the macroscale) and the evolution of phases at the scale of microconstituents (the microscale). The paper focuses on the sensitivity of the process by looking at a sensitivity index and scatter plots. The sensitivity indices are determined by using a technique based on the variance of the output. The results of this study indicate that both the initial microstructure and the thermal cycle parameters play a key role in the production of ADI. This work also provides a guideline to help selecting values of the appropriate process parameters to obtain parts with a required microstructural characteristic.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Efficient Computational Modeling of Human Ventricular Activation and Its Electrocardiographic Representation: A Sensitivity Study

Patient-specific models of the ventricular myocardium, combined with the computational power to run rapid simulations, are approaching the level where they could be used for personalized cardiovascular medicine. A major remaining challenge is determining model parameters from available patient data, especially for models of the Purkinje-myocardial junctions (PMJs): the sites of initial ventricular electrical activation. There are no non-invasive methods for localizing PMJs in patients, and the relationship between the standard clinical ECG and PMJ model parameters is underexplored. Thus, this study aimed to determine the sensitivity of the QRS complex of the ECG to the anatomical location and regional number of PMJs. The QRS complex was simulated using an image-based human torso and biventricular model, and cardiac electrophysiology was simulated using Cardioid. The PMJs were modeled as discrete current injection stimuli, and the location and number of stimuli were varied within initial activation regions based on published experiments. Results indicate that the QRS complex features were most sensitive to the presence or absence of four “seed” stimuli, and adjusting locations of nearby “regional” stimuli provided finer tuning. Decreasing number of regional stimuli by an order of magnitude resulted in virtually no change in the QRS complex. Thus, a minimal 12-stimuli configuration was identified that resulted in physiological excitation, defined by QRS complex feature metrics and ventricular excitation pattern. In conclusion, overall, the sensitivity results suggest that parameterizing PMJ location, rather than number, be given significantly higher priority in future studies creating personalized ventricular models from patient-derived ECGs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗