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DOE OSTI2020

Dragonstone Strategy – State of Cybersecurity in the Oil & Natural Gas Sector

The oil & natural gas (ONG) system touches every corner of the nation and increased communications & control capabilities have not only allowed for greater efficiency of system operation, but have also created a massive target for adversaries to launch cyber-attacks. Like any other heavy industrial process, the ONG system relies on a complex system of information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT) devices. The current state of cyber-preparedness across the ONG industry varies from organization to organization. Among the most common challenges that ONG companies face are remote locations, longlived field assets, and lacking capabilities to find and track malware on their systems. ONG companies tend to be concerned with lack of cyber-awareness from employees, risk stemming from remote access for operations & maintenance, and software vulnerabilities within third-party equipment. Various industry and government organizations are performing research and development activities to address some of these challenges, but in many cases industry stakeholders are not aware of solutions that already exist. It is clear that a need exists for a coherent, comprehensive, multi-layered strategy for assuring the security and resilience of the nation's pipeline infrastructure against cyber threats. For a variety of reasons, the general consensus from stakeholders interviewed by LLNL is that the state of cyber-security within the electric grid is currently outpacing its ONG cousin. Existing strategies for the resilience and cyber-security of the electric grid can and should be leveraged to provide immediate benefits to the ONG system. In LLNL’s view, there are two key factors currently limiting the development of necessary cyber-practices within the ONG industry: The sheer number of differing regulatory bodies and trade groups offering both standards and best-practice recommendations for ONG cyber-security makes it difficult to create a comprehensive, directed, and coherent strategy that is applicable to all players within the ONG industry. The ONG industry is unaware of potentially useful technologies that have been developed for ensuring cyber-security of other infrastructure systems, such as the electric grid. Leveraging these technologies—and the science and engineering behind them—can provide some low-hanging fruit that can greatly improve cyber-security in the ONG industry without significant investments in terms of time and money. In the months following this report, LLNL will continue to perform outreach to key oil & gas industry stakeholders in a continual effort to identify the most pressing cyber-resilience issues in the industry. This outreach will be supplemented with LLNL’s threat intelligence capabilities to begin painting a clearer picture of the overall threat landscape faced by this sector. This assessment will be threat-informed and while the strategy itself will not be classified we will leverage intelligence analysis and adversary capabilities to identify gaps in current cybersecurity practices for oil & gas pipeline systems. Recommended efforts will be compiled into a cyber-resilience roadmap for the oil & gas pipeline sector, in which LLNL will highlight priority activities to immediately improve the state of cyber-resilience in the industry.

02 PETROLEUM↗

NASA NTRS2021

Global Methane Assessment: Benefits and Costs of Mitigating Methane Emissions

The assessment highlights the critical role that cutting methane emissions, including from the fossil fuel industry, plays in slowing the rate of global warming. Cutting human-caused methane by 45% this decade would keep warming beneath a threshold agreed by world leaders. There are multiple benefits to acting including: the rapid reduction of warming, which can help prevent dangerous climate tipping points; improved air quality that can save hundreds of thousands of lives; improve food security by preventing crop losses; and create jobs through mitigation efforts while increasing productivity through reduced heat stress.

Methane↗

DOE OSTI2020

Automated Data Review of Analytical Laboratory Results at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 20299

Newport News Nuclear BWXT-Los Alamos, LLC (N3B) collects samples in support of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) Los Alamos Legacy Cleanup Contract (LLCC). N3B receives and reviews over 1.6 million sample data points annually in support of various ongoing environmental monitoring and remediation projects of the LLCC. N3B must demonstrate and document that reported external analytical laboratory data produced for the LLCC are of sufficient quality to fulfill their intended purpose and to support defensible decision making as described in EPA QA/G4 Guidance for the Data Quality Objectives Process 1994. In 2018, N3B assumed management of the LLCC along with the Environmental Information Management (EIM) database that contains all historical and current environmental data associated with the LLCC. The entire EIM database is shared between N3B, Triad National Security, LLC (Triad), and New Mexico Environment Department (NMED). These three parties jointly manage the database, its configuration, and changes / updates. All environmental data that are entered into EIM are updated and available, on a daily basis, in the linked public database Intellus New Mexico (Intellus). The quality and defensibility of the environmental data generated from sampling activities is a key component of an effective remediation process. Providing quality data is accomplished through a data assessment process that includes examination, verification, and validation. Examination is the assessment of completeness of the deliverables, identification of any reporting errors, and determining the usability of the data based on the laboratory's evaluation of its data as described in the case narrative received with the data. Verification consists of an evaluation of the Electronic Data Deliverables (EDD) data report to determine the extent to which the external analytical laboratories met method and contract-specific quality control and reporting requirements. Validation consists of determining the data quality and the extent to which the external analytical laboratories accurately and completely reported all sample and quality control results and satisfied all contract requirements. EIM contains an automatic Data Validation Module which performs automated data review (DVM ADR). DVM ADR is a tool to assist in the validation process. When DVM ADR is used in conjunction with manual examination of sample data packages, the combination of the two will meet and exceed the requirements of verification. N3B recognized an opportunity for process improvement, focusing on DVM ADR configuration and enhancements in EIM. Testing EIM's configuration provided proof of the DVM ADR's capabilities and flexibility to accurately perform routine data checks based on analytical methods and regulatory requirements. In addition, the DVM ADR module was improved through enhancements for all analytes, particularly upgrades for radiochemistry data. Extensive testing of the DVM ADR module occurred using EDDs from actual laboratory analyses on the EIM testing site. During this process, N3B manipulated EDD information to verify that the actual outcomes matched the expected outcomes. The results of this testing were shared with the database architects, and configuration improvements were identified to address these results. During this process, N3B identified that the radiochemical DVM ADR capabilities were underutilized, and so enhanced the DVM ADR functionality with respect to radioanalytical assessment. N3B environmental data uploads to Intellus on a daily basis from EIM, once the analytical data undergoes examination and verification. As such, it is important to have a high level of confidence in the quality and defensibility of the data. The process of manual examination, along with the DVM ADR, in conjunction with full validation of a percentage the data specified through the Data Quality Objectives greatly increases efficiency of data review and confidence level of the quality of the data, and gives the project managers, governmental offices, and the public expedited access to high-quality data. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Neutronics Analysis of Cold Critical KRUSTY Experiments using MCNP and Serpent

Kilowatt Reactor Using Stirling Technology (KRUSTY) is a prototype designed as a proof of concept for NASA’s Kilo power program, which was funded in order to create a small reactor for various space applications such as providing power for a colony on Mars or the moon and eventually as a possible option for powering rockets on deep space missions. KRUSTY was tested at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) located at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) from November 2017, through March 2018. The experimental campaign was conducted in four phases: com ponent critical experiments, cold critical experiments, warm critical runs, and high temperature demonstration. The component critical and cold critical experiments were used to determine the worth of the beryllium oxide (BeO) reflector rings and the boron carbide (B4C) control rod disks under different conditions. These conditions were altered by the addition and subtraction of other components in the assembly. The component critical phase was performed at atmospheric pressure and had four solid support rods spanning the center core; whereas the cold critical phase had the center core placed in a vacuum chamber and eight sodium-filled heat pipes spanning the center core region. This summary discusses the static neutronic analysis completed on the cold critical phase of the campaign using MCNP ® and Serpent. These two codes were used to assess any potential differences or biases in the simulation results. Understanding these potential biases is a key step toward the final goal of being able to fully analyze the transient experiments performed during phases 3 and 4 of the campaign.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Detection of DoS Attacks Using ARFIMA Modeling of GOOSE Communication in IEC 61850 Substations

Integration of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in modern smart grids (SGs) offers many advantages including the use of renewables and an effective way to protect, control and monitor the energy transmission and distribution. To reach an optimal operation of future energy systems, availability, integrity and confidentiality of data should be guaranteed. Research on the cyber-physical security of electrical substations based on IEC 61850 is still at an early stage. In the present work, we first model the network traffic data in electrical substations, then, we present a statistical Anomaly Detection (AD) method to detect Denial of Service (DoS) attacks against the Generic Object Oriented Substation Event (GOOSE) network communication. According to interpretations on the self-similarity and the Long-Range Dependency (LRD) of the data, an Auto-Regressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model was shown to describe well the GOOSE communication in the substation process network. Based on this ARFIMA-model and in view of cyber-physical security, an effective model-based AD method is developed and analyzed. Two variants of the statistical AD considering statistical hypothesis testing based on the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT) and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) are presented to detect flooding attacks that might affect the availability of the data. Our work presents a novel AD method, with two different variants, tailored to the specific features of the GOOSE traffic in IEC 61850 substations. The statistical AD is capable of detecting anomalies at unknown change times under the realistic assumption of unknown model parameters. The performance of both variants of the AD method is validated and assessed using data collected from a simulation case study. We perform several Monte-Carlo simulations under different noise variances. The detection delay is provided for each detector and it represents the number of discrete time samples after which an anomaly is detected. In fact, our statistical AD method with both variants (CUSUM and GLRT) has around half the false positive rate and a smaller detection delay when compared with two of the closest works found in the literature. Our AD approach based on the GLRT detector has the smallest false positive rate among all considered approaches. Whereas, our AD approach based on the CUSUM test has the lowest false negative rate thus the best detection rate. Depending on the requirements as well as the costs of false alarms or missed anomalies, both variants of our statistical detection method can be used and are further analyzed using composite detection metrics.

IEC 61850 electrical substations↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantum imaging with positronium-decay-emitted gamma rays

The use of entangled gamma rays from positronium decay for quantum-enhanced imaging of dense materials is demonstrated. Quantum ghost images, where only one of the entangled 511-keV photons interacts with the object, are obtained for tantalum samples of varying density using a 210-ps time-resolution dual detector system and a Na-22 positron source. An analysis comparing both classical and quantum imaging modalities is employed to isolate true 511-keV events from background noise. Image quality is quantitatively assessed using transmission ratios and the Michelson contrast. Quantum-correlated images are found to exhibit superior (up to approximately 1.7x, from 0.49 to 0.83 in the thickest sample measured) contrast compared to classical methods and align well with theoretical expectations. These results suggest that quantum ghost imaging with positronium-based entangled gamma rays could significantly enhance noninvasive imaging of high-density objects, with potential applications in areas such as cargo inspection and security screening.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2021

LMI Automated Air Cargo Operations Market Research and Forecast

Air cargo companies and aircraft manufacturers are making significant investments to enable the movement of cargo via various levels of automated aircraft, such as aircraft with simplified operations requiring a pilot, remotely monitored or piloted aircraft, and fully autonomous aircraft. These investments will enable greater utilization of aircraft while unlocking new air markets traditionally served by ground transportation only. Many cargo companies and aerospace experts envision an operating environment where a single pilot can remotely pilot numerous aircraft for significant increases in aircraft utilization. The future operating environment is also expected to include air cargo companies flying smaller aircraft from airports and distribution centers outside of major U.S. cities directly to city centers, avoiding congested roads and increasing the velocity of cargo shipments, particularly those that are high-value, time-sensitive, and security sensitive (e.g., pharmaceuticals). These are just a few benefits and use cases cargo companies and aerospace experts see with the advancement of automated aircraft. To better understand industry’s direction, NASA asked the LMI team to research the forecasted market, timeline, risks, and opportunities for integrating unmanned air cargo vehicles into the National Airspace System (NAS) for the development and prioritization of the NASA Air Traffic Management Exploration’s research portfolio. To begin the market assessment, we gathered data via numerous interviews with key stakeholders and subject matter experts and literature reviews. We then incorporated the data into a custom-developed systems dynamics model and visualization dashboard. The systems dynamics model classifies the size of the market (e.g., overall fleet size of automated aircraft) for four distinct use cases over the next 20 years. The model projects the year in which various types of automated aircraft will enter the commercial cargo market based on our team’s collective research on when the aircraft will become viable due to manufacturing and certification timelines and the lifespan of current, traditional aircraft in service, to name a few factors. While this report defines our team’s estimated timeline of entry and growth, the model is dynamic—it enables NASA users to change variables based on future-year events. If the necessary technology does not mature in accordance with our assumptions, then NASA can change the entry of service point to a future year to evaluate the changes in market size in the out years. This flexibility will be key to deciding when and how NASA should invest in various areas.

air traffic management↗

NASA NTRS2017

Hyper-Spectral Communications, Networking and ATM as Foundation for Safe and Efficient Future Flight: Transcending Aviation Operational Limitations with Diverse and Secure Multi-Band, Multi-Mode, and mmWave Wireless Links: Project Overview, Aviation Communications and New Signaling

NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) has recently solicited proposals and awarded funds for research and development to achieve and exceed the goals envisioned in the ARMD Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP). The Hyper-Spectral Communications and Networking for Air Traffic Management (ATM) (HSCNA) project is the only University Leadership Initiative (ULI) program to address communications and networking (and to a degree, navigation and surveillance). This paper will provide an overview of the HSCNA project, and specifically describe two of the project's technical challenges: comprehensive aviation communications and networking assessment, and proposed multi-band and multimode communications and networking. The primary goals will be described, as will be research and development aimed to achieve and exceed these goals. Some example initial results are also provided.

aeronautics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Finding of No Adverse Effect for the Façade Alteration of Building 23-117, Administration Building, Mercury, Area 23, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) plans to update the façade of Building 23-117 in the town of Mercury (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15256), which is on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada. The purpose of the undertaking is to incorporate Building 23-117 into the new Mercury campus in accordance with the master plan for the modernization of Mercury. The NNSA/NFO will implement this undertaking in accordance with the Programmatic Agreement between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA. Building 23-117 was built in 1982 as the architect-engineer Administration Building1 for Holmes & Narver, a government contractor who helped design and engineer the town of Mercury and other areas on the NNSS from its inception until the termination of their contract in 1990. The building continued to be used by subsequent government contractors and is currently still in use by MSTS. The town of Mercury and the immediate surrounding area have been formally determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (National Register, NRHP) as the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230) under Criteria A and C for its importance in supporting nuclear testing and scientific research from 1951 through 1992. Building 23-117 was identified as a contributing element to the MHD in a 2018 architectural survey of the district (Reno et al.) and recorded on a Nevada Architectural Resource Assessment (ARA) form (Reno et al. 2017). It is a historic property for the purposes of compliance with Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) and is subject to the stipulations of the Mercury PA. The NNSA/NFO requested that Desert Research Institute (DRI), cultural resource subject matter experts, analyze the effects of the proposed project on historic properties in the Area of Potential Effect (APE) and make a recommended finding for the undertaking in accordance with Section 106 of the NHPA and the Mercury PA. The purpose of this letter report is to submit documentation related to the mitigation of the façade alteration of Building 23-117 (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15256) in the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230). This submission is intended to comply with the stipulations in the Programmatic Agreement between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Coupling geophysical, geological, geochemical and mineralogical assessments to examine preferential contaminant transport pathways in interbedded fractured bedrock

This study shows that a multi-faceted approach, combining borehole geophysical logging and surface seismic P-wave first-arrival tomography with confirmatory coring, well installation, and chemical and mineralogical analysis, is effective for identifying difficult-to-locate preferential contaminant transport pathways in deeper fractured bedrock. Seismic tomography detected porous 10–20 m wide elongated fractured conduits that allow acidic groundwater contaminated with uranium (U) and nitrate (NO 3 - ) to migrate within interbedded shale-limestone bedrock over 1000 m from a former disposal facility (S-3 Ponds site) located at the DOE Y-12 National Security Complex in Tennessee (USA). Conventional drilling techniques would easily miss these conduits because they are oriented parallel with fractured bedding planes. Synchrotron analysis of aquifer solids revealed that > 95 % of the U is hexavalent (U VI ). This uranyl (UO 2 2+ ) species is coordinated with carbonate, iron oxide, silicate and phosphate minerals within cemented white to yellow precipitates, which contain U concentrations as high as ∼21.6 % by weight fraction. Identifying the presence of these mineral phases, enables a further understanding of the potential effectiveness of remediation actions. The combination of methodologies presented here can also be applied to other explorations, such as the detection of water supply.

Fate and transport↗

DOE OSTI2022

EMP Testing of UL489 Circuit Breakers

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is performing a test campaign for the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER) to address high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) vulnerability of critical components of generation stations, with focus on early-time (E1) HEMP. The campaign seeks to establish response and damage thresholds for these critical elements in response to reasonable HEMP threat levels as a means for determining where vulnerabilities may exist or where mitigations may be needed. This report provides component vulnerability test results that will help to inform site vulnerability assessments and HEMP mitigation planning.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating Changes in Freshwater Health in the Tonlé Sap Basin using Remotely Sensed Data

The Tonlé Sap lake and river basin provide freshwater resources to about 4.5 million people in central Cambodia. Accelerating dam construction, intensifying agriculture, deforestation, and changing climate patterns threaten the health of the lake and the food security of nearby communities. NASA DEVELOP collaborated with Conservation International to calculate multiple components of the ecosystem vitality indicator of the Freshwater Health Index for Tonlé Sap lake from 2000 – 2020 using remote sensing. Landcover classifications, lake level altimetry, groundwater storage and nutrient flows were derived from multiple satellites including Landsat 5, Landsat 7, Landsat 8, Sentinel-2, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM)mission, and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Additionally, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to analyze nutrient flow and water quality in the basin. A breakdown in the volume and regularity of annual lake levels from 2000-2020 was observed, reflecting increased pressure on water supply and agricultural productivity. A decrease in landcover naturalness was also observed and at least 8% of forested areas in the basin were lost while rice harvest intensity increased throughout the study period. Additionally, an initial water quality analysis was demonstrated using SWAT. Continued collaboration with Conservation International and local representatives will guide the remaining water quality analyses and allow them to make informed decisions regarding freshwater management and resource allocation in the Tonlé Sap lake and river basin.

Adriana Le Compte↗

NASA NTRS2007

Simulating Operations at a Spaceport

SPACESIM is a computer program for detailed simulation of operations at a spaceport. SPACESIM is being developed to greatly improve existing spaceports and to aid in designing, building, and operating future spaceports, given that there is a worldwide trend in spaceport operations from very expensive, research- oriented launches to more frequent commercial launches. From an operational perspective, future spaceports are expected to resemble current airports and seaports, for which it is necessary to resolve issues of safety, security, efficient movement of machinery and people, cost effectiveness, timeliness, and maximizing effectiveness in utilization of resources. Simulations can be performed, for example, to (1) simultaneously analyze launches of reusable and expendable rockets and identify bottlenecks arising from competition for limited resources or (2) perform what-if scenario analyses to identify optimal scenarios prior to making large capital investments. SPACESIM includes an object-oriented discrete-event-simulation engine. (Discrete- event simulation has been used to assess processes at modern seaports.) The simulation engine is built upon the Java programming language for maximum portability. Extensible Markup Language (XML) is used for storage of data to enable industry-standard interchange of data with other software. A graphical user interface facilitates creation of scenarios and analysis of data.

Nevins, Michael R.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Biorefinery siting and sizing to achieve the US Billion‐Ton Bioeconomy vision: A case study using a gasification–Fischer–Tropsch process

Achieving a secure, abundant, and affordable energy future requires a robust and adaptable energy strategy, with bioenergy playing a pivotal role. Biomass-based energy presents a promising pathway to use domestic resources while fostering economic opportunities in rural areas. Despite the potential to source more than 1 billion dry short tons of biomass annually in the US, significant infrastructure and economic barriers hinder full utilization for energy production. This study used the Biofuel Infrastructure, Logistics, and Transportation (BILT) model to assess biorefinery siting and scale and determine the number and size of facilities required to maximize use of the US biomass potential. A spatially agnostic approach first assessed the effects of facility capacity and transportation constraints on biomass use. Then, a spatially explicit analysis integrated county-level biomass availability from the US Department of Energy's 2023 Billion-Ton Report and technoeconomic assessments to evaluate different biorefinery deployment scenarios. The results indicate that an optimized mix of facility sizes is essential to leverage biomass resources fully across varying regional production densities to maximize use of the US biomass potential. Larger biorefineries or co-located smaller facilities significantly enhance biomass use while reducing costs through economies of scale. These findings underscore the importance of strategically balancing facility capacity and spatial distribution to optimize the bioenergy supply chain. In conclusion, this study provides critical insights for advancing the US bioenergy economy by aligning biorefinery deployment with biomass resource availability and economic viability.

BILT Model↗

DOE OSTI2025

Staged Z-Pinch Modeling with Hydra and Chicago Codes (CRADA Final Report)

This was a collaborative effort between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC (“Contractor”), as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (“LLNL”) and Magneto Inertial Fusion Technologies, Inc. ("MIFTI" or "Participant"), to develop staged Z-pinch (SZP) modeling with HYDRA and CHICAGO codes. The contractor performed numerical simulations of the SZP to reproduce and validate Participant’s MACH2 simulations. Contractor used the state-of-the-art, radiation-magneto-hydrodynamic code HYDRA, as well as the hybrid particle-in-cell code CHICAGO. This work helped assess the physical and numerical uncertainties associated with the simulations and the overall fusion scheme. HYDRA is a well-established and validated code. This work has helped to independently assess the SZP concept to give confidence to the Participant and to the broader fusion community.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A geospatial risk analysis graphical user interface for identifying hazardous chemical emission sources

Background: Performing back trajectory and forward trajectory using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) is a reliable approach for assessing particle transport after release among mid-field atmospheric models. HYSPLIT has an externally facing online interface that allows non-expert users to run the model trajectories without requiring extensive training or programming. However, the existing HYSPLIT interface is limited if simulations have a large amount of meteorological data and timesteps that are not coincident. The objective of this study is to design and develop a more robust tool to rapidly evaluate hazard transport conditions and to perform risk analysis, while still maintaining an intuitive and user-friendly interface. Methods: HYSPLIT calculates forward and backward trajectories of particles based on wind speed, wind direction, and the corresponding location, timestamp, and Pasquill stability classes of the regions of the atmosphere in terms of the wind speed, the amount of solar radiation, and the fractional cloud cover. The computed particle transport trajectories, combined with the online Proton Transfer Reaction-Mass Spectrometry (PTR-MS) data (https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/ARL_Data_from_PROS_station_at_Hanford_site/19993964), can be used to identify and quantify the sources and affected area of the hazardous chemicals’ emission using the potential source distribution function (PSDF). PSDF is an improved statistical function based on the well-known potential source contribution function (PSCF) in establishing the air pollutant source and receptor relationship. Performing this analysis requires a range of meteorological and pollutant concentration measurements to be statistically meaningful. The existing HYSPLIT graphical user interface (GUI) does not easily permit computations of trajectories of a dataset of meteorological data in high temporal frequency. To improve the performance of HYSPLIT computations from a large dataset and enhance risk analysis of the accidental release of material at risk, a geospatial risk analysis tool (GRAT-GUI) is created to allow large data sets to be processed instantaneously and to provide ease of visualization. Results: The GRAT-GUI is a native desktop-based application and can be run in any Windows 10 system without any internet access requirements, thus providing a secure way to process large meteorological datasets even on a standalone computer. GRAT-GUI has features to import, integrate, and convert meteorological data with various formats for hazardous chemical emission source identification and risk analysis as a self-explanatory user interface. The tool is available at https://figshare.com/articles/software/GRAT/19426742.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Reactor Supply Chain Assessment (GAIN Report)

Several net-zero scenario evaluations predict a rapid ramp up of nuclear energy in the coming decades. If this materializes, it will most likely strain the supply chains associated with the potential advanced reactor concepts awaiting deployment. To help assess the current and potential capacities of the various advanced reactor supply chains, the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) conducted a survey of companies able to produce components for advanced reactors in the near future (namely for sodium, gas-cooled, and molten salt reactors). Using an aggressive nuclear deployment scenario, the objective was to assess the ability of the various supply chains to meet the considerable demand projections for certain key components (vessels, heat exchangers, pumps, graphite, and sensors) and identify potential challenges. While individual companies were unable to meet the most optimistic nuclear deployment rate projections, it was found that on aggregate, a United States-based supply chain projected that expansion could be ramped up to meet a larger future demand of these components. However, meeting projected demand for several more complex items (namely gas or salt heat exchangers) was found to be more challenging. Deploying new reactors at scale necessitates the production of more and more supply chain components, requiring a ramp up in production. Supply chain companies were surveyed, and respondents appeared less able to meet short term demand (next year) versus longer-term demand projections (5 and 10 years). This reflects the need to obtain orders with adequate lead times (can range from 3 to 30 months). Future demand will need to be met by expanding existing capacity. These expansions will require suppliers to raise capital or secure other types of support (federal loans or grants) to invest in facilities, equipment, and workforce. Individual suppliers indicated financial investments could be in the range of $\$ $100 million to $\$ $1 billion for their own facilities (depending on the type of facility). The biggest risk, according to respondents, related to general uncertainties surrounding the future nuclear industry and whether the potential demand projections will materialize into real demand that is actionable from a business perspective. Businesses do not seem willing to take investments risks without clear orders. If businesses are not able to invest to expand the supply, it will either delay the deployment of advanced nuclear technology, or the supply chain will be met by suppliers outside of the United States. This report only focuses on the domestic supply chain’s ability to meet the various projections stipulated here for the specific assessed components (vessels, heat exchangers, pumps, graphite, and sensors). The report does not cover all reactor designs or all components that may ultimately be needed for any one reactor design. It also does not address whether any specific aspect of the supply chain will be cost competitive in the global market, nor how potential state-backed entities could affect the expansion of a United States-based supply chain. The largest challenges in ramping up capacity among respondents appear to be workforce related. This includes workforce availability, experience, training, and turnover. In addition to facility investment, suppliers will also need to invest heavily in long-term workforce training to meet production goals. This issue is not nuclear-specific, and the expansion of any supply chain will likely face similar challenges. While suppliers evaluated expected normal business demand from other markets outside of nuclear, it is possible that other market segments could expand more than predicted and compete for the same suppliers. One potential market that may compete for the same supplier resources is the United States military, as many of these suppliers support both the commercial nuclear sector as well as the Navy with reactors and components. In summary, suppliers in the United States believe that there is a way to increase production in order to begin meeting the demand which will exist for advanced reactors—as long as appropriate investments can be made in the supply chain in an appropriate timeframe. Based on the capacity projections and lead times, investment will be needed to meet the 5-year and 10-year production targets. Therefore, if significant nuclear deployment is to occur in the 2030s, investment and ramp up of the advanced nuclear supply chain will need to begin in the near future for the United States to successfully deploy these advanced reactors with domestic supply chains.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2018

Government Microelectronics Assessment for Trust (GOMAT)

NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) is developing a process to be employed in critical applications. The framework assesses levels of trust and assurance in microelectronic systems. The process is being created with participation from a variety of organizations. We present a synopsis of the framework that includes contributions from The Aerospace Corporation.

Assurance↗