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DOE OSTI2025

Jipole: A Differentiable ipole-based Code for Radiative Transfer in Curved Spacetimes

Recent imaging of supermassive black holes by the Event Horizon Telescope has relied on exhaustive parameter-space searches, matching observations to large, precomputed libraries of theoretical models. As observational data become increasingly precise, the limitations of this computationally expensive approach grow more acute, creating a pressing need for more efficient methods. In this work, we present Jipole, an automatically differentiable (AD), ipole-based code for radiative transfer in curved spacetimes, designed to compute image gradients with respect to underlying model parameters. These gradients quantify how parameter changes—such as the black hole’s spin or the observer’s inclination—affect the image, enabling more efficient parameter estimation and reducing the number of required images. We validate Jipole against ipole in two analytical tests and then compare pixelwise intensity derivatives from AD with those from finite-difference methods. We then demonstrate the utility of these gradients by performing parameter recovery for an analytical model in three increasingly complex cases for the injected image: ideal, blurred, and blurred with added noise. In most cases, high-accuracy fits are obtained in only a few optimization steps, failing only in cases with extremely low signal-to-noise ratios. These results highlight the potential of AD-based methods to accelerate robust, high-fidelity model-data comparisons in current and future black hole imaging efforts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model validation and selection in metabolic flux analysis and flux balance analysis

13C-Metabolic Flux Analysis (13C-MFA) and Flux Balance Analysis (FBA) are widely used to investigate the operation of biochemical networks in both biological and biotechnological research. Both methods use metabolic reaction network models of metabolism operating at steady state so that reaction rates (fluxes) and the levels of metabolic intermediates are constrained to be invariant. They provide estimated (MFA) or predicted (FBA) values of the fluxes through the network in vivo, which cannot be measured directly. These fluxes can shed light on basic biology and have been successfully used to inform metabolic engineering strategies. Several approaches have been taken to test the reliability of estimates and predictions from constraint-based methods and to compare alternative model architectures. Despite advances in other areas of the statistical evaluation of metabolic models, such as the quantification of flux estimate uncertainty, validation and model selection methods have been underappreciated and underexplored. We review the history and state-of-the-art in constraint-based metabolic model validation and model selection. Applications and limitations of the χ 2 -test of goodness-of-fit, the most widely used quantitative validation and selection approach in 13C-MFA, are discussed, and complementary and alternative forms of validation and selection are proposed. A combined model validation and selection framework for 13C-MFA incorporating metabolite pool size information that leverages new developments in the field is presented and advocated for. Finally, we discuss how adopting robust validation and selection procedures can enhance confidence in constraint-based modeling as a whole and ultimately facilitate more widespread use of FBA in biotechnology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Aerodynamic Data Fusion Toward the Digital Twin Paradigm

This paper considers the fusion of two aerodynamic data sets originating from differing types of physical or computer experiments. This paper specifically addresses the fusion of 1) noisy and in-complete fields from wind-tunnel measurements and 2) deterministic but biased fields from numerical simulations. These two data sources are fused in order to estimate the true field that best matches measured quantities that serve as the ground truth. For example, two sources of pressure fields about an aircraft are fused based on measured forces and moments from a wind-tunnel experiment. A fundamental challenge in this problem is that the true field is unknown and cannot be estimated with 100% certainty. A Bayesian framework is employed to infer the true fields conditioned on measured quantities of interest; essentially a statistical correction to the data is performed. The fused data may then be used to construct more accurate surrogate models suitable for early stages of aerospace design. An extension of the proper orthogonal decomposition with constraints is also introduced to solve the same problem. In this work, both methods are demonstrated on fusing the pressure distributions for flow past the RAE2822 airfoil and the Common Research Model wing at transonic conditions. Comparison of both methods reveals that the Bayesian method is more robust when data are scarce and capable of also accounting for uncertainties in the data. Furthermore, given adequate data, the proper-orthogonal-decomposition-based and Bayesian approaches lead to surprisingly similar results.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation for Robust UQ Within Agent-Based Simulation on HPC Systems

Agent-based simulation provides a powerful tool for in silico system modeling. However, these simulations do not provide built-in methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Within these types of models a typical approach to UQ is to run multiple realizations of the model then compute aggregate statistics. This approach is limited due to the compute time required for a solution. When faced with an emerging biothreat, public health decisions need to be made quickly and solutions for integrating near real-time data with analytic tools are needed. We propose an integrated Bayesian UQ framework for agent-based models based on sequential Monte Carlo sampling. Given streaming or static data about the evolution of an emerging pathogen this Bayesian framework provides a distribution over the parameters governing the spread of a disease through a population. These estimates of the spread of a disease may be provided to public health agencies seeking to abate the spread. By coupling agent-based simulations with Bayesian modeling in a data assimilation, our proposed framework provides a powerful tool for modeling dynamical systems in silico. We propose a method which reduces model error and provides a range of realistic possible outcomes. Moreover, our method addresses two primary limitations of ABMs: the lack of UQ and an inability to assimilate data. Our proposed framework combines the flexibility of an agent-based model with UQ provided by the Bayesian paradigm in a workflow which scales well to HPC systems. We provide algorithmic details and results on a simulated outbreak with both static and streaming data.

Spannaus, Adam [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000225213657)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Knowledge spillovers between PV installers can reduce the cost of installing solar PV

We analyze pricing in PV systems using data from 2008-2014 to identify the effects of knowledge spillovers in reducing the installed cost of PV. This paper estimates the size of the effects of learning by doing and knowledge spillovers using multiple formulations of spillover related variables. We found knowledge spillovers between firms within a county to be a significant and substantial factor in reducing the costs of PV. However, these spillovers reduce costs only for firms over a certain size threshold, and no cost-reducing spillovers were found for smaller installers. Geographic spillovers, within a firm from one county to another were also significant although not as large as the local between-firm effects. We ran 43 specifications on the data and generally found these main results to be robust, although not in every specification. One implication of these results is that policies that subsidize demand for PV are leading to the creation of new knowledge that would not exist at lower levels of demand. Furthermore, that the spillovers become stronger at higher levels of experience suggests that these subsidies would need to be substantial, particularly in new markets with many small firms.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

HighDimMixedModels.jl: Robust high-dimensional mixed-effects models across omics data

High-dimensional mixed-effects models are an increasingly important form of regression in which the number of covariates rivals or exceeds the number of samples, which are collected in groups or clusters. The penalized likelihood approach to fitting these models relies on a coordinate descent algorithm that lacks guarantees of convergence to a global optimum. Here, we empirically study the behavior of this algorithm on simulated and real examples of three types of data that are common in modern biology: transcriptome, genome-wide association, and microbiome data. Our simulations provide new insights into the algorithm’s behavior in these settings, and, comparing the performance of two popular penalties, we demonstrate that the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty consistently outperforms the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty in terms of both variable selection and estimation accuracy across omics data. To empower researchers in biology and other fields to fit models with the SCAD penalty, we implement the algorithm in a Julia package, HighDimMixedModels.jl .

Gorstein, Evan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty in Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Hazard and Risk Estimates: Insights from RAFT, CHAZ, MIT, STORM, and CLIMADA

We synthesize five complementary tropical cyclone (TC) hazard frameworks—RAFT (physics-based machine learning), CHAZ and MIT (statistical–dynamical), STORM (fully statistical), and CLIMADA (observation-driven resampling)—to characterize uncertainty in wind-related TC metrics relevant to energy applications. All datasets and the IBTrACS observational record are harmonized to a common 6-hourly, 2.5° grid. We compare basin-wide and coastal properties using consistent definitions for TC frequency, mean and maximum intensity, 24-hour intensification, and 6-hour translation speed, and quantify agreement with Pearson r, RMSE, and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) alongside resampling-based confidence intervals. CLIMADA is included for basin context but excluded from coastal skill scoring because it resamples historical IBTrACS; if supplied with projected future tracks from an external hazard model, CLIMADA can be used to simulate future TC scenarios. Results show robust, cross-model signals: (i) a corridor of activity from the tropical Atlantic through the Caribbean into the Bahamas and western subtropical Atlantic; (ii) a meridional dipole in 24-hour intensification (low-latitude strengthening, subtropical weakening); and (iii) a transition from slower tropical motion to faster midlatitude translation. Coastal winds (mean and maximum) consistently cluster from the eastern Gulf into the Bahamas–western Atlantic transition. The largest structural spread occurs in the amplitude and footprint of lifetime maximum intensity and, secondarily, in translation speed; intensification exhibits similar central behavior across frameworks with variability in extremes. Translation speed shows the most uniform coastal agreement. These findings provide a decision envelope for wind-focused risk screening and clarify where uncertainty should be carried forward; wind-only results represent a lower bound on total hazard, motivating integration of surge and rainfall modules and a companion, asset-level damage analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Behavioral Robotics Approach to Radiation Mapping Using Adaptive Sampling

Radiation mapping is a desirable task to automate because of the inherent risks involved and its tedious nature. A novel system was designed to address this by combining various existing technologies, utilizing behavior-based robotics and Bayesian optimization. The system uses a quadruped robot equipped with a manipulator and gamma detector to take measurements at locations that are selected based on the uncertainty of a surrogate model used to estimate the true radiation field. The robot uses input from the world with depth cameras to avoid collisions with the robot’s body, and unreachable points for the end effector are addressed by both allowing for a soft collision with the environment to occur, prompting the system to abandon that point, and varying the exploration tendency of the optimization based on consecutive collisions. This approach provides unique traversability and adaptability over other strategies in the literature. Experiments were performed by placing a Cesium-137 source on the ground and varying geometric setups and an optimization parameter demonstrating the adaptability to diverse environments and the increased robustness resulting from the designed behavior. The results additionally demonstrate that dynamically adjusting the optimization algorithm’s exploration tendency based on the arm’s collision history improves the system’s ability to navigate cluttered environments and construct accurate radiation maps without getting stuck in unreachable areas.

Adams, Joel↗

DOE OSTI2025

Refining T c Prediction in Hydrides via Symbolic‐Regression‐Enhanced Electron‐Localization‐Function‐Based Descriptors

Hydrogen‐based materials are able to possess extremely high superconducting critical temperatures, T c s , due to hydrogen's low atomic mass and strong electron–phonon interaction. Recently, a descriptor based on the Electron Localization Function (ELF) has enabled the rapid estimation of the T c of hydrogen‐containing compounds from electronic networking properties, but its applicability has been limited by the small size and homogeneity of the training dataset used. Herein, the model is re‐examined, compiling a publicly available combined dataset of 244 binary and ternary hydride superconductors. The analysis shows that though ELF‐based networking remains a valuable descriptor, its predictive power declines with increasing compositional complexity. However, by introducing the molecularity index, defined as the highest value of the ELF at which two hydrogen atoms connect, and applying symbolic regression, the accuracy of the predictions can be substantially enhanced. These results establish a more robust framework for assessing superconductivity in hydride materials, facilitating accelerated screening of novel candidates through integration with crystal structure prediction methods or high‐throughput searches.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Genetic mapping of sugarcane aphid resistance in sorghum line SC112-14

Sugarcane aphid [Melanaphis sacchari (Zehntner)] is a destructive pest that has had an economic effect on sorghum in North America since 2013. The identification, development, and use of resistant sorghum germplasm is the most feasible strategy to control the pest. Nevertheless, the genetic control of sugarcane aphid (SCA) resistance is unknown for most sorghum resistant lines. To identify the genetic regions that confer SCA resistance in sorghum line SC112-14, 103 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) derived by its cross with the susceptible line PI 609251 were evaluated for their SCA resistance response in Georgia during two consecutive years. The resistance response was determined based on two ratings (2 wk apart) for aphid population size (APS) and aphid-induced plant damage (APD) each year. Segregation for SCA resistance was observed for the first APS and both APD ratings, and the broad-sense heritability estimate ranged from .71 to .76, respectively. A quantitative trait locus analysis using a high-density linkage map of 3,852 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) detected an 81-kb genomic region on chromosome 6 that explained 50–55% of the phenotypic variation. Comparative mapping analysis found that the resistance locus in SC112-14 is located 8- and 10-cM upstream of the Henong 16 (RMES1) and Tx2783 resistance loci, respectively, and encloses the SNP Sbv3.1_06_2316351 associated in Haitian resistant lines. Therefore, the line SC112-14 is an additional SCA resistance source that can be combined or strategically used with other resistance sources to assure a more robust host plant resistance to the SCA.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Gulf of Mexico Offshore Wind Energy Hurricane Risk Assessment

NREL's feasibility assessment of offshore wind in the Gulf of Mexico concluded that hurricane risk was one of the major challenges that would need to be overcome for a mature offshore wind industry to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. To ensure the robust design of wind turbines in the Gulf of Mexico, it is critical to understand the added risk posed by the threat of major hurricanes, as those affecting the Gulf of Mexico region have a significant potential to exceed design limits prescribed by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) wind design standards. To satisfy this charge, this project defines the wind hazard for the Gulf of Mexico Offshore Wind Energy area using the hurricane hazard model develop by Applied Research Associates and published extensively in the open literature. In doing so, the return periods associated with the IEC Class 1A and Typhoon Class limit-state hurricanes are estimated on a grid with nominal resolution of 10 km to determine where hurricane risk results in the exceedance of the IEC design criteria. On the same grid, wind speeds hazard contours associated with return periods varying from 50 to 1,000 years are also estimated. An additional challenge in assessing hurricane wind speed risk in the Gulf of Mexico arises from inconsistent terminology across the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale and the IEC design criteria. Saffir-Simpson definitions are based on 1-minute sustained wind speeds estimated at 10-m height over marine terrain, while the IEC uses a different averaging period (3-second versus 1-minute) and reference height (assumed herein a hub height of 150 m versus 10 m). Employing the latest research on turbulence characteristics of the hurricane boundary layer, conversions between various durations (e.g., 3-seconds, 1-minute, 10-minutes, 1-hour) and between elevations near the surface (10 m) to near hub height (assumed herein 150 m) are developed. IEC Class 1A and Typhoon Class limit states are also provided in terms of an equivalent Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind speed category.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Wellbore Fracture Imaging Using Inflow Detection Measurements

One of the most striking measurements taken during DOE’s EGS Collab project at the 4850-foot depth location was the so-called ‘sewer cam’, which enabled direct visualization of the flow of water into the production well through fractures during the stimulation. The ability to see directly which fractures were flowing and (roughly) how much was a breakthrough in understanding the topology of the created fracture network. Achieving this kind of fracture flow imaging at FORGE would be more challenging because of the 225°C temperature, but equally or even more valuable if it could be achieved. In 2017, a joint project between Sandia and Stanford developed a downhole tool concept to measure the enthalpy of multiphase fluid entering a geothermal well from individual fractures (Gao et al., 2017). For the FORGE project, measuring enthalpy is of less interest because the fluid is expected to be single-phase liquid water. However, the foundation of the device was the measurement of chloride ion concentration, which could form the basis for a direct measurement of inflow from fractures. During the 2017 project, this novel chloride sensing system was implemented into a laboratory test instrument, and we confirmed the capability of the system to measure the ion concentration of fluid entering a model wellbore through a small entry port. The wellbore was a 6-inch diameter model well, and the port was approximately 0.08 inch (2mm) in diameter. The device could measure the chloride concentration accurately even when the well was flowing in a bubbly flow. Given its accuracy, the tool should be able to identify locations of water entering the wellbore even if the ion concentration differs only slightly from that of the water in the well. It is likely that different fractures may flow slightly different chloride concentrations, which would make it feasible to detect individual fractures as well as to estimate the volume of their flow. Ultimately, we could also recognize different fractures flowing back significantly different ion concentrations after fracturing in the FORGE wells. This could be realized by adding different ions in the fracturing fluids in different fractures created at different stages of stimulation (and modifying the tool to include different ion specificity). Sandia’s tool was shown during the study to have the capability to withstand the 225°C temperature, and the electrochemical sensing elements were tested in the laboratory to 225°C at 1500 psia for 24 hours. An early implementation of the fully integrated downhole electrochemical tool, including high-temperature electronics, robust housing, and wireline truck interface, had previously been constructed and tested successfully at Sandia; thus, hardware development tasks focused on advancing the technology readiness level (TRL) of this promising technology for FORGE deployment, rather than on developing a new scientific basis for its operation. The data collection electronics in this tool allowed for several other sensors (pressure, temperature, flow spinner) to be implemented in parallel as well. The research was a new collaboration between Stanford and Sandia to modify and refine the tool for FORGE deployment, to make the downhole measurements, and to characterize the evolving fractures.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ch3MS-RF: a random forest model for chemical characterization and improved quantification of unidentified atmospheric organics detected by chromatography–mass spectrometry techniques

Abstract. The chemical composition of ambient organic aerosols plays a critical role in driving their climate and health-relevant properties and holds important clues to the sources and formation mechanisms of secondary aerosol material. In most ambient atmospheric environments, this composition remains incompletely characterized, with the number of identifiable species consistently outnumbered by those that have no mass spectral matches in the literature or the National Institute of Standards and Technology/National Institutes of Health/Environmental Protection Agency (NIST/NIH/EPA) mass spectral databases, making them nearly impossible to definitively identify. This creates significant challenges in utilizing the full analytical capabilities of techniques which separate and generate spectra for complex environmental samples. In this work, we develop the use of machine learning techniques to quantify and characterize novel, or unidentifiable, organic material. This work introduces Ch3MS-RF (Chemical Characterization by Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry Random Forest Modeling), an open-source, R-based software tool, for efficient machine-learning-enabled characterization of compounds separated in chromatography–mass spectrometry applications but not identifiable by comparison to mass spectral databases. A random forest model is trained and tested on a known 130 component representative external standard to predict the response factors of novel environmental organics based on position in volatility–polarity space and mass spectrum, enabling the reproducible, efficient, and optimized quantification of novel environmental species. Quantification accuracy on a reserved 20 % test set randomly split from the external standard compound list indicates that random forest modeling significantly outperforms the commonly used methods in both precision and accuracy, with a median response factor percent error of −2 %, for modeled response factors, compared to > 15 %, for typically used proxy assignment-based methods. Chemical properties modeling, evaluated on the same reserved 20 % test set and an extrapolation set of species identified in ambient organic aerosol samples collected in the Amazon rainforest, also demonstrate robust performance. Extrapolation set property prediction mean absolute errors for carbon number, oxygen to carbon ratio (O : C), average carbon oxidation state (OSc‾), and vapor pressure are 1.8, 0.15, 0.25, and 1.0 (log(atm)), respectively. Extrapolation set out-of-sample R2 for all properties modeled are above 0.75, with the exception of vapor pressure. While predictive performance for vapor pressure is less robust compared to the other chemical properties modeled, random-forest-based modeling was significantly more accurate than other commonly used methods of vapor pressure prediction, decreasing the mean vapor pressure prediction error to 0.24 (log(atm)) from 0.55 (log(atm)) (chromatography-based vapor pressure prediction) and 1.2 (log(atm)) (chemical formula-based vapor pressure prediction). The random forest model significantly advances an untargeted analysis of the full scope of chemical speciation yielded by two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC-MS) techniques and can be applied to gas chromatography coupled with electron ionization mass spectrometry (GC-MS) as well. It enables the accurate estimation of key chemical properties commonly utilized in the atmospheric chemistry community, which may be used to more efficiently identify important tracers for further individual analysis and to characterize compound populations uniquely formed under specific ambient conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Revised monthly energy generation estimates for 1,500 hydroelectric power plants in the United States

Abstract The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) conducts a regular survey (form EIA-923) to collect annual and monthly net generation for more than ten thousand U.S. power plants. Approximately 90% of the ~1,500 hydroelectric plants included in this data release are surveyed at annual resolution only and thus lack actual observations of monthly generation. For each of these plants, EIA imputes monthly generation values using the combined monthly generating pattern of other hydropower plants within the corresponding census division. The imputation method neglects local hydrology and reservoir operations, rendering the monthly data unsuitable for various research applications. Here we present an alternative approach to disaggregate each unobserved plant’s reported annual generation using proxies of monthly generation—namely historical monthly reservoir releases and average river discharge rates recorded downstream of each dam. Evaluation of the new dataset demonstrates substantial and robust improvement over the current imputation method, particularly if reservoir release data are available. The new dataset—named RectifHyd—provides an alternative to EIA-923 for U.S. scale, plant-level, monthly hydropower net generation (2001–2020). RectifHyd may be used to support power system studies or analyze within-year hydropower generation behavior at various spatial scales.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Is the Local Ion Density Sufficient to Drive NaCl Nucleation from the Melt and Aqueous Solution?

Even though nucleation is ubiquitous in different science and engineering problems, investigating nucleation is extremely difficult due to the complicated ranges of time and length scales involved. In this work, we simulate NaCl nucleation in both molten and aqueous environments using enhanced sampling of all-atom molecular dynamics with deep-learning-based estimation of reaction coordinates. By incorporating various structural order parameters and learning the reaction coordinate as a function thereof, we achieve significantly improved sampling relative to traditional ad hoc descriptions of what drives nucleation, particularly in an aqueous medium. Our results reveal a one-step nucleation mechanism in both environments, with reaction coordinate analysis highlighting the importance of local ion density in distinguishing solid and liquid states. However, although fluctuations in the local ion density are necessary to drive nucleation, they are not sufficient. Our analysis shows that near the transition states, descriptors such as enthalpy and local structure become crucial. Furthermore, our protocol proposed here enables robust nucleation analysis and phase sampling and could offer insights into nucleation mechanisms for generic small molecules in different environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Synthetic Evaluation of Infrasonic Multipole Waveform Inversion

Acoustic source inversions estimate the mass flow rate of volcanic explosions or yield of chemical explosions and provide insight into potential source directionality. However, the limitations of applying these methods to complex sources and their ability to resolve a stable solution have not been investigated in detail. We perform synthetic infrasound waveform inversions that use 3-D Green’s functions for a variety of idealized and realistic deployment scenarios using both a flat plane and Yasur volcano, Vanuatu as examples. We investigate the ability of various scenarios to retrieve the input source functions and relative amplitudes for monopole and multipole (monopole and dipole) inversions. Infrasound waveform inversions appear to be a robust method to quantify mass flow rates from simple sources (monopole) using deployments of infrasound sensors placed around a source, but care should be taken when analyzing and interpreting results from more complex acoustic sources (multipole) that have significant directional components. In the examples we consider the solution is stable for monopole inversions with a signal-to-noise ratio greater than five and the dipole component is small. For most scenarios investigated, the vertical dipole component of the multipole explosion source is poorly constrained and can impact the ability to recover the other source term components. Because multipole inversions are ill-posed for many deployments, a low residual does not necessarily mean the proper source vector has been recovered. Synthetic studies are able to help investigate the limitations and place bounds on information that may be missing using monopole and multipole inversions for potentially directional sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Irradiation-induced gas production in REBCO-based magnet materials used for future compact fusion reactors

Nuclear fusion is an enticing alternative to current sources of energy, with multilayered Rare-Earth Barium Copper Oxide (REBCO) coated conductors deemed pivotal in the race toward fully realized, commercially viable, and magnetic confinement fusion reactors. In this study, we simulated the ion spectrum expected to evolve from REBCO's nickel-based Hastelloy C-276 substrate and copper stabilizer in an affordable robust compact-like reactor. We then emulated this gas production through helium implantation to investigate changes in materials and superconducting properties. Our results revealed that the substrate and stabilizer are capable of producing protons energetic enough to recoil throughout the tape thickness in appreciable doses, and alphas energetic enough to deposit 7.54 × 1014 ions/cm2 or 50.1 helium appm in the superconducting layer over a 30-year reactor lifetime. The superconducting layer of SuperPower® tapes exhibited at least double the swelling rate of the other major layers, and both SuperPower and Fujikura Ltd. tapes displayed microstructural changes in the REBCO layer not observed in isotropic metals. For the estimated lifetime fluence, the Fujikura tapes showed a ∼1 K reduction in critical temperature and a 32% degradation in critical current for compact reactor-relevant conditions (16 T, 20 K). Nuclear transmutation, low-temperature solder implantations, gas-ion evolution, the influence of gas production on vortex dynamics, and other related considerations are also discussed.

Reis, Chris↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nonparametric Multiparticle Set Methods for Interpreting Environmental Samples

Collection and analysis of environmental samples is commonly used by a range of stakeholders in nuclear safeguards and security contexts. While the ubiquity of samples and their transport in the environment allow regular collection, developing and demonstrating methods for analyzing these samples is difficult. In this work, an environmental sample consists of a set of one or more individual particles. Recent advances in reactor simulation have allowed us to generate data that are more representative of real-world environmental samples, enabling statistically defensible method development and testing. The most notable of these advances is a drastic increase in the number of material depletion regions, which allows our simulations to capture the variation in isotopic composition seen at length scales consistent with environmental samples. Traditional approaches for handling multiparticle samples treat each particle in the sample individually, estimating the quantity of interest (e.g., core-average burnup) resulting from measurement and analysis of signatures (e.g., nuclide assays) from each individual particle. Individual estimates are then averaged to generate a single estimate of the quantity of interest over the entire sample. In this presentation, we introduce two novel approaches for interpreting environmental samples that comprise of multiple particles: (1) the Quantile-Quantile Comparator, which uses a multivariate generalization of quantile-quantile plots for comparing unknown statistical distributions, and (2) the Set Transformer, an attention-based neural network module designed to model interactions among elements (particles) in the input set (sample). Statistically representative sampling cannot be guaranteed as samples are passively collected and are beholden to what particles are available in the environment. These new analysis methods for set-input problems are expected to be more robust than traditional approaches to issues of sampling bias where particles are not uniformly distributed throughout regions of interest, as well as generally outperform traditional approaches by jointly considering all elements in the set. We will present results comparing the performance of traditional single particle approaches and the novel Quantile-Quantile Comparator and Set Transformer for interpretation of simulated environmental samples.

Phathanapirom, Birdy↗