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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 919 records · Page 51
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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bridging current indirect and future direct estimates of convective mass flux toward quantifying the role of convective cores on anvil area time tendencies

Anvil cloud spatial extent is strongly driven by convective mass flux. However, the lack of convective mass flux observations precludes global analyses of the functional relationship between anvil cloud area growth tendencies and convective areal coverage and vertical mass flux. Partly informed by analyses of a hierarchy of WRF mesoscale convective system (MCS) simulations, in this presentation, we discuss new work on estimating convective mass flux by way of an approach that casts the problem of quantifying convective mass flux into terms related to diabatic heating vertical structure, convective area and tropospheric stability. We demonstrate the usefulness of this approach at the MCS spatial scale via development of a simple, robust model that analytically connects system-scale convective mass flux and anvil cloud area growth rates. We show that the model predicts anvil area size changes in agreement with those observed in a global convective system tracking database (TOOCAN). An additional advantage of this approach for estimating convective mass flux is that it bridges future satellite mission plans for directly observing convective mass flux (e.g., AOS) with longer-record observations made by TRMM, GPM and satellite sounder mission data (the latter used for estimating stability) that, when combined, can be used for inferring convective mass fluxes at the MCS spatial scale spanning slowly changing, diverse environments. An evaluation and bridging of both direct and indirect approaches supports convective process analyses varying over longer time periods in this “era of convection.”

convective mass flux↗
DOE OSTI2021

Individual and Collective Strategies to Limit the Impacts of Large Power Outages of Long Duration

As modern society becomes ever more dependent on the availability of electric power, the costs that could arise from individual and social vulnerability to large outages of long duration (LLD-outages) increases. During such an outage, even a small amount of power would be very valuable. Here, this article compares individual and collective strategies for providing limited amounts of electric power to residential customers in a hypothetical New England community during a large electric power outage of long duration. We develop estimates of the emergency load required for survival and assess the cost of strategies to address outages that last 5, 10, and 20 days in either winter or summer. We find that the cost of collective solutions could be as much as 10 to 40 times less than individual solutions (less than $2 per month per home). However, collective solutions would require community-wide coordination, and if local distribution system lines are destroyed, only individual back-up systems could provide contingency power until those lines are repaired. Costs might be reduced if more robust distributed generation were employed that could be operated continuously with the ability to sell power back to the grid. Our cost-effectiveness analysis only assesses what could be done, developing estimates of preparedness cost. A decision about what should be done would require additional input from a range of stakeholders as well as some form of analytical deliberative process.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Bayesian inferencing framework for ultrasound wave speed measurements in metal additive manufacturing

Process-related changes during metal additive manufacturing introduce microstructural variability in the material properties of printed parts, directly affecting component reliability. Accurate estimation of these property variations with part performance are essential for quality assurance. Ultrasound testing offers a non-destructive means to estimate mechanical properties and detect defects; however, conventional analysis methods often neglect the influence of microstructural variability, limiting their effectiveness. Here, this research presents a Bayesian inference technique for quantifying wave speed uncertainty from ultrasound measurements of metal additive manufactured parts. By integrating prior ultrasound data with a Bayesian model, the proposed approach generates posterior density estimates of wave speed that systematically account for manufacturing-induced variability and uncertainty. The novelty of this research lies in applying a Bayesian framework to analyze experimental ultrasound measurements within the context of metal additive manufacturing variability. The method enhances the accuracy of wave speed estimation by 64%, defect position by 50% and increases confidence associated with wave speed variance by 30% across different porosity levels, thereby providing a robust foundation for improved decision-making and increased reliability in additively manufactured components.

Additive manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends

Anthropogenically forced changes in ocean biogeochemistry are underway and critical for the ocean carbon sink and marine habitat. Detecting such changes in ocean biogeochemistry will require quantification of the magnitude of the change (anthropogenic signal) and the natural variability inherent to the climate system (noise). Here we use Large Ensemble (LE) experiments from four Earth system models (ESMs) with multiple emissions scenarios to estimate Time of Emergence (ToE) and partition projection uncertainty for anthropogenic signals in five biogeochemically important upper-ocean variables. We find ToEs are robust across ESMs for sea surface temperature and the invasion of anthropogenic carbon; emergence time scales are 20–30 yr. For the biological carbon pump, and sea surface chlorophyll and salinity, emergence time scales are longer (50+ yr), less robust across the ESMs, and more sensitive to the forcing scenario considered. We find internal variability uncertainty, and model differences in the internal variability uncertainty, can be consequential sources of uncertainty for projecting regional changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the coming decades. In combining structural, scenario, and internal variability uncertainty, this study represents the most comprehensive characterization of biogeochemical emergence time scales and uncertainty to date. Our findings delineate critical spatial and duration requirements for marine observing systems to robustly detect anthropogenic change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Proxy Reconstructions

A quantitative analysis of any environment older than the instrumental record relies on proxies. Uncertainties associated with proxy reconstructions are often underestimated, which can lead to artificial conflict between different proxies, and between data and models. In this paper, using ordinary least squares linear regression as a common example, we describe a simple, robust and generalizable method for quantifying uncertainty in proxy reconstructions. We highlight the primary controls on the magnitude of uncertainty, and compare this simple estimate to equivalent estimates from Bayesian, nonparametric and fiducial statistical frameworks. We discuss when it may be possible to reduce uncertainties, and conclude that the unexplained variance in the calibration must always feature in the uncertainty in the reconstruction. This directs future research toward explaining as much of the variance in the calibration data as possible. We also advocate for a “data-forward” approach, that clearly decouples the presentation of proxy data from plausible environmental inferences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Programmable Heisenberg interactions between Floquet qubits

Abstract The trade-off between robustness and tunability is a central challenge in the pursuit of quantum simulation and fault-tolerant quantum computation. In particular, quantum architectures are often designed to achieve high coherence at the expense of tunability. Many current qubit designs have fixed energy levels and consequently limited types of controllable interactions. Here by adiabatically transforming fixed-frequency superconducting circuits into modifiable Floquet qubits, we demonstrate an XXZ Heisenberg interaction with fully adjustable anisotropy. This interaction model can act as the primitive for an expressive set of quantum operations, but is also the basis for quantum simulations of spin systems. To illustrate the robustness and versatility of our Floquet protocol, we tailor the Heisenberg Hamiltonian and implement two-qubit iSWAP, CZ and SWAP gates with good estimated fidelities. In addition, we implement a Heisenberg interaction between higher energy levels and employ it to construct a three-qubit CCZ gate, also with a competitive fidelity. Our protocol applies to multiple fixed-frequency high-coherence platforms, providing a collection of interactions for high-performance quantum information processing. It also establishes the potential of the Floquet framework as a tool for exploring quantum electrodynamics and optimal control.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-cryogenic direct air capture using adsorbents

Direct air capture (DAC) of CO 2 is a key component in the portfolio of negative emissions technologies for mitigating global warming. However, even with the most potent amine sorbents, large-scale DAC deployment remains limited by high energy and capital costs. Recently, adsorbents relying on weak interactions with CO 2 have emerged as a potential alternative, thanks to their rapid adsorption kinetics and superior long-term stability, particularly under sub-ambient conditions (∼253 K). Despite these advantages, their use is hindered by the need for a water-removal process, location-specific constraints, and insufficient working capacity even in cold climates. In this study, we hypothesized that further reducing the adsorption temperature to a near-cryogenic range (160–220 K) could enable cost-effective DAC by utilizing the full potential of physisorbents. We primarily consider integrating DAC with a relatively untapped source of cold energy—liquified natural gas (LNG) regasification—to perform near-cryogenic DAC. From large-scale molecular simulations, Zeolite 13X and CALF-20 were identified as promising candidates. These materials were subsequently examined through experiments, including breakthrough analyses at 195 K. Their high CO 2 sorption capacity (4.5–5.5 mmol g −1 ), combined with a low desorption enthalpy and robust long-term stability, led to a threefold reduction in the levelized cost of capture (down to 68.2 USD per tonne CO 2 ). Estimates of the global LNG regasification resource suggest that LNG–DAC coupling could potentially enable the capture of 103–142 megatonnes of CO 2 annually as of 2050.

Kim, Seo-Yul [Georgia Institute of Technology, Atl↗
DOE OSTI2022

Density reconstruction in convergent high-energy-density systems using x-ray radiography and Bayesian inference

X-ray radiography is a technique frequently used to diagnose convergent high-energy-density (HED) systems, such as inertial confinement fusion implosion, and provides unique information that is not available through self-emission measurements. In this work, we investigate the scope and limits of that information using a radiography simulation combined with the Bayesian inference workflow. The accuracy of density reconstruction from simulated radiographs of spherical implosions driven with 27 kJ laser energy is assessed, including the increase or decrease in accuracy due to the addition of Lagrangian marker layers, Poisson noise, and improved prior information. This work is the first to present the full uncertainty distributions inferred from radiography analysis in HED systems and demonstrates the importance of constructing the full posterior probability density, as opposed to a point estimate, due to the modal structure of the likelihood surface introduced by typical experimental noise sources. This general methodology can be used both for robust analysis of radiographic data and for an improved design of radiography experiments by modeling the full experimental system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A low-luminosity core-collapse supernova very similar to SN 2005cs

ABSTRACT We present observations and analysis of PSN J17292918+7542390, a low-luminosity Type II-P supernova (LL SN IIP). The observed sample of such events is still low, and their nature is still under debate. Such SNe are similar to SN 2005cs, a well-observed LL Type II-P event, having low expansion velocities, and small ejected 56Ni mass. We have developed a robust and relatively fast Monte Carlo code that fits semi-analytic models to light curves of core-collapse SNe. This allows the estimation of the most important physical parameters, like the radius of the progenitor star, the mass of the ejected envelope, the mass of the radioactive nickel synthesized during the explosion, among others. PSN J17292918+7542390 has $R_0 = 91_{-70}^{+119} \times 10^{11} \, \text{cm}$, $M_\text{ej} = 9.89_{-1.00}^{+2.10} \, \mathrm{ M}_{\odot }$, $E_{\mbox{kin}} = 0.65_{-0.18}^{+0.19} \, \text{foe}$, and $v_{\mbox{exp}} = 3332_{-347}^{+216}$ km s−1, for its progenitor radius, ejecta mass, kinetic energy, and expansion velocity, respectively. The initial nickel mass of the PSN J17292918+7542390 turned out to be $1.55_{-0.70}^{+0.75} \times 10^{-3} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$. The measured photospheric velocity at the earliest observed phase is 7000 km s−1. As far as we can tell based on the small population of observed LL SNe IIP, the determined values are typical for these events.

Jäger, Jr, Zoltán↗
DOE OSTI2026

Digital Twin Based Condition Monitoring of LCC-LCC Inductive Power Transfer Systems

Inductive power transfer (IPT) systems provide a flexible, hands-free charging opportunity to electric vehicles (EV). The resonant network components and the transmitter and receiver coils are often subjected to high voltages or currents. Component aging in the compensation network and coils of resonant IPT systems is detrimental to the reliability and power transfer efficiency of the IPT system. Monitoring the component health of such multi-element complex systems requires robust optimization algorithms. This paper discusses condition monitoring of a resonant IPT system for an EV charger using a digital twin model. A hybrid estimation algorithm based on genetic algorithms and adaptive particle swarm optimization is developed to estimate the parameters of the digital twin model. Simulation results are used to verify the monitoring capabilities of the developed algorithm under various operating conditions of the IPT system.

Weldehawaryat, Lidya Mussie [graduate research ass↗
NASA NTRS1997

Direct Adaptive Aircraft Control Using Dynamic Cell Structure Neural Networks

A Dynamic Cell Structure (DCS) Neural Network was developed which learns topology representing networks (TRNS) of F-15 aircraft aerodynamic stability and control derivatives. The network is integrated into a direct adaptive tracking controller. The combination produces a robust adaptive architecture capable of handling multiple accident and off- nominal flight scenarios. This paper describes the DCS network and modifications to the parameter estimation procedure. The work represents one step towards an integrated real-time reconfiguration control architecture for rapid prototyping of new aircraft designs. Performance was evaluated using three off-line benchmarks and on-line nonlinear Virtual Reality simulation. Flight control was evaluated under scenarios including differential stabilator lock, soft sensor failure, control and stability derivative variations, and air turbulence.

Jorgensen, Charles C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Reduced-Order Modeling and Wavelet Analysis of Turbofan Engine Structural Response Due to Foreign Object Damage (FOD) Events

The development of a wavelet-based feature extraction technique specifically targeting FOD-event induced vibration signal changes in gas turbine engines is described. The technique performs wavelet analysis of accelerometer signals from specified locations on the engine and is shown to be robust in the presence of significant process and sensor noise. It is envisioned that the technique will be combined with Kalman filter thermal/health parameter estimation for FOD-event detection via information fusion from these (and perhaps other) sources. Due to the lack of high-frequency FOD-event test data in the open literature, a reduced-order turbofan structural model (ROM) was synthesized from a finite element model modal analysis to support the investigation. In addition to providing test data for algorithm development, the ROM is used to determine the optimal sensor location for FOD-event detection. In the presence of significant noise, precise location of the FOD event in time was obtained using the developed wavelet-based feature.

Turso, James↗
NASA NTRS2011

Waterhammer Transient Simulation and Model Anchoring for the Robotic Lunar Lander Propulsion System

Waterhammer transients have the potential to adversely impact propulsion system design if not properly addressed. Waterhammer can potentially lead to system plumbing, and component damage. Multi-thruster propulsion systems also develop constructive/destructive wave interference which becomes difficult to predict without detailed models. Therefore, it is important to sufficiently characterize propulsion system waterhammer in order to develop a robust design with minimal impact to other systems. A risk reduction activity was performed at Marshall Space Flight Center to develop a tool for estimating waterhammer through the use of anchored simulation for the Robotic Lunar Lander (RLL) propulsion system design. Testing was performed to simulate waterhammer surges due to rapid valve closure and consisted of twenty-two series of waterhammer tests, resulting in more than 300 valve actuations. These tests were performed using different valve actuation schemes and three system pressures. Data from the valve characterization tests were used to anchor the models that employed MSCSoftware.EASY5 v.2010 to model transient fluid phenomena by using transient forms of mass and energy conservation. The anchoring process was performed by comparing initial model results to experimental data and then iterating the model input to match the simulation results with the experimental data. The models provide good correlation with experimental results, supporting the use of EASY5 as a tool to model fluid transients and provide a baseline for future RLL system modeling. This paper addresses tasks performed during the waterhammer risk reduction activity for the RLL propulsion system. The problem of waterhammer simulation anchoring as applied to the RLL system is discussed with results from the corresponding experimental valve tests. Important factors for waterhammer mitigation are discussed along with potential design impacts to the RLL propulsion system.

Stein, William B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AstroLoc: An Efficient and Robust Localizer for a Free-flying Robot

We present AstroLoc, an efficient and robust monocular visual-inertial graph-based localization system used by the Astrobee free-flying robots onboard the International Space Station (ISS). We provide a novel localization system that limits the traditionally higher computation times for graph-based localization systems and enables the resource constrained Astrobee robots to benefit from their increased accuracy. We also introduce methods for handling cheirality issues for visual odometry and localization factors that further increase localization robustness. We evaluate the performance of AstroLoc on a dataset of ISS activities and show that it greatly improves pose, velocity, and IMU bias estimation accuracy while efficiently running in a limited computation environment. The source code for AstroLoc is released to the public.

Localization↗
NASA NTRS1991

Stochastic robustness

To carry out stochastic robustness analysis, an expected probability distribution is assigned to each uncertain parameter in the system. The Monte Carlo analysis proceeds by repeatedly assigning shaped random values to each plant parameter, evaluating the stability of performance metric, and performing the binary classification (stable/unstable, etc.). If the system is stable, the state response to a unit disturbance impulse can be propagated to establish whether the response would violate settling time envelopes and whether peak actuator use would violate predetermined maximums. The final estimates of the probability of each form of unacceptable behavior are found by dividing the number of cases in which the overall system had that form of unacceptability by the number of cases run. Stability robustness can be portrayed graphically using the stochastic root locus and by using histograms of parameter values found in the unacceptable cases.

Marrison, C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

OGLE-2018-BLG-0532Lb: Cold Neptune with Possible Jovian Sibling

We report the discovery of the planet OGLE-2018-BLG-0532Lb, with very obvious signatures in the light curve that lead to an estimate of the planet-host mass ratio q=M{sub planet}/M{sub host}≃1×10{sup −4}. Although there are no obvious systematic residuals to this double-lens/single-source (2L1S) fit, we find that χ {sup 2} can be significantly improved by adding either a third lens (3L1S, Δχ {sup 2} = 81) or second source (2L2S, Δχ {sup 2} = 77) to the lens-source geometry. After thorough investigation, we conclude that we cannot decisively distinguish between these two scenarios and therefore focus on the robustly detected planet. However, given the possible presence of a second planet, we investigate to what degree and with what probability such additional planets may affect seemingly single-planet light curves. Our best estimates for the properties of the lens star and the secure planet are a host mass M ∼ 0.25 M {sub ⊙}, system distance D {sub L} ∼ 1 kpc, and planet mass m{sub p,1}=8 M{sub ⊕} with projected separation a{sub 1,⊥}=1.4 au. However, there is a relatively bright I = 18.6 (and also relatively blue) star projected within <50 mas of the lens, and if future high-resolution images show that this is coincident with the lens, then it is possible that it is the lens, in which case, the lens would be both more massive and more distant than the best-estimated values above.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Distributed Frequency Divider for Power System Bus Frequency Online Estimation Considering Virtual Inertia From DFIGs

In this work, a distributed frequency divider is proposed to estimate power system bus frequency with a limited number of PMUs while considering the inertial contributions from double-fed induction generators (DFIGs). The key idea is to reformulate the original frequency divider by modeling the contributions of DFIGs with inertia emulation and external regional power system through Thevenin equivalents. The distributed frequency divider is general and able to estimate local bus frequencies in a distributed manner. Besides, only the knowledge of the rotor speeds of synchronous generator, boundary bus frequencies and terminal bus frequencies of DFIGs as well as the admittance matrix are required to estimate the frequencies at all buses. This is drastically different from existing approaches that require system observability by PMUs to monitor all bus frequencies. Numerical results carried out on the IEEE 39-bus and modified 118-bus power systems with DFIGs demonstrate and effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2020

Local and Remote Mean and Extreme Temperature Response to Regional Aerosol Emissions Reductions

The climatic implications of regional aerosol and precursor emissions reductions implemented to protect human health are poorly understood. We investigate the mean and extreme temperature response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three coupled chemistry–climate models: NOAA GFDL CM3, NCAR CESM1, and NASA GISS-E2. Our approach contrasts a long present-day control simulation from each model (up to 400 years with perpetual year 2000 or 2005 emissions) with 14 individual aerosol emissions perturbation simulations (160–240 years each). We perturb emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and/or carbonaceous aerosol within six world regions and assess the statistical significance of mean and extreme temperature responses relative to internal variability determined by the control simulation and across the models. In all models, the global mean surface temperature response (perturbation minus control) to SO2 and/or carbonaceous aerosol is mostly positive (warming) and statistically significant and ranges from +0.17 K (Europe SO2) to -0.06 K (US BC). The warming response to SO2 reductions is strongest in the US and Europe perturbation simulations, both globally and regionally, with Arctic warming up to 1 K due to a removal of European anthropogenic SO2 emissions alone; however, even emissions from regions remote to the Arctic, such as SO2 from India, significantly warm the Arctic by up to 0.5 K. Arctic warming is the most robust response across each model and several aerosol emissions perturbations. The temperature response in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes is most sensitive to emissions perturbations within that region. In the tropics, however, the temperature response to emissions perturbations is roughly the same in magnitude as emissions perturbations either within or outside of the tropics. We find that climate sensitivity to regional aerosol perturbations ranges from 0.5 to 1.0 K (W m(exp -2))(exp -1) depending on the region and aerosol composition and is larger than the climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 in two of three models. We update previous estimates of regional temperature potential (RTP), a metric for estimating the regional temperature responses to a regional emissions perturbation that can facilitate assessment of climate impacts with integrated assessment models without requiring computationally demanding coupled climate model simulations. These calculations indicate a robust regional response to aerosol forcing within the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, regardless of where the aerosol forcing is located longitudinally. We show that regional aerosol perturbations can significantly increase extreme temperatures on the regional scale. Except in the Arctic in the summer, extreme temperature responses largely mirror mean temperature responses to regional aerosol perturbations through a shift of the temperature distributions and are mostly dominated by local rather than remote aerosol forcing.

Westervelt, Daniel M.↗