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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 919 records · Page 51

Probabilistic Cloud Optimized Day-Ahead Forecasting System Based on WRF-Solar (Final Report)

The most persistent challenge in both intraday and day-ahead solar forecasting is to get numerical weather prediction models to produce the right type of clouds with the right frequency at the right time and place. Another challenge is to understand and communicate the forecast uncertainty. The objective of this project was to develop an optimized ensemble-based solar irradiance forecasting system that will (1) demonstrably improve the current state-of-the-art solar forecasts from the deterministic Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar (WRF-Solar) model and (2) provide probabilistic forecasts for grid operations. This probabilistic solar forecasting system, referred to as the WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), aims to significantly enhance both the intraday and the day-ahead solar forecasting capability for grid operations. This technical report summarizes the work performed in the past 3 years through a collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research as part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Forecasting 2 program that aims to improve the accuracy of solar energy forecasts and enable increased deployment of solar energy on the electric grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Inventory of Clean Energy Education and Workforce Programs in Connecticut's I-91 Corridor

This document reports on the findings of an inventory of the educational and workforce development resources in a four-county area on the I-91 corridor in Connecticut. The overarching goal of this exercise is to help the local workforce leaders in Bridgeport, Connecticut to optimize their training programs to support the county's clean energy transition. The inventory generally finds that Fairfield County, where Bridgeport is located, lacks adequate education and training programs compared to other surrounding counties with similar populations. More than half of Fairfield County's programs occur through high school or career technical education programs, suggesting that there are minimal opportunities for workers who are not currently high school students. Much of the existing focus within Fairfield County is on general construction or plumbing and electrical skills. There is room to expand by offering more programs focusing on energy efficiency and renewable energy skills. The document outlines some potential next steps and questions for consideration for the local workforce leaders in Bridgeport. Bridgeport is a city located within Fairfield County in southwestern Connecticut. It is the largest city in Connecticut with an estimated population of 150,000. Through the Department of Energy-funded Communities LEAP program, NREL conducted an analysis of existing education and workforce development (EWD) programs located in Fairfield County that align with (or could support) the worker pipeline for occupations related to building energy efficiency (EE), renewable energy (RE), and clean energy manufacturing. The analysis also looked at EWD offerings in other counties in Connecticut as a point of comparison.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Optimal Wind Turbine Design for H2 Production

The Optimal Wind Turbine Design for Hydrogen Production work seeks to address the H2@Scale program's goal to "advance affordable hydrogen production" by optimizing the wind turbine design specifically for hydrogen (H2) production. The project identifies optimal wind turbine designs made specifically for hydrogen production to advance affordable green hydrogen production. The project also couples wind turbine, wind plant, solar plant, and electrolyzer models to predict hydrogen production from variable, renewable power sources.

electrolyzer↗

Mathematical Modeling of Hydroxide-Exchange-Membrane Water Electrolyzer

Water electrolyzers can transform intermittent renewable energy like solar energy and wind energy into the chemical energy of hydrogen with zero greenhouse-gas emissions. The hydroxide-exchange membrane electrolyzer (HEME) combines the capability to produce pressurized hydrogen with the advantage of being able to use low or non-platinum group metal (PGM) electrocatalysts in the alkaline environment.1 Hydroxide salts, for example, KOH, are added to the HEME water feed on both anode and cathode to improve its performance. However, the specific mechanism of performance improvement still needs to be further understood. In addition, at high current densities, bubble evolution can result in mass-transport limitations, a less well studied phenomena. Mathematical modeling is ideal to explore these issues as it is cost and time efficient and can deconvolute the physics, processes, and observed phenomena and study the applied-voltage breakdown. In this work, we extend our previously developed 1D two-phase continuum model2 to study the varies processes in the HEME and provide insights on performance optimizations. First, the oxygen evolution reaction (OER) and hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) kinetics at different hydroxide concentrations have been studied by rotating disk electrodes (RDE) and implemented in the model. Then, the model is calibrated and validated against experimental HEME polarization curves for different KOH concentrations as a liquid electrolyte. The model clearly shows a performance increase with increasing KOH concentrations, which is consistent with the experimental results. The reduced ohmic resistance and increased electrochemical active surface area (ECSA) are the two main reasons for performance increase. The large amount of hydroxide in the liquid electrolyte not only helps to distribute the reactant hydroxide throughout the catalyst layer (CL), which reduces ohmic loss, but also enables reaction at the interface between the liquid electrolyte and electrocatalyst, which increases the ECSA. Applied-voltage breakdown demonstrates that the electrolyzer performance is dominated by anode kinetics and ohmic loss. A comparison with the DI water feed shows a more uniform current distribution in the anode CL when KOH is added, which indicates a higher utilization of the CL. Second, we present modeling on the effects of bubble coverage. As gas evolves, part of the ECSA is minimized due to bubble coverage. To account for this effect, an empirical relationship between the fractional bubble coverage and the current density is implemented in the model.3 The model shows this bubble coverage effect is more pronounced at large current densities with DI water feed. Acknowledgements This work was funded under the HydroGEN Consortium by the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office, of the U. S. Department of Energy under contract number DE-AC02-05CH11231. References R. Abbasi, B. P. Setzler, S. Lin, J. Wang, Y. Zhao, H. Xu, B. Pivovar, B. Tian, X. Chen, G. Wu and Y. Yan, 31, 1805876 (2019). L. N. Stanislaw, M. R. Gerhardt and A. Z. Weber, ECS Transactions, 92, 767 (2019). H. Vogt and R. J. Balzer, Electrochimica Acta, 50, 2073 (2005).

Liu, Jiangjin↗

Microkinetic Modeling of the Transient CO 2 Methanation with DFT–Based Uncertainties in a Berty Reactor

The transient operation of methanation reactors can become desirable when coupled with fluctuating renewable energies in Power-to-Gas scenarios, which requires suitable kinetic approaches that can describe the transient catalytic phenomena. A combined experimental and theoretical investigation of the transient CO 2 methanation is conducted using concentration forcing to derive a suitable microkinetic model. Methanation experiments are performed with a Ni/SiO 2 catalyst in a Berty-type reactor at industrially relevant conditions. The microkinetics are based on previous work and were automatically constructed for the Ni(111) facet using the Reaction Mechanism Generator. A feasible set of energetic parameters of the microkinetic models was identified in a theory-constrained optimization procedure within the DFT uncertainty space that can accurately reproduce the experimental results on a first-principles basis. The microkinetic model unravels that the formation of H 2 O* and CH 3 * control the activity and selectivity of Ni(111) under the investigated conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Assessing geothermal/solar hybridization – Integrating a solar thermal topping cycle into a geothermal bottoming cycle with energy storage

Geothermal and concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies typically use heat at different temperatures in their commercial deployments. This enables a technically viable hybridization of a solar topping cycle and a geothermal bottoming cycle at locations where both resources are available. In this article, an underperforming geothermal power system based at Burley, Idaho is used as a baseline to investigate the technical and economic potential of such a hybrid cycle. A direct thermal energy storage (TES) system is also integrated to overcome the intermittency of the solar resource. Design and off-design behavior of key components are modelled to simulate the annual performance of the hybrid system on an hourly basis. The sizing of the solar field and thermal storage is investigated and is seen to significantly impact the annual electricity generation and efficiency. Various cost scenarios for the solar field and thermal energy storage are investigated. An economic metric - levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) - is used to optimize the solar field sizing and TES capacity. The hybrid plant converts the additional solar heat input into additional work with an efficiency of 32.9%. Retrofitting a geothermal plant with solar and eight hours of energy storage can achieve an LCOE of 0.136 $/kWhe in current cost scenarios and 0.081 $/kWhe in a future cost reduction scenario. Although the hybrid system cannot directly compete with current PV systems without batteries, it has an LCOE 32% lower than that of a PV-battery system. This paper provides insights into the research and development of the future grid with a high renewable energy penetration and encourages further study of energy hybridization for improved efficiencies and economics.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Multiphysics Meshfree Degradation Modeling of Energy Storage Materials with Kernel Enrichment

Energy storage materials exhibit strong electro-chemo-mechanical coupling and highly anisotropic material properties, contributing to the formation and propagation of micro-cracking during charge/discharge cycling and ultimately diminishing performance and service life. With microstructural images supplied by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), pixel-based meshfree model construction by the reproducing kernel particle method (RKPM) is used to represent the complex material microstructures that dictate the coupled physics of these systems. Traditional electro-chemo-mechanical models rely on mesh-based finite element methods, which can lead to difficulties in meshing such complex geometries and capturing crack propagation due to mesh dependency. The first kernel enrichment discussed will be the interface modified reproducing kernel (IM-RK) [1, 2], constructed by scaling a smooth kernel function with an interface-distance function to achieve strategic discontinuity types (i.e. weak discontinuities for strain discontinuities and strong discontinuities for cracks) and alleviate Gibbs oscillations near these transition zones. The IM-RK is especially useful for areas in which a known discontinuity-type is expected a priori. The second kernel enrichment to be discussed is a neural network-enhanced reproducing kernel (NN-RK) [3, 4], which is introduced to effectively model non-obvious damage and crack propagation in the material microstructures; the location, orientation, and solution transition near a localization are automatically captured by superimposed block-level NN optimizations. This NN enrichment approach allows for effective modeling of localizations via a fixed background discretization, relieving tedious efforts for adaptive refinement in traditional mesh-based methods. Applications to the heterogeneous microstructures of Li-ion battery cathodes will be presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. NN-RK is additionally used to inform how crack opening and closure in turn affect the electro-chemo-mechanical responses in the material microstructure. Reference: [1] Wang, Y., Baek, J., Tang, Y. et al. "Support vector machine guided reproducing kernel particle method for image-based modeling of microstructures," Comput Mech 73, 907-942 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00466-023-02394-9. [2] Susuki, K., Allen, J. & Chen, J. S.. "Image-based modeling of coupled electro-chemo-mechanical behavior of Li-ion battery cathode using an interface-modified reproducing kernel particle method," Engineering with Computers (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00366-024-02016-9. [3] Baek, J., Chen, J. S., Susuki, K., "Neural Network enhanced Reproducing Kernel Particle Method for Modeling Localizations," International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering, Vol. 123, 4422-4454 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1002/nme.7040.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

An interregional optimization approach for time series aggregation in continent-scale electricity system models

Modeling electric power systems with high shares of weather-dependent resources requires tradeoffs between temporal, spatial, and operational resolution. Many studies perform time series aggregation using clustering algorithms to reduce the temporal dimension, but when modeling continent-scale electricity systems that are large enough to contain multiple independent weather systems, this approach requires large numbers of representative periods to minimize errors in regional wind and solar capacity factors. Here, a new optimization-based approach for representative period selection and weighting is introduced that minimizes regional errors in average renewable capacity factors and electricity demand. The method delivers higher regional fidelity with fewer representative periods than alternative clustering methods when applied to wind, solar, and demand profiles for the contiguous United States. When representative periods are selected from multiple weather years, the optimized method reproduces regional averages with lower error than a complete 365-day time series from any single weather year. The method identifies only representative (as opposed to outlying) periods but can be combined with an iterative "stress period" identification approach to guide efficient decision-making considering both average and high-risk weather conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Advanced Microstructured BaTiO 3 -Embedded PVDF–HFP/PEO Film for Enhanced Triboelectric Interface in Self-Sufficient Energy Generation and Sensing

The global reliance on fossil fuels and natural gas has largely dominated the energy production field, but due to finite resource depletion and escalating greenhouse gas emissions, the immediate exploration of sustainable energy alternatives to mitigate climate change and ensure resource security has been a major concern. There has been extensive research into other more renewable methods of energy production, such as wind and hydropower. Of these current energy generation types, there are many areas of untapped potential from the mechanical movements generated ambiently not only in the large scale of power generation but also on a smaller scale. The piezoelectric and triboelectric effects are phenomena where these ambient mechanical movements can generate electrical energy. Developing a hybrid system that leverages both mechanical stress and surface charges presents an ideal opportunity to exploit these untapped energy sources. Producing a hybrid PVDF–HFP/PEO film with perovskite BaTiO 3 (BTO) enables ambient power harvesting from both mechanical movement and surface charge. The optimized cell produced a potential of up to 15 V and a current of 200 nA with a 68 kΩ resistor, a substantial increase from a base system with an average of 2.1 V and 40 nA. These hybrid TENGs offer significant potential for energy harvesting in small-scale applications, such as health monitoring devices and indicators in electric circuits.

Ybarra, Rigobert [University of Texas Rio Grande V↗

Data-Enabled Fusion Technology (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Advancing Scientific Understanding in Fusion Energy and Machine Learning This research represented a significant step forward in machine learning (ML) applications for fusion energy experiments. The project integrated advanced data-driven modeling, optimization techniques, and artificial intelligence to enhance the predictive capabilities and operational efficiency of plasma-based fusion systems. Specifically, tasks focused on ML-enhanced diagnostics, operator guidance tools, and predictive modeling helped improve the ability to interpret complex fusion experiments. Key areas of advancement included: 1) data-driven plasma control, i.e., using ML algorithms to optimize experimental conditions and classify plasma behaviors based on historical data; 2) spectroscopy and diagnostics, i.e., applying AI models to extract previously inaccessible insights from experimental spectroscopy data; and 3) configuration mapping and operator guidance, i.e., developing a predictive framework to assist scientists in identifying the most effective experimental parameters, reducing reliance on manual adjustments. By refining these ML-driven techniques, the project contributed to the broader scientific community’s understanding of plasma dynamics and fusion energy viability. Technical Effectiveness and Economic Feasibility The methods investigated demonstrated high technical effectiveness, as reflected in milestones assessing the predictive accuracy, performance, and optimization of fusion configurations. The development of an Operator Guidance Tool (OGT), for example, led to more precise control of plasma conditions by learning from experimental data and offering real-time adjustments. From an economic standpoint, DeFT provided: 1) the ability to reduce trial-and-error experimentation, which lowered operational costs; 2) improved data interpretation methods, which enabled more efficient resource allocation in large-scale fusion research projects; and 3) the automation of key diagnostic tasks, which reduced manual labor and human error, increasing overall efficiency. 13 The final assessments of predictive models and optimization strategies demonstrated that these approaches were scalable and could be implemented across multiple fusion energy research programs. Public Benefit and Societal Impact This project contributed directly to the broader goal of achieving sustainable and commercially viable fusion energy, which had profound implications for clean energy production and climate change mitigation. The integration of AI-driven solutions into fusion research: 1) sped up scientific discovery, accelerating progress towards achieving energy breakthroughs; 2) reduced the cost of experimentation, making fusion research more accessible; and 3) provided a framework for future AI applications in high-energy physics, benefiting adjacent fields like space exploration, material science, and renewable energy. Additionally, by fostering collaborations between AI researchers and plasma physicists, this project promoted interdisciplinary innovation that could lead to broader applications beyond fusion research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Dynamic Orbital Slingshot for Rendezvous with Interstellar Objects

The solar sail “statite” concept presents a potential means to study interstellar objects (ISOs). A new class of asteroids and comets, ISOs offer a unique scientific opportunity to answer fundamental scientific questions about the origin of solar system volatiles, the compositions of exo-solar systems, and the transfer rates of material between solar systems. Unfortunately, they are also challenging to study due to their high excess energies and the short lead time offered by present detection infrastructure. By using its solar sail to “hover” in place, a statite is able to await the discovery of an ISO and, when called upon, convert the enormous potential energy of its stationary state into the velocity necessary to rendezvous with the targeted comet or asteroid. The investigation completed in Phase I focused on establishing the viability of the proposed mission concept. To do so, optimal trajectories to the two known ISOs were demonstrated and the relationship between statite placement and the resulting trajectory was explored. Post-launch trajectories from the Earth to strategic statite states were also shown to be feasible. Concurrently with these efforts, a thorough review of published ISO population estimates was conducted and preliminary steps towards creating a database of synthetic ISO ephemerides were completed. If renewed for a Phase II, this will be used to characterize the capabilities of the statite concept.

NIAC Phase I↗

Controlling Ligand Excimer Formation with Dipole Changes in Emissive Rare-Earth/Phosphonic Acid Complexes

The interactions between substituted arylvinyl phosphonic acid (AVPA) ligands within a Eu-AVPA complex are shown to influence the outcomes of excited state evolution after photoexcitation. Compared with unfunctionalized AVPAs, pairs of ligands functionalized with CF 3 in the para position preassociate in the ground state of complexes with Eu 3+ according to calculated geometry optimizations. The CF 3 -substituted AVPA complexes show evidence of red-shifted optical absorption and undergo more efficient excimer formation, as revealed by transient absorption spectroscopy. We rationalize this behavior through simulations of excited-state geometry optimizations that reveal evolution toward interligand phenyl-phenyl planarity for specific excited states. Emission from complexed Eu 3+ after energy transfer from the ligand is found to be weaker with CF 3 substitution, which we hypothesize is due to intracomplex, interligand aggregates with excimer-promoting geometries. These observations point to the need to consider ground-state geometries as well as dynamic excited-state processes to understand the flow of energy in rare earth coordination complexes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Synergies and trade-offs between storage, transmission, and sector coupling in high renewable energy systems

Energy storage, transmission, and sector coupling are some prominent flexibility solutions to support variable renewable energy (VRE) integration. However, investment cost uncertainties and public acceptance could hamper the deployment of these flexibility solutions. This raises questions about the development and cost-effectiveness of future energy systems, especially on how the dependence on local and cross-border solutions of flexibility would evolve if the uptake of these solutions is restricted. In this context, this paper identifies the synergies among flexibility options under restrictions on transmission expansion or increased costs of energy storage. It contributes to determining whether investments in energy storage and/or transmission expansion offer the least-cost transition and investigates the impact of sector coupling on these solutions. A long-term energy system planning and optimisation model towards 2050 is developed using the open-source energy system optimisation tool Balmorel, and a case study of the countries surrounding the Baltic Sea and the North Sea is established. Five cases with restrictions imposed on transmission expansion and higher energy storage technology costs are analysed at different levels of sector coupling. The results highlight the importance of transmission expansion at all levels of sector coupling. As the level of sector coupling increases, uncertainties around the cost of energy storage drive the least-cost pathways. Optimal investment solutions are found to have a mix of transmission and energy storage in capacity expansion at all levels of sector coupling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Machine learning for reparameterization of multi-scale closures

Scientific machine learning (ML) is becoming increasingly useful in learning closure models for multi-scale physics problems; however, many ML approaches require a vast array of training data and can struggle with generalization and interpretability. Here, rather than learning an entire closure operator, we adopt an existing reduced-dimension model of the microphysics and learn an optimal re-parameterization of the solver. We demonstrate two approaches for training the reduced dimension closure model (1) an a priori method that optimizes the closure parameterization and the neural network parameters separately and (2) an a posteriori method that simultaneously optimizes both. Using the simulation of biomass pyrolysis as a motivating example, we show that the a posteriori method achieves better target losses and is less dependent on training dataset size for generalizability. We then demonstrate the impact that implementing this reparameterization has at the macroscale, showing improved predictive performance with no modification to the underlying macroscale solvers.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

PV Degradation Modeling: Applying Geospatial Workflows with "PVDeg"

Accurate degradation modeling is essential for predicting photovoltaic (PV) module performance, estimating longevity and informing design decisions. With degradation rates varying significantly by location, geospatial analysis is critical for PV and broader applications, such as agrivoltaics, weathering and environmental data analysis. This work presents PVDeg, an open-source tool designed for geospatial degradation analysis. PVDeg integrates meteorological data from global sources, including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS), with degradation models. The toolkit enables users to customize geospatial workflows by integrating weather data, material parameters, and user-defined Python functions. It facilitates accelerated downloads of NSRDB and PVGIS datasets and optimizes geospatial point selection to preserve data density in regions of interest. Additionally, PVDeg provides a local database for storage and spatial queries, supporting large-scale analyses without the need for high-performance computing (HPC) resources. PVDeg provides a foundational workflow that extends its utility beyond PV applications, enabling researchers to analyze geospatial processes across discipline.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Distribution System Restoration Using Distributed Energy Resources and Tie-Switches

Distributed energy resources (DERs), such as solar PVs and energy storage, can be used to restore distribution system critical loads after the extreme weather events to increase grid resilience. However, coordinating multiple DERs together with tie-switches for multi-step restoration process under renewable uncertainty is challenging. This paper proposes a deep reinforcement learning to control discrete actions of switching on/off tie switches and DERs for critical load restoration. The restoration problem is first cast into the Markov decision process suitable for DRL. Then, the original soft actor critic (SAC) method for continuous actions has been extended to handle discrete and continuous actions. Numerical comparison results with other stochastic optimization-based approaches on the modified IEEE 33-bus system show that the proposed method can achieve fast critical load restoration in the presence of substation power outage while maintaining system voltage limit throughout the restoration process.

active distribution systems↗

Accelerator Real-time Edge AI for Distributed Systems (READS) (Proposal)

Over the last decade, Machine Learning (ML) technologies have slowly made their way into the accelerator community. Rapid advances in recent years in deep learning, particularly reinforcement learning for control system applications and the accessibility of deep learning in embedded hardware, have generated renewed interest and spawned a number of applications. The Fermilab Accelerator Complex, shown in Fig. 1, has provided High Energy Physics (HEP) experiments with proton beams for nearly fifty years. The current focus of the laboratory is its world-class experimental program at the intensity frontier. While increasing beam intensity certainly presents its own challenges, preserving beam size while minimizing beam losses – particles lost through interactions with the beam vacuum pipe – turns out to be, in many ways, the main challenge. The accelerator is controlled via a complex system of hundreds of thousands of devices. Enabling fine tuning and real-time optimization of their parameters using ML methods and stepping beyond experience-based reasoning of human operators are key to the success of future intensity upgrades. Our objective will be to integrate ML into accelerator operations and furthermore, provide an accessible framework, which can also be used by a broad range of other accelerator systems with dynamic tuning needs.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗