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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

1.2.2.405 HydroWIRES Topic D1: Capacity Expansion Model (CEM) Enhancements

Long-term grid planning tools have difficulty representing detailed hydropower operating characteristics, which depend not only on technological specifications but also on water management practices and regulations. As a result, the value of hydropower is incompletely characterized, and the potential role of hydropower in the performance and resiliency of the future electric grid is not fully understood. This work will fill that gap by developing new ways to represent hydropower resource, technology, and operational characteristics in electric sector capacity expansion models and implementing them in the open-source version of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. ReEDS is a well-established national scale grid planning tool used since 2003 by the U.S. Department of Energy and others to explore the evolution of the U.S. electric sector. Improvements will include a comprehensive national resource assessment for pumped storage hydropower and methods for modeling multiple hydropower technology categories characterized by technical, regulatory, and economic characteristics. The project will provide guiding principles and strategies for improving hydropower modeling in capacity expansion models and deliver a first-of-its kind versatile PSH dataset. All data, code, and methods will be publicly available, allowing the industry to better identify the value of hydropower in the future electricity system and make more informed planning decisions.

capacity expansion↗
DOE OSTI2021

Plutonium in Manhattan Project workers: Using autopsy data to evaluate organ content and dose estimates based on urine bioassay with implications for radiation epidemiology

Purpose Radiation dose estimates in epidemiology typically rely on intake predictions based on urine bioassay measurements. The purpose of this article is to compare the conventional dosimetric estimates for radiation epidemiology with the estimates based on additional post-mortem tissue radiochemical analysis results. Methods The comparison was performed on a unique group of 11 former Manhattan Project nuclear workers, who worked with plutonium in the 1940s, and voluntarily donated their bodies to the United States Transuranium and Uranium Registries. Results Post-mortem organ activities were predicted using different sets of urine data and compared to measured activities. Use of urinalysis data collected during the exposure periods overestimated the systemic (liver+skeleton) deposition of 239 Pu by 155±134%, while the average bias from using post-exposure urinalyses was –4±50%. Committed effective doses estimated using early urine data differed from the best estimate by, on average, 196±193%; inclusion of follow-up urine measurements in analyses decreased the mean bias to 0.6±36.3%. Cumulative absorbed doses for the liver, red marrow, bone surface, and brain were calculated for the actual commitment period. Conclusion On average, post-exposure urine bioassay results were in good agreement with post-mortem tissue analyses and were more reliable than results of urine bioassays collected during the exposure.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Types: Relevant Data and Play Fairway Analysis Methods

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) is supporting the Geothermal Heating and Cooling Geospatial Datasets and Analysis project conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) as part of a broader effort to demonstrate the multi-faceted value of integrating geothermal power and geothermal heating and cooling (GHC) technologies into national decarbonization plans and community energy plans. Currently, there is a need to establish baseline low-temperature geothermal resource datasets and evaluate methods for deploying these technologies to provide the basis for supporting private sector investment. This project is focused on collecting baseline datasets, updating conceptual models, and creating Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) workflows for low-temperature (<150 degrees Celsius) geothermal resources of different geothermal play types (i.e., sedimentary basin, orogenic belts, and radiogenic geothermal play types) that could be used for geothermal heating and cooling (GHC), combined heat and power (CHP), and other geothermal direct uses (GDU) applications. Low-temperature geothermal resources are defined as reservoirs - natural or engineered - with temperatures <150 degrees Celsius. While the focus in the NREL effort is on GHC, resources at the upper end of this temperature range can also be used for small-scale power generation. This project does not include Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) technologies because they can be effectively developed almost anywhere. Low-temperature geothermal resources have not been studied as extensively as higher- to medium-temperature geothermal resources, but there is recent interest in improving understanding of these types of resources with an uptick of interest in geothermal technologies for decarbonizing heating and cooling systems. In addition, Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and other emerging technologies for exploiting petrothermal resources have opened the possibility of utilizing deep sedimentary basin systems, where porous media provide permeability and high temperatures can be reached at great depths. This project takes the approach of classifying low- temperature geothermal resources by geothermal play type (GPT). We defined and characterized three major classes of low-temperature GPT: sedimentary basins, orogenic systems, and radiogenic systems. We develop methodologies for evaluating and analyzing the potential for these resources building off the PFA approach to de-risking geothermal exploration and characterization. The proposed PFA approach for low-temperature geothermal resources includes: 1) identifying relevant data (e.g., datasets such bottom-hole temperatures from oil and gas wells, heat flow data, Quaternary faults and stress field data, geophysical data, etc.); 2) grouping and weighting of relevant datasets into PFA criteria (e.g., geological, risk, and economic criteria); 3) uncertainty quantification; 4) developing favorability or common risk maps for low-temperature geothermal resources to identify potential locations for more focused data collection; and 5) estimating electric power generation and heating potential at those locations using the GeoRePORT Resource Size Assessment Tool (RSAT). This project should facilitate future deployment of GHC, CHP, and GDU by providing data, tools, and a workflow applicable to low-temperature geothermal resources. Increased deployment of GHC and GDU will help achieve national and local decarbonization goals.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of second-order spectral line widths formulae

Frequently used second-order spectral line width formulae from the projector operator and kinetic theory methods have not been formally compared previously. Here it is shown that a systematic second-order expansion of the projection operator expression including initial correlations agrees with the second-order kinetic theory result. The agreement assumes a common approximation in the projector operator method that introduces a screened radiator–perturber interaction to account for neglected electron–electron correlations. On the other hand, it is shown that the usual width expression from the projection operator approach neglecting initial correlations differs from kinetic theory. The differences, however, are at least third order in the radiator–perturber interaction. The comparisons suggest using the more compact width expression from kinetic theory, which includes initial correlations and a systematic screening of the radiator–perturber interactions, as the starting point for second-order width calculations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Intensified Electro-Catalytic Process for Production of Formic Acid from Power Plant CO 2 Emissions (Final Technical Report)

The goal of this project was to develop and test a novel electro-catalytic method for the production of high-value formic acid from coal-derived CO 2 as a strategy to offset the cost of CO 2 capture. Formic acid is currently produced from the conversion of higher-order carbon products such as methane and/or methanol. This electro-catalytic CO 2 reduction process utilizes a highly selective catalyst in a flow-through reactor design to maximize the formic acid production rate. The specific objectives of this proposed study were to; 1) produce and screen highly selective engineered CO 2 reducing catalysts capable of exclusively producing formic acid; 2) immobilize the catalyst within a flow process to continually produce formic acid and increase catalyst lifetime; and 3) assess the stability of the electrocatalyst during long-term operation. The project involved the development and testing of an engineered catalyst to selectively reduce CO 2 directly and exclusively to formic acid. After the best-performing catalyst was selected, it was immobilized and tested inside a flow-through reactor at UK CAER using realistic conditions expected from CO 2 produced during coal combustion and separated by a CO 2 capture plant.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Peridigm Meshfree Peridynamics Code

Abstract Peridigm is a meshfree peridynamics code written in C++ for use on large-scale parallel computers. It was originally developed at Sandia National Laboratories and is currently managed as an open-source, community driven software project. Its primary features include bond-based, state-based, and non-ordinary state-based constitutive models, bond failure laws, contact, and support for explicit and implicit time integration. To date, Peridigm has been used primarily by methods developers focused on solid mechanics and material failure. Peridigm utilizes foundational software components from Sandia’s Trilinos project and was designed for extensibility. This paper provides an overview of the solution methods implemented in Peridigm , a discussion of its software infrastructure, and demonstrates the use of Peridigm for the solution of several example problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

MRCI Subtask 2.4/2.5: Regional/Subregional Analysis and Risk Assessment Final Technical Summary Report

The objective of the Midwest Regional Carbon Initiative (MRCI) project is to implement a collaborative Regional Initiative (RI) to accelerate the deployment of carbon capture, and storage (CCS) in the Midwest-Northeastern quadrant of the United States. This report is a Technical Summary report describing work performed on Tasks 2.4 (Conducting Regional/Subregional Analysis) and 2.5 (Assessing and Managing Risk) during the MRCI project. In Task 2.4, detailed numerical reservoir simulation models were developed for selected carbon storage (CS) systems identified under Task 2.1 (Battelle, 2021a) in the MRCI study area. The objective of Task 2.4 is to demonstrate a dynamic modeling methodology for evaluating the suitability of the (selected) CS systems in the MRCI region for hosting a commercial-scale storage project. In this study, CO2 injectivity was evaluated for different CS systems with an annual injection rate of 1 million metric tonnes (MMT) of CO2 considered as the minimum requirement for a commercial scale project. The objective of Task 2.5 is to assess key risks associated with storing CO2 in the different CS systems across the MRCI region and to demonstrate a method(s) for assessing these risks that may be used by developers of future CO2 storage projects in the region. The risk analysis was limited to evaluating two types of leakage risks (i.e., wellbore leakage, flow across unfractured caprock) at three modeled sites considered in Task 2.4.

MRCI,Report,Summary,Technical Challenges,dynamic m↗
DOE OSTI2021

SINGLE: Atomic-resolution structure identification of nanocrystals by graphene liquid cell EM

Analysis of the three-dimensional (3D) structures of nanocrystals with solution-phase transmission electron microscopy is beginning to reveal their unique physiochemical properties. We developed a “one-particle Brownian 3D reconstruction method” based on imaging of ensembles of colloidal nanocrystals using graphene liquid cell electron microscopy. Projection images of differently rotated nanocrystals are acquired using a direct electron detector with high temporal (<2.5 ms) resolution and analyzed to obtain an ensemble of 3D reconstructions. Here, we introduce computational methods required for successful atomic-resolution 3D reconstruction: (i) tracking of the individual particles throughout the time series, (ii) subtraction of the interfering background of the graphene liquid cell, (iii) identification and rejection of low-quality images, and (iv) tailored strategies for 2D/3D alignment and averaging that differ from those used in biological cryo–electron microscopy. Our developments are made available through the open-source software package SINGLE.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

A review of low-rank methods for time-dependent kinetic simulations

Time-dependent kinetic models are ubiquitous in computational science and engineering. The underlying integro-differential equations in these models are high-dimensional, comprised of a six–dimensional phase space, making simulations of such phenomena extremely expensive. In this article we demonstrate that in many situations, the solution to kinetics problems lives on a low dimensional manifold that can be described by a low-rank matrix or tensor approximation. We then review the recent development of so-called low-rank methods that evolve the solution on this manifold. The two classes of methods we review are the dynamical low-rank (DLR) method, which derives differential equations for the low-rank factors, and a Step-and-Truncate (SAT) approach, which projects the solution onto the low-rank representation after each time step. Thorough discussions of time integrators, tensor decompositions, and method properties such as structure preservation and computational efficiency are included. We further show examples of low-rank methods as applied to particle transport and plasma dynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards exact finite temperature electronic structure in solids and molecules (Final Technical Report)

This report describes the University of Iowa portion of a project that is now continuing at Michigan State University. We are developing novel methods, algorithms, and software to enable simulations of molecules and materials at high temperature. This is a key challenge in chemistry and materials science. By refining an approach called Density Matrix Quantum Monte Carlo (DMQMC), we developed faster and more accurate ways to conduct these simulations. These advances will help us understand how temperature affects the behavior of electrons, chemical bonds, and phase transitions in solids and molecules. These breakthroughs are especially important for applications where light and heat drive chemical reactions, superconductivity, and materials used in energy and sensing. In addition, this project involved the development of the open-source HANDE-QMC software package, supporting the broader community in benchmarking and developing finite-temperature electronic structure methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Characterizing Vulnerabilities Associated with Connected Lighting: Exploring Authorization Protocols

Cities are upgrading their infrastructure and converting traditional indoor and outdoor luminaires to Connected Lighting Systems equipped with sensors in an aggressive effort to reduce energy consumption, increase sustainability, and improve the quality of life. When you take something seemingly benign like a lighting system and connect it to the internet, if improperly secured a potential attack vector for hackers is created. Hackers could then access sensitive information, pivot into other networks, shut down services, or enslave devices to do their bidding. In attempt to close this attack vector and secure these systems, this paper extends previous work that investigated, compared and contrasted authentication vulnerabilities in Connected Lighting Systems that identified the need for additional testing and improved test method documentation. One additional authentication test and four new authorization tests were developed utilizing the Open Web Application Security Project (OWASP) as a test development and documentation guide. The new tests were integrated with the previous work to develop an updated test method with a focus on describing test procedures to make them easy to understand and repeat. In addition, a first Connected Lighting System use case was established to begin developing threat profiles that will aid in the identification of vulnerabilities whose focus areas extend beyond authentication and authorization. This use case describes the generation and flow of CLS data which assists in specifying methods to harden CLSs from outside interference and exploitation that can be implemented immediately on existing CLSs and as new products come to market.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local Explosion Detection and Infrasound Localization by Reverse Time Migration Using 3-D Finite-Difference Wave Propagation

Infrasound data are routinely used to detect and locate volcanic and other explosions, using both arrays and single sensor networks. However, at local distances (< km) topography often complicates acoustic propagation, resulting in inaccurate acoustic travel times leading to biased source locations when assuming straight-line propagation. Here we present a new method, termed Reverse Time Migration-Finite-Difference Time Domain (RTM-FDTD), that integrates numerical modeling into the standard RTM back-projection process. Travel time information is computed across the entire potential source grid via FDTD modeling to incorporate the effects of topography. The waveforms are then back-projected and stacked at each grid point, with the stack maximum corresponding to the likely source. We apply our method to three volcanoes with different network configurations, source-receiver distances, and topography. At Yasur Volcano, Vanuatu, RTM-FDTD locates explosions within ~20 m of the source and differentiates between multiple vents. RTM-FDTD produces a more accurate location for the two Yasur subcraters than standard RTM and doubles the number of detected events. At Sakurajima Volcano, Japan, RTM-FDTD locates the source within 50 m of the active vent despite notable topographic blocking. The RTM-FDTD location is similar to that from the Time Reversal Mirror method, but is more computationally efficient. Lastly, at Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska, RTM and RTM-FDTD both produce realistic source locations (<50 m) for ground-coupled airwaves recorded on a four-station seismic network. We show that RTM is an effective method to detect and locate infrasonic sources across a variety of scenarios, and by integrating numerical modeling, RTM-FDTD produces more accurate source locations and increases the detection capability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven Community-centered Resilient Assessment and Planning Toolkit for Nexus of Energy and Water (DCRAPT-NEW)

Urban areas, including Detroit and Pittsburgh, have suffered significant dual outages of the electrical and water infrastructure in the past decade due, in part, to the increasing number of extreme weather events. With increasing temperatures and rainfall intensity, these regions need to prepare for increasing extreme events through community-based energy and water resilience analysis, planning, and enhancement. This project developed a suite of open-source, open-access, community-centered, data-driven assessment and distributed energy resource (DER) and planning tools for energy and water resilience enhancement in urban areas. Through establishing a multi-level community awareness and engagement mechanism and a comprehensive collection of power outage and flooding data, an innovative group of community energy and water resilience assessment and planning tools have been developed for a wide range of users with differing and variable sets of data available to them. The developed tools include (1) DOE EAGLE-I data-driven, deep-learning assisted resilience assessment and DER planning tools at the county level with socioeconomic factors incorporated; (2) Utility annual power outage data-driven tools for long term resilience assessment and DER planning and 15-min power outage data-driven tools for short term resilience assessment and planning; (3) Detailed engineering tools for energy and water systems resilience assessment and planning when the system topology and component fragility curves are available; (4) Alternative Resiliency Metric Calculation that extracts and separates outage and restoration processes; and (5) Co-optimization tools that evaluate the resilience of the power and sewage system and allow users to conduct joint planning with energy and wastewater systems. The developed tools provide planners, decision-makers, and stakeholders with powerful capabilities to systematically evaluate system/community resilience and optimal and actionable guidance for enhancing resilience while prioritizing DER investments. The tools have been used and validated in Detroit and Pittsburgh and can be used in other areas of the nation. In addition, this project will (1) advance the knowledge and applications of machine-learning methods in analyzing and fusing different layers of information and generating meaningful data points such as generating rare weather events; (2) significantly improve the energy and water resilience of the identified communities in Detroit and Pittsburgh and prepare for more frequent and severe weather conditions; (3) help communities assess extreme weather event impacts and address short-term and long-term resilience-related issues The developed tools have been made public via GitHub and demonstrated to community stakeholders and utility companies via the two annual workshops and numerous community engagement meetings. The project outcomes are also disseminated through publications in various journals and conference proceedings, and presentations at top conferences.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enabling the Broader Use of MOOSE for Nuclear Energy and Other Simulation

This Final Scientific and Technical Report summarizes work performed under the Phase IIA SBIR project “Enabling the Broader Use of MOOSE for Nuclear Energy and Other Simulation” (DE-SC0020906) from August 2023 through August 2025. The objective of the Phase IIA effort was to mature and harden capabilities developed during Phase II, with the goal of enabling practical interoperability between Coreform’s isogeometric analysis (IGA) technologies and the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), while improving robustness, performance, and scalability for complex, nuclear-relevant geometries. Over the course of Phase IIA, the project established and validated an extraction-based interoperability pathway between Coreform tools and MOOSE. A combined mesh and matrix format was defined collaboratively with MOOSE developers and integrated into the solver, enabling standard MOOSE workflows to operate on data exported from Coreform’s IGA and Flex Representation Method (FRM) pipelines. Early demonstrations validated architectural compatibility using linear solid mechanics problems, while later efforts focused on benchmark testing and external use. By the end of the project period, engineers at BWXT were able to independently set up and execute a simulation using the Coreform–MOOSE workflow and provide direct feedback that informed further refinement. In parallel, substantial effort was devoted to improving the robustness of trimmed U-spline construction for complex CAD geometries. A growing test suite of nuclear-relevant models was compiled through collaboration with multiple stakeholders and used to drive extensive bug fixing and reliability improvements. These efforts resulted in improved robustness and performance, including the addition of fallback capabilities that enhance reliability when the underlying commercial CAD kernel fails. Performance-oriented work progressed later in the project, with the development and demonstration of methods to decompose complex geometries into structured subregions and updated data representations to support more efficient solver processing. Additionally, extensive enhancements to threadsafe parallel data structures and trimming operations established a foundation for scalable processing of large assemblies. Collaboration with Sandia National Laboratories on the SGM geometric modeling kernel advanced to a functioning interface test case, positioning the workflow for future kernel integration. Overall, the Phase IIA effort successfully transitioned the project from architectural proof-of-concept to externally exercised, solver-integrated capability, while clarifying remaining technical challenges related to standardization, performance optimization, and kernel integration.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Future projections and uncertainty assessment of precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula from the CMIP5 ensemble

Abstract Projections of changes in extreme climate are sometimes predicted by multimodel ensemble methods that combine forecasts from individual simulation models using weighted averaging. One method to assign weight to each model is the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in which posterior probability is used. For the cases of extreme climate, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is typically used. We applied the approach of GEV‐embedded BMA to a series of 35 years of the annual maximum daily precipitation data (both historical data and data gathered from simulation experiments for future periods) over the Korean peninsula as simulated by the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulation data under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used. Observed data and 17 CMIP5 models for 12 gird cells in Korea have been examined to predict future changes in precipitation extremes. A simple regional frequency analysis of pooling observations from three stations in each cell was employed to reduce the estimation variance and local fluctuations. A bias correction technique using the regression‐type transfer function was applied to these simulation data. Return levels spanning over 20 and 50 years, as well as the return periods relative to the reference years (1971–2005), were estimated for two future periods, namely Period 1 (2021–2050) and Period 2 (2066–2095). From these analyses, relative increase observed in the spatially averaged 20‐year (50‐year) return level was approximately 23% (16%) and 45% (36%) in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 experiments, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. We concluded that extreme rainfalls will likely occur two times and four times more frequently in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, as compared to in the reference years by the end of the 21st century.

Lee, Youngsaeng↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projection-to-Born-improved subtractions at NNLO

While the current frontier in fixed-order precision for collider observables is N 3 LO, important steps are necessary to consolidate NNLO cross-section predictions with improved stability and efficiency. Slicing methods have been successfully applied to obtain NNLO and N 3 LO predictions, but have shown poor performance in the presence of fiducial cuts due to large kinematical power corrections. In this paper we implement Projection-to-Born-improved q T (P2B q T ) and jettiness (P2Bτ 0 ) subtractions for a large class of color singlet processes in MCFM. This method allows for the efficient evaluation of fiducial power corrections in any non-local subtraction scheme using a Projection-to-Born subtraction. We demonstrate the significant numerical improvements of this method based on fiducial Drell-Yan and Higgs cross-sections. Moreover, with fiducial power corrections removed via this method, the leading-logarithmic power corrections that have only been calculated without fiducial cuts can be included, further improving the calculations. For di-photon production with photon isolation, we devise a novel method in combination with P2B-improved subtractions, which we name P2B γ τ 0 , and P2B γ q T for the two subtraction schemes, respectively. This method allows the inclusion of both fiducial power corrections due to kinematic cuts on the photons and a set of isolation power corrections in the fragmentation channel where a quark may enter the isolation cone. We find significant improvements in the convergence of NNLO di-photon cross-sections with photon isolation cuts, demonstrating that it is possible to achieve a stable and efficient calculation of di-photon cross-sections using slicing methods.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

CUF-Links: Continuous and Ubiquitous FAIRness Linkages for Reproducible Research

Despite much creative work on methods and tools, reproducibility— the ability to repeat the computational steps used to obtain a research result—remains elusive. One reason for these difficulties is that extant tools for capturing research processes, while powerful, often fail to capture vital connections as research projects grow in extent and complexity. We explain here how these interstitial connections can be preserved via simple methods that integrate easily with current work practices to capture basic information about every data product consumed or produced in a project. By thus extending the scope of findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) data in both time and space to enable the creation of a continuous chain of Continuous and Ubiquitous FAIRness linkages (CUFlinks) from inputs to outputs, such mechanisms can facilitate capture of the provenance linkages that are essential to reproducible research. Herein we give examples of mechanisms that can facilitate the use of these methods, and review how they have been applied in practice.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inverse Reinforcement Learning based Bayesian Goal Inference Method for Early Nuclear Proliferation Detection

Traditional methods for detection of nuclear proliferation indicators are usually applied after nuclear proliferation has already occurred. There is a need to advance these methods to perform early detection of nuclear proliferation indicators. In this project, we formulated an early detection problem as a sequential, decision-making, goal inference problem based on research publications of authors, to determine whether it is possible to infer whether an author will publish on a research activity before it has occurred. To develop and test our approach, we selected a civil nuclear activity for our case study. We constructed a state-action-state transition graph from publications of authors associated with the activity and the co-authors of their publications, using titles, abstracts, and author publication sequences. We then used inverse reinforcement learning to model the goal-directed behavior of authors in trajectories that terminate at selected goal states. Using a Bayesian formulation, we computed the probability that authors would reach each selected state from partially observed trajectories of their state transitions in their research topic space. The state with the highest probability was selected as the most probable goal state. Based on our results, we found that 60% of the times we can infer the correct goal state early; sometimes the inference is either delayed, or multiple states could be inferred as goal states. Overall, our results show that it is possible to perform early detection of research activities of authors in a nuclear technology area. Further research is necessary to establish a more accurate understanding of how topic modeling, topic space grid discretization, and the extent of overlap among trajectories of different goal states, affect the goal inference results. The methods developed in this work may be used to enhance data-driven methods for early detection of nuclear proliferation indicators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗