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NASA NTRS2012

A Regional CO2 Observing System Simulation Experiment Using ASCENDS Observations and WRF-STILT Footprints

Knowledge of the spatiotemporal variations in emissions and uptake of CO2 is hampered by sparse measurements. The recent advent of satellite measurements of CO2 concentrations is increasing the density of measurements, and the future mission ASCENDS (Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days and Seasons) will provide even greater coverage and precision. Lagrangian atmospheric transport models run backward in time can quantify surface influences ("footprints") of diverse measurement platforms and are particularly well suited for inverse estimation of regional surface CO2 fluxes at high resolution based on satellite observations. We utilize the STILT Lagrangian particle dispersion model, driven by WRF meteorological fields at 40-km resolution, in a Bayesian synthesis inversion approach to quantify the ability of ASCENDS column CO2 observations to constrain fluxes at high resolution. This study focuses on land-based biospheric fluxes, whose uncertainties are especially large, in a domain encompassing North America. We present results based on realistic input fields for 2007. Pseudo-observation random errors are estimated from backscatter and optical depth measured by the CALIPSO satellite. We estimate a priori flux uncertainties based on output from the CASA-GFED (v.3) biosphere model and make simple assumptions about spatial and temporal error correlations. WRF-STILT footprints are convolved with candidate vertical weighting functions for ASCENDS. We find that at a horizontal flux resolution of 1 degree x 1 degree, ASCENDS observations are potentially able to reduce average weekly flux uncertainties by 0-8% in July, and 0-0.5% in January (assuming an error of 0.5 ppm at the Railroad Valley reference site). Aggregated to coarser resolutions, e.g. 5 degrees x 5 degrees, the uncertainty reductions are larger and more similar to those estimated in previous satellite data observing system simulation experiments.

Wang, James S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

$\testit{d}$-wave superconductivity and Bogoliubov-Fermi surfaces in Rarita-Schwinger-Weyl semimetals

In this work, we uncover the properties of complex tensor ($\textit{d}$-wave) superconducting order in three-dimensional Rarita-Schwinger-Weyl semimetals that host pseudospin-$\frac{3}{2}$ fermions at a fourfold linear band-crossing point. Although the general theory of $\textit{d}$-wave order was originally developed for materials displaying quadratic band touching, it directly applies to the case of semimetals with linear dispersion, several candidate compounds of which have been discovered experimentally very recently. The spin-$\frac{3}{2}$ nature of the fermions allows for the formation of spin-2 Cooper pairs which may be described by a complex second-rank tensor order parameter. In the case of linear dispersion, for the chemical potential at the Fermi point and at strong coupling, the energetically preferred superconducting state is the uniaxial nematic state, which preserves time-reversal symmetry and provides a full (anisotropic) gap for quasiparticle excitations. In contrast, at a finite chemical potential, we find that the usual weak-coupling instability is toward the “cyclic state,” well known from the studies of multicomponent Bose-Einstein condensates, which breaks time-reversal symmetry maximally, has vanishing average value of angular momentum, and features 16 small Bogoliubov-Fermi surfaces. The Rarita-Schwinger-Weyl semimetals provide therefore the first example of weakly coupled, three-dimensional, isotropic $\textit{d}$-wave superconductors where the $\textit{d}$-wave superconducting phase is uniquely selected by the quartic expansion of the mean-field free energy, and is not afflicted by the accidental degeneracy first noticed by Mermin over 40 years ago. We discuss the appearance and stability of the Bogoliubov-Fermi surfaces in absence of inversion symmetry in the electronic Hamiltonian, as in the case at hand.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS2020

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4/yr (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4/yr or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4/yr or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4/yr larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4/yr larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4/yr, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30° N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4/yr lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4/yr by 8 Tg CH4/yr, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.

methane budget↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Experimental Feasibility Study on Applying Neutron Tomography to Encapsulated Spent Nuclear Fuel - 20050

Visual inspection makes easier to ensure the integrity and safety of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) than any classical techniques. Various classical techniques have been applied but there are no reliable methods to qualitatively and quantitatively verify spent fuel in dry storage. Thus, the present authors have developed the prototype safeguards apparatus for dry storage employing the array of He-4 gas scintillation detectors (S670E, Arktis Radiation Detectors Ltd., Switzerland), newly designed to simultaneously measure thermal and fast neutrons without any moderators. The S670E detector has a cylindrical shape with a diameter of 52 mm and active length of 600 mm (total length: 875 mm). The detector is filled by He-4 gas with an approximate pressure of 180 bar for fast neutron detection, and its inner wall is coated by Li-6 for thermal neutron detection. The scintillation lights generated via Li-6 nuclear reaction and elastic scattering are collected by 24 SiPMs linearly paired at the center of the detector. The detector delivers a TTL (Transistor-Transistor Logic) output for pulse readout and UART (Universal Asynchronous Receiver Transmitter) for device control. In order to assess feasibility of the apparatus, an experimental system has been designed, built, and optimized via computational studies. Cf-252 neutron sources and linearly arrayed detectors, working as a single detector, were occupied for this study due to the difficulties in working with SNF. The laboratory scale cask (diameter: 0.67 m, height: 1.5 m), minimized by a factor of 10 compared to the actual thickness of a commercial TN-32 cask, was also manufactured. The detector array was designed to rotate the lab-scale cask and obtain 36 image profiles at every 10 degrees. All profiles were aligned in single frame image called a sinogram, and the cross-sectional image was then fabricated by the inverse radon transform algorithm. These experiments have been repeated with different configurations and numbers of sources. Some gamma-ray sources were also measured with neutron sources in order to distinguish between neutron and gamma-ray pulses. Basically, a He-4 detector is designed to run on Linux OS so it is difficult to directly apply to Windows-based equipment widely used in S. Korea. Therefore, a new data acquisition board working on Windows OS was designed and built. The board mainly consists of FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array) and SoC (System on Chip) for TTL pulse readout, sorting measured data, and transferring data to a user interface. In conclusion, the tomographic system at lab-scale has shown considerable potential to detect a partial or gross defect of encapsulated assemblies in dry storage. Next steps of this study will be to 1) repeatedly carry out experiments to demonstrate scientific reliability and validity, and 2) numerically integrate signals with weight factors to enhance the image quality since the suggested system based on passive interrogation method requires longer measurement time. Finally, the system will apply to a commercial dry storage phased out soon in S. Korea. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evidence of Polarization‐Type Potential‐Induced Degradation (PID‐p) in the Field and Investigation of the Recovery Mechanism on Bifacial p ‐PERC Modules

This study investigates the polarization-type potential-induced degradation (PID-p) of bifacial glass/glass p-type passivated emitter rear contact (p-PERC) modules in the field and their recovery behavior. Modules were installed with three mounting configurations providing different albedo conditions. System voltage (–600, –1500, and +1500 V) was applied to the cell circuits, with respect to the grounded module frames. No degradation was observed for positively biased modules, but PID-p was identified on the rear side when cells are negatively biased, with maximum power dropping during the first days and stabilizing at values up to 8% loss. Electroluminescence images revealed a variation of the cells' PID-p susceptibility within a module. Three parameters were shown to impact the degradation rate: rear albedo light, voltage, and wetness conditions. Degraded modules were recovered either by (1) a positive bias (+1500 V), (2) outdoor illumination with the front side facing sun, (3) outdoor illumination with the rear side facing sun, or (4) dark storage. A recovery pattern was identified with I–V parameters decreasing to a local minimum before increasing to full recovery. The proposed mechanism is based on the band bending at the rear p-type Si/AlO x/SiN x interface, going from inversion to depletion and accumulation states. Full recovery was achieved in 2–7 h for the modules recovered with the rear side facing sun, four to eight nights for the modules positively biased at night, and 10–20 days for the modules with the front side facing sun. Dark storage showed slower recovery rates as I–V parameters were not improving even after 1 month. Here, the recovery rates were correlated with the net Coulombs transferred during the preceding PID stress: When more Coulombs are transferred during the degradation, the extent of degradation is greater, leading to slower recovery rates.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Ultra-Intense Long-Wave Infrared Lasers: New Frontiers in Fundamental and Applied Research

This review explores two main topics: the state-of-the-art and emerging capabilities of high-peak-power, ultrafast (picosecond and femtosecond) long-wave infrared (LWIR) laser technology based on CO2 gas laser amplifiers, and the current and advanced scientific applications of this laser class. The discussion is grounded in expertise gained at the Accelerator Test Facility (ATF) of Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), a leading center for ultrafast, high-power CO2 laser development and a National User Facility with a strong track record in high-intensity physics experiments. We begin by reviewing the status of 9–10 μm CO2 laser technology and its applications, before exploring potential breakthroughs, including the realization of 100 terawatt femtosecond pulses. These advancements will drive ongoing research in electron and ion acceleration in plasma, along with applications in secondary radiation sources and atmospheric energy transport. Throughout the review, we highlight how wavelength scaling of physical effects enhances the capabilities of ultra-intense lasers in the LWIR spectrum, expanding the frontiers of both fundamental and applied science.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computational Investigation of a CO 2 Conversion Strategy via Diels–Alder Reaction in a Carbon Capture Solvent

Molecular-level insights into reactive separations are crucial for the design of new conversion pathways of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). This work explores a postulated pathway that directs CO 2 to undergo inverse-electron-demand Diels–Alder reactions to produce heterocycles using the CO 2 chemically fixed on water-lean solvent molecules. Density functional theory calculations are applied to evaluate the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO) energies of three types of reactants (1,3-butadiene, 1,3-cyclohexadiene, and 1,2,4,5-tetrazine) with various functional substituents. These calculations also provide a data set (5.8k data) for developing a machine learning model to efficiently predict LUMO energies. A computational screening of LUMO energies for an additional 47k diene and tetrazine candidates is performed, and a list of candidates with lowered LUMO energies by electron-withdrawing substituents is provided. These candidates are further examined by their reaction energy barriers computed from the interatomic potential or density functional theory. Two major energy barriers are identified, one for the proton transfer within the water-lean solvent and the other for the CO 2 transfer from the solvent molecule to the reactant candidate (diene or tetrazine). The functional substituents have a more significant impact on the second barrier but a very slight one on the first barrier. This exploratory work demonstrates a new possibility for guiding experimental efforts toward the chemical conversion of fixated CO 2 to value-added compounds.

Chemical reactions↗

DOE OSTI2020

Linear and nonlinear optical responses in the chiral multifold semimetal RhSi

Chiral topological semimetals are materials that break both inversion and mirror symmetries. They host interesting phenomena such as the quantized circular photogalvanic effect (CPGE) and the chiral magnetic effect. In this work, we report a comprehensive theoretical and experimental analysis of the linear and nonlinear optical responses of the chiral topological semimetal RhSi, which is known to host multifold fermions. We show that the characteristic features of the optical conductivity, which display two distinct quasi-linear regimes above and below 0.4 eV, can be linked to excitations of different kinds of multifold fermions. The characteristic features of the CPGE, which displays a sign change at 0.4 eV and a large non-quantized response peak of around 160 μA/V 2 at 0.7 eV, are explained by assuming that the chemical potential crosses a flat hole band at the Brillouin zone center. Our theory predicts that, in order to observe a quantized CPGE in RhSi, it is necessary to increase the chemical potential as well as the quasiparticle lifetime. More broadly, our methodology, especially the development of the broadband terahertz emission spectroscopy, could be widely applied to study photogalvanic effects in noncentrosymmetric materials and in topological insulators in a contact-less way and accelerate the technological development of efficient infrared detectors based on topological semimetals.

Materials Science↗

NASA NTRS1985

Geophysical Interpretation of Venus Gravity Data

The subsurface distribution of Venus was investigated through the analysis of the data from Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO). In particular, the Doppler tracking data were used to map the gravitational potential. These were compared to the topographic data from the PVO radar (ORAD). In order to obtain an unbiased comparison, the topography data obtained from the PVO-ORAD were filtered to introduce distortions which are the same as those of the gravity models. Both the gravity and filtered topography maps are derived by two stage processes with a common second stage. In the first stage, the topography was used to calculate a corresponding spacecraft acceleration under the assumptions that the topography has a uniform given density and no compensation. In the second stage, the acceleration measures found in the first stage were passed through a linear inverter to yield maps of gravity and topography. Because these maps are the result of the same inversion process, they contain the same distortion; a comparison between them is unbiased to first order.

Reasenberg, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Characterization of Transport Errors in Chemical Forecasts from a Global Tropospheric Chemical Transport Model

We propose a new methodology to characterize errors in the representation of transport processes in chemical transport models. We constrain the evaluation of a global three-dimensional chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) with an extended dataset of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations obtained during the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft campaign. The TRACEP mission took place over the western Pacific, a region frequently impacted by continental outflow associated with different synoptic-scale weather systems (such as cold fronts) and deep convection, and thus provides a valuable dataset. for our analysis. Model simulations using both forecast and assimilated meteorology are examined. Background CO concentrations are computed as a function of latitude and altitude and subsequently subtracted from both the observed and the model datasets to focus on the ability of the model to simulate variability on a synoptic scale. Different sampling strategies (i.e., spatial displacement and smoothing) are applied along the flight tracks to search for systematic model biases. Statistical quantities such as correlation coefficient and centered root-mean-square difference are computed between the simulated and the observed fields and are further inter-compared using Taylor diagrams. We find no systematic bias in the model for the TRACE-P region when we consider the entire dataset (i.e., from the surface to 12 km ). This result indicates that the transport error in our model is globally unbiased, which has important implications for using the model to conduct inverse modeling studies. Using the First-Look assimilated meteorology only provides little improvement of the correlation, in comparison with the forecast meteorology. These general statements can be refined when the entire dataset is divided into different vertical domains, i.e., the lower troposphere (less than 2 km), the middle troposphere (2-6 km), and the upper troposphere (greater than 6 km). The best agreement between the observations and the model is found in the lower and middle troposphere. Downward displacements in the lower troposphere provide a better fit with the observed value, which could indicate a problem in the representation of boundary layer height in the model. Significant improvement is also found for downward and southward displacements in the upper troposphere. There are several potential sources of errors in our simulation of the continental outflow in the upper troposphere which could lead to such biases, including the location and/or the strength of deep convective cells as well as that of wildfires in Southeast Asia.

Bey, I.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ensemble Kalman filter for data assimilation coupled with low-resolution computations techniques applied in fluid dynamics

This paper presents an innovative Reduced-order model (ROM) for merging experimental and simulation data using data assimilation (DA) to estimate the "True" state of a fluid dynamics system, leading to more accurate predictions. Our methodology introduces a novel approach by implementing the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) within a reduced-dimensional framework, grounded in a robust theoretical foundation and applied to fluid dynamics. To address the substantial computational demands of DA, the proposed ROM employs low-resolution (LR) techniques to drastically reduce computational costs. This innovative approach involves downsampling datasets for DA computations, followed by an advanced reconstruction technique based on low-cost singular value decomposition (lcSVD). The lcSVD method, a key innovation in this paper, has never been applied to DA before and offers a highly efficient way to enhance resolution with minimal computational resources. Our results demonstrate significant reductions in both computation time and RAM usage through these LR techniques without compromising the accuracy of the estimations. For instance, in a turbulent test case, for a data compression rate of 15.9, the LR approach can achieve a speed-up of 13.7 and a RAM compression of 90.9% while maintaining a low relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of 2.6%, compared to 0.8% in the high-resolution (HR) reference. Furthermore, we highlight the effectiveness of the EnKF in estimating and predicting the state of fluid flow systems based on limited observations and given low-fidelity numerical data. This paper highlights the potential of the proposed DA method in fluid dynamics applications, particularly for improving computational efficiency in CFD and related fields. Its ability to balance accuracy with low computational and memory costs makes it especially suitable for large-scale and real-time applications, such as environmental monitoring or engineering design. This method will be incorporated into ModelFLOWs-app.

Data Assimilation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Perspectives for self-driving labs in synthetic biology

Self-driving labs (SDLs) combine fully automated experiments and data collection with artificial intelligence (AI) and control algorithms that decide not only the set of parameters for the next experiment, but also potentially which scientific hypotheses to test. Taken to their ultimate expression, SDLs could usher a new paradigm of scientific research, where the world is probed, interpreted, and explained by machines for human benefit. Whereas there are functioning SDLs in the fields of chemistry and materials science, we contend that synthetic biology provides a unique opportunity since the genome provides a single, easily accessible, target for affecting the incredibly wide repertoire of biological cell behavior. Since they can provide large amounts of high-quality data, SDLs can be a platform for AI to develop approaches to systematically convert data into scientific knowledge systems. These knowledge systems can be used both to understand the biological world and to design bioengineered systems to fit a desired specification (inverse design). However, the level of investment required for the creation of biological SDLs is only warranted if directed towards solving difficult and enabling biological questions. Here, we discuss challenges and opportunities in creating SDLs for synthetic biology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Semiconductor-compatible topological digital alloys

Recently, GeSn alloys have attracted much interest for direct-gap infrared photonics and as potential topological materials which are compatible with the semiconductor industry. However, for photonics, the high-Sn content required leads to low detectivity, associated with poor material quality, and the (>35 %) Sn required for topological properties have been out of reach experimentally. Here, we demonstrate that by patterning the Sn distribution within Ge, the electronic properties have a far greater tunability than is possible with the random alloy. For the GeSn δ-digital alloy (DA) formed by confining Sn atoms in atomic layer(s) along the [111] direction of Ge, we show that ∼ 10 % Sn can lead to a triple-point semimetal. These findings are understood in terms of Sn ordering causing spatial separation of Sn and Ge band edges, leading to band inversion. This mechanism can also lead to a weak topological insulator, Weyl semimetal, and enables tunable direct bandgaps down to 2 meV, covering the entire infrared range. This DA induced topological properties are also identified in compound semiconductors, such as InAs 1-x Sb x , showing the general applicability of the DA design for realizing topological properties on conventional semiconductor platforms. Furthermore, our findings not only point to a new class of currently unexplored topological systems accessible by epitaxy, but also establish the promise of low-Sn GeSn DAs for application as infrared laser diodes and photodetectors in Si photonic integrated circuits and infrared image sensors.

3D topological semimetal↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear Data Adjustment for Nonlinear Applications in the OECD/NEA WPNCS SG14 Benchmark -- A Bayesian Inverse UQ-based Approach for Data Assimilation

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety (WPNCS) proposed a benchmark exercise to assess the performance of current nuclear data adjustment techniques applied to nonlinear applications and experiments with low correlation to applications. This work introduces Bayesian Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ) as a method for nuclear data adjustments in this benchmark, and compares IUQ to the more traditional methods of Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) and Monte Carlo Bayes (MOCABA). Posterior predictions from IUQ showed agreement with GLLS and MOCABA for linear applications. When comparing GLLS, MOCABA, and IUQ posterior predictions to computed model responses using adjusted parameters, we observe that GLLS predictions fail to replicate computed response distributions for nonlinear applications, while MOCABA shows near agreement, and IUQ uses computed model responses directly. We also discuss observations on why experiments with low correlation to applications can be informative to nuclear data adjustments and identify some properties useful in selecting experiments for inclusion in nuclear data adjustment. Performance in this benchmark indicates potential for Bayesian IUQ in nuclear data adjustments.

FOS: Computer and information sciences↗

NASA NTRS1982

Evaluation of a trajectory command concept for manual control of carrier approaches and landings

A novel trajectory control system concept was implemented to provide manual control of a conventional jet aircraft. This concept, called Total Aircraft Flight Control System (TAFCOS), utilizes an inverse model of the aerodynamic and propulsion characteristics and employs feedforward control to provide the required acceleration command. The concept requires on-board digital computations which can easily be handled by a modern airborne computer. The system was studied in a piloted simulation of the carrier approach and landing task with primarily visual flight and guidance cues. The principal modes of vertical flight-path control investigated were vertical velocity command and vertical acceleration command. The study included manual carrier approaches with and without moderate ship motion and associated air disturbances, and tests of the effects of discrete gusts. Manual control of flight path through this new concept was shown to be feasible as an addition to an automatic control system and to have potential as an improved mode of control over conventional control for the carrier approach task.

Mcneill, W. E.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Idaho Wildfires II: Assessing the Relationship Between Drought Indicators and Wildfire Risk to Enhance Hazard Modeling and Inform Mitigation Planning

The western United States has experienced twenty years of increased and prolonged drought which have exacerbated wildfire hazards. These jeopardize population centers through increased risks to ecosystem services, local economies, and livelihoods. The Idaho Office of Emergency Management, Water Resources, and Department of Lands are seeking methods to dynamically monitor these conditions and update models that inform hazard mitigation planning and resource allocation. Towards this, these agencies partnered with NASA DEVELOP to produce drought-enhanced wildfire hazard models. Part of a two-term project, the two teams revised the state’s static wildfire hazard model with refined data layers and remotely-sensed data to reflect dynamic ecosystem responses to drought conditions and wildfire potential. Our team distinguished between rangeland and forestland ecosystems, and investigated relationships between drought metrics and vegetation condition using TerrSet Earth Trends Modeler. This analysis determined that total precipitation at a 5-month lag interval (r 2 = 0.72) along with the Evaporative Stress Index (r 2 = 0.69); and precipitation at a 5-month interval (r 2 = 0.42) were important drivers in rangeland and forestland, respectively. These driver variables were incorporated into a temporally dynamic wildfire hazard map. Our team used linear regression to correlate hazard ratings with wildfire frequency. For the year 2020, neither the enhanced hazard model (p < 0.10, r 2 = 0.01) nor the state’s static model (p < 0.05, r 2 = 0.03) were strongly correlated with actual wildfire frequency as they expressed an inverse relationship between wildfire hazard and frequency. This suggests wildfire occurrence is complex and not necessarily driven by the variables used.

Wildfire↗

DOE OSTI2020

Anomalously Suppressed Thermal Conduction by Electron-Phonon Coupling in Charge-Density-Wave Tantalum Disulfide

Charge and thermal transport in a crystal is carried by free electrons and phonons (quantized lattice vibration), the two most fundamental quasiparticles. Above the Debye temperature of the crystal, phonon-mediated thermal conductivity ( κ L ) is typically limited by mutual scattering of phonons, which results in κ L decreasing with inverse temperature, whereas free electrons play a negligible role in κ L . Here, an unusual case in charge-density-wave tantalum disulfide (1T-TaS 2 ) is reported, in which κ L is limited instead by phonon scattering with free electrons, resulting in a temperature-independent κ L . In this system, the conventional phonon–phonon scattering is alleviated by its uniquely structured phonon dispersions, while unusually strong electron-phonon (e-ph) coupling arises from its Fermi surface strongly nested at wavevectors in which phonons exhibit Kohn anomalies. The unusual temperature dependence of thermal conduction is found as a consequence of these effects. The finding reveals new physics of thermal conduction, offers a unique platform to probe e-ph interactions, and provides potential ways to control heat flow in materials with free charge carriers. The temperature-independent thermal conductivity may also find thermal management application as a special thermal interface material between two systems when the heat conduction between them needs to be maintained at a constant level.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

How much information on precipitation is contained in satellite infrared imagery?

Satellite infrared (IR) brightness temperature providing information on the characteristics of cloud tops is one of the primary input data used for estimating precipitation from satellites. Thus, the natural questions to ask are: Does IR imagery contain more information about precipitation in some regions more than others? What are the factors that lead to such differences? Should we expect the amount of information provided by IR imagery to change with respect to temporal or spatial aggregation? Comprehensive analysis of the accuracy of satellite-based precipitation estimates obtained from any given algorithm may provide qualitative answers to the above questions. However, such an approach only offers conclusions within the limited context of the algorithm used to obtain precipitation estimates; that is, patterns caused by the inherent information content of IR imagery are inextricable from those induced by assumptions embedded in the precipitation estimation algorithm. Here, we address the abovementioned questions from a different perspective using an information-theoretic measure, free of structural assumptions and general to a wide range of relationships, to characterize the average and seasonal dependence between IR imagery provided by satellite sensors in the spectral range (10.7–11.5 μm) and precipitation rates in the contiguous United States (CONUS) across distinct temporal and spatial scales. We analyze a total of more than 1.3 billion pairs of IR and precipitation observations over CONUS, and we observe interesting patterns. First, we show that there is a strong inverse relationship (ρ = - 0.73) between the information content of IR data and the number of no-rain observations; however, its robustness varies regionally and seasonally with less significant correlation during the warm season. Second, we demonstrate that the intuitive relationship of increasing dependence between IR and precipitation as a result of temporal or spatial aggregation exhibits a diminishing returns behavior. For instance, temporal aggregation from 1 to 3 h increases the dependence approximately 7 times as much as temporal aggregation from 12 to 24 h. Furthermore, we quantitatively examine and re-confirm several statements previously reported in the literature such as the strong association between IR and precipitation in convective storms and the low association in orographic rainfall. Finally, we conclude by illustrating the potential of the analysis in diagnosis of operational algorithms for estimating precipitation from IR brightness temperature. The findings of this study pinpoint spatial domains and time scales at which IR is not an adequate proxy for estimating precipitation. Thus, they can potentially guide the development of operational algorithms that utilize satellite Infrared imagery for estimating, downscaling and data fusion of precipitation. Finally, the analysis presented here opens up the possibility of developing new methodologies for diagnosis of satellite-based precipitation estimation algorithms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗