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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Investigating performance and variability of NIF ICF experiments with deep learning

The parameter space involved in designing an inertial confinement fusion shot at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) is massively multi-dimensional and the cost of a single shot makes a comprehensive set of sensitivity studies in the laboratory impractical. The use of machine learning to overcome these challenges has gained popularity and has had several successful applications by the scientific community. We extend on these efforts by training a neural network (NN) on information about the experimental design, engineering elements, and drive asymmetry to predict with uncertainty the neutron yield of an experiment. We find the measured and model predicted values are in good agreement, with an R 2 value of 0.91 for a randomly selected test dataset. Almost all the predicted 95% credible intervals contain the corresponding measured value for both training and test datasets. We identify correlations picked up by the NN between the shot design, yield, and variability and use them to motivate shot sensitivity studies. The first shot to exceed the Lawson-like ignition criteria (N210808) was conducted at the NIF and subsequent shots studied the design’s robustness. In a follow-up shot to N210808, our model predicts capsule quality to be the main performance degradation mechanism that prevented the shot from repeating previous performance levels. Shot N221204 was the first shot to exceed a target energy gain of 1. Our model predicts increased yield with reduced coast time for a N221204 study and greater variability for designs with lower peak powers at constant yield. The model’s fast prediction speed and uncertainty prediction are useful for identifying interesting design paths that could warrant further investigation with conventional simulations to search for robust high yield designs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1992

Precision X-band radio Doppler and ranging navigation: Mars Observer interplanetary cruise scenario

This article describes an error covariance analysis based on a Mars Observer mission scenario; the study was performed to establish the navigation performance that can potentially be achieved in a demonstration of precision two-way X-band (8.4-GHz) Doppler and ranging with the Mars Observer spacecraft planned for next year, and to evaluate the sensitivity of the predicted performance to variations in ground system error modeling assumptions. Orbit determination error statistics computed for a 182-day Doppler and ranging data arc predicted Mars approach orbit determination accuracies of about 0.45 micro-rad in an angular sense, using a conservative ground system error model as a baseline. When less-conservative error model assumptions were employed, it was found that orbit determination accuracies of 0.19 to 0.30 micro-rad could be obtained; the level of accuracy of the assumed Mars ephemeris is about 0.11 micro-rad. In comparison, Doppler-only performance with the baseline error model was predicted to be about 1.30 to 1.51 micro-rad, although it was found that when improved station location accuracies and Global Positioning System-based tropospheric calibration accuracies were assumed, accuracies of 0.44 to 0.52 micro-rad were predicted. In the Doppler plus ranging cases, the results were relatively insensitive to variations in ranging system and station delay calibration uncertainties of a few meters and tropospheric zenith delay calibration uncertainties of a few centimeters.

Estefan, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

SPARCLE: Validation of Observing System Simulations (SPace Readiness Coherent Lidar Experiment)

NASA recently approved a mission to fly a Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL) on a U.S. Space Shuttle. SPARCLE, managed by Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, is targeted for launch in March 2001. This mission is viewed as a necessary demonstration of a solid state (2 micron) lidar using coherent detection before committing resources to a 3-5 year research or operational mission. While, to many, this shuttle mission is seen as the first step in a series leading to a fully operational wind observing system, to others, it is a chance to validate predictions of performance based upon theoretical models, analyses of airborne and ground-based data, and sophisticated observing system simulation experiments. This paper will be presented in two parts: first a brief overview of the SPARCLE mission and second, a summary of current performance predictions and key contributions from ground- based and airborne DWL research. The SPARCLE instrument is a 100 mJ, 6 Hz, diode-pumped 2-micron laser with a .25 m telescope using heterodyne mixing in a fiber and an InGaAs detector. A 25 cm silicon wedge scanner will be used in step-stare modes with dwells ranging from 60 seconds to .5 seconds. Pointing knowledge is achieved with a dedicated GPS/INS mounted close to the lidar. NASA's Hitchhiker program is providing the instrument enclosures (2 cans) and mission logistics support. An on-board data system is sized to record 150 Gbytes of raw signal from a two 400 MHZ A/D converters. On-board signal processing will be used to control the frequency of the Local Oscillator. SPARCLE is predicted to have a single shot backscatter sensitivity near 1x10(exp -6) m-1 sr-1, To achieve higher sensitivity, shot accumulation will be employed. Ground-based, 2 micron DWLs have been used to assess the benefits of shot accumulation (approximately SQRT for SNR). Airborne programs like MACAWS have provided good datasets for evaluating various sampling strategies and signal processing algorithms. Using these real data to calibrate our simulation models, we can describe when and how well SPARCLE is expected to preform. Outputs from these performance models will be presented.

Emmitt, G. D.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Continuum Modeling of Porous Electrodes for Electrochemical Synthesis

Electrochemical synthesis possesses substantial promise to utilize renewable energy sources to power the conversion of abundant feedstocks to value-added commodity chemicals and fuels. Of the potential system architectures for these processes, only systems employing 3-D structured porous electrodes have the capacity to achieve the high rates of conversion necessary for industrial scale. However, the phenomena and environments in these systems are not well understood and are challenging to probe experimentally. Fortunately, continuum modeling is well-suited to rationalize the observed behavior in electrochemical synthesis, as well as to ultimately provide recommendations for guiding the design of next-generation devices and components. In this review, we begin by presenting an historical review of modeling of porous electrode systems, with the aim of showing how past knowledge of macroscale modeling can contribute to the rising challenge of electrochemical synthesis. We then present a detailed overview of the governing physics and assumptions required to simulate porous electrode systems for electrochemical synthesis. Here, leveraging the developed understanding of porous-electrode theory, we survey and discuss the present literature reports on simulating multiscale phenomena in porous electrodes in order to demonstrate their relevance to understanding and improving the performance of devices for electrochemical synthesis. Lastly, we provide our perspectives regarding future directions in the development of models that can most accurately describe and predict the performance of such devices and discuss the best potential applications of future models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Interaction Between an Insoluble Particle and an Advancing Solid/Liquid Interface: Micro-Gravity Experiments and Theoretical Developments

The interaction of an insoluble particle with an advancing solid/liquid interface (SLI) has been a subject of investigation for the past four decades. While the original interest stemmed from geology applications (e.g., frost heaving in soil), researchers soon realized that the complex science associated with such an interaction is relevant to many other scientific fields encompassing metal matrix composites (MMCs), high temperature superconductors, inclusion management in steel, growth of monotectics, and preservation of biological cells. During solidification of a liquid containing an insoluble particle, three distinct interaction phenomena have been experimentally observed: instantaneous engulfment of the particle, continuous pushing, and particle pushing followed by engulfment. It was also observed that for given experimental conditions and particle size there is a critical solidification velocity, V(sub cr), above which a particle is engulfed. During solidification of MMCs pushing leads to particle agglomeration at the grain boundaries and this has detrimental effects on mechanical properties of the casting. Consequently, the process must be designed for instantaneous engulfment to occur. This implies the development of accurate theoretical models to predict V(sub cr), and perform benchmark experiments to test the validity of such models. Although considerable progress has been made in understanding the pushing/engulfment phenomenon (PEP), its quantification in terms of the material and processing parameters remains a focus of research. Since natural convection currents occurring during terrestrial solidification experiments complicate the study of PEP, execution of experiments on the International Space Station (ISS) has been approved and funded by NASA. Extensive terrestrial (1g) experiments and preliminary micro-gravity (mu g) experiments on two space shuttle missions have been conducted in preparation for future experiments on the ISS. The investigated systems included metal-ceramic particles (pure aluminum - zirconia particles) and transparent organic - non-reactive particles (succinonitrile - polystyrene and biphenyl - glass). This paper will discuss the experimental results obtained in both lg and pg conditions and the influence of the natural convection on V(sub cr). A summary of past mathematical models and our recent theoretical developments will also be presented to explain the experimentally observed particle/SLI interaction.

Catalina, Adrian V.↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Verification and validation of developed short-term forecasting models

Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies provide an opportunity for leveraging data-driven algorithms to predict future nuclear power plant (NPP) operating conditions by using recorded plant process data. Successfully implementing these models can lead to cost-reducing, conditioned-based predictive maintenance through optimized maintenance schedules and a reduction of unnecessary maintenance activities. This report discusses the verification and validation of short-term forecasting processes (i.e., data cleaning, feature selection, model optimization, and forecasting) developed in previous reports. The verification and validation (V&V) process demonstrates the expected precision and accuracy when the ML model encounters new datasets from different systems. Shapley additive explanations were used as the primary means of feature selection across these different data set. Individual models were trained for each data set, then validated through a cross-validation procedure. In this report, two different ML models were tasked to predict variables from three different plant process data sets with varying prediction horizons. The results indicate that support vector regression (SVR) outperformed long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks in regard to each data set and each prediction horizon in this study, but further tuning and optimization could improve long short-term memory results. However, each forecasting model showed reduced performance as the prediction horizon was extended from 1 hour to 1 day ahead. Research is ongoing to evaluate the optimal input variable space, which is based on a given set of process parameters, to further improve forecasting accuracy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2019

A Comparison of Different Modeling Strategies for Predicting Effective Properties of 3D Woven Composites

Three-dimensional (3D) woven composites are an attractive means of achieving superior mechanical performance in aerospace structures. Limited analysis capability currently exists to predict both effective elastic and strength properties for these complex composites. In this study, a comparison of three modeling strategies was performed to assess the ability of the different methods to predict the effective elastic properties of four distinct 3D orthogonal woven composites. Two finite element techniques (in-plane and triply-periodic boundary conditions) and one method of cells technique, the Multiscale Generalized Method of Cells, were considered.

Ricks, Trenton M.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Flamelet Model Application for Non-Premixed Turbulent Combustion

The current Final Report contains results of the study which was performed in Scientific Research Center 'ECOLEN' (Moscow, Russia). The study concerns the development and verification of non-expensive approach for modeling of supersonic turbulent diffusion flames based on flamelet consideration of the chemistry/turbulence interaction (FL approach). Research work included: development of the approach and CFD tests of the flamelet model for supersonic jet flames; development of the simplified procedure for solution of the flamelet equations based on partial equilibrium chemistry assumption; study of the flame ignition/extinction predictions provided by flamelet model. The performed investigation demonstrated that FL approach allowed to describe satisfactory main features of supersonic H 2/air jet flames. Model demonstrated also high capabilities for reduction of the computational expenses in CFD modeling of the supersonic flames taking into account detailed oxidation chemistry. However, some disadvantages and restrictions of the existing version of approach were found in this study. They were: (1) inaccuracy in predictions of the passive scalar statistics by our turbulence model for one of the considered test cases; and (2) applicability of the available version of the flamelet model to flames without large ignition delay distance only. Based on the results of the performed investigation, we formulated and submitted to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration our Project Proposal for the next step research directed toward further improvement of the FL approach.

Secundov, A.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Use of Forecast Atmosphere for Earth Entry, Descent, and Landing Modeling

Flight mechanics simulations are used to characterize the performance of Earth entry, descent, and landing vehicles. Atmospheric prediction models are often a key component of these simulations. Global atmospheric models are used for both engineering design due to their ability to define atmospheric properties over a large swath of locations and times as well as used for the availability of atmospheric uncertainties in the models that can be used in statistical performance analysis. However for day-of-flight operations, the use of forecast atmospheres based on more current measurements are beneficial to the accuracy of the performance prediction, including landing locations. Reanalysis of these forecasts can also be used for post-flight analysis, including trajectory reconstruction. This paper describes how forecast atmospheres can be beneficial for Earth entry, descent, and landing analysis and ways these models can be implemented in simulations.

Soumyo Dutta↗

DOE OSTI2024

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Use of Time Distributions to Predict Operator Procedure Performance in Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

The Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) framework affords software capable of conducting human reliability analysis (HRA) using a dynamic approach built around operating procedures (OPs) from nuclear power plants (NPPs). Previous HUNTER reports document the development of this software tool, the coupling of HUNTER to the simulator code, the collection of operator performance data by using simulators to calibrate HUNTER models, and linking HUNTER to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) software. The present report largely addresses two topics. The first is a new function in HUNTER called the HUNTER Procedure Performance Predictor (P3). HUNTER P3 uses HUNTER’s built in Monte Carlo tools featuring human performance variability to identify potential error traps in procedures. The second topic is time distribution analysis to generate time inputs for dynamic HRA. The current analysis was performed to investigate time distributions for task primitives, which are the minimum task unit of analysis used in dynamic HRA modeling. Using the time distribution data, the elapsed time for human actions in an extended loss of AC power (ELAP) scenario is then investigated. Time data and prediction are essential for modeling procedure performance.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS1989

Comparison study of gear dynamic computer programs at NASA Lewis Research Center

A comparison study was performed on four gear dynamic analysis computer programs developed under NASA/Army sponsorship. These programs are GRDYNMULT (a multimesh program applicable to a number of epicyclic systems), TELSGE (a single mesh program), PGT (a multimesh program applicable to a planetary system with three planets), and DANST (a single mesh program). The capabilities and features, input and output options, and technical aspects of the programs were reviewed and compared. Results are presented in a concise tabular form. Parametric studies of the program models were performed to investigate the predicted results of the programs as input parameters such as speed, torque, and mesh damping were varied. In general, the program models predicted similar dynamic load and stress levels as operating conditions were varied. Flash temperature predictions from programs GRDYNMULT and TELSGE indicated similar trends; however, actual values were not in close agreement. The program GRDYNMULT was found to be the most versatile in system size, type, and analysis capabilities. The programs DANST, TELSGE, and PGT are more specialized for specific systems; however, in specific areas they provide a more detailed treatment than GRDYNMULT.

Zakrajsek, James J.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Long-Term Regulation in the Cardiovascular System - Cornerstone in the Development of A Composite Physiological Model

The present work discusses a model of the cardiovascular system and related subsystems capable of long-term simulations of the type desired for in-space hypogravic human physiological performance prediction. The discussion centers around the model of Guyton and modifications of it. In order to draw attention to the fluid handling capabilities of the model, one of several transfusion simulations performed is presented, namely, the isotonic saline transfusion simulation.

R J White↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting spring green-up across diverse North American grasslands

Vegetation phenology influences many ecosystem and climate processes, such as carbon uptake and energy and water cycles. Thus, understanding drivers of vegetation phenology is crucial for predicting current and future impacts of climate change on ecological systems. Existing models can accurately predict the date of spring green-up in temperate forests but tend to perform poorly in grassland systems. We hypothesize this is because most do not incorporate water availability, a primary limiting factor for grassland plants. In this study, we used long-term datasets of digital imagery from the PhenoCam Network of 43 diverse North American grassland sites (195 site-years) to test existing spring phenology models, as well as develop several new models that incorporate precipitation or soil moisture (53 models). As a result, most of the new models performed substantially better, with the best model requiring sufficient accumulated precipitation followed by warm temperatures to trigger spring onset (root mean square error, RMSE, between predicted and observed dates = 16.0 days). Importantly, the best model performed well across all grassland types using a single set of parameters, from temperate to arid grasslands. Since plants are adapted to their local climates, model performance was further improved when parameters were independently optimized for four separate climate regions (RMSE = 10.4 days). Therefore, both sufficient precipitation and temperature are required for grassland green-up, but optimal thresholds vary by region. Running the top model with projected climate data (representative concentration pathway 8.5) suggests that, depending on the climate region, spring onset will occur up to 12 days earlier within 100 years in temperature-limited sites, but the trend is unclear for precipitation-limited sites (3.5 ± 8.0 days later). This new phenology model improves our ability to understand and predict grassland dynamics, with implications for both current and future ecosystem processes related to carbon and water cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model Predictive Control-Based Dual-Mode Operation of an Energy-Stored Quasi-Z-Source Photovoltaic Power System

The energy-stored quasi-Z-source inverter (ES-qZSI) has attracted much attention for photovoltaic (PV) power generations, due to its capability to stabilize the PV power fluctuations with simple structure and other advantages of Z-source inverter. The improved dual-mode (DM) ES-qZSI is able to support all-weather operation even at night or cloudy days when PV power is extremely low. However, the traditional proportional–integral (PI) based control suffers from complicated controller design and poor dynamic response during mode transition, due to two sets of PI control required for the daytime and night operation modes. In order to overcome that, here in this article, we propose a model predictive control strategy for the DM-ES-qZSI PV power system. The system predictive models in both day and night operating modes are derived. The control strategy is disclosed to ensure high performance of the system, through calling the predictive models and defined cost functions of the two modes within a single control loop. Simulation and experiment are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1983

Predictability of planetary waves - Interhemispheric differences and the effects of stationary forcing

An attempt is made to determine the way in which errors appear in the ultralong waves of numerical weather prediction models, as well as the means by which such errors may be alleviated. Such efforts to improve the numerical forecasting of planetary waves derive their importance from the fact that energetic large scale phenomena are the basis for prospective improvements in extended range forecasting. A simple, linear, quasi-geostrophic and barotropic model is presently used in real data forecast simulations to explore, in an idealized context, several effects that may clarify discrepancies betweeen predictability theory and the performance of current numerical weather prediction models. Attention is given to the degree to which discrepancies may be accounted for by linear theory.

Roads, J. O.↗

DOE OSTI2023

The suitability of differentiable, physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models for ungauged regions and climate change impact assessment

As a genre of physics-informed machine learning, differentiable process-based hydrologic models (abbreviated as δ or delta models) with regionalized deep-network-based parameterization pipelines were recently shown to provide daily streamflow prediction performance closely approaching that of state-of-the-art long short-term memory (LSTM) deep networks. Meanwhile, δ models provide a full suite of diagnostic physical variables and guaranteed mass conservation. Here, we ran experiments to test (1) their ability to extrapolate to regions far from streamflow gauges and (2) their ability to make credible predictions of long-term (decadal-scale) change trends. We evaluated the models based on daily hydrograph metrics (Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, etc.) and predicted decadal streamflow trends. For prediction in ungauged basins (PUB; randomly sampled ungauged basins representing spatial interpolation), δ models either approached or surpassed the performance of LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, depending on the meteorological forcing data used. They presented a comparable trend performance to LSTM for annual mean flow and high flow but worse trends for low flow. For prediction in ungauged regions (PUR; regional holdout test representing spatial extrapolation in a highly data-sparse scenario), δ models surpassed LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, and their advantages in mean and high flow trends became prominent. In addition, an untrained variable, evapotranspiration, retained good seasonality even for extrapolated cases. The δ models' deep-network-based parameterization pipeline produced parameter fields that maintain remarkably stable spatial patterns even in highly data-scarce scenarios, which explains their robustness. Combined with their interpretability and ability to assimilate multi-source observations, the δ models are strong candidates for regional and global-scale hydrologic simulations and climate change impact assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

An in silico method to assess antibody fragment polyreactivity

Antibodies are essential biological research tools and important therapeutic agents, but some exhibit non-specific binding to off-target proteins and other biomolecules. Such polyreactive antibodies compromise screening pipelines, lead to incorrect and irreproducible experimental results, and are generally intractable for clinical development. Here, we design a set of experiments using a diverse naïve synthetic camelid antibody fragment (nanobody) library to enable machine learning models to accurately assess polyreactivity from protein sequence (AUC > 0.8). Moreover, our models provide quantitative scoring metrics that predict the effect of amino acid substitutions on polyreactivity. We experimentally test our models’ performance on three independent nanobody scaffolds, where over 90% of predicted substitutions successfully reduced polyreactivity. Importantly, the models allow us to diminish the polyreactivity of an angiotensin II type I receptor antagonist nanobody, without compromising its functional properties. We provide a companion web-server that offers a straightforward means of predicting polyreactivity and polyreactivity-reducing mutations for any given nanobody sequence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗