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At least 919 records · Page 51

Probabilistic Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy and Storage Requirements for NM's Energy Transition Act (SAND Report)

This report provides a study of the potential impacts of climate change on intermittent renewable energy resources, battery storage, and resource adequacy in Public Service Company of New Mexico’s Integrated Resource Plan for 2020 – 2040. Climate change models and available data were first evaluated to determine uncertainty and potential changes in solar irradiance, temperature, and wind speed in NM in the coming decades. These changes were then implemented in solar and wind energy models to determine impacts on renewable energy resources in NM. Results for the extreme climate-change scenario show that the projected wind power may decrease by ~13% due to projected decreases in wind speed. Projected solar power may decrease by ~4% due to decreases in irradiance and increases in temperature in NM. Uncertainty in these climate-induced changes in wind and solar resources was accommodated in probabilistic models assuming uniform distributions in the annual reductions in solar and wind resources. Uncertainty in battery storage performance was also evaluated based on increased temperature, capacity fade, and degradation in round-trip efficiency. The hourly energy balance was determined throughout the year given uncertainties in the renewable energy resources and energy storage. The loss of load expectation (LOLE) was evaluated for the 2040 No New Combustion portfolio and found to increase from 0 days/year to a median value of ~2 days/year due to potential reductions in renewable energy resources and battery storage performance and capacity. A rank-regression analyses revealed that battery round-trip efficiency was the most significant parameter that impacted LOLE, followed by solar resource, wind resource, and battery fade. An increase in battery storage capacity to ~25,000 – 30,000 MWh from a baseline value of ~14,000 MWh was required to reduce the median value of LOLE to ~0.2 days/year with consideration of potential climate impacts and battery degradation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) of Metal and Metal Oxide Films: A Surface Science Study (Final Report)

This is the final report for this project. The long-term objective of our project is to develop a general molecular-level picture of the surface chemistry associated with ALD processes. Our central hypothesis is that the chemistry of ALD precursors can differ significantly from that seen in solution. Awareness of such differences should provide general guidelines on what to watch for when synthesizing new ALD precursors and designing and optimizing new ALD processes, especially in terms of minimizing the incorporation of impurities in the growing films and of carrying out depositions under mild pressure and temperature conditions. The main objective of our research project has been to advance the fundamental knowledge of the surface chemistry of ALD precursors needed for the design and optimization of film deposition processes. A modern surface-science approach has been implemented to both elucidate the mechanism of the reactions of the precursors on the surface and characterize the composition and morphology of the growing films. In general, emphasis is being placed on: • Identifying the primary reactions that may lead to the deposition of clean films; •Identifying the secondary reactions that may help the ALD process, by, for instance, helping with the reduction (or oxidation) of the metal atom; • Identifying the secondary reactions that may lead to the deposition of undesirable impurities in the growing films; • Determining the kinetic parameters of the relevant surface reactions in order to define the optimum conditions for film deposition and to minimize impurity deposition. • Characterizing the nature of the resulting films, with focus on their stoichiometry and on the final oxidation states of the constituent elements; and • Using the information obtained to propose better precursors for given ALD processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Scientist-in-the-Loop Data Analytics Framework for Intelligent Simulation Model Tuning and Validation

This project developed a scientist-in-the-loop data analytics framework for intelligent simulation model tuning and validation, targeting the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its solar energy variant, WRF-Solar-BNL. Domain experts, such as climate scientists, depend on large-scale numerical simulations for knowledge discovery and decision-making, yet the complexity of parameter tuning and the disconnect between automated optimization and domain expertise pose significant challenges. We extended an interactive visual analytics framework that enables domain experts to observe and intervene in the computational steering process by identifying disagreements between the simulation model, surrogate model, and the expert’s domain knowledge. Using Bayesian Optimization with Gaussian Process Regression as the surrogate model, our system allows users to probe parameter relationships, analyze correlation patterns, and adjust tuning parameters in real time. We developed use cases for solar irradiance forecasting through sustained collaboration with Brookhaven National Laboratory, resolving critical model configuration challenges and achieving meaningful reductions in prediction error. The project supported one PhD student, one MS student, and eight undergraduate students across three Data Science Capstone projects, resulting in one master’s thesis.

Dasgupta, Aritra [New Jersey Institute of Technolo↗

A design method for minimizing sensitivity to plant parameter variations

A method is described for minimizing the sensitivity of multivariable systems to parameter variations. The variable parameters are considered as random variables and their effect is included in a quadratic performance index. The performance index is a weighted sum of the state and control covariances that stem from both the random system disturbances and the parameter uncertainties. The numerical solution of the problem is described and application of the method to several initially sensitive tracking systems is discussed. The sensitivity factor of reduction was typically 2 or 3 over a system based on random system noise only, and yet resulted in state RMS increases of only about a factor of two.

Hadass, Z.↗

Computations for the 16-foot transonic tunnel, NASA, Langley Research Center, revision 1

The equations used by the 16 foot transonic tunnel in the data reduction programs are presented in eight modules. Each module consists of equations necessary to achieve a specific purpose. These modules are categorized in the following groups: tunnel parameters; jet exhaust measurements; skin friction drag; balance loads and model attitudes calculations; internal drag (or exit-flow distributions); pressure coefficients and integrated forces; thrust removal options; and turboprop options. This document is a companion document to NASA TM-83186, A User's Guide to the Langley 16 Foot Transonic Tunnel, August 1981.

Mercer, Charles E.↗

An improved V-Lambda solution of the matrix Riccati equation

The authors present an improved algorithm for computing the V-Lambda solution of the matrix Riccati equation. The improvement is in the reduction of the computational load, results from the orthogonality of the eigenvector matrix that has to be solved for. The orthogonality constraint reduces the number of independent parameters which define the matrix from n-squared to n (n - 1)/2. The authors show how to specify the parameters, how to solve for them and how to form from them the needed eigenvector matrix. In the search for suitable parameters, the analogy between the present problem and the problem of attitude determination is exploited, resulting in the choice of Rodrigues parameters.

Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack Y.↗

Determination of the natural convection coefficient in low-gravity

Fire safety is an important issue in the current space program; ignition in low-g needs to be studied. The reduction in the gravitational acceleration causes changes in the ignition process. This paper examines the effect of gravity on natural convection, which is one of the important parameters in the ignition process. The NASA-Lewis 2.2 Second Drop Tower provided the low-gravity environment for the experiments. A series of experiments was conducted to measure the temperature of a small copper plate which was heated by a high intensity lamp. These experiments verified that in low-gravity the plate temperature increased faster than in the corresponding 1-g cases, and that the natural convection coefficient rapidly decreased in the low-gravity environment.

Goldmeer, J.↗

HSCT integrated propulsion control issues

The propulsion control system affects the economics of the HSCT through the mechanisms indicated. Weight reduction is paramount in an aircraft of this type. Significant reductions are possible relative to the SST or even current technology if improvements are made in areas such as high temperature electronics. Dependability is an increasingly important parameter in all aircraft, but the higher capital cost of the HSCT makes it doubly important. Conversely the more difficult HSCT design problem makes it more difficult to achieve. Integration of propulsion controls will make it possible to improve both the static and dynamic performance of the HSCT propulsion system. Noise and emissions requirements may introduce novel control system requirements such as automatically programmed takeoff thrust for noise abatement. Control system development technology is evolving. For HSCT, highly automated and thoroughly validated tools will be required to reliably achieve desired system performance at introduction, and to reduce development costs. A technology plan was developed to prepare for HSCT development. This presentation addresses the portion of the plan required to demonstrate technology readiness for the HSCT in the late 1990's rather than the technology development currently in progress.

Carlin, Christopher M.↗

Orbit determination of highly elliptical Earth orbiters using improved Doppler data-processing modes

A navigation error covariance analysis of four highly elliptical Earth orbits is described, with apogee heights ranging from 20,000 to 76,800 km and perigee heights ranging from 1,000 to 5,000 km. This analysis differs from earlier studies in that improved navigation data-processing modes were used to reduce the radio metric data. For this study, X-band (8.4-GHz) Doppler data were assumed to be acquired from two Deep Space Network radio antennas and reconstructed orbit errors propagated over a single day. Doppler measurements were formulated as total-count phase measurements and compared to the traditional formulation of differenced-count frequency measurements. In addition, an enhanced data-filtering strategy was used, which treated the principal ground system calibration errors affecting the data as filter parameters. Results suggest that a 40- to 60-percent accuracy improvement may be achievable over traditional data-processing modes in reconstructed orbit errors, with a substantial reduction in reconstructed velocity errors at perigee. Historically, this has been a regime in which stringent navigation requirements have been difficult to meet by conventional methods.

Estefan, J. A.↗

Dual-Use Aspects of System Health Management

System Health Management functionality is an essential part of any space launch system. Health management functionality is an integral part of mission reliability, since it is needed to verify the reliability before the mission starts. Health Management is also a key factor in life cycle cost reduction and in increasing system availability. The degree of coverage needed by the system and the degree of coverage made available at a reasonable cost are critical parameters of a successful design. These problems are not unique to the launch vehicle world. In particular, the Intelligent Vehicle Highway System, commercial aircraft systems, train systems, and many types of industrial production facilities require various degrees of system health management. In all of these applications, too, the designers must balance the benefits and costs of health management in order to optimize costs. The importance of an integrated system is emphasized. That is, we present the case for considering health management as an integral part of system design, rather than functionality to be added on at the end of the design process. The importance of maintaining the system viewpoint is discussed in making hardware and software tradeoffs and in arriving at design decisions. We describe an approach to determine the parameters to be monitored in any system health management application. This approach is based on Design of Experiments (DOE), prototyping, failure modes and effects analyses, cost modeling and discrete event simulation. The various computer-based tools that facilitate the approach are discussed. The approach described originally was used to develop a fault tolerant avionics architecture for launch vehicles that incorporated health management as an integral part of the system. Finally, we discuss generalizing the technique to apply it to other domains. Several illustrations are presented.

Owens, P. R.↗

Mathematical Analysis and Optimization of Infiltration Processes

A variety of infiltration techniques can be used to fabricate solid materials, particularly composites. In general these processes can be described with at least one time dependent partial differential equation describing the evolution of the solid phase, coupled to one or more partial differential equations describing mass transport through a porous structure. This paper presents a detailed mathematical analysis of a relatively simple set of equations which is used to describe chemical vapor infiltration. The results demonstrate that the process is controlled by only two parameters, alpha and beta. The optimization problem associated with minimizing the infiltration time is also considered. Allowing alpha and beta to vary with time leads to significant reductions in the infiltration time, compared with the conventional case where alpha and beta are treated as constants.

Chang, H.-C.↗

SHAO Analysis Center 2012 Annual Report

The Shanghai Astronomical Observatory (SHAO) Analysis Center in 2012 continued routine VLBI data analysis and produced earth orientation parameter (EOP), terrestrial reference frame (TRF), and celestial reference frame (CRF) information, which was submitted to the IVS quarterly. The activities of SHAO also consisted of data reduction of the Chinese VLBI Network (CVN), spacecraft navigation using the VLBI technique, and some research activities.

Wang, Guangli↗

An Observation‐Driven Approach to Improve Vegetation Phenology in a Global Land Surface Model

An empirical model calibration approach is presented that aims to approximate missing biosphere processes in a global land surface model without the need for substantial model structural changes. The strategy is implemented here using the NASA Catchment‐CN land surface model and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR). Existing plant functional types (PFTs) of the Catchment‐CN model are divided into three subtypes, based on the bias between the model‐simulated and MODIS‐observed FPAR. Separate sets of vegetation parameters for each subtype are then calibrated at a small number of grid cells with homogeneous, single‐PFT land cover, using MODIS FPAR reference observations from 2003 to 2009. The effectiveness of the empirical approach at improving the realism of modeled vegetation dynamics is investigated with two global model simulations for the period 2010–2016, one using the newly calibrated parameter values and the other using the original values. Globally, the calibrated parameters reduce the root mean square error (RMSE) of the modeled FPAR with respect to MODIS by 0.029 (∼10%) on average. In some regions, substantially larger RMSE reductions are achieved. RMSE reductions are primarily driven by model bias reductions, with neutral effects on the temporal correlation skill. While the empirical approach is suitable for achieving consistent model improvements, it is shown to be sensitive to the characteristics of the model error, specifically a dominance of the bias component in the case of Catchment‐CN. Ultimately, more fundamental model structural changes may be required to achieve better improvements.

J. Kolassa↗

Evaluation of Global Simulations of Aerosol Particle and Cloud Condensation Nuclei Number, with Implications for Cloud Droplet Formation

A total of 16 global chemistry transport models and general circulation models have participated in this study; 14 models have been evaluated with regard to their ability to reproduce the near-surface observed number concentration of aerosol particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), as well as derived cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Model results for the period 2011-2015 are compared with aerosol measurements (aerosol particle number, CCN and aerosol particle composition in the submicron fraction) from nine surface stations located in Europe and Japan. The evaluation focuses on the ability of models to simulate the average across time state in diverse environments and on the seasonal and short-term variability in the aerosol properties. There is no single model that systematically performs best across all environments represented by the observations. Models tend to underestimate the observed aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, with average normalized mean bias (NMB) of all models and for all stations, where data are available, of -24% and -35% for particles with dry diameters > 50 and > 120nm, as well as -36% and -34% for CCN at supersaturations of 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively. However, they seem to behave differently for particles activating at very low supersaturations (< 0.1%) than at higher ones. A total of 15 models have been used to produce ensemble annual median distributions of relevant parameters. The model diversity (defined as the ratio of standard deviation to mean) is up to about 3 for simulated N3 (number concentration of particles with dry diameters larger than 3 nm) and up to about 1 for simulated CCN in the extra-polar regions. A global mean reduction of a factor of about 2 is found in the model diversity for CCN at a supersaturation of 0.2% (CCN(0.2)) compared to that for N3, maximizing over regions where new particle formation is important. An additional model has been used to investigate potential causes of model diversity in CCN and bias compared to the observations by performing a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) accounting for uncertainties in 26 aerosol-related model input parameters. This PPE suggests that biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation and the hygroscopic properties of the organic material are likely to be the major sources of CCN uncertainty in summer, with dry deposition and cloud processing being dominant in winter. Models capture the relative amplitude of the seasonal variability of the aerosol particle number concentration for all studied particle sizes with available observations (dry diameters larger than 50, 80 and 120nm). The short-term persistence time (on the order of a few days) of CCN concentrations, which is a measure of aerosol dynamic behavior in the models, is underestimated on average by the models by 40% during winter and 20% in summer.

cloud droplets↗

Reduction and analysis of ATS-6 data

Results obtained from the analysis of data returned by the energetic particle spectrometer on ATS 6 are presented. The study of the energetic electron environment and the effects of the solar wind parameters on the energetic electrons trapped at the synchronous altitude are emphasized.

Paulikas, G. A.↗

Diagnosing nuclear power plant pipe wall thinning due to flow accelerated corrosion using a passive, thermal non-destructive evaluation method: Feasibility assessment via numerical experiments

Flow accelerated corrosion (FAC) in nuclear power plant pipes is one of the leading causes of accidents, fatalities, damage and outages. Current FAC identification methods employ expensive sensing technology and are “active” methods, where the response of the piping system to an externally-generated thermal, mechanical or optical excitation must be measured. As a result, these techniques require a disruptive and time-consuming setup. Here we propose a method that utilizes pipe surface temperature measurements to passively monitor for FAC-induced pipe wall thinning without the need for expensive equipment or post-installation setup time. This diagnostic method utilizes a simulation data-driven diagnostic model to estimate the amount of thickness reduction in a pipe based on changes in measured steady-state pipe temperatures. In order to reduce the computational burden of generating large, simulation-based datasets, the behavior of the insulation of the pipe was modeled using a suitably calibrated heat transfer boundary parameter. Additionally, global sensitivity analysis was performed to determine system parameter(s), such as the temperature of water flowing inside the pipe, which significantly affect the steady state pipe wall temperature and could cause errors in diagnosis. Two diagnostic models, one using only the change in steady-state temperature as an indicator for FAC-induced pipe wall thinning and the other using water temperature as an additional diagnostic model input were evaluated for their ability to estimate thickness reductions in a pipe using simulated pipe wall temperature data. For the numerical experiments conducted in this work, both models estimated wall thickness with errors within 0.5 mm, indicating that the proposed technique can potentially be used as a low-cost, first-pass method for FAC monitoring.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Improved $^{95}\mathrm{Mo}$ neutron resonance parameters and astrophysical reaction rates

We report improved 95 Mo neutron resonance parameters and reaction rates are important for nuclear astrophysics, testing nuclear models, and nuclear criticality safety. However, despite many previous neutron-capture and total cross-section measurements on this nuclide, there still is much room for improvement as well as several discrepancies. For example, there are very few firm resonance spin and parity assignments; average resonance parameters are available only for each parity, the currently recommended astrophysical reaction rate results in disagreements between stellar models and meteoric isotopic anomalies, and there are substantial disagreements in the neutron-capture cross section at low energies important for nuclear criticality safety. To obtain an improved set of neutron resonance parameters and astrophysical reaction rates for 95 Mo. High-resolution neutron-capture and transmission data were measured at the Oak Ridge Electron Linear Accelerator (ORELA) using highly isotopically enriched 95 Mo samples. The neutron-capture apparatus, data reduction, and analysis were improved so that information contained in the γ-ray cascade following neutron capture were used to assign resonance J π values. Following this, simultaneous analysis of the new neutron-capture and transmission data was used to obtain resonance energies, gamma widths, and neutron widths and their uncertainties to a maximum energy of 10 keV. Accurate neutron-capture cross sections also were obtained for the unresolved resonance region to a maximum energy of 500 keV and, together with the new resonance parameters, used to calculate the astrophysical reaction rates in the temperature range from 5 to 30 keV. A vastly improved set of 95Mo neutron resonance parameters and an astrophysical reaction rate accurate to about 3% were obtained. Firm J π assignments were determined for 261 of the 314 observed resonances. This is a very large improvement over the previously published 32 firm J π assignments for 108 resonances. Also, the number of resonances having both firm J π assignments and Γ γ values was increased by almost a factor of 24—from 11 to 261. Neutron- and total-radiation-width distributions and average resonance spacings, average total radiation widths, and neutron strength functions were obtained for the six different s- and p-wave possibilities. Parameters for the lowest s-wave resonance, which is most important for criticality benchmarks, were obtained with high accuracy. Simple modification of the neutron-capture apparatus and expansion and improvement of data analysis techniques led to a large increase in firm J π assignments for 95 Mo neutron resonances. The resulting astrophysical reaction rate is 20%–30% larger than the currently recommended rate at s-process temperatures, which should lead to better agreement between stellar models and meteoric isotopic anomalies. The neutron-capture cross section at low energies is substantially larger than recommended in the latest evaluation, which is problematical for criticality benchmarks. The average resonance spacing as a function of spin and parity is significantly different from current models. The total-radiation-width distributions are significantly broader than predicted by theory and show significant departures from the expected Gaussian shapes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Multi-Sensor, Low Volume, Automated Culture System for Space Biology Experiments

Optical density (absorbance) is commonly used in microbiology to measure cell concentration and other colorimetric indicators. It is the main type of bioscience data returned from the BioSentinel small spacecraft mission, which was recently launched as a secondary payload on Artemis I. The flight unit takes absorbance measurements of yeast cultures at 570 nm, 630 nm, and 850 nm to track cell concentration and oxidation-reduction (redox) state of the metabolic indicator dye alamarBlue over time [1]. Because the data returned from a small spacecraft mission is necessarily limited, BioSentinel uses a specialized ground-based experiment apparatus to map the absorbance data onto several other parameters. This culture apparatus is composed of a polycarbonate base and lid which contain ports for several commercial sensors, including a standard 12 mm dissolved oxygen probe, gaseous CO2, fluid pressure, and two micro-probes for measuring pH and redox potential. It also contains a pressure relief valve, a rubber membrane for culture interaction, and a 12mm port for the custom optical probe designed to match in-flight measurements. Modules in two corners expand the culture volume into narrow columns, enabling solid-state optical density measurement and dielectric spectroscopy. The apparatus can be fit to a plate for magnetic stirring. The apparatus’s optical probe allows mapping between the flight unit’s optical data and the additional parameters measured by the ground-based experiments. Within the probe, a linear actuator pulls a plunger, drawing culture volume into the optical path. The actuator then pushes out the plunger and culture volume, cleaning any stray yeast from the inside surface of the probe. The probe chassis is 3D-printed from biocompatible resin with the optoelectronics cured inside an optically clear conformal coat which functions as a lens. To optimize the probe’s dimensions, including optical path, a test harness was developed to manipulate and measure distance while the LED light sources and photodiode detector are in operation. The test harness was composed of two 3/64” thick polycarbonate plates mounted to a set of calipers. The LEDs and photodiode were mounted on the outside of each plate. A cuvette of sample fluid was then clamped between the plates in line between the LEDs and photodiode. The test harness generated a 78% signal change between water and a dye standard for the green (570 nm) LED, a 90% signal change for the red (630 nm) LED, and a 25% signal change between water and overgrown yeast for the infrared (850 nm) LED. The improvements to the ground experiment apparatus (culture volume reduction, inclusion of an optical probe to measure flight-like optical data, and magnetic stirring for culture homogeneity) allow for more flight-like measurements to be taken and more accurate mapping of these additional parameters to the optical data returned from the flight unit. This enhancement to mission science return will give insight into how deep space radiation may affect human biology for future long-term space exploration.

Multi-Sensor↗