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At least 919 records · Page 51

Observations of Fast-Moving Features in the Debris Disk of AU Mic on a Three-Year Timescale: Confirmation and New Discoveries

Context. The nearby and young M star AU Mic is surrounded by a debris disk in which we previously identified a series of large-scale arch-like structures that have never been seen before in any other debris disk and that move outward at high velocities. Aims. We initiated a monitoring program with the following objectives: (1) track the location of the structures and better constrain their projected speeds, (2) search for new features emerging closer in, and ultimately (3) understand the mechanism responsible for the motion and production of the disk features. Methods. AU Mic was observed at 11 different epochs between August 2014 and October 2017 with the IR camera and spectrograph of SPHERE. These high-contrast imaging data were processed with a variety of angular, spectral, and polarimetric differential imaging techniques to reveal the faintest structures in the disk. We measured the projected separations of the features in a systematic way for all epochs. We also applied the very same measurements to older observations from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) with the visible cameras STIS and ACS. Results. The main outcomes of this work are (1) the recovery of the five southeastern broad arch-like structures we identified in our first study, and confirmation of their fast motion (projected speed in the range 4–12 km/s); (2) the confirmation that the very first structures observed in 2004 with ACS are indeed connected to those observed later with STIS and now SPHERE; (3) the discovery of two new very compact structures at the northwest side of the disk (at 0.40′′ and 0.55′′ in May 2015) that move to the southeast at low speed; and (4) the identification of a new arch-like structure that might be emerging at the southeast side at about 0.4′′ from the star (as of May 2016). Conclusions. Although the exquisite sensitivity of SPHERE allows one to follow the evolution not only of the projected separation, but also of the specific morphology of each individual feature, it remains difficult to distinguish between possible dynamical scenarios that may explain the observations. Understanding the exact origin of these features, the way they are generated, and their evolution over time is certainly a significant challenge in the context of planetary system formation around M stars.

Boccaletti, A.↗

An objective inter-comparison of trash mark constellations generated by manual and automated detection methods

Trash marks are unintentional markings observed on printed, scanned, or photocopied documents that result from permanent defects or transient material in office machines and can be used for source attribution of questioned documents. Trash mark examinations have been in use in forensic laboratories for decades, yet the method remains relatively untested and relies on training, experience, and anecdotal information to support its validity. Herein this study generated and harnessed objective data to empirically test one of the foundational theories for assessing the origin of photocopied documents: provided trash marks are present in sufficient quantity and/or quality, no two machines will exhibit a constellation of trash marks that is indistinguishable from another. In this project, objective trash mark location and size data was generated for 50 known photocopiers using both a traditional and a novel, automated method. Inter-machine comparisons were conducted using a novel variant of the Hausdorff distance algorithm to generate a quantitative assessment of how similar or different the 2450 pairs of trash mark constellations were from one another. This study found that each of the machines bearing one or more trash marks exhibited objective differences in their trash mark constellations, ultimately providing support for the tested hypothesis

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

On the Determination of Poisson Statistics for Haystack Radar Observations of Orbital Debris

A convenient and powerful method is used to determine if radar detections of orbital debris are observed according to Poisson statistics. This is done by analyzing the time interval between detection events. For Poisson statistics, the probability distribution of the time interval between events is shown to be an exponential distribution. This distribution is a special case of the Erlang distribution that is used in estimating traffic loads on telecommunication networks. Poisson statistics form the basis of many orbital debris models but the statistical basis of these models has not been clearly demonstrated empirically until now. Interestingly, during the fiscal year 2003 observations with the Haystack radar in a fixed staring mode, there are no statistically significant deviations observed from that expected with Poisson statistics, either independent or dependent of altitude or inclination. One would potentially expect some significant clustering of events in time as a result of satellite breakups, but the presence of Poisson statistics indicates that such debris disperse rapidly with respect to Haystack's very narrow radar beam. An exception to Poisson statistics is observed in the months following the intentional breakup of the Fengyun satellite in January 2007.

Stokely, Christopher L.↗

Development of a four-dimensional variational analysis system using the adjoint method at GLA. I - Dynamics

Recent developments in the field of data assimilation have pointed to variational analysis (essentially least-squares fitting of a model solution to observed data) using the adjoint method as a new direction that holds the potential of major improvements over the current optimal interpolation method. This paper describes the initial effort in the development of a 4D variational analysis system. Although the development is based on the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres General Circulation Model (GCM), the methods and procedures described in this paper can be applied to any model. The adjoint code that computes the gradients needed in the analysis can be written directly from the GCM code. An easy error-detection technique was devised in the construction of the adjoint model. Also, a method of determining the weights and the preconditioning scales for the cases where model-generated data, which are error free, are used as observation is proposed. Two test experiments show that the dynamics part of the system has been successfully completed.

Chao, Winston C.↗

A Cohesive Deep Drilling Field Strategy for LSST Cosmology

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will image billions of astronomical objects in the wide–fast–deep primary survey and in a set of minisurveys including intensive observations of a group of deep drilling fields (DDFs). The DDFs are a critical piece of three key aspects of the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) cosmological measurements: they provide a required calibration for photometric redshifts (photo- z ) and weak gravitational lensing (WL) measurements and they directly contribute to cosmological constraints from the most distant Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). We present a set of cohesive DDF strategies fulfilling science requirements relevant to DESC and following the guidelines of the Survey Cadence Optimization Committee. We propose a method to estimate the observing strategy parameters and we perform simulations of the corresponding surveys. We define a set of metrics for each science case to assess the performance of the proposed observing strategies. We show that the most promising results are achieved with deep rolling surveys characterized by two sets of fields: ultradeep fields ( z ≲ 1.1) observed at a high cadence with a large number of visits over a limited number of seasons, and deep fields ( z ≲ 0.7), observed with a cadence of ~3 nights for 10 yr. These encouraging results should be confirmed with realistic simulations using the LSST scheduler. A DDF budget of ~8.5% is required to design observing strategies satisfying all the cosmological requirements. A lower DDF budget leads to surveys that either do not fulfill the photo- z /WL requirements or are not optimal for SN Ia cosmology.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A hybrid Monte Carlo, discontinuous Galerkin method for linear kinetic transport equations

Here we present a hybrid method for time-dependent particle transport problems that combines Monte Carlo (MC) estimation with deterministic solutions based on discrete ordinates. For spatial discretizations, the MC algorithm computes a piecewise constant solution and the discrete ordinates use bilinear discontinuous finite elements. From the hybridization of the problem, the resulting problem solved by Monte Carlo is scattering free, resulting in a simple, efficient solution procedure. Between time steps, we use a projection approach to “relabel” collided particles as uncollided particles. In conclusion, from a series of standard 2-D Cartesian test problems we observe that our hybrid method has improved accuracy and reduction in computational complexity of approximately an order of magnitude relative to standard discrete ordinates solutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Launch Method for Kites in Low-Wind or No-Wind Conditions

Airborne observations using lightweight camera systems are desirable for a variety of applications. This system was contemplated as a method to provide a simple remote sensing aerial platform. Kites have been successfully employed for aerial observations, but have historically required natural wind or towing to become airborne. This new method negates this requirement, and widens the applicability of kites for carrying instrumentation. Applicability is primarily limited by the space available on the ground for launching. The innovation is a method for launching kites in low-wind or no-wind conditions. This method will enable instrumentation to be carried aloft using simple (or complex) kite-based systems, to obtain observations from an aerial perspective. This technique will provide access to altitudes of 100 meters or more over any area normally suited for kite flying. The duration of any observation is dependent on wind strength; however, the initial altitude is relatively independent. The system does not require any electrical or combustion-based elements. This technology was developed to augment local-scale airborne measurement capabilities suitable for Earth science research, agricultural productivity, and environmental observations. The method represents an extension of techniques often used in aeronautical applications for launching fixed-wing aircraft, such as sailplanes, using mechanical means not incorporated in the aircraft itself. The innovation consists of an elastic cord (for propulsive force), a tether extension (optional, for additional height), and the kite (instrumentation optional). Operation of the system is accomplished by fixing the elastic cord to ground (or equivalent), attaching the cord with/or without a tether extension to the kite, tensioning the system to store energy, and releasing the kite. The kite will climb until energy is dissipated.

Bland, Geoffrey↗

Improving helium abundance determinations with Leo P as a case study

Currently, the primordial helium abundance is best estimated through spectroscopic observations of H II regions in metal-poor galaxies. However these determinations are limited by several systematic uncertainties which ultimately limit our ability to accurately ascertain the primordial abundance. In this study, we improve the methodologies for solving for the reddening, the emission contributions from collisional excitation of the H I atoms, the effects underlying absorption in the H I and He I emission lines, and the treatment of the blended H I and He I emission at λ3889 with the aim of lowering the systematic uncertainties in helium abundance determinations. To apply these methods, we have obtained observations of the He I λ10830 emission line in the brightest H II region in the extremely metal-poor (3% Z ⊙ ) galaxy Leo P with the LUCI1 instrument on the LBT. We combine this measurement with previous MODS/LBT observations to derive an improved helium abundance. In doing so, our present analysis results in a decrease in the uncertainty in the helium abundance of Leo P by approximately 70%. Furthermore, this result is combined with data from other observations to estimate the primordial helium mass fraction, Yp= 0.2453 ± 0.0034.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Surprising similarities in model and observational aerosol radiative forcing estimates

Abstract. The radiative forcing from aerosols (particularly through their interaction with clouds) remains one of the most uncertain components of the human forcing of the climate. Observation-based studies have typically found a smaller aerosol effective radiative forcing than in model simulations and were given preferential weighting in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). With their own sources of uncertainty, it is not clear that observation-based estimates are more reliable. Understanding the source of the model and observational differences is thus vital to reduce uncertainty in the impact of aerosols on the climate. These reported discrepancies arise from the different methods of separating the components of aerosol forcing used in model and observational studies. Applying the observational decomposition to global climate model (GCM) output, the two different lines of evidence are surprisingly similar, with a much better agreement on the magnitude of aerosol impacts on cloud properties. Cloud adjustments remain a significant source of uncertainty, particularly for ice clouds. However, they are consistent with the uncertainty from observation-based methods, with the liquid water path adjustment usually enhancing the Twomey effect by less than 50 %. Depending on different sets of assumptions, this work suggests that model and observation-based estimates could be more equally weighted in future synthesis studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Low-dimensional Representation of Error Covariance

Ensemble and reduced-rank approaches to prediction and assimilation rely on low-dimensional approximations of the estimation error covariances. Here stability properties of the forecast/analysis cycle for linear, time-independent systems are used to identify factors that cause the steady-state analysis error covariance to admit a low-dimensional representation. A useful measure of forecast/analysis cycle stability is the bound matrix, a function of the dynamics, observation operator and assimilation method. Upper and lower estimates for the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix eigenvalues are derived from the bound matrix. The estimates generalize to time-dependent systems. If much of the steady-state analysis error variance is due to a few dominant modes, the leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix approximate those of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix. The analytical results are illustrated in two numerical examples where the Kalman filter is carried to steady state. The first example uses the dynamics of a generalized advection equation exhibiting nonmodal transient growth. Failure to observe growing modes leads to increased steady-state analysis error variances. Leading eigenvectors of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix are well approximated by leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix. The second example uses the dynamics of a damped baroclinic wave model. The leading eigenvectors of a lowest-order approximation of the bound matrix are shown to approximate well the leading eigenvectors of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix.

Tippett, Michael K.↗

A new technique for Auger analysis of surface species subject to electron-induced desorption.

A method is presented to observe surface species subject to electron-induced desorption by Auger electron spectroscopy. The surface to be examined is moved under the electron beam at constant velocity, establishing a time-independent condition and eliminating the time response of the electron spectrometer as a limiting factor. The dependence of the Auger signal on the sample velocity, incident electron current, beam diameter, and desorption cross section is analyzed. It is shown that it is advantageous to analyze the moving sample with a high beam current, in contrast to the usual practice of using a low beam current to minimize desorption from a stationary sample. The method is illustrated by the analysis of a friction transfer film of PTFE, in which the fluorine is removed by electron-induced desorption. The method is relevant to surface studies in the field of lubrication and catalysis.

Pepper, S. V.↗

Joint Bayesian Component Separation and CMB Power Spectrum Estimation

We describe and implement an exact, flexible, and computationally efficient algorithm for joint component separation and CMB power spectrum estimation, building on a Gibbs sampling framework. Two essential new features are (1) conditional sampling of foreground spectral parameters and (2) joint sampling of all amplitude-type degrees of freedom (e.g., CMB, foreground pixel amplitudes, and global template amplitudes) given spectral parameters. Given a parametric model of the foreground signals, we estimate efficiently and accurately the exact joint foreground- CMB posterior distribution and, therefore, all marginal distributions such as the CMB power spectrum or foreground spectral index posteriors. The main limitation of the current implementation is the requirement of identical beam responses at all frequencies, which restricts the analysis to the lowest resolution of a given experiment. We outline a future generalization to multiresolution observations. To verify the method, we analyze simple models and compare the results to analytical predictions. We then analyze a realistic simulation with properties similar to the 3 yr WMAP data, downgraded to a common resolution of 3 deg FWHM. The results from the actual 3 yr WMAP temperature analysis are presented in a companion Letter.

numerical↗

The ICARE Method

The ICARE method is a flexible, widely applicable method for systems engineers to solve problems and resolve issues in a complete and comprehensive manner. The method can be tailored by diverse users for direct application to their function (e.g. system integrators, design engineers, technical discipline leads, analysts, etc.). The clever acronym, ICARE, instills the attitude of accountability, safety, technical rigor and engagement in the problem resolution: Identify, Communicate, Assess, Report, Execute (ICARE). This method was developed through observation of Space Shuttle Propulsion Systems Engineering and Integration (PSE&I) office personnel approach in an attempt to succinctly describe the actions of an effective systems engineer. Additionally it evolved from an effort to make a broadly-defined checklist for a PSE&I worker to perform their responsibilities in an iterative and recursive manner. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Systems Engineering Handbook states, engineering of NASA systems requires a systematic and disciplined set of processes that are applied recursively and iteratively for the design, development, operation, maintenance, and closeout of systems throughout the life cycle of the programs and projects. ICARE is a method that can be applied within the boundaries and requirements of NASA s systems engineering set of processes to provide an elevated sense of duty and responsibility to crew and vehicle safety. The importance of a disciplined set of processes and a safety-conscious mindset increases with the complexity of the system. Moreover, the larger the system and the larger the workforce, the more important it is to encourage the usage of the ICARE method as widely as possible. According to the NASA Systems Engineering Handbook, elements of a system can include people, hardware, software, facilities, policies and documents; all things required to produce system-level results, qualities, properties, characteristics, functions, behavior and performance. The ICARE method can be used to improve all elements of a system and, consequently, the system-level functional, physical and operational performance. Even though ICARE was specifically designed for a systems engineer, any person whose job is to examine another person, product, or process can use the ICARE method to improve effectiveness, implementation, usefulness, value, capability, efficiency, integration, design, and/or marketability. This paper provides the details of the ICARE method, emphasizing the method s application to systems engineering. In addition, a sample of other, non-systems engineering applications are briefly discussed to demonstrate how ICARE can be tailored to a variety of diverse jobs (from project management to parenting).

Henke, Luke↗

Astrophysical Model Selection in Gravitational Wave Astronomy

Theoretical studies in gravitational wave astronomy have mostly focused on the information that can be extracted from individual detections, such as the mass of a binary system and its location in space. Here we consider how the information from multiple detections can be used to constrain astrophysical population models. This seemingly simple problem is made challenging by the high dimensionality and high degree of correlation in the parameter spaces that describe the signals, and by the complexity of the astrophysical models, which can also depend on a large number of parameters, some of which might not be directly constrained by the observations. We present a method for constraining population models using a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach which simultaneously infers the source parameters and population model and provides the joint probability distributions for both. We illustrate this approach by considering the constraints that can be placed on population models for galactic white dwarf binaries using a future space-based gravitational wave detector. We find that a mission that is able to resolve approximately 5000 of the shortest period binaries will be able to constrain the population model parameters, including the chirp mass distribution and a characteristic galaxy disk radius to within a few percent. This compares favorably to existing bounds, where electromagnetic observations of stars in the galaxy constrain disk radii to within 20%.

hierarchical↗

Electrochemical Response of Alkaline Batteries Subject to Quasi-Static and Dynamic Loading

We report electrochemical changes were successfully monitored through the coupling of external loading, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), and distribution of relaxation times (DRT) analysis. The development of the testing methods allows for detailed observation of changes due to mechanical loading and distinguishes responses between different cell geometries. Comparison of the force vs displacement, voltage vs displacement, and distribution of relaxation times plots to the different cell geometries display failure modes specific to geometry as well as the impact of different loading profiles. Numerical modeling confirmed the movement within individual cells and predicted locations with the most deformation based on the external loading condition applied. The results gathered from combining mechanical loading, electrochemical response, and numerical modeling, yield a viable approach to establishing an improved understanding of the effects of mechanical loading on the electrochemical response of multiple battery geometries and the methods herein may be extensible to additional battery chemistries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Adaptive Error Estimation in Linearized Ocean General Circulation Models

Data assimilation methods are routinely used in oceanography. The statistics of the model and measurement errors need to be specified a priori. This study addresses the problem of estimating model and measurement error statistics from observations. We start by testing innovation based methods of adaptive error estimation with low-dimensional models in the North Pacific (5-60 deg N, 132-252 deg E) to TOPEX/POSEIDON (TIP) sea level anomaly data, acoustic tomography data from the ATOC project, and the MIT General Circulation Model (GCM). A reduced state linear model that describes large scale internal (baroclinic) error dynamics is used. The methods are shown to be sensitive to the initial guess for the error statistics and the type of observations. A new off-line approach is developed, the covariance matching approach (CMA), where covariance matrices of model-data residuals are "matched" to their theoretical expectations using familiar least squares methods. This method uses observations directly instead of the innovations sequence and is shown to be related to the MT method and the method of Fu et al. (1993). Twin experiments using the same linearized MIT GCM suggest that altimetric data are ill-suited to the estimation of internal GCM errors, but that such estimates can in theory be obtained using acoustic data. The CMA is then applied to T/P sea level anomaly data and a linearization of a global GFDL GCM which uses two vertical modes. We show that the CMA method can be used with a global model and a global data set, and that the estimates of the error statistics are robust. We show that the fraction of the GCM-T/P residual variance explained by the model error is larger than that derived in Fukumori et al.(1999) with the method of Fu et al.(1993). Most of the model error is explained by the barotropic mode. However, we find that impact of the change in the error statistics on the data assimilation estimates is very small. This is explained by the large representation error, i.e. the dominance of the mesoscale eddies in the T/P signal, which are not part of the 21 by 1" GCM. Therefore, the impact of the observations on the assimilation is very small even after the adjustment of the error statistics. This work demonstrates that simult&neous estimation of the model and measurement error statistics for data assimilation with global ocean data sets and linearized GCMs is possible. However, the error covariance estimation problem is in general highly underdetermined, much more so than the state estimation problem. In other words there exist a very large number of statistical models that can be made consistent with the available data. Therefore, methods for obtaining quantitative error estimates, powerful though they may be, cannot replace physical insight. Used in the right context, as a tool for guiding the choice of a small number of model error parameters, covariance matching can be a useful addition to the repertory of tools available to oceanographers.

Chechelnitsky, Michael Y.↗

An application of eigenspace methods to symmetric flutter suppression

An eigenspace assignment approach to the design of parameter insensitive control laws for linear multivariable systems is presented. The control design scheme utilizes flexibility in eigenvector assignments to reduce control system sensitivity to changes in system parameters. The methods involve use of the singular value decomposition to provide an exact description of allowable eigenvectors in terms of a minimum number of design parameters. In a design example, the methods are applied to the problem of symmetric flutter suppression in an aeroelastic vehicle. In this example the flutter mode is sensitive to changes in dynamic pressure and eigenspace methods are used to enhance the performance of a stabilizing minimum energy/linear quadratic regulator controller and associated observer. Results indicate that the methods provide feedback control laws that make stability of the nominal closed loop systems insensitive to changes in dynamic pressure.

Fennell, Robert E.↗

Towards Flange-to-Flange Turbopump Simulations for Liquid Rocket Engines

The primary objective of this research is to support the design of liquid rocket systems for the Advanced Space Transportation System. Since the space launch systems in the near future are likely to rely on liquid rocket engines, increasing the efficiency and reliability of the engine components is an important task. One of the major problems in the liquid rocket engine is to understand fluid dynamics of fuel and oxidizer flows from the fuel tank to plume. Understanding the flow through the entire turbopump geometry through numerical simulation will be of significant value toward design. This will help to improve safety of future space missions. One of the milestones of this effort is to develop, apply and demonstrate the capability and accuracy of 3D CFD methods as efficient design analysis tools on high performance computer platforms. The development of the MPI and MLP versions of the INS3D code is currently underway. The serial version of INS3D code is a multidimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes solver based on overset grid technology. INS3D-MPI is based on the explicit massage-passing interface across processors and is primarily suited for distributed memory systems. INS3D-MLP is based on multi-level parallel method and is suitable for distributed-shared memory systems. For the entire turbopump simulations, moving boundary capability and an efficient time-accurate integration methods are build in the flow solver. To handle the geometric complexity and moving boundary problems, overset grid scheme is incorporated with the solver that new connectivity data will be obtained at each time step. The Chimera overlapped grid scheme allows subdomains move relative to each other, and provides a great flexibility when the boundary movement creates large displacements. The performance of the two time integration schemes for time-accurate computations is investigated. For an unsteady flow which requires small physical time step, the pressure projection method was found to be computationally efficient since it does not require any subiterations procedure. It was observed that the artificial compressibility method requires a fast convergence scheme at each physical time step in order to satisfy incompressibility condition. This was obtained by using a GMRES-ILU(0) solver in our computations. When a line-relaxation scheme was used, the time accuracy was degraded and time-accurate computations became very expensive. The current geometry for the LOX boost turbopump has various rotating and stationary components, such as inducer, stators, kicker, hydrolic turbine, where the flow is extremely unsteady. Figure 1 shows the geometry and computed surface pressure of the inducer. The inducer and the hydrolic turbine rotate in different rotational speed.

Kiris, Cetin↗