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DOE OSTI2026

Computing the Critical Temperature of the Affine-Transformed $D=3$ Ising Model Using Masked Autoregressive Flow

The simple Ising model provides a rich environment to build and study lattice field theories. As part of an ongoing project to construct a conformal field theory (CFT) on an arbitrarily curved manifold, in this work we develop methods to measure the critical temperature $β_c$ of the affine-transformed Ising model on the face-centered cubic (FCC) lattice. The main challenge in this endeavor is finding a computationally efficient and accurate method of interpolating and extrapolating Monte Carlo observables with respect to coupling coefficients and temperature. Herein, we compare two such methods. A traditional statistical approach uses the multiple histogram (MH) method, while a newer machine learning approach uses a masked autoregressive flow (MAF) to estimate the underlying probability density function of a set of observables. While the MH method is specifically designed to interpolate and extrapolate Monte Carlo observables, we find that MAF is a viable alternative for measuring $β_c$ with a computational cost that scales more favorably. Furthermore, we comment on additional advantages of MAF relevant to our work, such as extrapolating in system volume.

Svenson, Kai [Texas U.]↗

DOE OSTI2021

Application of Site Controllers for Electrification of Commercial Fleet Vehicles

Electrification of transportation fleets presents a significant challenge for commercial customers. These challenges can be specific to region, weather, operating schedule, charging infrastructure, and other factors. This paper presents the value of integrating a site controller to monitor the health of assets and co-optimize the operation of commercial sites with multiple distributed energy resource technologies and electric vehicle fleets. The tests demonstrate smart-charging and vehicle-to-building uses compared to business-as-usual cases. The secondary objectives of power management for the customer vehicle are optimized by a planning tool (REopt) and integrated using the site controller. Any deviations from the planned dispatch are addressed by the real-time controllers offering tertiary controls, such as energy management, and limiting the reverse power flow (back into the grid). The results indicate that site controllers offer an efficient solution to manage the health of the connected assets and a scalable means to optimize the operations of a commercial customer with electrified transportation fleets.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Blockchain for Fault-Tolerant Grid Operations Version 2.0

This report explores the potential of distributed ledger technology (DLT) as a transformative tool to enhance fault-tolerant operations in electrical distribution systems. Leveraging DLT's core attributes, including an immutable decentralized ledger, distributed consensus mechanisms, and state replication capabilities, this study focuses on three critical use cases. A central aspect of this research centers on the utilization of a consensus-driven ledger, providing actors within the system, such as distributed resources, with access to a reliable data repository. This empowers these actors to collaborate effectively and make informed decisions, all securely recorded on the blockchain. The first use case concentrates on data configuration, utilizing mathematical criteria---particularly, the chi-squared test for gross error detection---to identify trustworthy sensors for advanced decision-making. Building upon this foundation of trust, the second use case, topology identification, accurately determines circuit breaker states, unveiling the distribution network's topology. Ultimately, the third use case leverages this trust to execute switching actions, reconfiguring feeders and restoring power to disconnected customers after fault events. The concept of trust serves as a cornerstone in this approach, marking a departure from traditional fault location, isolation, and service restoration (FLISR) methods. Additionally, the blockchain-based architecture introduces decentralization, empowering disconnected areas to make autonomous decisions, even when communication with a central control center is disrupted. The primary contributions of this report are twofold: (1) a novel approach for evaluating distribution system voltage areas while preserving data ownership and (2) the implementation of interactions between distribution network areas using the actor model. Unlike the previous sequential approach for evaluating the area connection voltages, which required a radial network topology, this study's area model reduction enables a more versatile approach. The area model reduction addresses issues of prolonged data waiting times and multiple points of failure within the previous approach. Notably, the presented evaluation for the reduced network model area connection reveals a significant increase in the differences in voltage magnitudes. Simulation and evaluation of area agents across four distinct cases elucidate the area-level interaction behavior during a fault event. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed distributed FLISR (DFLISR) approach can successfully restore service to an affected area. Varying message delays and message loss probabilities in each simulation case underscore their impacts on restoration times, ranging from 3 min and 32 s to 6 min and 19 s. In contrast, power is not restored in an area in one of our simulation cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2020

High-capacity ATHLETE Offloader Mobility Constructor Concept for Human Surface Exploration

Using cross-cabled, winch-tendon four-bar frames, a new Artemis-class ATHLETE system is a multi-limbed robotic mobility platform that is designed for surface traverse, precision placement, and offloading of heavy habitats and other large human exploration payloads from high-decked landers. Building upon lessons learned from the All-Terrain Hex-Limbed Extra-Terrestrial Explorer (ATHLETE) robotic mobility system developed for Constellation Lunar Surface Systems and Evolvable Mars Campaign, a high-capacity articulated crane / lift vehicle concept has been devised that would be equipped with multi-limb six-degree-of-freedom dexterity for a variety of tasks supporting planetary surface human exploration missions and outposts. The Artemis-class ATHLETE vehicle would use any combination of three to six wheel-onlimb combinations to provide a wide “outrigger” stance to transfer loads from a high center-of-gravity on sloped terrain to low stable carry configurations for long-distance traverses, and be capable of precision docking of payloads to previously positioned elements. The new vehicle concept improves upon previous Constellation-class ATHLETE versions by allowing modular hot-swapping of individual limbs to improve maintenance and flexibility. The extreme-capacity independent limbs can individually function as single cranes, and can be delivered separately via multiple lander manifests for later congregation into self-driving “Tri-ATHLETE” vehicles after delivery to the surface. This paper provides mission architecture targets and vehicle masses for stepped payload capacity values in Earth, Mars, and Lunar gravity environments, and discusses a variety of swappable tools, including wheeled mobility attachments, grippers, excavation tools, repair fixtures, ISRU extraction, winches, block & tackle rigging combinations, 3D printheads, and construction aids.

Wilcox, Brian↗

DOE OSTI2026

In Search of Strategic Advantage: Understanding the Landscape of Technology Competition

In an era of seemingly ever-increasing global tensions, technology competition is often mentioned as a pathway for U.S. and allied success. The opening arguments are often very simple. “This is the most important struggle of the 21st century.” “We cannot afford to lose this competition.” “The United States must not fall behind in this race.” “We must be faster, more agile, more committed, more thoughtful than our competitors.” Competition around a particular technology is described as a once in a generational struggle with immense stakes. “This is a Sputnik moment” is a common analogy. The solutions proposed are fairly straightforward – more of everything. We should spend more money. We should build more widgets or more factories. We should innovate more. We should focus more. We should attract more talent. We should file more patents. We should produce more PhDs. If we do more of everything, we will have more technology than our opponents, they will see our technological advantage, they will not challenge us, and therefore we will win. If we fail to do these things, we will lose. To paraphrase Homer Simpson, in national security policy discussions technology competition has become the cause of, and solution to, all of life’s problems. And yet, beyond doing more across the board technology competition is not at all simple. First, it is a concept increasingly muddled together with other big issues such as innovation policy, national defense strategy, great power competition, allied cooperation, public-private partnerships, and a host of other issues. Certain policies, systems, coalitions, and so on may be excellent for tackling one challenge, but far less optional for others. Second, it is inherently dynamic, an action-reaction cycle between multiple players. A brilliant opening move can be squandered or successfully countered in subsequent moves. Third, there are limits to what you can do - limited time, limited financial resources, limited human capital, and limited knowledge of what lies ahead. One is forced to choose.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2022

Lunar Communications Services with Emphasis on Commercialization

In mid-2020 Lockheed Marin Space (LM) and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) formed a working group to study and address the need for a lunar communications network to service a growing lunar economy, beginning with the initial crewed and robotic mission needs in 2024. Multiple commercial relay architectures were studied and evaluated for platform requirements, communications capabilities, and commercial business viability in a growing ecosystem. The evolution of communications needs around the Moon were mapped to infrastructure build out. Trade studies were performed to evaluate reliability and lifetime requirements, and the viability of various data protocols. Mission concepts and operations plans were developed for both initial mission support and future autonomous network support. This work has led to Lockheed Martin and JPL to evaluate a single dedicated relay satellite in a frozen lunar orbit, with simultaneous coverage of the far-side and south pole landing sites for over 10 hours per day as a first step towards a comprehensive solution to lunar connectivity. This first satellite is compatible with an ESPA Grande launch volume and would be capable of launching on a rideshare into a variety of orbits and trajectories. The satellite is equipped with both high- and low-rate communications relay payloads with software-defined radios and a delay/disruption tolerant networking protocol. The system is designed to service initial and future mission needs in a commercialized manner, enabling a new class of missions to the Moon. The relay satellite leverages prior spacecraft platform work with on-orbit heritage in a lunar environment expected by 2023.

Davarian, Faramaz↗

DOE OSTI2025

Demonstration of and future perspective on scaling ultrafast-laser-ablation microstructuring of Li-ion battery electrodes to roll-to-roll production and large-format cells

This work demonstrates integration of an ultrafast laser onto a roll-to-roll machine, the laser structuring of a double-sided, 700 m long roll of graphite battery anode and its subsequent manufacture into 27 Ah prismatic cells. The electrode was ablated with a novel hybrid-microstructure composed of both hexagonally arranged pores for enhanced rate performance and channels for fast electrolyte wetting. Subsequently, this anode and a non-ablated baseline anode are paired with an NMC111 cathode for cell building and electrochemical characterization. Compared to the baseline, laser ablated cells demonstrated a reduction in soaking time of at least 60%, an improvement in fast charge capability with >30% more capacity accepted during 6C charging, and an extension of cycle life of >40% during 0.5C cycling. Further, a perspective is provided on scaling ultrafast laser ablation of battery electrodes to industrial throughputs. Additionally, lessons learned from this pilot-scale demonstration are provided in regards to optical architecture, debris removal, and system control. A techno-economic analysis is used to demonstrate that laser ablation can be integrated into existing electrode manufacturing facilities with only ≈$\$$1.3 per kWh increase (≈2%) in manufacturing cost. Preemptive electrode design for laser ablation is discussed as a further method for enhancing performance. Finally, an analysis of available laser systems and beam-scanning architectures is used to determine design requirements to scale process throughput to a state-of-the-art speed of 50 m min −1 . This analysis demonstrates that laser ablating Li-ion battery electrodes has multiple benefits to manufacturing and battery performance, that the technology already exists to achieve high laser-ablation throughputs, and that integrating ultrafast laser ablation to electrode manufacturing will not create a cost or processing bottleneck.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2000

Beyond Coordination: Joint Planning and Program Execution. The IHPRPT Materials Working Group

"Partnership is more than just coordination," stated then-Commander of the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), Major General Dick Paul (USAF-Ret), at this year's National Space and Missile Materials Symposium. His comment referred to the example of the joint planning and program execution provided by the Integrated High Payoff Rocket Propulsion Technology (IHPRPT) Materials Working Group (IMWG). Most people agree that fiscal pressures imposed by shrinking budgets have made it extremely difficult to build upon our existing technical capabilities. In times of sufficient budgets, building advanced systems poses no major difficulties. However, with today's budgets, realizing enhanced capabilities and developing advanced systems often comes at an unaffordable cost. Overcoming this problem represents both a challenge and an opportunity to develop new business practices that allow us to develop advanced technologies within the restrictions imposed by current funding levels. Coordination of technology developments between different government agencies and organizations is a valuable tool for technology transfer. However, rarely do the newly developed technologies have direct applicability to other ongoing programs. Technology requirements are typically determined up-front during the program planning stage so that schedule risk can be minimized. The problem with this process is that the costs associated with the technology development are often borne by a single program. Additionally, the potential exists for duplication of technical effort. Changing this paradigm is a difficult process but one that can be extremely worthwhile should the right opportunity arise. The IMWG is one such example where NASA, the DoD, and industry have developed joint requirements that are intended to satisfy multiple program needs. More than mere coordination, the organizations comprising the group come together as partners, sharing information and resources, proceeding from a joint roadmap.

Stropki, Michael A.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Ares V: Shifting the Payload Design Paradigm

NASA's Ares V heavy-lift cargo launch vehicle is being designed send more crew and cargo to more places on the lunar surface than the 1960s-era Apollo program and provide ongoing support to a permanent lunar outpost. In addition to that role, however, its unmatched mass and volume capability represent a global asset for exploration, science, and commerce. The Ares V also is an enabler of a large class of space missions not thought possible by scientists and engineers since the Saturn V program ended over 30 years ago. Compared to current systems, it will offer approximately 5 times the mass and volume to most orbits and locations. This should allow prospective mission planners to build robust payloads with margins that are 3 to 5 times the industry norm. The space inside the planned payload shroud has enough usable volume to launch the volumetric equivalent of approximately 10 Apollo Lunar Excursion Modules or approximately 5 equivalent Hubble Space Telescopes. This mass and volume capability to Low Earth Orbit enables a host of new scientific and observation platforms, such as telescopes, satellites, planetary and solar missions, as well as being able to provide the lift for future large in-space infrastructure missions, such as space based power and mining, Earth asteroid defense, propellant depots, etc. The Ares V team is engaging the potential payload community now, 2-3 years before System Requirements Review, in order to better understand the potential limitations and or additional requirements that could be added to the Ares V from the mission planning community. If a viable mission is determined and added to the Ares V as a design case, tradeoffs will be conducted to determine if other mission design requirements can be included in the system. Multiple shroud options for the Ares V have been analyzed to identify their impact on performance. Ares V is in a conceptual design stage prior to a formal design phase. The initial concept for the cargo launch vehicle (CaLV) that would later be dubbed "Ares V" was produced by the Exploration Systems Architecture Study in 2005. Since then, it has evolved through hundreds of concepts. The current point-of-departure (POD) concept was approved during the Lunar Capabilities Concept Review/Ares V Mission Concept Review in June 2008. This reference concept serves as a starting point for a renewed set of design trades and detailed analysis into its interaction with the other components of the Constellation architecture and existing launch infrastructure. This paper will discuss the Ares V design evolution, the most recent point-of-departure concept, and its capabilities to support future science missions.

Summrall, Phil↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enabling Principles for Dual Participation by Energy Storage as a Transmission and Market Asset

Because the electric transmission system is sized to meet the highest levels of customer demand, much of its designed capacity goes unused during average operating conditions. As a uniquely flexible and scalable asset capable of providing multiple grid services, energy storage can be deployed to support the transmission system and then also provide services to energy markets when not needed for transmission. This paper reviews the technical barriers in transmission planning practices and energy market design that prevent the realization of dual-use energy storage projects that provide both regulated transmission and competitive market services. Current practices create barriers against the identification of energy storage in the transmission planning process and against the participation of a regulated transmission asset in competitive energy markets. A review of regional transmission plans identifies best practices for including energy storage in the planning process by directing planners to proactively identify such projects or by providing clear mechanisms for stakeholders to propose them. Creating a market participation model for dual-use energy storage assets requires establishing when an asset will be allowed to participate in the market, how it will participate in the market, and where it will recover its costs. In answering these questions, key principles must be satisfied, such as prioritizing reliability, incrementally building on existing market design, and balancing competing objectives. Several policy options exist for satisfying those principles, giving grid operators and stakeholders significant flexibility in developing a dual-use participation model in accordance with regional policies and conditions. By objectively framing the issue and identifying policy options, this paper may inform subsequent proceedings on dual-use energy storage and be a resource to regional market operators, utilities, developers, regulators, policymakers, and other stakeholders as they collectively work on this complex issue.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Value in 2023: Market Data Shows the Value of Transmission Remained High in Certain Locations Despite Overall Low Wholesale Electricity Prices

In 2023 additional electricity transmission would have provided the most value for links that crossed between grid interconnection regions in the United States (the Western Interconnection, the Eastern Interconnection, the Texas Interconnection) or crossed between system operator regions within the same interconnection. Many multi-interconnection or multi-region links had values of greater than $\$20$/MWh, or up to $\$175$ million/yr per 1 GW expanded transmission (subject to limits to the depth of the market at each side of the link). In contrast, many links within regions, or between regions in the northeast, had relatively low values in 2023, following the overall decline in wholesale electricity prices in 2023 compared with 2021-2022. The most valuable link in 2023, at $\$61$ /MWh, was between Texas and the Southwest. Multiple events in 2023 (high natural gas prices in the western U.S., and high summer temperatures in Texas and the Southwest) were observed to have driven this high value. Of particular note, high prices in Texas occurred at a largely distinct set of hours from high prices in the Southwest, helping to drive up the value of transmission in total and demonstrating significant value to both regions. This example demonstrates the unique value of transmission (compared to other solutions, such as building local generation resources) in delivering benefits to multiple regions given its ability to connect areas of the country that inevitably face differing circumstances.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Manufacturing Process for the NASA Composite Crew Module Demonstration Structure

This paper will describe the approaches and methods selected in fabrication of a carbon composite demonstration structure for the Composite Crew Module (CCM) Program. The program is managed by the NASA Safety and Engineering Center with participants from ten NASA Centers and AFRL. Multiple aerospace contractors are participating in the design development, tooling and fabrication effort as well. The goal of the program is to develop an agency wide design team for composite habitable spacecraft. The specific goals for this development project are: a).To gain hands on experience in design, building and testing a composite crew module. b) To validate key assumptions by resolving composite spacecraft design details through fabrication and testing of hardware. This abstract is based on Preliminary Design data..The final design will continue to evolve through the fall of 2007 with fabrication mostly completed by conference date. From a structures perspective, the.CCM can be viewed as a pressure module with variable pressure time histories and a series of both impact and quasi-static, high intensity point, line, and area distributed loads. The portion of the overall space vehicle being designed and. fabricated by the CCM team is just the pressure module and primary loading points. The heaviest point loads are applied and distributed to the pressure module at.an aluminum Service Module/Alternate Launch Abort System (SM/ALAS) fittings and at Main and Drogue Chute fittings. Significant line loads with metal to metal impact is applied at.the Lids ring. These major external point and line loads as well as pressure impact loads (blast and water landing) are applied to the lobed floor though the reentry shield and crushable materials. The pressure module is divided into upper and lower. shells that mate together with a bonded belly band splice joint to create the completed structural assembly. The benefits of a split CCM far outweigh the risks of a joint. These benefits include lower tooling cost and less manufacturing risk. Assembly of the top and bottom halves of the pressure shell will allow access to the interior of the shell throughout remaining fabrication sequence and can also potentially permit extensive installation of equipment and .crew facilities prior to final assembly of the two shell halves. A Pi pre-form is a woven carbon composite material which is provided in pre-impregnated form and frozen for long term storage. The cross-section shape allows the top of the pi to be bonded to a flat or curved surface with a second flat plate composite section bonded between two upstanding legs of the Pi. One of the regions relying on the merits of the Pi pre-form is the backbone. All connections among plates of the backbone structure, including the upper flanges, and to the lobe base of the pressure shell are currently joined by Pi pre-forms. The intersection of backbone composite plates is formed by application of two Pi pre-forms, top flanges and lobed surfaces are bonded with one Pi pre-form. The process of applying the pre-impregnated pi-preform will be demonstrated to include important steps like surface preparation, forming, application of pressure dams, vacuum bagging for consolidation, and curing techniques. Chopped carbon fiber tooling was selected over other traditional metallic and carbon fiber tooling. The requirement of schedule and cost economy for a moderate reuse cure tool warranted composite tooling options. Composite tooling schedule duration of 18 weeks compared favorably against other metallic tooling including invar tooling. Composite tooling also shows significant cost savings over low CTE metallic options. The composite tooling options were divided into two groups and the final decision was based on the cost, schedule, tolerance, temperature, and reuse requirements.

Pelham, Larry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Correlated Electromagnetic Levitation Actuator: A Reaction Sphere-Based Attitude Control System

To address problems experienced by current reaction wheels and control moment gyroscopebased attitude control systems (ACS), researchers at National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have begun developing a reaction sphere actuator based on correlated electromagnetic levitation that will be immune to destructive bearing friction, momentum saturation, and gimbal lock. The Correlated Electromagnetic Levitation Actuator (CELA) advances the state of the art of reaction sphere ACSs by employing the concept of correlated magnetics. It is a frictionless, direct-drive reaction sphere that harnesses a unique technology with an array of applications across multiple disciplines. Correlated electromagnets function in a manner that is analogous to a matched filter; the convolution of two signals is peaked at the index representing the greatest match. For CELA, the signals are the patterns of magnetic flux density as a function of position. The magnitude of the convolution equates to an attractive or repulsive force, and these forces can be azimuthal or radial. The development of CELA is based in four distinct disciplines: Advanced Manufacturing, Prototype Development, Electromagnetic Modeling, and Controls. We are developing novel manufacturing techniques required to build arrays of permanent and electromagnet dipoles on curved surfaces. To print the permanent magnetic array, we have developed a probe with pyramidal magnets that will reside on a robotic arm to induce localized magnetic fields on a surface. We have also used high temperature ovens to erase dipole patterns from a permanent magnet by heating the surface to its Curie temperature. A number of test articles and prototypes have been developed using additive manufacturing methods. These prototypes have included hemispherical motors to test the drive algorithm, and a levitation test bed that demonstrates a magnetic bearing method based on attractive magnetic forces and ratiometric Hall effect sensors. We developed an array of electromagnetic dipoles on a printed circuit board (PCB) with individual H-bridges controlling each coil. This device created various flux density patterns and we measured their magnetic fields using a custom Hall effect 3-D probe and a LabVIEW virtual instrument. These data will serve as a benchmark for characterizing the accuracy of future models. Current work is focused on modeling the magnetic fields of our prototype arrays using COMSOL finite element analysis (FEA) and verifying the model against our test data. Accurate modeling will allow us to quickly test new patterns of electromagnets and their macro behavior. Eventually, the magnetic field models will be implemented in our controls simulations to facilitate precise control of the reaction sphere. Initial model results agree with field measurements to within 1 G (5% of measured flux density). Currently, we are testing different material properties of the electromagnets and their magnetic fields and thermal effects. These results will be used to refine the design of the electromagnetic dipoles. Our control efforts have centered on developing commutation, levitation, and field pattern shaping hardware in the form of breadboards and PCBs with software running on a local microcontroller. In addition, our partners developed MATLAB Simulink models to demonstrate a PID controller that mitigates disturbance forces resulting from the interaction of drive and levitation magnetics. Finally, we have designed a three-axis test stand that will be used in future work to demonstrate CELA’s orientation control capability.

reaction sphere↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Survey of ISS and Visiting Vehicle Returned Surfaces for Environmental Characterization and Computer Model Development

The Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) developed by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) is a data-driven model — extensive radar, optical, laboratory, and in situ measurement data sets have been used to build the model since its earliest versions. A salient aspect of professional software development is the verification and validation (V&V) process. Verification answers the question “Is the model built correctly?” while validation addresses the question “Did we build the correct model?” Less extensive, reserved, or independent data sets serve the validation requirement. Due to the dynamic nature of the orbital debris environment, it is critical to use contemporaneous data sources that represent the current environment to support ORDEM development and validation. ORDEM has utilized in situ data collected from Space Shuttle and Hubble Space Telescope surface inspections, now over a decade old. This historical dataset is fundamental for providing baseline in situ measurement data for sizes between 10 to 300 microns, but new data sources are being evaluated using returned surfaces from or near the International Space Station (ISS). This paper reviews a general microscopic survey of ISS soft goods, the Pressurized Mating Adapter 2 (PMA-2) blanket, and a limited-scope feasibility study conducted on the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) Dragon capsule’s Thermal Protection System (TPS) material. The PMA-2 blanket, exposed to the space environment between 09 July 2013 and 25 February 2015, is an approximately 3.7 m2-area blanket composed of a betacloth outer layer and multiple ballistic fabric inner layers. The SpaceX Cargo Dragon capsule regularly visited the ISS from 2012 through 2020 and potentially provides a timely and well-characterized source of data for modeling purposes. The capsule’s lateral surfaces use SpaceX Proprietary Ablative Material (SPAM) TPS material, a syntactic foam, for thermal management during all mission phases. Seven SPAM extracted samples have been analyzed to date. This paper will provide an overview of the characterization completed for impact features by size, depth, impactor diameter, and the impactor residues chemical analyses, allowing a differentiation between micrometeoroids and orbital debris and a categorization by mass density and density class. Impactor diameter is estimated using damage equations generated from ground-based hypervelocity impact testing. The orbital debris impactors are compared to the current ORDEM 3.2 model of the environment at ISS altitudes. We briefly discuss the meteoroid impactors, including constituents and mass densities, in the general context of current models.

Phillip Anz-meador↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Survey of ISS and Visiting Vehicle Returned Surfaces for Environmental Characterization and Computer Model Development

Phillip Anz-Meador↗

NASA NTRS2010

Project M: Scale Model of Lunar Landing Site of Apollo 17: Focus on Lighting Conditions and Analysis

This document captures the research and development of a scale model representation of the Apollo 17 landing site on the moon as part of the NASA INSPIRE program. Several key elements in this model were surface slope characteristics, crater sizes and locations, prominent rocks, and lighting conditions. This model supports development of Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) and Project M for the GN&C Autonomous Flight Systems Branch. It will help project engineers visualize the landing site, and is housed in the building 16 Navigation Systems Technology Lab. The lead mentor was Dr. Timothy P. Crain. The purpose of this project was to develop an accurate scale representation of the Apollo 17 landing site on the moon. This was done on an 8'2.5"X10'1.375" reduced friction granite table, which can be restored to its previous condition if needed. The first step in this project was to research the best way to model and recreate the Apollo 17 landing site for the mockup. The project required a thorough plan, budget, and schedule, which was presented to the EG6 Branch for build approval. The final phase was to build the model. The project also required thorough research on the Apollo 17 landing site and the topography of the moon. This research was done on the internet and in person with Dean Eppler, a space scientist, from JSC KX. This data was used to analyze and calculate the scale of the mockup and the ratio of the sizes of the craters, ridges, etc. The final goal was to effectively communicate project status and demonstrate the multiple advantages of using our model. The conclusion of this project was that the mockup was completed as accurately as possible, and it successfully enables the Project M specialists to visualize and plan their goal on an accurate three dimensional surface representation.

Vanik, Christopher S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Understanding Climate Policy Data Needs. NASA Carbon Monitoring System Briefing: Characterizing Flux Uncertainty, Washington D.C., 11 January 2012

Climate policy in the United States is currently guided by public-private partnerships and actions at the local and state levels. This mitigation strategy is made up of programs that focus on energy efficiency, renewable energy, agricultural practices and implementation of technologies to reduce greenhouse gases. How will policy makers know if these strategies are working, particularly at the scales at which they are being implemented? The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) will provide information on carbon dioxide fluxes derived from observations of earth's land, ocean and atmosphere used in state of the art models describing their interactions. This new modeling system could be used to assess the impact of specific policy interventions on CO2 reductions, enabling an iterative, results-oriented policy process. In January of 2012, the CMS team held a meeting with carbon policy and decision makers in Washington DC to describe the developing modeling system to policy makers. The NASA CMS will develop pilot studies to provide information across a range of spatial scales, consider carbon storage in biomass, and improve measures of the atmospheric distribution of carbon dioxide. The pilot involves multiple institutions (four NASA centers as well as several universities) and over 20 scientists in its work. This pilot study will generate CO2 flux maps for two years using observational constraints in NASA's state-of -the-art models. Bottom-up surface flux estimates will be computed using data-constrained land and ocean models; comparison of the different techniques will provide some knowledge of uncertainty in these estimates. Ensembles of atmospheric carbon distributions will be computed using an atmospheric general circulation model (GEOS-5), with perturbations to the surface fluxes and to transport. Top-down flux estimates will be computed from observed atmospheric CO2 distributions (ACOS/GOSAT retrievals) alongside the forward-model fields, in conjunction with an inverse approach based on the CO2 model of GEOS ]Chem. The forward model ensembles will be used to build understanding of relationships among surface flux perturbations, transport uncertainty and atmospheric carbon concentration. This will help construct uncertainty estimates and information on the true spatial resolution of the top-down flux calculations. The relationship between the top-down and bottom-up flux distributions will be documented. Because the goal of NASA CMS is to be policy relevant, the scientists involved in the flux modeling pilot need to understand and be focused on the needs of the climate policy and decision making community. If policy makers are to use CMS products, they must be aware of the modeling effort and begin to design policies that can be evaluated with information. Improving estimates of carbon sequestered in forests, for example, will require information on the spatial variability of forest biomass that is far more explicit than is presently possible using only ground observations. Carbon mitigation policies being implemented by cities around the United States could be designed with the CMS data in mind, enabling sequential evaluation and subsequent improvements in incentives, structures and programs. The success of climate mitigation programs being implemented in the United States today will hang on the depth of the relationship between scientists and their policy and decision making counterparts. Ensuring that there is two-way communication between data providers and users is important for the success both of the policies and the scientific products meant to support them..

Brown, Molly E.↗

NASA NTRS2022

How Well do Multisatellite Products Capture the Space-Time Dynamics of Precipitation? Part II: Building an Error Model Through Spectral System Identification

Satellite precipitation products, as all quantitative estimates, come with some inherent degree of uncertainty. To associate a quantitative value of the uncertainty to each individual estimate, error modeling is necessary. Most of the error models proposed so far compute the uncertainty as a function of precipitation intensity only, and only at one specific spatio-temporal scale. We propose a spectral error model which accounts for the neighboring space-time dynamics of precipitation into the uncertainty quantification. Systematic distortions of the precipitation signal and random errors are characterized distinctively in every frequency-wavenumber band in the Fourier domain, to accurately characterize error across scales. The systematic distortions are represented as a deterministic space-time linear filtering term. The random errors are represented as a non-stationary additive noise. The spectral error model is applied to the IMERG multi satellite precipitation product and its parameters are estimated empirically through a system identification approach using the GV-MRMS gauge-radar measurements as reference (“truth”) over the eastern United States. The filtering term is found to be essentially low-pass. While traditional error models attribute most of the error variance to random errors, it is found here that the systematic filtering term explains 48% of the error variance at the native resolution of IMERG. This fact confirms that, at high resolution, filtering effects in satellite precipitation products cannot be ignored, and that the error cannot be represented as a purely random additive or multiplicative term. An important consequence is that precipitation estimates derived from totally different sources shall not be expected to automatically have statistically independent errors.

Precipitation↗