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At least 919 records · Page 51
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanistic modelling of SARS-CoV-2 and other infectious diseases and the effects of therapeutics

Modern viral kinetic modeling and its application to therapeutics is a field that attracted the attention of the medical, pharmaceutical and modeling communities during the early days of the AIDS epidemic. Its successes lead to applications of modeling methods not only to HIV but a plethora of other viruses, such as hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and cytomegalovirus (CMV), which along with HIV cause chronic diseases, and viruses such as influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), West Nile virus (WNV), Zika virus, and SAR-CoV-2, which generally cause acute infections. Here we first review the historical development of mathematical models to understand HIV and HCV infections and the effects of treatment by fitting the models to clinical data. Furthermore, we then focus on recent efforts and contributions of applying these models towards understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection and highlight outstanding questions where modeling can provide crucial insights and help to optimize non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions of the COVID-19 pandemic. The review is written from our personal perspective emphasizing the power of simple target cell limited models that provided important insights and then their evolution into more complex models that captured more of the virology and immunology. To quote Albert Einstein “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler”, and this idea underlies the modeling we describe below.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Does the leaf economic spectrum hold within plant functional types? A Bayesian multivariate trait meta-analysis

The leaf economic spectrum is a widely-studied axis of plant trait variability that defines a trade-off between leaf longevity and productivity. While this has been investigated at the global scale, where it is robust, and at local scales, where deviations from it are common, it has received less attention at the intermediate scale of PFTs. We investigated whether global leaf economic relationships are also present within the scale of plant functional types (PFTs) commonly used by Earth System models, and the extent to which this global-PFT hierarchy can be used to constrain trait estimates. We developed a hierarchical multivariate Bayesian model that assumes separate means and covariance structures within and across PFTs and fit this model to seven leaf traits from the TRY database related to leaf longevity, morphology, biochemistry, and photosynthetic metabolism. Although patterns of trait covariation were generally consistent with the leaf economic spectrum, we found three approximate tiers to this consistency. Relationships among morphological and biochemical traits (SLA, N, P) were the most robust within and across PFTs, suggesting that covariation in these traits is driven by universal leaf construction trade-offs and stoichiometry. Relationships among metabolic traits (R_d, V_{c,max}, J_max) were slightly less consistent, reflecting in part their much sparser sampling (especially for high-latitude PFTs), but also pointing to more flexible plasticity in plant metabolistm. Finally, relationships involving leaf lifespan were the least consistent, indicating that leaf economic relationships related to leaf lifespan are dominated by across-PFT differences and that within-PFT variation in leaf lifespan is more complex and idiosyncratic. Across all traits, these covariance were an important source of information, as evidenced by the improved imputation accuracy and reduced predictive uncertainty in multivariate models compared to univariate models. Ultimately, our study reaffirms the value of studying not just individual traits but the multivariate trait space and the utility of hierarchical modeling for studying the scale dependence of trait relationships.

biodiversity, ecological modeling, ecology, leaf b↗
NASA NTRS1995

Deep galaxy counts in the K band with the Kech telescope

We present deep galaxy counts in the K (lambda 2.2 micrometer) band, obtained at the W. M. Kech 10 m telescope. The data reach limiting magnitudes K approximately 24 mag, about 5 times deeper than the deepest published K-band images to date. The counts are performed in three small (approximately 1 min), widely separated high-latitude fields. Extensive Monte Carlo tests were used to derive the comleteness corrections and minimize photometric biases. The counts continue to rise, with no sign of a turnover, down to the limits of our data, with the logarithmic slope of d log N/dm = 0.315 +/- 0.02 between K = 20 and 24 mag. This implies a cumulative surface density of approximately 5 x 10(exp 5) galaxies/sq deg, or approximately 2 x 10(exp 10) over the entire sky, down to K = 24 mag. Our counts are in good agreement with, although slightly lower than, those from the Hawaii Deep Survey by Cowie and collaborators; the discrepancies may be due to the small differences in the aperture corrections. We compare our counts with some of the available theoretical predictions. The data do not require models with a high value of Omega(sub 0), but can be well fitted by models with no (or little) evolution, and cosmologies with a low value of Omega(sub 0). Given the uncertainties in the models, it may be premature to put useful constrains on the value of Omega(sub 0) from the counts alone. Optical-to-IR colors are computed, using CCD data obtaind previously at Palomar. We find a few red galaxies with (r-K) approximately greater than 5 mag, or (i-K) approximately greater than 5 mag; these may be ellipticals at z approximately 1. While the redshift distribution of galaxies in our counts is still unknown, the flux limits reached would allow us to detect unobscured L(sub *) galaxies out to substantial redshifts (z greater than 3?).

Djorgovski, S.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Analytic Guided-Search Model of Human Performance Accuracy in Target- Localization Search Tasks

Current models of human visual search have extended the traditional serial/parallel search dichotomy. Two successful models for predicting human visual search are the Guided Search model and the Signal Detection Theory model. Although these models are inherently different, it has been difficult to compare them because the Guided Search model is designed to predict response time, while Signal Detection Theory models are designed to predict performance accuracy. Moreover, current implementations of the Guided Search model require the use of Monte-Carlo simulations, a method that makes fitting the model's performance quantitatively to human data more computationally time consuming. We have extended the Guided Search model to predict human accuracy in target-localization search tasks. We have also developed analytic expressions that simplify simulation of the model to the evaluation of a small set of equations using only three free parameters. This new implementation and extension of the Guided Search model will enable direct quantitative comparisons with human performance in target-localization search experiments and with the predictions of Signal Detection Theory and other search accuracy models.

Eckstein, Miguel P.↗
NASA NTRS2025

Shock-Stationary Application of Pseudoshock Models During High-Amplitude Combustion-Driven Unsteadiness

The isolator pseudo-shock provides necessary compression within a dual-mode scramjet engine and buffers the engine system against unstart. Quasi-1D flux-conserved models are the state-of-the-art reduced-order model for optimization and online control of dual-mode scramjet engines. The stability and efficacy of this modeling approach is evaluated against data from a combustor-driven direct-connect experiment. The experiment exhibited strong combustor-driven unsteadiness that produced upstream propagating weak shocks into the isolator, interacting with the pseudo-shock. While this configuration resulted in unsteadiness that is atypical of standard operation, the experiment provided an opportunity to evaluate the modeling techniques in highly transient states. Such transients could occur during maneuvering or result from unexpected combustor events. A flexible quasi-1D formulation, the Fievet flux-conserved model is fit using Bayesian inference in the laboratory and shock-stationary reference frames. Model performance is analyzed using the Bayesian posteriors and model evaluations over the measured shock train speed range. It is concluded that to produce consistent isolator pressure profile estimates in this unsteady environment, the model must be implemented in a shock-stationary reference frame. Implementing this conclusion in model-based engine controllers may reduce needed unstart safety margins and increase maximum performance.

Bayesian↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Likelihood for Small-Scale CMB Data

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope has measured the angular power spectra of microwave fluctuations to arcminute scales at frequencies of 148 and 218 GHz, from three seasons of data. At small scales the fluctuations in the primordial Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) become increasingly obscured by extragalactic foregounds and secondary CMB signals. We present results from a nine-parameter model describing these secondary effects, including the thermal and kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ and kSZ) power; the clustered and Poisson-like power from Cosmic Infrared Background (CIB) sources, and their frequency scaling; the tSZ-CIB correlation coefficient; the extragalactic radio source power; and thermal dust emission from Galactic cirrus in two different regions of the sky. In order to extract cosmological parameters, we describe a likelihood function for the ACT data, fitting this model to the multi-frequency spectra in the multipole range 500 < l < 10000. We extend the likelihood to include spectra from the South Pole Telescope at frequencies of 95, 150, and 220 GHz. Accounting for different radio source levels and Galactic cirrus emission, the same model provides an excellent fit to both datasets simultaneously, with χ2/dof= 675/697 for ACT, and 96/107 for SPT. We then use the multi-frequency likelihood to estimate the CMB power spectrum from ACT in bandpowers, marginalizing over the secondary parameters. This provides a simplified 'CMB-only' likelihood in the range 500 < l < 3500 for use in cosmological parameter estimation

Cosmology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Full Modeling and parameter compression methods in configuration space for DESI 2024 and beyond

In the contemporary era of high-precision spectroscopic surveys, led by projects like DESI, there is an increasing demand for optimizing the extraction of cosmological information from clustering data. This work conducts a thorough comparison of various methodologies for modeling the full shape of the two-point statistics in configuration space. We investigate the performance of both direct fits (Full Modeling) and the parameter compression approaches (ShapeFit and Standard). We utilize the ABACUS-SUMMIT simulations, tailored to exceed DESI's precision requirements. Particularly, we fit the two-point statistics of three distinct tracers (LRG, ELG, and QSO), by employing a Gaussian Streaming Model in tandem with Convolution Lagrangian Perturbation Theory and Effective Field Theory. We explore methodological setup variations, including the range of scales, the set of galaxy bias parameters, the inclusion of the hexadecapole, as well as model extensions encompassing varying ns and allowing for w 0 w a CDM dark energy model. Throughout these varied explorations, while precision levels fluctuate and certain configurations exhibit tighter parameter constraints, our pipeline consistently recovers the parameter values of the mocks within 1σ in all cases for a 1-year DESI volume. Additionally, we compare the performance of configuration space analysis with its Fourier space counterpart using three models: PyBird, FOLPS and velocileptors, presented in companion papers. We find good agreement with the results from all these models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Observations of ultraviolet-bright stars in globular clusters with the Hopkins Ultraviolet Telescope

Two UV-bright stars in globular clusters, UV5 in NGC 1851 and vZ 1128 in M3, were observed with the Hopkins Ultraviolet Telescope (HUT) during the Astro-1 space shuttle mission in 1990 December. The stars' spectra show weak absorption features and no significant emission features other than well known geocoronal lines. Detailed fitting of Kurucz (1991) stellar atmosphere models using a chi(sup 2) minimization technique indicates T(sub eff) = 16 000 K, log g = 2.5, and abundance (-1.0) (logarithm of abundance of elements heavier than helium relative to solar) for UV5, and T(sub eff) = 35 000 K, log g = 4.0, and abundance (-3.5) for vZ 1128. The Kurucz model which best fits vZ 1128 overpredicts the flux in the region below approximately 1000 A, an effect seen in previous models of O-type stars. Our results are robust (to within approximately 1000 K) with respect to uncertainties in interstellar reddening and atomic and molecular hydrogen column densities. We do not see significant molecular hydrogen absorption, which might have indicated material in a circumstellar shell, in either star's spectrum. We estimate the stellar luminosities to be log L/solar luminosity = 3.33 +/- 0.15 for UV5 and log L/solar luminosity = 3.21 +/- 0.12 for vZ 1128. These atmospheric parameters place both stars on the Schoenberner (post-AGB) tracks, though the stellar masses derived from the best-fitting Kurucz models are somewhat less than those predicted by the Schoenberner models. Examination of individual absorption line strengths reveals no significant abundance anomalies in either star.

Van Dyke Dixon, W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A critical assessment of solutions to the galaxy diversity problem

Galactic rotation curves exhibit a diverse range of inner slopes. Observational data indicates that explaining this diversity may require a mechanism that correlates a galaxy's surface brightness with the central-most region of its dark matter halo. Here, in this work, we compare several concrete models that capture the relevant physics required to explain the galaxy diversity problem. We focus specifically on a Self-Interacting Dark Matter (SIDM) model with an isothermal core and two Cold Dark Matter (CDM) models with/without baryonic feedback. In contrast to the CDM case, the SIDM model can lead to the formation of an isothermal core in the halo, and is also mostly insensitive to baryonic feedback processes, which act on longer time-scales. Using rotation curves from 90 galaxies in the Spitzer Photometry & Accurate Rotation Curves (SPARC) catalog, we perform a comprehensive model comparison that addresses issues of statistical methodology from prior works. The best-fit halo models that we recover are consistent with standard CDM concentration-mass and abundance matching relations. We find that both the SIDM and feedback-affected CDM models are better than a CDM model with no feedback in explaining the rotation curves of low and high surface brightness galaxies in the sample. However, when compared to each other, there is no strong statistical preference for either the SIDM or the feedback-affected CDM halo model as the source of galaxy diversity in the SPARC catalog.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robustness of cosmic birefringence measurement against Galactic foreground emission and instrumental systematics

The polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) can be used to search for parity-violating processes like that predicted by a Chern-Simons coupling to a light pseudoscalar field. Such an interaction rotates E modes into E modes in the observed CMB signal through an effect known as cosmic birefringence. Even though isotropic birefringence can be confused with the rotation produced by a miscalibration of the detectors' polarization angles, the degeneracy between both effects is broken when Galactic foreground emission is used as a calibrator. Here, in this work, we use realistic simulations of the High-Frequency Instrument of the Planck mission to test the impact that Galactic foreground emission and instrumental systematics have on the recent birefringence measurements obtained through this technique. Our results demonstrate the robustness of the methodology against the miscalibration of polarization angles and other systematic effects, like intensity-to-polarization leakage, beam leakage, or cross-polarization effects. However, our estimator is sensitive to the EB correlation of polarized foreground emission. Here we propose to correct the bias induced by dust EB by modeling the foreground signal with templates produced in Bayesian component-separation analyses that fit parametric models to CMB data. Acknowledging the limitations of currently available dust templates like that of the Commander sky model, high-precision CMB data and a characterization of dust beyond the modified blackbody paradigm are needed to obtain a definitive measurement of cosmic birefringence in the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reduced-Order Modeling of Hydrogen Releases from Vent Stacks and with Wind

This report describes computational modeling in the HyRAM+ software for study of hydrogen behavior in two common scenarios. First, models of unignited plumes exiting a vent stack were considered. It was shown that entrainment and vent backpressure were major factors in plume physics. Second, HyRAM+ was extended to include wind effects on plumes by modifying the plume momentum balance and entrainment modeling. Use of the model showed that plume shape and length changed with wind speed and direction; in all cases, wind causes a shortening of the plume along the streamline. While the no-wind case in HyRAM+ has been validated and the newly developed wind model was fitted to very limited experimental data, more controlled experimental configurations would help validate the models and ensure accurate simulation of hydrogen plume behavior for vent stack releases or in wind.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS1972

Backus-Gilbert inversion of travel time data

Application of the Backus-Gilbert theory for geophysical inverse problems to the seismic body wave travel-time problem is described. In particular, it is shown how to generate earth models that fit travel-time data to within one standard error and having generated such models how to describe their degree of uniqueness. An example is given to illustrate the process.

Johnson, L. E.↗
NASA NTRS1983

NTF model concept for the X-29A. Part 2: Design and fabrication concept

The first concept was done to determine if a small model to fit the NASA Langley sizing criteria could accommodate aerodynamic and mechanical requirements. For a model wing span of 1.7 ft (and a length of 3 ft), the model is 6.25 percent (1/16 scale). The results were encouraging enough for Grumman to request, in early December 1981, that the design concept be refined at NASA Langley, where up-to-date cryogenic model design information was available. This working session was completed by a Grumman designer by mid-December. In its present form, the concept will be the basis for any continued effort.

Toscano, G.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Methods to Improve the Maintenance of the Earth Catalog of Satellites During Severe Solar Storms

The objective of this thesis is to investigate methods to improve the ability to maintain the inventory of orbital elements of Earth satellites during periods of atmospheric disturbance brought on by severe solar activity. Existing techniques do not account for such atmospheric dynamics, resulting in tracking errors of several seconds in predicted crossing time. Two techniques are examined to reduce of these tracking errors. First, density predicted from various atmospheric models is fit to the orbital decay rate for a number of satellites. An orbital decay model is then developed that could be used to reduce tracking errors by accounting for atmospheric changes. The second approach utilizes a Kalman filter to estimate the orbital decay rate of a satellite after every observation. The new information is used to predict the next observation. Results from the first approach demonstrated the feasibility of building an orbital decay model based on predicted atmospheric density. Correlation of atmospheric density to orbital decay was as high as 0.88. However, it is clear that contemporary: atmospheric models need further improvement in modeling density perturbations polar region brought on by solar activity. The second approach resulted in a dramatic reduction in tracking errors for certain satellites during severe solar Storms. For example, in the limited cases studied, the reduction in tracking errors ranged from 79 to 25 percent.

Wilkin, Paul G.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A small-box approach to the local crystal structure of Y 3 NbO 7

The local crystal structure of Y 3 NbO 7 was probed using neutron total scattering. Five different structural models were fit to the experimental pair distribution function of this material up to 15 Å. Fits of defect fluorite (Fm$\overline{3}$m), pyrochlore (Fd$\overline{3}$m), and orthorhombic C weberite models (C222 1 ) were attempted based on prior structural investigations of Y 3 NbO 7 and related fluorite-based materials. Orthorhombic P weberite (P222 1 ) and monoclinic weberite models (P112 1 ) were derived via symmetry reduction of the orthorhombic C weberite structure. All models except monoclinic weberite failed to reproduce the experimental pair distribution function. Misfits were clearly visible for peaks arising from atom pairs within the first coordination shell (defect fluorite and pyrochlore) and beyond (orthorhombic C and P weberite). By contrast, monoclinic weberite (γ ≈ 91.8°) provided an excellent fit, with no major misfits observed. This unit cell features distorted YO 8 dodecahedra, YO 7 monocapped octahedra, and NbO 6 octahedra as building blocks. Comparison between the topologies of the cationic and anionic substructures in monoclinic weberite and its parent orthorhombic C structure revealed displacements of the metal atoms along the [100] direction and a less compact spatial distribution of oxygen atoms along the a axis. In conclusion, the monoclinic weberite model presented herein may serve as a starting point to revisit structural modeling of fluorite-based materials with challenging local structures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1990

Gaussian quadrature exponential sum modeling of near infrared methane laboratory spectra obtained at temperatures from 106 to 297 K

Transmission measurements made on near-infrared laboratory methane spectra have previously been fit using a Malkmus band model. The laboratory spectra were obtained in three groups at temperatures averaging 112, 188, and 295 K; band model fitting was done separately for each temperature group. These band model parameters cannot be used directly in scattering atmosphere model computations, so an exponential sum model is being developed which includes pressure and temperature fitting parameters. The goal is to obtain model parameters by least square fits at 10/cm intervals from 3800 to 9100/cm. These results will be useful in the interpretation of current planetary spectra and also NIMS spectra of Jupiter anticipated from the Galileo mission.

Giver, Lawrence P.↗