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DOE OSTI2012

Comparison of Different Upscaling Methods for Predicting Thermal Conductivity of Complex Heterogeneous Materials System: Application on Nuclear Waste Forms

To develop a strategy in thermal conductivity prediction of a complex heterogeneous materials system, loaded nuclear waste forms, the computational efficiency and accuracy of different upscaling methods have been evaluated. The effective thermal conductivity, obtained from microstructure information and local thermal conductivity of different components, is critical in predicting the life and performance of waste form during storage. Several methods, including the Taylor model, Sachs model, self-consistent model, and statistical upscaling method, were developed and implemented. Microstructure based finite element method (FEM) prediction results were used to as benchmark to determine the accuracy of the different upscaling methods. Micrographs from waste forms with varying waste loadings were used in the prediction of thermal conductivity in FEM and homogenization methods. Prediction results demonstrated that in term of efficiency, boundary models (e.g., Taylor model and Sachs model) are stronger than the self-consistent model, statistical upscaling method, and finite element method. However, when balancing computational efficiency and accuracy, statistical upscaling is a useful method in predicting effective thermal conductivity for nuclear waste forms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1978

A method for determining the weak statistical stationarity of a random process

A method for determining the weak statistical stationarity of a random process is presented. The core of this testing procedure consists of generating an equivalent ensemble which approximates a true ensemble. Formation of an equivalent ensemble is accomplished through segmenting a sufficiently long time history of a random process into equal, finite, and statistically independent sample records. The weak statistical stationarity is ascertained based on the time invariance of the equivalent-ensemble averages. Comparison of these averages with their corresponding time averages over a single sample record leads to a heuristic estimate of the ergodicity of a random process. Specific variance tests are introduced for evaluating the statistical independence of the sample records, the time invariance of the equivalent-ensemble autocorrelations, and the ergodicity. Examination and substantiation of these procedures were conducted utilizing turbulent velocity signals.

Sadeh, W. Z.↗

DOE OSTI2021

encore : an O ( N g2) estimator for galaxy N -point correlation functions

ABSTRACT We present a new algorithm for efficiently computing the N-point correlation functions (NPCFs) of a 3D density field for arbitrary N. This can be applied both to a discrete spectroscopic galaxy survey and a continuous field. By expanding the statistics in a separable basis of isotropic functions built from spherical harmonics, the NPCFs can be estimated by counting pairs of particles in space, leading to an algorithm with complexity $\mathcal {O}(N_\mathrm{g}^2)$ for Ng particles, or $\mathcal {O}(N_\mathrm{FFT}\log N_\mathrm{FFT})$ when using a Fast Fourier Transform with NFFT grid-points. In practice, the rate-limiting step for N > 3 will often be the summation of the histogrammed spherical harmonic coefficients, particularly if the number of radial and angular bins is large. In this case, the algorithm scales linearly with Ng. The approach is implemented in the encore code, which can compute the 3PCF, 4PCF, 5PCF, and 6PCF of a BOSS-like galaxy survey in ${\sim}100$ CPU-hours, including the corrections necessary for non-uniform survey geometries. We discuss the implementation in depth, along with its GPU acceleration, and provide practical demonstration on realistic galaxy catalogues. Our approach can be straightforwardly applied to current and future data sets to unlock the potential of constraining cosmology from the higher point functions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

A new method to reduce the statistical and systematic uncertainty of chance coincidence backgrounds measured with waveform digitizers

We present a new method for measuring chance-coincidence backgrounds during the collection of coincidence data. The method relies on acquiring data with near-zero dead time, which is now realistic due to the increasing deployment of flash electronic-digitizer (waveform digitizer) techniques. An experiment designed to use this new method is capable of acquiring more coincidence data, and a much reduced statistical fluctuation of the measured background. A statistical analysis is presented, and us ed to derive a figure of merit for the new method. Factors of four improvement over other analyses are realistic. The technique is illustrated with preliminary data taken as part of a program to make new measurements of the prompt fission neutron spectra at Los Alamo s Neutron Science Center. In conclusion, it is expected that the these measurements will occur in a regime where the maximum figure of merit will be exploited

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2016

VDES J2325-5229 a z = 2.7 gravitationally lensed quasar discovered using morphology-independent supervised machine learning

In this paper, we present the discovery and preliminary characterization of a gravitationally lensed quasar with a source redshift z s = 2.74 and image separation of 2.9 arcsec lensed by a foreground z l = 0.40 elliptical galaxy. Since optical observations of gravitationally lensed quasars show the lens system as a superposition of multiple point sources and a foreground lensing galaxy, we have developed a morphology-independent multi-wavelength approach to the photometric selection of lensed quasar candidates based on Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) supervised machine learning. Using this technique and gi multicolour photometric observations from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), near-IR JK photometry from the VISTA Hemisphere Survey (VHS) and WISE mid-IR photometry, we have identified a candidate system with two catalogue components with i AB = 18.61 and i AB = 20.44 comprising an elliptical galaxy and two blue point sources. Spectroscopic follow-up with NTT and the use of an archival AAT spectrum show that the point sources can be identified as a lensed quasar with an emission line redshift of z = 2.739 ± 0.003 and a foreground early-type galaxy with z = 0.400 ± 0.002. We model the system as a single isothermal ellipsoid and find the Einstein radius θ E ~ 1.47 arcsec, enclosed mass M enc ~ 4 × 10 11 M ⊙ and a time delay of ~52 d. Finally, the relatively wide separation, month scale time delay duration and high redshift make this an ideal system for constraining the expansion rate beyond a redshift of 1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Solar Power Ramp Events Detection Using an Optimized Swinging Door Algorithm: Preprint

Solar power ramp events (SPREs) are those that significantly influence the integration of solar power on non-clear days and threaten the reliable and economic operation of power systems. Accurately extracting solar power ramps becomes more important with increasing levels of solar power penetrations in power systems. In this paper, we develop an optimized swinging door algorithm (OpSDA) to detection. First, the swinging door algorithm (SDA) is utilized to segregate measured solar power generation into consecutive segments in a piecewise linear fashion. Then we use a dynamic programming approach to combine adjacent segments into significant ramps when the decision thresholds are met. In addition, the expected SPREs occurring in clear-sky solar power conditions are removed. Measured solar power data from Tucson Electric Power is used to assess the performance of the proposed methodology. OpSDA is compared to two other ramp detection methods: the SDA and the L1-Ramp Detect with Sliding Window (L1-SW) method. The statistical results show the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method. OpSDA can significantly improve the performance of the SDA, and it can perform as well as or better than L1-SW with substantially less computation time.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Understanding protein-complex assembly through grand canonical maximum entropy modeling

Inside a cell, heterotypic proteins assemble in inhomogeneous, crowded systems where the abundance of these proteins vary with cell types. While some protein complexes form putative structures that can be visualized with imaging, there are far more protein complexes that are yet to be solved because of their dynamic associations with one another. Nevertheless, it is possible to infer these protein complexes through a physical model. However, it is often not clear to physicists what kind of data from biology is necessary for such a modeling endeavor. Here, we aim to model these clusters of coarse-grained protein assemblies from multiple subunits through the constraints of interactions among the subunits and the chemical potential of each subunit. We obtained the constraints on the interactions among subunits from the known protein structures. We inferred the chemical potential that dictates the particle number distribution of each protein subunit from the knowledge of protein abundance from experimental data. Guided by the maximum entropy principle, we formulated an inverse statistical mechanical method to infer the distribution of particle numbers from the data of protein abundance as chemical potentials for a grand canonical multicomponent mixture. Using grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations, we captured a distribution of high-order clusters in a protein complex of succinate dehydrogenase with four known subunits. The complexity of hierarchical clusters varies with the relative protein abundance of each subunit in distinctive cell types such as lung, heart, and brain. When the crowding content increases, we observed that crowding stabilizes emergent clusters that do not exist in dilute conditions. We, therefore, proposed a testable hypothesis that the hierarchical complexity of protein clusters on a molecular scale is a plausible biomarker of predicting the phenotypes of a cell.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1985

Calculation of recoil implantation profiles using known range statistics

A method has been developed to calculate the depth distribution of recoil atoms that result from ion implantation onto a substrate covered with a thin surface layer. The calculation includes first order recoils considering projected range straggles, and lateral straggles of recoils but neglecting lateral straggles of projectiles. Projectile range distributions at intermediate energies in the surface layer are deduced from look-up tables of known range statistics. A great saving of computing time and human effort is thus attained in comparison with existing procedures. The method is used to calculate recoil profiles of oxygen from implantation of arsenic through SiO2 and of nitrogen from implantation of phosphorus through Si3N4 films on silicon. The calculated recoil profiles are in good agreement with results obtained by other investigators using the Boltzmann transport equation and they also compare very well with available experimental results in the literature. The deviation between calculated and experimental results is discussed in relation to lateral straggles. From this discussion, a range of surface layer thickness for which the method applies is recommended.

Fung, C. D.↗

DOE OSTI2018

A thought experiment to evaluate a proposed data analysis method

A statistical analysis was recently presented at a DOE review in reference to a particular problem. Here we attempt to capture the essence of this problem with a simple “toy” analog and demonstrate the incorrectness of the presented J figure of merit algorithm. We show that the incorrect usage of J gives PDFs that have erroneous long tails and significantly overestimate the rms deviations relative to those obtained by exact analytic methods. Conversely, a numerical Bayesian analysis gives the correct result.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2003

Taguchi statistical design and analysis of cleaning methods for spacecraft materials

In this study, we have extensively tested various cleaning protocols. The variant parameters included the type and concentration of solvent, type of wipe, pretreatment conditions, and various rinsing systems. Taguchi statistical method was used to design and evaluate various cleaning conditions on ten common spacecraft materials.

Taguchi cleaning spacecraft materials↗

DOE OSTI2017

Ultra-compact structure in radio quasars as a cosmological probe: a revised study of the interaction between cosmic dark sectors

A new compilation of 012 angular-size/redshift data for compact radio quasars from very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) surveys motivates us to revisit the interaction between dark energy and dark matter with these probes reaching high redshifts z ∼ 3.0. In this paper, we investigate observational constraints on different phenomenological interacting dark energy (IDE) models with the intermediate-luminosity radio quasars acting as individual standard rulers, combined with the newest BAO and CMB observation from Planck results acting as statistical rulers. The results obtained from the MCMC method and other statistical methods including figure of Merit and Information Criteria show that: (1) Compared with the current standard candle data and standard clock data, the intermediate-luminosity radio quasar standard rulers , probing much higher redshifts, could provide comparable constraints on different IDE scenarios. (2) The strong degeneracies between the interaction term and Hubble constant may contribute to alleviate the tension of H {sub 0} between the recent Planck and HST measurements. (3) Concerning the ranking of competing dark energy models, IDE with more free parameters are substantially penalized by the BIC criterion, which agrees very well with the previous results derived from other cosmological probes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2012

AGR-1 Thermocouple Data Analysis

This report documents an effort to analyze measured and simulated data obtained in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) fuel irradiation test program conducted in the INL's Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) to support the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) R&D program. The work follows up on a previous study (Pham and Einerson, 2010), in which statistical analysis methods were applied for AGR-1 thermocouple data qualification. The present work exercises the idea that, while recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR-1 test, results of the numerical simulations can be used in combination with the statistical analysis methods to further improve qualification of measured data. Additionally, the combined analysis of measured and simulation data can generate insights about simulation model uncertainty that can be useful for model improvement. This report also describes an experimental control procedure to maintain fuel target temperature in the future AGR tests using regression relationships that include simulation results. The report is organized into four chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the AGR Fuel Development and Qualification program, AGR-1 test configuration and test procedure, overview of AGR-1 measured data, and overview of physics and thermal simulation, including modeling assumptions and uncertainties. A brief summary of statistical analysis methods developed in (Pham and Einerson 2010) for AGR-1 measured data qualification within NGNP Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS) is also included for completeness. Chapters 2-3 describe and discuss cases, in which the combined use of experimental and simulation data is realized. A set of issues associated with measurement and modeling uncertainties resulted from the combined analysis are identified. This includes demonstration that such a combined analysis led to important insights for reducing uncertainty in presentation of AGR-1 measured data (Chapter 2) and interpretation of simulation results (Chapter 3). The statistics-based simulation-aided experimental control procedure described for the future AGR tests is developed and demonstrated in Chapter 4. The procedure for controlling the target fuel temperature (capsule peak or average) is based on regression functions of thermocouple readings and other relevant parameters and accounting for possible changes in both physical and thermal conditions and in instrument performance.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A method for predicting failure statistics for steady state elevated temperature structural components

This paper presents the initial development of a high temperature life prediction method that accounts for the variability in the material properties of Grade 91 steel. The method accounts for material variability by fitting a variable 3-parameter Weibull distribution to experimental rupture data and accounts for the variability of creep deformation on the steady-state stresses via a Monte Carlo approach. To ensure reasonable computational times, the model represents the material as an extremely viscous Stokes fluid with a non-Newtonian viscosity, therefore solving the stress relaxation problem with a steady, static, instead of transient, analysis. Furthermore, the complete statistical analysis combines this model for creep deformation with a probabilistic model for creep rupture to evaluate the probability of premature failure for a set of sample problems, comparing the predicted failure statistics to the design life predicted by the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code rules.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterization and differentiation of aluminum powders used in improvised explosive devices. Part 2: Micromorphometric method refinement and preliminary statistical analysis

Abstract Aluminum (Al) powder is commonly encountered in improvised explosive devices (IEDs) as a metallic fuel due to its availability and low cost. Although available commercially in powder form, amateur bomb‐makers also produce their own Al powder via simple methods found online. In order to provide investigative leads and forensic intelligence, it is important to evaluate not only the composition of homemade devices, but also to distinguish between the various forms of Al powder they contain. To achieve this goal, a method using automated microscopy in combination with statistical techniques has been demonstrated to have the potential to provide source discrimination and investigative leads in source attribution of Al powders in IEDs. The present research refined this method and investigated 59 industrially and amateurly produced Al powder sources with seven subsamples per source using two traditional linear discriminant analyses (LDA), one with a standard data split for training and testing, and another using leave‐one‐out cross‐validation. Averaging the classification accuracies for the two LDA‐based analyses, LDA has the ability to correctly classify 59.26%, 83.35%, and 80.69% of the samples based on their powder source, type, and production method, respectively. This classification accuracy represents a 3407%, 317%, and 61.38% increase in accuracy from random class assignment, respectively. Further, in most instances of incorrect data attribution to a particular source, the subsample has been misidentified with another sample of the same powder type or production method.

Ommen, Danica M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

International collaboration framework for the calculation of performance loss rates: Data quality, benchmarks, and trends (towards a uniform methodology)

Abstract The IEA PVPS Task 13 group, experts who focus on photovoltaic performance, operation, and reliability from several leading R&D centers, universities, and industrial companies, is developing a framework for the calculation of performance loss rates of a large number of commercial and research photovoltaic (PV) power plants and their related weather data coming across various climatic zones. The general steps to calculate the performance loss rate are (i) input data cleaning and grading; (ii) data filtering; (iii) performance metric selection, corrections, and aggregation; and finally, (iv) application of a statistical modeling method to determine the performance loss rate value. In this study, several high‐quality power and irradiance datasets have been shared, and the participants of the study were asked to calculate the performance loss rate of each individual system using their preferred methodologies. The data are used for benchmarking activities and to define capabilities and uncertainties of all the various methods. The combination of data filtering, metrics (performance ratio or power based), and statistical modeling methods are benchmarked in terms of (i) their deviation from the average value and (ii) their uncertainty, standard error, and confidence intervals. It was observed that careful data filtering is an essential foundation for reliable performance loss rate calculations. Furthermore, the selection of the calculation steps filter/metric/statistical method is highly dependent on one another, and the steps should not be assessed individually.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Multi-fidelity stochastic collocation method for computation of statistical moments

We present an efficient numerical algorithm to approximate the statistical moments of stochastic problems, in the presence of models with different fidelities. The method extends the multi-fidelity approximation method developed in . By combining the efficiency of low-fidelity models and the accuracy of high-fidelity models, our method exhibits fast convergence with a limited number of high-fidelity simulations. We establish an error bound of the method and present several numerical examples to demonstrate the efficiency and applicability of the multi-fidelity algorithm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2007

Bayesian Analysis of the Cosmic Microwave Background

There is a wealth of cosmological information encoded in the spatial power spectrum of temperature anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background! Experiments designed to map the microwave sky are returning a flood of data (time streams of instrument response as a beam is swept over the sky) at several different frequencies (from 30 to 900 GHz), all with different resolutions and noise properties. The resulting analysis challenge is to estimate, and quantify our uncertainty in, the spatial power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background given the complexities of "missing data", foreground emission, and complicated instrumental noise. Bayesian formulation of this problem allows consistent treatment of many complexities including complicated instrumental noise and foregrounds, and can be numerically implemented with Gibbs sampling. Gibbs sampling has now been validated as an efficient, statistically exact, and practically useful method for low-resolution (as demonstrated on WMAP 1 and 3 year temperature and polarization data). Continuing development for Planck - the goal is to exploit the unique capabilities of Gibbs sampling to directly propagate uncertainties in both foreground and instrument models to total uncertainty in cosmological parameters.

methods - statistical↗

DOE OSTI2016

Prediction on Underestimation of Statistical Uncertainty in Monte Carlo Eigenvalue Calculation for Two-dimensional Heterogeneous Color Set Geometry

In a Monte Carlo calculation, statistical uncertainty is inevitably included in the result. The statistical uncertainty is commonly estimated by the central limit theorem without considering correlation among generations. The statistical uncertainty is usually expected to decrease at the inverse square root of the number of neutron histories. However, in a Monte Carlo eigenvalue calculation in a large geometry whose dominance ratio is close to unity, the central limit theorem would not be valid and thus the statistical uncertainty of fission source distribution can be significantly underestimated when inter-cycle correlation is not appropriately taken into account. The true statistical uncertainty can be calculated by statistical processing of the results obtained by multiple Monte Carlo runs using different initial random seeds, but this approach has a drawback of large calculation cost. Therefore, prediction of true statistical uncertainty by alternate approach is desirable. One of the solutions for this issue is an evaluation method of statistical uncertainty based on the eigenfunction expansion and the Autoregressive model (AR model). In this method, the true statistical uncertainty is theoretically derived by applying the AR model to behavior of expansion coefficients of eigenfunction in fission source distribution during cycles. Underestimation ratio of statistical uncertainty of fission source distribution can be predicted by this method. Note that the underestimation ratio of statistical uncertainty is defined by the ratio of estimated error by a Monte Carlo calculation to the true statistical error. In the previous study, the proposed method was verified in a simple condition such as one energy group, one dimensional homogeneous slab geometry. Contributions of this summary are as follows. Firstly, expression of the noise term that is appeared in the AR model is theoretically derived. Secondly, prediction on underestimation ratio of statistical uncertainty is carried out in a more general case, i.e., flux of each fuel cell in 2 x 2 heterogeneous assembly geometry taken from the C5G7 benchmark problem. Through the present study, applicability of the theoretical prediction for underestimation of statistical uncertainty in practical problems will be verified. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗