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At least 919 records · Page 51

Large Contribution of Meteorological Factors to Inter-Decadal Changes in Regional Aerosol Optical Depth

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) has become a crucial metric for assessing global climate change. Although global and regional AOD trends have been studied extensively, it remains unclear what factors are driving the inter-decadal variations in regional AOD and how to quantify the relative contribution of each dominant factor. This study used a long-term (1980–2016) aerosol dataset from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, along with two satellite-based AOD datasets (MODIS/Terra and MISR) from 2001 to 2016, to investigate the long-term trends in global and regional aerosol loading. Statistical models based on emission factors and meteorological parameters were developed to identify the main factors driving the inter-decadal changes of regional AOD and to quantify their contribution. Evaluation of the MERRA-2 AOD with the ground-based measurements of AERONET indicated significant spatial agreement on the global scale (r= 0.85, root-mean-square error = 0.12, mean fractional error = 38.7 %, fractional gross error = 9.86 % and index of agreement = 0.94). However, when AOD observations from the China Aerosol Remote Sensing Network (CARSNET) were employed for independent verification, the results showed that MERRA-2 AODs generally underestimated CARSNET AODs in China (relative mean bias = 0.72 and fractional gross error =−34.3 %). In general, MERRA-2 was able to quantitatively reproduce the annual and seasonal AOD trends on both regional and global scales, as observed by MODIS/Terra, although some differences were found when compared to MISR. Over the 37-year period in this study, significant decreasing trends were observed over Europe and the eastern United States. In contrast, eastern China and southern Asia showed AOD increases, but the increasing trend of the former reversed sharply in the most recent decade. The statistical analyses suggested that the meteorological parameters explained a larger proportion of the AOD variability (20.4 %–72.8 %) over almost all regions of interest (ROIs) during 1980–2014 when compared with emission factors (0 %–56 %). Further analysis also showed that SO2 was the dominant emission factor, explaining 12.7 %–32.6 % of the variation in AOD over anthropogenic-aerosol-dominant regions, while black carbon or organic carbon was the leading factor over the biomass-burning-dominant (BBD) regions, contributing 24.0 %–27.7 % of the variation. Additionally, wind speed was found to be the leading meteorological parameter, explaining 11.8 %–30.3 % of the variance over the mineral-dust-dominant regions, while ambient humidity (including soil moisture and relative humidity) was the top meteorological parameter over the BBD regions, accounting for 11.7 %–35.5 % of the variation. The results of this study indicate that the variation in meteorological parameters is a key factor in determining the inter-decadal change in regional AOD.

Huizheng Che↗

Mass Balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet 1992–2016: Reconciling Results from GRACE Gravimetry With ICESat, ERS1/2 and Envisat Altimetry

GRACE and ICESat Antarctic mass-balance differences are resolved utilizing their dependencies on corrections for changes in mass and volume of the same underlying mantle material forced by ice-loading changes. Modeled gravimetry corrections are 5.22 times altimetry corrections over East Antarctica (EA) and 4.51 times over West Antarctica (WA), with inferred mantle densities 4.75 and 4.11 g/cu. cm. Derived sensitivities (Sg, Sa) to bedrock motion enable calculation of motion (δB0) needed to equalize GRACE and ICESat mass changes during 2003–08. For EA, δB0 is −2.2 mm/a subsidence with mass matching at 150 Gt/a, inland WA is −3.5 mm/a at 66 Gt/a, and coastal WA is only −0.35 mm/a at −95 Gt/a. WA subsidence is attributed to low mantle viscosity with faster responses to post-LGM deglaciation and to ice growth during Holocene grounding-line readvance. EA subsidence is attributed to Holocene dynamic thickening. With Antarctic Peninsula loss of −26 Gt/a, the Antarctic total gain is 95 ± 25 Gt/a during 2003–08, compared to 144 ± 61 Gt/a from ERS1/2 during 1992–2001. Beginning in 2009, large increases in coastal WA dynamic losses overcame long-term EA and inland WA gains bringing Antarctica close to balance at −12 ± 64 Gt/a by 2012–16.

Antarctic glaciology↗

MC2-3 / DIF3D Analysis for the ZPPR-15 Doppler and Sodium Void Worth Measurements

This manuscript covers validation efforts for our deterministic codes at Argonne National Laboratory. The experimental results come from the ZPPR-15 work in 1985-1986 which was focused on the accuracy of physics data for the integral fast reactor concept. Results for six loadings are studied in this document and focus on Doppler sample worths and sodium void worths. The ZPPR-15 loadings are modeled using the MC2-3/DIF3D codes developed and maintained at ANL and the MCNP code from LANL. The deterministic models are generated by processing the as-built geometry information, i.e. MCNP input, and generating MC2-3 cross section generation instructions and a drawer homogenized equivalence problem. The Doppler reactivity worth measurements are small heated samples which insert very small amounts of reactivity into the system (< 2 pcm). The results generated by the MC2-3/DIF3D codes were excellent for ZPPR-15A and ZPPR-15B and good for ZPPR-15D, compared to the MCNP solutions. In all cases, notable improvements were made over the analysis techniques applied to the same problems in 1987. The sodium void worths from MC2-3/DIF3D were quite good at 37.5 pcm while MCNP result was 33 pcm and the measured result was 31.5 pcm. Copyright © (2015) by the American Nuclear Society All rights reserved.

Smith, Micheal A.↗

Aeroelastic oscillations of a cantilever with structural nonlinearities: theory and numerical simulation.

Our study details the derivation of the nonlinear equations of motion for the axial, biaxial bending and torsional vibrations of an aeroelastic cantilever undergoing rigid body (pitch) rotation at the base. The primary attenstion is focussed on the geometric nonlinearities of the system, whereby the aeroelastic load is modeled by the theory of linear quasisteady aerodynamics. This modelling effort is intended to mimic the wind-tunnel experimental setup at the Royal Military College of Canada. While the derivation closely follows the work of Hodges and Dowell [1] for rotor blades, this aeroelastic system contains new inertial terms which stem from the fundamentally different kinematics than those exhibited by helicopter or wind turbine blades. Using the Hamilton’s principle, a set of coupled nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) and an ordinary differential equation (ODE) are derived which describes the coupled axial-bending-bending-torsion-pitch motion of the aeroelastic cantilever with the pitch rotation. The finite dimensional approximation of the coupled system of PDEs are obtained using the Galerkin projection, leading to a coupled system of ODEs. Subsequently, these nonlinear ODEs are solved numerically using the built-in MATLAB implicit ODE solver and the associated numerical results are compared with those obtained using Houbolt’s method. It is demonstrated that the system undergoes coalescence flutter, leading to a limit cycle oscillation (LCO) due to coupling between the rigid body pitching mode and teh flexible mode arising from the flapwise bending motion.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NONLINEAR SOIL-STRUCTURE INTERACTION ANALYSIS USING CO-SIMULATION

Nonlinear soil-structure interaction (NLSSI) analysis methods are currently being developed at Idaho National Laboratory. Appendix B in ASCE (2016) includes a framework for performing NLSSI analysis. For NLSSI analysis to be widely implemented in industry, it is important to demonstrate that accurate response in dynamically loaded, nonlinear models can be achieved in an efficient manner. Both explicit and implicit dynamic solvers are applicable to NLSSI. When considering cpu time, an explicit dynamic solver is often desirable for large models with no features (e.g. small elements, stiff elements, or stiffness damping) that can drive the time step unreasonably small. An implicit dynamic solver may be desirable in models not well suited for an explicit solver. A further option is co-simulation where a portion of the model is run with an explicit dynamic solver and the rest of the model is run with an implicit dynamic solver. This study explores NLSSI examples where co-simulation could be the most cpu efficient modelling strategy.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Empirical Assessment of the Appliance-Level Load Shape and Demand Response Potential in India

Over the next 15 years, electricity demand from the key residential and commercial appliances is projected to be nearly 300 GW or ~65% of India’s total peak demand. The objective of this study is to characterize appliance level demand and temporal variation, and identify the overall DR potential in India. We use Bangalore Electricity Supply Company territory (peak load of 3,505 MW in 2016) as a case study, using actual one-minute resolution load data for 2,979 distribution feeders and a detailed load survey. Our results show that agricultural pumping and space cooling (residential, commercial, and industrial) are the main contributors to the peak demand – with shares of 23-27% and 14-23%, respectively. Both sectors have about 1,000 MW of DR potential – agricultural pumps offering load shifting service while space cooling offering shimmy service that is capable of dynamically adjusting to react to short-run ramps and grid disturbances. Residential electric water heaters contribute nearly 18% of the winter morning peak demand and can also offer about 500 MW in shimmy service. Overall, we find that shifting and shimmy services offer 1,199 MW and 1,511 MW total DR potential, respectively.

demand response↗

From RNNs to Foundation Models: An Empirical Study on Commercial Building Energy Consumption

Accurate short-term energy consumption forecasting for commercial buildings is crucial for smart grid operations. While smart meters and deep learning models enable forecasting using past data from multiple buildings, data heterogeneity from diverse buildings can reduce model performance. The impact of increasing dataset heterogeneity in time series forecasting, while keeping size and model constant, is understudied. We tackle this issue using the ComStock dataset, which provides synthetic energy consumption data for U.S. commercial buildings. Two curated subsets, identical in size and region but differing in building type diversity, are used to assess the performance of various time series forecasting models, including finetuned open-source foundation models (FMs). The results show that dataset heterogeneity and model architecture have a greater impact on post-training forecasting performance than the parameter count. Moreover, despite the higher computational cost, finetuned FMs demonstrate competitive performance compared to base models trained from scratch.

commercial buildings↗

A Damage Model for the Simulation of Delamination in Advanced Composites under Variable-Mode Loading

A thermodynamically consistent damage model is proposed for the simulation of progressive delamination in composite materials under variable-mode ratio. The model is formulated in the context of Damage Mechanics. A novel constitutive equation is developed to model the initiation and propagation of delamination. A delamination initiation criterion is proposed to assure that the formulation can account for changes in the loading mode in a thermodynamically consistent way. The formulation accounts for crack closure effects to avoid interfacial penetration of two adjacent layers after complete decohesion. The model is implemented in a finite element formulation, and the numerical predictions are compared with experimental results obtained in both composite test specimens and structural components.

Turon, A.↗

Physics based model for online fault detection in autonomous cryogenic loading system

We report the progress in the development of the chilldown model for a rapid cryogenic loading system developed at NASA-Kennedy Space Center. The nontrivial characteristic feature of the analyzed chilldown regime is its active control by dump valves. The two-phase flow model of the chilldown is approximated as one-dimensional homogeneous fluid flow with no slip condition for the interphase velocity. The model is built using commercial SINDA/FLUINT software. The results of numerical predictions are in good agreement with the experimental time traces. The obtained results pave the way to the application of the SINDA/FLUINT model as a verification tool for the design and algorithm development required for autonomous loading operation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Skylab experience with Apollo docking/latching loads.

Description of the four-year development of Skylab analytical programs, mathematical model complexity, and vibration and load analyses associated with the docking/latching maneuver. Examples are shown where coarse models produced loads in excess of structural capability. However, subsequent model refinement lowered the loads to the point where redesign was not required. A summary of experience gained over a four-year period is presented in the conclusions.

Heath, R. A.↗

A new computational model for the prediction of mass loading phenomena for solar wind interactions with cometary and planetary ionospheres

The modified gasdynamic convected-magnetic-field MHD model developed by Spreiter and Stahara (1980) to simulate the supersonic flow of the solar wind past planetary magnetoionospheres is extended to account for cases (such as Venus and comets) in which significant numbers of neutral atmospheric atoms become ionized in the surrounding flow and add to its momentum, energy, and mass. The mathematical model and the solution procedures for the nose and tail regions are explained; typical computational grids are shown; and numerical results for a comet and for the Venus ionosheath and bow shock are presented graphically. It is found that the bow shock weakens and moves further upstream of the obstacle as mass loading is increased and the flow upstream of the bow shock becomes more compressed.

Stahara, Stephen S.↗

Modeling Workloads of a Linear Electromagnetic Code for Load Balancing Matrix Assembly

This report presents our work to model the workloads of a linear electromagnetic application based on the method of moments in the frequency domain to effectively load balance the matrix assembly. This application is particularly challenging to load balance due to its lack of persistent iterative behavior, its operation under tight memory constraint (where the matrix may fill 80% of memory on each node), and the algorithmic complexity of the computational method. This report describes the first step in our work to apply an inspector-executor approach for load balancing workloads where key parameters are exposed during the inspector phase and a pre-trained model is applied to predict relative task weights for the load balancer.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A reliability-based cost effective fail-safe design procedure

The authors have developed a methodology for cost-effective fatigue design of structures subject to random fatigue loading. A stochastic model for fatigue crack propagation under random loading has been discussed. Fracture mechanics is then used to estimate the parameters of the model and the residual strength of structures with cracks. The stochastic model and residual strength variations have been used to develop procedures for estimating the probability of failure and its changes with inspection frequency. This information on reliability is then used to construct an objective function in terms of either a total weight function or cost function. A procedure for selecting the design variables, subject to constraints, by optimizing the objective function has been illustrated by examples. In particular, optimum design of stiffened panel has been discussed.

Hanagud, S.↗