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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 919 records · Page 51
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1996

Common View Time Transfer Using Worldwide GPS and DMA Monitor Stations

Analysis of the on-orbit Navstar clocks and the Global Positioning System (GPS) monitor station reference clocks is performed by the Naval Research Laboratory using both broadcast and postprocessed precise ephemerides. The precise ephemerides are produced by the Defense Mapping Agency (DMA) for each of the GPS space vehicles from pseudo-range measurements collected at five GPS and at five DMA monitor stations spaced around the world. Recently, DMA established an additional site co-located with the US Naval Observatory precise time site. The time reference for the new DMA site is the DoD Master Clock. Now, for the first time, it is possible to transfer time every 15 minutes via common view from the DoD Master Clock to the 11 GPS and DMA monitor stations. The estimated precision of a single common-view time transfer measurement taken over a 15-minute interval was between 1.4 and 2.7 nanoseconds. Using the measurements from all Navstar space vehicles in common view during the 15-minute interval, typically 3-7 space vehicles, improved the estimate of the precision to between 0.65 and 1.13 nanoseconds. The mean phase error obtained from closure of the time transfer around the world using the 11 monitor stations and the 25 space vehicle clocks over a period of 4 months had a magnitude of 31 picoseconds. Analysis of the low noise time transfer from the DoD Master Clock to each of the monitor stations yields not only the bias in the time of the reference clock, but also focuses attention on structure in the behaviour of the reference clock not previously seen. Furthermore, the time transfer provides a a uniformly sampled database of 15-minute measurements that make possible, for the first time, the direct and exhaustive computation of the frequency stability of the monitor station reference clocks. To lend perspective to the analysis, a summary is given of the discontinuities in phase and frequency that occurred in the reference clock at the Master Control Station during the period covered by the analysis.

Reid, Wilson G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Search for new physics in top quark production with additional leptons in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = $ 13 TeV using effective field theory

Events containing one or more top quarks produced with additional prompt leptons are used to search for new physics within the framework of an effective field theory (EFT). The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 41.5 fb$^{−1}$ of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV at the LHC, collected by the CMS experiment in 2017. The selected events are required to have either two leptons with the same charge or more than two leptons; jets, including identified bottom quark jets, are also required, and the selected events are divided into categories based on the multiplicities of these objects. Sixteen dimension-six operators that can affect processes involving top quarks produced with additional charged leptons are considered in this analysis. Constructed to target EFT effects directly, the analysis applies a novel approach in which the observed yields are parameterized in terms of the Wilson coefficients (WCs) of the EFT operators. A simultaneous fit of the 16 WCs to the data is performed and two standard deviation confidence intervals for the WCs are extracted; the standard model expectations for the WC values are within these intervals for all of the WCs probed.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1975

The energy spectrum of 10-50 BeV/nuc cosmic rays

We have obtained measurements of the energy spectra of cosmic ray nuclei with charge Z equals 5-14 in the 10-50 BeV/nuc energy interval from a gas Cerenkov detector flown aboard a high altitude balloon at Sioux Falls, South Dakota in September, 1974. The gas Cerenkov detector consists of a pressurized light diffusion chamber viewed by two separate banks of photomultiplier tubes. An analysis of the two signals permits a very effective rejection of background events as well as an understanding of the sources of broadening to be removed in the extraction of kinetic energy spectra from the gas Cerenkov detector pulse height distributions. The ratio of secondary to primary nuclei display a decrease with increasing energy as reported by other investigators.

Lezniak, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1981

The isotopic composition of solar flare accelerated magnesium

Measurements of the abundances of three isotopes of magnesium in solar energetic particles are reported. Data were obtained from the Heavy Isotope Spectrometer Telescope on board the ISEE 3 spacecraft during a large solar particle event following the 2B solar flare of September 23, 1978. A two-dimensional maximum likelihood analysis of the mass determinations for each event, which were taken with a resolution of 0.23 amu, indicates a Mg-25/Mg-24 ratio of 0.14 (+0.05, -0.02) and a Mg-26/Mg-24 ratio of 0.15 (+0.04, -0.03) in the energy interval 12-36 MeV/n. The results are consistent with terrestrial magnesium isotope abundances.

Mewaldt, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1981

The effects of transmitter/receiver clock time base instability on coherent communication system performance

The purpose of this paper is to present a model and associated analysis of the deleterious effects which both transmitter and receiver data clock time-base instability have on bit error probability. The types of time-base instability modeled and analyzed include bit jitter (epoch jitter), bit jitter rate (time interval jitter) and data asymmetry. The bit error probability is determined as a function of the statistical characteristics of the time-base instability, the data transition density, the signal-to-noise ratio in the bit rate bandwidth and the mechanizations of both the data bit detector and bit synchronizer. Numerical results are provided.

Chie, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Progress on the Cluster Mission

Prof M. G. Kivelson and Dr. K. K. Khurana (UCLA (University of California, Los Angeles)) are co-investigators on the Cluster Magnetometer Consortium (CMC) that provided the fluxgate magnetometers and associated mission support for the Cluster Mission. The CMC designated UCLA as the site with primary responsibility for the inter-calibration of data from the four spacecraft and the production of fully corrected data critical to achieving the mission objectives. UCLA will also participate in the analysis and interpretation of the data. The UCLA group here reports its excellent progress in developing fully intra-calibrated data for large portions of the mission and an excellent start in developing inter-calibrated data for selected time intervals, especially extended intervals in August, 2001 on which a workshop held at ESTEC in March, 2002 focused. In addition, some scientific investigations were initiated and results were reported at meetings.

Kivelson, Margaret↗
NASA NTRS2009

Scientific Benefits of Space Science Models Archiving at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) hosts a set of state-of-the-art space science models ranging from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. CCMC provides a web-based Run-on-Request system, by which the interested scientist can request simulations for a broad range of space science problems. To allow the models to be driven by data relevant to particular events CCMC developed a tool that automatically downloads data from data archives and transform them to required formats. CCMC also provides a tailored web-based visualization interface for the model output, as well as the capability to download the simulation output in portable format. CCMC offers a variety of visualization and output analysis tools to aid scientists in interpretation of simulation results. During eight years since the Run-on-request system became available the CCMC archived the results of almost 3000 runs that are covering significant space weather events and time intervals of interest identified by the community. The simulation results archived at CCMC also include a library of general purpose runs with modeled conditions that are used for education and research. Archiving results of simulations performed in support of several Modeling Challenges helps to evaluate the progress in space weather modeling over time. We will highlight the scientific benefits of CCMC space science model archive and discuss plans for further development of advanced methods to interact with simulation results.

Kuznetsova, Maria M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hazards of Lunar Surface Exploration: Determining the Immunogenicity/Allergenicity of Lunar Dust

There are multiple Apollo program reports of lunar dust (LD) exposure leading to significant upper respiratory symptoms in select crewmembers. Possible mechanisms include particulate irritation, oxidization and release of noxious gas, or legitimate adaptive immune-mediated response. Although sterile non-protein matter would not be expected to be an allergen, one Apollo flight surgeon reported increasing symptoms upon repeated exposure, with associated eosinophilia indicative of allergy (*Acta Astronautica. 2008 63 (7–10): 980–987). Many ISS crews display a pattern of persistent immune system dysregulation and latent virus reactivation (NPJ Microgravity. 2015 Sep 3; 1:15013; NPJ Microgravity. 2017 Apr 12; 3:11). Some ISS crews manifest atypical respiratory and/or dermatitis symptoms which could have an allergic pathogenesis (J Allergy Clin. Immunol. Pract. 2016 Jul-Aug; 4(4):759-762.e8). It is logical to anticipate crew immune dysregulation would worsen during prolonged deep space missions. Planetary surface hazards will only complicate crew health risks. This study hypothesizes that LD exposure can alter susceptible individuals’ immune responses such that repeated exposure will elicit an IgE mediated allergic response either to the LD itself or concomitant antigen exposure during spaceflight. This will adversely increase clinical and operational impacts for long-duration lunar astronauts and affect countermeasure requirements for surface vehicles. Specific aims for this study are (1) Does in vitro LD exposure result in increased histamine from human peripheral blood basophils? (2) Can LD impact the capacity of CD4+ helper and/or CD19+ B-cell mediated IgE production? To address these questions, a set of in-vitro cell culture experiments will be employed (short and long term) using human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) and basophils from both atopic and non-atopic individuals, as well as established human basophil and mast cell lines. Cells will be co-cultured with cellular mitogens, common recall antigens (tetanus, Der p1), nickel (as a possible allergenic component of LD), with or without graded amounts of LD, to study whether LD exposure for varying time intervals will alter the generation of selective immune responses associated with clinical allergic reactions. Measured outputs include supernatant-derived IgE, tryptase, histamine and selected cytokine levels. Cellular activation will be monitored by assessing activation markers via flow cytometry. EM/x-ray analysis will be used to determine cellular interactions with dust particles. The minimal amount of LD (Apollo 14 dust) and controls/simulants have been requested. This study, originally planned as an FY20/21 activity, was delayed due to the COVID pandemic. It is now scheduled to be performed during FY22.

Brian Crucian↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hazards of Lunar Surface Exploration: Determining the Immunogenicity/Allergenicity of Lunar Dust

Although infrequent, there have been Apollo program reports of lunar dust (LD) exposure leading to notable upper respiratory symptoms in select crewmembers. Possible mechanisms include particulate irritation, oxidization and release of noxious gas, or legitimate adaptive immune-mediated response. Although sterile non-protein matter would not be expected to be an allergen, one Apollo flight surgeon reported increasing symptoms upon repeated exposure with associated eosinophilia, indicative of allergy (*Acta Astronautica. 2008 63 (7–10): 980–987). Many ISS crews display a pattern of persistent immune system dysregulation and latent virus reactivation (NPJ Microgravity. 2015 Sep 3; 1:15013; NPJ Microgravity. 2017 Apr 12; 3:11). Some ISS crews manifest atypical respiratory and/or dermatitis symptoms which could have an allergic pathogenesis (J Allergy Clin. Immunol. Pract. 2016 Jul-Aug; 4(4):759-762.e8). It is logical to anticipate crew immune dysregulation would worsen during prolonged deep space missions. Planetary surface hazards will only complicate crew health risks. This study with investigate if LD exposure will elicit an IgE mediated allergic response either to the LD itself or concomitant antigen exposure during spaceflight. Allergic reactivity could adversely increase clinical and operational impacts for long-duration lunar astronauts and affect countermeasure requirements for surface vehicles. Specific aims for this study are to answer two questions: (1) Does in vitro LD exposure result in increased histamine from human peripheral blood basophils? (2) Can LD impact the capacity of CD4+ T helper and/or CD19+ B-cell mediated IgE production? To address these questions, after the proposal and selection by NASA, our laboratory has separately requested and been approved for receipt of actual LD samples from the Apollo 16 mission. These samples will be used during the study to complete the proposed set of in vitro cell culture experiments (short and long term), using human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) and basophils from both atopic and non-atopic individuals. Cells will be co-cultured with cellular mitogens, common recall antigens (Der p1), fine ground silica quartz (as a possible allergenic component of LD), or LD, to study whether LD exposure for varying time intervals will alter the generation of selective immune responses associated with clinical allergic reactions. Measured outputs include supernatant-derived IgE, tryptase, histamine, and selected cytokine levels. Cellular activation will be monitored by assessing activation markers via flow cytometry. EM/x-ray analysis will be used to determine cellular interactions with dust particles. A series of validation experiments was initiated in FY22 once the delivery of LD was received. Based on initial experimental findings, we are optimizing the culture conditions, LD concentrations, and refining our other protocol stimuli.

Audrie A. Colorado↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hazards of Lunar Surface Exploration: Determining the Immunogenicity/Allergenicity of Lunar Dust

Although infrequent, there have been Apollo program reports of lunar dust (LD) exposure leading to notable upper respiratory symptoms in select crewmembers. Possible mechanisms include particulate irritation, oxidization and release of noxious gas, or legitimate adaptive immune-mediated response. Although sterile non-protein matter would not be expected to be an allergen, one Apollo flight surgeon reported increasing symptoms upon repeated exposure with associated eosinophilia, indicative of allergy (*Acta Astronautica. 2008 63 (7–10): 980–987). Many ISS crews display a pattern of persistent immune system dysregulation and latent virus reactivation (NPJ Microgravity. 2015 Sep 3; 1:15013; NPJ Microgravity. 2017 Apr 12; 3:11). Some ISS crews manifest atypical respiratory and/or dermatitis symptoms which could have an allergic pathogenesis (J Allergy Clin. Immunol. Pract. 2016 Jul-Aug; 4(4):759-762.e8). It is logical to anticipate crew immune dysregulation would worsen during prolonged deep space missions. Planetary surface hazards will only complicate crew health risks. This study with investigate if LD exposure will elicit an IgE mediated allergic response either to the LD itself or concomitant antigen exposure during spaceflight. Allergic reactivity could adversely increase clinical and operational impacts for long-duration lunar astronauts and affect countermeasure requirements for surface vehicles. Specific aims for this study are to answer two questions: (1) Does in vitro LD exposure result in increased histamine from human peripheral blood basophils? (2) Can LD impact the capacity of CD4+ T helper and/or CD19+ B-cell mediated IgE production? To address these questions, after the proposal and selection by NASA, our laboratory has separately requested and been approved for receipt of actual LD samples from the Apollo 16 mission. These samples will be used during the study to complete the proposed set of in vitro cell culture experiments (short and long term), using human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) and basophils from both atopic and non-atopic individuals. Cells will be co-cultured with cellular mitogens, common recall antigens (Der p1), fine ground silica quartz (as a possible allergenic component of LD), or LD, to study whether LD exposure for varying time intervals will alter the generation of selective immune responses associated with clinical allergic reactions. Measured outputs include supernatant-derived IgE, tryptase, histamine, and selected cytokine levels. Cellular activation will be monitored by assessing activation markers via flow cytometry. EM/x-ray analysis will be used to determine cellular interactions with dust particles. A series of validation experiments was initiated in FY22 once the delivery of LD was received. Based on initial experimental findings, we are optimizing the culture conditions, LD concentrations, and refining our other protocol stimuli.

immunology↗
NASA NTRS1995

An improved spectral calibration requirement for AVIRIS

The Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) measures spectra from 400 to 2500 nm through 224 contiguous spectral channels. These spectra are used to identify and determine the abundances of constituents of the earth's surface and atmosphere through the analysis of spectral molecular absorptions and scattering properties of materials. Spectral calibration of the AVIRIS is required to pursue these determinations, which are based on these fundamental spectral characteristics. The spectral calibration of AVIRIS consists of a description of the spectral response function for each of the 224 spectral channels. The spectral response function of AVIRIS channels was measured in the laboratory and shown to be Gaussian in shape. A subset of nine AVIRIS spectral channels is shown with channel centers at 10 nm intervals and channel shapes of Gaussian form with 10 nm full width and half maximum (FWHM). For AVIRIS the spectral calibration is described by the spectral center and FWHM of a Gaussian function for each channel. Uncertainty in the determination of the spectral center and FWHM for each channel are also reported. This paper presents results from an investigation of the sensitivity of AVIRIS-measured upwelling radiance to errors in spectral calibration. Based on this sensitivity analysis in conjunction with earlier work, an improved spectral calibration requirement for AVIRIS is proposed.

Green, Robert O.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact Real World System Validation

Introduction NASA has developed a new evidence-based data-driven probabilistic risk assessment and tradespace analysis tool as a successor to the Integrated Medical Model. This updated decision support tool is known as IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces). IMPACT estimates the frequency and consequences of medical conditions that might arise during exploration missions. A validation analysis of IMPACT was performed with respect to a set of International Space Station (ISS) and Shuttle Transportation System (STS) real world system (RWS) referent data due to the limited referent data available from exploration missions. Methods Observed mission and crew characteristics from STS and ISS missions were used as model inputs within MEDPRAT (Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool). For each mission, two hundred thousand simulations were generated. For each mission, model outputs included occurrence counts for each condition, total medical events (TME), and the probability of loss of crew life (LOCL). These simulated model outputs were compared to the RWS referent data. Results The predicted number of total medical events exceeded the total RWS medical events for ISS missions and combined ISS and STS missions and fell within the 90% confidence interval for STS missions. For the 32 ISS missions simulated by IMPACT, the number of total medical events was overpredicted for 19 missions and fell within the 90% confidence interval for 13 missions. For the 21 STS missions, the total number of medical events was overpredicted for 3 missions, fell within the 90% confidence interval for 16 missions, and was underpredicted for 2 missions. Combined, 29 missions were in range, 22 were overpredicted, and 2 were underpredicted. The predicted LOCL probability for the 32 ISS missions, the 21 STS missions, and the combined ISS and STS missions was consistent with the zero LOCL events observed in the RWS referent data. The validation analysis included a comparison of the number of medical events predicted by IMPACT and the number of medical events observed in the RWS data on a condition-by-condition basis. For ISS missions, 50 conditions were in range, 52 conditions were statistically underpowered (not enough observed sample to draw any conclusions on precision), 8 conditions were overpredicted, and 9 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 14% (17/119) of conditions were out of range for STS missions, 40 conditions were in range, 59 conditions were statistically underpowered, 10 conditions were overpredicted, and 10 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 17% (20/119) of conditions were out of range. For combined ISS and STS missions, 11 conditions were overpredicted, and 11 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 18% (22/119) of conditions were out of range. For combined ISS and STS missions, 49 conditions were in range, 46 conditions were statistically underpowered, 18 conditions were overpredicted, and 8 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, 21% (26/121) of conditions were out of range. Conclusion The results of this validation analysis should not be interpreted as a pass/fail test of the validity of IMPACT. Instead, this validation analysis should be used to assess some of the IMPACT outcomes in terms of consistencies and inconsistencies with the ISS and STS RWS referent data.

L. Boley↗
NASA NTRS1972

Analysis and interpretation of lunar laser altimetry.

About 4.5 revolutions of laser altimetry were obtained by Apollo 15. This altimetry indicates a 2-km displacement of the center of mass from the center of figure toward the earthside. The terrae are quite rough, with frequent changes of 1 km or more in successive altitudes at about 33-km intervals. The mean altitude of terrae above maria is about 3 km with respect to the center of mass, indicating a thickness of about 24 km for a high-alumina crust. The maria are extremely level, with elevations varying not more than plus or minus 150 m about the mean over some stretches of 200 to 600 km. However, different maria have considerably different mean elevations. The largest unanticipated feature found is a 1400 km wide depression centered at about 180 deg longitude, and 2 km deep with respect to a 1737-km sphere (about 6 km deep with respect to the surrounding terrae). This basin has the appearance of typical terrae, although there are indications of a ring structure of about 600-km radius in the Orbiter photography. Altitudes across circum-Orientale features suggest that Mare Orientale is also a deep basin. The data appear to corroborate a model of early large-scale differentiation of a crust, followed a considerable time later by short intense episodes of mare filling with low viscosity lavas.

Kaula, W. M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A machine learning degradation model for electrochemical capacitors operated at high temperature

Electrochemical capacitors (ECs) have only recently been considered as an alternative power source for telemetry sensors of drilling equipment for geothermal or oil and gas exploration. The lifecycle analysis and modelling of ECs is underrepresented in literature in comparison to other storage devices e.g. Li-ion batteries. This paper investigates the degradation of ECs when cycled outside the manufacturer-specified operating temperature envelope and proposes a machine learning-based approach for modelling the degradation. Experimental results show that end of life, defined as a 30% decrease in capacitance, occurs at 1,000 cycles when the environmental temperature exceeds the maximum operating temperature by 30%. The life-cycle test data is then used as an input to a Gaussian process regression (GPR) algorithm to predict the capacitance fade trend. The GPR is validated on a total of nine commercial cells from two different manufacturers, achieving an average root mean squared percent error of less than 2% and a mean calibration score of 93% when referenced to a 95% confidence interval. The model can be utilized to determine the EC degradation rate at a range of operating temperature values.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Field evaluation of zone temperature response to control actions in cooling systems of small and medium-sized office buildings

The response of zone temperature to control actions in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, known as zone temperature response, has been a central focus of building control research owing to its crucial role in determining control performance. However, existing studies often overlook the representativeness of the buildings being studied, resulting in unclear generalizations. In addition, those studies tend to focus on a single aspect of the response. Furthermore, this paper provides the first comprehensive characterization of zone temperature response applicable to a clearly defined building sector—small and medium-sized office (SMO) buildings (<5000 m 2 ) in the US. Specifically, two representative SMO buildings, selected based on the US Department of Energy’s commercial prototype buildings, were studied. Field tests were conducted over a 2-month period during summer, and the collected data were analyzed with two key metrics—delay time and nonlinearity index—to quantify zone temperature response, capturing both short- and long-term patterns. Beyond this quantitative characterization, the analysis reveals that the HVAC system type, rather than factors like floor area or zone location, is the primary determinant of the zone temperature response. Drawing on the field test results, we recommend that building control strategies monitor zone temperatures at intervals shorter than 10 minutes, configure controls independently for VAV- and RTU-served zones, and implement nonlinear methods at the zone level—particularly for VAV zones—rather than across the entire building.

Building control↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of nuclear breakup as a function of hard-scattering kinematics using dijets measured by ATLAS in p+Pb collisions

This Letter analyzes the sensitivity of event geometry estimators to the initial-state kinematics of hard scattering in proton–lead collisions. This analysis uses dijets as a proxy for the parton–parton scattering configuration, correlating it with event geometry estimators, namely the energy deposited in the Zero-Degree Calorimeter and the transverse energy recorded in the Forward Calorimeter in the Pb-going direction. The analysis uses data recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider with a nucleon–nucleon center-of-mass energy of 8.16 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 56 nb − 1 . The jets are measured within the pseudorapidity interval −2.8 < η < 4.5, where positive η values correspond to the direction of the proton beam. Results are presented as a function of the Bjorken-x of the parton originating from the proton, xp . Both event geometry estimators are found to be dependent on xp , with the energy deposited in the Zero-Degree Calorimeter about six times less sensitive to xp compared with the transverse energy deposited in the Forward Calorimeter.

Aad, G↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atmospheric River Frequency-Category Characteristics Shape U.S. West Coast Runoff

Abstractrunoff response to atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the U.S. West Coast. We focused on runoff time series variations impacted by AR characteristics (e.g., category and frequency) and land preconditions during Northern Hemisphere cool seasons in the period of 1940–2023. Results show that high-category ARs significantly increase local runoff with higher hourly precipitation rates leading to a greater incremental rate and peak runoff. Extreme runoff increases greatly with the AR category with an increase rate up to 12.5 times stronger than non-extreme runoff. Besides the AR category, land preconditions such as soil moisture and snowpack also play crucial roles in modulating runoff response. We found that runoff induced by weak-category ARs is more sensitive to land preconditions than high-category ARs, with high peak runoff occurring when soil is nearly saturated. Additionally, more than 50% of high-peak-runoff events in snow-covered grid cells are associated with rain-on-snow events particularly for the events associated with weaker ARs. Regression analysis reveals that AR precipitation and land preconditions jointly influence runoff, emphasizing the importance of including soil moisture and snowpack levels in AR impact assessments. The study also highlights the intensified runoff response to back-to-back ARs with short intervals, which may become more frequent with climate warming, posing increased flood risks via facilitating wet soil conditions. Our findings have significant implications for AR risk predictions and the development of prediction models for AR-induced runoff.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying Uncertainties In Neutron-Alpha Scattering With Chiral Nucleon-Nucleon And Three-Nucleon Forces

We report that modern ab initio theory combined with high-quality nucleon-nucleon (NN) and three-nucleon (3N) interactions from chiral effective field theory (EFT) can provide a predictive description of low-energy light-nuclei reactions relevant for astrophysics and fusion-energy applications. However, the high cost of computations has so far impeded a complete analysis of the uncertainty budget of such calculations. Starting from NN potentials up to fifth order (N 4 LO) combined with leading-order 3N forces, we study how the order-by-order convergence of the chiral expansion and confidence intervals for the 3N contact and contact-plus-one-pion-exchange low-energy constants (c E and c D ) contribute to the overall uncertainty budget of many-body calculations of neutron- 4 He (n-α) elastic scattering. We compute structure and reaction observables for three-, four-, and five-nucleon systems within the ab initio frameworks of the no-core shell model and no-core shell model with continuum. Using a small set of design runs, we construct a Gaussian process model (GPM) that acts as a statistical emulator for the theory. With this, we gain insight into how uncertainties in the 3N low-energy constants propagate throughout the calculation and determine the Bayesian posterior distribution of these parameters with Markov-Chain Monte Carlo. We find rapidly converging n-α phase shifts with respect to the chiral order. With the adopted leading-order 3N force, calculations based on the NN interaction at N 4 LO of Entem, Machleidt, and Nosyk are unable to reproduce the experimental phase shifts in the 3/2 - channel within the estimated chiral truncation errors. Closer agreement with empirical data is found when using an older parametrization of the NN interaction at order N 3 LO, and the position and width of the P-wave resonances can be used to reduce the uncertainty of the 3N low-energy constants. The present results point to a lack of spin-orbit strength when the newer parametrization of the chiral NN force up to fifth order is combined with the leading-order 3N force. The inclusion of higher-order 3N-force terms may be required to recover the missing strength. GPMs can act as fast and accurate emulators of ab initio many-body calculations of low-energy scattering and reactions of light nuclei, opening the way to a robust quantification of theoretical uncertainties grounded in the description of the underlying chiral Hamiltonian.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗