Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “incentive”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 919 records · Page 51
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2022 Edition

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2022 edition of its Land-Based Wind Market Report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2021. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Despite ongoing supply chain challenges, wind energy in 2021 continued to see strong growth, technology improvements, and low prices in the U.S. Key highlights include: Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a strong pace in 2021, with the 13.4 GW of new additions representing a $\$20$ billion investment and 32% of all newly added U.S. generation capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 9% of the entire nation’s electricity supply. At least 247 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 77 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 19 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or solar PV. Wind project performance has increased over the decades: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was nearly 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2011, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2021, 89% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices averaged $\$800$–$\$950$/kW in 2021, a 5% to 10% increase from the year prior but substantially lower than in 2010. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2021 was $\$1,500$/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though relatively stable in recent years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. Wind energy prices are on the rise, but generally remain low, around $\$20$/MWh in the interior of the country with higher prices in the West and East. After topping out above $\$75$/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped—though supply-chain pressures have resulted in increased prices in recent years. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around $\$20$/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average above $\$30$/MWh. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind increased in 2021, averaging $\$16$/MWh in MISO, $\$19$/MWh in SPP, $\$23$/MWh in NYISO, $\$31$/MWh in ERCOT, $\$33$/MWh in PJM, $\$44$/MWh in ISO-NE, and $\$48$/MWh in CAISO. The average levelized cost of wind energy was $\$32$/MWh for plants built in 2021: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography. The national average stood at $\$32$/MWh in 2021—down substantially historically, though relatively stable in recent years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. The health and climate benefits of wind in 2021 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of over $\$90$/MWh-wind for plants built in 2021.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Breakdown of Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment Installation Costs

The plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) market is receiving help from the current political climate, incentives at the federal and state levels, excessive cost of petroleum fuel, growing focus on climate solutions, increasing investment and direction by automobile manufacturers and increased awareness through media reports and advertising. Increasingly, the transportation industry, in both the United States and many other countries, is aimed at electric motive energy where practical. Increased investment in research and development have led to increasing vehicle range and lower battery costs; both of which have been deterrents in the past. The increasing demand for PEVs (consisting of the battery electric vehicle [BEV] and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle [PHEV], is challenged by the need for charging infrastructure to support these vehicles. The BEV relies totally on the on-board battery to supply the motive energy while the PHEV utilizes its battery and an installed internal combustion engine (ICE). The maximum benefit is achieved by using the battery power as much as possible. This arrangement requires the use of battery charging equipment, known as electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (FD-CIC): Users’ Manual and Technical Documentation

The carbon intensities (CIs) of biofuels are determined with the life cycle analysis (LCA) technique, which accounts for the energy/material uses and emissions during the complete supply chain of biofuel including feedstock production and fuel conversion stages. Regulatory agencies such as California Air Resources Board (CARB) adopts LCA to calculate biofuel CIs. The Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program developed by CARB allows individual biofuel conversion facilities to submit their own biofuel CIs with their facility input data and incentivizes the reduction in the CI specific to that particular facility compared to a reference fuel’s CI (Liu et al 2020). Such an incentive program has driven innovations in biorefineries to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by linking their revenue directly to its CI score through LCFS credit trading. Besides the biofuel conversion stage, different farming practices for feedstock growth can result in significant CI variations for feedstocks, thus for biofuels. To provide evidence-based research findings, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (ARPA-E) has supported the Systems Assessment Center of the Energy Systems and Infrastructure Analysis Division at Argonne National Laboratory to examine CI variations of different farming practices to grow agricultural crops for biofuel production. Meanwhile, the ARPA-E has launched the Systems for Monitoring and Analytics for Renewable Transportation Fuels from Agricultural Resources and Management (SMARTFARM) program to develop technologies and data platforms that enable an accurate measurement of key farming parameters that can help robust accounting of the GHG benefits of sustainable, low-carbon agronomic practices at farm level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hierarchical Model-Free Transactive Control of Building Loads to Support Grid Services

Residential buildings consume 4.4 quads of electricity annually, approximately 37% of the total electricity consumption in the United States. This represents a vast resource that can be used for demand management and other ancillary services. This project aims to develop a robust, scalable hierarchical transactional control mechanism incorporating elements of model-free control (MFC) and game theory to harness buildings to provide ancillary services to the grid. This approach is being taken to address the challenges of incorporating traditional transactional control schemes into existing buildings. The challenges include small individual building sizes requiring aggregation of many buildings, unpredictable energy usage that makes model identification difficult, and satisfying the sensitive occupant comfort constraints. In the proposed approach, by separating the control mechanism into two layers above and below the load aggregator, MFC can be used below the aggregator to modulate flexible building loads in response to pricing signals with guaranteed performance. This allows the burden of identifying an accurate model of the system to be shifted to the above-aggregator layer, where fluctuations in individual building usage have less impact on predicted building system behavior. Game theory concepts can then be used to determine pricing curves and control signals among regional aggregators. Managing this control in a game-theoretic approach will allow us to build in financial incentives that increase customer engagement. Additionally, the usage of MFC necessitates less burdensome computational and communication requirements, thus, it is easily deployable on small, embedded devices. In a broader sense, developing a strategy capable of effectively incorporating residential and small commercial buildings will allow greater throughput of existing and emerging grid services in addition to future transactive energy grid management methods. Using MFC within a hierarchical control architecture will allow the shifting of existing forecasting challenges to an aggregate level, where dynamics are slower and more predictable. This will enable a smooth interface between the grid services requests of utilities and the reliable control required by participating buildings. MFC, which supports distributed control architecture, permits a scalable solution that can be deployed to neighborhood-size systems as well as individual buildings. This project focuses on three objectives: (1) developing the mathematical framework, algorithm toolkit, and software toolset of the two-layer transactive control testbed; (2) developing a scalable solution for application over many residential and small-size commercial buildings with sparse distributed communication; and (3) field testing and implementation on hardware of the control strategies developed in the previous two objectives. The research and development activities are focused and designed to be impactful within the relevant 2025 targets timeframe. An open-source control framework for exploiting variability and dispatchability of building loads will be delivered as the outcome of the project. This capability enables greater participation of loads in electricity markets and ancillary services that are both useful for the utility and financially beneficial for building owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2022 Edition

Wind power additions in the United States totaled 13.4 gigawatts (GW) in 2021. Recent growth is supported by the industry’s primary federal incentive—the production tax credit (PTC)—as well as a myriad of statelevel policies. Long-term improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technologies have also been key drivers for wind capacity additions, even as supply chain constraints due to increased commodity and transportation costs and COVID-19 restrictions push costs higher.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Review of Non-Regulatory Energy Efficiency Measures in the United States

Increasing energy efficiency is ubiquitous in many economies, and several mechanisms for achieving this increase, from mandatory policies to voluntary initiatives, have been proposed and implemented. In the United States, the Department of Energy, during the development of its energy conservation standard rules, evaluates the benefits from several of these mechanisms. In this report, we review how estimates of benefits from two types of voluntary energy efficiency initiatives – rebates and voluntary energy efficiency targets (VETs) – compare to the same benefits estimated for minimum energy efficiency standards (MEPS) established in the United States for residential appliances, commercial and industrial equipment, and lighting applications (referred to simply as “products” for the remainder of this report) between 2010 and 2020. Our results show that, overall, these two voluntary measures are estimated to provide, altogether, 36% of the total energy savings estimated to be provided by new efficiency standards, with a total net-present value that corresponds to 52% of the net-present value estimated for standards. When considering all energy conservation rules reviewed in this report, the energy savings a rebate program is estimated to achieve ranges from less than 1% to 86% of the savings from new standards set for the same type of product and at the same level of energy efficiency. As for VETs, the energy savings range from less than 1% to 78% of the savings from standards. Results vary widely across types of products due to (a) the relevance of the monetary incentive relative to incremental upfront costs considered for each type of product, and (b) the estimated level of market barriers associated with each type of product. While voluntary energy efficiency initiatives are not as effective as MEPS in transforming the market and raising the bar of energy efficiency for energy consuming goods in an economy, when applied in tandem with MEPS they can be powerful instruments for promoting and increasing energy efficiency in the economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Initial Engineering and Design for CO 2 Capture from Ethanol Facilities

The Energy & Environmental Research Center, in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and North Dakota ethanol producer Red Trail Energy, LLC (RTE) and with technical support from Trimeric Corporation and the KLJ engineering firm, completed an initial engineering design (IED) for a hybrid capture system to estimate associated costs for retrofitting the operational RTE ethanol plant. The project goal supports the DOE objective to achieve negative emissions using commercially available technologies to attain Technology Readiness Level 6+ from a facility emitting >100,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) annually. The RTE CCS (carbon capture and storage) Project is currently operating a CO 2 capture facility, adjacent to the RTE ethanol facility in western North Dakota, and injecting the CO 2 more than a mile below RTE property for permanent storage. This novel hybrid capture system would process about 310,000 tonnes of CO 2 annually for the RTE host site and includes CO 2 capture and compression from bioprocessing as well as capturing CO 2 produced from natural gas boilers. The bioprocessing capture process, based on past RTE studies investigating ammonia liquefaction technology with CO 2 produced from natural gas boilers captured utilizing chemical absorption with amine, was shown to be technically feasible for the RTE site. Activities conducted to support the project goal included 1) designing a hybrid capture system using CO 2 emissions from both bioprocessing and heat production at the host site facility; 2) conducting a pre-front-end engineering and design analysis of the hybrid capture system to include environmental health and safety, a constructability report, identification of permits, and corporate approvals; and 3) performing a techno-economic assessment in accordance with DOE’s methodology, as demonstrated by the bituminous baseline study. In addition, a life cycle assessment (LCA) was completed for the RTE site to estimate the carbon life cycle for ethanol-CCS implementation using the designed hybrid capture system to determine potential for net-negative carbon emissions. Results of the IED showed the hybrid system to be technically viable, with a moderate estimated cost of $55/tonne CO 2 captured for the hybrid system. The cradle-to-gate LCA showed preliminary net-negative carbon emissions potential anticipated from implementing a hybrid CCS system at a commercial scale. Recommended next steps toward potential implementation include hybrid capture system demonstration testing for detailed engineering and LCA model comparisons with low-carbon fuel incentive programs for financial support.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Closing the Gap: A Global Perspective [Slides]

Against the backdrop of negotiations at COP26, a group of internationally recognised research and technology organisations launched a collaboration, with the intention to identify the national and international technology-led opportunities to decarbonise fossil fuel basins globally. This study will evidence the opportunities available to players across the entire energy ecosystem. Governments and funders will be able to spread costs and investment risk, energy companies will develop a greater understanding of the global transition and possible opportunities to develop pilot projects worldwide, and there will be greater incentive to the supply chain once they are aware of the global applicability of certain technologies and technology solutions. Through the analysis and comparison of national energy systems, a number of Net Zero Deployment Strategies and Technology Priorities have been identified, that are shaping the direction of the construction of net zero integrated energy systems globally. These have been considered to design Recommendations for International Collaboration to accelerate the global energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Study on Electrostatic Separation of Quinoline Insolubles from Coal Tar Pitch

The feasibility of electrical separation in the removal of quinoline insoluble (QI) particles from coal tar pitch (CTP) was experimentally investigated. QI particle involvement prohibits the effective fabrication of high-quality value-added products, such as carbon fibers, from CTP. A substantial and sustainable CTP market exists around the world; therefore, a strong incentive exists to develop a viable technical approach to effectively and economically remove QI particles from CTP. The electrical separation method shows promise to achieve this technical goal (Cao et al., 2012). Even with the given setup (wire- cylinder adapted), critical issues remain to be addressed for this method to be applicable to the CTP: (1) identifying the wash oil used in the original QI separation, (2) understanding the mechanism of QI separation, (3) characterizing the deposit, and (4) identifying the QI. This study integrated a set of experimental and analysis techniques into the electrical separation tests to address the aforementioned issues. Key findings are as follows: 1. Electric current responses: • The electric current level of the CTP–wash oil solution reported by Cao et al. (2012) can be attained by using a mixture of 25% quinoline and 75% toluene for the CTPs examined in this study under the same electrical load condition. • The electric current tends to decrease during the test period because of the decreasing number of charged particles. • The reversed field corresponded to the configuration of electrostatic precipitation for positive corona discharge. The high electric field can result in dielectric breakdown and lead to an abrupt current surge. 2 Deposit response and solvent candidates: • Deposit of particles in CTP mixture can be effectively implemented in a wire-cylinder configuration as proposed and examined in this study. • Deposit depends on the solvents. Among the solvents tested, two- and three-part solvents that included quinoline and ethanol (i.e., 25% quinoline and 75% toluene; 50% quinoline and 50% toluene; and 33% wash oil, 33% BTX, and 34% ethanol) produced the highest deposit weight. • The deposit process examined in this study is derived from the charged particles. An appreciable relation exists between deposit weight and electric charge. 3. QI removal efficiency (RE): • The RE of the electrostatic separation can reach as high as 76.2% for Carbores, and 61.6% for Koppers. • The RE can be further enhanced if the field level increases from 0.16 kV/mm that was used in the current study to 0.23 kV/mm, according to the relation established between the RE and the electric field. 4. Testing of the modeling system: • The motion of particles is originally driven by the charge-based electric force in the cases tested. The solid particle separation mechanism is similar to that of QI deposition in CTP. • The mechanical movement of solid particles can be strongly affected by the gravitational and viscous forces in the electric field. 5. EDS analysis and chemical compositions: • The main chemical composition of deposit QI matches that of as-prepared CTP QI. The deposit QI is derived from the same group of the CTP QI. • In addition to carbon, the QI contains oxygen, sodium, aluminum, silicon, iron, and sulfur. The work for the near future is also discussed.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Technology Acceptance Workshop Meeting Proceedings, April 20-29, 2022

The Renewable Energy Wildlife Institute and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory convened a virtual workshop facilitated by the Consensus Building Institute in April 2022 to identify recommendations on how to accelerate the rate of research and development, evaluation, and adoption of technologies for monitoring or minimizing wildlife impacts from wind energy. The workshop drew on expertise from stakeholder groups including technology developers, federal agencies, conservation nonprofits, and the wind industry. Over the course of four sessions, participants discussed incentives and barriers to technology development beginning with early field testing and validation, through full-scale experimental deployment, and finally broad-scale acceptance and commercial deployment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Demonstration and Evaluation of the Human-Technology Integration Guidance for Plant Modernization

The significance of nuclear power in its role producing carbon-free electricity to the U.S. cannot be overstated. However, with changes in the energy market coupled with changes in incentives given to certain resources like solar and wind, the operating and maintenance costs for these sources have seen a significant reduction, which has consequently negatively impacted the economic viability of the existing U.S. nuclear power plant fleet. Digital instrumentation and control (I&C) and control room modernization is a major critical work domain to reduce operating and maintenance costs. Existing nuclear power plants are commonly configured with mostly legacy analog I&C as well as isolated pockets of digital I&C (a plant process computer, digital recorders, etc.). One challenge with this analog I&C is that replacement parts are becoming prohibitively more expensive and difficult to obtain. Moreover, a significant challenge with the existing analog I&C is that the way in which plants are currently operated and maintained is no longer competitive with other electricity generating sources, like natural gas, where advanced digital I&C technologies are commonplace. This gap between the waynuclear power plants are operated compared to other electricity generating sources significantly challenges the economic viability of the nuclear industry. Indeed, digital I&C systems can fundamentally change the way the plant is operated (i.e., the concept of operation). The introduction of digital I&C technologies offers a wealth of benefits to the nuclear industry. However, it is important to emphasize that, to realize these benefits, a careful understanding of how to integrate technology in a collaborative way that leverages the capabilities of people and technologies is necessary. Human-technology integration applies human factors engineering methods and tools to ensure the safe and reliable use of these technologies while ensuring that the inherent features of the technologies that provide economic value are not missed. The scope of this work documents the demonstration of the recently developed human and technology integration methodology, as applied to developing a new vision and concept of operations for a major U.S. nuclear power plant fleet. This report focuses on the methodological aspects of developing a vision and concept of operations. This report shares the tools, activities, and lessons learned during a modernization currently underway for industry as a whole to consider when planning any significant digital modification and developing a new vision and concept of operations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A modular chemo-selective oxygen production unit to deliver oxygen for advanced combustion systems

Commercial oxygen generation technologies deploy either cryogenic air separation or vacuum pressure swing adsorption (VPSA). These technologies can provide nearly pure oxygen but are only economically viable at oxygen production rates of 100-7,000 tonnes/day. The state-of-theart cryogenic air separation plants are impending the theoretical limits of thermodynamic efficiency but cannot be scaled down to cater future needs. Therefore, there is great incentive to develop a new approach for oxygen separation that can accommodate the upcoming demands. Our proposed research approach address to find novel methodologies to provide energy efficient modular O 2 on demand systems for modular gasification and other applications. Small scale modular systems for O 2 production offer certain benefits including enhanced energy efficiency, reduced operating costs and flexibility to tailor location specific needs. Our hypothesis is that a small modular system could be engineered using solvent-based capture and thermal release of oxygen, to enable “oxygen on demand” for any combustion-related technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects by Incorporating Machine Learning Techniques

The overall objective of this project is to develop a framework for reliable characterization and prediction of the state of stress in the overburden and underburden (including the basement) in CO 2 storage reservoirs using machine learning and integrated geomechanics and geophysical methods. Specifically, we propose to develop workflow encompassing of technologies and/or methods to predict stress and pressure changes due to CO 2 injection in an active tertiary recovery site and their impacts on subtle fault activation, fractures and occurrence of microseismic events and compare responses to field observations. In this project, we anticipate using dataset from the Farnsworth field Unit (FWU) which is operated by Purdure Petroleum. A novel elastic-waveform VSP inversion technique will be used to estimate high-resolution spatial and temporal changes of elastic moduli in CO 2 storage reservoirs, which will be combined with velocity-stress relationship derived from laboratory tests to obtain subsurface pressure and stress. Clustered microseismic data will be jointly inverted for improved focal mechanisms. Least-squares reverse-time migration of microseismic waveform data will be performed to directly image fracture/fault zones. Additionally, a deep neural network machine learning technique with convolutional and recurrent layers will be used for learning the spectro-temporal structures in microseismic waveforms. The results of this geotechnical data analysis will be integrated to develop a high-resolution 3D mechanical earth model extending from the overburden sealing formations to the underburden including the basement. Mechanical properties will be derived through integration of mechanical logs, tests, available results from chemo-mechanical laboratory tests, and elastic inversion of seismic data using a combination of Bayesian and stochastic methods as well as machine learning technique. Failure features (faults/fractures) will be represented and/or modeled based on seismic and core data analysis. A transient hydrodynamic-geomechanical model will be developed through coupling with the calibrated FWU reservoir simulation model. The full physics coupled model will be used to train a reduced order proxy model using machine learning algorithm for estimating stress which will then be used with appropriate constitutive relationships and forward seismological models to simulate pressure changes and induced microseismicity. An advanced optimization framework will be developed to perform a history match to minimize error between field observations and simulated. The history matched proxy model will be verified against the full-physics equivalent. The field observations that will be used in the coupled model calibration process include pressure/stress inverted from VSP, moment magnitude from microseismic analysis, real time downhole pressure measurements, production and injection data. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis will be performed to characterize the impact of model parameter uncertainty on stress estimates. The proposed project will have significant impact on future field implementation of the proposed technology. Because the project field site is an ongoing CO 2 EOR development, the value of the new technology will be demonstrated in an operational context and evaluated as a viable risk mitigation strategy. Cost/benefit will be evaluated together with the various commercial incentives for CO 2 sequestration available to oil and gas operators. The extensive available dataset and ongoing data acquisition under the SWP Phase III work plan provides flexibility for investigation of multiple approaches and reduces technical risk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of Energy Savings and Demand Reduction for a Heat Pump Integrated with Thermal Energy Storage (Final Report)

To mitigate the variation in demand on the electric grid, thermal energy storage (TES) is an alternative to electric batteries or installing new peaking power plants. Stakeholders and policy makers across the United States have expressed interests in promoting TES, as demonstrated by the US Department of Energy’s Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings program and the efforts of various state legislatures. However, the cost value provided by TES are unclear. If reliable cost benefits were determined, stakeholders would have a clearer picture of the financial returns that can be gained from their investment in TES. The study in this report is conducted by ORNL with collaboration with Emerson the Helix Innovation Center. In the first part of this report, EnergyPlus was used to perform whole-building simulations for two residential buildings in Indianapolis and Atlanta. The HVAC system in both buildings were equipped with phase change material TES. The TES tank was charged in off-peak hours and discharged in peak hours to perform load shifting. First, the economic value implied by existing time-of-use (TOU) rates offered by utility companies was analyzed via whole-building simulation. Second, existing demand reduction (DR) incentives sourced from 3 different electrical grid administrators (i.e., California, Texas, and New England region) were surveyed to determine their implied value. The study suggests that the traditional value analysis that focuses on ROI for the building owner significantly undervalues TES technology making economic viability difficult. A more comprehensive value analysis that includes peak demand management and deferred capital for peaking power plants shows that TES should be economically viable but here the value is greater for the utility and requires large market penetration and aggregation to fully realize the benefits. Therefore, to facilitate commercialization, new business models are needed that include a broader range of stakeholders and distribute the value of TES proportionally. In the 2 nd part of this project, the benefits of a novel phase change material (PCM) integrated heat pump configuration were evaluated via detailed component based simulation. A one-dimensional PCM heat exchanger model which discretizes the PCM tank and refrigerant tubes into small control volumes is developed. Each control volume can have different PCM temperatures, PCM properties, and heat transfer coefficients. The PCM tank is charged by a wrapped tank condenser and discharged by an internal refrigerant coil. The PCM heat exchanger model is integrated into DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model for heat pump system simulation. To demonstrate the performance of the PCM integrated heat pump, a case study in Chicago was performed. A Time-of-Use utility structure-based control strategy is implemented to schedule the PCM tank charging and discharging mode switching. Compared with a conventional electric heat pump, the PCM integrated heat pump shows superior performance on load shifting and utility cost reduction. As a result, the proposed system demonstrates 24.6% utility saving for cooling application and 25.8% utility saving for heating application.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Analysis of Confidence Metrics for Nuclear Criticality Safety

Nuclear criticality safety standards provide guidance on the requirements and recommendations to establish confidence in computerized model results used to support operation with fissionable materials. By design, the guidance is not prescriptive, leaving the analysts free to determine how various sources of uncertainties are to be statistically aggregated. This report compares the analyses and key assumptions behind four notable methodologies documented in the nuclear criticality safety literature: the parametric, nonparametric, Whisper, and TSURFER methodologies. Because of the involved use of statistics entangled with heuristic recipes, the results of these methodologies are often difficult to interpret. Also, they are augmented by additional large administrative margins, eliminating the incentive to understand their differences. With the new resurgent wave of advanced nuclear systems focused on economizing operation—including advanced reactors, fuel cycles, and fuel concepts—there is a strong need to develop a clear understanding of uncertainties and their fusion methodologies to reduce uncertainties in a scientifically defensible manner. This report offers a deep dive into the various assumptions of the four noted methodologies, their adequacy, and their limitations, to provide guidance on developing confidence for the emergent nuclear systems. These systems are expected to be challenged by the scarcity of experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Demand Response in Industrial Facilities: Peak Electric Demand

The US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Better Buildings, Better Plants Program (Better Plants) is a voluntary energy efficiency leadership initiative for US manufacturers and water/wastewater entities. The program encourages organizations to commit to reducing the energy intensity of their US operations over a 10-year period, typically by 25%. Companies joining Better Plants are recognized by DOE for their leadership in implementing energy efficiency practices and for reducing their energy intensity. Better Plants Partners are assigned to a Technical Account Manager, who can help companies establish energy intensity baselines, develop energy management plans, and identify key resources and incentives from DOE, other federal agencies, states, utilities, and other organizations that can enable them to reach their goals. Better Plants Partners are expected to report their progress to DOE once a year. This involves establishing an energy intensity baseline upon joining the program and then tracking their progress over time. Demand Response in Industrial Facilities: Peak Electrical Demand is intended to help companies understand peak demand response programs offering by their local utility. Manufacturing industries can learn about time-varying rates and smart technologies they can use to help them reduce their energy bills. This guidance document is applicable to companies participating at either the program or challenge level. Although this guide is intended primarily to assist companies participating in Better Plants, the methodologies and guidance within the document are applicable to any organization interested in understanding peak demand response programs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grid-Integrated Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels from Nuclear Power

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) investigates the relative economic profitability of an integrated energy system (IES) coupling an NPP with a synfuel production process at selected case study locations across the United States. In the synfuel IES, a high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) plant is thermally and electrically coupled with an NPP to produce zero-carbon hydrogen. The synthetic fuel is produced from this H 2 combined with a CO 2 supply using the reverse water gas shift process followed by the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) reaction. This analysis considers a system in which the CO 2 is sourced from regional CO 2 emitters via the construction and operation of pipeline-based CO 2 supply networks. Locating the FT plant at the same site as the NPP and HTSE plants enables the NPP to provide zero-carbon heat and power to the HTSE plant and zero-carbon power to the FT plant as well as avoid the requirement for long-distance H 2 product transport from the HTSE plant to the FT plant. Hydrogen storage is used to enable the NPP to dispatch power to the electrical grid (instead of the HTSE plant) when grid demand increases, thus enabling the FT plant to continue to operate in a steady-state production mode. The ability to cease hydrogen production for several hours within each day enables the NPP to provide power to the grid to balance the electricity market during peak periods and maximize revenues for the nuclear synfuel IES. The FT process design considered has a 99% carbon conversion efficiency. The use of nuclear energy and nuclear energy-derived hydrogen enables synfuel production to achieve this high level of carbon utilization. Additionally, the life-cycle carbon emissions of the nuclear-based synfuel production process are very low, with WTW emissions of approximately 25 gCO 2 e/MJ, including steam credits (generated from FT process excess heat), and approximately 7 gCO 2 e/MJ, if steam credits are excluded. This compares favorably with the WTW emissions of 90.5 gCO 2 e/MJ for a compression-ignition, direct injection (CIDI) vehicle with a fuel economy of 31.6 miles per gallon gasoline equivalent (MPGGE), using low-sulfur diesel produced using conventional petroleum production and refining processes. Several NPPs in various regions of the U.S. are considered as case study analyses. Supply locations and transportation via pipeline of the CO 2 feedstock to the NPP site are analyzed through the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) CO 2 Transport Cost model. The team finds that the amount of CO 2 generated by different sectors is sufficient for the synfuel production process at all locations considered. The CO 2 transportation costs are functions of the distance of the source to the NPP location, the CO 2 capture cost at the source, and the quantity of CO 2 transported. Historical electricity prices for the NPP case study locations are collected and analyzed. Monthly average prices, price range, and duration of negative-price periods vary among these locations. For each location, an auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model is trained on historical electricity price data. ARMA validation is done to ensure the synthetic price distributions represent one of historical prices with high fidelity. Synthetic time series from these ARMA models are used in a coupled dispatch and system optimization in the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) to compute the differential net present value (NPV) of the IES. The team finds that this econometric is positive, ranging from $14M–1.3bn (2020) depending on the location. The optimal synfuel IES configuration to obtain this increase in NPV often maximizes the size of the synfuel production process with regards to the size of the NPP. However, the team shows that the NPP still plays a stabilizing role for the grid: In periods of high prices and high loads, more electricity from the NPP is sent to the grid. A high variability of electricity prices and extreme maximum prices tend to drive up electricity production. While it requires significant investment, the synfuel IES could increase the economic profitability for the existing fleet of LWRs across the country while still maintaining the grid stabilizer role of NPPs. During its lifetime, the main costs for the nuclear synfuel IES are the carbon feedstock transportation costs, followed by the capital expenses (CAPEX) and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs while the revenue comes first from the IRA H 2 production tax credit (PTC) and then from the sales of synfuel products. The profitability of the synfuel IES is most sensitive to the value of the hydrogen PTC and the synfuel products as well as the cost of the carbon feedstock, highlighting the importance of governmental incentives regarding hydrogen, carbon emissions, and synfuel in driving the deployment of future nuclear synfuel IESs.

08 HYDROGEN↗