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DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing Uncertainty in Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Hazard Models for U.S. Energy Infrastructure Resilience

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are intense storms that pose a persistent and considerable risk to coastal communities and infrastructure in the global tropics and subtropics, including the United States (US). With known limitations associated with observations and high-resolution earth system models, synthetic TC models that capture a wide spectrum of storm possibilities have been developed to robustly quantify TC risk. Here we examine the simulation of various TC features in the North Atlantic relevant for US coastal risk in three synthetic TC models forced with ERA5 reanalysis: MIT, CHAZ and RAFT. While there is a broad agreement among these models in terms of their representation of salient TC characteristics, certain differences do exist. To connect these modeling uncertainties with energy infrastructure resilience, we apply fragility curves that link simulated TC intensities to damage probabilities, demonstrating how uncertainty in storm states may translate into that in coastal impacts. Our study indicates that acknowledging and accounting for inter-model uncertainty leads to more reliable risk assessments, strengthening science-to-action pathways for managing risks associated with TCs.

Baby John, Effy↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deblending galaxies with variational autoencoders: A joint multiband, multi-instrument approach

ABSTRACT Blending of galaxies has a major contribution in the systematic error budget of weak-lensing studies, affecting photometric and shape measurements, particularly for ground-based, deep, photometric galaxy surveys, such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Existing deblenders mostly rely on analytic modelling of galaxy profiles and suffer from the lack of flexible yet accurate models. We propose to use generative models based on deep neural networks, namely variational autoencoders (VAE), to learn probabilistic models directly from data. We train a VAE on images of centred, isolated galaxies, which we reuse, as a prior, in a second VAE-like neural network in charge of deblending galaxies. We train our networks on simulated images including six LSST bandpass filters and the visible and near-infrared bands of the Euclid satellite, as our method naturally generalizes to multiple bands and can incorporate data from multiple instruments. We obtain median reconstruction errors on ellipticities and r-band magnitude between ±0.01 and ±0.05, respectively, in most cases, and ellipticity multiplicative bias of 1.6 per cent for blended objects in the optimal configuration. We also study the impact of decentring and prove the method to be robust. This method only requires the approximate centre of each target galaxy, but no assumptions about the number of surrounding objects, pointing to an iterative detection/deblending procedure we leave for future work. Finally, we discuss future challenges about training on real data and obtain encouraging results when applying transfer learning.

Arcelin, Bastien↗

DOE OSTI2021

Surrogate modelling the Baryonic Universe II: On forward modelling the colours of individual and populations of galaxies

ABSTRACT Among the properties shaping the light of a galaxy, the star formation history (SFH) is one of the most challenging to model due to the variety of correlated physical processes regulating star formation. In this work, we leverage the stellar population synthesis model fsps, together with SFHs predicted by the hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG and the empirical model universemachine, to study the impact of star formation variability on galaxy colours. We start by introducing a model-independent metric to quantify the burstiness of a galaxy formation model, and we use this metric to demonstrate that universemachine predicts SFHs with more burstiness relative to IllustrisTNG. Using this metric and principal component analysis, we construct families of SFH models with adjustable variability, and we show that the precision of broad-band optical and near-infrared colours degrades as the level of unresolved short-term variability increases. We use the same technique to demonstrate that variability in metallicity and dust attenuation presents a practically negligible impact on colours relative to star formation variability. We additionally provide a model-independent fitting function capturing how the level of unresolved star formation variability translates into imprecision in predictions for galaxy colours; our fitting function can be used to determine the minimal SFH model that reproduces colours with some target precision. Finally, we show that modelling the colours of individual galaxies with per cent-level precision demands resorting to complex SFH models, while producing precise colours for galaxy populations can be achieved using models with just a few degrees of freedom.

Chaves-Montero, Jonás (ORCID:0000000295534261)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Angular clustering properties of the DESI QSO target selection using DR9 Legacy Imaging Surveys

ABSTRACT The quasar target selection for the upcoming survey of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will be fixed for the next 5 yr. The aim of this work is to validate the quasar selection by studying the impact of imaging systematics as well as stellar and galactic contaminants, and to develop a procedure to mitigate them. Density fluctuations of quasar targets are found to be related to photometric properties such as seeing and depth of the Data Release 9 of the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys. To model this complex relation, we explore machine learning algorithms (random forest and multilayer perceptron) as an alternative to the standard linear regression. Splitting the footprint of the Legacy Imaging Surveys into three regions according to photometric properties, we perform an independent analysis in each region, validating our method using extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) EZ-mocks. The mitigation procedure is tested by comparing the angular correlation of the corrected target selection on each photometric region to the angular correlation function obtained using quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 16. With our procedure, we recover a similar level of correlation between DESI quasar targets and SDSS quasars in two-thirds of the total footprint and we show that the excess of correlation in the remaining area is due to a stellar contamination that should be removed with DESI spectroscopic data. We derive the Limber parameters in our three imaging regions and compare them to previous measurements from SDSS and the 2dF QSO Redshift Survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Beyond mass: detecting secondary halo properties with galaxy-galaxy lensing

ABSTRACT Secondary halo properties beyond mass, such as the mass accretion rate (MAR), concentration, and the half mass scale, are essential in understanding the formation of large-scale structure and dark matter haloes. In this paper, we study the impact of secondary halo properties on the galaxy-galaxy lensing observable, ΔΣ. We build an emulator trained on N-body simulations to model ΔΣ and quantify the impact of different secondary parameters on the ΔΣ profile. We focus on the impact of MAR on ΔΣ. We show that a 3σ detection of variations in MAR at fixed halo mass could be achieved with the Hyper Suprime Cam survey assuming no baryonic effects and a proxy for MAR with scatter <1.5. We show that the full radial profile of ΔΣ depends on secondary properties at fixed halo mass. Consequently, an emulator that can perform full shape fitting yields better than two times improvement upon the constraints on MAR than only using the outer part of the halo. Finally, we highlight that miscentring and MAR impact the radial profile of ΔΣ in a similar fashion, implying that miscentring and MAR need to be modelled jointly for unbiased estimates of both effects. We show that present-day lensing data sets have the statistical capability to place constraints on halo MAR within our assumptions. Our analysis opens up new possibilities for observationally measuring the assembly history of the dark matter haloes that host galaxies and clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A study of convective core overshooting as a function of stellar mass based on two-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations

ABSTRACT We perform two-dimensional (2D) numerical simulations of core convection for zero-age main-sequence stars covering a mass range from 3 to 20 M⊙. The simulations are performed with the fully compressible time-implicit code music. We study the efficiency of overshooting, which describes the ballistic process of convective flows crossing a convective boundary, as a function of stellar mass and luminosity. We also study the impact of artificially increasing the stellar luminosity for 3 M⊙ models. The simulations cover hundreds to thousands of convective turnover time-scales. Applying the framework of extreme plume events previously developed for convective envelopes, we derive overshooting lengths as a function of stellar masses. We find that the overshooting distance (dov) scales with the stellar luminosity (L) and the convective core radius (rconv). We derive a scaling law $d_{\rm ov} \propto L^{1/3} r_{\rm conv}^{1/2}$, which is implemented in a one-dimensional stellar evolution code and the resulting stellar models are compared to observations. The scaling predicts values for the overshooting distance that significantly increase with stellar mass, in qualitative agreement with observations. Quantitatively, however, the predicted values are underestimated for masses ≳10 M⊙. Our 2D simulations show the formation of a nearly adiabatic layer just above the Schwarzschild boundary of the convective core, as exhibited in recent three-dimensional simulations of convection. The most luminous models show a growth in size with time of the nearly adiabatic layer. This growth seems to slow down as the upper edge of the nearly adiabatic layer gets closer to the maximum overshooting length and as the simulation time exceeds the typical thermal diffusive time-scale in the overshooting layer.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Strain-Driven Evolution of Structural and Carrier Recombination Dynamics in Germanium

Strain engineering in group-IV semiconductors, in particular germanium (Ge), offers a promising route for advancing next-generation optoelectronic device performance. High minority carrier lifetime serves as a direct indicator of superior material quality and device efficiency. Several factors govern the minority carrier lifetime in both strained Ge and strained GeSn, such as strain level, epilayer thickness, defects, surface roughness, and Sn alloying. In this study, the impact of biaxial strain on effective minority carrier lifetimes of tensile-strained Ge (0% ..epsilon..-Ge/Al?As, 0.78% ..epsilon..-Ge/In0.115?Ga0.885?As, and 0.93% ..epsilon..-Ge/In0.16?Ga0.84?As) and compressively strained GeSn (-0.53% c-Ge0.97?Sn0.03/Al?As) epilayers, grown by molecular beam epitaxy, was experimentally investigated via the microwave-reflection photoconductive decay (..mu..-PCD) technique as a simultaneous function of thickness and strain. The structural and strain-relaxation properties were analyzed by high-resolution x-ray diffraction and Raman spectroscopy, while surface morphology analysis using atomic force microscopy provided insights into the surface roughness of strained Ge-based epilayers. Defect characterization by cross-section transmission electron microscopy revealed superior crystalline quality of ..epsilon..-Ge in one epilayer, while twin boundary formation was observed in the other. We investigated the carrier recombination dynamics in epitaxially strained Ge by extracting the bulk recombination lifetime and surface recombination velocity using the thickness-dependent minority carrier lifetime. High effective minority carrier lifetimes of approximately 60-340 ns were achieved at high strain levels with minimal dependence on the thickness of the strained Ge-based epilayers by means of the ..mu..-PCD technique. Minority carrier lifetimes in Ge-based epilayers exhibit a quadratic dependence on the biaxial strain, ranging from -0.88% (compressive) to +1.6% (tensile). The analysis of the carrier recombination dynamics in strained Ge-based heterostructures offers a pathway to designing group-IV based optoelectronic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Niobium coaxial cavities with internal quality factors exceeding 1.4 × 10 9 for circuit quantum electrodynamics

Group-V materials such as niobium and tantalum have become popular choices for extending the performance of circuit quantum electrodynamics (cQED) platforms, allowing for quantum processors and memories with reduced error rates and more modes. The complex surface chemistry of niobium, however, makes identifying the main modes of decoherence difficult at millikelvin temperatures and single-photon powers. We use niobium coaxial quarter-wave cavities to study the impact of etch chemistry, prolonged atmospheric exposure, and the significance of cavity conditions prior to and during cooldown—in particular, niobium hydride evolution—on single-photon coherence. We demonstrate cavities with quality factors Q int ≳ 1.4 × 10 9 in the single-photon regime, a 15-fold improvement over aluminum cavities of the same geometry. We rigorously quantify the sensitivity of our fabrication process to various loss mechanisms and demonstrate a two- to fourfold reduction in the two-level system loss tangent and a three- to fivefold improvement in the residual resistance over traditional buffered chemical polishing etching techniques. Finally, we demonstrate transmon integration and coherent cavity control while maintaining a cavity coherence of 11.3 ms. The accessibility of our method, which can be easily replicated in academic laboratory settings, together with the demonstration of its performance, mark an advancement in three-dimensional cQED.

Oriani, Andrew E. [Chicago U., EFI; Chicago U.] (O↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fission and the r -process nucleosynthesis of translead nuclei in neutron star mergers

In this report we study the impact of fission on the production and destruction of translead nuclei during the r-process nucleosynthesis occurring in neutron-star mergers. Abundance patterns and rates of nuclear energy production are obtained for different ejecta conditions using three sets of stellar reaction rates, one of which is based on microscopic and consistent calculations of nuclear masses, fission barriers, and collective inertias. We show that the accumulation of fissioning material during the r process can strongly affect the free neutron abundance after the r-process freeze-out. This leads to a significant impact on the abundances of heavy nuclei that undergo α decay or spontaneous fission, affecting the radioactive energy production by the ejecta at timescales relevant for kilonova emission.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Simple relativistic quark models

A class of phenomenological relativistic models of hadronic systems motivated by quantum chromodynamics that have dual representations as models of mesons and nucleons or quarks and gluons is investigated. These models are designed to provided qualitative insight into the role of sea quarks in hadronic structure and reactions. The model assumption is that the Hamiltonian can be divided into two parts: one that involves degrees of freedom in the same connected local and global color singlet and the remaining interactions that allow the connected local and global color singlets to interact. The first class of interactions results in infinite towers of bare “particles” with hadronic quantum numbers. All but a finite number of these remain stable when the second class of interactions is included. The model interactions are expressed in terms of subhadronic degrees of freedom, which determine the bare hadronic spectrum and the interactions involving the bare hadrons in terms of a small number of subhadronic model parameters. As a first test, this paper considers the simplest case of mesons that interact via a string-breaking interaction. One virtue of this model is that all of the bare meson masses and eigenfunctions can be computed analytically. In addition, the string-breaking interaction leads to production vertices that can also be computed analytically. The relativistic wave functions have a light-front kinematic symmetry. The goal is to find a simple relativistic quantum mechanical model based on subhadronic degrees of freedom that can provide an efficient, qualitatively consistent description of hadronic masses, lifetimes, cross sections, sea quark effects, and electromagnetic properties. The simplicity of the model makes it a potentially useful tool to study the impact of sea quarks on hadronic structure and reactions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Constraints on the nuclear symmetry energy from asymmetric-matter calculations with chiral 𝑁⁢𝑁 and 3⁢𝑁 interactions

The nuclear symmetry energy is a key quantity in nuclear (astro)physics. It describes the isospin dependence of the nuclear equation of state, which is commonly assumed to be almost quadratic. Here, in this work, we confront this standard quadratic expansion of the equation of state with explicit asymmetric nuclear-matter calculations based on a set of commonly used Hamiltonians including two- and three-nucleon forces derived from chiral effective-field theory. We study, in particular, the importance of nonquadratic contributions to the symmetry energy, including the nonanalytic logarithmic term introduced by Kaiser [Phys. Rev. C 91, 065201 (2015)]. Our results suggest that the nonquadratic contribution to the symmetry energy can be systematically determined from the various Hamiltonians employed, and we obtain 0.74$^{+0.11}_{−0.08}$ MeV (or −1.02$^{+0.11}_{−0.08}$ MeV for the potential term with the effective-mass contribution) at nuclear saturation density, while the logarithmic contribution to the symmetry energy is relatively small and model-dependent. We also employ the meta-model approach to study the impact of the higher-order contributions on the neutron-star crust-core transition density, and find a 5% correction.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nuclear charge densities in spherical and deformed nuclei: Toward precise calculations of charge radii

Precise measurements of atomic transitions affected by electron-nucleus hyperfine interactions offer sensitivity to explore basic properties of the atomic nucleus and study fundamental symmetries, including the search for new physics beyond the standard model of particle physics. Specifically, such measurements, augmented by atomic and nuclear calculations, will enable extraction of the higher-order radial moments of the charge-density distribution in spherical and deformed nuclei. The new data impose higher precision requirements on a theoretical description. The nuclear charge density is composed of the proton point distribution folded with the nucleonic charge distributions. The latter induce subtle relativistic corrections due to the coupling of nucleon magnetic moments with the nuclear spin-orbit density. Additional corrections come from the effect of center-of-mass projection. We assess the precision of nuclear charge density calculations by studying the behavior of relativistic and center-of-mass motion corrections to the second and fourth charge radial moments. Special attention has been paid to the magnetic spin-orbit density associated with the local variations of the spin-orbit current. The calculations for semimagic and open-shell nuclei are performed in the framework of self-consistent mean-field theory using quantified energy density functionals and density-dependent pairing forces. We used the general expression for the spin-orbit form factor that is valid for spherical and deformed nuclei. We studied the impact of various correction terms on the charge radii, fourth radial moments, diffraction radii, and surface thickness of spherical and deformed nuclei. The spin-orbit corrections to charge radial moments and surface thickness show strong shell fluctuations which can make an appreciable effect when aiming at high-precision predictions of isotopic shifts. The inclusion of relativistic and center-of-mass corrections impacts the quality of energy density functionals optimized to charge radii data. To establish reliable constraints on the existence of new forces from isotope shift measurements, precise calculations of nuclear charge densities of deformed nuclei are needed. The proper inclusion of the spin-orbit charge density and other correction terms is essential when aiming at extraction of subtle effects which become particularly visible in isotopic trends. It is also important when developing high-quality nuclear energy density functionals optimized using heterogeneous datasets involving absolute charge radii, differential charge radii, and charge form factor properties deduced from electron-scattering data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simultaneous extraction of the weak radius and the weak mixing angle from parity-violating electron scattering on 12 C

We study the impact of nuclear structure uncertainties on a measurement of the weak charge of 12 C at the future Mainz Energy Recovering Superconducting Accelerator (MESA) facility in Mainz. Information from a large variety of nuclear models, accurately calibrated to the ground-state properties of selected nuclei, suggest that a 0.3% precision measurement of the parity-violating asymmetry at forward angles will not be compromised by nuclear structure effects, thereby allowing a world-leading determination of the weak charge of 12 C . Furthermore, we show that a combination of measurements of the parity-violating asymmetry at forward and backward angles for the same electron-beam energy can be used to extract information on the nuclear weak charge distribution. We conclude that a 0.34% precision on the weak radius of 12 C may be achieved by performing a 3% precision measurement of the parity-violating asymmetry at backward angles.

Electroweak interaction↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probing nuclear structure of heavy ions at energies available at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

We perform high-statistics simulations to study the impacts of nuclear structure on the ratios of anisotropic flow observables in 208 Pb + 208 Pb and 129 Xe + 129 Xe collisions at the Large Hadron Collider. Even with 40% difference in atomic numbers between 208 Pb and 129 Xe nuclei, the ratios of anisotropic flow in the same centrality class between the two collision systems are strongly affected by the nuclear structure inputs in the initial state. The ratios of v 2 ⁡{4}/v 2 ⁡{2} in these collisions are sensitive to the nuclear skin thickness of the colliding nuclei, providing indirect constraints on the nuclei's neutron skin. In conclusion, our model predictions serve as a benchmark to compare with experimental measurements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bulk viscosity of nuclear matter with pions in the neutrino-trapped regime

Recent work has shown that a population of thermal pions could modify the equation of state and transport properties of hot and dense neutron-rich matter and introduce new reaction pathways to change the proton fraction. In this article we study their impact on the bulk viscosity of dense matter, focusing on the neutrino-trapped regime that would be realized in neutron star mergers and supernovae. We find that the presence of a thermal population of pions alters the bulk viscosity by modifying the EoS (via the susceptibilities) and by providing new reaction pathways to achieve beta equilibrium. In neutron star merger conditions, the bulk viscosity in neutrino-trapped npeμ matter (without pions) has its peak at temperatures of at most a couple MeV and is quite small at temperatures of tens of MeV. We find that thermal pions enhance the low-temperature peak of the bulk viscosity by a factor of a few and shift it to slightly lower temperatures. At higher temperatures, where the pion abundance is large but the bulk viscosity is traditionally small, pions can increase the bulk viscosity by an order of magnitude or more, although it is still orders of magnitude smaller than its peak value.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Signatures of deconfined quark phases in binary neutron star mergers

We investigate the quark deconfinement phase transition in the context of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers. We employ a new finite-temperature composition-dependent equation of state (EOS) with a first order phase transition between hadrons and deconfined quarks to perform numerical relativity simulations of BNS mergers. Here, the softening of the EOS due to the phase transition causes the merger remnants to be more compact and to collapse to a black hole (BH) at earlier times. The phase transition is imprinted on the postmerger gravitational wave (GW) signal duration, amplitude, and peak frequency. However, this imprint is only detectable for binaries with sufficiently long-lived remnants. Moreover, the phase transition does not result in significant deviations from quasi-universal relations for the postmerger GW peak frequency. We also study the impact of the phase transition on dynamical ejecta, remnant accretion disk masses, r-process nucleosynthetic yields and associated electromagnetic (EM) counterparts. While there are differences in the EM counterparts and nucleosynthesis yields between the purely hadronic models and the models with phase transitions, these can be primarily ascribed to the difference in remnant collapse time between the two. An exception is the non-thermal afterglow caused by the interaction of the fastest component of the dynamical ejecta and the interstellar medium, which is systematically boosted in the binaries with phase transition as a consequence of the more violent merger they experience.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Detecting the stochastic gravitational wave background from massive gravity with pulsar timing arrays

We explore the potential of pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) such as NANOGrav, EPTA, and PPTA to detect the stochastic gravitational wave background in theories of massive gravity. In general relativity, the function describing the dependence of the correlation between the arrival times of signals from two pulsars on the angle between them is known as the Hellings-Downs curve. We compute the analogous overlap reduction function for massive gravity, including the additional polarization states and the correction due to the mass of the graviton, and compare the result with the Hellings-Downs curve. The primary result is a complete analytical form for the analog Hellings-Downs curve, providing a starting point for future numerical studies aimed at a detailed comparison between PTA data and the predictions of massive gravity. We study both the massless limit and the stationary limit as checks on our calculation, and discuss how our formalism also allows us to study the impact of massive spin-2 dark matter candidates on data from PTAs.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Small-scale clumping at recombination and the Hubble tension

Despite the success of the standard ΛCDM model of cosmology, recent data improvements have made tensions emerge between low- and high-redshift observables, most importantly in determinations of the Hubble constant H 0 and the (rescaled) clustering amplitude S 8 . The high-redshift data, from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), crucially relies on recombination physics for its interpretation. In this work, we study how small-scale baryon inhomogeneities (i.e., clumping) can affect recombination and consider whether they can relieve both the H 0 and S 8 tensions. Such small-scale clumping, which may be caused by primordial magnetic fields or baryon isocurvature below kpc scales, enhances the recombination rate even when averaged over larger scales, shifting recombination to earlier times. We introduce a flexible clumping model, parametrized via three spatial zones with free densities and volume fractions, and use it to study the impact of clumping on CMB observables. We find that increasing H 0 decreases both Ω m and S 8 , which alleviates the S 8 tension. On the other hand, the shift in Ω m is disfavored by the low-z baryon-acoustic-oscillations measurements. We find that the clumping parameters that can change the CMB sound horizon enough to explain the H 0 tension also alter the damping tail, so they are disfavored by current Planck 2018 data. We test how the CMB damping-tail information rules out changes to recombination by first removing ℓ > 1000 multipoles in Planck data, where we find that clumping could resolve the H 0 tension. Furthermore, we make predictions for future CMB experiments, as their improved damping-tail precision can better constrain departures from standard recombination. Both the Simons Observatory and CMB-S4 will provide decisive evidence for or against clumping as a resolution to the H 0 tension.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗