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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2017

Morphology control enables thickness-insensitive efficient nonfullerene polymer solar cells

Owing to the use of cost-effective materials and excellent stability, nonfullerene polymer solar cells (PSCs) have great potential for realizing large-area industrial production. In contrast to fullerene-based devices, non-fullerene PSCs have exhibited a superior photovoltaic performance with up to 12% efficiency and long-term thermal stability. Presently, one of the major factors hindering industrial production is the high sensitivity of the power conversion efficiency (PCE) to thickness variations, which can significantly affect the manufacturing yields and production costs of roll-to-roll processing. Specifically, the device fill factors and PCEs of many high-efficiency nonfullerene PSCs show a significant loss when the thickness of the active layer is over 100 nm. In order to achieve high output capabilities earlier, there is an urgent need to find a processing method to fabricate high-efficiency thick-film nonfullerene PSCs. Controlling the morphology and performance sensitivity in thick-film non-fullerene devices is a great challenge in the field. In this paper, we present a simple morphology optimization method via thermal annealing to fabricate highly efficient thickness-insensitive non-fullerene PSCs. After this treatment, PBDB-T/IT-M-based nonfullerene PSCs can afford an impressive PCE of up to ~9.4% at an active layer thickness of 250 nm. In addition, the devices with an active layer thickness of 400 nm still maintain a high efficiency close to 9%. The photovoltaic properties and morphology parameters resolved from hard and soft X-ray scattering clearly indicate that thermal annealing plays a key role in improving the film thickness insensitivity for non-fullerene PSCs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Evidence of trap-assisted Auger recombination in low radiative efficiency MBE-grown III-nitride LEDs

By studying low radiative efficiency blue III-nitride light emitting diodes (LEDs), we find that the ABC model of recombination commonly used for understanding efficiency behavior in LEDs is insufficient and that additional effects should be taken into account. We propose a modification to the standard recombination model by incorporating a bimolecular nonradiative term. The modified model is shown to be in much better agreement with the radiative efficiency data and to be more consistent than the conventional model with very short carrier lifetimes measured by time-resolved photoluminescence in similar, low radiative efficiency material. Here, we present experimental evidence that a hot carrier-generating process is occurring within these devices, in the form of measurements of forward photocurrent under forward bias. The forward photocurrent, due to hot carrier generation in the active region, is present despite the lack of any "efficiency droop"-the usual signature of band-to-band Auger recombination in high-quality III-nitride LEDs. Hot carrier generation in the absence of band-to-band Auger recombination implies that some other source of hot carriers exists within these low radiative efficiency devices, such as trap-assisted Auger recombination.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Determining the bubble nucleation efficiency of low-energy nuclear recoils in superheated C 3 F 8 dark matter detectors

The bubble nucleation efficiency of low-energy nuclear recoils in superheated liquids plays a crucial role in interpreting results from direct searches for weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) dark matter. Here, the PICO collaboration presents the results of the efficiencies for bubble nucleation from carbon and fluorine recoils in superheated C 3 F 8 from calibration data taken with five distinct neutron spectra at various thermodynamic thresholds ranging from 2.1 to 3.9 keV. Instead of assuming any particular functional forms for the nuclear recoil efficiency, a generalized piecewise linear model is proposed with systematic errors included as nuisance parameters to minimize model-introduced uncertainties. A Markov chain Monte Carlo routine is applied to sample the nuclear recoil efficiency for fluorine and carbon at 2.45 and 3.29 keV thermodynamic thresholds simultaneously. The nucleation efficiency for fluorine was found to be ≥ 50% for nuclear recoils of 3.3 keV (3.7 keV) at a thermodynamic Seitz threshold of 2.45 keV (3.29 keV), and for carbon the efficiency was found to be ≥ 50% for recoils of 10.6 keV (11.1 keV) at a threshold of 2.45 keV (3.29 keV). Simulated datasets are used to calculate a p value for the fit, confirming that the model used is compatible with the data. The fit paradigm is also assessed for potential systematic biases, which although small, are corrected for. Additional steps are performed to calculate the expected interaction rates of WIMPs in the PICO-60 detector, a requirement for calculating WIMP exclusion limits.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

World Record Demonstration of > 30% Thermophotovoltaic Conversion Efficiency

Thermophotovoltaic (TPV) devices are solid-state heat engines that convert thermal radiation into electricity using semiconductor diodes, and have applications in energy storage, primary power conversion, and waste heat recovery. Higher temperature emitters and wider band gap photovoltaics (PVs) generally afford higher TPV efficiencies. High temperature emitters are accessible in thermal energy storage applications. We have demonstrated a world record 31% +/- 2% TPV conversion efficiency with a 0.9 cm2 GaAs-based PV device under a 2430 °C thermal emitter, producing an electrical output power of 2.23 W. Critical to the result was the cell’s high reflectance of photon energies below the device band gap. Unlike solar PV, for which sub-band gap (SBG) light is lost, a TPV cell can reflect and recycle SBG light to the thermal emitter. The demonstration was made on a custom-built measurement platform in which a ~100 cm2 graphite thermal emitter was heated under vacuum up to 2430 °C. The TPV efficiency was evaluated by comparing the measured electrical output power of the TPV with the calorimetrically measured total net power incident on the cell. The measured TPV efficiency as a function of thermal emitter temperature was corroborated by our full system modeling predictions. As far as the authors are aware, this is the highest TPV conversion efficiency ever measured, and device improvements should yield > 40% efficiency in the near future.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

DOE OSTI2020

High-Efficiency Inductive Output Tubes Using a Third Harmonic Drive on the Grid

In this article, we discuss the use of a third harmonic component to the drive voltage on the grid of an inductive output tube (IOT). High-efficiency IOTs are typically characterized by efficiencies up to 70%–75%. However, the achievement of efficiencies greater than 80% would substantially reduce the operating costs of next-generation accelerators. In order to achieve this goal, we consider the addition of a third harmonic component to the drive signal on the grid of an IOT. The use of a third harmonic drive component in IOT guns has been considered in order to apply such a gun as the injector of radio frequency linear accelerators (RF linacs). Furthermore, we consider that the IOT will be used to provide the rf power to drive RF linacs and apply the third harmonic with the intention of increasing the efficiency of the RF output of the IOT. We consider a model IOT with a 700-MHz resonant cavity and using an annular beam with a voltage of 30 kV, an average current of 6.67 A yielding a perveance of about 1.3 μP. We simulate this IOT using the NEMESIS simulation code which has been successfully validated by comparison with the K5H90W-2 IOT developed by Communications and Power Industries. It is found that the effect of the third harmonic on the efficiency is greatest when the phase of the third harmonic is shifted by radians with respect to the fundamental drive signal and with third harmonic powers greater than about 50% that of the fundamental drive power. For the present example, we show that efficiencies approaching 86% are possible by this means.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-I-65: Estimation of Tagging Efficiency in Pseudo-Continuous Arterial Spin Labeling (pCASL) MRI

Purpose: pCASL was recommended as a potent approach for absolute cerebral blood flow (CBF) quantification in clinical practice. However, uncertainties of tagging efficiency in pCASL remain an issue. This study aimed to estimate tagging efficiency by using short quantitative pulsed ASL scan (FAIR-QUIPSSII) and compare resultant CBF values with those calibrated by using 2D Phase Contrast (PC) MRI. Methods: Fourteen normal volunteers participated in this study. All images, including whole brain (WB) pCASL, WB FAIR-QUIPSSII and single-slice 2D PC, were collected on a 3T clinical MRI scanner with a 8-channel head coil. DeltaM map was calculated by averaging the subtraction of tag/control pairs in pCASL and FAIR-QUIPSSII images and used for CBF calculation. Tagging efficiency was then calculated by the ratio of mean gray matter CBF obtained from pCASL and FAIR-QUIPSSII. For comparison, tagging efficiency was also estimated with 2D PC, a previously established method, by contrast WB CBF in pCASL and 2D PC. Feasibility of estimation from a short FAIR-QUIPSSII scan was evaluated by number of averages required for obtaining a stable deltaM value. Setting deltaM calculated by maximum number of averaging (50 pairs) as reference, stable results were defined within ±10% variation. Results: Tagging efficiencies obtained by 2D PC MRI (0.732±0.092) were significantly lower than which obtained by FAIRQUIPPSSII (0.846±0.097) (P<0.05). Feasibility results revealed that four pairs of images in FAIR-QUIPPSSII scan were sufficient to obtain a robust calibration of less than 10% differences from using 50 pairs. Conclusion: This study found that reliable estimation of tagging efficiency could be obtained by a few pairs of FAIR-QUIPSSII images, which suggested that calibration scan in a short duration (within 30s) was feasible. Considering recent reports concerning variability of PC MRI-based calibration, this study proposed an effective alternative for CBF quantification with pCASL.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

The Effect of Ice Nuclei Efficiency on Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds from Large-Eddy Simulations

The effects of ice nuclei (IN) efficiency on the persistent ice formation in Arctic mixed-phase clouds (AMCs) are investigated using a large-eddy simulation model, coupled to a bin microphysics scheme with a prognostic IN formulation. In the three cases where the IN efficiency is high, ice formation and IN depletion are fast. When the IN concentration is 1 and 10 g -1 , IN are completely depleted and the cloud becomes purely liquid phase before the end of the 24-h simulation. When the IN concentration is 100 g -1 , the IN supply is sufficient but the liquid water is completely consumed so that the cloud dissipates quickly. In the three cases when the IN efficiency is low, ice formation is negligible in the first several hours but becomes significant as the temperature is decreased through longwave cooling. Before the end of the simulation, the cloud is in mixed phase when the IN concentration is 1 and 10 g -1 but dissipates when the IN concentration is 100 g -1 . In the case where two types of IN are considered, ice formation persists throughout the simulation. Analysis shows that as the more efficient IN are continuously removed through ice formation, the less efficient IN gradually nucleate more ice crystals because the longwave cooling decreases the cloud temperature. This mechanism is further illustrated with a simple model. These results indicate that a spectrum of IN efficiency is necessary to maintain the persistent ice formation in AMCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effects of a CFD-improved dimple stepped-lip piston on thermal efficiency and emissions in a medium-duty diesel engine

Diesel piston-bowl shape is a key design parameter that affects spray-wall interactions and turbulent flow development, and in turn affects the engine’s thermal efficiency and emissions. It is hypothesized that thermal efficiency can be improved by enhancing squish-region vortices as they are hypothesized to promote fuel-air mixing, leading to faster heat-release rates. However, the strength and longevity of these vortices decrease with advanced injection timings for typical stepped-lip (SL) piston geometries. Dimple stepped-lip (DSL) pistons enhance vortex formation at early injection timings. Previous engine experiments with such a bowl show 1.4% thermal efficiency gains over an SL piston. However, soot was increased dramatically [SAE 2022-01-0400]. In a previous study, a new DSL bowl was designed using non-combusting computational fluid dynamic simulations. This improved DSL bowl is predicted to promote stronger, more rotationally energetic vortices than the baseline DSL piston: it employs shallower, narrower, and steeper-curved dimples that are placed further out into the squish region. In the current experimental study, this improved bowl is tested in a medium-duty diesel engine and compared against the SL piston over an injection timing sweep at low-load and part-load operating conditions. No substantial thermal efficiency gains are achieved at the early injection timing with the improved DSL design, but soot emissions are lowered by 45% relative to the production SL piston, likely due to improved air utilization and soot oxidation. However, these benefits are lost at late injection timings, where the DSL piston renders a lower thermal efficiency than that of the SL piston. Energy balance analyses show higher wall heat transfer with the DSL piston than with the SL piston despite a 1.3% reduction in the piston surface area. Vortex enhancement may not necessarily lead to improved efficiency as more energetic squish-region vortices can lead to higher convective heat transfer losses.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Theoretically and practically efficient parallel nucleus decomposition

This paper studies the nucleus decomposition problem, which has been shown to be useful in finding dense substructures in graphs. We present a novel parallel algorithm that is efficient both in theory and in practice. Our algorithm achieves a work complexity matching the best sequential algorithm while also having low depth (parallel running time), which significantly improves upon the only existing parallel nucleus decomposition algorithm (Sariyüce et al. , PVLDB 2018). The key to the theoretical efficiency of our algorithm is a new lemma that bounds the amount of work done when peeling cliques from the graph, combined with the use of a theoretically-efficient parallel algorithms for clique listing and bucketing. We introduce several new practical optimizations, including a new multi-level hash table structure to store information on cliques space-efficiently and a technique for traversing this structure cache-efficiently. On a 30-core machine with two-way hyper-threading on real-world graphs, we achieve up to a 55x speedup over the state-of-the-art parallel nucleus decomposition algorithm by Sariyüce et al. , and up to a 40x self-relative parallel speedup. We are able to efficiently compute larger nucleus decompositions than prior work on several million-scale graphs for the first time.

Computer Science↗

DOE OSTI2012

Energy Efficiency Upgrades

The energy efficiency upgrades project at Hardin County General Hospital did not include research nor was it a demonstration project. The project enabled the hospital to replace outdated systems with modern efficient models. Hardin County General Hospital is a 501c3, nonprofit hospital and the sole community provider for Hardin and Pope Counties of Illinois. This project provided much needed equipment and facility upgrades that would not have been possible through locally generated funding. Task 1 was a reroofing of the hospital. The hospital architect designed the replacement to increase the energy efficiency of the hospital roof/ceiling structure. Task 2 was replacement and installation of a new more efficient CT scanner for the hospital. Included in the project was replacement of HVAC equipment for the entire radiological suite. Task 5 was a replacement and installation of a new higher capacity diesel-fueled emergency generator for the hospital replacing a 50+ year old gas-fired generator. Task 7 was the replacement of 50+ year-old walk-in cooler/freezer with a newer, energy efficient model. Task 8 was the replacement of 10+ year-old washing machines in the hospital laundry with higher capacity, energy efficient models. Task 9 was replacement of 50-year old single pane curtain window system with double-pane insulated windows. Additionally, insulation was added around ventilation systems and the curtain wall system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2012

Modifying the organic/electrode interface in Organic Solar Cells (OSCs) and improving the efficiency of solution-processed phosphorescent Organic Light-Emitting Diodes (OLEDs)

Organic semiconductors devices, such as, organic solar cells (OSCs), organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) and organic field-effect transistors (OFETs) have drawn increasing interest in recent decades. As organic materials are flexible, light weight, and potentially low-cost, organic semiconductor devices are considered to be an alternative to their inorganic counterparts. This dissertation will focus mainly on OSCs and OLEDs. As a clean and renewable energy source, the development of OSCs is very promising. Cells with 9.2% power conversion efficiency (PCE) were reported this year, compared to < 8% two years ago. OSCs belong to the so-called third generation solar cells and are still under development. While OLEDs are a more mature and better studied field, with commercial products already launched in the market, there are still several key issues: (1) the cost of OSCs/OLEDs is still high, largely due to the costly manufacturing processes; (2) the efficiency of OSCs/OLEDs needs to be improved; (3) the lifetime of OSCs/OLEDs is not sufficient compared to their inorganic counterparts; (4) the physics models of the behavior of the devices are not satisfactory. All these limitations invoke the demand for new organic materials, improved device architectures, low-cost fabrication methods, and better understanding of device physics. For OSCs, we attempted to improve the PCE by modifying the interlayer between active layer/metal. We found that ethylene glycol (EG) treated poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene): polystyrenesulfonate (PEDOT: PSS) improves hole collection at the metal/polymer interface, furthermore it also affects the growth of the poly(3- hexylthiophene) (P3HT):phenyl-C61-butyric acid methyl ester (PCBM) blends, making the phase segregation more favorable for charge collection. We then studied organic/inorganic tandem cells. We also investigated the effect of a thin LiF layer on the hole-collection of copper phthalocyanine (CuPc)/C70-based small molecular OSCs. A thin LiF layer serves typically as the electron injection layer in OLEDs and electron collection interlayer in the OSCs. However, several reports showed that it can also assist in holeinjection in OLEDs. Here we first demonstrate that it assists hole-collection in OSCs, which is more obvious after air-plasma treatment, and explore this intriguing dual role. For OLEDs, we focus on solution processing methods to fabricate highly efficient phosphorescent OLEDs. First, we investigated OLEDs with a polymer host matrix, and enhanced charge injection by adding hole- and electron-transport materials into the system. We also applied a hole-blocking and electron-transport material to prevent luminescence quenching by the cathode. Finally, we substituted the polymer host by a small molecule, to achieve more efficient solution processed small molecular OLEDs (SMOLEDs); this approach is cost-effective in comparison to the more common vacuum thermal evaporation. All these studies help us to better understand the underlying relationship between the organic semiconductor materials and the OSCs and OLEDs’ performance and will subsequently assist in further enhancing the efficiencies of OSCs and OLEDs. With better efficiency and longer lifetime, the OSCs and OLEDs will be competitive with their inorganic counterparts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2011

A Framework for Comparative Assessments of Energy Efficiency Policy Measures

When policy makers propose new policies, there is a need to assess the costs and benefits of the proposed policy measures, to compare them to existing and alternative policies, and to rank them according to their effectiveness. In the case of equipment energy efficiency regulations, comparing the effects of a range of alternative policy measures requires evaluating their effects on consumers’ budgets, on national energy consumption and economics, and on the environment. Such an approach should be able to represent in a single framework the particularities of each policy measure and provide comparable results. This report presents an integrated methodological framework to assess prospectively the energy, economic, and environmental impacts of energy efficiency policy measures. The framework builds on the premise that the comparative assessment of energy efficiency policy measures should (a) rely on a common set of primary data and parameters, (b) follow a single functional approach to estimate the energy, economic, and emissions savings resulting from each assessed measure, and (c) present results through a set of comparable indicators. This framework elaborates on models that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has used in support of its rulemakings on mandatory energy efficiency standards. In addition to a rigorous analysis of the impacts of mandatory standards, DOE compares the projected results of alternative policy measures to those projected to be achieved by the standards. The framework extends such an approach to provide a broad, generic methodology, with no geographic or sectoral limitations, that is useful for evaluating any type of equipment energy efficiency market intervention. The report concludes with a demonstration of how to use the framework to compare the impacts estimated for twelve policy measures focusing on increasing the energy efficiency of gas furnaces in the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2012

Truck Technology Efficiency Assessment (TTEA) Project (Final Report)

Medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses are responsible for over 28% of the energy used and emissions generated in highway transportation, and class 8 tractor-trailers operating in long-haul and regional cargo transport are responsible for about 75% of all fuel consumed by commercial trucks. The vehicle miles traveled (VMT) for trucks is expected to increase at a rate significantly outpacing passenger VMT growth, which will result in a steady rise in the percentage of energy consumption (and emissions) attributable to trucks over the coming decades. These facts have sparked significant recent interest in truck fuel efficiency in the transportation community. Although fuel economy regulations in the United States have historically focused on passenger cars, recent legislation requiring new standards for fuel economy in medium- and heavy-duty trucks aims to increase the efficiency of trucks as well. The development of regulations for truck fuel efficiency is quite challenging, however, since vehicle usage and configurations vary substantially among the very diverse set of trucking applications. Fuel economy is very strongly linked to the particular drive cycles followed by a given truck, as are the gains in efficiency that can realized by implementing new technologies. As demonstration of this fact, a technology that provides significant fuel efficiency gains for one trucking application may yield little improvement or could even be detrimental to fuel economy in a different trucking application. It is therefore critical that the usage of each application be well understood and carefully evaluated to select the set of technologies that can provide the greatest benefits for each application. Although it is well known that drive cycle data representative of a vehicle or fleet’s usage is crucial for an accurate evaluation of fuel economy benefits or to identify an optimum set of technologies to reduce fuel consumption, detailed drive cycle data of trucks are not readily available for many applications. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has collected a rather extensive set of truck duty cycle data in an effort to characterize the usage of several trucking applications. During the first phase of ORNL’s duty cycle data collection activities, drive cycle measurements were made from six tractor-trailers during normal operations in a regional commercial shipping fleet, operating primarily in the southeastern U.S., for a period of a full year. This data, contained in the Heavy Truck Duty Cycle (HTDC) project database, was analyzed in detail for the current research effort in the Truck Technology Efficiency Assessment project. Based on the high fidelity HTDC duty cycle data, the results of this study are therefore highly representative of tractor-trailer operations for this type of regional, freeway-dominant trucking application.

LaClair, Tim J.↗

DOE OSTI2014

Scoping Study Using Randomized Controlled Trials to Optimize Small Buildings' and Small Portfolios' (SBSP) Energy Efficiency Programs

This report is an initial step in determining whether randomized controlled trials (RCTs) should be used by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), utilities, and others to optimize energy efficiency programs targeting the small buildings and small portfolios (SBSPs) community. This scoping study reviews the use of RCTs to evaluate consumer purchasing and decision-making behaviors and to inform energy-efficient decision making. The scoping study discusses the relevant work, gaps in existing work, and potential value in pursuing further RCTs as related to energy-efficiency decision making in the SBSPs community. Our findings show that the factors that drive consumer behavior toward the purchasing of green products or energy efficiency programs remain complex, requiring further study of the underlying behavior mechanisms leading to environmental concern and action. Although small- and medium-sized businesses may share some purchasing behaviors with individual consumers and large commercial portfolios, important differences should be considered. Factors that are relevant to businesses include firm size to determine economies of scale, regulation, age, and turnover of capital equipment. Marketing approaches to promote green services such as energy efficiency need to go beyond a conventional cost-benefit analysis to include the highlighting of the psychological benefits and delivery of practical benefits, such as energy efficiency.

Guzowski, Leah↗

DOE OSTI2013

Energy-efficient Public Procurement: Best Practice in Program Delivery

This document illustrates the key issues and considerations involved in implementing energy-efficient public procurement. Our primary sources of information have been our partners in the Super Efficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment (SEAD) Initiative Procurement Working Group. Where applicable, we have highlighted specific ways in which working group participants have successfully overcome barriers to delivering effective programs. The following key points emerge from this analysis of programs for energy-efficient public procurement. Lessons for both developed and developing programs are highlighted throughout the guide. 1. Policy: Policy provides the initiative to begin a transition from first cost to life-cycle cost based purchasing methods and culture. Effective policy is well-communicated, establishes accountability from top to bottom of organizations and simplifies the processes necessary to comply. Flexibility and responsiveness are essential in policy development and implementation. Mandatory and voluntary policies may complement one another. 2. Procurement Criteria: Procurement staff must be confident that energy-efficient procurement criteria offer the best long-term value for their organization’s money and represent real environmental gains. Involving multiple stakeholders at the early stages of the criteria creation process can result in greater levels of cooperation from private industry. Criteria should make comparison of products easy for purchasers and require minimal additional calculations. Criteria will need to be regularly updated to reflect market developments. 3. Training: Resources for the creation of training programs are usually very limited, but well-targeted training is necessary in order for a program to be effective. Training must emphasize a process that is efficient for purchasers and simplifies compliance. Purchaser resources and policy must be well designed for training to be effective. Training program development is an excellent opportunity for collaboration amongst public authorities. 4. Procurement Processes: Many tools and guides intended to help buyers comply with energy-efficient procurement policy are designed without detailed knowledge of the procurement process. A deeper understanding of purchasing pathways allows resources to be better directed. Current research by national and international bodies aims to analyze purchasing pathways and can assist in developing future resources.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2012

International Experiences with Quantifying the Co-Benefits of Energy-Efficiency and Greenhouse-Gas Mitigation Programs and Policies

Improving the efficiency of energy production and consumption and switching to lower carbon energy sources can significantly decrease carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and reduce climate change impacts. A growing body of research has found that these measures can also directly mitigate many non-climate change related human health hazards and environmental damage. Positive impacts of policies and programs that occur in addition to the intended primary policy goal are called co-benefits. Policy analysis relies on forecasting and comparing the costs of policy and program implementation and the benefits that accrue to society from implementation. GHG reduction and energy efficiency policies and programs face political resistance in part because of the difficulty of quantifying their benefits. On the one hand, climate change mitigation policy benefits are often global, long-term, and subject to large uncertainties, and subsidized energy pricing can reduce the direct monetary benefits of energy efficiency policies to below their cost. On the other hand, the co-benefits that accrue from these efforts’ resultant reductions in conventional air pollution (such as improved health, agricultural productivity, reduced damage to infrastructure, and local ecosystem improvements) are generally near term, local, and more certain than climate change mitigation benefits and larger than the monetary value of energy savings. The incorporation of co-benefits into energy efficiency and climate mitigation policy and program analysis therefore might significantly increase the uptake of these policies. Faster policy uptake is especially important in developing countries because ongoing development efforts that do not consider co-benefits may lock in suboptimal technologies and infrastructure and result in high costs in future years. Over the past two decades, studies have repeatedly documented that non-climate change related benefits of energy efficiency and fuel conversion efforts, as a part of GHG mitigation strategies, can be from between 30% to over 100% of the costs of such policies and programs strategies. Policy makers around the world are increasingly interested in including both GHG and non-GHG impacts in analyses of energy efficiency and fuel switching policies and programs and a set of methodologies has matured from the efforts of early moving jurisdictions such as the European Union, the United States, and Japan.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2016

What China can learn from international policy experiences to improve industrial energy efficiency and reduce CO 2 emissions?

China’s industrial sector dominates the country’s total energy consumption and energy efficiency in the industry sector is crucial to help China reach its energy and CO 2 emissions reduction goals. There are many energy efficiency policies in China, but the motivation and willingness of enterprises to improve energy efficiency has weakened. This report first identifies barriers that enterprises face to be self-motivated to implement energy efficiency measures. Then, this report reviews international policies and programs to improve energy efficiency and evaluates how these policies helped to address the identified barriers. Lastly, this report draws conclusions and provides recommendations to China in developing policies and programs to motivate enterprises to improve energy efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2016

A Bottom-up Energy Efficiency Improvement Roadmap for China’s Iron and Steel Industry up to 2050

Iron and steel manufacturing is energy intensive in China and in the world. China is the world largest steel producer accounting for around half of the world steel production. In this study, we use a bottom-up energy consumption model to analyze four steel-production and energy-efficiency scenarios and evaluate the potential for energy savings from energy-efficient technologies in China’s iron and steel industry between 2010 and 2050. The results show that China’s steel production will rise and peak in the year 2020 at 860 million tons (Mt) per year for the base-case scenario and 680 Mt for the advanced energy-efficiency scenario. From 2020 on, production will gradually decrease to about 510 Mt and 400 Mt in 2050, for the base-case and advanced scenarios, respectively. Energy intensity will decrease from 21.2 gigajoules per ton (G/t) in 2010 to 12.2 GJ/t and 9.9 GJ/t in 2050 for the base-case and advanced scenarios, respectively. In the near term, decreases in iron and steel industry energy intensity will come from adoption of energy-efficient technologies. In the long term, a shift in the production structure of China’s iron and steel industry, reducing the share of blast furnace/basic oxygen furnace production and increasing the share of electric-arc furnace production while reducing the use of pig iron as a feedstock to electric-arc furnaces will continue to reduce the sector’s energy consumption. We discuss barriers to achieving these energy-efficiency gains and make policy recommendations to support improved energy efficiency and a shift in the nature of iron and steel production in China.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗