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A time-dependent, one-dimensional model of the coupled chemistry and vertical mixing of the atmosphere is used to compute the distribution for many atmospheric constituents of the troposphere and stratosphere. The model treats the photochemistry of the carbon-hydrogen-oxygen-nitrogen system and is (with the exception of H2O) self-consistent in the sense of requiring no assumptions regarding minor constituent distributions.
Calculations utilizing a one-dimensional, time-dependent stratiform cloud model with parameterized microphysics to study the washout and rainout of soluble trace gases are presented. It is shown that the in-cloud concentrations of relatively insoluble species remain essentially unaffected by the presence of cloudwater and rainwater, while the concentrations of highly soluble species are rapidly depleted within the cloud. Due to this depletion it is shown that for highly soluble species the below-cloud scavenging via washout can dominate over in-cloud scavenging via rainout; in-cloud, aqueous-phase cloudwater and rainwater concentrations can differ considerably and, near the cloudbase, cloudwater concentrations can exceed rainwater concentrations by factors of two to ten.
The results of a high-resolution, two-dimensional, time dependent, kinematic dynamo model of the ionospheric magnetic field of Venus are presented. Various one-dimensional models are considered and the two-dimensional model is then detailed. In this model, the two-dimensional magnetic induction equation, the magnetic diffusion-convection equation, is numerically solved using specified plasma velocities. Origins of the vertical velocity profile and of the horizontal velocities are discussed. It is argued that the basic features of the vertical magnetic field profile remain unaltered by horizontal flow effects and also that horizontal plasma flow can strongly affect the magnetic field for altitudes above 300 km.
To study the influence on overall deformations of the time-dependent constitutive properties of fiber-reinforced polymeric matrix composite materials being considered for use in orbiting precision segmented reflectors, simple sandwich beam models are developed. The beam models include layers representing the face sheets, the core, and the adhesive bonding of the face sheets to the core. A three-layer model lumps the adhesive layers with the face sheets or core, while a five-layer model considers the adhesive layers explicitly. The deformation response of the three-layer and five-layer sandwich beam models to a midspan point load is studied. This elementary loading leads to a simple analysis, and it is easy to create this loading in the laboratory. Using the correspondence principle of viscoelasticity, the models representing the elastic behavior of the two beams are transformed into time-dependent models. Representative cases of time-dependent material behavior for the facesheet material, the core material, and the adhesive are used to evaluate the influence of these constituents being time-dependent on the deformations of the beam. As an example of the results presented, if it assumed that, as a worst case, the polymer-dominated shear properties of the core behave as a Maxwell fluid such that under constant shear stress the shear strain increases by a factor of 10 in 20 years, then it is shown that the beam deflection increases by a factor of 1.4 during that time. In addition to quantitative conclusions, several assumptions are discussed which simplify the analyses for use with more complicated material models. Finally, it is shown that the simpler three-layer model suffices in many situations.
This paper presents a stable implicit adaptation algorithm for model reference control. The constraints for stability are found using Lyapunov's second method and do not depend on perfect model following between the system and the reference model. Methods are proposed for satisfying these constraints without estimating the parameters on which the constraints depend.
The steady-state zonally averaged climate is perturbed by adding a latitude-dependent heat source to an energy balance equation of the simplified Budyko-Sellers type. The latitude of the ice edge, which is attached to an isotherm, becomes dependent on the strength of the perturbation. This dependence is given in terms of the well-known iceline-solar constant relation, and the latitude dependence of the perturbed temperature field is then uniquely determined. The exact analytical solution is linearized and expressed in terms of a superposition of line sources at various latitudes. The main features are: (1) The total temperature response is a sum of the direct effect of the perturbation and an indirect ice-albedo effect proportional to the solar ice-edge sensitivity; and (2) the indirect feedback effect produces an enhanced response in polar latitudes.
Based on the works of Ruze (1966) and Vu (1969), a novel mathematical model has been developed to determine efficiently the average power pattern degradations caused by random surface errors. In this model, both nonuniform root mean square (rms) surface errors and nonuniform illumination functions are employed. In addition, the model incorporates the dependence on F/D in the construction of the solution. The mathematical foundation of the model rests on the assumption that in each prescribed annular region of the antenna, the geometrical rms surface value is known. It is shown that closed-form expressions can then be derived, which result in a very efficient computational method for the average power pattern. Detailed parametric studies are performed with these expressions to determine the effects of different random errors and illumination tapers on parameters such as gain loss and sidelobe levels. The results clearly demonstrate that as sidelobe levels decrease, their dependence on the surface rms/wavelength becomes much stronger and, for a specified tolerance level, a considerably smaller rms/wavelength is required to maintain the low sidelobes within the required bounds.
In arid environments, specific microwave signatures have been observed with the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I). For a given diurnal change in surface skin temperature, the corresponding change in the microwave brightness temperature is smaller than expected. With the help of a 1D, time-dependent heat conduction model, this behavior is explained by microwave radiation coming from different depths in the soil, depending on the soil type and on the microwave radiation frequency. Using the eight-times daily estimates of the surface skin temperature by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and a simple Fresnel model, collocated month-long time series of the SSM/I brightness temperatures and the surface skin temperatures give a consistent estimate of the effective microwave emissivity and penetration depth parameters. Results are presented and analyzed for the Sahara and the Arabian Peninsula, for July and November 1992. The case of the Australian desert is also briefly mentioned. Assuming a reasonable thermal diffusivity for the soil in desert areas, the microwave radiation is estimated to come from soil layers down to depths of at least five wavelengths in some locations. Regions where the microwave radiation comes from deeper soil layers also have large microwave emissivity polarization differences and large visible reflectances, suggesting that these areas correspond to sand dune fields.
The purpose of this research is to develop a tool for the mechanical analysis of nickel-base single-crystal superalloys, specifically Rene N4, used in gas turbine engine components. This objective is achieved by developing a rate-dependent anisotropic constitutive model and implementing it in a nonlinear three-dimensional finite-element code. The constitutive model is developed from metallurgical concepts utilizing a crystallographic approach. An extension of Schmid's law is combined with the Bodner-Partom equations to model the inelastic tension/compression asymmetry and orientation-dependence in octahedral slip. Schmid's law is used to approximate the inelastic response of the material in cube slip. The constitutive equations model the tensile behavior, creep response and strain-rate sensitivity of the single-crystal superalloys. Methods for deriving the material constants from standard tests are also discussed. The model is implemented in a finite-element code, and the computed and experimental results are compared for several orientations and loading conditions.
Aerosol-induced absorption of shortwave radiation can modify the climate through local atmospheric heating, which affects lapse rates, precipitation, and cloud formation. Presently, the total amount of aerosol absorption is poorly constrained, and the main absorbing aerosol species (black carbon (BC), organic aerosols (OA), and mineral dust) are diversely quantified in global climate models. As part of the third phase of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) intercomparison initiative (AeroCom phase III), we here document the distribution and magnitude of aerosol absorption in current global aerosol models and quantify the sources of intermodel spread, highlighting the difficulties of attributing absorption to different species. In total, 15 models have provided total present-day absorption at 550 nm (using year 2010 emissions), 11 of which have provided absorption per absorbing species. The multi-model global annual mean total absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) is 0.0054 (0.0020 to 0.0098; 550 nm), with the range given as the minimum and maximum model values. This is 28 % higher compared to the 0.0042 (0.0021 to 0.0076) multi-model mean in AeroCom phase II (using year 2000 emissions), but the difference is within 1 standard deviation, which, in this study, is 0.0023 (0.0019 in Phase II). Of the summed component AAOD, 60 % (range 36 %–84 %) is estimated to be due to BC, 31 % (12 %–49 %) is due to dust, and 11 % (0 %–24 %) is due to OA; however, the components are not independent in terms of their absorbing efficiency. In models with internal mixtures of absorbing aerosols, a major challenge is the lack of a common and simple method to attribute absorption to the different absorbing species. Therefore, when possible, the models with internally mixed aerosols in the present study have performed simulations using the same method for estimating absorption due to BC, OA, and dust, namely by removing it and comparing runs with and without the absorbing species. We discuss the challenges of attributing absorption to different species; we compare burden, refractive indices, and density; and we contrast models with internal mixing to models with external mixing. The model mean BC mass absorption coefficient (MAC) value is 10.1 (3.1 to 17.7) m 2 g −1 (550 nm), and the model mean BC AAOD is 0.0030 (0.0007 to 0.0077). The difference in lifetime (and burden) in the models explains as much of the BC AAOD spread as the difference in BC MAC values. The difference in the spectral dependency between the models is striking. Several models have an absorption Ångstrøm exponent (AAE) close to 1, which likely is too low given current knowledge of spectral aerosol optical properties. Most models do not account for brown carbon and underestimate the spectral dependency for OA.
We study the shock formation and energy dissipation of slow magnetosonic waves in coronal plumes. The wave parameters and the spreading function of the plumes as well as the base magnetic field strength are given by empirical constraints mostly from SOHO/UVCS. Our models show that shock formation occurs at low coronal heights, i.e., within 1.3 bun, depending on the model parameters. In addition, following analytical estimates, we show that scale height of energy dissipation by the shocks ranges between 0.15 and 0.45 Rsun. This implies that shock heating by slow magnetosonic waves is relevant at most heights, even though this type of waves is apparently not a solely operating energy supply mechanism.
Exceedances of critical loads for deposition of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) to different ecosystems were estimated using European and North American ensembles of air quality models, under Phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4), to identify where risk of ecosystem harm is expected to occur based on model deposition estimates. The ensembles were driven by common emissions and lateral boundary condition inputs. Model output was regridded to common North American and Europe 0.125° resolution domains, which were then used to calculate critical load exceedances. New, targeted deposition diagnostics implemented in AQMEII4 allowed an unprecedented level of post-simulation analysis to be carried out and facilitated the identification of specific causes of model-to-model variability in critical load exceedance estimates. New datasets for North American critical loads for acidity for forest soil water and aquatic ecosystems were combined with the ensemble deposition predictions to show a substantial decrease in the area and number of locations in exceedance between 2010 and 2016 (forest soils: 13.2 % to 6.1 %; aquatic ecosystems: 21.2 % to 11.4 %). All models agreed in the direction of the ensemble exceedance change between 2010 and 2016. The North American ensemble also predicted a decrease in both severity and total area in exceedance between the years 2010 and 2016 for eutrophication-impacted ecosystems in the USA (sensitive epiphytic lichen: 81.5 % to 75.8 %). The exceedances for herbaceous community richness also decreased between 2010 and 2016, from 13.9 % to 3.9 %. The uncertainty associated with the North American eutrophication results is high; there were sharp differences between the models in both predictions of total N deposition and the change in N deposition, and hence in the predicted eutrophication exceedances between the two years. The European ensemble was used to predict relatively static exceedances of critical loads with respect to acidification (4.48 % to 4.32 % from 2009 to 2010) while eutrophication exceedance increased slightly (60.2 % to 62.2 %). While most models showed the same changes in critical load exceedances as the ensemble between the two years, the spatial extent and magnitude of exceedances varied significantly between the models. The reasons for this variation were examined in detail by first ranking the relative contribution of different sources of sulphur and nitrogen deposition in terms of deposited mass and model-to-model variability in that deposited mass, followed by their analysis using AQMEII4 diagnostics, along with evaluation of the most recent literature. All models in both the North American and European ensembles had net annual negative biases with respect to observed wet deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium. Diagnostics and recent literature suggest that this bias may stem from insufficient cloud scavenging of aerosols and gases, and may be improved through the incorporation of multiphase hydrometeor scavenging within the modelling frameworks. The inability of North American models to predict the timing of the seasonal peak in wet ammonium ion deposition (observed maximum was in April, while all models predicted a June maximum) may also relate to the need for multiphase hydrometeor scavenging (absence of snow scavenging in all models employed here). High variability in the relative importance of particulate sulphate, nitrate and ammonium deposition fluxes between models was linked to the use of updated particle dry deposition parameterizations in some models. However, recent literature and further development of some of the models within the ensemble suggests these particulate biases may also be ameliorated via the incorporation of multiphase hydrometeor scavenging. Annual sulphur and nitrogen deposition prediction variability was linked to SO 2 and HNO 3 dry deposition parameterizations, and diagnostic analysis showed that the cuticle and soil deposition pathways dominate the deposition mass flux of these species. Further work improving parameterizations for these deposition pathways should reduce variability in model acidifying gas deposition estimates. The absence of base cation chemistry in some models was shown to be a major factor in positive biases in fine mode particulate ammonium and particle nitrate concentrations. Models employing ammonia bidirectional fluxes had both the largest and the smallest magnitude biases, depending on the model and bidirectional flux algorithm employed. A careful analysis of bidirectional flux models suggests that those with poor NH 3 performance may underestimate the extent of NH 3 emissions fluxes from forested areas. Based on these results, an increased process-research focus is therefore recommended for the following model processes and on observations which may assist in model evaluation and improvement: multiphase hydrometeor scavenging combined with updated particle dry deposition, cuticle and soil deposition pathway algorithms for acidifying gases, base cation chemistry and emissions, and NH 3 bidirectional fluxes. Comparisons with satellite observations suggest that oceanic NH 3 emissions sources should be included in regional chemical transport models. The choice of land use database employed within any given model was shown to significantly influence deposition totals in several instances, and employing a common land use database across chemical transport models and critical load calculations is recommended for future work.
The analysis of dependability in large, complex, parallel systems executing real applications or workloads is examined in this thesis. To effectively demonstrate the wide range of dependability problems that can be analyzed through simulation, the analysis of three case studies is presented. For each case, the organization of the simulation model used is outlined, and the results from simulated fault injection experiments are explained, showing the usefulness of this method in dependability modeling of large parallel systems. The simulation models are constructed using DEPEND and C++. Where possible, methods to increase dependability are derived from the experimental results. Another interesting facet of all three cases is the presence of some kind of workload of application executing in the simulation while faults are injected. This provides a completely new dimension to this type of study, not possible to model accurately with analytical approaches.
Column abundance estimates of sodium, and analogously, potassium, in Mercury's exosphere are strongly correlated to the surface reflection model used to calibrate the spectral data and the surface reflection model incorporated into the atmospheric radiative transfer solution. Depending on the surface reflection model parameters used, there can be differences in calibration factors of up to +/- 30% and differences in estimated column abundance of up to +/- 35%. Although the surface reflectance may not be used in the calibration of spacecraft measurements, the interaction between the reflected surface light and the atmospheric brightness remains important.
A coupled thermomechanical subsolidus model of the oceanic lithosphere and asthenosphere is developed which includes vertical heat conduction, a temperature-dependent thermal conductivity, heat advection by a horizontal and vertical mass flow that depends on depth and age, contributions of viscous dissipation or shear heating, a linear or nonlinear deformation law relating shear stress and strain rate, as well as a temperature- and pressure-dependent viscosity. The model requires a constant horizontal velocity and temperature at the surface, but zero horizontal velocity and constant temperature at great depths. The depth- and age-dependent temperature, horizontal and vertical velocities, and viscosity structure of the lithosphere and asthenosphere are determined along with the age-dependent shear stress in those two zones. The ocean-floor topography, oceanic heat flow, and lithosphere thickness are deduced as functions of ocean-floor age; seismic velocity profiles which exhibit a marked low-velocity zone are constructed from the age-dependent geotherms and assumed values of the elastic parameters. It is found that simple boundary-layer cooling determines the thermal structure at young ages, while effects of viscous dissipation become more important at older ages.
This paper reports new developments in the buried crater model that has proved successful in explaining the anomalous strengths and polarizations of the radar echoes from the icy Galilean moons of Jupiter (Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto). The theory is extended to make predictions of the radar cross sections at all points on the surface of the moon, to compute the shape and strength of the power spectra, and to model a wavelength dependence that has been observed.
Simple agent-based models may be useful for investigating air traffic control strategies as a precursory screening for more costly, higher fidelity simulation. Of concern is the ability of the models to capture the essence of the system and provide insight into system behavior in a timely manner and without breaking the bank. The method is put to the test with the development of a model to address situations where capacity is overburdened and potential for propagation of the resultant delay though later flights is possible via flight dependencies. The resultant model includes primitive representations of principal air traffic system attributes, namely system capacity, demand, airline schedules and strategy, and aircraft capability. It affords a venue to explore their interdependence in a time-dependent, dynamic system simulation. The scope of the research question and the carefully-chosen modeling fidelity did allow for the development of an agent-based model in short order. The model predicted non-linear behavior given certain initial conditions and system control strategies. Additionally, a combination of the model and dimensionless techniques borrowed from fluid systems was demonstrated that can predict the system s dynamic behavior across a wide range of parametric settings.
A time-dependent three-dimensional model of the middle and high latitude ionosphere is described. The density distributions of six ion species NO(+), O(2+), N(2+), O(+), N(+), He(+), and the electron and ion temperatures are obtained from a numerical solution of the appropriate continuity, momentum, and energy equations. The equations are solved as a function of height for an inclined magnetic field at E and F region altitudes. The three-dimensional nature of the model is obtained by following flux tubes of plasma as they convect or corotate through a moving neutral atmosphere. The model takes account of field-aligned diffusion, cross-field electrodynamic drifts, thermospheric winds, polar wind escape, energy-dependent chemical reactions, neutral composition changes, ion production due to solar EUV radiation and auroral precipitation, thermal conduction, diffusion-thermal heat flow and local heating and cooling processes. The model also takes account of the offset between the geomagnetic and geographic poles.