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At least 919 records · Page 51

Oklahoma Wellbore Rasters

Seven raster surfaces generated from wellbore information that are thought to influence fluid and or gas migration in the subsurface. Wellbore information was originally retrieved from the IHS Energy Group (current as of April 2015), which is a proprietary, commercial database containing information for most oil and gas wells in the U.S. Processing of wellbore information into gridded cells was performed to provide a graphic solution to overcome the problem of displaying proprietary well data. No proprietary data are displayed or included in the cell maps. These rasters were developed to serve as inputs to the SIMPA (Spatially Weighted Multivariate Probabilistic Assessment) tool. Each raster surface is a derivative product of wellbore dataset. Each raster represents a single wellbore attribute or combination of attributes that speak to the following wellbore characteristics: number of recompletions, year spud, year abandoned, year completed, number of abandoned wells, hole direction, switch from production to injection. The original wellbore information, retrieved from the IHS Energy Group, are in the form of points – these derivative rasters aggregate point attributes to approximately 1,000-meter resolution grid cells. Each raster only includes cells that contain wellbores with the characteristics represented in each surface (i.e. if the wellbores in a given cell have no year abandoned data, the cell is not included in the raster). Since the raster cells combine data from multiple points in many cases, methods such as the average, minimum, and count are used to summarize the information in each cell. The specific operations used to develop each raster are detailed in its metadata.

Abandoned↗

Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming

Projections of changes in Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) surface mass balance indicate a negative contribution to sea level because of the expected increase in precipitation due to the higher moisture holding capacity of warmer air1. Observations over the past decades, however, are unable to constrain the relation between temperature and accumulation changes because both are dominated by strong natural variability. Here we derive a consistent continental-scale increase in accumulation of approximately 5 ± 1% K -1 , through the assessment of ice-core data (spanning the large temperature change during the last deglaciation, 21,000 to 10,000 years ago), in combination with palaeo-simulations, future projections by 35 general circulation models (GCMs), and one high-resolution future simulation. The ice-core data and modelling results for the last deglaciation agree, showing uniform local sensitivities of ~6% K -1 . The palaeo-simulation allows for a continental-scale aggregation of accumulation changes reaching 4.3% K -1 . Despite the different timescales, these sensitivities agree with the multi-model mean of 6.1 ± 2.6% K -1 (GCM projections) and the continental-scale sensitivity of 4.9% K -1 (high-resolution future simulation). Because some of the mass gain of the AIS is offset by dynamical losses induced by accumulation, we provide a response function allowing projections of sea-level fall in terms of continental-scale accumulation changes that compete with surface melting and dynamical losses induced by other mechanisms.

Source record↗

A Reduced-form Cost Model for Prefeasibility Analysis of Hydropower at Non-Powered Dams

This study presents a reduced-form model to support a better understanding of the capacity potential and drivers of costs for hydropower development at U.S. non-powered dams (NPD), which are existing dams that are not currently used for hydropower. With information on nineteen reference sites, a set of reduced-form design and cost equations were estimated to enable rapid assessments of aggregate costs and their components for a large number of NPD sites. The model was then applied to 36,000+ potential U.S. NPD sites using the limited data commonly available. Although the cost estimates span a wide range, there exists a significant amount of U.S. NPD hydropower capacity potential, which are considered cost-competitive in the current market using baseline technologies.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A treatment-effect model to quantify human dimensions of disaster impacts: the case of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

Here, we propose a supervised learning approach using publicly available panel data to statistically quantify the specific manifestations of human impacts of an extreme event, such as changes number of suicides, substance abuse, excess mortality, and unemployment. This allows us to conceptually focus our framework on human impacts and how by attributing them to disaster events along widely accepted psychological, economic, and social dimensions. Our modified treatment-effect model allows counterfactual baseline conditions to be posited for each manifestation from which an aggregated quantitative multi-faceted measure of human impacts can be determined. The developed statistical methodology could be beneficial to policymakers who must allocate scarce resources to those communities in greater need. We illustrate the applicability of our approach using annual and monthly panel data from 2012 to 2018 encompassing the 2017 Hurricane Maria event across various municipalities in Puerto Rico. Our statistical modeling methodology stands apart since (i) it explicitly and more realistically captures the effect of different human-oriented manifestations of an actual event and (ii) it is flexible enough to accommodate individual preferences of various stakeholders in how they assign importance to multiple manifestations of human impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Water and Wastewater Annual Price Escalation Rates for Selected Cities Across the United States: 2023 Edition

This report builds on the 2016 Water and Wastewater Annual Price Escalation Rates for Selected Cities across the United States report prepared by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP). The 2017 report examined annual water and wastewater price escalation rate trends across the U.S. Annual water and wastewater price escalation rates are an important factor when conducting life-cycle cost analyses (LCCA) of water efficiency measures, which is required for Federal agencies. Following the framework of the 2017 report, PNNL used the American Water Works Association (AWWA) water and wastewater rate surveys to gather historical rate data for water and wastewater utilities in the US, which were used to calculate a sample set of water and wastewater annual price escalation rates (Figure E.1). An annual price escalation rate was calculated for 113 water utilities and 76 wastewater utilities that reported at least two AWWA surveys across the past 13 years (i.e., 2008 to 2021) and at least a five-year range between those two surveys. Statistical trends in the annual price escalation rates are also provided by the seven regions identified in Figure E.1. In the 2017 report, the average annual price escalation for the surveyed sample of water and wastewater rates were 3.0% and 3.2%, respectively. This report also calculated aggregate average annual price escalation rates for the surveyed sample of water and wastewater utilities to be 3.1% and 2.7%, respectively. These escalation rates were based on 87 water utilities and 46 wastewater utilities that reported data in at least two AWWA surveys with at least a five-year range between those two surveys and reported at least one AWWA survey in 2019 or 2021. Among water utilities, the highest average annual price escalation rate was 8.8%, and the highest average annual water de-escalation rate was -2.0%. And for wastewater utilities, the highest average annual wastewater price escalation rate was 10.2%, and the highest average annual wastewater de-escalation rate was -2.3%.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Real-time streamflow forecasting: AI vs. Hydrologic insights

In this paper, we propose a set of simple benchmarks for the evaluation of data-based models for real-time streamflow forecasting, such as those developed with sophisticated Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms. The benchmarks are also data-based and provide context to judge incremental improvements in the performance metrics from the more complicated approaches. The benchmarks include temporal and spatial persistence, persistence corrected for baseflow and streamflow, as well as river distance weighted runoff obtained from space-time distributed rainfall. In the development of the benchmarks, we use basic hydrologic insights such as flow aggregation by the river network, scale-dependence in basin response, streamflow partitioning into quick flow and baseflow, water travel time, and rainfall averaging by the basin width function. The study uses 140 streamflow gauges in Iowa that cover a range of basin scales between 7 and 37,000 km 2 . The data cover 17 years. This work demonstrates that the proposed benchmarks can provide good performance according to several commonly used metrics. For example, streamflow forecasting at half of the test locations across years achieves a Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) score of 0.6 or higher at one-day ahead lead time, and 20% of cases reach the KGE of 0.8 or higher. The proposed benchmarks are easy to implement and should prove useful for developers of data-based as well as physics-based hydrologic models and real-time data assimilation techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Drought Impacts on Hydroelectric Power Generation in the Western United States

The Western United States experiences large fluctuations in rain and snowfall from year to year, affecting river flows and reservoir levels throughout the region. This interannual variability in water resources leaves a strong signature on total annual energy generated by the region’s fleet of hydroelectric dams. In a wet year, like 2011, hydroelectric power can meet 30 percent of annual western electricity demand. That contribution can drop below 20 percent during severe drought years. Characterizing the contribution of hydroelectric power to the western generation portfolio during drought is crucial to understanding the resilience of the hydropower sector to climate-related risk, both now and in the future. This report analyzes the impacts of historical western droughts on hydroelectric power production by combining two decades’ worth of annual generation—recorded at more than 600 hydroelectric power plants—with historical climate data developed for distinct hydropower subregions of the West. The most extreme impacts of drought on hydroelectric power are found at individual dams where reservoir levels are so low that released water and thus generation becomes severely restricted. These isolated cases often receive widespread media attention, leading to a common misconception that hydroelectric power is an unreliable technology whose role will diminish over time as the western climate produces longer and more severe droughts. Yet, when aggregated to the scale of the West, the observational records of hydropower generation reveal a different story. Even during the most severe droughts experienced since the turn of the century, the western hydropower fleet sustained more than 80% of its typical annual generation. Observational data indicate that drought in 2021 led to the worst year for hydropower generation in the West since 2001, with total generation approximately 16 percent below the 21st century two-decade average. The year 2021 was particularly severe in California (second worst hydro year of last two decades, ~48 percent below average) and Oregon (worst hydro year of last two decades), while generation in Washington and Idaho was affected to a lesser degree (~12 percent below average for combined region). The year 2001 remains the year of lowest western hydropower generation of the twenty-first century so far, owing to extreme drought in the Pacific Northwest, where about two-thirds of western hydropower capacity is located. The primary reason for this relative stability is the diversity of weather across the West; drought rarely impairs hydroelectric power across all river basins at the same time.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Comparative Hydrophobic Core Dynamics Between Wild‐Type Amyloid‐β Fibrils, Glutamate‐3 Truncation, and Serine‐8 Phosphorylation

Abstract Post‐translational modifications (PTMs) of amyloid‐β (Aβ) species are implicated in the modulation of overall toxicities and aggregation propensities. We investigated the internal dynamics in the hydrophobic core of the truncated ΔE3 mutant fibrils of Aβ 1–40 and compared them with prior and new data for wild‐type fibrils as well as with phosphorylated S8 fibrils. Deuteron static solid‐state NMR techniques, spanning line‐shape analysis, longitudinal relaxation, and chemical exchange saturation transfer methods, were employed to assess the rotameric jumps of several methyl‐bearing and aromatic groups in the core of the fibrils. Taken together, the results indicate the rather significant influence of the PTMs on the hydrophobic core dynamics, which propagates far beyond the local site of the chemical modification. The phosphorylated S8 fibrils display an overall rigidifying of the core based on the higher activation barriers of motions than the wild‐type fibrils, whereas the ΔE3 fibrils induce a broader variety of changes, some of which are thermodynamic in nature rather than the kinetic ones.

Vugmeyster, Liliya↗

Alzheimer's disease and alpha-synuclein pathology in the olfactory bulbs of infants, children, teens and adults ≤ 40 years in Metropolitan Mexico City. APOE4 carriers at higher risk of suicide accelerate their olfactory bulb pathology

Highlights: • Air pollution targets olfactory bulbs in young city dwellers. • Olfactory bulb hyperphosphorylated tau and Lewy neurites are present in Mexico City toddlers. • APOE4 carriers accelerate their OB pathology and have 4.7 times higher suicide odds v APOE3. • Olfactory testing may aid in identifying young persons at high risk for neurodegenerative disease. • Early neuroprotective interventions in PM{sub 2.5} and CDNP's exposed individuals ≤ 20 years are critical. There is growing evidence that air pollution is a risk factor for a number of neurodegenerative diseases, most notably Alzheimer's (AD) and Parkinson's (PD). It is generally assumed that the pathology of these diseases arises only later in life and commonly begins within olfactory eloquent pathways prior to the onset of the classical clinical symptoms. The present study demonstrates that chronic exposure to high levels of air pollution results in AD- and PD-related pathology within the olfactory bulbs of children and relatively young adults ages 11 months to 40 years. The olfactory bulbs (OBs) of 179 residents of highly polluted Metropolitan Mexico City (MMC) were evaluated for AD- and alpha-synuclein-related pathology. Even in toddlers, hyperphosphorylated tau (hTau) and Lewy neurites (LN) were identified in the OBs. By the second decade, 84% of the bulbs exhibited hTau (48/57), 68% LNs and vascular amyloid (39/57) and 36% (21/57) diffuse amyloid plaques. OB active endothelial phagocytosis of red blood cell fragments containing combustion-derived nanoparticles (CDNPs) and the neurovascular unit damage were associated with myelinated and unmyelinated axonal damage. OB hTau neurites were associated mostly with pretangle stages 1a and 1b in subjects ≤ 20 years of age, strongly suggesting olfactory deficits could potentially be an early guide of AD pretangle subcortical and cortical hTau. APOE4 versus APOE3 carriers were 6–13 times more likely to exhibit OB vascular amyloid, neuronal amyloid accumulation, alpha-synuclein aggregates, hTau neurofibrillary tangles, and neurites. Remarkably, APOE4 carriers were 4.57 times more likely than non-carriers to die by suicide. The present findings, along with previous data that over a third of clinically healthy MMC teens and young adults exhibit low scores on an odor identification test, support the concept that olfactory testing may aid in identifying young people at high risk for neurodegenerative diseases. Moreover, results strongly support early neuroprotective interventions in fine particulate matter (PM{sub 2.5}) and CDNP's exposed individuals ≤ 20 years of age, and the critical need for air pollution control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data-driven acoustic measurement of moisture content in flowing biomass

Measuring the moisture content in flowing biomass is critical to processes such as liquid biofuel conversion, such as biogasoline, biodiesel, bio jet kerosene, etc. However, biomass tends to flow in aggregates, which results in significant inhomogeneities in the amount of biomass flowing in front of a sensor at a given time, and there can be significant overlap in the material properties of dry vs wet biomass, leading to poor signal-to-noise ratio. We present a technique for identifying biomass moisture content using a series of acoustic pitch-catch measurements to quantify the sound speed and acoustic amplitude through the biomass, in conjunction with classical machine learning techniques, including Naive Bayes, Random Forest, and K-Nearest Neighbors classification. We amplify the differences between the acoustic measurements in different moisture levels by collecting a series of pulse-echo measurements, which we sort in order of ascending sound speed. We test the accuracy of the technique on experimentally-prepared batches of corn stover biomass with specified moisture levels and measure the average error in the estimated moisture level as a function of the number of pitch-catch measurements used. We observe average estimation errors as low as 6.7% by increasing the number of measurements and optimizing the hyperparameters. This work presents a novel method determining moisture content in flowing biomass with inhomogeneous flow. Additionally, this technique has application in optimizing biomass conversion processes, as well as other fields including, paper production, natural fiber processing, and mineral extraction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Emerging multiscale insights on microbial carbon use efficiency in the land carbon cycle

Microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) affects the fate and storage of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems, but its global importance remains uncertain. Accurately modeling and predicting CUE on a global scale is challenging due to inconsistencies in measurement techniques and the complex interactions of climatic, edaphic, and biological factors across scales. The link between microbial CUE and soil organic carbon relies on the stabilization of microbial necromass within soil aggregates or its association with minerals, necessitating an integration of microbial and stabilization processes in modeling approaches. In this perspective, we propose a comprehensive framework that integrates diverse data sources, ranging from genomic information to traditional soil carbon assessments, to refine carbon cycle models by incorporating variations in CUE, thereby enhancing our understanding of the microbial contribution to carbon cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model of photoemission and framework for relating quantum efficiency to stoichiometry

Simulating the quantum efficiency (QE) from photocathodes used in accelerators and photoinjectors requires accounting for the properties of the photoemissive material, the optical properties, scattering coefficients, and doping concentrations of which are dependent upon the stoichiometry. We present a rapid and flexible optical model that can be used to investigate the consequences of changes in the dielectric properties and their impact on the QE through such factors as reflectivity and laser penetration depth. Differences in materials can then be characterized by changes to parameters used to evaluate the dielectric function in a Lorentz–Drude–Resonant model. A method to characterize data is motivated by the example of copper and vetted by application to an exact analytical model. The effects of changes in parameters describing the resonant terms, which aggregate in the visible and UV regions of the spectrum, are shown.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Single-pixel interior filling function approach for detecting and correcting errors in particle tracking

We present a general method for detecting and correcting biases in the outputs of particle-tracking experiments. Our approach is based on the histogram of estimated positions within pixels, which we term the single-pixel interior filling function (SPIFF). We use the deviation of the SPIFF from a uniform distribution to test the veracity of tracking analyses from different algorithms. Unbiased SPIFFs correspond to uniform pixel filling, whereas biased ones exhibit pixel locking, in which the estimated particle positions concentrate toward the centers of pixels. Although pixel locking is a well-known phenomenon, we go beyond existing methods to show how the SPIFF can be used to correct errors. Here, the key is that the SPIFF aggregates statistical information from many single-particle images and localizations that are gathered over time or across an ensemble, and this information augments the single-particle data. We explicitly consider two cases that give rise to significant errors in estimated particle locations: undersampling the point spread function due to small emitter size and intensity overlap of proximal objects. In these situations, we show how errors in positions can be corrected essentially completely with little added computational cost. Additional situations and applications to experimental data are explored in SI Appendix. In the presence of experimental-like shot noise, the precision of the SPIFF-based correction achieves (and can even exceed) the unbiased Cramér–Rao lower bound. We expect the SPIFF approach to be useful in a wide range of localization applications, including single-molecule imaging and particle tracking, in fields ranging from biology to materials science to astronomy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Hierarchical Architecture for Transactive Wholesale-Retail Market Integration

Transactive control strategies for managing real-time energy consumption have been under study for a number of years. This work investigates a hierarchical control framework for such a system. This framework consist of two control layers to aggregate and reflect the flexibility of demand assets in the wholesale markets. Computation at each layer and communication across layers is designed to be minimal. The minimization of data exchange is done through demand curve approximation. To manage these two approximations, two intermediate layer dispatch strategies are compared: price-priority and quantity-priority. The price-priority dispatch results in significant differences between the wholesale cleared load and the actual retail load while the quantity-priority dispatch manages load much better at the cost of introducing uncertainty into the business cases of the intermediate layers.

Marinovici, Laurentiu D.↗

Boundary Effects in the Diffusion of New Products on Cartesian Networks

The Role of Boundaries in the Spreading of Solar Peer effects by neighbors play a key role in the spreading of residential solar. Thus, people are more likely to install a solar system on their roof if some of their neighbors have already done so. Because people who live near the municipality boundary have fewer neighbors, does this imply that they are less likely to adopt solar? In “Boundary Effects in the Diffusion of New Products on Cartesian Networks,” Fibich, Levin, and Gillingham analyze this problem analytically using the Bass model on two-dimensional networks and empirically using data on installations of solar systems. They show that boundaries have a significant impact on the adoption of residential units near the municipality boundary. Their effect on the aggregate adoption in the municipality, however, is negligible.

Business & Economics↗

Load Profiles Data for the EVI-RoadTrip Web Tool

The dataset contains EVI-RoadTrip outputs, minute-by-minute load profiles in kW for each station in the simulation based on assumed utilization and network density. The load profiles are aggregated to lower spatial resolution (e.g., state-level, corridor-level) by summation of all station loads associated with the respective geography. This results in a load profile for each scenario that summarizes the corridor's, state's, or county's load profile in minute-level resolution.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

High Data Rate Detector for Neutron Reflectometer

Neutron reflectometers are a class of instruments that employ neutron diffraction for measuring the structure of thin films. The technique provides valuable information over a wide variety of scientific and technological applications including chemical aggregation, polymer and surfactant adsorption, structure of thin film magnetic systems, biological membranes, etc. Such instruments are considered to be one of the most important in the neutron science field. Newer facilities place growing demands on the count rate capability of the specialized neutron detectors required. Proportional Technologies completed the Phase I effort successfully with a fully operational prototype detector built at PTI and tested at the CG1A neutron beam of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR, Oak Ridge, TN). The prototype incorporated 3 panels of 14 copper-walled cells each (total of 42 cells), each lined with 1.3 μm of 10B4C. The detector was tested for efficiency, spatial resolution, count rate linearity, uniformity, overlap and scatter. Testing revealed stable operation, uniform response across cells, and successful resolution of individual cells. The maximum count rate tested in the 3 panels combined was 590 kHz, limited by a deadtime of about 1 μs in the digital electronics. The local rate measured in a single cell showed no deadtime losses up to 810 cps/mm2, indicating that a rate of 20 Mhz can be supported in the 308-cell detector planned for Phase II.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

New Matrix Framework to Determine Carbon Storage Technical Viability

Carbon storage is an integral component of reducing CO2 emissions. Research over the past two decades has developed workflows for volume assessments and economic project feasibility, providing necessary and useful tools to progress geologic carbon storage (GCS) projects. These workflows and assessments have focused primarily on determining the in-situ storage resource based on geologic and engineering parameters and do not integrate subsurface characterization with surface conditions, social factors, and environmental factors that may pose a benefit or impediment to the implementation of GCS. Furthermore, the data required to assess the technical viability of GCS are myriad and disparate. There is no current methodology that identifies technical viability criteria and systematically informs how to aggregate these factors for spatial assessments. To address this gap, the National Energy Technology Laboratory has developed a Carbon Storage Technical Viability Approach (CS TVA) Matrix that incorporates a wide variety of factors to inform and accelerate screening for GCS site selection in the United States.

Mulhern, Julia↗