Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 919 records · Page 51
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1995

Heterogeneous reactions of HNO3(g) + NaCl(s) yields HCl(g) + NaNO3(s) and N2O5(g) + NaCl(s) yields ClNO2(g) + NaNO3(s)

The heterogeneous reactions of HNO3(g) + NaCl(s) yields HCl(g) + NaNO3(s) (eq 1) and N2O5(g) + NaCl(s) yields ClNO2(g) + NaNO3(S) (eq 2) were investigated over the temperature range 223-296 K in a flow-tube reactor coupled to a quadrupole mass spectrometer. Either a chemical ionization mass spectrometer (CIMS) or an electron-impact ionization mass spectrometer (EIMS) was used to provide suitable detection sensitivity and selectivity. In order to mimic atmospheric conditions, partial pressures of HNO3 and N2O5 in the range 6 x 10(exp -8) - 2 x 10(exp -6) Torr were used. Granule sizes and surface roughness of the solid NaCl substrates were determined by using a scanning electron microscope. For dry NaCl substrates, decay rates of HNO3 were used to obtain gamma(1) = 0.013 +/- 0.004 (1sigma) at 296 K and > 0.008 at 223 K, respectively. The error quoted is the statistical error. After all corrections were made, the overall error, including systematic error, was estimated to be about a factor of 2. HCl was found to be the sole gas-phase product of reaction 1. The mechanism changed from heterogeneous reaction to predominantly physical adsorption when the reactor was cooled from 296 to 223 K. For reaction 2 using dry salts, gamma(2) was found to be less than 1.0 x 10(exp -4) at both 223 and 296 K. The gas-phase reaction product was identified as ClNO2 in previous studies using an infrared spectrometer. An enhancement in reaction probability was observed if water was not completely removed from salt surfaces, probably due to the reaction of N2O5(g) + H2O(s) yields 2HNO3(g). Our results are compared with previous literature values obtained using different experimental techniques and conditions. The implications of the present results for the enhancement of the hydrogen chloride column density in the lower stratosphere after the El Chichon volcanic eruption and for the chemistry of HCl and HNO3 in the marine troposphere are discussed.

Leu, Ming-Taun↗
DOE OSTI2022

Oceanographic Conditions. 2007 - 2040. North Slope Alaska.

Complete representations of oceanographic conditions require spatial and temporal information about the significant wave height (Hs), peak wave period (Tp), wind speed, wind direction, wave direction, water level, salinity, and temperature. This data develops location-independent typologies to reduce the number of boundary conditions needed to assess nearshore oceanographic environments in both a Historical (2007-2019) and Future (2020-2040) timespan along the Alaskan North Slope. Wave information for both time spans were generated from WaveWatch III, Delft3D-FLOW, and Delft3D-WAVE simulations forced by wind conditions from reanalysis data (e.g., ASRv2 and ERA5) for the historical simulations while projected conditions were obtained from downscaled GFDL-CM3 forced under RCP8.5 conditions. Salinity was generated from GOFS 3.1 for the years between 2008-2015 and skin temperature of the ocean was obtained from ASRv2 reanalysis data for the years between 2007-2016. To identify generalized oceanographic typologies, K-means clustering was applied to the energy-weighted joint-probability distribution of Hs and Tp at six sites along the North Slope of Alaska. Distributions of wave and wind direction, wind speed, and water level associated with locaiton-indepndent centroids were assigned single values to describe a reduced order, typological rendition of offshore oceanographic conditions. These final typologies and their constituent data are provided here and can be used to evaluate the change in ocean energy over the next two decades in response to climate change and provide insight into expected consequences such as coastal erosion and flooding. A full assessment of the findings and techniques developed can be found in: Eymold, W.K., Flanary, C., Erikson, L., Nederhoff, K., Chartrand, C.C., Jones, C., Kasper, J., and Bull, D.L. Typological Representation of the Offshore Oceanographic Environment along the Alaskan North Slope. Continental Shelf Research (2022). 10.1016/j.csr.2022.104795

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

An investigation of the neutral and ionized gas in M16

An attempt is made to understand the physical and kinematic conditions in the M16 active star formation site, by means of mapping observations of neutral and ionized hydrogen and observations of (C-12)O from selected positions within the H II regions. The 21-cm maps suggest that at least two neutral clouds are present in the M16 complex, one of which is likely to be the remains of the cloud in which star formation initially occurred, and the other is probably the cold gas remaining from a disrupted cloud edge where the ionization front has crossed the cloud-intercloud boundary. Multislit echelle spectra of the H-alpha line are obtained to determine the physical conditions within the ionized gas, and H-alpha maps show that the ionized gas is systematically blueshifted in the east and splits into two streams in the southwest.

Mufson, S. L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Verification and validation of the open-source plasma fluid code: Zapdos

Zapdos is an open-source finite element plasma fluid solver based on the MOOSE multiphysics framework. This paper outlines Zapdos verification, benchmarking, and validation efforts for 1D and 2D RF capacitively coupled plasma discharge models for mid-range pressures (0.1 - 1 Torr). The verification process involved using the method of manufactured solutions to assess Zapdos spatial and temporal error convergence. L2 errors ranged from 10 -2 to 10 -4 , while the convergence’s slope were in agreement with the predicted slopes for the tested variable and time integration orders. The benchmarking process involved comparisons to previously results from the validated finite element code, LSODI. These works included 1D and 2D simulations for a range of plasma parameters (densities, temperatures, voltage, etc.). For the 1D cases, Zapdos and LSODI results were in very good agreement. In the 2D cases, variable behaviors matched, with slight discrepancies in peak values. The validation process involved comparisons to experimental works including electron density measurements by microwave interferometry and metastable density measurements by planar laser-induced fluorescence imaging. Results shown reasonable agreement at higher pressure, with results starting to diverge at low pressures. Furthermore, probable causes for this diverges are the limitation of the fluid assumption for plasmas at low pressure, or the need for more robust boundary conditions. Overall, Zapdos shown reasonable results for the verification, benchmarking, and validation efforts, and Zapdos can be downloaded at https://github.com/shannon-lab/zapdos.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A tool for assessing demand side management and operating strategies for isolated microgrids

Globally, power system operators are exploring ways to leverage the capabilities of smart meters to implement fine-grained demand side management (DSM). Here this paper presents a new simulation tool to evaluate operating strategies for smart-meter-enabled (SME) islanded microgrids being advanced for sustainable rural electrification in emerging economies. Based on MATLAB/Simulink, the tool's component-level models of small microgrids can be easily configured. Alternative rule-based operating strategies are implemented with controllable supply and storage components as well as other components driven by external factors (e.g., weather and time of day). To account for the wide range of possible operating conditions in real-world applications, statistical metrics can be evaluated using Monte Carlo (MC) methods based on user-defined, time-dependent probability distributions for demands, supplies, and environmental variables. Features of the tool are demonstrated with case studies for a representative microgrid in rural Rwanda.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Review of the August 1972 and March 1989 (Allen) Space Weather Events: Can We Learn Anything New From Them?

Abstract Updated summaries of the August 1972 and March 1989 space weather events have been constructed. The features of these two events are compared to the Carrington 1859 event and a few other major space weather events. It is concluded that solar active regions release energy in a variety of forms (X‐rays, EUV photons, visible light, coronal mass ejection (CME) plasmas and fields) and they in turn can produce other energetic effects (solar energetic particles (SEPs), magnetic storms) in a variety of ways. It is clear that there is no strong one‐to‐one relationship between these various energy sinks. The energy is often distributed differently from one space weather event to the next. Concerning SEPs accelerated at interplanetary CME (ICME) shocks, it is concluded that the Fermi mechanism associated with quasi‐parallel shocks is relatively weak and that the gradient drift mechanism (electric fields) at quasi‐perpendicular shocks will produce harder spectra and higher fluxes. If the 4 August 1972 intrinsic magnetic cloud condition (southward interplanetary magnetic field instead of northward) and the interplanetary Sun to 1 au conditions were different, a 4 August 1972 magnetic storm and magnetospheric dawn‐to‐dusk electric fields substantially larger than the Carrington event would have occurred. Under these special interplanetary conditions, a Miyake et al. (2012), https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11123 ‐like extreme SEP event may have been formed. The long duration complex 1989 storm was probably greater than the Carrington storm in the sense that the total ring current particle energy was larger.

Tsurutani, Bruce T.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Pacific Northwest heat extremes and wildfire risks induced by the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

The occurrence of extreme hot and dry summer conditions in the Pacific Northwest region of North America (PNW) has been known to be influenced by climate modes of variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other variations in tropospheric circulation such as stationary waves and blocking. However, the extent to which the subseasonal remote tropical driver influences summer heat extremes and fire weather conditions across the PNW remains elusive. Our investigation reveals that the occurrence of heat extremes and associated fire-conducive weather conditions in the PNW is significantly heightened during the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) phases 6-7, by ~50–120% relative to the seasonal probability. The promotion of these heat extremes is primarily attributed to the enhanced diabatic heating over the tropical central-to-eastern North Pacific, which generates a wave train traveling downstream toward North America, resulting in a prominent high-pressure system over the PNW. The ridge, subsequently, promotes surface warming over the region primarily through increased surface radiative heating and enhanced adiabatic warming. The results suggest a potential pathway to improving subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions of heatwaves and wildfire risks in the PNW by improving the representation of BSISO heating over the tropical-to-eastern North Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ultra-Wideband Communications: Interference Challenges and Solutions

The idea of ultra-wideband (UWB) communications for short ranges (up to a few tens of meters) has been around for nearly three decades. However, despite significant efforts by the industry, UWB deployment has not yet reached its predicted potential. This article, thus, seeks to rectify this situation by providing a practical examination of UWB interference conditions. Through a spectrum survey of today's wireless environments, we explore the interference that UWB devices may face from a perspective of outage probability in both high- and low-rate configurations. We find that by suppressing interference, the outage probability can be reduced by one or more orders of magnitude. In the non-line-of-sight channels, in particular, we find that both interference suppression and bandwidth expansion are required to support the minimum data rates suggested in the IEEE802.15.4 series of standards. Here, we connect these findings to a recently proposed UWB signaling method based on filter banks and show this method fulfills the above requirements for implementing effective UWB systems.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quality-Controlled Meteorological Data from the Flood Control District of Maricopa County (FCDMC) Network, Phoenix, Arizona (1987-2024)

This dataset contains 15- or 30-minute interval meteorological data from the Flood Control District of Maricopa County (FCDMC), Arizona, USA, covering eight key variables across multiple sensor stations between 1987 and 2024. Each variable is stored as a separate CSV file, containing time-series data that have undergone rigorous quality control (QC) procedures and, where appropriate, short-gap interpolation for consistency. The quality control (QC) pipeline consisted of four sequential tests: (1) a range test to ensure all values fall within physically realistic limits, (2) a step test to identify abrupt and implausible changes between consecutive records, (3) a proximity test that validates flagged values from step test using data from nearby stations and exceedance probability thresholds, and (4) a persistence test to detect and remove periods of unrealistically constant readings. These thresholds were calibrated to Arizona’s environmental conditions and sensor specifications. After QC, short gaps (≤2 hours) were linearly interpolated to ensure consistent temporal resolution, except for wind variables. Due to a major upgrade in FCDMC’s data transmission system, only ALERT-2 protocol data (2016–2024) for wind variables are included; earlier ALERT-1 data were excluded because of irregular sampling and high missing rates. This dataset supports regional climate and infrastructure resilience studies by providing standardized, high-resolution meteorological data for the greater Phoenix metropolitan area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

Some questions of an optimum probability synthesis of dynamic metalworking machine systems

Attempts were made to develop a dynamic metal working machine tool system using probability information on external factors and independent disturbances of the parameters. The problem was optimized in two stages: (1) creation of mathematical models under conditions determined by input influences, and (2) processing the results of calculations obtained on such models. Data were obtained on the patterns of distribution of dynamic quality characteristics of the tool, vibration frequencies and amplitudes, attenuation coefficients, and duration of a transition process. These data were obtained using a digital computer, statistical test methods, or logical possibility trees.

Dobrynin, S. A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Can spores survive in interstellar space?

Experimental evidence is presented for the effects of very low temperature and UV radiation, characteristic of the interstellar medium, on the survival of bacteria. In the most general space environment, 10 percent survival times are only of the order of hundreds of years, too short for panspermia to work. In a substantial fraction of space within dark clouds, however, it is shown that, even with conservative figures, survival times as long as millions to tens of millions of years are attainable. In such conditions, clouds could transport organisms from one solar system to another in times significantly shorter than the mean survival time. This occurs with significant probability.

Weber, P.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Modeling and equalization of nonlinear bandlimited satellite channels

The problem of modeling and equalization of a nonlinear satellite channel is considered. The channel is assumed to be bandlimited and exhibits both amplitude and phase nonlinearities. A discrete time satellite link is modeled under both uplink and downlink white Gaussian noise. Under conditions of practical interest, a simple and computationally efficient design technique for the minimum mean square error linear equalizer is presented. The bit error probability and some numerical results for a binary phase shift keyed (BPSK) system demonstrate that the proposed equalization technique outperforms standard linear receiver structures.

Konstantinides, K.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A method for modeling bias in a person's estimates of likelihoods of events

It is of practical importance in decision situations involving risk to train individuals to transform uncertainties into subjective probability estimates that are both accurate and unbiased. We have found that in decision situations involving risk, people often introduce subjective bias in their estimation of the likelihoods of events depending on whether the possible outcomes are perceived as being good or bad. Until now, however, the successful measurement of individual differences in the magnitude of such biases has not been attempted. In this paper we illustrate a modification of a procedure originally outlined by Davidson, Suppes, and Siegel (3) to allow for a quantitatively-based methodology for simultaneously estimating an individual's subjective utility and subjective probability functions. The procedure is now an interactive computer-based algorithm, DSS, that allows for the measurement of biases in probability estimation by obtaining independent measures of two subjective probability functions (S+ and S-) for winning (i.e., good outcomes) and for losing (i.e., bad outcomes) respectively for each individual, and for different experimental conditions within individuals. The algorithm and some recent empirical data are described.

Nygren, Thomas E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Shield sizing and response equations

A consolidated list is presented of meteoroid debris shield equations which have been given in the referenced memorandums. In some cases, equations have been updated; thus, this memorandum supersedes reference 1. The equations are presented in two parts: (1) shield sizing equations which are used to produce preliminary estimates of shielding weights; and (2) response equations to describe the impact conditions (projectile size as a function of velocity, density, and impact angle) causing failure of a given shield that are to be used for probability analyses (such as in the modified BUMPER program). Specific equations are given that are applicable for the following types of shields: aluminum Whipple shields; Nextel multishock (MS) shields; and mesh double bumper (MDB) shields. These equations will be updated in the future as warranted by the results of additional HVI tests, analyses, and shield modeling.

Christiansen, Eric L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Interference effects on Space Station Freedom and space shuttle orbiter Ku-band downlinks

The space shuttle orbiter (SSO) and Ku-band single access return (KSAR) link and the Space Station Freedom (SSF) KSAR link via the tracking and data relay satellite system (TDRSS) use the same carrier frequency. The interference between spacecraft is minimized by opposite antenna polarizations and by TDRSS antenna beam pointing, but if the SSF and SSO are in close proximity, it is expected that mutual interference will be significant. Recently, Tsang and Su (1988, 1989) simulated the mutual interference effects, using a practical nonlinear bandlimited channel. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that a simplified (i.e., linear band-limited channel) analytical approach will yield adequate accuracy for the expected range of operating conditions. Relative degradation in bit energy-to-thermal noise power spectral density ratio to achieve a 10 exp -5 coded bit-error-probability is determined to be 4 dB for the Ku-band SSO-to-TDRS I-channel return link with a 4.5 dB effective signal-to-interference total power ratio (S/I) when the Ku-band SSF-to-TDRS return link interferes, whereas Su's simulation yields approximately 5 dB degradation. For the Ku-band SSF-to-TDRS return link, both analysis and simulation results yield a relative signal degradation of 0.4 dB at the effective S/I = 21.6 dB. In conclusion, interference on the Ku-band SSO-to-TDRS I-channel return link is significant, but on the Ku-band SSF-to-TDRS return link it is negligible.

Kwon, Hyuck M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Flowfield characteristics in a liquid propellant rocket

Measurements of LOX drop size and velocity in a uni-element liquid propellant rocket chamber are presented. The use of the Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer in obtaining temporally averaged probability density functions of drop size in a harsh rocket environment has been demonstrated. Complementary measurements of drop size/velocity for simulants under cold flow conditions are also presented. The drop size/velocity measurements made for combusting and cold flow conditions are compared, and the results indicate that there are significant differences in the two flowfields.

Pal, S.↗
NASA NTRS1929

Welding of Stainless Materials

It would appear that welds in some stainless steels, heat-treated in some practicable way, will probably be found to have all the resistance to corrosion that is required for aircraft. Certainly these structures are not subjected to the severe conditions that are found in chemical plants.

WELDING↗
NASA NTRS1993

Hazard calculations of diffuse reflected laser radiation for the SELENE program

The hazards from diffuse laser light reflections off water clouds, ice clouds, and fog and from possible specular reflections off ice clouds were assessed with the American National Standards (ANSI Z136.1-1986) for the free-electron-laser parameters under consideration for the Segmented Efficient Laser Emission for Non-Nuclear Electricity (SELENE) Program. Diffuse laser reflection hazards exist for water cloud surfaces less than 722 m in altitude and ice cloud surfaces less than 850 m in altitude. Specular reflections from ice crystals in cirrus clouds are not probable; however, any specular reflection is a hazard to ground observers. The hazard to the laser operators and any ground observers during heavy fog conditions is of such significant magnitude that the laser should not be operated in fog.

Miner, Gilda A.↗