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At least 919 records · Page 51

The future of Earth system prediction: Advances in model-data fusion

Predictions of the Earth system, such as weather forecasts and climate projections, require models informed by observations at many levels. Some methods for integrating models and observations are very systematic and comprehensive (e.g., data assimilation), and some are single purpose and customized (e.g., for model validation). We review current methods and best practices for integrating models and observations. We highlight how future developments can enable advanced heterogeneous observation networks and models to improve predictions of the Earth system (including atmosphere, land surface, oceans, cryosphere, and chemistry) across scales from weather to climate. As the community pushes to develop the next generation of models and data systems, there is a need to take a more holistic, integrated, and coordinated approach to models, observations, and their uncertainties to maximize the benefit for Earth system prediction and impacts on society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Median bed-material sediment particle size across rivers in the contiguous US

Abstract. Bed-material sediment particle size data, particularly the median sediment particle size (D50), are critical for understanding and modeling riverine sediment transport. However, sediment particle size observations are primarily available at individual sites. Large-scale modeling and assessment of riverine sediment transport are limited by the lack of continuous regional maps of bed-material sediment particle size. We hence present a map of D50 over the contiguous US in a vector format that corresponds to approximately 2.7 million river segments (i.e., flowlines) in the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) dataset. We develop the map in four steps: (1) collect and process the observed D50 data from 2577 U.S. Geological Survey stations or U.S. Army Corps of Engineers sampling locations; (2) collocate these data with the NHDPlus flowlines based on their geographic locations, resulting in 1691 flowlines with collocated D50 values; (3) develop a predictive model using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning method based on the observed D50 data and the corresponding climate, hydrology, geology, and other attributes retrieved from the NHDPlus dataset; and (4) estimate the D50 values for flowlines without observations using the XGBoost predictive model. We expect this map to be useful for various purposes, such as research in large-scale river sediment transport using model- and data-driven approaches, teaching environmental and earth system sciences, planning and managing floodplain zones, etc. The map is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4921987 (Li et al., 2021a).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Constellation of Microsatellites Promises to Help in a Range of Geoscience Research

An octet of microsatellites to be launched in 2003 promises to deliver a large amount of useful data for meteorological, climatic, ionospheric, and geodetic research as well as for operational weather forecasting and space weather monitoring. Known as the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC), the joint Taiwan-U.S. scientific satellite project makes use of Global Positioning System (GPS) occultation and tracking signals. COSMIC's final operational configuration is depicted in Figure 1. Each of the eight microsatellites in low-Earth-orbit (LEO, shown relative to the high-altitude GPS satellite orbits) will carry in particular an advanced limb-sounding GPS receiver, a Tiny Ionospheric Photometer, and a triband beacon transmitter.

Kuo, Y. H.↗

LEOMAC: A Future 'Global Atmospheric Composition Mission' (CACM) Concept

Resolution of important outstanding questions in air quality, climate change and ozone layer stability demands global observations of multiple chemical species with high horizontal and vertical resolution from the boundary layer to the stratopause. We present a mission concept that delivers the needed atmospheric composition observations, along with cloud ice and water vapor data needed for improvements in climate and weather forecasting models. The mission comprises ultraviolet and infrared nadir and microwave limb viewing instruments observing wide swaths each orbit. We review the scientific goals of the mission and the measurement capabilities this concept will deliver. We describe how precessing orbits offer significant improvements in temporal resolution and diurnal coverage compared to sun-synchronous orbits. Such improvements are needed to quantify the impact of critical 'fast processes' such as deep convection on the composition and radiative properties of the upper troposphere, a region where water vapor and ozone are strong but poorly understood greenhouse gases. This concept can serve as the 'Global Atmospheric Composition Mission' (GACM) recently recommended by the National Academy of Sciences decadal survey as one of 17 priority earth science missions for the coming decade.

chemistry↗

Leveraging Improvements in Precipitation Measuring from GPM Mission to Achieve Prediction Improvements in Climate, Weather and Hydrometeorology

The main scientific goal of the GPM mission, currently planned for start in the 2007 time frame, is to investigate important scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycles. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like "core" satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing Operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. GPM is organized internationally, currently involving a partnership between NASA in the US and the National Space Development Agency in Japan. Additionally, the program is actively pursuing agreements with other international partners and domestic scientific agencies and institutions, as well as participation by individual scientists from academia, government, and the private sector to fulfill mission goals and to pave the way for what ultimately is expected to become an internationally-organized operational global precipitation observing system. Notably, the broad societal applications of GPM are reflected in the United Nation s identification of this mission as a foremost candidate for its Peaceful Uses of Space Program. In this presentation, an overview of the GPM mission design will be presented, followed by an explanation of its scientific agenda as an outgrowth of making improvements in rain retrieval accuracy, microphysics dexterity, sampling frequency, and global coverage. All of these improvements offer new means to observe variability in precipitation and water cycle fluxes and to achieve improved predictability of weather, climate, and hydrometeorology. Specifically, the scientific agenda of GPM has been designed to leverage the measurement improvements to improve prognostic model performance, particularly quantitative precipitation forecasting and its linked phenomena at short, intermediate, and extended time scales. The talk will address how GPM measurements will enable better detection of accelerations and decelerations in regional and global water cycle processes and their relationship to climate variability, better impacts of precipitation data assimilation on numerical weather prediction and global climate reanalysis, and better performance from basin scale hydrometeorological models for short and long term flood-drought forecasting and seasonal fresh water resource assessment. Improved hydrometeorological forecasting will be possible by using continuous global precipitation observations to obtain better closure in water budgets and to generate more realistic forcing of the models themselves to achieve more accurate estimates of interception, infiltration, evaporation/transpiration fluxes, storage, and runoff.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Linking OH Variability to Observable Variables, Meteorology and Transport

The hydroxyl radical (OH) plays a vital role in tropospheric chemistry, as it provides the dominant sink for a multitude of pollutants and climate-relevant gases such as methane. Observational constraints on the global distribution and temporal variability of OH are limited, and models simulate a wide range of OH distributions. While OH itself has a short atmospheric lifetime, OH is photochemically coupled to longer-lived species that undergo atmospheric transport. Here, we investigate how much of the OH variability within and between models can be explained by differences in observable species to develop diagnostics for OH differences. We find that NO 2 and water vapor together explain much of the spatial and temporal variability in simulated OH, and we use satellite observations to identify biases in these variables. The OH response to ENSO also differs between models, and we investigate potential causes of these differences such as differences in convection or lightning NOx. We also explore the potential of idealized tracers to represent the OH distribution. Within a single model, meteorological variables such as humidity and idealized tracers of transport can explain a significant portion of the OH spatial variability. We use a Gradient Boosted Regression Trees, a type of machine learning, to account for non-linear relationships between OH and the input variables.

Meteorology↗

Anticipated Improvements in Precipitation Physics and Understanding of Water Cycle from GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late-2007 to early-2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycles. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation s orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. GPM is organized internationally, involving existing, pending, projected, and under-study partnerships which will link NASA and NOAA in the US, NASDA in Japan, ESA in Europe, ISRO in India, CNES in France, and possibly AS1 in Italy, KARI in South Korea, CSA in Canada, and AEB in Brazil. Additionally, the program is actively pursuing agreements with other international collaborators and domestic scientific agencies and institutions, as well as participation by individual scientists from academia, government, and the private sector to fulfill mission goals and to pave the way for what is expected to become an internationally-organized operational global precipitation observing system. Notably, the broad societal applications of GPM are reflected in the United Nation s identification of GPM as a foremost candidate for its Peaceful Uses of Space Program. An overview of the GPM mission design is given, followed by an explanation of its scientific agenda as an outgrowth of making improvements in rain retrieval accuracy, microphysics dexterity, sampling frequency, and global coverage. All of these improvements offer new means to observe variability in precipitation and water cycle fluxes and to achieve improved predictability of weather, climate, and hydrometeorology. Specifically, the scientific agenda of GPM has been designed to leverage the measurement improvements to improve prognostic model performance, particularly quantitative precipitation forecasting and its linked phenomena at short, intermediate, and extended time scales. The talk addresses how GPM measurements will enable better detection of accelerations and decelerations in regional and global water cycle processes and their relationship to climate variability, better impacts of precipitation data assimilation on numerical weather prediction and global climate reanalysis, and better performance from basin scale hydrometeorological models for short and long term flood-drought forecasting and seasonal fresh water resource assessment. These improvements become possible by using more accurate, more microphysically-centric, more frequent, and fully global precipitation observations to achieve better water budget closure and to provide more realistic forcing and assessment of prediction models.

Smith, Eric A.↗

How strong is ocean mixing in the Pacific Ocean cold tongue, and does it matter?

Microstructure observations within the Pacific Ocean cold tongue reveal that strong surface boundary layer turbulence often penetrates into the thermocline producing hundreds of W/m^2 of downward heat transport during nighttime and early morning. Hence, it has been suggested that ocean turbulent mixing contributes significantly to the sea-surface temperature budget and modulates air-sea interaction on a wide range of timescales with consequences for global climate and weather. However, most observations of ocean microstructure in the cold tongue are from 0 N,140 W. In this presentation, I will attempt to characterize ocean mixing at and beyond 0 N,140 W using models. Questions to be addressed include: 1) can we model ocean mixing at 0 N,140 W? And 2) how does ocean mixing vary in space and time beyond 0 N,140 W? Finally, 3) how does ocean mixing compare to the air-sea heat flux in the sea-surface temperature budget? Results will be derived from existing observations at 0 N, 140 W and a new hierarchy of regional ocean process simulations including a 20-year-long submesoscale-permitting regional model and month-long turbulence-permitting large eddy simulations embedded in a regional model.

Strong↗

June 2023 Canadian Wildfire Effects on Hampton Roads VA using ASDC Data

In June of 2023 thousands of acres of wildfires spread across northwestern Canada. This event emitted huge amounts of smoke, and pollutants that travelled east across the North America, the Atlantic ocean and eventually all the way to Continental Europe. This smoke created a dangerous air quality event throughout the Atlantic Coast. As climate change increases the prevalence of wildfires more cities and states will be affected by the dangerous smoke and pollutants produced by these events. In this poster we documented and investigated the June 06th Air Quality Event over Hampton Roads, VA. To perform a comparative analysis, we utilized two data sources: NASA’s Atmospheric Science Data Center we used the Cloud Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO), the Deep Space Climate ObserVatoRy (DSCOVR) Enhanced Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC), data product, and the EPA’s ground-based Air Quality System (AQS).

Air Quality↗

A Model Assessment of Satellite Observed Trends in Polar Sea Ice Extents

For more than three decades now, satellite passive microwave observations have been used to monitor polar sea ice. Here we utilize sea ice extent trends determined from primarily satellite data for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for the period 1972(73)-2004 and compare them with results from simulations by eleven climate models. In the Northern Hemisphere, observations show a statistically significant decrease of sea ice extent and an acceleration of sea ice retreat during the past three decades. However, from the modeled natural variability of sea ice extents in control simulations, we conclude that the acceleration is not statistically significant and should not be extrapolated into the future. Observations and model simulations show that the time scale of climate variability in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere is much larger than in the Northern Hemisphere and that the Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent trends are not statistically significant.

Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.↗

Satellite Remote Sensing of Aerosol Forcing

Aerosol and cloud impacts on the earth's climate become a recent hot topic in climate studies. Having near future earth observing satellites, EOS-AM1 (Earth Observing System-AM1), ENVISAT (Environmental Satellites) and ADEOS-2 (Advanced Earth Observation Satellite-2), it will be a good timing to discuss how to obtain and use the microphysical parameters of aerosols and clouds for studying their climate impacts. Center for Climate System Research (CCSR) of the University of Tokyo invites you to 'Symposium on synergy between satellite-remote sensing and climate modeling in aerosol and cloud issues.' Here, we like to discuss the current and future issues in the remote sensing of aerosol and cloud microphysical parameters and their climate modeling studies. This workshop is also one of workshop series on aerosol remote sensing held in 1996, Washington D. C., and Meribel, France in 1999. It should be reminded that NASDA/ADEOS-1 & -2 (National Space Development Agency of Japan/Advanced Earth Observation Satellite-1 & -2) Workshop will be held in the following week (Dec. 6-10, 1999), so that this opportunity will be a perfect period for you to attend two meetings for satellite remote sensing in Japan. A weekend in Kyoto, the old capital of Japan, will add a nice memory to your visiting Japan. *Issues in the symposium: 1) most recent topics in aerosol and cloud remot sensing, and 2) utility of satellite products on climate modeling of cloud-aerosol effects.

Remer, Lorraine↗

Observational and modeling studies of the influence of sea ice anomalies on atmospheric circulation

The effects of sea ice on short-term climate variability are studied by comparing the speculated and model-derived climatic roles of sea ice with the observational evidence. It is concluded that sea ice variations have large local impacts on the lower atmosphere which can be useful in local forecasting at the 30-90 day range. Observational studies are found to be severely constrained by the fact that atmospheric forcing plays a major role in the development of sea ice anomalies. Global climate models exhibit significant sensitivities to large changes of sea ice coverage. While the responses of different models are similar in many respects, there are inconsistencies among the models in the changes of some fundamental variables.

Walsh, John E.↗

Exploring Aerosols Near Clouds With High‐Spatial‐Resolution Aircraft Remote Sensing During SEAC(4)RS

Since aerosols are important to our climate system, we seek to observe the variability of aerosol properties within cloud systems. When applied to the satellite‐borne Moderate‐resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Dark Target retrieval algorithm provides global aerosol optical depth (AOD; at 0.55 μm) in cloud‐free scenes. Since MODIS' resolution (500‐m pixels, 3‐ or 10‐km product) is too coarse for studying near‐cloud aerosol, we ported the Dark Target algorithm to the high‐resolution (~50‐m pixels) enhanced‐MODIS Airborne Simulator (eMAS), which flew on the high‐altitude ER‐2 during the Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds, and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys Airborne Science Campaign over the United States in 2013. We find that even with aggressive cloud screening, the ~0.5‐km eMAS retrievals show enhanced AOD, especially within 6 km of a detected cloud. To determine the cause of the enhanced AOD, we analyze additional eMAS products (cloud retrievals and degraded‐resolution AOD), coregistered Cloud Physics Lidar profiles, MODIS aerosol retrievals, and ground‐based Aerosol Robotic Network observations. We also define spatial metrics to indicate local cloud distributions near each retrieval and then separate into near‐cloud and far‐from‐cloud environments. The comparisons show that low cloud masking is robust, and unscreened thin cirrus would have only a small impact on retrieved AOD. Some of the enhancement is consistent with clear‐cloud transition zone microphysics such as aerosol swelling. However, 3‐D radiation interaction between clouds and the surrounding clear air appears to be the primary cause of the high AOD near clouds.

aerosol retrieval algorithm↗

Investigation of Arctic Cloud Properties and Surface Radiation Based on MOSAiC Shipborne Observations

The Arctic is rapidly changing due to changes of the Earth system. This study investigates cloud fraction, phase partition, cloud type, and their relationships with surface radiation based on yearlong shipborne observations in the Arctic regions. The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) campaign provided lidar and radar observations of cloud microphysical properties and surface shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiation. Cloud and radiative properties were examined at daily and monthly resolutions in four seasons. Low clouds were found to be most prevalent throughout the year, followed by deep clouds. The ice phase is the dominant phase except for summer (June–August). Liquid and mixed phases show more significant monthly and annual mean radiative effects in SW and LW than the ice phase. The clouds show net warming effects due to LW heating in most months, while the SW cooling effects of clouds become more dominant for July and August. The cloud and radiation observations from MOSAiC were used to evaluate simulations of the atmospheric component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2. The simulations show large overestimations of the liquid and mixed phases in the Arctic regions from February to September. The simulations also underestimate the percentages of low clouds and overestimate the percentages of deep clouds throughout the year. Altogether, this work provides a unique analysis of cloud and radiation properties based on high-resolution shipborne observations, which can be used to assist future model evaluation and development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Response of extreme precipitation to uniform surface warming in quasi-global aquaplanet simulations at high resolution

Projections of precipitation extremes in simulations with global climate models are very uncertain in the tropics, in part because of the use of parameterizations of deep convection and model deficiencies in simulating convective organization. Here, we analyse precipitation extremes in high-resolution simulations that are run without a convective parameterization on a quasi-global aquaplanet. The frequency distributions of precipitation rates and precipitation cluster sizes in the tropics of a control simulation are similar to the observed distributions. In response to climate warming, 3 h precipitation extremes increase at rates of up to 9 % K - 1 in the tropics because of a combination of positive thermodynamic and dynamic contributions. The dynamic contribution at different latitudes is connected to the vertical structure of warming using a moist static stability. When the precipitation rates are first averaged to a daily timescale and coarse-grained to a typical global climate-model resolution prior to calculating the precipitation extremes, the response of the precipitation extremes to warming becomes more similar to what was found previously in coarse-resolution aquaplanet studies. However, the simulations studied here do not exhibit the high rates of increase of tropical precipitation extremes found in projections with some global climate models. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Groundwater Storage Changes: Present Status from GRACE Observations

Satellite gravity measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) provide quantitative measurement of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes with unprecedented accuracy. Combining GRACE-observed TWS changes and independent estimates of water change in soil and snow and surface reservoirs offers a means for estimating groundwater storage change. Since its launch in March 2002, GRACE time-variable gravity data have been successfully used to quantify long-term groundwater storage changes in different regions over the world, including northwest India, the High Plains Aquifer and the Central Valley in the USA, the North China Plain, Middle East, and southern Murray-Darling Basin in Australia, where groundwater storage has been significantly depleted in recent years (or decades). It is difficult to rely on in situ groundwater measurements for accurate quantification of large, regional-scale groundwater storage changes, especially at long timescales due to inadequate spatial and temporal coverage of in situ data and uncertainties in storage coefficients. The now nearly 13 years of GRACE gravity data provide a successful and unique complementary tool for monitoring and measuring groundwater changes on a global and regional basis. Despite the successful applications of GRACE in studying global groundwater storage change, there are still some major challenges limiting the application and interpretation of GRACE data. In this paper, we present an overview of GRACE applications in groundwater studies and discuss if and how the main challenges to using GRACE data can be addressed.

Australia↗

Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect

Our planet’s energy balance is sensitive to spatial inhomogeneities in sea surface temperature and sea ice changes, but this is typically ignored in climate projections. Here, we show the energy budget during recent decades can be closed by combining changes in effective radiative forcing, linear radiative damping and this pattern effect. The pattern effect is of comparable magnitude but opposite sign to Earth’s net energy imbalance in the 2000s, indicating its importance when predicting the future climate on the basis of observations. Additionally, after the pattern effect is accounted for, the best-estimate value of committed global warming at present-day forcing rises from 1.31 K (0.99–2.33 K, 5th–95th percentile) to over 2 K, and committed warming in 2100 with constant long-lived forcing increases from 1.32 K (0.94–2.03 K) to over 1.5 K, although the magnitude is sensitive to sea surface temperature dataset. Further constraints on the pattern effect are needed to reduce climate projection uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Atmospheric teleconnection associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability in summer: assessment of the CESM1 model

Observational analysis shows that the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is associated with climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere through a zonal atmospheric teleconnection extending from the North Atlantic Ocean and propagating eastward around the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we studied the fidelity of model simulations in reproducing the observed summer AMV and the associated impacts on the mid-latitude climate by analysing simulations using the National Centre for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1), including CESM1 North Atlantic idealized and pacemaker simulations, CESM1 large ensemble twentieth century uninitialized simulations and large ensemble initialized CESM1 decadal predictions. To further compare the fidelity of CESM1, we also analysed large ensemble simulations from three other models. Our results suggest that the uninitialized large ensemble simulations from all models can produce an AMV time evolution and its regional climate impacts similar to the observations to certain degree. By initializing the observed oceanic condition in decadal prediction simulations, the simulated AMV and its regional impacts are closer to the observed ones than those in uninitialized ensemble simulations. In addition, the pacemaker simulations that nudged the time-evolving observed North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies produce spatiotemporal characteristics of the AMV and AMV climate impacts closer to the observed ones than the uninitialized simulations. We conclude that although coupled models can produce AMV and its regional impacts similar to observed, proper initialization and bias correction of the sea surface temperature spatial and temporal structure can improve this capability.

Initialization↗