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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 919 records · Page 51
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of $\nu_{\mu}$CC1$\pi^0$ cross-section on heavy nuclei in MINERvA

MINERvA is a neutrino-nucleus scattering experiment that investigates the effects of the nuclear medium on neutrino interactions on different targets in the energy range of the few-GeV. One of the motivations of those measurements is to provide a solid understanding of cross-sections in that energy regime that can be useful for the physics program of the current and future neutrino oscillation experiments. Because of the different interaction types in the few-GeV regime, MINERvA specializes in studying interactions with several final state production channels. Previous measurements of single-$\pi^0$ production on hydrocarbon using a neutrino beam with a mean energy of 3 GeV have shown remarkable discrepancies between the predicted and the observed cross-sections in the low-$Q^2$ regime. Such results were consistent with similar measurements from the MiniBooNE and MINOS experiments, both made of carbon-based detectors. This thesis will describe the results of the novel analysis of neu trino-induced single-$\pi^0$ production on lead and iron using a neutrino beam with a mean energy of 6 GeV. This thesis work aims to investigate similar suppression effects at low momentum transfer and offer a glance at those effects in a heavy nuclei medium.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change

Human effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling. Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900-present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO 2 and temperature change for different anthromes among regions. Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO 2 increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO 2 and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests. The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land-use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Genome Sequence and Analysis of the Flavinogenic Yeast Candida membranifaciens IST 626

The ascomycetous yeast Candida membranifaciens has been isolated from diverse habitats, including humans, insects, and environmental sources, exhibiting a remarkable ability to use different carbon sources that include pentoses, melibiose, and inulin. In this study, we isolated four C. membranifaciens strains from soil and investigated their potential to overproduce riboflavin. C. membranifaciens IST 626 was found to produce the highest concentrations of riboflavin. The volumetric production of this vitamin was higher when C. membranifaciens IST 626 cells were cultured in a commercial medium without iron and when xylose was the available carbon source compared to the same basal medium with glucose. Supplementation of the growth medium with 2 g/L glycine favored the metabolization of xylose, leading to biomass increase and consequent enhancement of riboflavin volumetric production that reached 120 mg/L after 216 h of cultivation. To gain new insights into the molecular basis of riboflavin production and carbon source utilization in this species, the first annotated genome sequence of C. membranifaciens is reported in this article, as well as the result of a comparative genomic analysis with other relevant yeast species. A total of 5619 genes were predicted to be present in C. membranifaciens IST 626 genome sequence (11.5 Mbp). Among them are genes involved in riboflavin biosynthesis, iron homeostasis, and sugar uptake and metabolism. This work put forward C. membranifaciens IST 626 as a riboflavin overproducer and provides valuable molecular data for future development of superior producing strains capable of using the wide range of carbon sources, which is a characteristic trait of the species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of curing kinetics of resorcinol‐added resole phenolic resins using differential scanning calorimetry for the fabrication of carbon/carbon composites

Phenolic resins are commonly used as carbon precursors for the fabrication of carbon/carbon composites due to their high carbon yield and aromatic nature. To decrease curing times, acid catalysts are generally used, but the addition of resorcinol was found to have a similar effect while being incorporated into the resin matrix with no contamination or corrosion issues. In this work, the curing kinetics of pure, 10, 20, and 30 wt% resorcinol-added phenolic resins were investigated through differential scanning calorimetry. Heating rates of 0.5, 1, 2.5, and 5°C min -1 were used with several curing models to predict isothermal curing. Averaged mean absolute error (MAE) for the isoconversional mathematical approaches namely Kissinger–Akahira–Sunose (MAE = 12.9 min), Flynn–Wall–Ozawa (15.8 min), and Vyazovkin (14 min) show that these methods provide the best predictions, attributed to their adoption of an activation energy that depends on the extent of cure (E a (α)). The Kissinger method (MAE = 36 min), which depends only on peak temperature with a constant activation energy assumption, and the data noise sensitive Friedman model (MAE = 1144.7 min) provide the least accurate results. Thermogravimetric analysis revealed that resorcinol decreases the curing times by up to 71% without lowering carbon yield.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Carbonation of model cement pastes: The mineralogical origin of microstructural changes and shrinkage

This study explored the reactive processes of atmospheric carbonation and the consequences with respect to cementitious materials. Two model pastes were used: hydrated C{sub 3}S (including C-S-H and portlandite) and a paste prepared by hydrating a blend of C{sub 3}S and nanosilica (including C-S-H only). The two pastes were carbonated under accelerated conditions in the laboratory. The resulting mineralogical assemblage was examined using X-ray diffraction, thermogravimetric analysis and nuclear magnetic resonance. The microstructural changes were studied by X-ray tomography and porosimetry, and their macroscopic impacts were evaluated through gas diffusion and shrinkage measurements. The use of model pastes allowed for the evaluation of the change in solid volume induced by the carbonation of C-S-H. C-S-H decalcification and subsequent silica chain polymerisation were found responsible for carbonation shrinkage (and potentially cracking). Finally, the results highlight the protective role of portlandite: portlandite helped in limiting C-S-H decalcification and then reducing carbonation shrinkage and cracking.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Winter warming rapidly increases carbon degradation capacities of fungal communities in tundra soil: Potential consequences on carbon stability

We report high-latitude tundra ecosystems are increasingly affected by climate warming. As an important fraction of soil microorganisms, fungi play essential roles in carbon degradation, especially the old, chemically recalcitrant carbon. However, it remains obscure how fungi respond to climate warming and whether fungi, in turn, affect carbon stability of tundra. In a 2-year winter soil warming experiment of 2°C by snow fences, we investigated responses of fungal communities to warming in the active layer of an Alaskan tundra. Although fungal community composition, revealed by the 28S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, remained unchanged (p > .05), fungal functional gene composition, revealed by a microarray named GeoChip, was altered (p < .05). Changes in functional gene composition were linked to winter soil temperature, thaw depth, soil moisture, and gross primary productivity (canonical correlation analysis, p < .05). Specifically, relative abundances of fungal genes encoding invertase, xylose reductase and vanillin dehydrogenase significantly increased (p < .05), indicating higher carbon degradation capacities of fungal communities under warming. Accordingly, we detected changes in fungal gene networks under warming, including higher average path distance, lower average clustering coefficient and lower percentage of negative links, indicating that warming potentially changed fungal interactions. Together, our study reveals higher carbon degradation capacities of fungal communities under short-term warming and highlights the potential impacts of fungal communities on tundra ecosystem respiration, and consequently future carbon stability of high-latitude tundra.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Small Reactors in Microgrids: Technology Modeling and Selection (Net-Zero Microgrid Program Project Report)

This report demonstrates the capabilities of the net-zero microgrid (NZM) Xendee platform for modeling an SR module with electricity, heat extraction and thermal storage in microgrids configurations. The model effectively captures the most important technical and economic considerations for SR technology specific analysis: cost and operational characteristics of SR technology and financial costs and incentives. The model can analyze multiple scenarios to establish metrics for cost-competitive and zero-carbon microgrids connected to the grid or completely isolated. The model is fully integrated within the Xendee platform for modeling and analysis of clean energy microgrids with storage and generation from renewable energy sources. The model captures the capabilities, constraints, and nuances of SR by incorporating parameters related to plant economics, design efficiency and performance, plant operation and component and fuel lifespan. The cost and operational parameters modeled in the SR module are specific to the technology selected for integration in the microgrid. Cost parameters recognize advanced nuclear technology for modular production and installation based on economies of scale from factory manufacture and related commissioning, and cost reduction through technology maturation—first-of-a-kind (FOAK) and nth-of-a-Kind (NOAK). The cost parameters include installation, operations and maintenance (O&M), fuel refueling cycle, and reactor life. Installation cost reflects economies of scale due to unit sizing at scale and colocation. O&M economies of scale for both fixed- and variable-cost fuel life-cycle costs are incurred at every refueling interval, with separate front- and back-end fuel costs, as well as waste-handling and disposition costs. This report investigates key characteristics of different SR technologies suitable for microgrid applications, including design principles, sizing, coolant properties, temperature ratings, fuel structures, and life-cycle considerations. This also includes fuel technologies applicable to these SR systems, alongside strategies for nuclear-waste and spent-fuel management and approaches to address safety, security, and proliferation challenges. Four primary groups of SR technologies are examined: water-cooled, liquid-metal-cooled, high-temperature gas-cooled, and molten-salt-cooled systems. In this report, an initial guideline for technology selection is established, aligning the characteristics of the technologies with the requirements of microgrids. The selection of technology in a microgrid is influenced by various factors, including financial capacity, location and accessibility, demand type and characteristics, reliability and resilience requirements, area constraints, and the lifespan of the microgrid. The types of electrical and non-electrical applications within the microgrid also play a significant role in technology selection. The characteristics of SRs, such as their smaller size, modularity, transportability, long refueling interval, improved safety features, ability to operate in autonomous or semi-autonomous mode, and provision of high-grade heat, are particularly appealing for microgrids. Furthermore, a list of considerations for implementing SRs in microgrids is outlined. The SR model is created to be continuously improved with the acquisition of actual data on investment and operational costs, experience with supply chains, production at scale, and field deployments. In the near term, performance data on applications in microgrids will become available from lessons learned from laboratory tests, such as those planned for the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation Project (MARVEL), led by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The SR model incorporates scenario data and known SR design specifications, enabling technoeconomic analysis for SR deployment in microgrids. It specifically considers the distinctive attributes of SRs as generators in technoeconomic studies. SRs can be modeled and analyzed with generation from renewable-energy sources, energy storage, and flexible loads over a range of functionality and applications. This offers a comprehensive tool for feasibility studies, scenario development, and sensitivity analysis for “what-if” consideration of any range of assumptions about SRs in microgrids and other aggregations of distributed-energy resources, including virtual power plants.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Geochemical Changes in Response to CO 2 Injection in a CO 2 -EOR Complex in Northern Michigan

The overall purpose of the geochemical monitoring program under Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) is to use stable and radiogenic isotope geochemistry in concert with analysis of general geochemical parameters of fluids and gases and analysis of core samples to determine geochemical processes occurring in the reef structure because of CO 2 injection..

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impact of Rock Wettability and Mineralization on CO 2 Storage Efficiency in Basalt Reservoirs

Basalt formations have emerged as highly promising targets for geological CO 2 storage due to their abundance of reactive silicate minerals that can rapidly convert dissolved CO 2 into stable carbonate minerals. The efficiency of CO 2 trapping in basalts, however, depends not only on their geochemical reactivity but also on reservoir wettability, which governs how CO 2 partitions among structural, residual, solubility, and mineral trapping mechanisms. However, wettability and mineral kinetics have largely been examined separately, wettability for plume migration and kinetics in terms of mineralization, leaving their coupled impact unquantified. Here, we systematically integrate th ese processes in a reservoir-scale reactive transport model to quantify the impact of three distinct wettability conditions (water-wet, mixed-wet, and CO 2 -wet) on plume migration, mineral precipitation, pore-scale blockage, and long-term immobilization. Results show that under ideal conditions (no mineralization), water-wet systems exhibited plume aspect ratios up to 28% higher than CO 2 -wet systems and promoted at least 60% greater residual trapping. When mineralization was incorporated, mineral trapping accounted for 57%, 53%, and 46% of the total immobilized CO 2 in water-wet, mixed-wet, and CO 2 -wet systems, respectively. Dissolved CO 2 contributed 43-46%, while residual trapping remained below 5%, and mobile CO 2 was substantially reduced due to mineralization, demonstrating that as the system becomes more water-wet, CO 2 is more effectively converted into stable carbonate minerals, although extensive mineral precipitation may lead to pore clogging. A global Sobol-Morris sensitivity analysis further reveals that the kinetic parameters of reactive minerals are the most influential factor, followed by wettability, while salinity has only a minor influence. Furthermore, these findings highlight that wettability is not merely a flow property but a fundamental control on CO 2 mineralization in basalts, with direct implications for site selection for storage projects.

Basalts↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon sequestration into lime-stabilized soils: Engineering and mineralogical characterization

Stabilizing weak clayey soils with lime is an effective method for improving the mechanical properties of soil. However, lime production is an energy-intensive process producing significant CO 2 emissions in lime-stabilized soils, which can be counteracted through accelerated carbonation that enhances its engineering performance. The present study evaluates accelerated carbonation of lime-treated soils by adding gaseous (CO 2 -rich gas), liquid (water-CO 2 mixture), and solid (sodium bicarbonate) CO 2 sources. Results indicated that samples carbonated with gaseous CO 2 exhibited 100% lime carbonation, while samples treated with solid and aqueous sources of CO 2 had a mean lime carbonation of 60% and 40%, respectively. Further, all lime-treated-carbonated samples exhibited a mean 50% increase in unconfined compressive strength compared to the untreated samples after a 7-day curing period. Durability evaluation through cyclic wetting and drying indicated that the carbonated samples had higher durability than the untreated samples. X-ray computed tomography showed that adding solid and liquid sources of CO 2 facilitated the flocculation of montmorillonite, reducing the porosity. However, a higher dosage of solid CO 2 induced clay dispersion, increasing the porosity. X-ray diffraction and thermogravimetric analysis verified CO 2 sequestration through the formation of calcite, a thermodynamically stable polymorph of calcium carbonate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tonian Carbonates Record Phosphate-Rich Shallow Seas

The early-middle Neoproterozoic is thought to have witnessed significant perturbations to marine P cycling, in turn facilitating the rise of eukaryote-dominated primary production. However, with few robust constraints on aqueous P concentrations, current understanding of Neoproterozoic P cycling is generally model-dependent. To provide new geochemical constraints, we combined microanalytical data sets with solid-state Nuclear Magnetic Resonance, synchrotron-based X-ray Absorption Near Edge Structure spectroscopy, and micro-X-ray Fluorescence imaging to characterize the speciation and distribution of P in Tonian shallow-water carbonate rocks. These data reflect shallow water phosphate concentrations 10–100× higher than modern systems, supporting the hypothesis that tectonically-driven influxes in P periodically initiated kinetically-controlled CaCO 3 deposition, in turn destabilizing marine carbonate chemistry, climate, and nutrient inventories. Alongside these observations, a new compilation and statistical analysis of mudstone geochemistry data indicates that, in parallel, C org and P burial increased across later Tonian continental margins until becoming decoupled at the close of the Tonian, implicating widespread N-limitation triggered by increasing atmospheric O 2 .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A first principles analysis of potential-dependent structural evolution of active sites in Fe-N-C catalysts

Fe-N-C (iron–nitrogen–carbon) electrocatalysts have emerged as potential alternatives to precious metal-based materials for the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR). However, the structure of these materials under electrochemical conditions is not well understood, and their poor stability in acidic environments poses a formidable challenge for successful adoption in commercial fuel cells. To provide molecular-level insights into these complex phenomena, we combine periodic density functional theory (DFT) calculations, exhaustive treatment of coadsorption effects for ORR reaction intermediates, including O and OH, and comprehensive analysis of solvation stabilization effects to construct voltage-dependent ab initio thermodynamic phase diagrams that describe the in situ structure of the active sites. These structures are further linked to activity and stability descriptors that can be compared with experimental parameters such as the half-wave potential for ORR and the onset potential for carbon corrosion and CO 2 evolution. The results indicate that pyridinic Fe sites at zigzag carbon edges, as well as other edge sites, exhibit high activity for ORR compared to sites in the bulk. However, edges neighboring the active sites are prone to instability via overoxidation and consequent site loss. The results suggest that it could be beneficial to synthesize Fe-N-C catalysts with small sizes and large perimeter edge lengths to enhance ORR activity, while voltage fluctuations should be limited during fuel cell operation to prevent carbon corrosion of overoxidized edges.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

A systematic approach to generating accurate neural network potentials: the case of carbon

Abstract Availability of affordable and widely applicable interatomic potentials is the key needed to unlock the riches of modern materials modeling. Artificial neural network-based approaches for generating potentials are promising; however, neural network training requires large amounts of data, sampled adequately from an often unknown potential energy surface. Here we propose a self-consistent approach that is based on crystal structure prediction formalism and is guided by unsupervised data analysis, to construct an accurate, inexpensive, and transferable artificial neural network potential. Using this approach, we construct an interatomic potential for carbon and demonstrate its ability to reproduce first principles results on elastic and vibrational properties for diamond, graphite, and graphene, as well as energy ordering and structural properties of a wide range of crystalline and amorphous phases.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Driven Sensitivity Analysis of E3SM Land Model Parameters for Wetland Methane Emissions

Methane (CH 4 ) is globally the second most critical greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, contributing to 16%–25% of the observed atmospheric warming. Wetlands are the primary natural source of methane emissions globally. However, wetland methane emission estimates from biogeochemistry models contain considerable uncertainty. One of the main sources of this uncertainty arises from the numerous uncertain model parameters within various physical, biological, and chemical processes that influence methane production, oxidation, and transport. Sensitivity Analysis (SA) can help identify critical parameters for methane emission and achieve reduced biases and uncertainties in future projections. This study performs SA for 19 selected parameters responsible for critical biogeochemical processes in the methane module of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). The impact of these parameters on various CH 4 fluxes is examined at 14 FLUXNET- CH 4 sites with diverse vegetation types. Given the extensive number of model simulations needed for global variance-based SA, we employ a machine learning (ML) algorithm to emulate the complex behavior of ELM methane biogeochemistry. We found that parameters linked to CH 4 production and diffusion generally present the highest sensitivities despite apparent seasonal variation. Comparing simulated emissions from perturbed parameter sets against FLUXNET-CH 4 observations revealed that better performances can be achieved at each site compared to the default parameter values. This presents a scope for further improving simulated emissions using parameter calibration with advanced optimization techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Progress in understanding and improving oil content and quality in seeds

The world’s population is projected to increase by two billion by 2050, resulting in food and energy insecurity. Oilseed crops have been identified as key to address these challenges: they produce and store lipids in the seeds as triacylglycerols that can serve as a source of food/feed, renewable fuels, and other industrially-relevant chemicals. Therefore, improving seed oil content and composition has generated immense interest. Research efforts aiming to unravel the regulatory pathways involved in fatty acid synthesis and to identify targets for metabolic engineering have made tremendous progress. This review provides a summary of the current knowledge of oil metabolism and discusses how photochemical activity and unconventional pathways can contribute to high carbon conversion efficiency in seeds. It also highlights the importance of 13 C-metabolic flux analysis as a tool to gain insights on the pathways that regulate oil biosynthesis in seeds. Finally, a list of key genes and regulators that have been recently targeted to enhance seed oil production are reviewed and additional possible targets in the metabolic pathways are proposed to achieve desirable oil content and quality.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Iron XANES measurements of carbonates and phyllosilicates in CM chondrites: A record of redox conditions during aqueous alteration

Multiple generations of calcite and dolomite precipitated in CM chondrites during ice melting events that led to episodes of liquid water. Models and laboratory analysis have suggested a long-term transition from oxidizing to reducing conditions during aqueous alteration on the CM parent body. We found that synchrotron X-ray absorption near edge spectroscopy (XANES) can detect relative differences in the oxidation state of trace iron within these carbonates. In CM chondrites, previous work interpreted Mn abundance in calcite as an indicator of relatively early or late formation, and dolomite is understood to form relatively late. In the CM1 chondrite Meteorite Hills 01070, XANES maps reveal that Mn-poor calcite contains more oxidized iron relative to Mn-rich calcite. While these measurements of carbonates support increasing iron reduction with progressive aqueous alteration in MET 01070, comparison among different CM chondrites suggests a complex picture of redox evolution. In addition to carbonates, we performed XANES measurements of the phyllosilicate-rich matrix of Allan Hills 83,100. Pre-edge centroid analysis indicates that this CM1/2 has an oxidation state similar to typical CM2 chondrites. While additional measurements are warranted to confirm the full span of redox trends in CM carbonates, our data do not support a correlation between redox state and petrologic type.

Bailey, Elizabeth [Univ. of California, Santa Cruz↗
DOE OSTI2021

Determination of Carbon, Hydrogen, Nitrogen, and Oxygen in Bio-Oils: Laboratory Analytical Procedure (LAP)

The determination of total carbon, hydrogen, and nitrogen in bio-oils is important as these values can be used to track the carbon balance of production processes as well as calculate total oxygen content by difference. Oxygen content of bio-oils is a key metric for production and upgrading strategies as these are typically aimed at reducing oxygen. Oxygenates in bio-oils contribute to poor hydrocarbon miscibility, high acidity, high viscosity, and poor stability. Upgrading of bio-oils via deoxygenation produces hydrocarbons which can be used to generate feedstocks for renewable fuels and chemicals. In this Laboratory Analytical Procedure (LAP), combustion-based ultimate analysis is used to determine the weight percent (wt%) of C, H, and N in bio-oils and upgraded products. Ultimate analysis uses high temperatures and a pure oxygen environment to completely combust organic samples to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), water (H 2 O), and nitrogen oxides (NO x ). In this procedure the amount of C and H in the sample are quantified by measuring resultant CO 2 and H 2 O with Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). For N, NO x is reduced to nitrogen (N 2 ) which is measured with a thermal conductivity detector (TCD), providing total N content.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets

Countries worldwide are transforming their energy systems to achieve Carbon-Neutrality. Investing in renewable resources-based technologies and implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are common strategies to achieve higher sequestration levels. Negative emissions through Bioenergy with CCS are expected to play an essential role in the transition to full decarbonization. On top of that, biomass is a limited resource that depends on environmental factors, which create uncertainties related to the amount that can be sustainably provided to the energy system. Here this study emphasizes the relevance of variability in carbon sequestration for achieving climate targets by 2050. Here this paper proposes a probabilistic approach that integrates the Global Change Analysis Model for Latin America (GCAM-LA) with a chance constraint approach. GCAM-LA is used to assess the impact on the energy sector of different limits of sustainable biomass and carbon budget scenarios. The risk associated with exceeding the sequestration capacity of a given region is modeled via Chance Constraint. Results show that electrification is an appropriate long-term decarbonization strategy. It smoothes the effects of uncertainty in sequestration capacity and responds to end-user demands. For this case study, higher levels of electrification are obtained at likelihood levels >66% for end-use sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗