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At least 919 records · Page 51
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Optimization-Inspired Pin-Fin Array for Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Recuperator

Additively manufactured heat exchangers are one possible route to cost-effective sCO 2 power cycles. In this paper, experimental results are obtained for two helical pin fin tubes that were designed following parametric optimization of the fin array. Neither the numerical optimization nor the experimental testing have been previously reported in the literature. The two tube designs were, (1) the optimization inspired design, and (2) the optimization-inspired design with a fin diameter increased by a factor of 2. To characterize the print, the designs were scanned using X-ray computed tomography to measure feature sizes and heat transfer area. The optimization was conducted in a commercial, computational fluid dynamics code. The code solved the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) and energy equations with turbulence closure provided by the shear stress transport (SST) k-ω model. In the experiments, the Nusselt number augmentation was measured using the Wilson plot technique and the friction factor was determined with mass flow and pressure drop measurements. The experimental testing indicated that the optimization-inspired design had a friction factor that was four times less than the baseline tube design at equal Nusselt number. Additionally, the optimization-inspired design had a 14% improvement in Nusselt number, at equal friction factor, relative to the best performing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) trial points. Tube design (2), with the larger diameter pin fins, had similar performance, within experimental error, as the tube with the smaller diameter pin fins (1). Both tubes achieved overall fin array efficiencies near 1. A performance factor, V/V 0 , equal to the volume of the enhanced heat exchanger divided by the volume of the baseline (no-fins) heat exchanger, is recommended to quantify internal cooling performance. In conclusion, the experimental shell and tube heat exchanger, using the additively manufactured tube, is competitive with printed circuit heat exchangers in its pressure drop class and could be further improved by optimizing a shell-and-tube heat exchanger utilizing this heat transfer enhancement feature.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Building envelope anomaly characterization and simulation using drone time-lapse thermography

Defects in building envelopes deteriorate over time without being visible to the human eye, while significantly impacting energy performance due to unaccounted heat transfer. Defects can be characterized in the infrared (IR) spectrum. However, IR readings are typically recorded at singular points in time, when in several cases anomalies can only be revealed at specific times of the day, possibly in different seasons of the year. This paper presents a novel workflow for 3D envelope defect characterization and modeling using aerial time-lapse IR data collection using drones. A comprehensive envelope thermal profile is developed for a case study building employing the photogrammetry software Agisoft Photoscan, which generates temporal IR inspections of building skins using multiple thermography orthomosaics. Point-cloud data is then translated into a CAD model and thermal zones for whole Building Energy Modeling (BEM) using Honeybee as a frontend to EnergyPlus to showcase the potential of inclusion of detailed 4D data. Envelope contributions in this case study’s anomalies showed heat losses of 6447.6 kWh, and Energy Use Intensity (EUI) differences of ~2 kWh/m 2 /year from the baseline. Finally, why there is currently little translation of this work in BEM software is discussed, while identifying limitations and future research in the employment of time-lapse thermography using drones for more accurate building envelope inspection and modeling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1993

Lunar scout missions: Galileo encounter results and application to scientific problems and exploration requirements

The Lunar Scout Missions (payload: x-ray fluorescence spectrometer, high-resolution stereocamera, neutron spectrometer, gamma-ray spectrometer, imaging spectrometer, gravity experiment) will provide a global data set for the chemistry, mineralogy, geology, topography, and gravity of the Moon. These data will in turn provide an important baseline for the further scientific exploration of the Moon by all-purpose landers and micro-rovers, and sample return missions from sites shown to be of primary interest from the global orbital data. These data would clearly provide the basis for intelligent selection of sites for the establishment of lunar base sites for long-term scientific and resource exploration and engineering studies. The two recent Galileo encounters with the Moon (December, 1990 and December, 1992) illustrate how modern technology can be applied to significant lunar problems. We emphasize the regional results of the Galileo SSI to show the promise of geologic unit definition and characterization as an example of what can be done with the global coverage to be obtained by the Lunar Scout Missions.

Head, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Plasma contactor development for Space Station

Plasma contactors have been baselined for the Space Station (SS) to control the electrical potentials of surfaces to eliminate/mitigate damaging interactions with the space environment. The system represents a dual-use technology which is a direct outgrowth of the NASA electric propulsion program and, in particular, the technology development effort on ion thrustor systems. The plasma contactor subsystems include the plasma contactor unit, a power electronics unit, and an expellant management unit. Under this pre-flight development program these will all be brought to breadboard or engineering model status. Development efforts for the plasma contactor include optimizing the design and configuration of the contactor, validating its required lifetime, and characterizing the contactor plume and electromagnetic interference. The plasma contactor unit design selected for the SS is an enclosed keeper, xenon hollow cathode plasma source. This paper discusses the test results and development status of the plasma contactor unit subsystem for the SS.

Patterson, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The PIAA-Vortex Coronagraph: A New Coronagraph Technology to Maximize Exo-Earth Yields in the Astro2020 Era

Detecting and characterizing the atmospheres of terrestrial exoplanets is a main goal of the IR/O/UV flagship mission recommended by the Astro2020 Report. Achieving this goal depends critically on developing coronagraph technology that maximizes the potential number of terrestrial exoplanets we predict we can characterize, i.e. the exoEarth yield. Stringent constraints on low-order aberration sensitivity, inner working angle, and throughput as a function of telescope pupil complexity have been one of the main limiting factors affecting the yield of coronagraphs, and is a driving factor for telescope design considerations such as whether to use an off-axis or on-axis architecture. We present a hybrid PIAA-Vortex coronagraph concept that relaxes many of these constraints, and makes on-axis telescopes with centrally obstructed pupils a viable region of the design trade-space for the IR/O/UV flagship. Using the LUVOIR-A pupil as a baseline to design around, we present a coronagraph architecture with a small, ~2.5 lambda/D working angle that is insensitive to tip/tilt aberrations and stellar angular diameters on the order of 0.1 lambda/D. Pupil-plane apodization is achieved with PIAA-style mirror apodizations we obtain using a formalism we have developed to simultaneously optimize the contrast and low-order aberration sensitivity of coronagraphs designed for arbitrary telescope pupils and dark-hole geometries. By using PIAA to apodize in the pupil plane, the PIAA-Vortex coronagraph mitigates the trade-off between planet throughput, IWA, and aberration sensitivity, resulting in significantly higher yields for coronagraphs on obstructed pupils and new opportunities to maximize our ability to detect biomarkers in the Astro2020 era.

Kevin Fogarty↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of cubic Li$_{2}$$^{100}$MoO$_4$ crystals for the CUPID experiment

The CUPID Collaboration is designing a tonne-scale, background-free detector to search for double beta decay with sufficient sensitivity to fully explore the parameter space corresponding to the inverted neutrino mass hierarchy scenario. One of the CUPID demonstrators, CUPID-Mo, has proved the potential of enriched Li$_{2}$$^{100}$MoO$_4$ crystals as suitable detectors for neutrinoless double beta decay search. In this work, we characterised cubic crystals that, compared to the cylindrical crystals used by CUPID-Mo, are more appealing for the construction of tightly packed arrays. We measured an average energy resolution of (6.7$\pm$0.6) keV FWHM in the region of interest, approaching the CUPID target of 5 keV FWHM. We assessed the identification of $\alpha$ particles with and without a reflecting foil that enhances the scintillation light collection efficiency, proving that the baseline design of CUPID already ensures a complete suppression of this $\alpha$-induced background contribution. We also used the collected data to validate a Monte Carlo simulation modelling the light collection efficiency, which will enable further optimisations of the detector.

100Mo↗
DOE OSTI2022

All-sky Medium Energy Gamma-ray Observatory eXplorer mission concept

The All-sky Medium Energy Gamma-ray Observatory eXplorer (AMEGO-X) is designed to identify and characterize gamma rays from extreme explosions and accelerators. The main science themes include supermassive black holes and their connections to neutrinos and cosmic rays; binary neutron star mergers and the relativistic jets they produce; cosmic ray particle acceleration sources including galactic supernovae; continuous monitoring of other astrophysical events and sources over the full sky in this important energy range. AMEGO-X will probe the medium energy gamma-ray band using a single instrument with sensitivity up to an order of magnitude greater than previous telescopes in the energy range 100 keV to 1 GeV that can be only realized in space. Finally, during its 3-year baseline mission, AMEGO-X will observe nearly the entire sky every two orbits, building up a sensitive all-sky map of gamma-ray sources and emissions. AMEGO-X was submitted in the recent 2021 NASA MIDEX announcement of opportunity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial measurement of reactor antineutrino oscillation at SNO+

The SNO+ collaboration reports its first spectral analysis of long-baseline reactor antineutrino oscillation using 114 tonne-years of data. Fitting the neutrino oscillation probability to the observed energy spectrum yields constraints on the neutrino mass-squared difference Δ$m^2_{21}$. In the ranges allowed by previous measurements, the best-fit Δ$m^2_{21}$ is ($8.85^{+1.10}_{-1.33}$) × 10 -5 eV 2 . This measurement is continuing in the next phases of SNO+ and is expected to surpass the present global precision on Δ$m^2_{21}$ with about three years of data. In the following, we first describe the configuration of the SNO+ detector when it was partially filled with scintillator, and a characterization of the detector response using intrinsic radioactivity. Next, we detail the event selection and expectations for reactor IBDs and (α, n) reactions. Then, we present the results of an energy spectrum analysis using 114 tonne-years of data. We conclude with prospects of future results from the SNO+ detector, which has been operating fully-filled with 780 tonnes of scintillator

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Detector Characterization for SuperCDMS Commissioning

Super Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (SuperCDMS) SNOLAB is a next generation direct detection experiment search ing for low mass dark matter using cryogenic germanium and silicon detectors operated at millikelvin temperatures. As the experiment begins its first commissioning data taking, establishing that the detectors respond to energy deposits in a stable, predictable way is a prerequisite for any future physics analysis. This work presents a study of detector stability for four SuperCDMS SNOLAB detectors, det 7 and det 15 (germanium), and det 11 and det 14 (silicon), using two data sets taken during early commissioning: dedicated Barium-133 calibration runs, which provide a known gamma ray energy reference at 356 keV, and low background runs, which record whatever background radiation the detectors see with no external source present. The Ba-133 data do not show a distinct, well localized line at the expected energy, and the low background data show a baseline that drifts and oscillates over time rather than remaining flat. This baseline instability appears consistently across multiple channels rather than being confined to one, suggesting a shared, detector wide cause rather than a single faulty channel. Together, these observations point to the detectors’ cryogenic support system as the likely source of the instability, since small temperature fluctuations introduced during normal operation of the cooling system could plausibly couple into the exquisitely temperature sensitive detectors. These results inform the ongoing commissioning effort by narrowing down where instability in the current data is originating from.

O'Hanlon, Viktoria M. [Skidmore Coll.; Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Detector Characterization for SuperCDMS Commissioning

Super Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (SuperCDMS) SNOLAB is a next generation direct detection experiment search ing for low mass dark matter using cryogenic germanium and silicon detectors operated at millikelvin temperatures. As the experiment begins its first commissioning data taking, establishing that the detectors respond to energy deposits in a stable, predictable way is a prerequisite for any future physics analysis. This work presents a study of detector stability for four SuperCDMS SNOLAB detectors, det 7 and det 15 (germanium), and det 11 and det 14 (silicon), using two data sets taken during early commissioning: dedicated Barium-133 calibration runs, which provide a known gamma ray energy reference at 356 keV, and low background runs, which record whatever background radiation the detectors see with no external source present. The Ba-133 data do not show a distinct, well localized line at the expected energy, and the low background data show a baseline that drifts and oscillates over time rather than remaining flat. This baseline instability appears consistently across multiple channels rather than being confined to one, suggesting a shared, detector wide cause rather than a single faulty channel. Together, these observations point to the detectors’ cryogenic support system as the likely source of the instability, since small temperature fluctuations introduced during normal operation of the cooling system could plausibly couple into the exquisitely temperature sensitive detectors. These results inform the ongoing commissioning effort by narrowing down where instability in the current data is originating from.

O'Hanlon, Viktoria M. [Skidmore Coll.; Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced shear stabilization of turbulence in NSTX

In studying a particular non-stationary NSTX L-mode plasma, we observed unexpectedly high levels of flux—first with quasilinear (TGLF) modeling and subsequently with nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations. Upon more detailed analysis, a novel confinement regime was discovered in which a modest increase in E x B shear (beyond baseline experimental estimates) rapidly reduced turbulent transport to levels consistent with power balance. This modest increase is plausible given the errors inherent to the estimation of shearing rates, and the added complexity of the non-stationary (time-dependent) power balance. Remarkably, an additional small increase in shear yields the familiar ion-neoclassical transport level with what appears to be the onset of high-k electron transport only. Although analyses using the TGLF-SAT2 model successfully capture numerous parametric dependencies of this plasma, TGLF does not reproduce the rapid E x B stabilization seen in CGYRO. We believe the results presented should help to better characterize the nonlinear physics of spherical tokamak confinement regimes, provide useful ST datasets for reduced model development, and motivate more accurate experimental diagnosis of E x B shearing rates.

Atomic and molecular collisions↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of Ga 2 O 3 as a new transparent conductive oxide for photovoltaics applications

This small innovation project intended to leverage recent activity and advances in ultrawide-bandgap oxide power electronics toward the investigation of Ga 2 O 3 as a transparent conductive oxide (TCO) for use in photovoltaics (PV). Ga 2 O 3 ’s theoretical advantage over incumbent TCOs is its very large bandgap of 4.8 eV, ensuring optical transparency of photons with λ ≥ 260 nm, effectively the full terrestrial solar spectrum. At the time of proposal writing, literature on Ga 2 O 3 as a TCO/optical material was relatively sparse — what little existed was focused on for UV sensors and/or emitters, with none related to PV. As such, this project was intended to help determine the potential of Ga 2 O 3 as a PV-oriented TCO by investigating its deposition using tools common to the PV and electronics industries — atomic layer deposition (ALD) and RF sputtering (RS), both of which are already used in PV manufacturing — and its resultant optical and electronic properties. Final project goals were to test its application to Si and III-V solar cells. Controllable film thickness and excellent uniformity was established for both methods deposition methods, with ALD providing higher precision for thinner films and RS more effective for growing thicker films. The as-deposited films were found to be amorphous in nature. Spectroscopic ellipsometry (SE) confirmed bandgaps of at least 4.8 eV and non-parasitic absorption across both AM0 and AM1.5G spectra; a refractive index approaching the expected value of 1.8 was also observed, with some degree of tunability based on process parameters. Using this initial optical data, a transfer matrix model, which interfaces with in-house EQE and LIV models, was developed to simulate Ga 2 O 3 optical effects on various solar cells, included potential in antireflection coatings (ARCs). Despite promising optical properties, the resultant resistivity / conductivity metrics did not meet expectations, regardless of deposition process. Although thick RS-deposited films, using both undoped and 1 at% Ge (n-type) doped sintered targets — demonstrated high net carrier concentrations (via C-V), and low specific resistance Ohmic contacts were demonstrated, transmission line measurements (TLM) showed very high resistivity. Further analysis indicated high vertical film conductivity, but very low lateral conductivity. Deeper characterization revealed a relatively high density of nano/microcrystalline inclusions that were ostensibly the source of the vertical conductivity, with the amorphous matrix serving as an effective insulator (likely due to high concentrations of electronic trap states). Despite extensive work to increase film polycrystallinity — demonstrated via high temperature annealing — sufficient lateral conductivity for TCO use was not achieved. The final phase of the project shifted focus toward investigation of ALD-deposited Ga 2 O 3 ’s potential as a passivant and/or passivating contact for both Si and III-V solar cells, with expectation of performance similar to Al 2 O 3 . However, initial rounds of testing using our baseline ALD process yielded minimal (but not quite zero) passivation of both GaInP and Si surfaces. Dielectric passivation is well-known to be highly process sensitive; given the unoptimized nature of the process used, this work was deemed inconclusive. The final outlook with respect to feasibility of Ga 2 O 3 as a PV-oriented TCO is, ultimately, still uncertain. The work performed in this project confirmed the optical properties and deposition methods, but the achieved electrical properties do not meet technological needs; literature reports in recent years are somewhat inconsistent and potentially untrustworthy, but generally appear to be in line with our results. At the very least it is clear that, should Ga 2 O 3 still be under consideration for PV TCO and/or selective contact applications, a significant amount of optimization and study is still needed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The All-sky Medium Energy Gamma-ray Observatory eXplorer (AMEGO-X) Mission Concept

The All-sky Medium Energy Gamma-ray Observatory eXplorer (AMEGO-X) is designed to identify and characterize gamma rays from extreme explosions and accelerators. The main science themes include: supermassive black holes and their connections to neutrinos and cosmic rays; binary neutron star mergers and the relativistic jets they produce; cosmic ray particle acceleration sources including Galactic supernovae; and continuous monitoring of other astrophysical events and sources over the full sky in this important energy range. AMEGO-X will probe the medium energy gamma-ray band using a single instrument with sensitivity up to an order of magnitude greater than previous telescopes in the energy range 100 keV to 1 GeV that can be only realized in space. During its three-year baseline mission, AMEGO-X will observe nearly the entire sky every two orbits, building up a sensitive all-sky map of gamma-ray sources and emission. AMEGO-X was submitted in the recent 2021 NASA MIDEX Announcement of Opportunity.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2018

Printed Circuit Board Inspection and Quality Control - PCB Failure Causes and Cures

This two day workshop will discuss a range of topics, including root cause analysis, physics-of-failure principles and failure mechanisms in printed circuit boards. Printed circuit boards (PCBs) are the baseline for electronics manufacturing upon which electronic components are mounted and formed into electronic systems. PCBs are used in a variety of electronic circuits from simple one-transistor amplifiers to large super computers. A PCB serves three main functions: 1) it provides the necessary mechanical support for the components in the circuit 2) it provides the necessary electrical interconnections, and 3) it bears some form of legend which identifies the components it carries. The failure modes on the PCBs can be categorized in a hierarchical structure, in which the mechanisms and causes are site or location dependant. Specimen preparation techniques, non-destructive and destructive analysis, and materials characterization will also be discussed. The first day of the workshop will present methodologies for identifying potential failure mechanisms in electronics based on the failure history and, systematic approaches to root cause analysis. The second day will cover failure analysis techniques geared towards various failure mechanisms, along with numerous component and PCB assembly failure analysis case studies that illustrate the techniques and analysis. Failure analysis case studies will be used to illustrate the techniques and analysis principles to arrive at the root cause(s) of field failures on printed circuit boards, active components, and assemblies.

Printed circuit boards↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fabrication of Advanced Nanocarbon-Metal Composites for Improved Energy Efficiency

We fabricated nanocarbon metal composites (NCMC) of Al alloys with a process called “electrocharging assisted process” (EAP). This method consists of the application of a high current to a mixture of liquid metal and carbon particles. We investigated aluminum alloys (6061 and 1350) and used activated carbon and graphite powder as the source of carbon. The high current induces the formation of carbon chains and ribbons in the liquid metal. Upon solidification of the metal an epitaxial relation between the carbon nanostructures and the metal lattice is produced. The purpose of the project was to find the parameters during the reaction that would give rise to a high density of nanoribbons extending throughout the metal such that the electrical conductivity and the mechanical strength of the composite increased and that the method could be extended to large scale manufacturing. For this purpose, we designed two reactors for the incorporation of nanocarbon ribbons in aluminum metal. The first reactor was designed to have more control of the region with the high current density. However, there were problems with getting good mixing of the carbon in small volumes. A second reactor was designed with a stirrer that allowed for better mixing of the carbon by the introduction of argon gas through the shaft of the stirrer. NCMC were fabricated with a series of parameters to understand the role of current, time of applied current, type and shape of the cathode electrode and stirring speed of the mixture. We analyzed the composites by Raman scattering to gain information on the crystallite size of the nanocarbon, XRD to obtain the crystal structure of the composite, SEM and TEM to characterize the grain size of the aluminum grains and the quality of the crystal structure. We also measured the electrical conductivity and mechanical properties of selected samples. The nanocomposites showed increase in crystallite size of the nanocarbon with a linear dependence of the crystallite size on the duration of the applied current. There is a minimum current density necessary for the crystallite size to increase compared to the ~ 10 nm size of the activated carbon source used in the fabrication. The electrical conductivity of the nanocomposites increased with crystallite size of the nanocarbon and with the concentration of converted carbon. The maximum increase in electrical conductivity was 5.7% above the baseline for samples with ~ 4 wt % nanocarbon with crystallite size larger than 30 nm. These samples presented a hardness ~ 8% higher than the baseline samples with no carbon.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

First Measurements of Differential Cross Sections In Kinematic Imbalance Variables With The MicroBooNE Detector

Making high-precision measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters requires an unprecedented understanding of neutrino-nucleus scattering. In this presentation, we present the first muon neutrino charged current double-differential cross sections in kinematic imbalance variables. These variables characterize the imbalance in the plane transverse to an incoming neutrino. We use events with a single muon above 100 MeV/c, a single final state proton above 300 MeV/c, and no recorded final state pions. Thus, these variables act as a direct probe of nuclear effects such as final state interactions, Fermi motion, and multi-nucleon processes. We also present a complementary ongoing analysis using electron neutrinos. This channel is of the utmost importance for the extraction of neutrino oscillation parameters by making high-precision measurements. Our measurements allow us to constrain systematic uncertainties associated with neutrino oscillation results performed by near-future experiments of the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program, as well as by future large-scale experiments like DUNE.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

CCQE-like $\nu_{e}$ Selection in SBND using Convolutional Visual Network

Neutrinos from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) at Fermilab interact with argon in a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) differently based on their flavour. By examining the particles produced in a charged-current interaction, both the interaction type and the neutrino flavour can be inferred. The Short Baseline Near Detector has the largest neutrino-argon cross section data to date, motivating in-depth studies of various cross-section channels and topologies. This project aims to select electron neutrino quasi-elastic-like (QE-like) interactions in SBND using Convolutional Visual Network (CVN) scores. The CVN is a neural network that processes visual information from an event and assigns scores corresponding to its likelihood of being each interaction type. An inclusive study of electron neutrino charged current interactions using CVN has already been conducted. This analysis aims to build on this study, further utilizing CVN scores to isolate electron neutrino QE-like interactions characterized by the presence of an electron and one or more protons ($N > 0$) in the final state. The project s goal is to contribute to the overall cross-section measurement efforts within the SBN program at Fermilab.

Breen, Genevieve [Mt. Holyoke Coll.]↗
NASA NTRS2020

An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence

We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S . This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult‐to‐quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6‐3.9 K for our Baseline calculation, and remains within 2.3‐4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5‐95% ranges are 2.3‐4.7 K, bounded by 2.0‐5.7 K (although such high‐confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent, and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S , in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing‐feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.

Climate↗