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At least 919 records · Page 51

Warming Overwhelms the Efficacy of Wet Conditions to Moderate Extreme Heat and Atmospheric Aridity Across the Central Plains

While the relationships between dry land surface conditions, heat, and aridity have been well-established, few studies have addressed whether global warming will affect the ability of wet conditions to moderate high temperatures and atmospheric aridity. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models, we demonstrate that absolute changes in the monthly maximum temperature distribution during Central North American summers strongly outweigh the historical cooling effect of high precipitation and soil moisture conditions. Although wet conditions nearly always prevent concurrent extreme temperatures in the baseline period, these conditions are 40%–48% and 96%–98% less effective at 1 and 2° of global warming, respectively. However, high precipitation and soil moisture partially retain the ability to constrain concurrent high vapor pressure deficit conditions below historical thresholds at 1–2° of warming. Our results highlight the growing vulnerability of Central North America to warmer temperatures and drier atmospheric conditions, even during periods of high precipitation and soil moisture.

global warming↗

CubeSAT Security Attack Tree Analysis

Once a novelty, small satellites, often referred to as CubeSats, have become important tools for a variety of space activities ranging from exploration to defense. Their relative affordability and short development timeline have made them attractive options to complement larger space vehicles, conduct reconnaissance and other finite tasks. The specialized nature of many CubeSat missions do not make their security any less important as their missions could easily be matters of national security. This paper demonstrates the use of attack tree analysis to assess vulnerabilities of a CubeSat. First, we abstract and build an architectural model of an operational CubeSat. We then create a series of attack trees for the abstracted architecture to illustrate a series of potential attack vectors for small satellites. We conclude by discussing some strategies that could be employed to improve CubeSat resilience.

Santangelo, Andrew↗

Research Report: Progress on Building a File Observatory for Secure Parser Development

Parsing untrusted data is notoriously challenging.Failure to handle maliciously crafted data correctly can (anddoes) lead to a wide range of vulnerabilities. The Languagetheoretic security (LangSec) philosophy seeks to obviate the needfor developers to apply ad hoc solutions by, instead, offeringformally correct and verifiable input handling throughout thesoftware development lifecycle. One of the key components indeveloping secure parsers is a broad coverage corpus that enablesdevelopers to understand the problem space for a given formatand to use, potentially, as seeds for fuzzing and other automatedtesting. In this paper, we offer an update on work reportedat the LangSec 2021 conference on the development of a fileobservatory to gather and enable analysis on a diverse collectionof files at scale. The initial focus of the observatory is on PortableDocument Format (PDF) files and file formats typically embeddedin PDFs. In this paper, we report on refactoring the ingestprocess, applying new analytic methods, and improving the User Interface.

Stonebraker, Ryan↗

Georgia Disasters II: Evaluating the Impacts of Hurricane Irma on Georgia Heirs Property Owners Using NASA Earth Observations

Heirs property owners are especially vulnerable to natural and manmade disasters. This group of people have inherited property left with no clear title and thus have unclear group ownership with the other legal owners, which are all spouses, children, etc. of past owners. After Hurricane Irma made landfall in Georgia in September of 2017, heirs property owners became more likely to be denied access to federal relief due to the legal status of their property title. To observe how this group was impacted by Hurricane Irma, the NASA DEVELOP team partnered with The Georgia Heirs Property Law Center (The Center), a non-profit law firm that works with heirs properties owners. The team used computer assisted mass appraisal (CAMA) data to identify likely heirs property owners. They cross referenced this map with a flood map produced with surface reflectance and backscatter imagery from Landsat 8 OLI, Sentinel-2 MSI, and Sentinel-1 C-SAR, sensors to identify communities in need of relief or assistance. The flood extent maps were validated against United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hurricane Irma High Water Mark in situ data taken the same day Irma crossed into Georgia. To further evaluate the impacted group, the team correlated the flood and heirs property likelihood maps to FEMA denials based on titles issues. The team’s end products were handed off to the Georgia Heirs Property Law Center for use in community outreach, educational materials, and to help direct where The Center can work to prioritize its limited legal resources.

Shakirah Rogers↗

Real-Time Considerations for A Source-Time Dominant Auralization Scheme

A well-designed recording system can capture a moving source without risk of distortions, knowledge of the source or path, or transmission of information back to the source (i.e., a smartphone can reasonably record a plane flying overhead). This necessarily happens in real time. It would be good if signal processing schemes for auralization possessed these properties. Recent work on the NoTAP method of auralization proposed an asynchronous sample rate conversion scheme that keeps track of the (nonuniform) rate of incoming samples to formulate an effective incoming sampling frequency. This value allows the method to predict what frequency regions at the receiver are vulnerable to aliasing or imaging artifacts. Strategies of oversampling and filtering can be used to eliminate these problem regions while preserving as much of the original content as possible given the desired receiver sampling frequency. This approach creates a situation where the receiver processing can run independently of the source/path processing making it attractive for real-time implementation. This presentation discusses the challenges associated with producing a truly real-time scheme. A three-way tradeoff emerges between an interpolation mechanism that generates decorrelated noise, the computational burden, and the nearness to absolute real-time with which one wants the scheme to run.

Auralization↗

Mars 2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing System Software Implementation

On February 18th, 2021, the Mars 2020 project's Perseverance Rover successfully touched down on the Martian surface after nearly eight years of development. The Mars 2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) System largely leveraged heritage from the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) EDL System while employing targeted technological advancements. The landing process is autonomously directed by a software behavior implemented in the rover's primary flight computer called the EDL Timeline that assumes control of the vehicle six days before atmospheric entry. This paper first walks through the basics of the EDL Timeline mechanics and how the behavior is designed to account for internal system variations and environmental unknowns. It then summarizes the interactions between the EDL timeline and other high-level system behaviors like spacecraft mode transitions and system fault protection, focusing on the complications that arise when passing spacecraft control between executive functions. Although the MSL-inherited EDL System is reliable and capable, targeted updates and a thorough verification and validation program were required for Mars 2020. This paper discusses changes made to close vulnerabilities discovered during both MSL and Mars 2020 development cycles, landing system capability enhancements that were enabling for Mars 2020's mission, and how these updates were integrated with the heritage system. It then describes how both analysis and testing campaigns were utilized to verify and validate all aspects of EDL and system behaviors that run during the six days before landing, as well as the operational workarounds that were needed to address problems found during the development and commissioning process. Finally, this paper imparts lessons learned from Mars 2020 EDL development, implementation, and operations, emphasizing how systems designed to conduct time-critical mission events with low margin of error can be improved in the future.

Stehura, Aaron↗

Mars 2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing Software Implementation

On February 18th, 2021, the Mars 2020 project's Perseverance Rover successfully touched down on the Martian surface after nearly eight years of development. The Mars 2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) System largely leveraged heritage from the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) EDL System while employing targeted technological advancements. The landing process is autonomously directed by a software behavior implemented in the rover's primary flight computer called the EDL Timeline that assumes control of the vehicle six days before atmospheric entry. In addition to performing the critical function of landing the rover on the Martian surface, the EDL timeline behavior must co-exist in a non-partitioned software and system environment with other high-level functions that accomplish the goals for the rest of the mission. Due to the criticality of EDL, the potential for loss of mission, and a need for complete system autonomy, the standard for how the EDL Timeline interacts with other functions in the system is highly constrained. This paper first walks through the basics of the EDL Timeline mechanics and how the behavior is designed to account for internal system variations and environmental unknowns. It then summarizes the interactions between the EDL timeline and other high-level system behaviors like spacecraft mode transitions and system fault protection, focusing on the complications that arise when passing spacecraft control between executive functions. Although the MSL-inherited EDL System is reliable and capable, targeted updates and a thorough verification and validation program were required for Mars 2020. This paper discusses changes made to close vulnerabilities discovered during both MSL and Mars 2020 development cycles, landing system capability enhancements that were enabling for Mars 2020's mission, and how these updates were integrated with the heritage system. It then describes how both analysis and testing campaigns were utilized to verify and validate all aspects of EDL and system behaviors that run during the six days before landing, as well as the operational workarounds that were needed to address problems found during the development and commissioning process. Finally, this paper imparts lessons learned from Mars 2020 EDL development, implementation, and operations, emphasizing how systems designed to conduct time-critical mission events with low margin of error can be improved in the future.

Stehura, Aaron↗

Cross-Cutting Flight Infrastructure Improvements on M2020

Mars2020 (M2020) was formulated as a mission that leveraged as much Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) heritage as possible, while focusing major new development efforts on the original and unique elements needed to accomplish the different mission objectives. Well publicized examples of high profile new developments include precision landing, the sampling and caching system, the specific instrument suite, improved mobility via Autonomous Navigation, and later the addition of the Ingenuity helicopter. Less well known are the refinements to the core flight infrastructure, primarily in the cross-cutting functions of Telecom, Avionics, Data Management, Communications Behaviors, and Parameter Management. These enhancements are introduced predominately via flight software, and represent increases in capability that justified their inclusion in an otherwise heritage-focused project environment.Perseverance’s cross-cutting flight infrastructure improvements fall into and across the following five categories. First is a trimming of the software footprint of infrastructure modules, in order to make room for memory demands elsewhere in the system. Second is the minimization of data volume to be downlinked, through various methods such as the incorporation of new compression options. Third is the maximization of the available downlink bandwidth for data, by curtailing content-less data (fill) and introducing an improved UHF proximity link protocol. Fourth is a reduction in vulnerabilities, through increased file system redundancy, robustness, and software process monitoring. Fifth is an increase in operations efficiency by lowering file system mount times, improving parallelism between simultaneous events, minimizing the time to recover from file system errors, streamlining the purging of obsolete data, and reducing the number of commands to service parameters by a factor of 100.Individually, none of the cross-cutting infrastructure improvements are likely to garner headlines, but collectively they appreciably improve the safety and operability of Perseverance over its predecessor. This paper will describe the improvements, their promise, and where applicable, their actual impact in operations.

Bohannon, Emily↗

Power Operations of the Mars Exploration Rovers

The rovers of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) project, Spirit (MER-A) and Opportunity (MER-B), safely landed on the surface of Mars three weeks apart during January 2004. Spirit and Opportunity were built and operated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), which is managed by the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) for NASA. Spirit landed at Gusev Crater, 14.8 degrees south of the equator, and operated continuously on the surface of Mars from January 4, 2004 until last contact from Spirit on March 22, 2010. Opportunity landed at Meridiani Planum, a location 2.5 degrees south of the Martian equator. Opportunity operated continuously on the Martian surface from January 25, 2004 until the last received transmission from Opportunity on June 10, 2018. The goal of the MER project was to determine if Mars ever had a habitable environment, in particular, if it ever had water. During their missions, both Spirit and Opportunity found evidence that liquid water once flowed on the surface of Mars. Both Spirit and Opportunity used a 1.33 m2 triple-junction solar array as their power sources. Based on observations of the original Mars rover, the Sojourner rover of the Mars Pathfinder mission that landed on Mars on July 4, 1997, the expectation was that the Martian dust would rapidly accumulate on the solar arrays of Spirit and Opportunity, and that the rovers would not have enough energy to continue operations after 90 Martian days (sols). Instead, due in part to lower dust accumulation rates than expected and numerous dust cleaning events, the Spirit and Opportunity rovers continued to operate on the Martian surface for over 2000 sols (MER-A) and 5000 sols (MER-B), respectively. During this time, the rovers experienced multiple Martian winters and several dust storms. Because the sources of solar array energy loss were known, the solar array energy output offered a method to scientifically estimate the loading and aeolian removal of dust from the solar arrays each sol. The MER Power operations team called this value that they calculated the solar array Dust Factor (DF). Dust Factor was defined as the fraction of sunlight that penetrates the accumulated dust on the surface of the solar array. A Dust Factor of 1.0 would indicate that the solar array was perfectly clean. A Dust Factor of 0.6 would indicate that only 60% of the available sunlight was able to penetrate the accumulated dust on the solar arrays. The MER Power subsystem operations team used the Multi-Mission Power Analysis Tool (MMPAT) to perform these Dust Factor calculations. The MMPAT software tool modeled the behavior of the solar arrays and the batteries as they interacted with the spacecraft power loads over the mission timeline. MMPAT also had knowledge (through telemetry and user inputs) of telemetered Power subsystem voltages and currents, atmospheric opacity (Tau), rover surface location, rover attitude, the planetary tilt and distance of Mars from the sun based on day of year, the instantaneous elevation of the sun based on time of day, temperatures (internal and external), terrain masking, and shadowing (due to the camera mast and antennas). Once all of the known sources of array energy loss are accounted, the remaining difference between the expected array energy and the actual array energy determines the solar array Dust Factor. The assumptions made while determining the Dust Factor are 1) that the single measured atmospheric opacity value (Tau) is constant over the course of the entire sol, 2) there is no measurable solar cell degradation, 3) there are no shorted strings and therefore, 4) all unexpected solar array energy losses are due to accumulated dust on the solar array. Although it cannot provide an absolute measure of dust loading, the determination of solar array Dust Factor provides a useful way of tracking dust accumulation and aeolian dust removal trends on Martian spacecraft. Any spacecraft on the Martian surface is vulnerable to dust, especially solar-powered spacecraft. The Spirit and Opportunity rovers were operational on the Martian surface for much longer than expected due in part to aeolian removal of dust from their solar arrays. The first few dust removal events were a pleasant surprise to the MER operations teams; however, over time a pattern began to arise. In over three Mars Years on the surface, the Power operations team tracked the solar array Dust Factor at Gusev Crater (location of MER-A) and observed that there were several significant dust removal and deposition events in Mars Year (MY) 27, even in the absence of a large dust storm. In MY 28 at Gusev Crater, the large atmospheric opacity (Tau) increase lagged significant dust removal events. Overall at Gusev Crater, there was a pattern of steady dust accumulation on the solar arrays, with a small number of significant dust cleaning events. At Meridiani Planum, where Opportunity rover operated for over seven Mars Years (late MY 26 to mid MY 34), a clear and consistent pattern of dust movement emerged. Meridiani Planum had a predictable, seasonally dependent pattern of gradual and continuous dust accumulation and removal. In summary, this paper explains the reasons for the development of the solar array Dust Factor and how it was used in mission operations. In particular, this paper describes the MMPAT software package, how it models array energy, including the important assumptions, model inputs and sources of error. And finally, this paper will show how the calculated solar array Dust Factor was used at Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum to predict dust accumulation rates and weather patterns, and the importance of this generated data set for current and future solar- powered missions to Mars, such as the InSight lander and the planned Mars Sample Return rover.

Chin, Keith B.↗

Remote Sensing of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) Stocks, Fluxes and Transformations Along the Land-Ocean Aquatic Continuum: Advances, Challenges, and Opportunities

From stream headwaters to the deep ocean, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is ubiquitous across the world’s aquatic systems, where it fulfills important biogeochemical and ecological functions. Importantly, DOC is a dynamic component of the carbon cycle and represents a global reservoir (mass of carbon) equivalent in size to the atmospheric CO 2 pool. The mobilization, transport, and transformations of DOC along the land-ocean aquatic continuum biogeochemically connect terrestrial landscapes, freshwater and marine ecosystems, and the atmosphere. As a result, DOC budgets are vulnerable to climate- and human-driven changes. Having the ability to quantify DOC stocks, fluxes, and transformations consistently and accurately in aquatic systems is therefore critical to our understanding of DOC’s functions in the environment and of their susceptibility to change. In recent years, optical techniques and synoptic earth observations have opened new doors to achieve this objective on a global scale. In this review, we explore how in situ measurements, earth observations, and the models they inform have facilitated the large-scale quantification of DOC stocks, fluxes, and transformations along the land-ocean aquatic continuum and how they have helped shape our current understanding of the global DOC cycle. The review also explores the limitations and challenges we still face today, and discusses how upcoming and future sensors are expected to provide new insights into our understanding of the global DOC cycle.

Dissolved organic carbon↗

AMEBoP: Additive Manufacturing Enabled Biofilm Prevention

Objective: Leverage additive manufacturing to fortify Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) manifolds and other vulnerable components against biofilm growth during dormancy by eliminating dead legs to reduce total stagnate fluid volume and available nutrients and by printing from inherently biocidal materials.

ECLSS↗

Mitigating Microbial Contamination Risks in CO 2 Removal Systems for Long-Duration Space Missions

Crewed missions to Mars and beyond pose new challenges for the crew and the technological solutions they depend upon. Crucial considerations in designing the next generation of Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) include enhanced reliability and autonomy, given the challenges of resupply and resource recovery in remote missions. One significant challenge faced in various sectors of the International Space Station and ECLSS is the phenomena of microbial growth, particularly biofilm formation. As such, microbial growth is a critical consideration in the design phase of new ECLSS systems. Two novel CO2 removal systems—Liquid-Amines CO2 Removal (LACR) and Cold-Surface CO2 Deposition (CDep)—are currently under development at the NASA Ames Research Center to meet the needs of extended space travel. In this presentation, the authors aim to make a risk assessment of microbial growth in LACR and CDep through: 1) a comprehensive literature review to identify LACR and CDep components most vulnerable to microbial contamination and 2) wet lab testing commencing with a subscale test of the most susceptible component of CDep. The literature review revealed that the hollow-fiber Liqui-Cel membrane employed in CDep exhibits the highest susceptibility to microbial growth. Our wet lab tests corroborated these findings, as airborne microbes introduced into the membrane led to considerable biomass accumulation. These results indicate a significant risk of microbial invasion into the membranes. To prevent microbial growth in CDep or other CO2 removal systems, proper ECLSS arrangement is essential—a CO2 removal system should remain behind the charcoal-HEPA filters, condensing heat exchanger, and Trace Contaminant Control System. In summary, anticipating potential microbial interactions within ECLSS for remote crewed missions is vital to mission success. It should, therefore, be included as one of the many factors when designing future ECLSS systems to perform reliably and consistently to support astronaut life.

A. Nicolas Whitlock↗

Use of Tardigrade Proteins for Enhancing Cellular Stress Tolerance on the Moon

With sights set on returning a human presence to the Moon and plans to explore even farther beyond, it is imperative we understand the impact of deep space radiation, partial gravity, and the lunar surface on biology. The need for countermeasures to protect future astronauts from the unique conditions of space is ever-pressing and an assessment of bioproduction capabilities in space is a crucial step for sustaining long-term missions. The Lunar Explorer Instrument for space biology Applications (LEIA) aims to investigate the cell’s response to the lunar environment and test strategies for enhancing cellular tolerance on the Moon, utilizing the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae as a biosensor. S. cerevisiae serves as an excellent model organism due to its widespread use as an analog for human cells, well-characterized set of genetic tools, and ability to survive desiccation. However, these cells must remain desiccated for up to one year prior to launch and the radiation-sensitive strains designed for LEIA will likely be more vulnerable to desiccation effects. In this work, we introduce tardigrade proteins known for their protective mechanisms into potential LEIA strains to test genetic strategies for improving desiccation and radiation tolerance. Tardigrades are extremotolerant animals well-known for their ability to survive in harsh environments. Notably, they can survive extreme desiccation and radiation due to the upregulation of intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs). It has been shown that integration of these tardigrade IDPs, such as cytosolic abundant heat-soluble (CAHS) proteins, into yeast can confer increased desiccation tolerance in synergy with trehalose. Our ongoing testing and assessment of bioengineered radiation and desiccation tolerance will help us gain insight into optimizing strain design and selection for protecting LEIA’s biological payload as well as genetic engineering strategies for enhancing bioproduction potential for future missions beyond low Earth orbit.

Genetics↗

Anomaly Detection in Flight Operational Data Using Deep Learning

In this session, we demonstrate two recently developed deep learning models for anomaly detection in flight operational data by the Data Sciences Group at NASA Ames Research Center. The first model is Convolutional Variational Auto-Encoder (CVAE) [1], which is an unsupervised deep encoder-decoder model, designed specifically for finding anomalies in heterogeneous multivariate time series data. We will demonstrate its application to finding anomalies in streaming data from NASA’s Digital Information Platform’s Fuser source. CVAE identifies data instances that are not representative of expected nominal behavior as anomalous. Since it is an unsupervised approach, the flagged anomalies will need to be reviewed by the subject matter experts (SMEs) for validation and labeling and is designed to assist with vulnerability discovery within Safety Monitoring System programs. The second model is Robust and Explainable Semi-supervised Anomaly Detection (RESAD) model [2], which builds on CVAE to allow learning from both minimally labeled data (previously reviewed by the SMEs) as well as majority unlabeled data. RESAD takes advantage of graph theoretic techniques to propagate the labels from the labeled data to the unlabeled data based on a pre-defined similarity metric and structures the learned feature space from flight time-series so that data of the same class would cluster tightly together. This model characteristic is enabled by training with an augmented loss function and allows learning of a more informative feature space for down-stream tasks such as search and active learning. We demonstrate RESAD using data from the NASA DASHlink project [3].

anomaly detection↗

Computational Fluid Dynamics Models of the NASA White Sands Test Facility Particle Impact Test Nozzles

The particle impact ignition mechanism is considered to be the most effective means for igniting metals in gaseous oxygen environments and is a concern for every oxygen system. For this reason, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) commits a large amount of resources attempting to understand and defend against this phenomenon. The most practical means of accomplishing this is through extensive of testing. To this end, over the years NASA has developed and built a facility and various apparatuses to test material or component vulnerability to a particle impact ignition. In testing materials, NASA uses sub-sonic and supersonic nozzles to replicate the conditions that a material is expected to experience in service. However, challenges include obtaining an understanding of the gas dynamics and of the particle behavior through and up to the point of impact at the material under test. One means of addressing these challenges is the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). If a CFD model can be built and validated, the model can then be used to confidently interrogate changes to inlet conditions and particle geometries, as well as changes to nozzle geometries to better simulate a material’s in-situ conditions and greatly reduce or eliminate trial-and-error approaches in testing. This paper will show NASA’s approach to and results of using CFD to better understand their particle impact nozzles.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗

Approaching a Thermal Tipping Point in the Eurasian Boreal Forest at its Southern Margin

Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events. Ecological responses to extreme heat will depend on vegetation physiology and thermal tolerance. Here we report that Larix sibirica, a foundation species across boreal Eurasia, is vulnerable to extreme heat at its southern range margin due to its low thermal tolerance (T crit of photosynthesis: ~ 37–48 °C). Projections from CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) suggest that leaf temperatures might exceed the 25 th percentile of Larix sibirica’s T crit by two to three days per year within the next two to three decades (by 2050) under high emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). This degree of warming will threaten the biome’s continued ability to assimilate and sequester carbon. This work highlights that under high emission trajectories we may approach an abrupt ecological tipping point in southern boreal Eurasian forests substantially sooner than ESM estimates that do not consider plant thermal tolerance traits.

Boreal ecology↗

Rapidly Evolving Aerosol Emissions Are A Dangerous Omission From Near-Term Climate Risk Assessments

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near and far from emission sources. Under-resourced, highly populated regions often bear the brunt of aerosols' climate and air quality effects, amplifying risk through heightened exposure and vulnerability. However, many policy-facing evaluations of near-term climate risk, including those in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report, underrepresent aerosols' complex and regionally diverse climate effects, reducing them to a globally averaged offset to greenhouse gas warming. We argue that this constitutes a major missing element in society's ability to prepare for future climate change. We outline a pathway towards progress and call for greater interaction between the aerosol research, impact modeling, scenario development, and risk assessment communities.

anthropogenic aerosol↗

Warming Reduces the Efficacy of Wet Conditions to Moderate Extreme Heat and Atmospheric Aridity Across the Central Plains

In the literature, dry land surface conditions possess a well-established association with extreme heat and high atmospheric aridity, especially in regions that experience strong land-atmosphere feedbacks. However, few studies have examined whether global warming will impact the ability of wet conditions to constrain high temperatures and atmospheric aridity occurrences. Here we investigate how wet conditions, which we define using precipitation and soil moisture, constrain high temperature and high vapor pressure deficit during the warm season over the Central Plains in North America at different global warming levels (0-3 degrees K). Using a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, we show that absolute changes in the maximum temperature distribution outweigh the historical cooling effect of high precipitation or soil moisture conditions, reducing the probability of non-extreme maximum temperatures under global warming. Strikingly, the conditional likelihood of non-extreme maximum temperatures falls from 97-98% at baseline conditions to 50-58% at 1 degree of global warming. Once 2 degrees of warming is reached, there is very little probability of constraining extreme maximum temperatures. On the other hand, high precipitation and high soil moisture are able to better retain the ability to constrain concurrent high vapor pressure deficit conditions – moving from 99% at baseline conditions to 81-91% at 1 degree of warming and 26-42% at 2 degrees of warming. With our results, we find that the extent of this retention is dependent on how individual models represent relative changes in the VPD distribution as temperatures warm. Overall, our results highlight the growing vulnerability of the Central North American region to warmer temperatures and drier atmospheric conditions, even during periods of high precipitation and soil moisture.

Extreme heat↗