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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Dryland Farming Systems in Zimbabwe: A Stakeholder-Driven Integrated Multi-Model Assessment

Decision makers need accurate information to address climate variability and change and accelerate transformation to sustainability. A stakeholder-driven, science-based multi-model approach has been developed and used by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to generate actionable information for adaptation planning processes. For a range of mid-century climate projections—likely to be hotter, drier, and more variable—contrasting future socio-economic scenarios (Representative Agricultural Pathways, RAPs) were co-developed with stakeholders to portray a sustainable development scenario and a rapid economic growth pathway. The unique characteristic of this application is the integration of a multi-modeling approach with stakeholder engagement to co-develop scenarios and adaptation strategies. Distribution of outcomes were simulated with climate, crop, livestock, and economic impact assessment models for smallholder crop livestock farmers in a typical dryland agro-ecological zone in Zimbabwe, characterized by low and erratic rainfall and nutrient depleted soils. Results showed that in Nkayi District, Western Zimbabwe, climate change would threaten most of the farms, and, in particular, those with large cattle herds due to feed shortages. Adaptation strategies that showed the most promise included diversification using legume production, soil fertility improvement, and investment in conducive market environments. The switch to more legumes in the farming systems reduced the vulnerability of the very poor as well as the more resourced farmers. Overall, the sustainable development scenario consistently addressed institutional failures and motivated productivity-enhancing, environmentally sound technologies and inclusive development approaches. This yielded more favorable outcomes than investment in quick economic wins from commercializing agriculture.

Climate change adaptation↗
NASA NTRS1984

Relationship between Allan variances and Kalman Filter parameters

A relationship was constructed between the Allan variance parameters (H sub z, H sub 1, H sub 0, H sub -1 and H sub -2) and a Kalman Filter model that would be used to estimate and predict clock phase, frequency and frequency drift. To start with the meaning of those Allan Variance parameters and how they are arrived at for a given frequency source is reviewed. Although a subset of these parameters is arrived at by measuring phase as a function of time rather than as a spectral density, they all represent phase noise spectral density coefficients, though not necessarily that of a rational spectral density. The phase noise spectral density is then transformed into a time domain covariance model which can then be used to derive the Kalman Filter model parameters. Simulation results of that covariance model are presented and compared to clock uncertainties predicted by Allan variance parameters. A two state Kalman Filter model is then derived and the significance of each state is explained.

Vandierendonck, A. J.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Analytical Modeling of Cache Behavior for Affine Programs

Modern optimizing compiler design integrates program transformation strategies aimed at reducing data movement to/from main memory by exploiting the data cache hierarchy. But in reality, the effect of these transformations on the actual cache miss count is ignored in compilers due to the lack of precise compile-time models of misses for hierarchical caches. The current state of practice for cache miss analysis is based on accurate simulation. However, simulation requires time proportional to the dataset/problem size as well as the number of distinct cache configurations of interest to be evaluated. This paper takes a fundamentally different approach, made possible by focusing on polyhedral programs with static control flow: instead of relying on costly simulation, this paper develops the first closed-form solution for exact modeling of misses in a set-associative cache hierarchy. It enabling simulation-less selection of program transformations at compile-time to optimize cache misses. A push-button tool implementing the approach is developed and used for extensive validation of the complete framework.

affine programs, cache modeling, set associativity↗
DOE OSTI2026

Divergent carbon use efficiency-growth rate tradeoff in popular biological growth models

Carbon use efficiency (CUE) is an important trait emerging from processes regulating biological growth. CUE can be computed either based on the growth of structural biomass or total biomass divided by substrate uptake rate. Nonequilibrium thermodynamics and observations suggest that, for an exponentially growing population of cells, structural biomass CUE should first increase, then peak, and finally decrease with specific growth rate; meanwhile, total biomass CUE increases asymptotically with specific growth rate. We compared predictions from six popular models that are often used for plant and microbial growth in existing ecosystem models. We found that, for an exponentially growing population of biological cells, (1) the source-driven Pirt and Compromise models predict that structural biomass CUE increase asymptotically with growth rate; (2) the apparent sink-driven modified Droop model predicts that structural biomass CUE decreases with growth rate; and (3) the sink-driven variable internal storage model and two dynamic energy budget models predict that structural biomass CUE first increases, then peaks, and finally decreases with growth rate. Moreover, the modified Droop model predicts that total biomass CUE is constant with growth rate, while all other five models predict that total biomass CUE increases with growth rate asymptotically. For non-exponential biological growth, we show that there is no static relationship between total biomass CUE or structural biomass CUE with respect to either growth rate or temperature. Therefore, we contend that biological growth models should explicitly represent interactions between substrate acquisition, substate transformation, and maintenance respiration to better capture observed CUE dynamics, and the sink-driven model should be preferred for general ecosystem biogeochemistry modeling.

Tang, Jinyun [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗
NASA NTRS1994

Comprehensive stellar population models and the disentanglement of age and metallicity effects

The construction of detailed models for intermediate and old stellar populations is described. Input parameters include metallicity (-2 less than (Fe/H) less than 0.5), single-burst age (between 1.5 and 17 Gyr), and initial mass function (IMF) exponent. Quantities output include broadband magnitudes, spectral energy distributions, surface brightness fluctuation magnitudes, and a suite of 21 absorption feature indices. The models are checked against a wide variety of available observations. Examinations of model output yield the following conclusions. (1) If the percentage change delta age/delta Z approximately equals 3/2 for two populations, they will appear almost identical in most indices. A few indices break this degeneracy by being either more abundance sensitive (Fe4668, Fe5015, Fe5709, and Fe5782) or more age sensitive (G4300, H beta, and presumably higher order Balmer lines) than usual. (2) Present uncertainties in stellar evolution are of the same magnitude as the effects of IMF and Y in the indices studied. (3) Changes in abundance ratios (like (Mg/Fe)) are predicted to be readily apparent in the spectra of old stellar populations. (4) The I-band flux of a stellar population is predicted to be nearly independent of metallicity and only modestly sensitive to age. The I band is therefore recommended for standard candle work or studies of M/L in galaxies. Other conclusions stem from this work. (1) Intercomparison of models and observations of two TiO indices seem to indicate variation of the (V/Ti) ratio among galaxies, but it is not clear how this observation ties into the standard picture of chemical enrichment. (2) Current estimates of (Fe/H) for the most metal-rich globulars that are based on integrated indices are probably slightly too high. (3) Colors of population models from different authors exhibit a substantial range. At solar metallicity and 13 Gyr, this range corresponds to an age error of roughly +/- 7 Gyr. Model colors from different authors applied in a differential sense have smaller uncertainties. (4) In the present models the dominant error for colors is probably the transformation from stellar atmospheric parameters to stellar colors. (5) Stellar B - V is difficult to model, and current spreads among different authors can reach 0.2 mag. (6) If known defects in the stellar flux library are corrected, the population model colors of this work in passbands redder than U would be accurate to roughly 0.03 mag in an absolute sense. These corrections are not made in the tables of model output.

Worthey, Guy↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nanocrystal Geometry Governs Phase Transformation Pathways in Palladium Hydride

Pathways and structural dynamics of phase transformations impact performance of materials in energy and information storage technologies. Palladium hydride (PdH x ) nanocrystals are an ideal model system for studying solute-induced phase transformations, where elastic energy from lattice mismatch between α-PdH x and β-PdH x phases is often considered a key to determining the transformation pathways. α/β-PdH x interfacial elastic energy is affected by the confined geometry of a nanocrystal. However, how nanocrystal geometry influences phase transformation pathways is largely unknown. Using in situ liquid phase transmission electron microscopy, we directly visualize hydrogenation in Pd nanocrystals with two geometries, a nanocube and a hexagonal nanoplate. Both follow similar sequences of an initially curved nucleus, interface flattening, and reverse-stage nucleation; however, their evolving α/β-PdH x interfaces exhibit geometry-dependent crystallographic alignments. In nanocubes, {100}-aligned configurations conform to static elastic energy ordering, representing a pathway that maintains a local mechanical equilibrium, whereas nanoplates display both {110}- and {211}-aligned interfaces. Theoretical simulations show that geometry determines the accessibility of alternative phase transformation pathways as the system is driven far from equilibrium during hydrogenation. In conclusion, these findings identify geometry as a fundamental parameter for directing phase transformation pathways, offering design principles for accessing atypical configurations and improving properties of intercalation-based devices.

Lee, Daewon [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2021

End-to-End Differentiable Modeling and Management of the Environment

Focal Area: (2) Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization. We emphasize the importance of leveraging optimization techniques from AI/machine learning (ML) to solve challenging problems in Earth system modeling. Science Challenge: Automatic differentiation has had a transformative effect on ML by allowing the calculation of gradients of arbitrary functions in an incredibly large class of models. We can potentially realize similar improvements in parameter estimation and control for Earth system models (ESMs) by reimplementing them in computational frameworks from ML. Practitioners working with large (>10 7 parameters) models in ML and AI can obtain good predictive performance in a range of spatiotemporal tasks by making use of optimization via stochastic gradient descent and incorporating prior knowledge at multiple levels. We propose writing ESMs in open-source computational frameworks such as Torch, Tensorflow, and JAX to greatly expand the scope of environmental forecasting and management challenges, which can be addressed by leveraging automatic differentiation and gradient descent-like algorithms. We do not call for a wholesale replacement of physical models with data-driven surrogates, but rather advocate for interleaving physical and empirical equations in a manner that is most faithful to the extent of our scientific knowledge and observational data. Central to this topic is the merging of differentiable physical simulations with differentiable optimization layers, which are now both beginning to come to the forefront.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A theory of localized excitations in supercooled liquids

Here, a new connection between the structure and dynamics in glass-forming liquids is presented. We show how the origin of spatially localized excitations, as defined by the dynamical facilitation (DF) theory, can be understood from a structure-based framework. This framework is constructed by associating excitation events in the DF theory to hopping events between energy minima in the potential energy landscape (PEL). By reducing the PEL to an equal energy well picture and applying a harmonic approximation, we develop a field theory to describe elastic fluctuations about inherent states, which are energy minimizing configurations of the PEL. We model an excitation as a shear transformation zone (STZ) inducing a localized pure shear deformation onto an inherent state. We connect STZs to T1 transition events that break the elastic bonds holding the local structure of an inherent state. A formula for the excitation energy barrier, denoted as J σ , is obtained as a function of inherent-state elastic moduli and the radial distribution function. The energy barrier from the current theory is compared to the one predicted by the DF theory where good agreement is found in various two-dimensional continuous poly-disperse atomistic models of glass formers. These results strengthen the role of structure and elasticity in driving glassy dynamics through the creation and relaxation of localized excitations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of bacterial cell addition on Fe(III) reduction and soil organic matter transformation in a farmland soil

The coupled biogeochemical processes of Fe(III) reduction and organic matter transformation profoundly impact terrestrial carbon cycling. However, little is known about the microbial role in soil organic matter (SOM) transformation during Fe(III) bio-reduction. Here we investigated the bio-reduction behavior of a black farmland soil and corresponding SOM transformation under circumneutral and anoxic conditions. A model dissimilatory Fe reducing bacterium, Geobacter sulfurreducens, was added in either live or dead form in order to enhance Fe(III) reduction in soil and to evaluate the accompanying transformation of SOM. The progress of Fe reduction was monitored and SOM transformation was characterized by various spectroscopy methods. Results showed that addition of either dead or live G. sulfurreducens cells increased the Fe(III) reduction rate and extent. Without cell addition, SOM transformation was insignificant within 13 days of incubation, only with some consumption of aliphatic/protein compounds, apparently due to their higher bio-degradability. Addition of dead or live cells resulted in more drastic SOM transformation, but through different mechanisms. With dead cell amendment, cell necromass and debris stimulated the activity of indigenous soil microbes by serving as extra carbon/energy sources. During Fe(III) reduction, the aliphatic/protein compounds were preferentially consumed by indigenous microbial communities, similar to the treatment without cell addition but with a greater extent of consumption. In comparison, addition of live G. sulfurreducens cells stimulated degradation of less bioavailable compounds, including more saturated and higher molecular weight SOM. It is possible that fast depletion of labile SOM by live G. sulfurreducens cells favored utilization of less bioavailable molecules (such as those with more aromatic structures) by the originally dormant species in native microbial community, suggesting an active role of live Fe(III)-reducing bacteria in affecting SOM transformation. In addition, fast assimilation of microbial related carbon, such as aromatic proteins and microbial byproducts, into SOM pools was also observed. Overall, our results suggest that addition of Fe(III)-reducing bacteria to a native soil can enhance Fe(III) reduction and accelerate the turnover of SOM through various mechanisms. The study provides new insights into coupled Fe(III) reduction and SOM transformation, as well as the “priming effect” of SOM using microbial cells as substrate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

AI-assisted object condensation clustering for calorimeter shower reconstruction at CLAS12

Several nuclear physics studies using the CLAS12 detector rely on the accurate reconstruction of neutrons and photons from its forward angle calorimeter system. These studies often place restrictive cuts when measuring neutral particles due to an overabundance of false clusters created by the existing calorimeter reconstruction software. In this work, we present a new AI approach to clustering CLAS12 calorimeter hits based on the object condensation framework. The model learns a latent representation of the full detector topology using GravNet layers, serving as the positional encoding for an event’s calorimeter hits which are processed by a Transformer encoder. This unique structure allows the model to contextualize local and long range information, improving its performance. Evaluated on one million simulated $e^-$ $+$ $p$ collision events, our method significantly improves cluster trustworthiness: the fraction of reliable neutron clusters, increasing from 8.88% to 30.73%, and photon clusters, increasing from 51.07% to 64.73%. In conclusion, our study also marks the first application of AI clustering techniques for hodoscopic detectors, showing potential for usage in many other experiments.

Calorimeters↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance evaluations of signed and unsigned noisy approximate quantum Fourier arithmetic

The Quantum Fourier Transform (QFT) grants competitive advantages, especially in resource usage and circuit approximation, for performing arithmetic operations on quantum computers, and offers a potential route toward a numerical quantum-computational paradigm. In this paper, we utilize efficient techniques to implement QFT-based integer addition and multiplications. These operations are fundamental to various quantum applications including Shor’s algorithm, weighted-sum optimization problems in data processing and machine learning, and quantum algorithms requiring inner products. We carry out performance evaluations of these implementations based on IBM’s superconducting-qubit architecture using different compatible noise models. We isolate the sensitivity of the component quantum circuits on both one-/two-qubit gate error rates, and the number of the arithmetic operands’ superposed integer states. We analyze performance and identify the most effective approximation depths for unsigned quantum addition and quantum multiplication within the given context. We then perform a similar analysis of signed addition and compare to the unsigned results. We observe significant dependency of the optimal approximation depth on the degree of machine noise and the number of superposed states in certain performance regimes. Finally, we elaborate on the algorithmic challenges—relevant to signed, unsigned, modular and non-modular versions—that could also be applied to current implementations of QFT-based subtraction, division, exponentiation, and their potential tensor extensions. Here, we analyze the performance trends in our results and speculate on possible future developments within this computational paradigm.

Computational models↗
DOE OSTI2025

Vision Foundation Models in Remote Sensing: A survey

Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies have profoundly transformed the field of remote sensing (RS), revolutionizing data collection, processing, and analysis. Traditionally reliant on manual interpretation and task-specific models, RS research has been significantly enhanced by the advent of foundation models (FMs)—large-scale pretrained AI models capable of performing a wide array of tasks with unprecedented accuracy and efficiency. This article provides a comprehensive survey of FMs in the RS domain. We categorize these models based on their architectures, pretraining datasets, and methodologies. Through detailed performance comparisons, we highlight emerging trends and the significant advancements achieved by those FMs. Additionally, we discuss technical challenges, practical implications, and future research directions, addressing the need for high-quality data, computational resources, and improved model generalization. Our research also finds that pretraining methods, particularly self-supervised learning (SSL) techniques like contrastive learning (CL) and masked autoencoders (MAEs), remarkably enhance the performance and robustness of FMs. This survey aims to serve as a resource for researchers and practitioners by providing a panorama of advances and promising pathways for the continued development and application of FMs in RS.

data models↗
NASA NTRS1990

An interactive chemical dynamical radiative two-dimensional model of the middle atmosphere

A new two-dimensional model of the stratosphere and the mesosphere was formulated in transformed Eulerian coordinates, in which dynamics, radiation, and chemistry are treated interactively. The model includes a detailed radiative scheme which derives the diabatic heating rates consistently with calculated distributions of temperature and trace species densities. Results are presented on the present-day and perturbed atmosphere, showing that the calculated distributions of source gases, such as nitrous oxide and methane, are very sensitive to the calculated (and parameterized) dynamical quantities, and that species produced in the atmosphere, like carbon monoxide and odd nitrogen, can provide valuable information on the role of atmospheric transport.

Brasseur, G.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Applications of squeezed states: Bogoliubov transformations and wavelets to the statistical mechanics of water and its bubbles

The squeezed states or Bogoliubov transformations and wavelets are applied to two problems in nonrelativistic statistical mechanics: the dielectric response of liquid water, epsilon(q-vector,w), and the bubble formation in water during insonnification. The wavelets are special phase-space windows which cover the domain and range of L(exp 1) intersection of L(exp 2) of classical causal, finite energy solutions. The multiresolution of discrete wavelets in phase space gives a decomposition into regions of time and scales of frequency thereby allowing the renormalization group to be applied to new systems in addition to the tired 'usual suspects' of the Ising models and lattice gasses. The Bogoliubov transformation: squeeze transformation is applied to the dipolaron collective mode in water and to the gas produced by the explosive cavitation process in bubble formation.

Defacio, Brian↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bundling measures for food systems transformation: a global, multimodel assessment

Background Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models. Methods In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–Lancet healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously. Findings Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO 2 emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices). Interpretation This study highlights the importance of implementing coordinated approaches to food system transformation and climate change mitigation rather than relying on isolated interventions. Comprehensive transformation requires understanding how supply-side and demand-side changes can interact with climate mitigation policies, enabling policy makers to design intervention packages that maximise benefits while minimising trade-offs across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Sundiang, Marina [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (Unite↗
NASA NTRS1991

Observation model and parameter partials for the JPL VLBI parameter estimation software MODEST/1991

A revision is presented of MASTERFIT-1987, which it supersedes. Changes during 1988 to 1991 included introduction of the octupole component of solid Earth tides, the NUVEL tectonic motion model, partial derivatives for the precession constant and source position rates, the option to correct for source structure, a refined model for antenna offsets, modeling the unique antenna at Richmond, FL, improved nutation series due to Zhu, Groten, and Reigber, and reintroduction of the old (Woolard) nutation series for simulation purposes. Text describing the relativistic transformations and gravitational contributions to the delay model was also revised in order to reflect the computer code more faithfully.

Sovers, O. J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Infrared Aerosol Radiative Forcing at the Surface and the Top of the Atmosphere

We study the clear-sky aerosol radiative forcing at infrared wavelengths using data from the Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia) cruise of the NOAA R/V Ronald H. Brown. Limited number of data points is analyzed mostly from ship and collocated satellite values. An optical model is derived from chemical measurements, lidar profiles, and visible extinction measurements which is used to and estimate the infrared aerosol optical thickness and the single scattering albedo. The IR model results are compared to detailed Fourier Transform Interferometer based infrared aerosol forcing estimates, pyrgeometer based infrared downward fluxes, and against the direct solar forcing observations. This combined approach attests for the self-consistency of the optical model and allows to derive quantities such as the infrared forcing at the top of the atmosphere or the infrared optical thickness. The mean infrared aerosol optical thickness at 10 microns is 0.08 and the single scattering albedo is 0.55. The modeled infrared aerosol forcing reaches 10 W/sq m during the cruise, which is a significant contribution to the total direct aerosol forcing. The surface infrared aerosol radiative forcing is between 10 to 25% of the shortwave aerosol forcing. The infrared aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere can go up to 19% of the solar aerosol forcing. We show good agreement between satellite (CERES instrument) retrievals and model results at the top of the atmosphere. Over the Sea of Japan, the average infrared radiative forcing is 4.6 W/sq m in the window region at the surface and it is 1.5 W/sq m at top of the atmosphere. The top of the atmosphere IR forcing efficiency is a strong function of aerosol temperature while the surface IR forcing efficiency varies between 37 and 55 W/sq m (per infrared optical depth unit). and changes between 10 to 18 W/sq m (per infrared optical depth unit).

Markowicz, Krzysztof M.↗