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At least 919 records · Page 51

Radiance and Jacobian Intercomparison of Radiative Transfer Models Applied to HIRS and AMSU Channels

The goals of this study are the evaluation of current fast radiative transfer models (RTMs) and line-by-line (LBL) models. The intercomparison focuses on the modeling of 11 representative sounding channels routinely used at numerical weather prediction centers: seven HIRS (High-resolution Infrared Sounder) and four AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit) channels. Interest in this topic was evidenced by the participation of 24 scientists from 16 institutions. An ensemble of 42 diverse atmospheres was used and results compiled for 19 infrared models and 10 microwave models, including several LBL RTMs. For the first time, not only radiances, but also Jacobians (of temperature, water vapor, and ozone) were compared to various LBL models for many channels. In the infrared, LBL models typically agree to within 0.05-0.15 K (standard deviation) in terms of top-of-the-atmosphere brightness temperature (BT). Individual differences up to 0.5 K still exist, systematic in some channels, and linked to the type of atmosphere in others. The best fast models emulate LBL BTs to within 0.25 K, but no model achieves this desirable level of success for all channels. The ozone modeling is particularly challenging. In the microwave, fast models generally do quite well against the LBL model to which they were tuned. However significant differences were noted among LBL models. Extending the intercomparison to the Jacobians proved very useful in detecting subtle and more obvious modeling errors. In addition, total and single gas optical depths were calculated, which provided additional insight on the nature of differences. Recommendations for future intercomparisons are suggested.

Garand, L.↗

JSC Orbital Debris Website Description

Purpose: The website provides information about the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office at JSC, which is the lead NASA center for orbital debris research. It is recognized world-wide for its leadership in addressing orbital debris issues. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has taken the international lead in conducting measurements of the environment and in developing the technical consensus for adopting mitigation measures to protect users of the orbital environment. Work at the center continues with developing an improved understanding of the orbital debris environment and measures that can be taken to control its growth. Major Contents: Orbital Debris research is divided into the following five broad efforts. Each area of research contains specific information as follows: 1) Modeling - NASA scientists continue to develop and upgrade orbital debris models to describe and characterize the current and future debris environment. Evolutionary and engineering models are described in detail. Downloadable items include a document in PDF format and executable software. 2) Measurements - Measurements of near-Earth orbital debris are accomplished by conducting ground-based and space-based observations of the orbital debris environment. The data from these sources provide validation of the environment models and identify the presence of new sources. Radar, optical and surface examinations are described. External links to related topics are provided. 3) Protection - Orbital debris protection involves conducting hypervelocity impact measurements to assess the risk presented by orbital debris to operating spacecraft and developing new materials and new designs to provide better protection from the environment with less weight penalty. The data from this work provides the link between the environment defined by the models and the risk presented by that environment to operating spacecraft and provides recommendations on design and operations procedures to reduce the risk as required. These data also help in the analysis and interpretation of impact features on returned spacecraft surfaces. 4) Mitigation - Controlling the growth of the orbital debris population is a high priority for NASA, the United States, and the major space-faring nations of the world to preserve near-Earth space for future generations. Mitigation measures can take the form of curtailing or preventing the creation of new debris, designing satellites to withstand impacts by small debris, and implementing operational procedures ranging from utilizing orbital regimes with less debris, adopting specific spacecraft attitudes, and even maneuvering to avoid collisions with debris. Downloadable items include several documents in PDF format and executable software.and 5) Reentry - Because of the increasing number of objects in space, NASA has adopted guidelines and assessment procedures to reduce the number of non-operational spacecraft and spent rocket upper stages orbiting the Earth. One method of postmission disposal is to allow reentry of these spacecraft, either from orbital decay (uncontrolled entry) or with a controlled entry. Orbital decay may be achieved by firing engines to lower the perigee altitude so that atmospheric drag will eventually cause the spacecraft to enter. However, the surviving debris impact footprint cannot be guaranteed to avoid inhabited landmasses. Controlled entry normally occurs by using a larger amount of propellant with a larger propulsion system to drive the spacecraft to enter the atmosphere at a steeper flight path angle. It will then enter at a more precise latitude, longitude, and footprint in a nearly uninhabited impact region, generally located in the ocean.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗

A Compendium of Wind Statistics and Models for the NASA Space Shuttle and Other Aerospace Vehicle Programs

The wind profile with all of its variations with respect to altitude has been, is now, and will continue to be important for aerospace vehicle design and operations. Wind profile databases and models are used for the vehicle ascent flight design for structural wind loading, flight control systems, performance analysis, and launch operations. This report presents the evolution of wind statistics and wind models from the empirical scalar wind profile model established for the Saturn Program through the development of the vector wind profile model used for the Space Shuttle design to the variations of this wind modeling concept for the X-33 program. Because wind is a vector quantity, the vector wind models use the rigorous mathematical probability properties of the multivariate normal probability distribution. When the vehicle ascent steering commands (ascent guidance) are wind biased to the wind profile measured on the day-of-launch, ascent structural wind loads are reduced and launch probability is increased. This wind load alleviation technique is recommended in the initial phase of vehicle development. The vehicle must fly through the largest load allowable versus altitude to achieve its mission. The Gumbel extreme value probability distribution is used to obtain the probability of exceeding (or not exceeding) the load allowable. The time conditional probability function is derived from the Gumbel bivariate extreme value distribution. This time conditional function is used for calculation of wind loads persistence increments using 3.5-hour Jimsphere wind pairs. These increments are used to protect the commit-to-launch decision. Other topics presented include the Shuttle Shuttle load-response to smoothed wind profiles, a new gust model, and advancements in wind profile measuring systems. From the lessons learned and knowledge gained from past vehicle programs, the development of future launch vehicles can be accelerated. However, new vehicle programs by their very nature will require specialized support for new databases and analyses for wind, atmospheric parameters (pressure, temperature, and density versus altitude), and weather. It is for this reason that project managers are encouraged to collaborate with natural environment specialists early in the conceptual design phase. Such action will give the lead time necessary to meet the natural environment design and operational requirements, and thus, reduce development costs.

Smith, O. E.↗

A novel probabilistic regression model for electrical peak demand estimate of commercial and manufacturing buildings

Due to the high cost of electricity in commercial and industrial sectors, demand forecast models have gained increasing attention. However, there are two unresolved issues: (1) Models are not adaptable when exposed to previously unknown data (2) The value of regression methods vs. state-of-the-art machine learning models has not been made apparent before. This study’s goal is to develop probabilistic demand estimation models. Herein, we propose a probabilistic Bayesian regression framework that can not only estimate future demands with high accuracy but also be updated once new information is available. By applying the proposed algorithm to two real-world case studies (commercial and manufacturing), we show a 40.3% and 30.8% improvement in terms of mean absolute error for the two cases. Moreover, the proposed technique outperforms powerful machine learning approaches, including support vector machine by 10.39%, random forest by 6.17%, and multilayer perceptron by 9.14% in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evaluation, Analysis, and Application of Internal Strain-Gage Balance Data

Experimental processes, analytical methods, and numerical algorithms are described that may be used to predict the forces and moments of an internal strain-gage balance during a wind tunnel test. First, the control volume model of a strain-gage balance and the concepts of load state, load space, and output space are introduced. These important abstractions provide a better understanding of fundamental characteristics of different balance load prediction approaches. Then, the description of strain-gage balance data and the definition of the primary gage sensitivity is discussed. Afterwards, basic elements of the calibration of a typical six-component balance are reviewed. Two fundamentally different balance load prediction methods, the processing of check loads, and related topics are also discussed. Three real-world balance data examples are reviewed in great detail to illustrate typical analysis results for a variety of strain-gage balance designs. Finally, important observations are summarized and recommendations are provided. Additional information and detailed mathematical derivations can be found in the appendices of the document. They include the following topics: balance terminology, definitions of important statistical metrics, balance axis system conventions, balance load transformations, the combined load diagram, electrical output format options, bi-directional gage output characteristics, determination of the natural zeros, derivation of two balance load prediction methods, description of two tare load iteration algorithms, modeling of balance temperature effects, basics of three-component moment balances, definition of the percent contribution, detection of linear and near-linear dependencies in balance calibration data, a regression model term selection algorithm, and other related topics.

wind tunnel test↗

Two Topics in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting: Soil Moisture Initialization Error and Precipitation Downscaling

Continental-scale offline simulations with a land surface model are used to address two important issues in the forecasting of large-scale seasonal streamflow: (i) the extent to which errors in soil moisture initialization degrade streamflow forecasts, and (ii) the extent to which the downscaling of seasonal precipitation forecasts, if it could be done accurately, would improve streamflow forecasts. The reduction in streamflow forecast skill (with forecasted streamflow measured against observations) associated with adding noise to a soil moisture field is found to be, to first order, proportional to the average reduction in the accuracy of the soil moisture field itself. This result has implications for streamflow forecast improvement under satellite-based soil moisture measurement programs. In the second and more idealized ("perfect model") analysis, precipitation downscaling is found to have an impact on large-scale streamflow forecasts only if two conditions are met: (i) evaporation variance is significant relative to the precipitation variance, and (ii) the subgrid spatial variance of precipitation is adequately large. In the large-scale continental region studied (the conterminous United States), these two conditions are met in only a somewhat limited area.

Koster, Randal↗

Residential Demand Flexibility: Modeling Occupant Behavior using Sociodemographic Predictors

Demand flexibility (DF) has the potential to increase the saturation of renewables in the grid and reduce operating costs for both utilities and customers. However, less than 8% of U.S. residential electric customers are enrolled in DF programs. A major research gap on this topic is an uneven understanding of behavioral drivers of electricity use and DF program participation at the household level. In this study, we employ machine learning models to predict residential occupant behavior in activities relevant to DF. We model occupants' extensive decisions (i.e., choice of action) and intensive behaviors (i.e., amount of time spent) during peak and off-peak time periods using the publicly available American Time Use Survey, which includes activities data for approximately 200,000 respondents. In our machine learning models, predictions for both extensive and intensive behavior fell within a +/-20% error margin at the aggregate level. We identify 13 key sociodemographic predictors of DF-related intensive behavior using LASSO inference and beta coefficient ranking. However, these top predictors differ by activity, suggesting potential scope for differential user targeting for DF events and technologies during program design. This work also contributes to understanding when and who might adopt these DF technologies based on their daily routine activities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Benchmark between antenna code TOPICA, RAPLICASOL and Petra-M for the ICRH ITER antenna

ITER will be equipped with three plasma heating systems: neutral beam (NB), electron cyclotron (EC), and ion cy-clotron resonance heating (ICRH). The latter consists of two identical ICRH antennas to deliver 20 MW to the plasma (baseline, upgradable to 40 MW). ICRH will play a crucial role in the ignition and sustainment of burning plasmas in ITER. A high fidelity and robust modeling effort to understand the interaction of the IC waves with the scrape-off-layer (SOL) plasma is a very important aspect. Among the main important research topics, we have the assessment of the antenna loading for different plasma scenarios, the role of the lower hybrid resonance in front of the antenna and how to include it in our models, and the RF sheath boundary conditions to evaluate the antenna impurity generation. In this work, we tackle the first of these by reporting on ICRF simulations employing the Petra-M code, which is an electromagnetic simulation tool for modeling RF wave propagation based on MFEM [http://mfem.org] for the ITER ICRH antenna. Moreover, a benchmark between the well tested antenna codes TOPICA, RAPLI-CASOL, which is based on COMSOL [www.comsol.com], and the Petra-M code is also presented. In conclusion, S- and Z-matrices and wave electric field are compared showing an excellent agreement among these codes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Extension of four-dimensional atmospheric models

The cloud data bank, the 4-D atmospheric model, and a set of computer programs designed to simulate meteorological conditions for any location above the earth are described in turns of space vehicle design and simulation of vehicle reentry trajectories. Topics discussed include: the relationship between satellite and surface observed cloud cover using LANDSAT 1 photographs and including the effects of cloud shadows; extension of the 4-D model to the altitude of 52 km; and addition of the u and v wind components to the 4-D model of means and variances at 1 km levels from the surface to 25 km. Results of the cloud cover analysis are presented along with the stratospheric model and the tropospheric wind profiles.

Fowler, M. G.↗

Earth and Space Science Informatics Perspectives on Integrated, Coordinated, Open, Networked (ICON) Science

Abstract This article is composed of three independent commentaries about the state of Integrated, Coordinated, Open, Networked (ICON) principles (Goldman, et al., 2021b, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EO153180 ) in Earth and Space Science Informatics (ESSI) and includes discussion on the opportunities and challenges of adopting them. Each commentary focuses on a different topic: (Section 2) Global collaboration, cyberinfrastructure, and data sharing; (Section 3) Machine learning for multiscale modeling; (Section 4) Aerial and satellite remote sensing for advancing Earth system model development by integrating field and ancillary data. ESSI addresses data management practices, computation and analysis, and hardware and software infrastructure. Our role in ICON science therefore involves collaborative work to assess, design, implement, and promote practices and tools that enable effective data management, discovery, integration, and reuse for interdisciplinary work in Earth and space science disciplines. Networks of diverse people with expertise across Earth, space, and data science disciplines are essential for efficient and ethical exchanges of findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) research products and practices. Our challenge is then to coordinate the development of standards, curation practices, and tools that enable integrating and reusing multiple data types, software, multi‐scale models, and machine learning approaches across disciplines in a way that is as open and/or FAIR as ethically possible. This is a major endeavor that could greatly increase the pace and potential of interdisciplinary scientific discovery.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Twisted bilayer graphene. II. Stable symmetry anomaly

We show that the entire continuous model of twisted bilayer graphene (TBG) (and not just the two active bands) with particle-hole symmetry is anomalous and hence incompatible with lattice models. Previous works [e.g., Z. Song, Z. Wang, W. Shi, G. Li, C. Fang, and B. A. Bernevig, Phys. Rev. Lett. 123, 036401 (2019); J. Ahn, S. Park, and B.-J. Yang, Phys. Rev. X 9, 021013 (2019); H. C. Po, L. Zou, T. Senthil, and A. Vishwanath, Phys. Rev. B 99, 195455 (2019); J. Kang and O. Vafek, Phys. Rev. X 8, 031088 (2018); M. Koshino, N. F. Q. Yuan, T. Koretsune, M. Ochi, K. Kuroki, and L. Fu, Phys. Rev. X 8, 031087 (2018); J. Liu, J. Liu, and X. Dai, Phys. Rev. B 99, 155415 (2019); L. Zou, H. C. Po, A. Vishwanath, and T. Senthil, Phys. Rev. B 98, 085435 (2018)] found that the two flatbands in TBG possess a fragile topology protected by the C 2z T symmetry. Song et al. [Z. Song, Z. Wang, W. Shi, G. Li, C. Fang, and B. A. Bernevig, Phys. Rev. Lett. 123, 036401 (2019)] also pointed out an approximate particle-hole symmetry (P) in the continuous model of TBG. In this paper, we numerically confirm that P is indeed a good approximation for TBG and show that the fragile topology of the two flatbands is enhanced to a P-protected stable topology. This stable topology implies 4l + 2 (l ϵ N) Dirac points between the middle two bands. The P-protected stable topology is robust against arbitrary gap closings between the middle two bands and the other bands. We also show that, remarkably, this P-protected stable topology, as well as the corresponding 4l + 2 Dirac points, cannot be realized in lattice models that preserve both C 2z T and P symmetries. In other words, the continuous model of TBG is anomalous and cannot be realized on lattices. Two other topology related topics, with consequences for the interacting TBG problem, i.e., the choice of Chern band basis in the two flatbands and the perfect metal phase of TBG in the so-called second chiral limit, are also discussed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Research Roadmap on Grid-Forming Inverters

This research roadmap is intended to fill the knowledge gap by providing a system view of grid-forming inverter-based resource controls and their impact on grid stability, which we believe is central to meeting some of the challenges to operating the future North American electric power system. This includes the roles and requirements of grid-forming inverter-based resources—including solar photovoltaics, wind generators, and energy storage. For this roadmap, we focus on a specific family of grid-forming inverter control approaches that do not rely on an external voltage source (i.e., no phase-locked loop) and that can share load without explicit communications. Although the roadmap is focused narrowly on system challenges for grid-forming controls and power system stability, including interactions with protection, we hope it serves as a foundational element for future system-of-systems roadmapping needed in a broader grid modernization effort with increasing deployments of inverter-based resources. The roadmap first introduces formal definitions for the grid stability topics and then describes the differences between grid-forming and traditional grid-following control approaches for inverter-based resources. The core of the roadmap consists of a review of current research and an outline of research needs related to five grid-forming inverter topics: frequency control, voltage control, system protection, fault ride-through and voltage recovery, and modeling and simulation. The review both delineates contemporary advances and highlights open research questions that must be addressed to enable the widespread adoption of inverter-based resources across the grid. Feedback from industry on these research questions is incorporated, including discussions during the Workshop on Grid-forming Inverters for Low-inertia Power Systems. The workshop included industry presentations and discussion of ongoing research, technology gaps, and piloting needs. This roadmap concludes by offering a multiyear perspective on the gradual field validation of grid-forming inverters. This perspective recognizes that the scale and scope of the types of power systems that inverters will be called on to provide grid-forming services will and should begin modestly. Specifically, this roadmap recognizes that inverter controls today are predominantly grid-following and that future power systems will involve a mix of inverter-based resources with both grid-following and grid-forming control capabilities. Growth over time will depend on how well grid-forming inverters perform and what advantages they bring as penetration levels (instantaneous and average) of inverter-based resources increases. This recognition, in turn, establishes a natural sequence of priorities for the research questions that must be addressed. Following this multiyear perspective, the roadmap offers short descriptions of two specific near-term research priorities: the review of regulatory and technical standards and the development of advanced modeling techniques. These priorities are foundational. We recommend immediate pursuit of them in parallel with and in direct support of the research outlined by our multiyear perspective.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Editorial: Particulate Matter Emissions From Conventional and Reformulated Fuel Combustion: Advances in Experiments and Simulations

Particulate matter (PM or soot) emissions generated by combustion of conventional and reformulated fuels adversely impact the environment and human health (Bond et al., 2013; Landrigan et al., 2018; World Health Organization (WHO), 2016), generating public awareness and motivating efforts towards the mitigation of their harmful effects. Soot formation is one of the most complex phenomena in combustion, involving interactions between combustion chemistry, fluid mechanics, mass/heat transport, and particle dynamics, spanning different spatial and temporal scales. A fundamental understanding of soot formation process is thus necessary to achieve a strong reduction of PM emissions and design cleaner and more efficient combustion systems. This has motivated a longstanding and ongoing research activity aimed at improving our understanding of the physical and chemical processes involved in soot formation, well reviewed in these recent works (Wang and Chung, 2019; Michelsen et al., 2020; Martin et al., 2022). Despite the wide interest, the transition from gas-phase molecules to incipient soot particles is still elusive and the successive particle growth and oxidation processes are far from being fully understood, especially in conditions relevant to real-world applications. Recent advances in combustion PM emission diagnostic and computational capabilities helped in improving the predictability of fundamental chemical and aerosol models for practical applications, thus tackling some of the above-mentioned challenges. The aim of this research topic is to display the ongoing research efforts in addressing the existing gaps on particulate formation from various fuel sources and in conditions typical of practical combustion applications (e.g. flames, engines, pool fires), through both experimental and numerical approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Flare build-up study; Proceedings of the Workshop, Falmouth, Mass., September 8-11, 1975

The papers deal with problems which might be common to solar flares and earth's magnetosphere, problems associated with the initial phases of the flare phenomenon, the acceleration processes that seem to occur in flares and the magnetosphere, as well as the buildup and storage of flare energy in magnetic-field structures. Topics include the active role of magnetic fields in providing flare energy, current-sheet models of solar flares, the role of plasma turbulence in flare development, similarities and differences between magnetospheric substorms and solar flares, observations of magnetic merging in earth's magnetotail during magnetospheric substorms, evidence for magnetic-energy storage in coronal active regions, the possible role of transition-zone instabilities in preflare energy buildup, and flare energy storage and deposition. Other papers discuss energy release through the interaction of coronal magnetic fields, photospheric electric currents as a source of flare energy, magnetic-energy buildup in the solar atmosphere, magnetic and velocity fields in an active region, flare onset at meter wavelengths, laboratory experiments on field-line reconnection, key problems in auroral flare processes, and the solar-physics Shuttle/Spacelab program. Individual items are announced in this issue.

Svestka, Z.↗

Energy requirement for the production of silicon solar arrays

An assessment of potential changes and alternative technologies which could impact the photovoltaic manufacturing process is presented. Topics discussed include: a multiple wire saw, ribbon growth techniques, silicon casting, and a computer model for a large-scale solar power plant. Emphasis is placed on reducing the energy demands of the manufacturing process.

Lindmayer, J.↗