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At least 919 records · Page 51
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

Ionizing program environment at the Mars surface

The Langley cosmic ray transport code and the Langley nucleon transport code are used to quantify the transport and attenuation of galactic cosmic rays and solar proton flares through the Martian atmosphere. Surface doses are estimated using both a low-density and a high-density carbon dioxide model of the atmosphere which, in the vertical direction, provide a total of 16 g/sq cm and 22 g/sq cm of protection, respectively. At the Mars surface during the solar minimum cycle, a blood-forming organ (BFO) dose-equivalent of 10.5 to 12 rem/yr due to galactic cosmic ray transport and attenuation is calculated. Estimates of the BFO dose-equivalents which would have been incurred at the surface from three large solar flare events are also calculated. Doses are also estimated at altitudes up to 12 km above the Martian surface where the atmosphere will provide less total protection.

Simonsen, Lisa C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Surface Ocean pCO2 Seasonality and Sea-Air CO2 Flux Estimates for the North American East Coast

Underway and in situ observations of surface ocean pCO2, combined with satellite data, were used to develop pCO2 regional algorithms to analyze the seasonal and interannual variability of surface ocean pCO2 and sea-air CO2 flux for five physically and biologically distinct regions of the eastern North American continental shelf: the South Atlantic Bight (SAB), the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB), the Gulf of Maine (GoM), Nantucket Shoals and Georges Bank (NS+GB), and the Scotian Shelf (SS). Temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon variability are the most influential factors driving the seasonality of pCO2. Estimates of the sea-air CO2 flux were derived from the available pCO2 data, as well as from the pCO2 reconstructed by the algorithm. Two different gas exchange parameterizations were used. The SS, GB+NS, MAB, and SAB regions are net sinks of atmospheric CO2 while the GoM is a weak source. The estimates vary depending on the use of surface ocean pCO2 from the data or algorithm, as well as with the use of the two different gas exchange parameterizations. Most of the regional estimates are in general agreement with previous studies when the range of uncertainty and interannual variability are taken into account. According to the algorithm, the average annual uptake of atmospheric CO2 by eastern North American continental shelf waters is found to be between 3.4 and 5.4 Tg C/yr (areal average of 0.7 to 1.0 mol CO2 /sq m/yr) over the period 2003-2010.

interannual variability↗
NASA NTRS1980

Remote sensing of soil moisture content over bare fields at 1.4 GHz frequency

A simple method of estimating moisture content (W) of a bare soil from the observed brightness temperature (T sub B) at 1.4 GHz is discussed. The method is based on a radiative transfer model calculation, which has been successfully used in the past to account for many observational results, with some modifications to take into account the effect of surface roughness. Besides the measured T sub B's, the three additional inputs required by the method are the effective soil thermodynamic temperature, the precise relation between W and the smooth field brightness temperature T sub B and a parameter specifying the surface roughness characteristics. The soil effective temperature can be readily measured and the procedures of estimating surface roughness parameter and obtaining the relation between W and smooth field brightness temperature are discussed in detail. Dual polarized radiometric measurements at an off-nadir incident angle are sufficient to estimate both surface roughness parameter and W, provided that the relation between W and smooth field brightness temperature at the same angle is known. The method of W estimate is demonstrated with two sets of experimental data, one from a controlled field experiment by a mobile tower and the other, from aircraft overflight. The results from both data sets are encouraging when the estimated W's are compared with the acquired ground truth of W's in the top 2 cm layer. An offset between the estimated and the measured W's exists in the results of the analyses, but that can be accounted for by the presently poor knowledge of the relationship between W and smooth field brightness temperature for various types of soils. An approach to quantify this relationship for different soils and thus improve the method of W estimate is suggested.

Wang, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Martian atmospheric planetary boundary layer stability, fluxes, spectra, and similarity

This is the first analysis of the high frequency data from the Viking lander and spectra of wind, in the Martian atmospheric surface layer, along with the diurnal variation of the height of the mixed surface layer, are calculated for the first time for Mars. Heat and momentum fluxes, stability, and z(sub O) are estimated for early spring, from a surface temperature model and from Viking Lander 2 temperatures and winds at 44 deg N, using Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. The afternoon maximum height of the mixed layer for these seasons and conditions is estimated to lie between 3.6 and 9.2 km. Estimations of this height is of primary importance to all models of the boundary layer and Martian General Circulation Models (GCM's). Model spectra for two measuring heights and three surface roughnesses are calculated using the depth of the mixed layer, and the surface layer parameters and flow distortion by the lander is also taken into account. These experiments indicate that z(sub O), probably lies between 1.0 and 3.0 cm, and most likely is closer to 1.0 cm. The spectra are adjusted to simulate aliasing and high frequency rolloff, the latter caused both by the sensor response and the large Kolmogorov length on Mars. Since the spectral models depend on the surface parameters, including the estimated surface temperature, their agreement with the calculated spectra indicates that the surface layer estimates are self consistent. This agreement is especially noteworthy in that the inertial subrange is virtually absent in the Martian atmosphere at this height, due to the large Kolmogorov length scale. These analyses extend the range of applicability of terrestrial results and demonstrate that it is possible to estimate the effects of severe aliasing of wind measurements, to produce a models which agree well with the measured spectra. The results show that similarity theory developed for Earth applies to Mars, and that the spectral models are universal.

Tillman, James E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing and high-sensitivity sensor spatial surveying of stream temperature

Measuring surface water temperature spatial variability is needed to estimate the interaction between surface water and groundwater, evaluate fish habitat and thermal inertia, and to estimate streamflow frequency and duration. Fiber optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS) has been used in rivers and lakes, providing high-resolution and sensitive temperature monitoring over large temporal and spatial scales. However, in streams with cobbly or bedrock-lined streambeds and variable bathymetry, use of FO-DTS to measure temperature close to the surface water and groundwater interface can be challenging if even feasible. FO-DTS can also be costly, involve difficult installations, and require an advanced understanding of the technology, calibration, and data processing. In this study, we compared FO-DTS stream temperature survey results to an alternative temperature survey method employing a towed transect of high-resolution temperature loggers spaced at 1-m and transported in the stream along the study reach, to measure the spatial distribution of stream-water temperature in East Fork Poplar Creek near Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA. We assessed the applicability and limitations of the two methods, and quantitatively compared in-situ temperature survey results measured simultaneously with each method. Regression results showed strong temporal and spatial correlation between the two methods. Differences were only elevated near the stream banks in areas that were coincident with correlation slope deviations from unity, which was attributed to shallower water and lower data density. Kriging standard errors were also low at channel center with minor increases near the stream banks. Furthermore, the results suggested that the array of the individual temperature sensors can provide a practical alternative to FO-DTS for thermal characterization of surface water, providing slightly lower spatial and temporal resolution, but with higher accuracy of temperature measurement, with greater simplicity, and with a broader range of conditions where it may be applied.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Tidal and atmospheric forcing of the upper ocean in the Gulf of California. 2: Surface heat flux

Satellite infrared imagery and coastal meteorological data for March 1984 through February 1985 are used to estimate the net annual surface heat flux for the northern Gulf of California. The average annual surface heat flux for the area north of Guaymas and Santa Rosalia is estimated to be +74 W/sq m for the 1984-1985 time period. This is comparable to the +20-50 W/sq m previously obtained from heat and freshwater transport estimates made with hydrographic surveys from different years and months. The spatial distribution of the net surface heat flux shows a net gain of heat over the whole northern gulf. Except for a local maximum near San Esteban Island, the largest heat gain (+110-120 W/sq m) occurs in the Ballenas and Salsipuedes channels, where strong tidal mixing produces anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over much of the year. The lowest heat gain occurs in the Guayamas Basin (+40-50 W/sq m), where SSTs are consistently warmer. In the relatively shallow northern basin the net surface heat flux is farily uniform, with a net annual gain of approxmately +70 W/sq m. A local minimum in heat gain (approximately +60 W/sq m) is observed over the shelf in the northwest, where spring and summer surface temperatures are particularly high. A similar minimum in heat gain over the shelf was observed in a separate study in which historical SSTs and 7 years (1979-1986) of meteorological data from Puerto Penasco were used to estimate the net surface heat flux for the northern basin. In that study, however, the heat fluxes were higher, with a gain of +100 W/sq m over the shelf and +114 W/sq m in the northern basin. These larger values are directly attributable to the higher humidities in the 1979-1986 study compared to the 1984-1985 satellite study. High humidities reduce evaporation and the associated latent heat loss, promoting a net annual heat gain. In the norther Gulf of California, however, tidal mixing appears to play a key role in the observed gain of heat. Deep mixing in the island region produces a persistent pool of cold water which is mixed horizontally by the large-scale circulation, lowering surface temperatures over most of the northern gulf. These cold SSTs decrease evaporation by reducing the saturation vapor pressure of the overlying air. As a result, heat loss is substantially reduced, even when humidities are low. By removing heat from the surface, tidal mixing alters the time scale of air-sea interaction and reduces or possibly even inhibits the formation of deep water masses via convection.

Paden, Cynthia A.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Two-dimensional Gaussian processes applied to the determination of contact between lubricated rolling surfaces

The effectiveness of a lubricant film preventing metallic contact between two rolling surfaces (such as in ball bearings) as a function of surface roughness parameters was investigated. The parameters considered are the spectral moments of the two-dimensional surface obtained by superposition of the two rolling surfaces. The peak height distribution, estimation of one-dimensional profile spectral moments, and the estimation of two-dimensional surface moments from several profile measurements were considered. Also given is an asymptotic relation between the mean film thickness and contact occurrences.

Sidik, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Status of TRMM Monthly Estimates of Tropical Precipitation

Nearly three years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Satellite (TRMM Satellite) monthly estimates of tropical surface rainfall are analyzed to document and understand the differences among the TRMM-based estimates and how these differences relate to the pre-TRMM estimates and current operational analyses. Variation among the TRMM estimates is shown to be considerably smaller than among a pre-TRMM collection of passive microwave-based products. Use of both passive and active microwave techniques in TRMM should lead to increased confidence in converged estimates. Current TRMM estimates are shown to have a range of about 20% for the tropical ocean as a whole, with variations in heavily raining ocean areas of the ITCZ and SPCZ having differences over 30%. In mid-latitude ocean areas the differences are smaller. Over land there is a distinct difference between the tropics and mid-latitude with a reversal between some of the products as to which tends to be relatively high or low. Comparisons of TRMM estimates with ocean atoll and land gauge information point to products that might have significant regional biases. The radar-based product is significantly low biased compared with atoll raingauge data, while the passive microwave product is significantly high compared to raingauge data in the deep tropics. The evolution of rainfall patterns during the recent change from intense El Nino to a long period of La Nina and then a gradual return to near neutral conditions is described using TRMM. The time history of integrated rainfall over the tropical oceans (and land) during this period differs among the passive and active microwave TRMM estimates.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Identifying and Addressing Land Surface Model Deficiencies with Data Assimilation

Land surface models (LSMs) encapsulate our understanding of terrestrial water and energy cycle physics and provide estimates of land surface states and fluxes when and where measurement gaps exist. Gaps in our understanding of the physics are a different issue. Data assimilation can address that issue both directly, through updating of prognostic model variables, or indirectly, when the simulated world conflicts with observation, necessitating adjustment of the model. Here we will focus on the latter case and present several examples, including (1) depth to bedrock adjustment to accommodate assimilated GRACE terrestrial water storage data; (2) steps to prevent immediate melting of assimilated snow cover; (3) irrigation's contribution to evapotranspiration; (4) lessons learned from soil moisture data assimilation; (5) the potential impact of satellite based runoff observation

Rodell, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2019

Analyzing the Ages of South Polar Craters on the Moon: Implications for the Sources and Evolution of Surface Water Ice

Surface water ice in the permanently shadowed polar regions of the Moon has a patchy surficial distribution and is not found within all available cold-trapping areas. To date it is not well understood when the ice was delivered, which has important implications for the surficial characteristics of the ice as well as for possible delivery mechanisms. Here we present absolute model ages for 20 south polar craters that host surface water ice, providing maximum estimates of the ages of surface ice contained within these craters. We quantify the amount of available cold-trapping surface area that is occupied by water ice in order to examine the relationship between the patchiness of ice within each crater and the age of each host crater. The majority of surface ice is contained in old craters ≥∼3.1 Gyr, where the majority of cold-trapping area on the pole exists. The ice is these ancient craters is very patchy in surficial distribution, occupying <11.5% of cold-trapping surface area available in individual craters. This patchy distribution of ice in old craters is likely to be due to impact bombardment and regolith overturn within the polar regions. Interestingly, surface ice is also located within smaller craters (<15 km in diameter), whose sharp crater rim crest morphologies suggest that they may be relatively young. Ice in fresh-looking craters suggests that ice has been delivered to the lunar surface more recently, perhaps from micrometeorites or through solar wind interactions with the lunar regolith. Finally, we also analyze a group of ancient craters that does not host surface water ice, even though these craters are present-day cold traps. These specific ancient craters would not have been thermally stable for the cold-trapping of water ice before the onset of true polar wander suggested by Siegler et al. (2016). If true polar wander did occur on the Moon, then the ages of ice-bearing craters presented here set an upper limit for the age of post-true polar wander hydrogen emplacement of 4.1 ± 0.1 Gyr.

Deutsch, Ariel N.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancing Satellite-Constrained Modeled Air-Sea CO 2 Fluxes With a Focus on the Strength of the Southern Ocean Carbon Sink

Challenge and Motivation: The ocean plays a critical role in mitigating climate change by removing approximately a quarter of annual anthropogenic CO 2 emissions from the atmosphere. Model-based estimates point to the Southern Ocean as a key marine region, responsible for approximately 40 % of the anthropogenic carbon uptake by the global ocean. However, the contemporary strength of the Southern Ocean carbon sink has recently come into question. On the one hand, airborne-based observations of atmospheric CO 2 gradients indicate that the Southern Ocean represents a strong net sink of atmospheric CO 2 , consistent in magnitude with atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO 2 )-based products. On the other hand, estimates of pCO 2 based on in situ pH measurements taken by biogeochemical profiling floats yield strong wintertime outgassing fluxes that greatly reduce the Southern Ocean’s annually integrated CO 2 uptake. This uncertainty in the strength of the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux and its role in the global carbon cycle hinders our ability to constrain global carbon fluxes, one of the major goals of NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS). Opportunity: The NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) produces near-global pCO 2 and air-sea CO 2 flux estimates that are currently included into the NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) models in support of the CMS effort to monitor global carbon fluxes. The NOBM assimilates ocean color data to improve the representation of biogeochemical fluxes and overcome spatial and temporal gaps in the space-based retrievals. Here, we propose to advance the satellite-constrained flux estimates by investigating the uncertainties in the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux produced by the NOBM, and assess the value that remote sensing ocean color data can have in providing improved estimates of carbon fluxes in the ocean. Our proposed work includes the delivery of refined in situ float-based carbon fluxes to serve as a constraint on the model-based estimates. Taking advantage of the model’s integration of satellite ocean color data to represent multiple phytoplankton groups, we propose to deliver maps of biogenic carbon export specific to each modeled phytoplankton type and investigate the role of ecological plankton complexity in regulating marine carbon uptake and export. Goals: (a) Delivery of seasonally-adjusted float-based Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 fluxes: We will produce updated and improved float-based air-sea CO 2 fluxes that will serve as a bias-reduced float-based constraint to evaluate our model-based estimates of the NOBM. (b) Investigation of uncertainties in Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux from the NOBM: Modeled air-sea carbon fluxes will be evaluated against the updated float product as well as ship- and airborne-based data to identify uncertainties and potential model deficiencies. (c) Delivery of model-based carbon export partitioning by phytoplankton functional types (PFTs): We will produce depth-resolved maps of particulate organic export production integrated for all phytoplankton groups and allocated to each individual PFT in the model. The expected significance of this goal is to quantify the role that the functional-oriented diversity in phytoplankton groups represented in the NOBM plays in regulating air-sea CO 2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean.

Lionel A. Arteaga↗
NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Heatshield Erosion Due to Dust Particle Impacts for a Martian Entry Vehicle

The modeling assumptions and governing equations required to estimate the heatshield surface recession due to dust particle impacts are presented. The dust particle size distribution can be estimated using a modified gamma distribution. The vertical distribution of dust particles in the atmosphere in terms of the ratio of dust particle to atmospheric density can be related to measured or computed values of the dust opacity. The different approaches to coupling the particle and fluid dynamics are discussed. The equations and modeling assumptions presented in this paper are applied to computing the surface recession due to dust particle impacts on the ExoMars Schiaparelli capsule entering the Martian atmosphere during a representative dust storm. The dust surface recession at the stagnation point of about 1 millimeter is about 40 percent of the recession value due to charring ablation.

Thermal Protection Systems↗
NASA NTRS2020

Changes in the Surface Broadband Shortwave Radiation Budget During the 2017 Eclipse

While solar eclipses are known to greatly diminish the visible radiation reaching the surface of the Earth, less is known about the magnitude of the impact. We explore both the observed and modeled levels of change in surface radiation during the eclipse of 2017. We deployed a pyranometer and Pandora spectrometer instrument to Casper, Wyoming, and Columbia, Missouri, to measure surface broadband shortwave (SW) flux and atmospheric properties during the 21 August 2017 solar eclipse event. We performed detailed radiative transfer simulations to understand the role of clouds in spectral and broadband solar radiation transfer in the Earth’s atmosphere for the normal (non-eclipse) spectrum and red-shift solar spectra for eclipse conditions. The theoretical calculations showed that the non-eclipse-to-eclipse surface flux ratio depends strongly on the obscuration of the solar disk and slightly on the cloud optical depth. These findings allowed us to estimate what the surface broadband SW flux would be for hypothetical non-eclipse conditions from observations during the eclipse and further to quantify the impact of the eclipse on the surface broadband SW radiation budget. We found that the eclipse caused local reductions of time-averaged surface flux of about 379 W m−2 (50 %) and 329Wm-2 (46 %) during the ∼3 h course of the eclipse at the Casper and Columbia sites, respectively. We estimated that the Moon’s shadow caused a reduction of approximately 7 %–8% in global average surface broadband SW radiation. The eclipse has a smaller impact on the absolute value of surface flux reduction for cloudy conditions than a clear atmosphere; the impact decreases with the increase in cloud optical depth. However, the relative time-averaged reduction of local surface SW flux during a solar eclipse is approximately 45 %, and it is not sensitive to cloud optical depth. The reduction of global average SW flux relative to climatology is proportional to the non-eclipse and eclipse flux difference in the penumbra area and depends on cloud optical depth in the Moon’s shadow and geolocation due to the change in solar zenith angle. We also discuss the influence of cloud inhomogeneity on the observed SW flux. Our results not only quantify the reduction of the surface solar radiation budget, but also advance the understanding of broadband SW radiative transfer under solar eclipse conditions.

surface radiation↗
NASA NTRS2020

Combining MODIS LAI with ICESat-Based Canopy Heights Improves Spaceborne Estimates of Vegetation Roughness Length for Momentum

Most land-surface models require parameterization of vertical wind profiles within the atmospheric boundary layer. For vegetated surfaces, it is common to assume a logarithmic profile in the surface layer, which includes estimates of vegetation roughness length for momentum (z0) and zero-plane displacement height (d0). This study finds that remotely-sensed forest canopy heights improve estimates of aerodynamic roughness length for momentum using a previously-developed representation of the roughness sublayer (Raupach 1992; Jasinski et al. 2005). Resulting roughness products consist of two datasets: 1) 14 years of 8-day snapshots of the global land surface at a nominal spatial resolution of 500-meters for users who wish to retain full temporal resolution and interannual variability; and 2) multiyear averages of the 8-day snapshots, here referred to as "climatologies" of roughness, which retain underlying seasonality. Both products are suitable for use in data assimilation and reanalyses such as the National Climate Assessment Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS), for which these products were initially developed.

Borak, Jordan S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Evaluation of Improvements to the TRMM Microwave Rain Algorithm

Improvements made to the Version 5 TRMM passive microwave rain retrieval algorithm (2A-12) are evaluated using independent data. Surface rain rate estimates from the Version 5 TRMM TMI (2A-12), PR (2A-25) and TMI/PR Combined (2B-31) algorithms and ground-based radar estimates for selected coincident subset datasets in 1998 over Melbourne and Kwajalein show varying degrees of agreement. The surface rain rates are then classified into convective and stratiform rain types over ocean, land, and coastal areas for more detailed comparisons to the ground radar measurements. These comparisons lead to a better understanding of the relative performances of the current TRMM rain algorithms. For example, at Melbourne more than 80% of the radar-derived rainfall is classified as convective rain. Convective rain from the TRMM rain algorithms is less than that from ground radar measurements, while TRMM stratiform rain is much greater. Rain area coverage from 2A-12 is also in reasonable agreement with ground radar measurements, with about 25% more over ocean and 25% less over land and coastal areas. Retrieved rain rates from the improved (Version 6) 2A-12 algorithm will be compared to 2A-25, 2B-31, and ground-based radar measurements to evaluate the impact of improvements to 2A-12 in Version 6. An important improvement to the Version 6 2A-12 algorithm is the retrieval of Q1/Q2 (latent heating/drying) profiles in addition to the surface rain rate and hydrometeor profiles. In order to ascertain the credibility of the new products, retrieved Q1/Q2 profiles are compared to independent ground-based estimates. Analyses of dual-Doppler radar data in conjunction with coincident rawinsonde data yield estimates of the vertical distributions of diabatic heating/drying at high horizontal resolution for selected cases over the Kwajalein and LBA field sites. The estimated vertical heating/drying structures appear to be reasonable. Comparisons of Q1/Q2 profiles from Version 6 2A-12 and the ground-based estimates are in progress. Retrieved Q1/Q2 structures will also be compared to MM5 hurricane simulations for selected cases. The results of these intercomparisons will be presented at the conference.

Yang, Song↗
NASA NTRS2016

Validation of AIRS V6 Surface Temperature over Greenland with GCN and NOAA Stations

This work compares the temporal and spatial characteristics of the AIRSAMSU (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A) Version 6 and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Collection 5 derived surface temperatures over Greenland. To estimate uncertainties in space-based surface temperature measurements, we re-projected the MODIS Ice Surface Temperature (IST) to 0.5 by 0.5 degree spatial resolution. We also re-gridded AIRS Skin Temperature (Ts) into the same grid but classified with different cloud conditions and surface types. These co-located data sets make intercomparison between the two instruments relatively straightforward. Using this approach, the spatial comparison between the monthly mean AIRS Ts and MODIS IST is in good agreement with RMS 2K for May 2012. This approach also allows the detection of any long-term calibration drift and the careful examination of calibration consistency in the MODIS and AIRS temperature data record. The temporal correlations between temperature data are also compared with those from in-situ measurements from GC-Net (GCN) and NOAA stations. The coherent time series of surface temperature evident in the correlation between AIRS Ts and GCN temperatures suggest that at monthly time scales both observations capture the same climate signal over Greenland. It is also suggested that AIRS surface air temperature (Ta) can be used to estimate the boundary layer inversion.

AIRS↗
NASA NTRS1983

Soil temperature investigations using satellite acquired thermal-infrared data in semi-arid regions

Thermal-infrared data from the Heat Capacity Mapping Mission satellite were used to map the spatial distribution of diurnal surface temperatures and to estimate mean annual soil temperatures (MAST) and annual surface temperature amplitudes (AMP) in semi-arid east central Utah. Diurnal data with minimal snow and cloud cover were selected for five dates throughout a yearly period and geometrically co-registered. Rubber-sheet stretching was aided by the WARP program which allowed preview of image transformations. Daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures were averaged to generation average daily temperature (ADT) data set for each of the five dates. Five ADT values for each pixel were used to fit a sine curve describing the theoretical annual surface temperature response as defined by a solution of a one-dimensinal heat flow equation. Linearization of the equation produced estimates of MAST and AMP plus associated confidence statistics. MAST values were grouped into classes and displayed on a color video screen. Diurnal surface temperatures and MAST were primarily correlated with elevation.

Day, R. L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Upper bounds for 21st-century surface air temperatures in the Western United States

The last decade has seen a large number of severe heatwaves that were unprecedented in the observational record, highlighting challenges associated with observationally-based statistical quantification of the likelihood and magnitude of future extreme temperatures. An alternative to such probabilistic assessments is identification of upper bounds that quantify the hottest surface air temperatures that can possibly be achieved by the end of the 21st century. Theory, simulations, and observational analyses support the existence of a finite upper bound for surface air temperature; however, estimates for future upper-bound values that are realistic and usable for planning remain unavailable. Here, we combine atmospheric theory with large ensembles of dynamically downscaled projections to estimate historical and end-of-century upper bounds for surface air temperatures. A number of physical mechanisms can influence upper bounds, and at the end of the 21st century, estimates based on mechanisms that yield more moderate upper-bounds produce values around 60∘C for much of the Western United States and in excess of 80∘C for the hottest parts of the domain. Even cooler high-altitude locations have end-of-century upper bounds over 50∘C. Although these upper-bound estimates might seem implausibly large, increases in the upper bounds over the 21st century are similar to increases in dynamically downscaled peak surface temperatures after adjusting those downscaled temperatures to eliminate the possibly biased model trends in surface specific humidity. While upper bound estimates are high relative to historical observations, they nonetheless suggest that heatwave intensity risk is bounded, with uncertainty dominated by projections of surface and upper-level humidity.

Risser, Mark D↗