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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 919 records · Page 51
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Statistical Process Control and Capability Study on the Water Content Measurements in NASA Glenn's Icing Research Tunnel

The Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) at NASA Glenn Research Center follows the recommended practice for icing tunnel calibration outlined in SAE's ARP5905 document. The calibration team has followed the schedule of a full calibration every five years with a check calibration done every six months following. The liquid water content of the IRT has maintained stability within in the specifications presented to customers that the variation is within +/- 10% of the calibrated, target measurement. With recent measurements and instrumentation errors, a more thorough assessment of error source was desired. By constructing statistical process control charts, the ability to determine how the instrument varies in the short term, mid term, and long term was gained. The control charts offer a view of instrument error, facility error, or installation changes. It was discovered that there was a shift from target to mean baseline thus leading to the study of the overall capability indices of the liquid water content measuring instrument to perform within specifications defined in the IRT. This presentation describes data processing procedures for the Multi-Element Sensor in the IRT, including collision efficiency corrections, canonical correlation analysis, Chauvenet's Criterion for rejection of data, distribution check of data, and mean, median and mode for construction of control charts. Further data is presented to describe the repeatability of the IRT with the Multi-Element Sensor and the ability to maintain a stable process for the defined calibration schedule.

Timko, Emily N.↗
DOE OSTI2015

IMFIT: A FAST, FLEXIBLE NEW PROGRAM FOR ASTRONOMICAL IMAGE FITTING

I describe a new, open-source astronomical image-fitting program called IMFIT, specialized for galaxies but potentially useful for other sources, which is fast, flexible, and highly extensible. A key characteristic of the program is an object-oriented design that allows new types of image components (two-dimensional surface-brightness functions) to be easily written and added to the program. Image functions provided with IMFIT include the usual suspects for galaxy decompositions (Sérsic, exponential, Gaussian), along with Core-Sérsic and broken-exponential profiles, elliptical rings, and three components that perform line-of-sight integration through three-dimensional luminosity-density models of disks and rings seen at arbitrary inclinations. Available minimization algorithms include Levenberg-Marquardt, Nelder-Mead simplex, and Differential Evolution, allowing trade-offs between speed and decreased sensitivity to local minima in the fit landscape. Minimization can be done using the standard χ{sup 2} statistic (using either data or model values to estimate per-pixel Gaussian errors, or else user-supplied error images) or Poisson-based maximum-likelihood statistics; the latter approach is particularly appropriate for cases of Poisson data in the low-count regime. I show that fitting low-signal-to-noise ratio galaxy images using χ{sup 2} minimization and individual-pixel Gaussian uncertainties can lead to significant biases in fitted parameter values, which are avoided if a Poisson-based statistic is used; this is true even when Gaussian read noise is present.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2012

New Approaches to Quantifying Transport Model Error in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations

In recent years, much progress has been made in observing CO2 distributions from space. However, the use of these observations to infer source/sink distributions in inversion studies continues to be complicated by difficulty in quantifying atmospheric transport model errors. We will present results from several different experiments designed to quantify different aspects of transport error using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). In the first set of experiments, an ensemble of simulations is constructed using perturbations to parameters in the model s moist physics and turbulence parameterizations that control sub-grid scale transport of trace gases. Analysis of the ensemble spread and scales of temporal and spatial variability among the simulations allows insight into how parameterized, small-scale transport processes influence simulated CO2 distributions. In the second set of experiments, atmospheric tracers representing model error are constructed using observation minus analysis statistics from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The goal of these simulations is to understand how errors in large scale dynamics are distributed, and how they propagate in space and time, affecting trace gas distributions. These simulations will also be compared to results from NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project that quantified the impact of uncertainty in satellite constrained CO2 flux estimates on atmospheric mixing ratios to assess the major factors governing uncertainty in global and regional trace gas distributions.

Ott, L.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Correction of Dual-PRF Doppler Velocity Outliers in the Presence of Aliasing

Abstract In Doppler weather radars, the presence of unfolding errors or outliers is a well-known quality issue for radial velocity fields estimated using the dual–pulse repetition frequency (PRF) technique. Postprocessing methods have been developed to correct dual-PRF outliers, but these need prior application of a dealiasing algorithm for an adequate correction. This paper presents an alternative procedure based on circular statistics that corrects dual-PRF errors in the presence of extended Nyquist aliasing. The correction potential of the proposed method is quantitatively tested by means of velocity field simulations and is exemplified in the application to real cases, including severe storm events. The comparison with two other existing correction methods indicates an improved performance in the correction of clustered outliers. The technique proposed is well suited for real-time applications requiring high-quality Doppler radar velocity fields, such as wind shear and mesocyclone detection algorithms, or assimilation in numerical weather prediction models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Characterizing Quantum Devices Using Model Selection

Quantum information processors are a new kind of computing device with the potential to solve certain problems very quickly. The quantum bits, or "ʺqubits,"ʺ that enable such processors are being developed at Sandia and around the world. In support of this effort, Sandia’s Center for Computing Research is designing methods and algorithms to characterize and debug the behavior of experimental qubits, such as trapped ions and electron spins in silicon. This is a challenge, because qubits are hard to characterize for exactly the same reason that they are powerful. Their behavior (and misbehavior) is far richer and more complicated than that of classical bits! The most reliable models of quantum errors have infinitely many parameters, and we never have enough data to fit all of them. Until now, researchers simply threw out most of these parameters resulting in a crude approximation that makes the problem tractable, but isn’t reliable or accurate enough for Sandia’s experimental work. Our new techniques use statistical model selection to identify “significant” error parameters on the fly, applying a data-­‐‑driven information criterion to choose a Hilbert space that describes the data well without overfitting. To find a reliable criterion, we needed to evaluate many candidates on an enormous corpus of test cases–for which we relied on Red Sky’s ability to run parallel Monte Carlo simulations. Our computations demonstrate how classic model selection methods have to be modified for quantum devices. These results will enable new techniques that identify the effective dimension of as-­‐‑built qubits on the fly, and then use this information to reliably pin down error behaviors and produce successively better and more useful qubits. This project highlights the close and productive relationship between Sandia and the University of New Mexico, where Travis Scholten is working towards a Ph.D. in physics. Both the intellectual environment of UNM and the high-­‐‑powered supercomputing available at Sandia were critical ingredients in achieving our research goals.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Tunable power law in the desynchronization events of coupled chaotic electronic circuits

We study the statistics of the amplitude of the synchronization error in chaotic electronic circuits coupled through linear feedback. Depending on the coupling strength, our system exhibits three qualitatively different regimes of synchronization: weak coupling yields independent oscillations; moderate to strong coupling produces a regime of intermittent synchronization known as attractor bubbling; and stronger coupling produces complete synchronization. In the regime of moderate coupling, the probability distribution for the sizes of desynchronization events follows a power law, with an exponent that can be adjusted by changing the coupling strength. Such power-law distributions are interesting, as they appear in many complex systems. However, most of the systems with such a behavior have a fixed value for the exponent of the power law, while here we present an example of a system where the exponent of the power law is easily tuned in real time.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Full-stack Quantification of Variability in Predicting Ion Transport Properties using Machine-learned Interatomic Potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have become the state-of-the-art for performing accurate, scalable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. It is therefore crucial to understand and quantify the reliability of MLIPs for downstream property predictions. Uncertainty in predicted properties can arise from limitations in first-principles training data, intrinsic MLIP model errors in representing the data, and the statistical noise introduced during subsequent MD simulations. Using ion transport in Li7P3S11 as a case study, we systematically assess the impact of training set size and selection, neural network stochasticity, and MD sampling statistics on predicted diffusivity and activation energy. We find that when using equivariant MLIP architectures with standard MD protocols, uncertainty arising from MD sampling dominates over model-induced errors. In contrast, MLIP errors relative to the underlying first-principles data are consistently minor. Given this, there are two main routes to improving the accuracy of predictions based on MLIP potentials: adopting higher accuracy reference data generation methods, and improving the MD sampling statistics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Modeling energy balance while correcting for measurement error via free knot splines

Measurements of energy balance components (energy intake, energy expenditure, changes in energy stores) are often plagued with measurement error. Doubly-labeled water can measure energy intake (EI) with negligible error, but is expensive and cumbersome. An alternative approach that is gaining popularity is to use the energy balance principle, by measuring energy expenditure (EE) and change in energy stores (ES) and then back-calculate EI. Gold standard methods for EE and ES exist and are known to give accurate measurements, albeit at a high cost. We propose a joint statistical model to assess the measurement error in cheaper, non-intrusive measures of EE and ES. We let the unknown true EE and ES for individuals be latent variables, and model them using a bivariate distribution. We try both a bivariate Normal as well as a Dirichlet Process Mixture Model, and compare the results via simulation. Our approach, is the first to account for the dependencies that exist in individuals’ daily EE and ES. We employ semiparametric regression with free knot splines for measurements with error, and linear components for error free covariates. We adopt a Bayesian approach to estimation and inference and use Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo to generate draws from the posterior distribution. Based on the semiparameteric regression, we develop a calibration equation that adjusts a cheaper, less reliable estimate, closer to the true value. Along with this calibrated value, our method also gives credible intervals to assess uncertainty. A simulation study shows our calibration helps produce a more accurate estimate. Furthermore, our approach compares favorably in terms of prediction to other commonly used models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1979

Design study for future satellite microwave scatterometers, part 3

A computerized simulation analysis for a number of scatterometer antenna configuration and polarization modes including the Seasat scatterometer (SASS) is presented. The results of the simulations were expressed in terms of performance statistics. These statistics relate to the wind direction alias removal capability and to the rms sensing errors for friction velocity and wind direction X. The statistics are analyzed, and optimum scatterometer configurations are recommended. The accuracy of the SASS in measuring U* and X, and its capability to resolve wind direction aliases are assessed.

Wentz, F. J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Inversion of data from diffraction-limited multiwavelength remote sensors. I - Linear case

The remote sensing inverse problem is considered in which the sensor does not necessarily view the same area on the earth at each wavelength, and spatial correlations of the geophysical parameters may be present. Under the conditions of linearity and stationary statistics, the minimum mean-square error solution to the problem of inverting such data is a spatial filter of the Wiener-Kolmogorov class. The resulting remote-sensing system can be characterized by an impulse response matrix in ordinary space or by a transfer matrix in frequency space. A signal-to-noise matrix for the geophysical parameters to be sensed is also defined; this matrix depends on the postulated a priori statistics and on the characteristics of the remote-sensing instrument. The system transfer matrix and the signal-to-noise matrix are simultaneously diagonalizable. The optimum transfer matrix filters out of the estimate vector those eigenparameters for which eigenvalues of the signal-to-noise matrix are less than unity.

Rosenkranz, P. W.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The effects of long delay and transmission errors on the performance of TP-4 implementations

A set of tools that allows us to measure and examine the effects of transmission delay and errors on the performance of TP-4 implementations has been developed. The tools give insight into both the large- and small-scale behaviors of an implementation. These tools have been systematically applied to a commercial implementation of TP-4. Measurements show, among other things, that a 2-second one-way transmission delay and an effective bit-error rate of 1 error per 100,000 bits can result in a 95 percent reduction in TP-4 throughput. The detailed statistics give insight into why transmission delay and errors affect this implementations so significantly and support a number of 'lessons learned' that could be applied to TP-4 implementations that operate more robustly across networks with long transmission delays and transmission errors.

Durst, Robert C.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Quantitative validation of carbon-fiber laminate low velocity impact simulations

Simulations of low velocity impact with a flat cylindrical indenter upon a carbon fiber fabric reinforced polymer laminate are rigorously validated. Comparison of the impact energy absorption between the model and experiment is used as the validation metric. Additionally, non-destructive evaluation, including ultrasonic scans and three-dimensional computed tomography, provide qualitative validation of the models. The simulations include delamination, matrix cracks and fiber breaks. An orthotropic damage and failure constitutive model, capable of predicting progressive damage and failure, is developed in conjunction and described. An ensemble of simulations incorporating model parameter uncertainties is used to predict a response distribution which is then compared to experimental output using appropriate statistical methods. Lastly, the model form errors are exposed and corrected for use in an additional blind validation analysis. The result is a quantifiable confidence in material characterization and model physics when simulating low velocity impact in structures of interest.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1981

Land cover analysis of James City County, Virginia

The approach used to obtain reliable countywide forest resource data, including statistics and a forest cover distribution map from LANDSAT data is described. Comparison of results of the LANDSAT anlysis and U.S. Forestry Survey data is presented in a table. Pine, oak/pine, and oak/hickory accounted for 22.3%, 32.6% and 45.2% respectively of the total forest area in the LANDSAT analysis, compared to 22.8%, 30.1%. and 47.1% in the Forest Survey. The corresponding figures for each forest type differ at most 2.5% for the mixed forest. The total county area in forest land measured using LANDSAT was underestimated by 1,409 acres, a 2.2% error based on the Forest Survey statistics. However, the estimate of 61,242 acres fell well within the known 4% uncertainty of the estimate for the Forest Survey figures (62,651 acres + or - 2,544 acres).

Copony, J. A.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Robust verification analysis

We introduce a new methodology for inferring the accuracy of computational simulations through the practice of solution verification. We demonstrate this methodology on examples from computational heat transfer, fluid dynamics and radiation transport. Our methodology is suited to both well- and ill-behaved sequences of simulations. Our approach to the analysis of these sequences of simulations incorporates expert judgment into the process directly via a flexible optimization framework, and the application of robust statistics. The expert judgment is systematically applied as constraints to the analysis, and together with the robust statistics guards against over-emphasis on anomalous analysis results. We have named our methodology Robust Verification. Our methodology is based on utilizing multiple constrained optimization problems to solve the verification model in a manner that varies the analysis' underlying assumptions. Constraints applied in the analysis can include expert judgment regarding convergence rates (bounds and expectations) as well as bounding values for physical quantities (e.g., positivity of energy or density). This approach then produces a number of error models, which are then analyzed through robust statistical techniques (median instead of mean statistics). This provides self-contained, data and expert informed error estimation including uncertainties for both the solution itself and order of convergence. Our method produces high quality results for the well-behaved cases relatively consistent with existing practice. The methodology can also produce reliable results for ill-behaved circumstances predicated on appropriate expert judgment. We demonstrate the method and compare the results with standard approaches used for both code and solution verification on well-behaved and ill-behaved simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

Data clustering for the high-resolution alignment of microstructure and strain fields

The emergence of small-scale deformation mapping by a combination of scanning electron microscopy and digital image correlation (SEM-DIC) has enabled full-field investigations into the complex roles of microstructure on microscale deformation mechanisms. However, these investigations are hindered by errors in alignment between the microstructure data, generally acquired by electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), and the microscale strain data obtained by SEM-DIC. Distortions, stitching artifacts, and spatial resolution differences between microstructure and strain fields can lead to misalignments on the order of μms. This alignment uncertainty introduces error into microstructure-strain localization analyses and precludes the examination of deformation mechanisms near grain boundaries. To improve alignment between EBSD-obtained grain boundaries and SEM-DIC strain data, an approach was created wherein a mantle was first established around the EBSD-acquired grain boundaries. Strain data was then clustered within this mantle using a k-means algorithm to identify grain boundary strain localization, and these boundary points were fit to obtain a continuous curve for each individual boundary. Clustered point outliers, such as those due to grain boundary-local dislocation slip, were statistically identified by using an absolute error threshold and removed from the grain boundary fit. The ending identification of grain boundaries in the microscale strain data is significantly improved from EBSD-identified boundaries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Notes on power of normality tests of error terms in regression models

Normality is one of the basic assumptions in applying statistical procedures. For example in linear regression most of the inferential procedures are based on the assumption of normality, i.e. the disturbance vector is assumed to be normally distributed. Failure to assess non-normality of the error terms may lead to incorrect results of usual statistical inference techniques such as t-test or F-test. Thus, error terms should be normally distributed in order to allow us to make exact inferences. As a consequence, normally distributed stochastic errors are necessary in order to make a not misleading inferences which explains a necessity and importance of robust tests of normality. Therefore, the aim of this contribution is to discuss normality testing of error terms in regression models. In this contribution, we introduce the general RT class of robust tests for normality, and present and discuss the trade-off between power and robustness of selected classical and robust normality tests of error terms in regression models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change

Abstract. This study investigated the computational benefits of using multi-fidelity statistical estimation (MFSE) algorithms to quantify uncertainty in the mass change of Humboldt Glacier, Greenland, between 2007 and 2100 using a single climate change scenario. The goal of this study was to determine whether MFSE can use multiple models of varying cost and accuracy to reduce the computational cost of estimating the mean and variance of the projected mass change of a glacier. The problem size and complexity were chosen to reflect the challenges posed by future continental-scale studies while still facilitating a computationally feasible investigation of MFSE methods. When quantifying uncertainty introduced by a high-dimensional parameterization of the basal friction field, MFSE was able to reduce the mean-squared error in the estimates of the statistics by well over an order of magnitude when compared to a single-fidelity approach that only used the highest-fidelity model. This significant reduction in computational cost was achieved despite the low-fidelity models used being incapable of capturing the local features of the ice-flow fields predicted by the high-fidelity model. The MFSE algorithms were able to effectively leverage the high correlation between each model's predictions of mass change, which all responded similarly to perturbations in the model inputs. Consequently, our results suggest that MFSE could be highly useful for reducing the cost of computing continental-scale probabilistic projections of sea-level rise due to ice-sheet mass change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗