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DOE OSTI2021

Anomaly Detection, Localization and Classification using Drifting Synchrophasor Data Streams

With ongoing automation and digitization of the electric power system, several Phasor Measurement Units(PMUs) have been deployed for monitoring and control. PMU data can have multiple anomalies, and many of the researchers in the past have concentrated on training machine/deep learning algorithms offline for anomaly detection over PMU data (i.e., not in real time). These machine/deep learning algorithms, when trained offline on a sample rather than a population of the dataset, fail to consider the dynamic behavior of the power grid in real-time, resulting in low accuracy. Considering the dynamic behavior of the power grid (e.g., change in load, generation, distributed energy resources (DERs) switching, network, controls), the definition of data anomalies varies in time and requires online training. A fundamental challenge is to enable online (i.e., real-time) training of machine/deep learning algorithms for anomaly detection over streaming PMU data. While machine/deep learning is often desirable to manage data streams, training a deep learning algorithm over streaming PMU data is nontrivial due to changes in data statistics caused by dynamic streaming data. This paper proposes PMUNET: a novel device-level deep learning-based data-driven approach for anomaly detection, localization, and classification over streaming PMU data, using online learning and multivariate data-drift detection algorithm .Two variants of PMUNET, Dynamic data Change Driven Learning (DCDL) and Continuity Driven Learning (CDL), are proposed and compared. DCDL aims to train the deep learning algorithm whenever the definition of anomaly changes due to the power grid dynamics. On the other hand, CDL continuously trains the deep learning algorithm over the PMU data-stream. The experimental results verify that DCDL outperforms CDL and other efficient anomaly detection methods over multiple events such as faults and load/ generator/capacitor/DERs variations/switching for IEEE 14 and 39 Bus test system as well as real PMU industrial data. The result verifies that DCDL variant of PMUNET improves over existing approach with a gain of 2% - 10% in terms of accuracy, false-positive rate, and false-negative rate.

adversarial deep learning↗

DOE OSTI2017

Galaxy Evolution in the Radio Band: The Role of Star-forming Galaxies and Active Galactic Nuclei

We investigate the astrophysics of radio-emitting star-forming galaxies and active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and elucidate their statistical properties in the radio band, including luminosity functions, redshift distributions, and number counts at sub-mJy flux levels, which will be crucially probed by next-generation radio continuum surveys. Specifically, we exploit the model-independent approach by Mancuso et al. to compute the star formation rate functions, the AGN duty cycles, and the conditional probability of a star-forming galaxy to host an AGN with given bolometric luminosity. Coupling these ingredients with the radio emission properties associated with star formation and nuclear activity, we compute relevant statistics at different radio frequencies and disentangle the relative contribution of star-forming galaxies and AGNs in different radio luminosity, radio flux, and redshift ranges. Finally, we highlight that radio-emitting star-forming galaxies and AGNs are expected to host supermassive black holes accreting with different Eddington ratio distributions and to occupy different loci in the galaxy main-sequence diagrams. These specific predictions are consistent with current data sets but need to be tested with larger statistics via future radio data with multiband coverage on wide areas, as will become routinely achievable with the advent of the Square Kilometre Array and its precursors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2014

Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Bayesian analysis of classical shadows

Abstract The method of classical shadows proposed by Huang, Kueng, and Preskill heralds remarkable opportunities for quantum estimation with limited measurements. Yet its relationship to established quantum tomographic approaches, particularly those based on likelihood models, remains unclear. In this article, we investigate classical shadows through the lens of Bayesian mean estimation (BME). In direct tests on numerical data, BME is found to attain significantly lower error on average, but classical shadows prove remarkably more accurate in specific situations—such as high-fidelity ground truth states—which are improbable in a fully uniform Hilbert space. We then introduce an observable-oriented pseudo-likelihood that successfully emulates the dimension-independence and state-specific optimality of classical shadows, but within a Bayesian framework that ensures only physical states. Our research reveals how classical shadows effect important departures from conventional thinking in quantum state estimation, as well as the utility of Bayesian methods for uncovering and formalizing statistical assumptions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2014

The incidence of stellar mergers and mass gainers among massive stars

Because the majority of massive stars are born as members of close binary systems, populations of massive main-sequence stars contain stellar mergers and products of binary mass transfer. We simulate populations of massive stars accounting for all major binary evolution effects based on the most recent binary parameter statistics and extensively evaluate the effect of model uncertainties. Assuming constant star formation, we find that 8{sub −4}{sup +9}% of a sample of early-type stars are the products of a merger resulting from a close binary system. In total we find that 30{sub −15}{sup +10}% of massive main-sequence stars are the products of binary interaction. We show that the commonly adopted approach to minimize the effects of binaries on an observed sample by excluding systems detected as binaries through radial velocity campaigns can be counterproductive. Systems with significant radial velocity variations are mostly pre-interaction systems. Excluding them substantially enhances the relative incidence of mergers and binary products in the non-radial velocity variable sample. This poses a challenge for testing single stellar evolutionary models. It also raises the question of whether certain peculiar classes of stars, such as magnetic O stars, are the result of binary interaction and it emphasizes the need to further study the effect of binarity on the diagnostics that are used to derive the fundamental properties (star-formation history, initial mass function, mass-to-light ratio) of stellar populations nearby and at high redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Numerical methods and hypoexponential approximations for gamma distributed delay differential equations

Abstract Gamma distributed delay differential equations (DDEs) arise naturally in many modelling applications. However, appropriate numerical methods for generic gamma distributed DDEs have not previously been implemented. Modellers have therefore resorted to approximating the gamma distribution with an Erlang distribution and using the linear chain technique to derive an equivalent system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). In this work, we address the lack of appropriate numerical tools for gamma distributed DDEs in two ways. First, we develop a functional continuous Runge–Kutta (FCRK) method to numerically integrate the gamma distributed DDE without resorting to Erlang approximation. We prove the fourth-order convergence of the FCRK method and perform numerical tests to demonstrate the accuracy of the new numerical method. Nevertheless, FCRK methods for infinite delay DDEs are not widely available in existing scientific software packages. As an alternative approach to solving gamma distributed DDEs, we also derive a hypoexponential approximation of the gamma distributed DDE. This hypoexponential approach is a more accurate approximation of the true gamma distributed DDE than the common Erlang approximation but, like the Erlang approximation, can be formulated as a system of ODEs and solved numerically using standard ODE software. Using our FCRK method to provide reference solutions, we show that the common Erlang approximation may produce solutions that are qualitatively different from the underlying gamma distributed DDE. However, the proposed hypoexponential approximations do not have this limitation. Finally, we apply our hypoexponential approximations to perform statistical inference on synthetic epidemiological data to illustrate the utility of the hypoexponential approximation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-531: Large--Scale DVH Quality Study: Correlated Aims Lead Relaxations

Purpose: Intensity modulated radiation therapy plans are designed to optimally target a tumor while sparing surrounding tissue. Desired dose distributions are iteratively approached via inverse planning. This leads to tradeoffs between clinical objectives for the planning target volume (PTV), organs at risk, and normal tissues. Dose volume histogram (DVHs) related aims are followed that are either institutional or internationally recommended. We analyze common goals and identify potential reasons that often lead to tradeoffs. Methods: 524 IMRT plans for various tumor sites were analyzed based on the main institutional DVH goal for PTV (D95) and the recommendations by ICRU-83 (D2, D50, and D98). Robust statistical tools are developed and applied to ensure that the results are immune to data uncertainties. The probability of violation was measured for each of the DVH goals based on the frequency of not meeting recommended doses. Conditional probabilities for satisfying and/or violating DVH aims were computed to test the hypothesized pair-wise relations between DVH aims. For example, for plans that satisfied D50, the probability of violating D98 was computed via P(D98 < 95% | 98% ≤ D50 ≤ 102%). The equality constraint D50 = 100% was relaxed to encompass the range [98,102]%. Results: A large majority of cases (88%) satisfied the institutional goal for PTV of D95 ≤ 95%. Similar consensus existed for D98. 51% of cases satisfied D2 ≥ 107%. However, only 18% of cases satisfied D50. The conditional probability showed correlations amongst the studied DVH goals. In fact, a negative correlation was revealed between D50 and D95 (and D98), suggesting that these competing goals cannot be satisfied concurrently. Conclusion: The majority of plans followed the institutional guidelines. The reason for their deviation from international recommendations seems to be that the latter goals are competing and cannot be satisfied concurrently in clinical practice.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing anaerobic digestion of lignocellulosic biomass by mechanical cotreatment

Abstract Background The aim of this study was to increase the accessibility and accelerate the breakdown of lignocellulosic biomass to methane in an anaerobic fermentation system by mechanicalcotreatment: milling during fermentation, as an alternative to conventionalpretreatment prior to biological deconstruction. Effluent from a mesophilic anaerobic digester running with unpretreated senescent switchgrass as the predominant carbon source was collected and subjected to ball milling for 0.5, 2, 5 and 10 min. Following this, a batch fermentation test was conducted with this material in triplicate for an additional 18 days with unmilled effluent as the ‘status quo’ control. Results The results indicate 0.5 – 10 min of cotreatment increased sugar solubilization by 5– 13% when compared to the unmilled control, with greater solubilization correlated with increased milling duration. Biogas concentrations ranged from 44% to 55.5% methane with the balance carbon dioxide. The total biogas production was statistically higher than the unmilled control for all treatments with 2 or more minutes of milling (α = 0.1). Cotreatment also decreased mean particle size. Energy consumption measurements of a lab-scale mill indicate that longer durations of milling offer diminishing benefits with respect to additional methane production. Conclusions Cotreatment in anaerobic digestion systems, as demonstrated in this study, provides an alternative approach to conventional pretreatments to increase biogas production from lignocellulosic grassy material.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology↗

NASA NTRS2004

Launch Vehicle Propulsion Parameter Design Multiple Selection Criteria

The optimization tool described herein addresses and emphasizes the use of computer tools to model a system and focuses on a concept development approach for a liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen single-stage-to-orbit system, but more particularly the development of the optimized system using new techniques. This methodology uses new and innovative tools to run Monte Carlo simulations, genetic algorithm solvers, and statistical models in order to optimize a design concept. The concept launch vehicle and propulsion system were modeled and optimized to determine the best design for weight and cost by varying design and technology parameters. Uncertainty levels were applied using Monte Carlo Simulations and the model output was compared to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Space Shuttle Main Engine. Several key conclusions are summarized here for the model results. First, the Gross Liftoff Weight and Dry Weight were 67% higher for the design case for minimization of Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost when compared to the weights determined by the minimization of Gross Liftoff Weight case. In turn, the Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost was 53% higher for optimized Gross Liftoff Weight case when compared to the cost determined by case for minimization of Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost. Therefore, a 53% increase in Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost results in a 67% reduction in Gross Liftoff Weight. Secondly, the tool outputs define the sensitivity of propulsion parameters, technology and cost factors and how these parameters differ when cost and weight are optimized separately. A key finding was that for a Space Shuttle Main Engine thrust level the oxidizer/fuel ratio of 6.6 resulted in the lowest Gross Liftoff Weight rather than at 5.2 for the maximum specific impulse, demonstrating the relationships between specific impulse, engine weight, tank volume and tank weight. Lastly, the optimum chamber pressure for Gross Liftoff Weight minimization was 2713 pounds per square inch as compared to 3162 for the Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost optimization case. This chamber pressure range is close to 3000 pounds per square inch for the Space Shuttle Main Engine.

Shelton, Joey Dewayne↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using the Monte Carlo Method to Evaluate the Reliability of Screening Multifamily Housing for Radon

When screening for radon in a multifamily housing complex using a fixed sample density (e.g., testing 1 in 10 (10%) or 1 in 4 units (25%)), the statistical confidence is dependent upon the assumed elevated radon frequency. For example, testing 25% of units in a complex estimated to have eight units with elevated radon levels will provide 90% confidence. However, if it is assumed that, in the same complex, there are only three units with elevated radon levels, the confidence drops to around 58% for the same sample density. Furthermore, in the previous example, if elevated radon levels are not found during the screening, all that can be stated is that the screening provides 90% confidence that there are no more than seven units in the complex with elevated radon levels. To more fully illustrate this uncertainty, ten separate multifamily housing radon data sets with 1 to 10 units with radon levels ≥4 pCi/L (Table 1) were selected for analysis using the Monte Carlo statistical method. Unlike other mathematically based statistical approaches, the Monte Carlo statistical method relies on repeated analysis of randomly selected data. from a 100% sampled complex at various sample densities. Success for each simulation is defined as finding at least one unit with elevated radon levels. In this statistical method, confidence in the overarching conclusion can be greatly enhanced by repeating the simulated screening hundreds or even thousands of times. For this study, each of the ten data sets was simulated 1,000 times. For each simulation, the data set was randomized three times before the fixed percentage of data was selected.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2024

Determining the tilt of the Raman laser beam using an optical method for atom gravimeters

The tilt of a Raman laser beam is a major systematic error in precision gravity measurement using atom interferometry. The conventional approach to evaluating this tilt error involves modulating the direction of the Raman laser beam and conducting time-consuming gravity measurements to identify the error minimum. In this work, we demonstrate a method to expediently determine the tilt of the Raman laser beam by transforming the tilt angle measurement into characterization of parallelism, which integrates the optical method of aligning the laser direction, commonly used in freely falling corner-cube gravimeters, into an atom gravimeter. A position-sensing detector (PSD) is utilized to quantitatively characterize the parallelism between the test beam and the reference beam, thus measuring the tilt precisely and rapidly. After carefully positioning the PSD and calibrating the relationship between the distance measured by the PSD and the tilt angle measured by the tiltmeter, we achieved a statistical uncertainty of less than 30 µrad in the tilt measurement. Furthermore, we compared the results obtained through this optical method with those from the conventional tilt modulation method for gravity measurement. The comparison validates that our optical method can achieve tilt determination with an accuracy level of better than 200 µrad, corresponding to a systematic error of 20 µGal in g measurement. This work has practical implications for real-world applications of atom gravimeters.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Iterative Response-Surface-Based Approach for Chance-Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow Considering Dependent Uncertainty

A modern power system is characterized by a stochastic variation of the loads and an increasing penetration of renewable energy generation, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties bring formidable challenges to the power system planning and operation process. To address these challenges, we propose a cost-effective, iterative response-surface-based approach for the chance-constrained AC optimal power-flow problem that aims to ensure the secure operation of the power systems considering dependent uncertainties. Starting from a stochastic-sampling-based framework, we first utilize the copula theory to simulate the dependence among multivariate uncertain inputs. Then, to reduce the prohibitive computational time required in the traditional Monte-Carlo method, we propose, instead of using the original complicated power-system model, to rely on a polynomial-chaos-based response surface. This response surface allows us to efficiently evaluate the time-consuming power-system model at arbitrary distributed sampled values with a negligible computational cost. This further enables us to efficiently conduct an online stochastic testing for the system states that not only screens out the statistical active constraints, but also assists in a better design of the tightened bounds without using any Gaussian or symmetric assumption. Finally, an iterative procedure is executed to fine-tune the optimal solution that better satisfies a predefined probability. The simulations conducted in multiple test systems demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1989

B-737 flight test of curved-path and steep-angle approaches using MLS guidance

A series of flight tests were conducted to collect data for jet transport aircraft flying curved-path and steep-angle approaches using Microwave Landing System (MLS) guidance. During the test, 432 approaches comprising seven different curved-paths and four glidepath angles varying from 3 to 4 degrees were flown in NASA Langley's Boeing 737 aircraft (Transport Systems Research Vehicle) using an MLS ground station at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility. Subject pilots from Piedmont Airlines flew the approaches using conventional cockpit instrumentation (flight director and Horizontal Situation Indicator (HSI). The data collected will be used by FAA procedures specialists to develop standards and criteria for designing MLS terminal approach procedures (TERPS). The use of flight simulation techniques greatly aided the preliminary stages of approach development work and saved a significant amount of costly flight time. This report is intended to complement a data report to be issued by the FAA Office of Aviation Standards which will contain all detailed data analysis and statistics.

Branstetter, J. R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reconstructing Subgrid Cloud Variability Guided by CloudSat/CALIPSO Observations

Predicting realistic cloud subgrid variability remains a challenge for Global Climate Models (GCMs) even though it can play an important role for proper representation of processes pertaining to cloud microphysics, precipitation, and radiation, but also for comparisons with satellite observations which are of much higher resolution than model grids. The diagnostic approach of subgrid cloud variability is commonly handled by subcolumn cloud generators. For a specific GCM, one ideally wants the subgrid variability used for comparisons with satellite observations to be created by the same generator and with the same rules as the one used for model integration. With this in mind, we have embarked in an effort to test and improve cloud subcolumn generators appropriate for GCMs. For this purpose, we use cloud (hydrometeor) products from active observations by the CloudSat radar (CPR) and the CALIPSO lidar (CALIOP). Cloud products from active sensors while suffering significant sampling and coverage drawbacks have the advantage of resolving both horizontal and vertical variability. The main question is: given a profile of cloud condensate mean and variance, can we create a subgrid cloud field that is statistically similar to the observed subgrid cloud field? By “statistically”, we suggest that we do not aspire to reproduce “well” each individual subgrid cloud field of a GCM-scale region, but that our generator performs well for a large ensemble of cases. We simulate radar, passive imager, and radiation flux fields from the observed 2D cloud fields and create one-point statistics; we use the profiles of cloud condensate mean and variance as input to the generator to create subgrid cloud fields; we compare the statistics; we adjust the rules of the generator to create the best possible agreement between the radar, imager and radiation field statistics. In this process, the active observations have actually a dual role: they provide the actual subgrid cloud field which can be reduced to a profile of mean and variance used by the subcolumn generator, but they also provide the rules needed by the generator, such as measures (e.g, decorrelation length) of the vertical overlap of cloud fraction and of the condensate horizontal variability. This presentation will show our progress using Cloudsat and CALIPSO products in this dual fashion.

cloud↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Heated Supersonic Axisymmetric Jet Cases for the NASA Turbulence Modeling Resource

Three new supersonic jet cases were built for the NASA Turbulence Modeling Resource (TMR). These cases were taken from the 6th AIAA Propulsion Aerodynamics Workshop (PAW) nozzle test problem, which utilized data taken at NASA GRC consisting of non-intrusive measurements of jet plume velocities and temperatures, including both mean values and turbulence statistics. The three jet cases all used a Mach 1.63 axisymmetric nozzle: a heated jet for each at on-design conditions, a temperature-matched on-design condition at Mach 1.63, and an off-design heated condition for the Mach 1.63 nozzle. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solutions are obtained using three established Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) codes: Wind-US, FUN3D, and VULCAN-CFD, all using the Menter Shear Stress Transport k- turbulence model with vorticity source term (SST-V). The NASA TMR requires at least two CFD codes yielding essentially identical results to certify that the approaches are verified, meaning that they solve the posed CFD equations as intended. The three codes generally provided very close agreement with each other for jet plume quantities, with the only exception being static temperature. This discrepancy was determined to be the result of whether or not turbulent kinetic energy was considered in the definition of total energy. Validation of the SST-V turbulence model for this case (its level of agreement/disagreement with experimental data) is also addressed.

turbulance↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tractable Learning in Underexcited Power Grids

Estimating the structure of physical flow networks, such as power grids, is critical to secure delivery of energy. This article discusses statistical structure estimation in power grids in the “underexcited” regime, where a subset of internal nodes has zero injection fluctuations. Prior estimation algorithms based on nodal voltages fail for such grids as the voltage covariance matrix is not invertible. Here, we propose a novel topology learning algorithm for learning underexcited general networks. Our algorithm uses physics-informed conservation laws to first identify the zero-injection buses and their neighbors, and then estimates the remaining edges in the grid. We prove the asymptotic correctness of our algorithm for grids with nonadjacent internal zero-injection nodes. More important, we theoretically analyze our algorithm’s efficacy under noisy measurements, and determine bounds on maximum noise under which asymptotically correct recovery is guaranteed. Our approach is validated through simulations with voltage samples generated on test distribution grids with real injection data and nonlinear power flow models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1992

The SERENDIP piggyback SETI project

The SERENDIP project is an ongoing program of monitoring and processing broadband radio signals acquired by existing radio astronomy observatories. SERENDIP operates in a piggyback mode: it makes use of whatever observing plan (sequence of frequencies, sky coordinates, and polarizations) is under way at its host observatory. Moreover, the SERENDIP data acquisition system, once installed, operates autonomously. This approach makes it possible to obtain large amounts of high quality observing time in a manner that is economical and that does not adversely affect ongoing radio astronomy survey work. The SERENDIP II system has been installed at the NRAO 300-foot telescope at Green Bank, West Virginia, and has operated there for several thousand hours. In this report, we summarize our findings from these observations and describe the present status of the project. Two key elements of SERENDIP are the automated data acquisition system that uses adaptive thresholds and logs only statistically significant peaks in the real-time power spectra, and the subsequent off-line analysis programs that identify and reject a variety of interference signals. Several specific correlations have been identified that offer promise. At present, the development and testing of these interference rejection algorithms is the main thrust of our work.

NASA Discipline Number 52-60↗

NASA NTRS2016

Real-Time Early Warning Techniques

Contemporary approaches to aerospace vehicle system monitoring rely heavily on thresholds that represent a compromise between providing warning early enough to avert a mishap while simultaneously minimizing false alarms. While this reliance on thresholds has been in place for decades and has permeated both cockpits and control rooms, we often find it insufficient when retrospectively analyzing data from an accident. To modernize and enhance flight test safety, we introduce new methods of monitoring for anomalous patterns of interaction rather than for thresholds exceedance. For systems with a well characterized baseline we show how the Inductive Monitoring System (IMS), utilized by NASA in the aftermath of the Columbia accident, might be implemented in real-time to provide earlier warning than currently employed techniques. For systems without such a baseline, we introduce new developments in statistical methods relating to critical slowing down, first applied in medicine and physics, which show promise for adaptation to flight test. Finally, the familiar resource constrained environment leads to a reliance on increased instrumentation that is challenging the limits of the current one-sensor, one-indicator threshold paradigm. Existing methods thus fail to accurately reflect the true complexity of a vehicle rich with interdependent interacting systems. We highlight these concepts in a brief summary of the 2001 Air Transat Flight 236 deadstick landing in the Azores. We then suggest control room and cockpit modifications to better display the information gleaned using these novel monitoring methods.

Javorsek, Dan↗