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DOE OSTI2015

DYNAMIC STABILITY OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM: STATISTICALLY INCONCLUSIVE RESULTS FROM ENSEMBLE INTEGRATIONS

Due to the chaotic nature of the solar system, the question of its long-term stability can only be answered in a statistical sense, for instance, based on numerical ensemble integrations of nearby orbits. Destabilization of the inner planets, leading to close encounters and/or collisions can be initiated through a large increase in Mercury's eccentricity, with a currently assumed likelihood of ∼1%. However, little is known at present about the robustness of this number. Here I report ensemble integrations of the full equations of motion of the eight planets and Pluto over 5 Gyr, including contributions from general relativity. The results show that different numerical algorithms lead to statistically different results for the evolution of Mercury's eccentricity (e{sub M}). For instance, starting at present initial conditions (e{sub M}≃0.21), Mercury's maximum eccentricity achieved over 5 Gyr is, on average, significantly higher in symplectic ensemble integrations using heliocentric rather than Jacobi coordinates and stricter error control. In contrast, starting at a possible future configuration (e{sub M}≃0.53), Mercury's maximum eccentricity achieved over the subsequent 500 Myr is, on average, significantly lower using heliocentric rather than Jacobi coordinates. For example, the probability for e{sub M} to increase beyond 0.53 over 500 Myr is >90% (Jacobi) versus only 40%-55% (heliocentric). This poses a dilemma because the physical evolution of the real system—and its probabilistic behavior—cannot depend on the coordinate system or the numerical algorithm chosen to describe it. Some tests of the numerical algorithms suggest that symplectic integrators using heliocentric coordinates underestimate the odds for destabilization of Mercury's orbit at high initial e{sub M}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

THE MATRYOSHKA RUN. II. TIME-DEPENDENT TURBULENCE STATISTICS, STOCHASTIC PARTICLE ACCELERATION, AND MICROPHYSICS IMPACT IN A MASSIVE GALAXY CLUSTER

We use the Matryoshka run to study the time-dependent statistics of structure-formation-driven turbulence in the intracluster medium of a 10{sup 15} M {sub ☉} galaxy cluster. We investigate the turbulent cascade in the inner megaparsec for both compressional and incompressible velocity components. The flow maintains approximate conditions of fully developed turbulence, with departures thereof settling in about an eddy-turnover time. Turbulent velocity dispersion remains above 700 km s{sup –1} even at low mass accretion rate, with the fraction of compressional energy between 10% and 40%. The normalization and the slope of the compressional turbulence are susceptible to large variations on short timescales, unlike the incompressible counterpart. A major merger occurs around redshift z ≅ 0 and is accompanied by a long period of enhanced turbulence, ascribed to temporal clustering of mass accretion related to spatial clustering of matter. We test models of stochastic acceleration by compressional modes for the origin of diffuse radio emission in galaxy clusters. The turbulence simulation model constrains an important unknown of this complex problem and brings forth its dependence on the elusive microphysics of the intracluster plasma. In particular, the specifics of the plasma collisionality and the dissipation physics of weak shocks affect the cascade of compressional modes with strong impact on the acceleration rates. In this context radio halos emerge as complex phenomena in which a hierarchy of processes acting on progressively smaller scales are at work. Stochastic acceleration by compressional modes implies statistical correlation of radio power and spectral index with merging cores distance, both testable in principle with radio surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE MAGNETIC HELICITY SIGNATURE OF THE SOLAR WIND TURBULENCE AT 1 AU

The absolute value of the magnetic helicity spectrum of the solar wind turbulence often has a peak at kinetic scales. This helicity signature is important for understanding the mechanism of the turbulent cascade. In this paper, a statistical analysis of the magnetic helicity is performed. For this purpose, a database of the solar wind intervals with the helicity signature was assembled using Wind spacecraft magnetic and plasma data. New statistically significant correlations between the magnetic helicity and the properties of the background plasma are found. The position of the signature within the spectrum depends on the proton gyroscale and the proton inertial scale. Possible mechanisms responsible for the observed trends are discussed. The helicity peak is interpreted as a result of two competing processes, one of which generates the helicity and the other one eliminates it.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical modelling and Bayesian inversion for a Compton imaging system: application to radioactive source localization

Abstract This paper presents a statistical forward model for a Compton imaging system, called Compton imager. This system, under development at the University of Illinois Urbana Champaign, is a variant of Compton cameras with a single type of sensors which can simultaneously act as scatterers and absorbers. This imager is convenient for imaging situations requiring a wide field of view. The proposed statistical forward model is then used to solve the inverse problem of estimating the location and energy of point-like sources from observed data. This inverse problem is formulated and solved in a Bayesian framework by using a Metropolis within Gibbs algorithm for the estimation of the location, and an expectation-maximization algorithm for the estimation of the energy. This approach leads to more accurate estimation when compared with the deterministic standard back-projection approach, with the additional benefit of uncertainty quantification in the low photon imaging setting.

Tarpau, Cécilia (ORCID:0000000286539490)↗
DOE OSTI2023

A simple data-driven level finding method of many-electron atoms and heavy nuclei based on statistical outlier detection

Here, we report a simple and pure data-driven method to find new energy levels of quantum many-body systems only from observed line wavelengths. In our method, all the possible combinations are computed from known energy levels and wavelengths of unidentified lines. As each excited state exhibits many transition lines to different lower levels, the true levels should be reconstructed coincidentally from many level-line combinations, while the wrong combinations distribute randomly. Such a coincidence can be easily detected statistically. We demonstrate this statistical method by finding new levels for various atomic and nuclear systems from unidentified line lists available online.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Turbulence statistical analysis of the L-H transition and RMPs in KSTAR

Here, we investigate the turbulence statistics associated with low-to-high confinement (L-H) transitions and externally applied resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) in KSTAR. Time-series fluctuations of electron density n e , electron temperature T e , and the time derivative of the poloidal magnetic field dB θ /dt (Mirnov coils) are analysed using information-geometric measures (information rate Γ and information length $\mathcal{L}$ = ∫ Γ dt), together with kurtosis κ and variance σ 2 . In low-density upper single-null plasmas (n e ~ 1.2 x 10 19 m -3 ), a ~80 kHz magnetic mode coupling n e , T e , dB θ /dt and emerges prior to the L-H transition and persists into the edge-localised modes H-mode. Edge-localised RMPs (ERMPs) suppress this coherent mode but enhance intermittency, producing frequent bursts that abruptly reshape the time-dependent probability density functions (PDFs) and generate large spikes in Γ (with smaller changes in κ), signalling ERMP-driven departures from quasi-stationarity. The impact of ERMPs on background fluctuation levels depends on density, radial location, and the fluctuating variable itself ($\tilde{n}$, $\tilde{T}$, $\dot{B}$ θ ), whereas $\mathcal{L}$ provides a robust, regime-agnostic measure of cumulative statistical reorganisation and spatial decorrelation. In particular, at low density we observe weaker coupling between $\tilde{n}$ and $\tilde{T}$, along with a tendency toward decreased radial correlation-most clearly for $\tilde{T}$-under ERMPs. Overall, information geometry cleanly captures intermittent events, quantifies non-equilibrium PDF evolution, and offers a compact, cross-diagnostic metric for assessing resonant magnetic perturbation effects on edge transport and correlation across densities, radial locations, and confinement states.

Kim, Eun-jin [Coventry Univ. (United Kingdom); Seo↗
DOE OSTI2011

Statistical analysis of the correlation between active galactic nuclei and ultra-high energy cosmic rays

We develop the statistical methods for comparing two sets of arrival directions of cosmic rays in which the two-dimensional distribution of arrival directions is reduced to the one-dimensional distributions so that the standard one-dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test can be applied. Then we apply them to the analysis of correlation between the ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECR) with energies above 5.7 × 10{sup 19} eV, observed by Pierre Auger Observatory (PAO) and Akeno Giant Air Shower Array (AGASA), and the active galactic nuclei (AGN) within the distance 100 Mpc. For statistical test, we set up the simple AGN model for UHECR sources in which a certain fraction of observed UHECR are originated from AGN within a chosen distance, assuming that all AGN have equal UHECR luminosity and smearing angle, and the remaining fraction are from the isotropic background contribution. For the PAO data, our methods exclude not only a hypothesis that the observed UHECR are simply isotropically distributed but also a hypothesis that they are completely originated from the selected AGN. But, the addition of appropriate amount of isotropic component either through the background contribution or through the large smearing effect improves the correlation greatly and makes the AGN hypothesis for UHECR sources a viable one. We also point out that restricting AGN within the distance bin of 40–60 Mpc happens to yield a good correlation without appreciable isotropic component and large smearing effect. For the AGASA data, we don't find any significant correlation with AGN.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2011

The path integral for the statistical sum of the microcanonical ensemble in cosmology

The path integral is calculated for the statistical sum of the microcanonical ensemble in a generic time-parametrization invariant gravitational model with the Friedman-Robertson-Walker (FRW) metric. This represents the first example of a systematic calculation of the Faddeev-Popov gauge-fixed path integral in the minisuperspace sector of quantum cosmology. The gauge fixing procedure, together with gauging out local diffeomorphisms, also handles the residual symmetries associated with the conformal Killing vector of the FRW metric and incorporates the Batalin-Vilkovisky quantization technique for gauge theories with linearly dependent generators. For a subset of saddle-point instantons, characterized by a single oscillation of the FRW scale factor, this technique is designed to obtain the one-loop statistical sum in the recently suggested model of cosmological initial conditions generated by a conformal field theory with a large number of quantum species.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

The different varieties of the Suyama-Yamaguchi consistency relation and its violation as a signal of statistical inhomogeneity

We present the different consistency relations that can be seen as variations of the well known Suyama-Yamaguchi (SY) consistency relation τ{sub NL}≥((6/5)f{sub NL}){sup 2}, the latter involving the levels of non-gaussianity f{sub NL} and τ{sub NL} in the primordial curvature perturbation ζ. It has been (implicitly) claimed that the following variation: τ{sub NL}(k{sub 1},k{sub 3})≥((6/5)){sup 2}f{sub NL}(k{sub 1})f{sub NL}(k{sub 3}), which we call ''the fourth variety'', in the collapsed (for τ{sub NL}) and squeezed (for f{sub NL}) limits is always satisfied independently of any physics; however, the proof depends sensitively on the assumption of scale-invariance (expressing this way the fourth variety of the SY consistency relation as τ{sub NL}≥((6/5)f{sub NL}){sup 2}) which only applies for cosmological models involving Lorentz-invariant scalar fields (at least at tree level), leaving room for a strong violation of this variety of the consistency relation when non-trivial degrees of freedom, for instance vector fields, are in charge of the generation of the primordial curvature perturbation. With this in mind as a motivation, we explicitly state, in the first part of this work, under which conditions the SY consistency relation has been claimed to hold in its different varieties (implicitly) presented in the literature since its inception back in 2008; as a result, we show for the first time that the variety τ{sub NL}(k{sub 1},k{sub 1})≥((6/5)f{sub NL}(k{sub 1})){sup 2}, which we call ''the fifth variety'', is always satisfied even when there is strong scale-dependence and high levels of statistical anisotropy as long as statistical homogeneity holds: thus, an observed violation of this specific variety would prevent the comparison between theory and observation, shaking this way the foundations of cosmology as a science. In the second part, we concern about the existence of non-trivial degrees of freedom, concretely vector fields for which the levels of non-gaussianity have been calculated for very few models; among them, and by making use of the δN formalism at tree level, we study a class of models that includes the vector curvaton scenario, vector inflation, and the hybrid inflation with coupled vector and scalar ''waterfall field'' where ζ is generated at the end of inflation, finding that the fourth variety of the SY consistency relation is indeed strongly violated for some specific wavevector configurations while the fifth variety continues to be well satisfied. Finally, as a byproduct of our investigation, we draw attention to a quite recently demonstrated variety of the SY consistency relation: τ{sup iso}{sub NL}≥((6/5)f{sup iso}{sub NL}){sup 2}, in scenarios where scalar and vector fields contribute to the generation of the primordial curvature perturbation; this variety of the SY consistency relation is satisfied although the isotropic pieces of the non-gaussianity parameters receive contributions from the vector fields. We discuss further implications for observational cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

The statistically anisotropic curvature perturbation generated by f{sup 2}(φ)F{sub μν}F{sup μν}

The inflaton might be coupled to a gauge field through a term f{sup 2}(φ)F{sub μν}F{sup μν}. If f∝a{sup −2} where a(t) is the scale factor, the perturbation δW of the gauge field generates a potentially observable statistically anisotropic contribution to the primordial curvature perturbation during slow-roll inflation. The spectrum and bispectrum of this contribution have been calculated using the in-in formalism of quantum field theory. We give a simpler and more complete calculation using only the classical perturbations. The results suggest that either the entire curvature perturbation ζ (both the statistically isotropic and anisotropic parts) is generated during slow-roll inflation, or else it is generated afterwards.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

CMB statistical anisotropy from noncommutative gravitational waves

Primordial statistical anisotropy is a key indicator to investigate early Universe models and has been probed by the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies. In this paper, we examine tensor-mode CMB fluctuations generated from anisotropic gravitational waves, parametrised by P{sub h}(k) = P{sub h}{sup (0)}(k) [ 1 + ∑{sub LM} f{sub L}(k) g{sub LM} Y{sub LM} ( k-circumflex )], where P{sub h}{sup (0)}(k) is the usual scale-invariant power spectrum. Such anisotropic tensor fluctuations may arise from an inflationary model with noncommutativity of fields. It is verified that in this model, an isotropic component and a quadrupole asymmetry with f{sub 0}(k) = f{sub 2}(k) ∝ k{sup -2} are created and hence highly red-tilted off-diagonal components arise in the CMB power spectra, namely ℓ{sub 2} = ℓ{sub 1} ± 2 in TT, TE, EE and BB, and ℓ{sub 2} = ℓ{sub 1} ± 1 in TB and EB. We find that B-mode polarisation is more sensitive to such signals than temperature and E-mode polarisation due to the smallness of large-scale cosmic variance and we can potentially measure g{sub 00} = 30 and g{sub 2M} = 58 at 68% CL in a cosmic-variance-limited experiment. Such a level of signal may be measured in a PRISM like experiment, while the instrumental noise contaminates it in the Planck experiment. These results imply that it is impossible to measure the noncommutative parameter if it is small enough for the perturbative treatment to be valid. Our formalism and methodology for dealing with the CMB tensor statistical anisotropy are general and straightforwardly applicable to other early Universe models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

CMB statistical anisotropies of classical and quantum origins

We examine the impact of different anisotropic relics on inflation, in particular the predictions on the density perturbations. These relics can be the source of the large scale anomalies in the cosmic microwave background. There are two different types of background relics, one from the matter sector and the other purely from the metric. Although the angular-dependence of the statistical anisotropy in both cases are degenerate, the scale-dependence are observationally distinctive. In addition, we demonstrate that non-Bunch-Davies vacuum states can extend the statistical anisotropy to much shorter scales, and leave a scale-dependence that is insensitive to the different backgrounds but sensitive to the initial quantum state.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Origin of structure: statistical characterization of the primordial density fluctuations and the collapse of the wave function

The statistical properties of the primordial density perturbations has been considered in the past decade as a powerful probe of the physical processes taking place in the early universe. Within the inflationary paradigm, the properties of the bispectrum are one of the keys that serves to discriminate among competing scenarios concerning the details of the origin of cosmological perturbations. However, all of the scenarios, based on the conventional approach to the so-called ''quantum-to-classical transition'' during inflation, lack the ability to point out the precise physical mechanism responsible for generating the inhomogeneity and anisotropy of our universe starting from and exactly homogeneous and isotropic vacuum state associated with the early inflationary regime. In past works, we have shown that the proposals involving a spontaneous dynamical reduction of the quantum state provide plausible explanations for the birth of said primordial inhomogeneities and anisotropies. In the present manuscript we show that, when considering within the context of such proposals, the characterization of the spectrum and bispectrum turn out to be quite different from those found in the traditional approach, and in particular, some of the statistical features, must be treated in a different way leading to some rather different conclusions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Parity-violating CMB correlators with non-decaying statistical anisotropy

We examine the effect induced on cosmological correlators by the simultaneous breaking of parity and of statistical isotropy. As an example of this, we compute the scalar-scalar, scalar-tensor, tensor-tensor and scalar-scalar-scalar cosmological correlators in presence of the coupling L = f(φ) ( − 1/4 F{sup 2} + γ/4 F ∼F ) between the inflaton φ and a vector field with vacuum expectation value A. For a suitably chosen function f, the energy in the vector field ρ{sub A} does not decay during inflation. This results in nearly scale-invariant signatures of broken statistical isotropy and parity. Specifically, we find that the scalar-scalar correlator of primordial curvature perturbations includes a quadrupolar anisotropy, P{sub ζ}(k) = P(k)[1+g{sub *}( k-circumflex ⋅Â){sup 2}], and a (angle-averaged) scalar bispectrum that is a linear combination of the first 3 Legendre polynomials, B{sub ζ}(k{sub 1}, k{sub 2}, k{sub 3}) = ∑{sub L} c{sub L} P{sub L} ( k-circumflex {sub 1} ⋅ k-circumflex {sub 2}) P(k{sub 1}) P(k{sub 2}) + 2 perms , with c{sub 0}:c{sub 1}:c{sub 2}=2-3:1 (c{sub 1}≠0 is a consequence of parity violation, corresponding to the constant 0γ ≠ ). The latter is one of the main results of this paper, which provides for the first time a clear example of an inflationary model where a non-negligible c{sub 1} contribution to the bispectrum is generated. The scalar-tensor and tensor-tensor correlators induce characteristic signatures in the Cosmic Microwave Background temperature anisotropies (T) and polarization (E/B modes); namely, non-diagonal contributions to (a{sub ℓ1m1}a{sup *}{sub ℓ2m2}), with |ℓ{sub 1} − ℓ{sub 2}| = 1 in TT, TE, EE and BB, and |ℓ{sub 1} − ℓ{sub 2}| = 2 in TB and EB. The latest CMB bounds on the scalar observables (g{sub *}, c{sub 0}, c{sub 1} and c{sub 2}), translate into the upper limit ρ{sub A} / ρ{sub φ} ∼< 10{sup −9} at 0γ=. We find that the upper limit on the vector energy density becomes much more stringent as γ grows.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Effective field theory of statistical anisotropies for primordial bispectrum and gravitational waves

We present the effective field theory studies of primordial statistical anisotropies in models of anisotropic inflation. The general action in unitary gauge is presented to calculate the leading interactions between the gauge field fluctuations, the curvature perturbations and the tensor perturbations. The anisotropies in scalar power spectrum and bispectrum are calculated and the dependence of these anisotropies to EFT couplings are presented. In addition, we calculate the statistical anisotropy in tensor power spectrum and the scalar-tensor cross correlation. Our EFT approach incorporates anisotropies generated in models with non-trivial speed for the gauge field fluctuations and sound speed for scalar perturbations such as in DBI inflation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

DESI 2024: reconstructing dark energy using crossing statistics with DESI DR1 BAO data

Here, we implement Crossing Statistics to reconstruct in a model-agnostic manner the expansion history of the universe and properties of dark energy, using DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) BAO data in combination with one of three different supernova compilations (PantheonPlus, Union3, and DES-SN5YR) and Planck CMB observations. Our results hint towards an evolving and emergent dark energy behaviour, with negligible presence of dark energy at z ≳ 1, at varying significance depending on data sets combined. In all these reconstructions, the cosmological constant lies outside the 95% confidence intervals for some redshift ranges. This dark energy behaviour, reconstructed using Crossing Statistics, is in agreement with results from the conventional w 0 –w a dark energy equation of state parametrization reported in the DESI Key cosmology paper. Our results add an extensive class of model-agnostic reconstructions with acceptable fits to the data, including models where cosmic acceleration slows down at low redshifts. We also report constraints on H 0 r d from our model-agnostic analysis, independent of the pre-recombination physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

thornado-transport: IMEX schemes for two-moment neutrino transport respecting Fermi-Dirac statistics

We develop implicit-explicit (IMEX) schemes for neutrino transport in a background material in the context of a two-moment model that evolves the angular moments of a neutrino phase-space distribution function. Considering the upper and lower bounds that are introduced by Pauli's exclusion principle on the moments, an algebraic moment closure based on Fermi-Dirac statistics and a convex-invariant time integrator both are demanded. A finite-volume/first-order discontinuous Galerkin(DG) method is used to illustrate how an algebraic moment closure based on Fermi-Dirac statistics is needed to satisfy the bounds. Several algebraic closures are compared with these bounds in mind, and the Cernohorsky and Bludman closure, which satisfies the bounds, is chosen for our IMEX schemes. For the convex-invariant time integrator, two IMEX schemes named PD-ARS have been proposed. PD-ARS denotes a convex-invariant IMEX Runge-Kutta scheme that is high-order accurate in the streaming limit, and works well in the diffusion limit. Our two PD-ARS schemes use second-and third-order, explicit, strong-stability-preserving Runge-Kutta methods as their explicit part, respectively, and therefore are second-and third-order accurate in the streaming limit, respectively. The accuracy and convex-invariance of our PD-ARS schemes are demonstrated in the numerical tests with a third-order DG method for spatial discretization and a simple Lax-Friedrichs flux. The method has been implemented in our high-order neutrino-radiation hydrodynamics (thornado) toolkit. We show preliminary results employing tabulated neutrino opacities.

Chu, Ran↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving seasonal precipitation forecasts in the Western United States through statistical downscaling

Abstract Seasonal precipitation forecasts in the western United States are critical resources for water resource management, especially during winter. While current seasonal forecasting systems provide monthly precipitation forecasts operationally, their coarse resolution limits their effectiveness in capturing the localized precipitation patterns and snowpack conditions essential for water resource managers in the mountainous regions. Here, analog statistical downscaling is demonstrated as an effective approach to enhance the spatial resolution of operational seasonal forecasts provided by the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. Downscaling was performed by building an analog ‘library’, in which corresponding model forecasts and observed values during the training period were stored. In the testing period, unseen model forecasts referenced the closest historical forecast from the analog library and applied the corresponding observational value for each point. This analysis indicates that downscaled products can capture localized features more accurately than the original coarse resolution forecasts, reducing forecast error across the western United States. Moreover, downscaling individual ensemble members—rather than downscaling the ensemble mean—further reduces forecasting error for their multi-model ensemble mean products. The greatest error reductions in the downscaled product, measured by root mean squared error (RMSE), were observed at low to mid-elevations (500–2000 meters), with 50%–70% improvement relative to the original forecasts. In the higher elevations (2000 meters and above), changes in RMSE relative to the original forecast were limited to 10%–30% improvements. The improvement is more substantial for forecast systems with 10 ensemble members compared to that with 4 members, but this relationship does not hold for the system with 24 ensemble members. These findings show that analog statistical downscaling can effectively address the spatial limitations of seasonal precipitation forecasts with minimal computational cost, providing a valuable framework for enhancing coarse resolution forecasting products while providing insights into the timing of ensemble mean calculations during the downscaling process.

Vernon, B. (ORCID:0009000891670689)↗