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At least 919 records · Page 51

Study of the Mass-loss Rate from the Sun

We investigate the temporal evolution of the yearly total mass-loss rate (YTMLR) from the Sun through coronal mass ejections (CMEs) over solar cycles 23 and 24. The mass determination of CMEs can be subject to significant uncertainty. To minimize this problem, we have used extensive statistical analysis. For this purpose, we employed data included in the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW) catalog. We estimated the contributions to mass loss from the Sun from different subsamples of CMEs (selected on the basis of their masses, angular widths, and position angles). The temporal variations of the YTMLR were compared to those of the sunspot number (SSN), X-ray flare flux, and the Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) index. We show that the CME mass included in the CDAW catalog reflects with high accuracy the actual mass-loss rate from the Sun through CMEs. Additionally, it is shown that the CME mass distribution in the log-lin representation reflects the Gaussian distribution very well. This means that the CMEs included in the CDAW catalog form one coherent population of ejections that have been correctly identified. Unlike the CME occurrence rate, it turns out that the YTMLR is a very good indicator of solar activity (e.g., SSN) and space weather (e.g., Dst index) consequences. These results are very important, since the YTMLR, unlike the mass loss through solar wind, significantly depends on solar cycles.

the sun↗

Ground increase of cosmic ray intensity on February 16, 1984

The event of February 16, 1984 is one of the two largest ground increases of solar cosmic rays (CR) in the last two cycles of solar activity. This event happended at a decrease of the 21-st cycle against a quiet background. Although at the beginning of 1984 the observed indices of solar activity were higher than those at the end of 1983, the day of February 16 16 may be characterized as very quiet. On that day the geomagnetic perturbance (Sigma F sub p = 14, A sub p = 7) was the lowest in February. After a small Forbush decrease due to the magnetic storm of February 12-13, the CR intensity almost completely recovered by February 16. Thus, the solar particles that came to the Earth on February 16 got into a practically unperturbed magnetosphere, and the variations of secondary CR induced by these particles were not superimposed on any other substantial variations of extraterrestrial or magnetospheric origin.

Belov, A. V.↗

Solar prediction analysis

Solar Activity prediction is essential to definition of orbital design and operational environments for space flight. This task provides the necessary research to better understand solar predictions being generated by the solar community and to develop improved solar prediction models. The contractor shall provide the necessary manpower and facilities to perform the following tasks: (1) review, evaluate, and assess the time evolution of the solar cycle to provide probable limits of solar cycle behavior near maximum end during the decline of solar cycle 22, and the forecasts being provided by the solar community and the techniques being used to generate these forecasts; and (2) develop and refine prediction techniques for short-term solar behavior flare prediction within solar active regions, with special emphasis on the correlation of magnetic shear with flare occurrence.

Smith, Jesse B.↗

Measurements of Space Radiation On, and On the Way To, Mars - Paper 123

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) spacecraft, with the Curiosity rover inside, was launched to Mars on November 25, 2011, and landed successfully on August 6, 2012. Curiosity's science payload includes ten science instruments, one of which is the Radiation Assessment Detector, RAD. The radiation environment in deep space is harsh, and is a limiting factor in planning future human missions. RAD's measurements of the radiation environments on Mars, and on a spacecraft during transit to Mars, are important precursors to a crewed mission. RAD is a compact instrument with a mass of just 1.56 kg. Despite its small size, RAD is capable of measuring the charged and neutral particles that make up the complex environments created by Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) as they traverse shielding materials. The space radiation environment consists of a continuous flux of GCRs, the intensity of which is modulated by solar activity. At or near times of solar maximum, the interplanetary magnetic field is relatively strong, and lower-energy GCRs are screened. At solar minimum, the field weakens with a corresponding increase in GCR fluxes. SEP events are sporadic, and are more likely to occur near solar maximum. Both GCRs and SEPs present potential health risks to astronauts, but the risks are of different types. The dose rate from GCRs is modest and cannot cause acute health effects. However serious late effects may arise; of particular concern are the largely unknown health effects of exposure to high-energy GCR heavy ions. There is no terrestrial analog for this exposure and this leads to large uncertainties in health risk estimates. In contrast, SEP events can be extremely intense and could potentially cause acute health effects, but they are also dominated by protons with energies below 100 MeV, which means that shielding is a practical and effective option. (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The mechanism of temperature and pressure changes in the Earth's atmosphere during solar flares

The effect of solar flares on the weather on Earth is examined. It is concluded that the processes which arise in the atmosphere are so intricate that a single calculation of solar activity is insufficient for long-range forecasting. However, combined consideration of processes dependent upon the dynamic instability of the atmosphere and the effect of solar activity will contribute to the improvement of long-range forecasts.

Reshetov, V. D.↗

Sun Series program for the REEDA System

Modifications made to data bases and to four programs in a series of computer programs (Sun Series) which run on the REEDA HP minicomputer system to aid NASA's solar activity predictions used in orbital life time predictions are described. These programs utilize various mathematical smoothing technique and perform statistical and graphical analysis of various solar activity data bases residing on the REEDA System.

Shankle, R. W.↗

The modulation features of the long-period cosmic ray variations in connection with the sign change of the general magnetic field of the Sun

On the basis of the model and experimental investigations, the spatial distribution of cosmic ray anisotropy for the different epochs of solar activity is studied. A solution is offered to the anisotropic diffusion equation with regard to the electromagnetic conditions for the periods of minimum and maximum solar activity and cosmic ray particle drift in a regular interplanetary magnetic field. It is shown that the long period changes amplitude and phase of the diurnal variations of cosmic rays is limited not only by convection and diffusion of particles but also by the drift effect before and after the sing change of the general magnetic field of the Sun. The calculated model is compared with the results obtained on the basis of an analysis of the experimental data from the neutron super monitor station, and it is shown that for the periods when the lines of magnetic force of the Sun come from the Northern Hemisphere the phase of the first harmonic diurnal variation is shifted forwards to an earlier time.

Iskra, K.↗

Further study of the theta component of the interplanetary magnetic field.

Measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field taken with Imp 3, Pioneer 6, and Explorer 34 constitute a large portion of the data available at low and moderate solar activity and provide nearly continuous coverage from mid-1965 through 1966 without radial effects. Study of these observations provides further evidence for the following B sub theta effect initially discovered with Mariners 2, 4, and 5. At low or moderate solar activity, the mean value of B sub theta is negative (approximately northward in the observations) above the solar equatorial plane and positive below it for an interplanetary field directed outward from the sun, and vice versa for an inward field. Thus, for an outward field, the r-theta component of a line of magnetic force above or below the equatorial plane was skewed relative to the average value of r in the direction away from the equatorial plane. Comparisons between different spacecraft are discussed.

Rosenberg, R. L.↗

On the relationship between secular brightness changes of Titan and solar variability

Titan's geometric albedo varied noticeably from 1972 to 1978, in phase with variations in solar activity (Lockwood and Thompson, 1979). A series of radiative transfer and aerosol formation calculations were made to demonstrate the feasibility of the following scenario for these secular brightness changes. Solar activity changes, especially in the UV output of the sun, result in alterations to the mass production rate of aerosols in Titan's atmosphere, which lead to modifications of their microphysical properties. The latter, in turn, cause the albedo to vary. Current estimates of the change in the solar UV radiation below the dissociation limit of methane imply alterations to the mean radius of the aerosols over an 11-yr solar cycle that are consistent in sign and magnitude with those required to explain the observed secular brightness changes.

Pollack, J. B.↗

Long-term variations of the solar wind proton parameters

Interplanetary plasma data taken near 1 AU by a variety of spacecraft (Imp 1, Vela 2-4, Explorer 33-35, and Heos 1) from 1963 to 1971 are used to study the long-term variations of the solar wind proton properties. An intercalibration among the different experiments is performed in order to obtain a coherent set of data. The most interesting result is a 40% reduction of the proton density between the minimum and the maximum of the solar activity cycle. The observed density variation occurs throughout the velocity range; however, a limited sample of data could suggest that at very low velocities (below 300 km/sec) the density is independent of the solar activity. The proton bulk velocity is remarkably constant during the period considered; small increases of the average speed occurring in 1968 and 1971 cannot be attributed to the solar cycle. No clear trend is exhibited by the proton temperature; differences among the various experiments probably have an instrumental origin.

Diodato, L.↗

Deciphering solar magnetic activity. I. On the relationship between the sunspot cycle and the evolution of small magnetic features

Sunspots are a canonical marker of the Sun's internal magnetic field which flips polarity every ∼22 yr. The principal variation of sunspots, an ∼11 yr variation, modulates the amount of the magnetic field that pierces the solar surface and drives significant variations in our star's radiative, particulate, and eruptive output over that period. This paper presents observations from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and Solar Dynamics Observatory indicating that the 11 yr sunspot variation is intrinsically tied to the spatio-temporal overlap of the activity bands belonging to the 22 yr magnetic activity cycle. Using a systematic analysis of ubiquitous coronal brightpoints and the magnetic scale on which they appear to form, we show that the landmarks of sunspot cycle 23 can be explained by considering the evolution and interaction of the overlapping activity bands of the longer-scale variability.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity. I. On the Relationship Between the Sunspot Cycle and the Evolution of Small Magnetic Features

Sunspots are a canonical marker of the Sun's internal magnetic field which flips polarity every ~22 yr. The principal variation of sunspots, an ~11 yr variation, modulates the amount of the magnetic field that pierces the solar surface and drives significant variations in our star's radiative, particulate, and eruptive output over that period. This paper presents observations from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and Solar Dynamics Observatory indicating that the 11 yr sunspot variation is intrinsically tied to the spatio-temporal overlap of the activity bands belonging to the 22 yr magnetic activity cycle. Using a systematic analysis of ubiquitous coronal brightpoints and the magnetic scale on which they appear to form, we show that the landmarks of sunspot cycle 23 can be explained by considering the evolution and interaction of the overlapping activity bands of the longer-scale variability.

Sun: interior↗

Analysis of a possible sun-weather correlation

In an attempt to verify the relationship between solar activity and precipitation posited by Xanthakis (1973), annual precipitation records from 2,548 stations in both hemispheres from the period 1850 to 1973 were examined. The strong negative correlation between solar activity and rainfall in the 60 to 70 deg N latitude belt found by Xanthakis appeared much less distinct in the present study. In addition, a spectral analysis indicated no significant spectral peaks having periods between 6 and 20 years, a finding which cast further doubt on the solar cycle-precipitation correlation.

Gerety, E. J.↗

Solar effects associated with the cosmic ray modulation spectrum

Various indicators of solar activity are examined with reference to the changes observed in the rigidity dependence of cosmic ray modulation between 1969 and 1972. The heliolatitude dependence and the N-S asymmetry of solar activity, as deduced from the distribution of sunspots and sunspot groups, appeared to be related to cosmic ray variations during earlier epochs. The failure of such a relationship to continue during the recovery of cosmic ray intensity is discussed. The heliolatitude dependence of the solar wind velocity, as deduced from IPS observations is also discussed in terms of cosmic ray events and of the long term modulation of cosmic ray intensity.

Mendell, R. B.↗

ANALYSIS OF CORONAL GREEN LINE PROFILES: EVIDENCE OF EXCESS BLUESHIFTS

Coronal green line (Fe XIV 5303 A) profiles were obtained from Fabry-Perot interferometric observations of the solar corona during the total solar eclipse of 2001 June 21 from Lusaka, Zambia. The instrumental width is about 0.2 A and the spectral resolution is about 26,000. About 300 line profiles were obtained within a radial range of 1.0-1.5 R{sub sun} and a position angle coverage of about 240{sup 0}. The line profiles were fitted with single Gaussians, and their intensities, Doppler velocities, and line widths were obtained. Also obtained were the centroids of the line profiles, which give a measure of line asymmetry. The histograms of Doppler velocity show excess blueshifts, while the centroids reveal a predominant blue wing in the line profiles. It was found that the centroids and the Doppler velocities are highly correlated. This points to the presence of multiple components in the line profiles, with an excess of blueshifted components. We then obtained the (Blue-Red) wing intensities, which clearly reveal the secondary components, the majority of which are blueshifted. This confirms that the coronal green line profiles often contain multicomponents with excess blueshifts, which also depend on the solar activity. The magnitude of the Doppler velocity of the secondary components is in the range of 20-40 km s{sup -1} and shows an increase toward the poles. Possible explanations of the multicomponents are the type II spicules that were recently found to be important to coronal heating or the nascent solar wind flow, but the cause of the blue asymmetry in the coronal lines above the limb remains unclear.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Testing the Accuracy of Data-driven MHD Simulations of Active Region Evolution

Models for the evolution of the solar coronal magnetic field are vital for understanding solar activity, yet the best measurements of the magnetic field lie at the photosphere, necessitating the development of coronal models which are “data-driven” at the photosphere. We present an investigation to determine the feasibility and accuracy of such methods. Our validation framework uses a simulation of active region (AR) formation, modeling the emergence of magnetic flux from the convection zone to the corona, as a ground-truth data set, to supply both the photospheric information and to perform the validation of the data-driven method. We focus our investigation on how the accuracy of the data-driven model depends on the temporal frequency of the driving data. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory produces full-disk vector magnetic field measurements at a 12-minute cadence. Using our framework we show that ARs that emerge over 25 hr can be modeled by the data-driving method with only ∼1% error in the free magnetic energy, assuming the photospheric information is specified every 12 minutes. However, for rapidly evolving features, under-sampling of the dynamics at this cadence leads to a strobe effect, generating large electric currents and incorrect coronal morphology and energies. We derive a sampling condition for the driving cadence based on the evolution of these small-scale features, and show that higher-cadence driving can lead to acceptable errors. Future work will investigate the source of errors associated with deriving plasma variables from the photospheric magnetograms as well as other sources of errors, such as reduced resolution, instrument bias, and noise.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Ionization frequencies for major thermospheric constituents as a function of solar cycle 21

Increases in the solar ultraviolet flux (wavelengths shorter than 1250A) over the past five years of rising solar activity have been larger than anticipated. This increase in UV flux dramatically affects the production of ionization of the various constituents in the thermosphere. Measurements of the solar UV flux by the Atmosphere Explorer satellites are used to determine ionization frequencies for the major thermospheric species for various dates exhibiting notably different levels of solar activity. For the convenience of users of such data, a reduced set of cross-section and flux data is presented for the wavelength range below 1027A, consisting of 37 wavelength intervals

Torr, M. R.↗