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At least 919 records · Page 51

Influence Diagram Use With Respect to Technology Planning and Investment

Influence diagrams are relatively simple, but powerful, tools for assessing the impact of choices or resource allocations on goals or requirements. They are very general and can be used on a wide range of problems. They can be used for any problem that has defined goals, a set of factors that influence the goals or the other factors, and a set of inputs. Influence diagrams show the relationship among a set of results and the attributes that influence them and the inputs that influence the attributes. If the results are goals or requirements of a program, then the influence diagram can be used to examine how the requirements are affected by changes to technology investment. This paper uses an example to show how to construct and interpret influence diagrams, how to assign weights to the inputs and attributes, how to assign weights to the transfer functions (influences), and how to calculate the resulting influences of the inputs on the results. A study is also presented as an example of how using influence diagrams can help in technology planning and investment. The Space Propulsion Synergy Team (SPST) used this technique to examine the impact of R&D spending on the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of a space transportation system. The question addressed was the effect on the recurring and the non-recurring portions of LCC of the proportion of R&D resources spent to impact technology objectives versus the proportion spent to impact operational dependability objectives. The goals, attributes, and the inputs were established. All of the linkages (influences) were determined. The weighting of each of the attributes and each of the linkages was determined. Finally the inputs were varied and the impacts on the LCC determined and are presented. The paper discusses how each of these was accomplished both for credibility and as an example for future studies using influence diagrams for technology planning and investment planning.

Levack, Daniel J. H.↗

Investigation of Rotor Performance and Loads of a UH-60A Individual Blade Control System

A full-scale wind tunnel test was recently conducted (March 2009) in the National Full-Scale Aerodynamics Complex (NFAC) 40- by 80-FootWind Tunnel to evaluate the potential of an individual blade control (IBC) system to improve rotor performance and reduce vibrations, loads, and noise for a UH-60A rotor system [1]. This test was the culmination of a long-termcollaborative effort between NASA, U.S. Army, Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation, and ZF Luftfahrttechnik GmbH (ZFL) to demonstrate the benefits of IBC for a UH-60Arotor. Figure 1 shows the UH-60Arotor and IBC system mounted on the NFAC Large Rotor Test Apparatus (LRTA). The IBC concept used in the current study utilizes actuators placed in the rotating frame, one per blade. In particular, the pitch link of the rotor blade was replacedwith an actuator, so that the blade root pitch can be changed independently. This concept, designed for a full-scale UH-60A rotor, was previously tested in the NFAC 80- by 120-FootWind Tunnel in September 2001 at speeds up to 85 knots [2]. For the current test, the same UH-60A rotor and IBC system were tested in the 40- by 80-FootWind Tunnel at speeds up to 170 knots. Figure 2 shows the servo-hydraulic IBC actuator installed between the swashplate and the blade pitch horn. Although previous wind tunnel experiments [3, 4] and analytical studies on IBC [5, 6] have shown the promise to improve the rotor s performance, in-depth correlation studies have not been performed. Thus, the current test provides a unique resource that can be used to assess the accuracy and reliability of prediction methods and refine theoretical models, with the ultimate goal of providing the technology for timely and cost-effective design and development of new rotors. In this paper, rotor performance and loads calculations are carried out using the analyses CAMRAD II and coupled OVERFLOW-2/CAMRAD II and the results are compared with these UH-60A/IBC wind tunnel test data.

Yeo, Hyeonsoo↗

Earth Observations for Global Water Security

The combined effects of population growth, increasing demands for water to support agriculture, energy security, and industrial expansion, and the challenges of climate change give rise to an urgent need to carefully monitor and assess trends and variations in water resources. Doing so will ensure that sustainable access to adequate quantities of safe and useable water will serve as a foundation for water security. Both satellite and in situ observations combined with data assimilation and models are needed for effective, integrated monitoring of the water cycle's trends and variability in terms of both quantity and quality. On the basis of a review of existing observational systems, we argue that a new integrated monitoring capability for water security purposes is urgently needed. Furthermore, the components for this capability exist and could be integrated through the cooperation of national observational programmes. The Group on Earth Observations should play a central role in the design, implementation, management and analysis of this system and its products.

Earth↗

Historical Mass, Power, Schedule, and Cost Growth for NASA Spacecraft

Although spacecraft developers have been moving towards standardized product lines as the aerospace industry has matured, NASA's continual need to push the cutting edge of science to accomplish unique, challenging missions can still lead to spacecraft resource growth over time. This paper assesses historical mass, power, cost, and schedule growth for multiple NASA spacecraft from the last twenty years and compares to industry reserve guidelines to understand where the guidelines may fall short. Growth is assessed from project start to launch, from the time of the preliminary design review (PDR) to launch and from the time of the critical design review (CDR) to launch. Data is also assessed not just at the spacecraft bus level, but also at the subsystem level wherever possible, to help obtain further insight into possible drivers of growth. Potential recommendations to minimize spacecraft mass, power, cost, and schedule growth for future missions are also discussed.

Schedule↗

Marangoni effect and its potential utilization in supporting lunar habitats and other extraterrestrial endeavors

Tears of wine is a phenomenon frequently observed as a ring of wine formed near the top of the glass generates droplets that fall back into the wine. This phenomenon can be explained by the Marangoni effect driven by the surface tension created via gradient on concentration and temperature along with the interface between two phases. Besides being observed while drinking wine, the Marangoni effect is crucial for welding metals, manufacturing integrated circuits, and growing crystals; the Marangoni effect might be also crucial in supporting lunar habitats and other extraterrestrial endeavors as vacuum and reduced gravity are expected to augment the Marangoni effect on extraterrestrial molten soil leading to sustainable extraterrestrial in-situ resources utilization (ISRU). Preliminary Marangoni effect assessment on molten lunar regolith was conducted via JSC-1A lunar regolith simulant under vacuum yielding a spontaneous upwards migration of a uniform molten thin-film front that climbed the crucible wall covering the entire wall’s surface and reaching the crucible’s top end. A temperature gradient within the melt’s bulk and along the crucible’s wall generates a surface tension large enough not only to form a meniscus within the three-phase junction (crucible’s wall, bulk melt, and vacuum) but also to supersede the gravitational force to create the upwards migration of a thin film front originated on the meniscus. The observed extensive wettability of the melt with the crucible surface, an additional key factor besides surface tension necessary to sustain upwards migration, is atypical to what it has been witnessed on molten JSC-1A lunar regolith simulant under non-vacuum conditions and smaller sample sizes. The unique formation and self-migration of a thin-film front could enable key ISRU processes such as thin-film coating, crystal growth, and feedstock generation for additive 3D printing. Further assessment on the higher-temperature vacuum-driven decomposition of the uniform thin-film front as it climbed the crucible’s wall revealed a significant decomposition of various simulant’s metal-oxide components into their respective oxygen and metal elements strengthening the feasibility of extraterrestrial generation and fractional separation of oxygen and metals/alloys with none or minimal need for terrestrial precursors. The Marangoni effect assessment on molten JSC-1A lunar regolith simulant clearly opens novel pathways in future extraterrestrial ISRU endeavors including manufacturing and mining. Extraterrestrial mining will require an operational approach completely different from the terrestrial one that heavily relies on not only mechanical excavation and transportation but also post-processing; an in-situ all-in-one process might be feasible via these two coupled phenomena, self-migration and decomposition.

J A Dominguez↗

Towards Real-time Global Assessment of Post-fire Debris Flow Hazard

As the risk of wildfires increases worldwide, burned steeplands are vulnerable to the secondary hazard of widespread sediment mobilization through debris flows. Following an initial burn, sediment and soil previously restrained by vegetation are no longer consolidated, allowing for easy mobilization into channels and along steep hillslopes through runoff. Sufficiently powerful rainfall incorporates entrained material into turbulent flows and serves as the primary trigger for debris flow initiation. There is thus an ongoing need to establish the relationship between rainfall and debris flow initiation based on a variety of spatiotemporal preconditions. Previous work establishes regional and local thresholds to constrain the effect of rainfall in recently burned areas, but no empirical or numerical solution has worldwide application. Building from regionally-based efforts in the U.S., this work considers how remote sensing data can be applied to better approximate the post-fire debris flow hazards worldwide using freely available global datasets and software. Our work assesses the utility of remote sensing resources for analyzing burn characteristics, topography, rainfall intensity/duration, and, thus, debris flow initiation. Early results show that global observations are sufficient to delineate background rainfall rates from storms likely to cause debris flows across a variety of burn severity and topographic conditions. However, the dearth of publicly-available post-fire debris flow inventories globally limit the ability to test how the model framework performs within different climatologic and morphologic areas. This work will present preliminary analysis over the Western United States and demonstrate the feasibility of a global, near-real time model to provide situational awareness of potential hazards within recently burned areas worldwide. Future work will also consider how global or regional precipitation forecasts may increase the lead time for improved early warning of these hazards.

Elijah Orland↗

IMPACTing Medical System Design with a Risk Analysis Tool [“IMPACT” sur la Conception du Système Médical avec un Outil d'Analyse des Risques]

Background: Following the success of Artemis I, NASA is preparing for human extended duration missions. Ongoing efforts are focused on mitigating mission-related risks, including those affecting crew health and performance. Communication latency, logistics of resupply and time frame of medical evacuation are barriers to provision of healthcare for these missions, especially with respect to constraints in mass, volume, and crew training. An in-depth assessment of medical risks, capabilities and resources for a specific mission design is necessary to determine an optimal balance that maximizes likelihood of mission success. Overview: IMPACT (Informed Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a dynamic tool designed to estimate medical risk and outcomes for a specific mission design. In its current iteration, a list of medical conditions selected based on likelihood of occurrence and/or consequence was linked to a set of clinical capabilities and resources necessary for diagnosis and management. A probabilistic risk analysis tool was then used to identify and estimate the likelihood and consequence of risks through the following outcome metrics: loss of crew life (inflight mortality due to medical conditions), need for medical evacuation (return to definitive care), and crew disability (task time affected based on how medical conditions influence the ability to perform specific exploration mission crew tasks). Finally, the model’s optimization algorithm provides recommendations for medical capabilities that maximize risk mitigation relative to mass and volume constraints. In the Spring of 2023, IMPACT was utilized to estimate outcome metrics for a design reference mission that would be representative of an extended duration Artemis mission. Notional data generated were then used to determine a recommended set of medical capabilities and resources relative to user-defined mass and volume constraints. A multidisciplinary team has also been updating IMPACT to strengthen the model’s fidelity. Figure 1 shows how updates to outcome metric inputs for the conditions resulted in different capability and resource allocation recommendations. Discussion: This presentation will discuss the IMPACT tool and share the latest data generated for a representative extended duration Artemis mission. Efforts to improve the fidelity of data generated by the model’s algorithm will also be discussed.

K A Shair↗

IMPACTing Medical System Design with a Risk Analysis Tool

Background: Following the success of Artemis I, NASA is preparing for human extended duration missions. Ongoing efforts are focused on mitigating mission-related risks, including those affecting crew health and performance. Communication latency, logistics of resupply and time frame of medical evacuation are barriers to provision of healthcare for these missions, especially with respect to constraints in mass, volume, and crew training. An in-depth assessment of medical risks, capabilities and resources for a specific mission design is necessary to determine an optimal balance that maximizes likelihood of mission success. Overview: IMPACT (Informed Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a dynamic tool designed to estimate medical risk and outcomes for a specific mission design. In its current iteration, a list of medical conditions selected based on likelihood of occurrence and/or consequence was linked to a set of clinical capabilities and resources necessary for diagnosis and management. A probabilistic risk analysis tool was then used to identify and estimate the likelihood and consequence of risks through the following outcome metrics: loss of crew life (inflight mortality due to medical conditions), need for medical evacuation (return to definitive care), and crew disability (task time affected based on how medical conditions influence the ability to perform specific exploration mission crew tasks). Finally, the model’s optimization algorithm provides recommendations for medical capabilities that maximize risk mitigation relative to mass and volume constraints. In the Spring of 2023, IMPACT was utilized to estimate outcome metrics for a design reference mission that would be representative of an extended duration Artemis mission. Notional data generated were then used to determine a recommended set of medical capabilities and resources relative to user-defined mass and volume constraints. A multidisciplinary team has also been updating IMPACT to strengthen the model’s fidelity. Figure 1 shows how updates to outcome metric inputs for the conditions resulted in different capability and resource allocation recommendations. Discussion: This presentation will discuss the IMPACT tool and share the latest data generated for a representative extended duration Artemis mission. Efforts to improve the fidelity of data generated by the model’s algorithm will also be discussed.

K A Shair↗

DER Cybersecurity R&D

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted more than 30 assessments for utilities across the United States with a cybersecurity assessment tool based on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Cybersecurity Capability Maturity Model (C2M2) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) and focused on business process. With funding from the DOE Office of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Federal Energy Management Program, NREL modified the current cyber governance assessment tool to include an assessment process specifically for distributed energy resources (DERs). The Distributed Energy Resources Cybersecurity Framework (DER-CF) was developed to help federal agencies mitigate gaps in their cybersecurity posture for distributed energy systems.

cybersecurity valuation↗

Characterizing Reactor Operations from Realistic Simulated Environmental Samples: Combining High-Performance Computing and Data Analytics

Environmental sampling is a common technique employed by inspectors and facility operators in nuclear safeguards, proliferation detection, and process monitoring contexts. Interpreting measurements performed on samples or collections of samples and ensuring the information extracted is accurate and precise is difficult. To date, these analyses have relied on simulated data to enable systematic studies; however, these models are inherently limited by the fidelity of the models and the implicit spatial averaging of isotopic composition or other signatures of interest. To advance this capability, we have refined the spatial discretization and expanded the range of physics in the simulation codes we use to perform reactor simulations and depletion calculations. This allows us to generate data that are more representative of real environmental samples, especially for the length scale of the isotopic composition and associated variation. Accordingly, these new data allow a more realistic assessment of traditional and new data analytic analysis methods. Here we present motivation for developing reactor simulations using high-performance computing methods and resources, impacts of these new simulations on our assessment of data analysis and interpretation methods, and initial results of developing and systematically testing data analytic methods designed to overcome the challenges expected of real-world samples. We also quantify the performance of these analyses using defensible statistical methods.

Dayman, Ken J.↗

EverGREEN 2045: An Energy mix to Decarbonize Washington State

The Clean Energy Transformation Act transitions Washington State to 100% clean energy by 2045. As the future resource mix will likely include intermittent renewables, hydropower, and new, carbon-free, flexible technologies including advanced nuclear reactors and enhanced geothermal systems, we assess the cost and feasibility of the future resource mix with proprietary cost data from our industry partners for new technologies. For plausible future resource mix scenarios, we find that revenues are sufficient to cover variable operations and maintenance costs for most technologies, but capacity payments or power purchase agreements will be necessary for new, flexible resources to participate in the future resource mix.

clean energy, energy policy, energy transition, re↗

Evaluating Protection System Performance for a Real-World Weak Grid Area With High Inverter-Based Resources: Preprint

This paper evaluates an existing protection scheme implemented in a real-world weak grid area with a high penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs). The study aims to assess the reliability and adequacy of protection schemes originally designed for traditional synchronous machine systems and determine whether they can continue to operate reliably in systems with high levels of IBRs. Hardware relays are tested using a controller-hardware-in-the-loop setup. PSCAD electromagnetic transient simulation with an IBR original equipment manufacturer black-box model is used to perform fault studies and generate COMTRADE data, which are replayed by a real-time digital simulator (RTDS) to feed input to the hardware relays. Three scenarios are analyzed: normal operation, an N-1 contingency, and an IBR-only scenario. The evaluation results reveal the following: 1) the protection scheme remains reliable under normal conditions and N-1 contingencies and 2) in IBR-only scenarios, differential protection (87L) continues to operate reliably, whereas local protection elements, such as distance and directional elements, fail because of the lack of regulated negative sequence current contributed by IBRs. These findings provide utilities with valuable insights for improving their protection systems in high-IBRs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Energy Master Planning: Identifying Framing Constraints that Scope Your Technology Options

This paper addresses the framing constraints for building and community energy projects that must be considered when energy master planning (EMP) is conducted. The constraints cover emissions, sustainability, resilience, regulations and directives, and regional and local limitations such as available energy types, local conditions, and project requirements. The paper reflects development results from participants in an International Energy Agency project on energy master planning and in a U.S. Department of Defense project on technology integration to achieve resilient, low-energy use military installations. It identifies a comprehensive list of framing constraints categorized into locational threats, locational resources, energy and water distribution and storage systems, building and facility, indoor environmental, and equipment in buildings and district systems constraints. In addition, it identifies limits for these constraints that exist in seven participating countries. Some framing constraints can profoundly impact technology selection while others impact the installation of technologies (as in hardening) and have little to no impact on technology selection. Furthermore, framing constraints can be assessed in different ways and there are resources available to help EMP stakeholders evaluate them. Finally, a case is made that identifying and applying framing constraints early in EMP can bring efficiencies and better focus to the EMP process. We come to the conclusion that (1) for holistic energy planning, it is essential to identify and assess the framing constraints that bound an optimized EMP solution, (2) framing constraints limits should be evaluated as either hard or soft or promising technologies may fall out of an EMP analysis, (3) to maintain consistent quality in the EMP process, the identification of framing constraints and their limits, and perhaps their evaluation, should be standardized, (4) a standardized approach could establish a baseline that can be used, built upon, and improved, (5) as automated EMP tools are improved or developed, the resources in this paper could possibly contribute to their interworkings relative to technology screening, and (6) continued climate change and resulting aggressive goal setting will likely drive a continued and strong emphasis on EMP.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Global Soil Moisture from the Aquarius/SAC-D Satellite: Description and Initial Assessment

Aquarius satellite observations over land offer a new resource for measuring soil moisture from space. Although Aquarius was designed for ocean salinity mapping, our objective in this investigation is to exploit the large amount of land observations that Aquarius acquires and extend the mission scope to include the retrieval of surface soil moisture. The soil moisture retrieval algorithm development focused on using only the radiometer data because of the extensive heritage of passive microwave retrieval of soil moisture. The single channel algorithm (SCA) was implemented using the Aquarius observations to estimate surface soil moisture. Aquarius radiometer observations from three beams (after bias/gain modification) along with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction model forecast surface temperatures were then used to retrieve soil moisture. Ancillary data inputs required for using the SCA are vegetation water content, land surface temperature, and several soil and vegetation parameters based on land cover classes. The resulting global spatial patterns of soil moisture were consistent with the precipitation climatology and with soil moisture from other satellite missions (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System and Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity). Initial assessments were performed using in situ observations from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Little Washita and Little River watershed soil moisture networks. Results showed good performance by the algorithm for these land surface conditions for the period of August 2011-June 2013 (rmse = 0.031 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3), Bias = −0.007 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3), and R = 0.855). This radiometer-only soil moisture product will serve as a baseline for continuing research on both active and combined passive-active soil moisture algorithms. The products are routinely available through the National Aeronautics and Space Administration data archive at the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Soil MOisture↗

Crowd Sourcing Medical Data Collection Using Medical Students

OBJECTIVE We undertook an upgrade of the Evidence Library database of NASA HRP’s Integrated Medical Model, assessing 120 medical conditions which integrate with a novel probabilistic risk assessment (IMPACT) tool of medical risk and resource utilization for long duration exploration human spaceflight. This data collection process included a selection of these conditions crowd sourced over one year via three 4-week medical student electives at the University of Colorado School of Medicine (IDPT 8059 Space Medicine: Human Spaceflight Factors & Medical Risk Assessment). Students undertook a rapid systematic review of each medical condition, under close preceptors with backgrounds in clinical medicine, library science, epidemiology, biostatistics, and evidence-based medicine. As part of the elective, students also received instruction in core space medicine concepts, evidence based medicine and problem based learning sessions as a flight surgeon supporting a simulated Mars mission. METHODS The list of 120 medical conditions includes both common, terrestrial illness/injury (epistaxis, diverticulitis) as well as spaceflight-specific ones (space adaptation conditions, EVA-related injuries). A rapid systematic review process was developed that would allow students to find the data for determining disease incidence/prevalence, return to definitive care (often a surrogate such as hospitalization rates), loss of crew life, and treatment duration. Each data point required a tailored, specialized search process using different databases and corresponding specialized search filters. Databases were selected on their ability to provide high quality literature in an efficient manner and prioritized by their ability to provide graded evidence via a set rubrics specific to human spaceflight. Students were responsible for performing all literature searches and identifying the highest quality available evidence for each data point. Completed student data sheets underwent initial review by faculty preceptors followed by a secondary editing review by the ExMC Clinical Science Team. RESULTS Over the course of three electives, approximately 105 medical conditions were researched by students using spreadsheets with pre-crafted search strategies. Overall, this process was successful in allowing students to perform the preponderance of work to update incidence, treatment duration, return to definitive care, and loss of crew life data points. Students were successful in running searches, identifying the necessary data points within the literature, and determining the types of terrestrial data that most aligns with the astronaut population for successful completion of their tasks. Limitations included variable student experience with search methodologies [PubMed], differing values of evidence grading [best practice evidence based medicine vs. relevant to spaceflight], and students’ unfamiliarity with spaceflight specific conditions. CONCLUSION Finding the relevant literature for medical conditions in spaceflight within terrestrial databases in a systematic method is time consuming and not intuitive. However, the stepwise process that balanced sensitivity with specificity allowed for students to be highly successful in a short amount of time. Additionally, as the process was refined over the course of three electives, preceptors were better able to anticipate where students were likely to encounter barriers, which allowed the course to be adjusted to account for certain data points needing more time for completion. This replicable process may be an efficient way to accomplish rapid systematic reviews for a large volume of data in a short amount of time.

J Lemery↗

Impacts of Groundwater Pumping on Regional and Global Water Resources

Except frozen water in ice and glaciers (68%), groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater (30%), and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this chapter, the most recent advances assessing human impact on regional and global groundwater resources are reviewed. This chapter critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches quantifying the effect of groundwater pumping in regional and global groundwater resources and the evidence of feedback to the Earth system including sea‐level rise associated with groundwater use. At last, critical challenges and opportunities are identified in the use of groundwater to adapt to growing food demand and uncertain climate.

groundwater↗

Large Scale Field Demonstration Evaluation Plan

This Evaluation Plan defines practical, commissioning-oriented test protocols for in-field assessment of grid-forming (GFM) inverter-based resources (IBRs) deployed under the UNIFI Consortium Field Demonstration. The demonstration’s overarching objective is to validate multi vendor GFM technologies at impactful unit/plant scale, assess interoperability and grid-service performance, and evaluate the applicability of the UNIFI Specifications for Grid-forming Inverter-based Resources in real utility environments, including integration with operational systems and protection schemes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Geothermal direct heat use: Market potential/penetration analysis for Federal Region 9

A preliminary study was made of the potential for geothermal direct heat use in Arizona, California, Hawaii, and Nevada (Federal Region 9). An analysis was made of each state to: (1) define the resource, based on the latest available data; (2) assess the potential market growth for geothermal energy; and (3) estimate the market penetration, projected to 2020. Findings of the study include the following: (1) Potentially economical hydrothermal resources exist in all four states of the Region: however, the resource data base is largely incomplete, particularly for low to moderate temperature resources. (2) In terms of beneficial heat, the total hydrothermal resource identified so far for the four states is on the order of 43 Quads, including an estimated 34 Quads of high temperature resources which are suitable for direct as well as electrical applications. (3) In California, Hawaii, and Nevada, the industrial market sector has somewhat greater potential for penetration than the residential/commercial sector. In Arizona, however, the situation is reversed, due to the collocation of two major metropolitan areas (Phoenix and Tucson) with potential geothermal resources.

Powell, W.↗