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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing impurity sourcing and transport in the high temperature boundary of DIII-D wide pedestal QH-mode plasmas

Wide Pedestal QH-mode (WPQH) plasmas in the DIII-D tokamak show a sheath limited SOL, where electron density and temperature remain nearly constant along field lines from the midplane to the divertor. Consequently, parallel gradients are weak. The first Langmuir probe measurements in this regime point to a high sheath temperature with target electron temperature T e up to ~150 eV, leading to high carbon self-sputtering. Midplane carbon densities from SOLPS-ITER modeling of these plasmas in a double-null configuration fall far below experimental measurements unless full drifts are activated. In the drift-dependent SOLPS-ITER modeling, anomalous poloidally uniform, radially varying transport is adjusted to match measured radial electron temperature and density profiles in the pedestal and SOL region. The resulting carbon density (C6+) matches measured carbon densities just inside the separatrix. The C2+ density near the outer strike point is also consistent with spectroscopic imaging. With the ion B×∇B drift towards the X-point, carbon in the lower divertors is redistributed from the private flux region to the high field side (HFS) and pushed upstream in the SOL by poloidal E×B drifts. The B × ∇B drift dominates the radial flow of carbon as it moves upstream. Simulations with reversed toroidal field (ion B × ∇B drift away from the X-point) show a radically different behavior, where carbon accumulates on the low field side in lower divertors, and is pushed towards the HFS in the upper divertors, indicating a strong effect of particle drifts on impurity distribution. In double-null configurations which are usually used in WPQH plasmas, these drift effects tend to counterbalance, so that the carbon density and Z eff are reduced at the outer mid-plane only modestly, by around 7% in the modeling. Further predictive modeling indicates that the carbon density can be significantly reduced by an order of magnitude by implementing a single-null shape with reversed toroidal field.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Temperature and Strain Sensing Characteristics of a 128° YX-Cut LiNbO 3 Rayleigh-Mode SAW Sensor From Room to Cryogenic Temperatures

Accurate, passive, and wireless monitoring of cryogenic hardware is essential for high-energy physics, space propulsion, and biomedical instrumentation. Here, this study quantifies the coupled temperature-strain behavior of Rayleigh-mode surface acoustic-wave (SAW) delay-line sensors fabricated on 128° YX-cut LiNbO 3 . A nonlinear finite element (FE) model incorporating Varshni-based elastic constants, higher-order thermal expansion, and temperature-dependent piezo- and dielectric coefficients was developed and validated experimentally between 280K and 80K. Free-standing (first test condition) and bonded/wired (second test condition) devices exhibited indistinguishable thermal responses; the average temperature coefficient of delay (TCD) in the critical cryogenic range from 130K down to 80K differed by only 0.15 ppm/K (0.32%), confirming that bonding-induced stress is negligible. Over 280-80K the measured TCD was 61.77 ppm/K, while the FE model predicted an equivalent temperature coefficient of frequency (TCF) of −62.74 ppm/K with an overall coefficient of determination R2 = 0.998. In the critical cryogenic interval 130-80K the TCD fell to 47.66 ppm/K, indicating improved thermal stability at low temperature. Controlled loading (0-300 με) revealed a strain coefficient of delay (SCD) that rises from 0.53 ± 0.02 ppm/με at 300K to 1.05 ± 0.02 ppm/με at 80K. This modest sensitivity confirms that, for temperature sensing, strain is a second-order perturbation above 135K but must be compensated at deeper cryogenic levels. Overall, this work establishes a predictive multiphysics model together with repeatable wired measurements that confirm the suitability of SAW sensors for temperature and strain monitoring in extreme cryogenic environments, while also providing a baseline for future wireless implementations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive job and resource management for the growing quantum cloud

As the popularity of quantum computing continues to grow, efficient quantum machine access over the cloud is critical to both academic and industry researchers across the globe. And as cloud quantum computing demands increase exponentially, the analysis of resource consumption and execution characteristics are key to efficient management of jobs and resources at both the vendor-end as well as the client-end. While the analysis and optimization of job / resource consumption and management are popular in the classical HPC domain, it is severely lacking for more nascent technology like quantum computing.This paper proposes optimized adaptive job scheduling to the quantum cloud taking note of primary characteristics such as queuing times and fidelity trends across machines, as well as other characteristics such as quality of service guarantees and machine calibration constraints. Key components of the proposal include a) a prediction model which predicts fidelity trends across machine based on compiled circuit features such as circuit depth and different forms of errors, as well as b) queuing time prediction for each machine based on execution time estimations. Altogether, this proposal is evaluated on simulated IBM machines across a diverse set of quantum applications and system loading scenarios, and is able to reduce wait times by over 3x and improve fidelity by over 40% on specific usecases, when compared to traditional job schedulers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Effect of Phosphate, Fluoride, and Nitrate on Gibbsite Dissolution Rate and Solubility

Laboratory tests have been completed with simulated tank waste samples to investigate the effects of phosphate, fluoride, and nitrate on the dissolution rate and equilibrium solubility of gibbsite in sodium hydroxide solution at 22 and 40{degrees}C. Results are compared to relevant literature data and to computer model predictions. The presence of sodium nitrate (3 M) caused a reduction in the rate of gibbsite dissolution in NaOH, but a modest increase in the equilibrium solubility of aluminum. The increase in solubility was not as large, though, as the increase predicted by the computer model. The presence of phosphate, either as sodium phosphate or sodium fluoride phosphate, had a negligible effect on the rate of gibbsite dissolution, but caused a slight increase in aluminum solubility. The magnitude of the increased solubility, relative to the increase caused by sodium nitrate, suggests that the increase is due to ionic strength (or water activity) effects, rather than being associated with the specific ion involved. The computer model predicted that phosphate would cause a slight decrease in aluminum solubility, suggesting some Al-PO4 interaction. No evidence was found of such an interaction.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2017

2016 International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report

As Earth system models become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive and multi-faceted evaluation of model projections. To advance understanding of biogeochemical processes and their interactions with hydrology and climate under conditions of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, new analysis methods are required that use observations to constrain model predictions, inform model development, and identify needed measurements and field experiments. Better representations of biogeochemistry–climate feedbacks and ecosystem processes in these models are essential for reducing uncertainties associated with projections of climate change during the remainder of the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the 235 U(n, f) and 239 Pu (n, f) cross sections.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report, Technical Report DOE/SC-0186

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

FUEL PERFORMANCE MODELING OF REACTIVITY-INITIATED ACCIDENTS USING THE BISON CODE

The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accidents in 2011 sparked considerable interest in the U.S. to develop new nuclear fuel with enhanced accident tolerance. Throughout the development of these new fuel concepts they will be extensively modeled using specialized computer codes and experimentally tested for a variety of different postulated accident scenarios. One accident scenario of interest, reactivity-initiated accident, is a nuclear reactor event involving a sudden increase in fission rate that causes a rapid increase in reactor power and temperature of the fuel which can lead to the failure of the fuel rods and a release of radioactive material. The focus of this work will be on the fuel performance modeling of reactivity-initiated accidents using the BISON code being developed at Idaho National Laboratory. The overall goal of this work is to provide the best possible modeling predictions for future experimental tests. Accurate predictive capability modeling using BISON is important for safe operation of these tests and provides a cheaper alternative to the expensive experiments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Geodyn Material Library: Pseudocap models for dry porous tocks

This report describes the second edition of the Pseudocap Strength models for porous rocks implemented in GEODYN material library. The first model was developed in 2007 and calibrated for concrete. Then, the model parameters were calibrated based on triaxial tests reported for limestones and sandstones of various porosities. In these models some key parameters were chosen as functions of the reference porosity,Φ. Since then multiple modifications were implemented in the model, therefore, it has been recalibrated for some common porous materials such as limestones, sandstones, alluvium, tuffs and granite. Two types of models are described in this repot. The first type (called Pseudocap Model or PM) is for rocks from a specific location. Parameters were calibrated for several specific geologic materials. The second type (called Generic Pseudocap Model or GPM) is useful for the sites where only basic information (rock type, porosity) is available. Generic models include built-in correlations between porosities and other mechanical properties observed for certain rock types. The models of both types were validated by comparing not only to quasi-static triaxial tests for these materials but also to shock Hugoniot data and spherical explosion data for some materials. All models were derived in the frame of isotropic plasticity. They are designed to be used in explicit finite element/difference codes. Tangent stiffness tensor is not provided but can be calculated numerically for the model to be used in implicit finite element codes. For an isotropic material the stress can be decomposed into volumetric and deviatoric parts. The volumetric part is modeled using an Equation of state (EOS) which calculates the pressure and the bulk sound speed as functions of the internal specific energy and density. Here a simple, Mie-Gruneisen EOS is presented, but tabulated EOS (LEOS) provided by the library can be used as well. The stress is limited by the yield surface which depends on three invariants of the stress tensor and specific internal energy. In addition, to capture the strain-rate dependence a simple multiplier is used for the yield surface which depends on the equivalent plastic strain rate. The failure surface (the ultimate yield, Y f , defined later) is chosen in the Hoek-Brown form, commonly used in rock mechanics. It includes measurable parameters such as Unconfined Compressive Strength (UCS) as well as scale parameters characterizing the quality of the rock such as GSI (Geologic Strength Index). Thus, even though the model is calibrated for small samples it offers a way to extrapolate the strength to the field scale using geological characterization of the rock mass. The model captures effects of brittle-ductile transition in rocks by introducing a cap multiplier to the yield function. The rate of dilatancy (bulking) is proportional to the slope of the yield surface affected by the cap. Therefore, it takes place only at low confinements when the pressure is less than the brittle-ductile transition pressure, P BD . On the contrary, the porous compaction takes place at pressures higher than P BD . The cap moves as the porosity is compacted or new porosity is generated due to dilatancy. The porous compaction is modeled using an evolution equation which includes deviatoric stress so that the onset of compaction corresponds to the cap surface. The model captures effects of shear-enhanced compaction which is an important for porous rocks. Section 2 describes the modeling framework and Section 3 presents the model calibration procedure. Section 4 compares experimental data for various rocks versus model predictions. The model parameters used for this comparison are given in Appendix. The files with material constants are available with the latest GEODYN material library distribution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Lessons Learned from Ecosystem-Scale Experimental Field Studies (Workshop Report)

Efforts to understand and predict ecosystem responses to environmental change require long-term, large-scale, spatially representative experiments and observations that capture natural variability, test predictive models, and generate transferable knowledge. Such studies are indispensable for unraveling the complexities of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to disturbances and evolving environmental conditions, while generating the data necessary for developing mechanistic models and predictive tools that inform decision-making processes. Having a rich history of designing and executing large-scale ecosystem experiments, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Environmental System Science program convened a workshop in January 2025 that brought together leaders in the field to distill critical lessons from decades of experience in large-scale experiments. The workshop aimed to (1) provide an ecosystem experiment primer for best practices, thus ensuring a high scientific return on investment for funding agencies, and (2) offer a robust framework for the design and management of future research initiatives. This report synthesizes insights and experiences from workshop participants and is structured to capture the entire research life cycle, from goal setting and design to operations, adaptive management, team dynamics, collaborations, and the often overlooked aspect of decommissioning. By synthesizing decision-making and lessons learned across diverse research approaches, the report aims to provide a template of essential factors to consider when designing successful long-term, large-scale ecosystem experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Comprehensive Assessments of RNA-seq by the SEQC Consortium: FDA-Led Efforts Advance Precision Medicine

Studies on gene expression in response to therapy have led to the discovery of pharmacogenomics biomarkers and advances in precision medicine. Whole transcriptome sequencing (RNA-seq) is an emerging tool for profiling gene expression and has received wide adoption in the biomedical research community. However, its value in regulatory decision making requires rigorous assessment and consensus between various stakeholders, including the research community, regulatory agencies, and industry. The FDA-led SEquencing Quality Control (SEQC) consortium has made considerable progress in this direction, and is the subject of this review. Specifically, three RNA-seq platforms (Illumina HiSeq, Life Technologies SOLiD, and Roche 454) were extensively evaluated at multiple sites to assess cross-site and cross-platform reproducibility. The results demonstrated that relative gene expression measurements were consistently comparable across labs and platforms, but not so for the measurement of absolute expression levels. As part of the quality evaluation several studies were included to evaluate the utility of RNA-seq in clinical settings and safety assessment. The neuroblastoma study profiled tumor samples from 498 pediatric neuroblastoma patients by both microarray and RNA-seq. RNA-seq offers more utilities than microarray in determining the transcriptomic characteristics of cancer. However, RNA-seq and microarray-based models were comparable in clinical endpoint prediction, even when including additional features unique to RNA-seq beyond gene expression. The toxicogenomics study compared microarray and RNA-seq profiles of the liver samples from rats exposed to 27 different chemicals representing multiple toxicity modes of action. Cross-platform concordance was dependent on chemical treatment and transcript abundance. Though both RNA-seq and microarray are suitable for developing gene expression based predictive models with comparable prediction performance, RNA-seq offers advantages over microarray in profiling genes with low expression. The rat BodyMap study provided a comprehensive rat transcriptomic body map by performing RNA-Seq on 320 samples from 11 organs in either sex of juvenile, adolescent, adult and aged Fischer 344 rats. Lastly, the transferability study demonstrated that signature genes of predictive models are reciprocally transferable between microarray and RNA-seq data for model development using a comprehensive approach with two large clinical data sets. This result suggests continued usefulness of legacy microarray data in the coming RNA-seq era. In conclusion, the SEQC project enhances our understanding of RNA-seq and provides valuable guidelines for RNA-seq based clinical application and safety evaluation to advance precision medicine.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Investigations of Bubbly Flows using Direct Numerical Simulations

Direct numerical simulations are used to examine the behavior of relatively high void fraction bubbly flows. The full Navier-Stokes equations are solved for both the bubbles and the ambient liquid and the flow near the moving and deforming phase boundaries is resolved fully. This yields detailed data for the evolution of the system that can be used to extract information about the basic bubble-bubble and bubble-flow interactions as well as about the averaged properties of the system. Such information are critical for the generation of averaged engineering models of industrial size systems as well as for novel applications of bubbly flows where experiments are difficult. The project has yielded detailed information about many aspects of bubbly flows. The results for flows in vertical channels are particularly significant and have yielded an essentially complete understanding of many aspects of the flows. The important insight is that the flow has a particularly simple structure, consisting of a homogeneous core in hydrostatic balance and a wall layer whose composition depends of whether the liquid is flowing upward or downward. These results hold for both laminar and turbulent flows and have allowed us to derive an analytical model to predict the flow. We have also shown that bubble deformability results in a completely different flow structure, but also giving rise to relatively simple predictive models. Preliminary studies of transient migration of a non-homogeneous bubble distribution and coalescence induced flow regime transitions in vertical channels were also done.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Future of Land-Based Wind Turbine Rotor Technology: The Perspective from NREL

The Big Adaptive Rotor (BAR) Project looks at potential innovative pathways for future land-based wind turbine technology. BAR is led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and is sponsored by the Wind Energy Technology Office of the US Department of Energy. This talk will describe innovations and challenges faced by the teams working on BAR. The innovations include numerical models predicting the stability and performance of highly flexible blades, downwind rotors to maximize wind farm power, and controlled bending of 100-meter-long blades during rail transport. The challenges of developing predictive numerical models and formulating successful value propositions supporting new technologies such as distributed aero control devices will also be discussed.

BAR↗

DOE OSTI2017

Construction of ground-state preserving sparse lattice models for predictive materials simulations

First-principles based cluster expansion models are the dominant approach in ab initio thermodynamics of crystalline mixtures enabling the prediction of phase diagrams and novel ground states. However, despite recent advances, the construction of accurate models still requires a careful and time-consuming manual parameter tuning process for ground-state preservation, since this property is not guaranteed by default. In this paper, we present a systematic and mathematically sound method to obtain cluster expansion models that are guaranteed to preserve the ground states of their reference data. The method builds on the recently introduced compressive sensing paradigm for cluster expansion and employs quadratic programming to impose constraints on the model parameters. The robustness of our methodology is illustrated for two lithium transition metal oxides with relevance for Li-ion battery cathodes, i.e., Li 2x Fe 2(1-x) O 2 and Li 2x Ti 2(1-x) O 2 , for which the construction of cluster expansion models with compressive sensing alone has proven to be challenging. We demonstrate that our method not only guarantees ground-state preservation on the set of reference structures used for the model construction, but also show that out-of-sample ground-state preservation up to relatively large supercell size is achievable through a rapidly converging iterative refinement. This method provides a general tool for building robust, compressed and constrained physical models with predictive power.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Systems and methods for screening particle source manufacturing and development test data

A computing system obtains test data for a particle source. The test data was generated by the particle source when the particle source was caused to emit particles. The test data comprises a first set of measurements of a first type and a second set of measurements of a second type. The computing system applies a data agnostic predictive model to the test data. The data agnostic predictive model is generated without a parametric analysis of variables of the first type and variables of the second type. The data agnostic predictive model outputs, based upon the test data, a value that is indicative of whether or not the test data is abnormal. Based upon the value, the computing system outputs an indication that the particle source was operating sub-optimally when emitting the particles.

Multari, Rosalie A.↗

DOE OSTI2018

A fully 3-D numerical model to predict flood wave propagation and assess efficiency of flood protection measures

Discussed are the development and validation of a 3-D, non-hydrostatic, Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) model using the Volume of Fluid (VOF) approach to simulate flooding events in natural environments. A series of validation simulations in simple and complex geometries are performed to test the different modules of the flow solver. The paper also discusses the differences between simulation results obtained using the 3-D model and those obtained using a standard, 2-D hydrostatic, depth-averaged model. The predictions by the two models show fairly large differences in regions where 3-D effects are expected to be significant (e.g., in regions containing highly-curved river reaches and near hydraulic structures). Then, the validated 3-D model is employed to investigate the efficiency of using flood-protection walls to reduce adverse effects of flooding in the Iowa River near Iowa City, Iowa, USA. Finally, the propagation of a flood wave in a reach of the Iowa River containing a bridge is simulated and the effects of the flow becoming pressurized beneath the bridge deck are discussed. For such applications, in which the regime can change locally between open channel and pressurized flow, the use of fully 3-D, non-hydrostatic models may be the only viable option to accurately predict flow hydrodynamics and its effects on bed shear stresses and sediment entrainment potential, especially around locations where the flow becomes pressurized.

Water Resources↗

DOE OSTI2014

Using an external surrogate for predictor model training in real-time motion management of lung tumors

Purpose: Precise prediction of respiratory motion is a prerequisite for real-time motion compensation techniques such as beam, dynamic couch, or dynamic multileaf collimator tracking. Collection of tumor motion data to train the prediction model is required for most algorithms. To avoid exposure of patients to additional dose from imaging during this procedure, the feasibility of training a linear respiratory motion prediction model with an external surrogate signal is investigated and its performance benchmarked against training the model with tumor positions directly. Methods: The authors implement a lung tumor motion prediction algorithm based on linear ridge regression that is suitable to overcome system latencies up to about 300 ms. Its performance is investigated on a data set of 91 patient breathing trajectories recorded from fiducial marker tracking during radiotherapy delivery to the lung of ten patients. The expected 3D geometric error is quantified as a function of predictor lookahead time, signal sampling frequency and history vector length. Additionally, adaptive model retraining is evaluated, i.e., repeatedly updating the prediction model after initial training. Training length for this is gradually increased with incoming (internal) data availability. To assess practical feasibility model calculation times as well as various minimum data lengths for retraining are evaluated. Relative performance of model training with external surrogate motion data versus tumor motion data is evaluated. However, an internal–external motion correlation model is not utilized, i.e., prediction is solely driven by internal motion in both cases. Results: Similar prediction performance was achieved for training the model with external surrogate data versus internal (tumor motion) data. Adaptive model retraining can substantially boost performance in the case of external surrogate training while it has little impact for training with internal motion data. A minimum adaptive retraining data length of 8 s and history vector length of 3 s achieve maximal performance. Sampling frequency appears to have little impact on performance confirming previously published work. By using the linear predictor, a relative geometric 3D error reduction of about 50% was achieved (using adaptive retraining, a history vector length of 3 s and with results averaged over all investigated lookahead times and signal sampling frequencies). The absolute mean error could be reduced from (2.0 ± 1.6) mm when using no prediction at all to (0.9 ± 0.8) mm and (1.0 ± 0.9) mm when using the predictor trained with internal tumor motion training data and external surrogate motion training data, respectively (for a typical lookahead time of 250 ms and sampling frequency of 15 Hz). Conclusions: A linear prediction model can reduce latency induced tracking errors by an average of about 50% in real-time image guided radiotherapy systems with system latencies of up to 300 ms. Training a linear model for lung tumor motion prediction with an external surrogate signal alone is feasible and results in similar performance as training with (internal) tumor motion. Particularly for scenarios where motion data are extracted from fluoroscopic imaging with ionizing radiation, this may alleviate the need for additional imaging dose during the collection of model training data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Using Real-Time Electricity Prices to Leverage Electrical Energy Storage and Flexible Loads in a Smart Grid Environment Utilizing Machine Learning Techniques

With exposure to real-time market pricing structures, consumers would be incentivized to invest in electrical energy storage systems and smart predictive automation of their home energy systems. Smart home automation through optimizing HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) temperature set points, along with distributed energy storage, could be utilized in the process of optimizing the operation of the electric grid. Using electricity prices as decision variables to leverage electrical energy storage and flexible loads can be a valuable tool to optimize the performance of the power grid and reduce electricity costs both on the supply and demand sides. Energy demand prediction is important for proper allocation and utilization of the available resources. Manipulating energy prices to leverage storage and flexible loads through these demand prediction models is a novel idea that needs to be studied. In this paper, different models for proactive prediction of the energy demand for an entire city using different machine learning techniques are presented and compared. The results of the machine learning techniques show that the proposed nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs neural network model resulted in the most accurate predictions. These prediction models pave the way for the demand side to become an important asset for grid regulation by responding to variable price signals through battery energy storage and passive thermal energy storage using HVAC temperature set points.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗