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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

A Generalized Grain-Scale Model for the Non-Plasma and Plasma-Assisted Hydrogen Direct Reduction of Iron Ore

Direct Reduction of Iron ore using hydrogen (H-DRI) is a promising pathway towards efficient steelmaking and accurate predictive models are a necessity for scale-up and optimization of this technology. However, accurate models of this process remain limited because existing models oversimplify grain-scale phenomena, such as nonlinearity inside grain, self-sufficient porosity, surface reactions, and the role of plasma species. These phenomena are important for flash steelmaking and plasma-assisted H-DRI processes. To address this need, we present a phenomenological model for simulating H-DRI at the scale of a single micron-sized grain of the iron ore. We call this the Transient Reactive Grain Model (TRGM). TRGM incorporates key physical process: gas species transport, a chemical kinetics of material conversion, nanopore structural evolution and, adsorption-desorption surface kinetics at the reactive nanopore surface. The important contribution of this work is that the model provides a dependence on different reductant species, specifically hydrogen atoms versus molecules, so that role of hydrogen plasma reduction can be clarified compared to the use of pure hydrogen gas reduction. TRGM predictions agree well with experimental data for both molecular H2 reduction of Fe2O3 and plasma hydrogen reduction of Fe3O4. Results reveal species concentration gradients with a diffuse reaction zone, and enhanced hydrogen diffusion at the grain outer surface due to evolving porosity. These findings challenge common assumptions in existing models, including sharp reaction fronts, quasi-steady diffusion and kinetics, and the neglect of surface chemistry. As a generalized grain-scale model for H-DRI processes, TRGM has practical applications in flash steelmaking and in-flight reduction using both molecular and plasma hydrogen.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Distribution Network Capacity Market Design: Marginal Distribution Capacity Pricing Mechanism for Efficient Investment and Cost Allocation

As electricity markets begin to shift from reliance on large, centralized power plants and towards distributed energy resources (DERs), there is a growing acknowledgement that more efficient planning, operations, and oversight is needed in the distribution system. This paper addresses one step in that direction by proposing an auction mechanism that uses a detailed distribution system planning model that allocates permits to end-used customers who request capacity to install new devices at their location and network upgrade contracts to utilities or 3rd-party companies who offer to upgrade system components. The resulting plan maximizes market surplus, that is, maximizes the total benefit to consumers minus the cost of network upgrades. We apply a marginal pricing scheme to the auction’s results such that the cost of each permits or contracts is differentiated by time and location, based on the Lagrangian multipliers of binding network constraints. These prices are shown to be no greater than the bid price of any awarded contract and no less than the offered cost of any awarded upgrade contract. Furthermore, the nonlinearity of power flows in the planning model result in an additional surplus that would be collected by the entity that hosts the auction, which could then be refunded to market participants or used to cover overhead costs of running the market. We provide four example auction results in a simple three-node distribution feeder to demonstrate the properties of the design. Results suggest that larger or more realistic case studies could be a promising next step.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stability of Kuramoto networks subject to large and small fluctuations from heterogeneous and spatially correlated noise

Oscillatory networks subjected to noise are broadly used to model physical and technological systems. Due to their nonlinear coupling, such networks typically have multiple stable and unstable states that a network might visit due to noise. In this article, we focus on the assessment of fluctuations resulting from heterogeneous and spatially correlated noise inputs on Kuramoto model networks. We evaluate the typical, small fluctuations near synchronized states and connect the network variance to the overlap between stable modes of synchronization and the input noise covariance. Going beyond small to large fluctuations, we introduce the indicator mode approximation that projects the dynamics onto a single amplitude dimension. Such an approximation allows for estimating rates of fluctuations to saddle instabilities, resulting in phase slips between connected oscillators. Statistics for both regimes are quantified in terms of effective noise amplitudes that are compared and contrasted for several noise models. In conclusion, bridging the gap between small and large fluctuations, we show that a larger network variance does not necessarily lead to higher rates of large fluctuations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Control oriented model order reduction for the hydraulic system of an autonomous wheel loader

Control design for an autonomous wheel loader requires a high-fidelity and low-order dynamics model. The objective of order reduction is to decrease the number of states in the model while maintaining performance comparable to the original model. Of all the power components in a wheel loader, the model order reduction for steering and working hydraulic systems is most demanding due to its nonlinear and stiff dynamical nature. This paper describes a physics-inspired model order reduction method that can reduce the model order by close to thirty percent. It is achieved by discarding orders with fast dynamics and consolidating multiple states into less new states. Furthermore, this method can also be extended to other types of off-road vehicles such as excavators, bulldozers, etc. Simulation results demonstrate that the reduced-order model exhibits very similar performance to the full-order model under typical operating conditions of wheel loaders, with an output error of less than six percent.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertain characterization of reservoir fluids due to brittleness of equation of state regression

Equations of state (EoS) play a central role in modeling the phase equilibrium of fluid mixtures. Their parameterization involves fitting a model to experimental data, i.e., solving a nonlinear, non-convex, multivariate optimization problem. The latter requires one to select design variables, domains of definition for each variable, and weights assigned to individual measurements. We demonstrate that subjective choices of an optimization algorithm and an initial guess also impact the regression process. Consequently, EoS predictions are fundamentally uncertain even after the EoS tuning to a limited set of experimental data points. We demonstrate this observation for two hydrocarbon reservoir fluids, in which five properties of the heaviest carbon fraction are treated as design variables. While all the optimization algorithms and initial guesses match experimental data for the gas and liquid properties, the resulting EoS parameterizations lead to dramatically different predictions of the fluid’s thermophysical behavior in the unsampled pressure and temperature regions. In conclusion, we propose the probabilistic treatment of design variables to quantify the predictive uncertainty of the resulting fluid models.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reduced order modeling for flow and transport problems with Barlow Twins self-supervised learning

Abstract We propose a unified data-driven reduced order model (ROM) that bridges the performance gap between linear and nonlinear manifold approaches. Deep learning ROM (DL-ROM) using deep-convolutional autoencoders (DC–AE) has been shown to capture nonlinear solution manifolds but fails to perform adequately when linear subspace approaches such as proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) would be optimal. Besides, most DL-ROM models rely on convolutional layers, which might limit its application to only a structured mesh. The proposed framework in this study relies on the combination of an autoencoder (AE) and Barlow Twins (BT) self-supervised learning, where BT maximizes the information content of the embedding with the latent space through a joint embedding architecture. Through a series of benchmark problems of natural convection in porous media, BT–AE performs better than the previous DL-ROM framework by providing comparable results to POD-based approaches for problems where the solution lies within a linear subspace as well as DL-ROM autoencoder-based techniques where the solution lies on a nonlinear manifold; consequently, bridges the gap between linear and nonlinear reduced manifolds. We illustrate that a proficient construction of the latent space is key to achieving these results, enabling us to map these latent spaces using regression models. The proposed framework achieves a relative error of 2% on average and 12% in the worst-case scenario (i.e., the training data is small, but the parameter space is large.). We also show that our framework provides a speed-up of $$7 \times 10^{6}$$ 7 × 10 6 times, in the best case, and $$7 \times 10^{3}$$ 7 × 10 3 times on average compared to a finite element solver. Furthermore, this BT–AE framework can operate on unstructured meshes, which provides flexibility in its application to standard numerical solvers, on-site measurements, experimental data, or a combination of these sources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

TRUST Contact Thermal Conductance (TRUST-CTC) Report: FY24

The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainties in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) project is to quantify and help increase confidence in specific areas of computational and experimental capabilities that are applicable to current and future delivery environments. More complete quantification of confidence in experimental and computational capabilities and the sufficient increase of confidence in those capabilities is critical to improving weapons engineering design, qualification, and assessment efforts that are critical to the current and future stockpile. Staff development will include cross-discipline collaboration to provide engineers with experience in both numerical simulations and experimental methods. This work uses and provides feedback on analysis tools and experimental results databases for efficient and responsive engineering which are currently under development. TRUST currently includes five testbeds and their associated engineering analysis baseline models (EABMs): 1. contact thermal conductivity, (CTC) 2. nonlinear dynamics, (ND) 3. sensors in environments for accelerometers, (SEA) 4. sensors in environments for fiber optic displacement gages, and (SEFOD) 5. sensors in environments for thermocouples (SETC). The TRUST project uses single-feature testbeds to quantify uncertainties in specific models and experiments and to identify capability development needs that can help to reduce these uncertainties. Each testbed is designed, configured, and tested in collaboration with groups with design and experimental capability: E-14 and MPA-CINT. The complementary simulations are conducted using W-13 analysis tools and stored in model repositories with plans for incremental progress toward EABM requirements. W-13 extends and exercises the testbed simulations in collaboration with experimentalists for uncertainty quantification of current and future materials, geometries, and environments. Additionally, TRUST is intended to provide engineers in W-13 and E-14 with experience in both numerical simulations and experimental methods through cross-discipline collaborations. Following the introduction to the TRUST project, the remainder of this report focuses on experimental and analytical efforts conducted in Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 relevant to the TRUST Contact Thermal Conductance (CTC) testbed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accurate data-driven surrogates of dynamical systems for forward propagation of uncertainty

Stochastic collocation (SC) is a well-known non-intrusive method of constructing surrogate models for uncertainty quantification. In dynamical systems, SC is especially suited for full-field uncertainty propagation that characterizes the distributions of the high-dimensional solution fields of a model with stochastic input parameters. However, due to the highly nonlinear nature of the parameter-to-solution map in even the simplest dynamical systems, the constructed SC surrogates are often inaccurate. Here, this work presents an alternative approach, where we apply the SC approximation over the dynamics of the model, rather than the solution. By combining the data-driven sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics framework with SC, we construct dynamics surrogates and integrate them through time to construct the surrogate solutions. We demonstrate that the SC-over-dynamics framework leads to smaller errors, both in terms of the approximated system trajectories as well as the model state distributions, when compared against full-field SC applied to the solutions directly. We present numerical evidence of this improvement using three test problems: a chaotic ordinary differential equation, and two partial differential equations from solid mechanics.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

CO 2 storage site characterization using ensemble-based approaches with deep generative models

Estimating spatially distributed properties such as permeability from available sparse measurements is a great challenge in efficient subsurface CO 2 storage operations. In this paper, a deep generative model that can accurately capture complex subsurface structure is tested with an ensemble-based inversion method for accurate and accelerated characterization of CO 2 storage sites. We chose Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) for its realistic reservoir property representation and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) for its robust data fitting and uncertainty quantification capability. WGAN-GP are trained to generate high-dimensional permeability fields from a low-dimensional latent space and ES-MDA then updates the latent variables by assimilating available measurements. Several subsurface site characterization examples including Gaussian, channelized, and fractured reservoirs are used to evaluate the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method and the main features of the unknown permeability fields are characterized accurately with reliable uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the estimation performance is compared with a widely-used variational, i.e., optimization-based, inversion approach, and the proposed approach outperforms the variational inversion method in several benchmark cases. We explain such superior performance by visualizing the objective function in the latent space: because of nonlinear and aggressive dimension reduction via generative modeling, the objective function surface becomes extremely complex while the ensemble approximation can smooth out the multi-modal surface during the minimization. This suggests that the ensemble-based approach works well over the variational approach when combined with deep generative models at the cost of forward model runs unless convergence-ensuring modifications are implemented in the variational inversion.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Process Optimization of Carbon Electrode Materials Manufacturing by Experimental Study and Machine Learning Techniques

Electrospun carbon fibers from coal have been investigated as electrodes for batteries and supercapacitors. Despite the excellent properties of coal-derived carbon fibers (CCNF) for energy storage devices, there still lacks systematic understanding on how various process parameters affect final electrode performances, which poses challenges to scale from pilot to high volume manufacturing. The goals of this project are twofold. First, we focuse on process optimization for converting a new precursor from powder river basin (PRB) coal, referred to as coal-based polyurethane (CPU) to CCNF using electrospinning. Second, different machine learning techniques will be examined using experimental data from this work and open literature. Specifically, for CPU the following process parameters need to be characterized and optimized in order to produce CCNFs with desirable mechanical integrity and physiochemical properties: precursor composition and viscosity, operating voltage and distance, oxidation and carbonization temperature and duration. Consequently, physiochemical properties of the fibers were characterized to correlate these process parameters with desirable electrochemical performance. Given the complex nature of the fiber production process, ML models are assessed for their ability to capture the nonlinear relationship between process parameters and the electrochemical properties in applications including supercapacitors. As such, we applied various machine learning techniques, to determine which technique produces a model that best predicts device function.

Cincotta, Robert E.F.↗
DOE OSTI2024

TRUST Sensors in Environments: Fiber Optic Displacement (SE-FOD) Report, Release FY24

The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainty in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) project is to quantify and help increase confidence in specific areas of computational and experimental capabilities that are applicable to the development, on-target assessment, and qualification of current and future delivery environments. More complete quantification of confidence in experimental and computational capabilities and the sufficient increase of confidence in those capabilities is critical to improving weapons engineering design, qualification, and assessment efforts that are critical to the current and future stockpile. This work uses and provides feedback on analysis tools and experimental results databases for efficient and responsive engineering which are currently under development. Under the TRUST work package, there are five testbeds and their associated engineering analysis baseline models (EABMs): 1. Contact Thermal Conductivity (CTC), 2. Nonlinear Dynamics (ND), 3. Sensors in Environments: Accelerometers (SE-A), 4. Sensors in Environments: Fiber Optic Displacement Gauges (SE-FOD), and 5. Sensors in Environments: Thermocouples (SE-TC). The TRUST project uses single-feature testbeds to quantify uncertainties in specific models and experiments and to identify capability development needs that can help to reduce these uncertainties. Each testbed is designed, configured, and tested in collaboration with groups with design and experimental capability: E-14 and MPA-CINT. The complementary simulations are conducted using W-13 analysis tools and stored in model repositories with plans for incremental progress toward EABM requirements. W-13 extends and exercises the testbed simulations in collaboration with experimentalists for uncertainty quantification of current and future materials, geometries, and environments. Additionally, TRUST is intended to provide engineers in W-13 and E-14 with experience in both numerical simulations and experimental methods through cross-discipline collaborations. Following the introduction to the TRUST project, the remainder of this report focuses on experimental, modeling and simulation, and analysis efforts conducted in FY24 relevant to the TRUST Sensors in Environments: Fiber Optic Displacement (SE-FOD) testbed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic pulse propagation modelling for predictive femtosecond-laser-microbonding of transparent materials

A dynamic pulse propagation modeling for femtosecond laser bonding of Borofloat glass is presented. The temperature evolution and internal modifications are predicted by incorporating the nonlinear electron dynamics along with temperature dependent thermal properties. The modelling predicts the spatial and temporal distribution of absorption coefficient and plasma density that gives quantitative estimations of the heat affected zone and weld geometry. The impact of focusing condition on heat affected zone and weld geometry is investigated, which for the first time to our knowledge allows to numerically determine the desired relative position between the geometrical focus of a femtosecond-laser-pulse and the interface of the two substrates to be welded. The prediction of the modelling on the offset distance is applied to weld Borofloat glass plates having optical contact and can be applied to other dielectric solids.

Sahoo, Pankaj K. (ORCID:0000000209437319)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Study of Particle Loss in Synchrotron Phase Space Injection for ESR Using Weak-Strong Beam-Beam Simulation with Nonlinear Lattice

In this report, we use tracking simulations to investigate synchrotron phase space injection for electron accumulation in the electron storage ring of the Electron Ion Collider. Our simulation model accounts for both beam-beam interactions and lattice nonlinearities. Specifically, we examine how particle loss is influenced by various parameters. Additionally, we conduct a theoretical analysis and derive an analytical formula for the rapid evaluation of particle loss. Our results demon strate the feasibility of synchrotron phase-space injection for the electron storage ring and provide insights to guide parameter selection for the design of the injection line.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analytical and numerical modeling of optical second harmonic generation in anisotropic crystals using #SHAARP package

Electric-dipole optical second harmonic generation (SHG) is a second-order nonlinear process that is widely used as a sensitive probe to detect broken inversion symmetry and local polar order. Analytical modeling of the SHG polarimetry of a nonlinear optical material is essential to extract its point group symmetry and the absolute nonlinear susceptibilities. Current literature on SHG analysis involves numerous approximations and a wide range of (in)accuracies. We have developed an open-source package called the Second Harmonic Analysis of Anisotropic Rotational Polarimetry (#SHAARP.si) which derives analytical and numerical solutions of reflection SHG polarimetry from a single interface (.si) for bulk homogeneous crystals with arbitrary symmetry group, arbitrary crystal orientation, complex and anisotropic linear dielectric tensor with frequency dispersion, a general SHG tensor and arbitrary light polarization. #SHAARP.si enables accurate modeling of polarimetry measurements in reflection geometry from highly absorbing crystals or wedge-shaped transparent crystals. The package is extendable to multiple interfaces.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gaussian processes meet NeuralODEs: a Bayesian framework for learning the dynamics of partially observed systems from scarce and noisy data

We present a machine learning framework (GP-NODE) for Bayesian model discovery from partial, noisy and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of differentiable programming to propagate gradient information through ordinary differential equation solvers and perform Bayesian inference with respect to unknown model parameters using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling and Gaussian Process priors over the observed system states. This allows us to exploit temporal correlations in the observed data, and efficiently infer posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty. The use of the Finnish Horseshoe as a sparsity-promoting prior for free model parameters also enables the discovery of parsimonious representations for the latent dynamics. A series of numerical studies is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed GP-NODE method including predator–prey systems, systems biology and a 50-dimensional human motion dynamical system. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Data-driven prediction in dynamical systems’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

The decay of HIV under anti-retroviral therapy is biphasic even in humanized mice with just T cells

HIV-1 plasma viral load decays in a biphasic manner during antiretroviral therapy (ART). It was hypothesized that this is due to infection of different cell types, namely CD4+ T cells and macrophages. We studied this possibility directly by modeling the decay of HIV-1 in humanized mice. We utilized previously published data from humanized T-cell only mice (TOM) and myeloid-only mice (MOM) infected with HIV-1 and treated with a potent ART regimen. Viral load decay dynamics were modeled using either a single or a biexponential decay fitted using nonlinear mixed effects techniques. Fits were compared using the corrected Bayesian information criterion (BICc). In TOM, the biphasic model was significantly better than a single-phase decay model (ΔBICc ≈ 16) despite additional parameters. In MOM, the biphasic decay was statistically better, but there was substantial uncertainty because the virus goes below detection very fast. The first-phase half-life was consistent between groups (1.2 days in MOM and 1.3 days in TOM) and similar to the half-life estimated in human infection. The second-phase decay in these mice was minimal likely due to low initial viral loads. Additional analyses with mice containing both CD4+ T cells and macrophages or X4-tropic virus-infected MOM mice confirmed the biphasic pattern, demonstrating the robustness of this result. The biphasic decline in HIV-1 occurs, even with only CD4+ T cells, refuting the hypothesis that distinct cell populations (CD4+ T cells and macrophages) drive each decay phase. These findings support an alternative model in which the observed dynamics arise from intrinsic properties of the viral infection lifecycle rather than from cellular compartmentalization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Direct prediction of saturated neoclassical tearing modes in slab using an equilibrium approach

We demonstrate for the first time that the nonlinear saturation of neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) can be found directly using a variational principle based on Taylor relaxation, without needing to simulate the intermediate, resistivity-dependent dynamics. As in previous investigations of classical tearing mode saturation (Loizu et al 2020 Phys. Plasmas 27 070701; Loizu and Bonfiglio 2023 J. Plasma Phys. 89 905890507), we make use of Stepped Pressure Equilibrium Code (SPEC) (Hudson et al 2012 Phys. Plasmas 19 112502), an equilibrium solver based on the variational principle of the multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics (MHDs), featuring stepped pressure profiles and arbitrary magnetic topology. We work in slab geometry and employ a simple bootstrap current model J bs = C$\boldsymbol{\nabla}$p to study the bootstrap-driven tearing modes, scanning over the asymptotic matching parameter Δ' and bootstrap current strength. Saturated island widths produced by SPEC agree well with the predictions of an initial value resistive MHDs code (Huang and Bhattacharjee 2016 Astrophys. J. 818 20) while being orders of magnitude faster to calculate. Additionally, we observe good agreement with a simple analytical modified Rutherford equation, without requiring any fitting coefficients. The match is obtained for both linearly unstable classical tearing modes in the presence of bootstrap current, and NTMs, which are linearly stable but nonlinear-unstable due to the effects of the bootstrap current.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of pellet ELM triggering in low-collisionality, ITER-like discharges

3D nonlinear, as well as 2D linear M3D-C1 simulations are used to model ELM triggering by small pellets in DIII-D discharges in the ITER relevant, peeling-limited pedestal stability regime. A critical pellet size threshold is found in both experiment and modeling depending on pedestal conditions, pellet velocity and injection direction. Using radial injection at the outboard midplane, the threshold is determined by M3D-C1 for multiple time slices of a DIII-D low-collisionality discharge that has pellet ELM triggering. Experimental observations show that a larger pellet size than the standard 1.3 mm diameter is necessary for ELM triggering; 1.8 mm pellets triggered several ELMs in cases where a smaller pellet failed. The M3D-C1 simulations are in good agreement with these observations. While the 2D linear simulations give insight into the change of growth rates for various toroidal modes with pellet size, the 3D nonlinear simulations apply a pellet ablation model that mimics the actual injection with good match to the experiment. The 3D nonlinear simulation confirms the pellet ELM triggering for a pellet size larger than the threshold found by the linear simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗