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NASA NTRS2000

NASA's Design and Development of a Field Goniometer Instrument Using Solid Works

With NASA suffering severe funding cutbacks, engineers at NASA are required to produce state-of-the-art hardware with limited personnel and financial resources. In light of these constraints, the new NASA mandate is to build better, faster and cheaper. In April of 1998, Stennis Space Center's Commercial Remote Sensing Program contracted to the Systems Engineering Division at NASA Ames Research Center to develop a device known as a Field Goniometer. A Field Goniometer is a device that measures bi-directional reflectance of a target, such as vegetation, relative to the sun and an imaging system in an aircraft or spacecraft. The device is able to provide a spectral fingerprint of the surface it is measuring in wavelengths from 350nm-2500nm using a hyperspectral imager. To accomplish this project, several obstacles had to be overcome. First, the design had to be completed in less than four months. Second, due to the complexity of the design, the use of solid modeling was highly desirable but most of the group's solid modelers were assigned to other jobs. Third, the amount of funding available from the customer was one half to one third the funding typically expended for a job of this nature. Our choices for this project were to design with standard 2-D CAD systems currently used in-house or train additional engineers on our existing solids package or purchase a new solid model package. The use of a 2D CAD system was very undesirable due to the complexity of the design. Using our existing solids modeler would have required a learning curve for our engineers that would be incompatible with our schedule. Prior to this project, a member of our design group researched the solid modeling industry and decided to purchase SolidWorks. After examining the product for ease of use, modeling capability, training time required and cost, we decided our highest probability of success would be to design with Solidworks. During the design phase, our fabrication group was able to provide input at the very early stages, which added significant benefit to the final product. Fabrication cost and schedule savings have been realized by having complex part geometries translated directly from the SolidWorks design models to Surfcam and other computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) software. This direct model translation capability optimized the fabrication processes. The end result was that we were able to successfully complete the project on time and on budget. Other advantages of using SolidWorks, as cited by the design team, include a rapid negotiation of the initial learning curve, the ability to develop solid model hardware prototypes (used to communicate the design intent to both the customer and the fabricator), and the ability to work as a team collaborating on a large, complex model. These types of tools and efforts represent our response to NASA's challenge to produce higher quality products within shorter design and fabrication times.

Turner, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2003

Determining the Biogenicity of Microfossils in the Apex Chert, Western Australia, Using Transmission Electron Microscopy

For over a decade, the oldest evidence for life on this planet has been microfossils in the 3.5 Ga Apex Chert in Western Australia. Recently, the biogenicity of these carbon-rich structures has been called into question through reanalysis of the local geology and reinterpretation of the original thin sections. Although initially described as a stratiform, bedded chert of siliceous clasts, the unit is now thought to be a brecciated hydrothermal vein chert. The high temperatures of a hydrothermal environment would probably have detrimental effects to early non-hyperthermophilic life, compared to that of a shallow sea. Conversely, a hydrothermal origin would suggest that if the microfossils were valid, they might have been hyperthermophilic. Apex Chert controversy. The Apex Chert microfossils were originally described as septate filaments composed of kerogen similar in morphology to Proterozoic and modern cyanobacteria. However new thin section analysis shows that these carbonaceous structures are not simple filaments. Many of the original microfossils are branched and have variable thickness when the plane of focus is changed. Hydrothermal alteration of organic remains has also been suggested for the creation of these strange morphologies. Another point of contention lies with the nature of the carbon material in these proposed microfossils. Kerogen is structurally amorphous, but transforms into well-ordered graphite under high pressures and temperatures. Raman spectrometry of the carbonaceous material in the proposed microfossils has been interpreted both as partially graphitized kerogen and amorphous graphite. However, these results are inconclusive, since Raman spectrometry cannot adequately discriminate between kerogen and disordered graphite. There are also opposing views for the origin of the carbon in the Apex Chert. The carbon would be biogenic if the proposed microfossils are indeed the remains of former living organisms. However, an inorganic Fischer- Tropsch-type synthesis is also a possible explanation for the formation of large-aggregate carbonaceous particles and could also account for the depletion of (13)C observed.

DeGregorio, B. T.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Advanced Signal Processing Techniques Applied to Terahertz Inspections on Aerospace Foams

The space shuttle's external fuel tank is thermally insulated by the closed cell foams. However, natural voids composed of air and trapped gas are found as by-products when the foams are cured. Detection of foam voids and foam de-bonding is a formidable task owing to the small index of refraction contrast between foam and air (1.04:1). In the presence of a denser binding matrix agent that bonds two different foam materials, time-differentiation of filtered terahertz signals can be employed to magnify information prior to the main substrate reflections. In the absence of a matrix binder, de-convolution of the filtered time differential terahertz signals is performed to reduce the masking effects of antenna ringing. The goal is simply to increase probability of void detection through image enhancement and to determine the depth of the void.

Trinh, Long Buu↗

DOE OSTI2022

Investigating uncertainties in human adaptation and their impacts on water scarcity in the Colorado river Basin, United States

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) supports the water supply for seven states and forty million people in the Western United States (US) and has been suffering an extensive drought for more than two decades. As climate change continues to reshape water resources distribution in the CRB, its impact can differ in intensity and location, resulting in variations in human adaptation behaviors. The feedback from human systems in response to the environmental changes and the associated uncertainty is critical to water resources management, especially for water-stressed basins. This paper investigates how human adaptation affects water scarcity uncertainty in the CRB and highlights the uncertainties in human behavior modeling. Our focus is on agricultural water consumption, as approximately 80% of the water consumption in the CRB is used in agriculture. We adopted a coupled agent-based and water resources modeling approach for exploring human-water system dynamics, in which an agent is a human behavior model that simulates a farmer’s water consumption decisions. We examined uncertainties at the system, agent, and parameter levels through uncertainty, clustering, and sensitivity analyses. The uncertainty analysis results suggest that the CRB water system may experience 13 to 30 years of water shortage during the 2019–2060 simulation period, depending on the paths of farmers’ adaptation. The clustering analysis identified three decision-making classes: bold, prudent, and forward-looking, and quantified the probabilities of an agent belonging to each class. The sensitivity analysis results indicated agents whose decision-making models require further investigation and the parameters with the higher uncertainty reduction potentials. Here, by conducting numerical experiments with the coupled model, this paper presents quantitative and qualitative information about farmers’ adaptation, water scarcity uncertainties, and future research directions for improving human behavior modeling.

Agent-based modeling↗

DOE OSTI2023

Learning effective stochastic differential equations from microscopic simulations: Linking stochastic numerics to deep learning

We identify effective stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for coarse observables of fine-grained particle- or agent-based simulations; these SDEs then provide useful coarse surrogate models of the fine scale dynamics. We approximate the drift and diffusivity functions in these effective SDEs through neural networks, which can be thought of as effective stochastic ResNets. The loss function is inspired by, and embodies, the structure of established stochastic numerical integrators (here, Euler–Maruyama and Milstein); our approximations can thus benefit from backward error analysis of these underlying numerical schemes. They also lend themselves naturally to “physics-informed” gray-box identification when approximate coarse models, such as mean field equations, are available. Existing numerical integration schemes for Langevin-type equations and for stochastic partial differential equations can also be used for training; we demonstrate this on a stochastically forced oscillator and the stochastic wave equation. Our approach does not require long trajectories, works on scattered snapshot data, and is designed to naturally handle different time steps per snapshot. We consider both the case where the coarse collective observables are known in advance, as well as the case where they must be found in a data-driven manner.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Historical Perspective on Primary and Possible Secondary Sources of Atmospheric Carbon Tetrachloride

Atmospheric sources of Carbon Tetrachloride (CTC) have been controversial since its detection in the early 1970. Initial proposals were that it is globally uniformly distributed and its lack of current emissions and inferred lifetime indicated that it was likely of natural origin. Historical analysis of CTC use and emissions showed that atmospheric CTC was long-lived and mainly of man-made origin although small natural sources and sinks (e. g. oceans) could not be ruled out. This deduction was hard because a majority of emissions had occurred in early part of the 20th century when CTC was commonly used as a fumigant, a solvent, and a raw material for the manufacture of many chemicals. In the 1940's adverse health effects of exposure to CTC became evident and its emissions were greatly curtailed and substituted with C2Cl4 which was thought to be much safer. There were smog chamber studies that showed that C2Cl4, a widely used solvent during the late 20th century, could produce CTC with up to a 7% yield. Subsequently it was discovered that this chemistry probably required Cl atoms and since Cl atoms were not abundant in the atmosphere actual yields based on OH oxidation were probably closer to 0.1%. CTC was subsequently banned by the Montreal Protocol to prevent stratospheric ozone depletion and its preferred substitute C2Cl4 was also banned by EPA for reasons of potential carcinogenicity and toxicity. CTC since has been measured in many airborne NASA campaigns in which plumes have been sampled from a variety of regions which may still be emitting CTC. I will briefly discuss this historical perspective of CTC and show some recent data that may shed light on its current sources or lack there off.

atmosphere↗

NASA NTRS1983

Nature of the Kirkwood gaps in the asteroid belt

It is demonstrated that the Kirkwood gaps are not merely regions of low asteroidal number density, but are regions in a-e-sin 1/2 I space where libration of some argument is possible. It is argued that neither the statistical nor the cosmogonic hypothesis of gap formation can account for these new observations. It is shown that the present distribution of asteroidal semimajor axes can be used to deduce the present semimajor axis of Jupiter to an accuracy of one part in five thousand. Thus, there has been very little change in the orbital period of Jupiter since the time of formation of the present gaps. This observation eliminates the possibility that the observed gaps were formed by resonance sweeping at the time of the dispersal of the accretion disk. It is concluded that the gaps have been formed by the gravitational action of Jupiter on individual asteroids and that gap formation has probably continued throughout the lifetime of the solar system.

Dermott, S. F.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven predictions of the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached

Leveraging artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained on climate model output, we use the spatial pattern of historical temperature observations to predict the time until critical global warming thresholds are reached. Although no observations are used during the training, validation, or testing, the ANNs accurately predict the timing of historical global warming from maps of historical annual temperature. The central estimate for the 1.5 °C global warming threshold is between 2033 and 2035, including a ±1σ range of 2028 to 2039 in the Intermediate (SSP2-4.5) climate forcing scenario, consistent with previous assessments. However, our data-driven approach also suggests a substantial probability of exceeding the 2 °C threshold even in the Low (SSP1-2.6) climate forcing scenario. While there are limitations to our approach, our results suggest a higher likelihood of reaching 2 °C in the Low scenario than indicated in some previous assessments—though the possibility that 2 °C could be avoided is not ruled out. Explainable AI methods reveal that the ANNs focus on particular geographic regions to predict the time until the global threshold is reached. Our framework provides a unique, data-driven approach for quantifying the signal of climate change in historical observations and for constraining the uncertainty in climate model projections. Given the substantial existing evidence of accelerating risks to natural and human systems at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, our results provide further evidence for high-impact climate change over the next three decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Human Mars Mission: Launch Window from Earth Orbit

The determination of orbital window characteristics is of major importance in the analysis of human interplanetary missions and systems. The orbital launch window characteristics are directly involved in the selection of mission trajectories, the development of orbit operational concepts, and the design of orbital launch systems. The orbital launch window problem arises because of the dynamic nature of the relative geometry between outgoing (departure) asymptote of the hyperbolic escape trajectory and the earth parking orbit. The orientation of the escape hyperbola asymptotic relative to earth is a function of time. The required hyperbola energy level also varies with time. In addition, the inertial orientation of the parking orbit is a function of time because of the perturbations caused by the Earth's oblateness. Thus, a coplanar injection onto the escape hyperbola can be made only at a point in time when the outgoing escape asymptote is contained by the plane of parking orbit. Even though this condition may be planned as a nominal situation, it will not generally represent the more probable injection geometry. The general case of an escape injection maneuver performed at a time other than the coplanar time will involve both a path angle and plane change and, therefore, a DELTA V penalty. Usually, because of the DELTA V penalty the actual departure injection window is smaller in duration than that determined by energy requirement alone. This report contains the formulation, characteristics, and test cases for five different launch window modes for Earth orbit. These modes are: (1) One impulsive maneuver from a Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO) (2) Two impulsive maneuvers from a Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO) (3) One impulsive maneuver from a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) (4) Two impulsive maneuvers from LEO (5) Three impulsive maneuvers from LEO.

Young, Archie↗

NASA NTRS2001

Human Exploration Missions Study Launch Window from Earth Orbit

The determination of orbital launch window characteristics is of major importance in the analysis of human interplanetary missions and systems. The orbital launch window characteristics are directly involved in the selection of mission trajectories, the development of orbit operational concepts, and the design of orbital launch systems. The orbital launch window problem arises because of the dynamic nature of the relative geometry between outgoing (departure) asymptote of the hyperbolic escape trajectory and the earth parking orbit. The orientation of the escape hyperbola asymptotic relative to earth is a function of time. The required hyperbola energy level also varies with time. In addition, the inertial orientation of the parking orbit is a function of time because of the perturbations caused by the Earth's oblateness. Thus, a coplanar injection onto the escape hyperbola can be made only at a point in time when the outgoing escape asymptote is contained by the plane of parking orbit. Even though this condition may be planned as a nominal situation, it will not generally represent the more probable injection geometry. The general case of an escape injection maneuver performed at a time other than the coplanar time will involve both a path angle and plane change and, therefore, a Delta(V) penalty. Usually, because of the Delta(V) penalty the actual departure injection window is smaller in duration than that determined by energy requirement alone. This report contains the formulation, characteristics, and test cases for five different launch window modes for Earth orbit. These modes are: (1) One impulsive maneuver from a Low Earth Orbit (LEO), (2) Two impulsive maneuvers from LEO, (3) Three impulsive maneuvers from LEO, (4) One impulsive maneuvers from a Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO), (5) Two impulsive maneuvers from a Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO) The formulation of these five different launch window modes provides a rapid means of generating realistic parametric data for space exploration studies. Also the formulation provides vector and geometrical data sufficient for use as a good starting point in detail trajectory analysis based on calculus of variations, steepest descent, or parameter optimization program techniques.

Young, Archie↗

NASA NTRS2004

Spectral Index and Quasi-Periodic Oscillation Frequency Correlation in Black Hole (BH) Sources: Observational Evidence of Two Phases and Phase Transition in BHs

Recent studies have shown that strong correlations are observed between the low frequencies (1-10 Hz) of quasiperiodic oscillations (QPOs) and the spectral power law index of several Black Hole (BH) candidate sources, in low hard states, steep power-law (soft) states and in transition between these states. The observations indicate that the X-ray spectrum of such state (phases) show the presence of a power-law component and are sometimes related to simultaneous radio emission indicated the probable presence of a jet. Strong QPOs (less than 20% rms) are present in the power density spectrum in the spectral range where the power-law component is dominant ( i.e. 60-90% ). This evidence contradicts the dominant long standing interpretation of QPOs as a signature of the thermal accretion disk. We present the data from the literature and our own data to illustrate the dominance of power-law index-QPO frequency correlations. We provide a model, that identifies and explains the origin of the QPOs and how they are imprinted on the properties of power-law flux component. We argue the existence of a bounded compact coronal region which is a natural consequence of the adjustment of Keplerian disk flow to the innermost sub-Keplerian boundary conditions near the central object and that ultimately leads to the formation of a transition layer (TL) between the adjustment radius and the innermost boundary. The model predicts two phases or states dictated by the photon upscattering produced in the TL: (1) hard state, in which the TL is optically thin and very hot (kT approx. greater than 50 keV) producing photon upscattering via thermal Componization; the photon spectrum index Gamma appprox.1.5 for this state is dictated by gravitational energy release and Compton cooling in an optically thin shock near the adjustment radius; (2) a soft state which is optically thick and relatively cold (approx. less than 5 keV); the index for this state, Gamma approx. 2.8 is determined by soft-photon upscattering and photon trapping in converging flow into BH. In the TL model for corona the QPO frequency vnu(sub high) is related to the gravitational (close to Keplerian) frequency nu(sub K) at the outer (adjustment) radius and nu(sub low) is related to the TL s normal mode (magnetoacoustic) oscillation frequency nu(sub MA). The observed correlations between index and low and high QPO frequencies are readily explained in terms of this model. We also suggest a new method for evaluation of the BH mass using the index-frequency correlation.

Titarchuk, Lev↗

NASA NTRS2004

Ice Radiation Chemistry as a Source of Potential False Biomarkers on the Surface of Europa

If we find evidence of Life elsewhere in the Solar System it will probably be in form of chemical biomarkers, quintessentially biological molecules that indicate the presence of micro-organisms. While molecules such as amino acids and nucleo-bases might seem to be biomarkers, and alkyl substituted aromatics have been invoked as such, they are not necessarily. These molecules are present in some meteorites and are expected to be present on the surface of other planets even in the absence of life. Understanding the range of non-biological organic molecules which could act as false biomarkers in space is a prerequisite for any reasonable search for true biomarkers on other worlds. Our experiments have shown that some organic molecules in meteorites that appear biological in nature are formed by energetic processing of extraterrestrial ices can account for amino acids, quinones and other functionalized aromatic compounds. In the past, such molecules have been proposed as biomarkers. For example, alkylated aromatics were invoked as biomarkers in the Alan Hills 84001 'Martian meteorite.' When simple organics arrive at the surface of a body like Europa, either from below or from space, how long do they survive and what do they make? How can we distinguish these from real biomarkers?

Bernstein, Max P.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Human Mars Mission: Launch Window from Earth Orbit

The determination of orbital window characteristics is of major importance in the analysis of human interplanetary missions and systems. The orbital launch window characteristics are directly involved in the selection of mission trajectories, the development of orbit operational concepts, and the design of orbital launch systems. The orbital launch window problem arises because of the dynamic nature of the relative geometry between outgoing (departure) asymptote of the hyperbolic escape trajectory and the earth parking orbit. The orientation of the escape hyperbola asymptotic relative to the earth is a function of time. The required hyperbola energy level also varies with time. In addition, the inertial orientation of the parking orbit is a function of time because of the perturbations caused by the Earth's oblateness. Thus, a coplanar injection onto the escape hyperbola can be made only at a point in time when the outgoing escape asymptote is contained by the plane of parking orbit. Even though this condition may be planned as a nominal situation, it will not generally represent the more probable injection geometry. The general case of an escape injection maneuver performed at a time other than the coplanar time will involve both a path angle and plane change and, therefore, a delta V penalty. Usually, because of the delta V penalty the actual departure injection window is smaller in duration than that determined by energy requirement alone. This report contains the formulation, characteristics, and test cases for five different launch window modes for Earth orbit. These modes are: 1) One impulsive maneuver from a Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO); 2) Two impulsive maneuvers from a Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO); 3) One impulsive maneuver from a Low Earth Orbit (LEO); 4) Two impulsive maneuvers form LEO; and 5) Three impulsive maneuvers form LEO. The formulation of these five different launch window modes provides a rapid means of generating realistic parametric data for space exploration studies. Also the formulation provides vector and geometrical data sufficient for use as a good starting point in detail trajectory analysis based on calculus of variations, steepest descent, or parameter optimization program techniques.

Young, Archie↗

NASA NTRS2004

Spectral Index and Quasi-Periodic Oscillation Frequency Correlation in Black Hole Sources: Observational Evidence of Two Phases and Phase Transition in Black Holes

Recent studies have shown that strong correlations are observed between the low frequencies (1-10 Hz) of quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) and the spectral power law index of several black hole (BH) candidate sources, in low (hard) states, steep power law (soft) states, and transitions between these states. The observations indicate that the X-ray spectra of such state (phases) show the presence of a power-law component and are sometimes related to simultaneous radio emission, indicating the probable presence of a jet. Strong QPOs (>20% rms) are present in the power density spectrum in the spectral range where the power-law component is dominant (i.e., 60%90%). This evidence contradicts the dominant, long-standing interpretation of QPOs as a signature of the thermal accretion disk. We present the data from the literature and our own data to illustrate the dominance of power-law index-QPO frequency correlations. We provide a model that identifies and explains the origin of the QPOs and how they are imprinted on the properties of the power-law flux component. We argue for the existence of a bounded compact coronal region that is a natural consequence of the adjustment of the Keplerian disk flow to the innermost sub-Keplerian boundary conditions near the central object and that ultimately leads to the formation of a transition layer (TL) between the adjustment radius and the innermost boundary. The model predicts two phases or states dictated by the photon upscattering produced in the TL: (1) a hard state, in which the TL is optically thin and very hot (kT approximately greater than 50 keV), producing photon upscattering via thermal Comptonization (the photon spectrum index Gamma approximates 1.7 for this state is dictated by gravitational energy release and Compton cooling in an optically thin shock near the adjustment radius), and (2) a soft state that is optically thick and relatively cold (kT approximately less than 5 keV the index for this state, Gamma approximates 2.8, is determined by soft-photon upscattering and photon trapping in a converging flow into the BH). In the TL model for the corona, the QPO frequency V(sub high) is related to the gravitational (close to Keplerian) frequency V(sub K) at the outer (adjustment) radius and v(sub low) is related to the TL's normal mode (magnetoacoustic) oscillation frequency v(sub MA) . The observed correlations between index and low and high QPO frequencies are readily explained in terms of this model. We also suggest a new method for evaluation of the BH mass using the index-frequency correlation.

Titarchuk, Lev↗

NASA NTRS2019

Risk of Increased Fragmentation Events Due to Low Altitude Large Constellation Spacecraft

Orbital debris experts and industry leaders are concerned about the added hazard that thousands of additional spacecraft would have on the future orbital debris environment. Large constellations proposals plan to deploy spacecraft at altitudes from 1100 km to 1300 km, where fragmentation debris can take thousands of years or longer to decay naturally, while other proposals include deploying spacecraft at station-keeping altitudes from 300 km to 600 km. Although these lower altitude spacecraft are compliant with the 25-year rule, there is still an increased risk of accidental explosions generating high velocity fragments that could damage international spacecraft assets. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has conducted several parametric studies that examine the potential negative environmental impacts of large constellation deployments. This study addresses the lower altitude constellations and the potential risk that they impose on the future environment during mission operations. The projected future environment is generated as the average of 100 LEGEND Monte Carlo (MC) simulation runs while adjusting parameters such as average probability of explosion and operational lifetime per constellation. Results of the effect of accidental explosions of large constellation spacecraft on the environment below 600 km altitude are analyzed.

Vavrin, A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analyzing the Subjectivity of Hole-Type Image Quality Indicators for Radiography

Hole-type penetrameters used as image quality indicators (IQIs) for radiography have an inherent degree of subjectivity to their interpretation. The 1T (one times the thickness of the penetrameter) hole is so small, it can be difficult to distinguish from noise. It is suspected that an operator’s knowledge of the true location of the 1T hole may subconsciously influence a false positive identification of the 1T hole when in fact it cannot be discerned. In the case of computed radiography (CR), the size of the phosphor particles may lead to a noise pattern with features on the scale of the 1T hole. Per NASA-STD-5009, the 1T hole must be detected in order to achieve adequate sensitivity. This is based on the historical understanding that this sensitivity will enable detection of the minimum detectable flaw sizes listed in the standard. It’s important to understand if 1T sensitivity is being achieved, and the associated risk if not. This study sought to determine the true detectability of 1T-sized holes in aluminum and Inconel by creating and inspecting a set of penetrameters with randomly placed holes. Enough holes and vacant zones were created to enable a full probability of detection study with 90% detectability, 95% confidence. Testing is ongoing, but preliminary results have shown poor detectability. The detection rate is slightly better for Inconel than aluminum, slightly better using a micro-focus vs. mini-focus tube, and definitively better for film than CR. One of the key questions of this study is whether historical requirements for film are applicable for CR, and these initial findings suggest they may not be. There is also a requirement in the NASA standard for the minimum contrast-to-noise ratio of the hole. The results have shown that this numerical threshold does not correlate well with visual detection. This raises questions about the true nature of detection, in an age of image processing vs. human judgement. As the results indicate that the detection of 1T holes is unreliable, the next challenge will be determining what sensitivity is really achieved, and what is needed.

Erin Lanigan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analyzing the Subjectivity of Hole-Type Image Quality Indicators for Radiography

Erin Lanigan↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Effect of Storm Direction on Flood Frequency Analysis

Abstract Storm direction modulates a hydrograph's magnitude and duration, thus having a potentially large effect on local flood risk. However, how changes in the preferential storm direction affect the probability distribution of peak flows remains unknown. We address this question with a novel Monte Carlo approach where stochastically transposed storms drive hydrologic simulations over medium and mesoscale watersheds in the Midwestern United States. Systematic rotations of these watersheds are used to emulate changes in the preferential storm direction. We found that the peak flow distribution impacts are scale‐dependent, with larger changes observed in the mesoscale watershed than in the medium‐scale watershed. We attribute this to the high diversity of storm patterns and the storms' scale relative to watershed size. This study highlights the potential of the proposed stochastic framework to address fundamental questions about hydrologic extremes when our ability to observe these events in nature is hindered by technical constraints and short time records.

Perez, G.↗