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At least 919 records · Page 51

Uncertainty of Wheat Water Use: Simulated Patterns and Sensitivity to Temperature and CO2

Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Here, sixteen wheat simulation models were used to quantify sources of model uncertainty and to estimate the relative changes and variability between models for simulated WU, water use efficiency (WUE, WU per unit of grain dry mass produced), transpiration efficiency (Teff, transpiration per kg of unit of grain yield dry mass produced), grain yield, crop transpiration and soil evaporation at increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). The greatest uncertainty in simulating water use, potential evapotranspiration, crop transpiration and soil evaporation was due to differences in how crop transpiration was modelled and accounted for 50 of the total variability among models. The simulation results for the sensitivity to temperature indicated that crop WU will decline with increasing temperature due to reduced growing seasons. The uncertainties in simulated crop WU, and in particularly due to uncertainties in simulating crop transpiration, were greater under conditions of increased temperatures and with high temperatures in combination with elevated atmospheric [CO2] concentrations. Hence the simulation of crop WU, and in particularly crop transpiration under higher temperature, needs to be improved and evaluated with field measurements before models can be used to simulate climate change impacts on future crop water demand.

Sensitivity↗

Evaluation of sky spectra and sky models in daylighting simulations

Sky models in daylight simulations represent the luminance variation across the sky-dome for different locations, dates, times and weather conditions, but skies are typically modelled as colourless. Recent studies explore techniques for incorporating the spectral content of daylighting in simulations. This paper provides an evaluation of the existing spectral sky models in lighting simulation software. The comparisons are made between the available mathematical sky models and naturally occurring skies that were recorded using high dynamic range photography and spectrophotometric measurements. The results show that recently developed sky models present progress compared to colourless sky models, but further research is needed to accurately simulate daylight spectra.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Emulating a System Dynamics Model with Agent-Based Models: A Methodological Case Study in Simulation of Diabetes Progression

An agent-based simulation model hierarchy emulating disease states and behaviors critical to progression of diabetes type 2 was designed and implemented in the DEVS framework. The models are translations of basic elements of an established system dynamics model of diabetes. In this model hierarchy, which mimics diabetes progression over an aggregated U.S. population, was dis-aggregated and reconstructed bottom-up at the individual (agent) level. Four levels of model complexity were defined in order to systematically evaluate which parameters are needed to mimic outputs of the system dynamics model. Moreover, the four estimated models attempted to replicate stock counts representing disease states in the system dynamics model, while estimating impacts of an elderliness factor, obesity factor and health-related behavioral parameters. Health-related behavior was modeled as a simple realization of the Theory of Planned Behavior, a joint function of individual attitude and diffusion of social norms that spread over each agent s social network. Although the most complex agent-based simulation model contained 31 adjustable parameters, all models were considerably less complex than the system dynamics model which required numerous time series inputs to make its predictions. In all three elaborations of the baseline model provided significantly improved fits to the output of the system dynamics model. The performances of the baseline agent-based model and its extensions illustrate a promising approach to translate complex system dynamics models into agent-based model alternatives that are both conceptually simpler and capable of capturing main effects of complex local agent-agent interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

UTM Modeling and Simulation

This presentation introduces modeling and fast-time simulation research conducted under the UTM project. The background and necessity of developing such fast-time simulation capability for high-density UTM operations are first described. The system diagram, individual models, implementation, and performance of such fast-time simulation capability are then discussed. Next, studies utilizing this fast-time simulation capability are highlighted. Finally, future applications of the fast-time simulation capability are presented.

UTM↗

Microbial Models for Simulating Soil Carbon Dynamics: A Review

Abstract Soils store the largest amount of carbon (C) in the biosphere, and the C pool in soil is critical to the global C balance. Numerous microbial models have been developed over the last few decades to represent microbial processes that regulate the responses of soil organic carbon (SOC) to climate change. However, the representation of microbial processes varies, and how microbial processes are incorporated into SOC models has not been well explored. Here, we reviewed 71 microbial models to characterize the microbial processes incorporated into SOC models and analyzed variations in mechanistic complexity. We revealed that (a) four processes (microbial‐mediated decomposition, mineral interaction, microbial necromass recycling, and active and dormant microbial dynamics) are commonly incorporated in microbial models, (b) ∼48% of models simulate only one microbial process (i.e., microbial‐mediated decomposition) and 35% of models simulate two microbial processes: for example, microbial‐mediated decomposition and mineral interaction, (c) more than 80% microbial models use nonlinear equations, such as forward Michaelis‐Menten kinetics, to represent SOC decomposition, (d) the concept of persistence of SOC due to its intrinsic properties has been replaced by organo‐mineral interaction (∼39% of microbial models) that protects SOC from decomposition, and (e) various temperature and moisture modifiers and pH effects have been used to explain the environmental effect on microbial processes. In the future, to realistically incorporate microbial processes into Earth System Models, it is imperative to identify experimental evidence on rate limitation processes and firmly ground model structure on the field and laboratory data.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Space Shuttle Propulsion Systems Plume Modeling and Simulation for the Lift-Off Computational Fluid Dynamics Model

This paper details advances being made in the development of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes numerical simulation tools, models, and methods for the integrated Space Shuttle Vehicle at launch. The conceptual model and modeling approach described includes the development of multiple computational models to appropriately analyze the potential debris transport for critical debris sources at Lift-Off. The conceptual model described herein involves the integration of propulsion analysis for the nozzle/plume flow with the overall 3D vehicle flowfield at Lift-Off. Debris Transport Analyses are being performed using the Shuttle Lift-Off models to assess the risk to the vehicle from Lift-Off debris and appropriately prioritized mitigation of potential debris sources to continue to reduce vehicle risk. These integrated simulations are being used to evaluate plume-induced debris environments where the multi-plume interactions with the launch facility can potentially accelerate debris particles toward the vehicle.

Strutzenberg, L. L.↗

Trusted Simulation: Considering Model Quality in the Context of User Trust

A high‐quality simulation model should help its users to easily and appropriately calibrate their trust in the model. Traditional evaluation metrics such as validation and robustness are necessary but insufficient for this task. Trust calibration depends on factors like the model's transparency, applicability to intended use, usability, reputation, and consideration of potential bias. This article proposes a framework for designing and evaluating system dynamics models by considering factors that contribute to the proper calibration of user trust. This framework takes inspiration from trusted artificial intelligence, broadening our traditional concept of model quality and explicitly focusing on what users need to consider a model trustworthy and to understand the model's relevance to its intended purpose. The trusted simulation framework can improve our integration of model quality activities throughout the modeling process, leading to more impactful and better‐targeted model design, development, and evaluation.

Naugle, Asmeret Bier [Sandia National Laboratories↗

Evaluation of Cloud-Resolving Model Intercomparison Simulations Using TWP-ICE Observations: Precipitation and Cloud Structure

The Tropical Warm Pool.International Cloud Experiment (TWP ]ICE) provided extensive observational data sets designed to initialize, force, and constrain atmospheric model simulations. In this first of a two ]part study, precipitation and cloud structures within nine cloud ]resolving model simulations are compared with scanning radar reflectivity and satellite infrared brightness temperature observations during an active monsoon period from 19 to 25 January 2006. Seven of nine simulations overestimate convective area by 20% or more leading to general overestimation of convective rainfall. This is balanced by underestimation of stratiform rainfall by 5% to 50% despite overestimation of stratiform area by up to 65% because of a preponderance of very low stratiform rain rates in all simulations. All simulations fail to reproduce observed radar reflectivity distributions above the melting level in convective regions and throughout the troposphere in stratiform regions. Observed precipitation ]sized ice reaches higher altitudes than simulated precipitation ]sized ice despite some simulations that predict lower than observed top ]of ]atmosphere infrared brightness temperatures. For the simulations that overestimate radar reflectivity aloft, graupel is the cause with one ]moment microphysics schemes whereas snow is the cause with two ]moment microphysics schemes. Differences in simulated radar reflectivity are more highly correlated with differences in mass mean melted diameter (Dm) than differences in ice water content. Dm is largely dependent on the mass ]dimension relationship and gamma size distribution parameters such as size intercept (N0) and shape parameter (m). Having variable density, variable N0, or m greater than zero produces radar reflectivities closest to those observed.

Varble, Adam↗

An HPC-Based Hydrothermal Finite Element Simulator for Modeling Underground Geothermal Behavior with Example Simulations on The Treasure Island and UC Berkeley Campus

This submission contains the source code of the Hydrothermal Finite Element Simulator used for the Treasure Island and UC Berkeley campus geothermal simulation. It contains a report that summarizes the development and validation of this Hydrothermal Finite Element Simulator, with a case study on Treasure Island site. It also contains a report that investigates the feasibility of upgrading the existing campus energy delivery system at UC Berkeley to a fifth-generation district heating and cooling system that includes geothermal heat/cold storage.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) Simulation Algorithms for Evaluation of Large-Scale Extreme Fast Charging Systems (T&D Models)

Simulation of high-fidelity models of extreme fast charging (XFC) systems and large-area power grids with many XFCs can be time consuming in traditional simulators. Traditional simulators use a single method of discretization for all the components that results in imposing a large computational burden of inverting a large matrix as well as increased computations related to single method of discretization (that is typically a trapezoidal method). To overcome the problem of simulating large-area power grids with many XFCs, in this paper, advanced numerical simulation algorithms are applied for the first time together to reduce the dimension of matrix inversion. Here, the algorithms include numerical stiffness-based segregation, time constant-based segregation, clustering and aggregation on differential algebraic equations (DAEs), and multi-order integration approaches. These algorithms apply multiple discretization algorithms rather than a single discretization algorithm that further reduces the computational burden. The approaches mentioned here have resulted in speed-up of up to 18x in the simulation of a single distribution system with 15 XFCs and of up to 271x in the simulation of a transmission-distribution system with 300 XFCs in multiple distribution feeders with respect to conventional simulators (like power systems computer aided design [PSCAD]).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Large Eddy Simulation of Aircraft Wake Vortices in a Homogeneous Atmospheric Turbulence: Vortex Decay and Descent

The effects of ambient turbulence on decay and descent of aircraft wake vortices are studied using a validated, three-dimensional: large-eddy simulation model. Numerical simulations are performed in order to isolate the effect of ambient turbulence on the wake vortex decay rate within a neutrally-stratified atmosphere. Simulations are conducted for a range of turbulence intensities, by injecting wake vortex pairs into an approximately homogeneous and isotropic turbulence field. The decay rate of the vortex circulation increases clearly with increasing ambient turbulence level, which is consistent with field observations. Based on the results from the numerical simulations, simple decay models are proposed as functions of dimensionless ambient turbulence intensity (eta) and dimensionless time (T) for the circulation averaged over a range of radial distances. With good agreement with the numerical results, a Gaussian type of vortex decay model is proposed for weak turbulence: while an exponential type of Tortex decay model can be applied for strong turbulence. A relationship for the vortex descent based on above vortex decay model is also proposed. Although the proposed models are based on simulations assuming neutral stratification, the model predictions are compared to Lidar vortex measurements observed during stable, neutral, and unstable atmospheric conditions. In the neutral and unstable atmosphere, the model predictions appear to be in reasonable agreement with the observational data, while in the stably-stratified atmosphere, they largely underestimate the observed circulation decay with consistent overestimation of the observed vortex descent. The underestimation of vortex decay during stably-stratified conditions suggests that stratification has an important influence on vortex decay when ambient levels of turbulence are weak.

Han, Jongil↗

Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Accident Tolerant Fuels High Impact Problem: U 3 Si 2 Modeling Capabilities

U 3 Si 2 fuel is a potential candidate replacement for UO 2 in light water reactor fuel rods due to its higher uranium density and thermal conductivity. Its lower melting temperature and significant gaseous swelling may be of concern. The aggressive development schedule of the United States Department of Energy’s (DOE) Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) to have potential accident tolerant fuels (ATF) concepts in lead test rods or assemblies by 2022 has necessitated the need for advanced modeling and simulation techniques to investigate the behavior of these materials under normal operating and accident conditions. This report presents the modeling capabilities for U 3 Si 2 fuel at the engineering (continuum) scale developed as part of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) high impact problem (HIP). In this report, the models incorporated into the BISON fuel for U 3 Si 2 are described and comparisons to conventional UO 2 for separate effects cases are presented.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Standard for Models and Simulations

This NASA Technical Standard establishes uniform practices in modeling and simulation to ensure essential requirements are applied to the design, development, and use of models and simulations (MS), while ensuring acceptance criteria are defined by the program project and approved by the responsible Technical Authority. It also provides an approved set of requirements, recommendations, and criteria with which MS may be developed, accepted, and used in support of NASA activities. As the MS disciplines employed and application areas involved are broad, the common aspects of MS across all NASA activities are addressed. The discipline-specific details of a given MS should be obtained from relevant recommended practices. The primary purpose is to reduce the risks associated with MS-influenced decisions by ensuring the complete communication of the credibility of MS results.

verification↗

Workshop on Modeling and Simulation of Systems and Applications, August 13-14, 2014, University of Washington, Seattle

In our efforts to continue the momentum toward quantitative understanding of the performance, power, and reliability of systems and applications, the modeling and simulation (hereafter ModSim) community gathered for its annual Workshop on Modeling & Simulation of Systems and Applications, held August 13-14, 2014 in Seattle. The 2014 Workshop on Modeling & Simulation of Systems and Applications, or ModSim 2014, focused on three critical technological areas: 1. Integrated Modeling and Simulation of Performance, Power, and Reliability; 2. Standards, Integration, and Interoperability of ModSim Methodologies and Tools; and 3. Advances in Core Modeling and Simulation Methods and Tools. The two-day meeting featured 21 presentations (based on peer-reviewed submissions) delivered over six parallel sessions, and there were six invited talks. Discussions aimed toward consolidating and directing this diverse technical community were especially beneficial as we continue to map out the future and form of ModSim research and development. This report presents a summary of the presentations, discussions, and findings culled from ModSim 2014. Each of the three critical technology areas are presented, structured as major research directions, gaps, cross-pollination, and path forward.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗