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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

International Energy Agency Ocean Energy Systems Task 10 Wave Energy Converter Modeling Verification and Validation: Preprint

This is the first joint reference paper for the Ocean Energy Systems (OES) Task 10 Wave Energy Converter modeling verification and validation group. The group is established under the OES Energy Technology Network program under the International Energy Agency. OES was founded in 2001 and Task 10 was proposed by Bob Thresher (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) in 2015 and approved by the OES Executive Committee EXCO in 2016. The kickoff workshop took place in September 2016, wherein the initial baseline task was defined. Experience from similar offshore wind validation/verification projects (OC3-OC5 conducted within the International Energy Agency Wind Task 30) [1], [2] showed that a simple test case would help the initial cooperation to present results in a comparable way. A heaving sphere was chosen as the first test case. The team of project participants simulated different numerical experiments, such as heave decay tests and regular and irregular wave cases. The simulation results are presented and discussed in this paper.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Megahertz Rate Optical Diagnostics of Explosively Generated Soot

Detonation of a solid explosive produces a turbulent and luminous post‐detonation fireball containing condensed carbon soot. Diagnostics of soot dynamics are needed for model validation and to interpret emission signals. Diffuse back‐illumination extinction imaging (DBI‐EI) and laser‐induced incandescence (LII) are two common optical diagnostics for flame soot. This work extends both to measure time‐resolved soot dynamics from a 12 mm HMX hemisphere. DBI‐EI measured line‐of‐sight optical extinction exceeds 99% in some regions. Results are tomographically inverted to obtain a signal proportional to the soot volume fraction. Pulse‐burst LII measures are presented at 1 MHz. For the first time, LII results are combined with DBI‐EI extinction measurements to quantify and correct for signal trapping. Following this, spatially and temporally resolved DBI‐EI and LII measures are shown to be in reasonable agreement. Finally, experimental results are compared against recently developed simulations. Quantitative differences in the soot mixing dynamics are resolved. These findings motivate future model improvements and demonstrate ongoing needs for diagnostic advancements for heavily sooting environments.

diffuse back-illumination extinction imaging↗
DOE OSTI2013

Assessment of Land Surface Model Performance in WRF for Simulating Wind at Heights Relevant to the Wind Energy Community

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to investigate the impact of land surface model (LSM) physics on the simulated surface energy balance and the near surface wind profile, including heights reached by a modern wind turbine. Simulations were made for a domain centered over the Department of Energy (DOE) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Central Facility in northern Oklahoma. High-resolution measurements of surface fluxes and profiles of wind speed, direction and turbulence were available for model validation. We tested 10 common LSM configurations in WRF including Noah, Noah-MP, SSiB, Pleim-Xiu, RUC, and others to evaluate (1) the accuracy of simulated surface energy fluxes, (2) the accuracy of forecasted rotor-disk height wind speeds, and (3) the sensitivity of rotor disk wind speed to the choice of LSM. WRF was run for four, two-week periods covering different canopy, surface meteorology and soil moisture conditions. LSM performances varied by simulation period and errors were greatest during periods with high soil moisture and live crop cover, indicating highest LSM sensitivity when PBL behavior is most coupled to land-atmosphere exchange. Higher wind speed errors also occurred at night during the spring, possibly from the difficulty with simulating nocturnal low-level jets. We found that choice of land surface model led to a ~10% improvement in simulating hub-height wind speed. Errors in wind shear were also sensitive to the choice of LSM. Overall the best performing models were Noah and Noah-MP. The variability of LSM performance across different soil moisture and vegetation canopy conditions suggests LSM representation of surface energy exchange processes in WRF remains a large source of model uncertainty. Furthermore, our results indicate the choice of LSM impacts simulated wind fields in WRF at heights relevant to the wind industry, at least for the Southern Great Plains region.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation of Numerical Models of the Offshore Wind Turbine From the Alpha Ventus Wind Farm Against Full-Scale Measurements Within OC5 Phase III

The main objective of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration Continuation, with Correlation (OC5) project is validation of aero-hydro-servo-elastic simulation tools for offshore wind turbines (OWTs) through comparison of simulated results to the response data of physical systems. Phase III of the OC5 project validates OWT models against the measurements recorded on a Senvion 5M wind turbine supported by the OWEC Quattropod from the alpha ventus offshore wind farm. The following operating conditions of the wind turbine were chosen for the validation: (1) idling below the cut-in wind speed, (2) rotor-nacelle assembly (RNA) rotation maneuver below the cut-in wind speed, (3) power production below and above the rated wind speed, and (4) shutdown. A number of validation load cases were defined based on these operating conditions. The following measurements were used for validation: (1) strains and accelerations recorded on the support structure and (2) pitch, yaw, and azimuth angles, generator speed, and electrical power recorded from the RNA. Strains were not directly available from the majority of the OWT simulation tools; therefore, strains were calculated based on out-of-plane bending moments, axial forces, and cross-sectional properties of the structural members. The simulation results and measurements were compared in terms of time series, discrete Fourier transforms, power spectral densities, and probability density functions of strains and accelerometers. A good match was achieved between the measurements and models setup by OC5 Phase III participants.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Diffusive confinement of free radical intermediates in the OH radical oxidation of semisolid aerosols

Multiphase chemical reactions (gas + solid/liquid) involve a complex interplay between bulk and interface chemistry, diffusion, evaporation, and condensation. Reactions of atmospheric aerosols are an important example of this type of chemistry: the rich array of particle phase states and multiphase transformation pathways produce diverse but poorly understood interactions between chemistry and transport. Their chemistry is of intrinsic interest because of their role in controlling climate. Their characteristics also make them useful models for the study of principles of reactivity of condensed materials under confined conditions. Previously, we have reported a computational study of the oxidation chemistry of a liquid aliphatic aerosol. In this study, we extend the calculations to investigate nearly the same reactions at a semisolid gas-aerosol interface. A reaction-diffusion model for heterogeneous oxidation of triacontane by hydroxyl radicals (OH) is described, and its predictions are compared to measurements of aerosol size and composition, which evolve continuously during oxidation. Our results are also explicitly compared to those obtained for the corresponding liquid system, squalane, to pinpoint salient elements controlling reactivity. The diffusive confinement of the free radical intermediates at the interface results in enhanced importance of a few specific chemical processes such as the involvement of aldehydes in fragmentation and evaporation, and a significant role of radical-radical reactions in product formation. The simulations show that under typical laboratory conditions semisolid aerosols have highly oxidized nanometer-scale interfaces that encapsulate an unreacted core and may confer distinct optical properties and enhanced hygroscopicity. This highly oxidized layer dynamically evolves with reaction, which we propose to result in plasticization. The validated model is used to predict chemistry under atmospheric conditions, where the OH radical concentration is much lower. The oxidation reactions are more strongly influenced by diffusion in the particle, resulting in a more liquid-like character.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of a high current density, high temperature superconducting cable for pulsed magnets

Abstract A low AC loss Rare Earth Barium Copper Oxide (REBCO) cable, based on the VIPER cable technology has been developed by Commonwealth Fusion Systems for use in high field, REBCO based tokamaks. The new cable is composed of partitioned and transposed copper ‘petals’ shaped to fit together in a circular pattern with each petal containing a REBCO tape stack and insulated from each other to reduce AC losses. A stainless steel jacket adds mechanical robustness—also serving as a vessel for solder impregnation—while a tube runs through the middle for cooling purposes. Additionally, fiber optic sensors are placed under the tape stacks for quench detection. To qualify this design, a series of experiments were conducted as part of the SPARC tokamak Central Solenoid Model Coil program—to retire the risks associated with full scale, fast ramping, high flux HTS Central Solenoid (CS) and Poloidal Field (PF) coils for tokamak fusion power plants and net energy demonstrators. These risk study and risk reduction experiments include (1) AC loss measurement and model validation in the range of ~5 T/s, (2) an IxB electromagnetic loading of over 850 kN/m at the cable level and up to 300 kN/m at the stack level, (3) a transverse compression resilience of over 350 MPa, (4) manufacturability at tokamak relevant speeds and scales, (5) cable to cable joint performance, (6) fiber optic based quench detection speed, accuracy, and feasibility, and (7) overall winding pack integration and magnet assembly. The result is a cable technology, now referred to as PIT VIPER, with AC losses that measure fifteen times lower (at ~5 T/s) than its predecessor technology; a 2% or lower degradation of critical current (Ic) at high IxB electromagnetic loads; no detectable Ic degradation up to 570 MPa of transverse compression on the cable unit cell; end to end magnet manufacturing, consistently producing Ic values within 7% of the model prediction; cable to cable joint resistances at 20 K on the order of ~15 nΩ; and fast, functional quench detection capabilities that do not involve voltage taps. This cable technology will be tested comprehensively in a Central Solenoid Model Coil to prove its readiness for compact, high field tokamak operation.

Sanabria, Charlie (ORCID:0000000150175309)↗
DOE OSTI2019

gcamland v1.0 – An R Package for Modelling Land Use and Land Cover Change

gcamland is an open source R package that was built to allocate land across a variety of types based on changes in agricultural yield and commodity price. The land allocation algorithm is based on the one included in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). gcamland includes the ability to run in a historical mode, enabling model validation and parameter estimation, or in a future mode, simulating changes in land use/land cover in the future. For both modes, gcamland can run a single simulation or a large ensemble of simulations with different parameters. When ensembles are generated in the historical mode, gcamland calculates the likelihood of a given parameter set by comparing to observational data. gcamland is publicly available via GitHub and has can be adjusted to represent alternative scenarios or configured to different regions and land types.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A predictive analytical model of electrical transport in multi-principal-element alloys

A predictive analytical model is presented for the electrical conductivity of multi-principal-element alloys (MPEAs), including those containing aluminum, transition metals, and refractory metals. Given that the lattice parameter of the Wigner-Seitz cell of an MPEA is similarly variable to a bulk metallic glass, it is postulated that electron scattering can be approximated by a series of two-level systems. Here, the resulting reduced-order model enabled an accurate determination of electrical resistivity and electron thermal conductivity based on the scattering of electrons in a two-level system across a Bloch-potential-based virtual crystal approximation. Model results are compared to experimental four-point probe electrical resistivity measurements between 300 K and 700 K for Al 0.3 CoCrCuFeNi, CoCrFeMnNi, (CoCrFeMnNi) 0.98 W 0.02 , (CoCrFeMnNi) 0.95 W 0.05 , and Nb 4 Ta 4 V 3 Ti, for model validation.

Analytical model↗
DOE OSTI2015

Technical Note: Validation of halo modeling for proton pencil beam spot scanning using a quality assurance test pattern

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the utility of a comprehensive test pattern in validating calculation models that include the halo component (low-dose tails) of proton pencil beam scanning (PBS) spots. Such a pattern has been used previously for quality assurance purposes to assess spot shape, position, and dose. Methods: In this study, a scintillation detector was used to measure the test pattern in air at isocenter for two proton beam energies (115 and 225 MeV) of two IBA universal nozzles (UN #1 and UN #2). Planar measurements were compared with calculated dose distributions based on the weighted superposition of location-independent (UN #1) or location-dependent (UN #2) spot profiles, previously measured using a pair-magnification method and between two nozzles. Results: Including the halo component below 1% of the central dose is shown to improve the gamma-map comparison between calculation and measurement from 94.9% to 98.4% using 2 mm/2% criteria for the 115 MeV proton beam of UN #1. In contrast, including the halo component below 1% of the central dose does not improve the gamma agreement for the 115 MeV proton beam of UN #2, due to the cutoff of the halo component at off-axis locations. When location-dependent spot profiles are used for calculation instead of spot profiles at central axis, the gamma agreement is improved from 98.0% to 99.5% using 2 mm/2% criteria. The two nozzles clearly have different characteristics, as a direct comparison of measured data shows a passing rate of 89.7% for the 115 MeV proton beam. At 225 MeV, the corresponding gamma comparisons agree better between measurement and calculation, and between measurements in the two nozzles. Conclusions: In addition to confirming the primary component of individual PBS spot profiles, a comprehensive test pattern is useful for the validation of the halo component at off-axis locations, especially for low energy protons.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

The future of wind energy in California: Future projections with the Variable-Resolution CESM

Shifting wind patterns are an expected consequence of global climate change, with direct implications for wind energy production. However, wind is notoriously difficult to predict, and significant uncertainty remains in our understanding of climate change impacts on existing wind generation capacity. Historical and future wind climatology and associated capacity factors at five wind turbine sites in California are examined. Historical (1980–2000) and mid-century (2030–2050) simulations were produced using the Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to understand how these wind generation sites are expected to be impacted by climate change. A high-resolution statistically downscaled WRF product provided by DNV GL, reanalysis datasets MERRA-2, CFSR, NARR, and observational data were used for model validation and comparison. These projections suggest that wind power generation capacity throughout the state is expected to increase during the summer, and decrease during fall and winter, based on significant changes at several wind farm sites. Finally, this study improves the characterization of uncertainty around the magnitude and variability in space and time of California's wind resources in the near future, and also enhances our understanding of the physical mechanisms related to the trends in wind resource variability.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Audible Noise Modeling of Hydrogen Release Sonic Hazards in Rail Maintenance Facilities

This study implemented validated literature models to predict audible noise due to pressurized gaseous hydrogen releases through a thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) and attached vent stack. A literature survey discovered limited hydrogen-specific noise prediction models validated by experiments. However, empirical noise prediction models for air flowing through pipes and valves were identified. These empirical models were used to predict noise levels and compared against hydrogen noise data reported in two studies: one experimental study of noise from hydrogen leaking through a pipe and another which modeled hydrogen flowing through a solenoid valve during a fuel cell vehicle refueling. The valve flow model was then applied to predict noise for hydrogen releases through a TPRD. Results show that hydrogen releases through a TPRD can produce harmful noise levels varying from 134 to 150 dB. However, further model validation and additional experimental data are needed to improve prediction confidence and accuracy.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-D-BRB-01: A Predictive Planning Tool for Stereotactic Radiosurgery

Purpose: To demonstrate the feasibility of a predictive planning tool which provides SRS planning guidance based on simple patient anatomical properties: PTV size, PTV shape and distance from critical structures. Methods: Ten framed SRS cases treated at Winship Cancer Institute of Emory University were analyzed to extract data on PTV size, sphericity (shape), and distance from critical structures such as the brainstem and optic chiasm. The cases consisted of five pairs. Each pair consisted of two cases with a similar diagnosis (such as pituitary adenoma or arteriovenous malformation) that were treated with different techniques: DCA, or IMRS. A Naive Bayes Classifier was trained on this data to establish the conditions under which each treatment modality was used. This model was validated by classifying ten other randomly-selected cases into DCA or IMRS classes, calculating the probability of each technique, and comparing results to the treated technique. Results: Of the ten cases used to validate the model, nine had their technique predicted correctly. The three cases treated with IMRS were all identified as such. Their probabilities of being treated with IMRS ranged between 59% and 100%. Six of the seven cases treated with DCA were correctly classified. These probabilities ranged between 51% and 95%. One case treated with DCA was incorrectly predicted to be an IMRS plan. The model’s confidence in this case was 91%. Conclusion: These findings indicate that a predictive planning tool based on simple patient anatomical properties can predict the SRS technique used for treatment. The algorithm operated with 90% accuracy. With further validation on larger patient populations, this tool may be used clinically to guide planners in choosing an appropriate treatment technique. The prediction algorithm could also be adapted to guide selection of treatment parameters such as treatment modality and number of fields for radiotherapy across anatomical sites.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Single-shot in-line x-ray phase-contrast imaging of void-shockwave interactions in fusion energy materials

Recent breakthroughs in nuclear fusion, specifically the report of reactions exceeding scientific breakeven at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), highlight the potential of inertial fusion energy (IFE) as a sustainable and virtually limitless energy source. However, further progress in IFE requires characterization of defects in ablator materials and how they affect fuel capsule compression. Voids within the ablator can degrade energy yield, but their impact on the density distribution has primarily been studied through simulations, with limited high-resolution experimental validation. To address this, we used the x-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) at the matter in extreme conditions (MECs) instrument at the Linac coherent light source (LCLS) to capture 2D x-ray phase-contrast (XPC) images of a void-bearing sample with a composition similar to inertial confinement fusion (ICF) ablators. By driving a compressive shockwave through the sample using MEC's long-pulse laser system, we analyzed how voids influence shockwave propagation and density distribution during compression. To quantify this impact, we extracted phase information using two phase retrieval algorithms. First, we applied the contrast transfer function (CTF) method, paired with Tikhonov regularization and a fast optimization approach to generate an initial phase estimate. We then refined the result using a projected gradient descent (PGD) method that works directly with the sample's refractive index. Comparing these results with radiation adaptive grid Eulerian (xRAGE) radiation hydrodynamic simulations enables identification of model validation needs or improvements. By calculating phase maps in situ, it becomes possible to reconstruct areal density maps, improving understanding of laser-capsule interactions and advancing IFE research.

Hodge, D. S. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, ↗
DOE OSTI2019

Historical Comparison of Capacity Build Decisions from the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) Model

The Regional Energy Deploy System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model is frequently used to project the evolution of the U.S. power sector under a wide range of conditions. However, the model's capacity expansion decisions have never been evaluated against historical capacity expansion decisions. In this work, we perform a model validation exercise, comparing capacity expansion decision from ReEDS for 2010-2016 against the actual buildout of the electricity sector. We find that with three key adjustments ReEDS is able to reproduce national level results with reasonably high accuracy. Those three adjustments are to use historical average planning reserve margins instead of the NERC-recommended reserve margin levels, using actual financing costs rather than long-term average financing costs, and disallowing the lowest-cost hydropower upgrades, geothermal sites, and compress-air energy storage sites. We also compare the ReEDS results at a state-level and find that state-level results can be better represented by including a penalty for transferring power between regions. The improved results with that penalty indicate that the ReEDS transmission representation is likely not sufficiently stringent, and should be improved. Overall these results show that with the improvements described above, ReEDS can effectively reproduce historical capacity additions, which increases our confidence in using the model in making forward-looking projections.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Coupled CFD and chemical-kinetics simulations of cellulosic-biomass enzymatic hydrolysis: Mathematical-model development and validation

Computational simulations of cellulosic-biomass enzymatic hydrolysis using a computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) model coupled to a chemical-kinetics model are presented in this work. A time-step sub-cycling strategy was used to circumvent large disparities in time scales with respect to transport physics and chemical kinetics. The unknown reaction and transport parameters in the mathematical model were first fit to two canonical experiments: a well-mixed case that was limited by reaction kinetics and a settled-solids case that was limited by transport. Here, the model was then validated against a benchtop experiment for an intermediate-mixing scenario, for which simulation results were in reasonable agreement with experimentally measured cellulose conversions. Settling of cellulose particles and diffusion of enzymes determine overall conversion rates for lower mixing rates, while reaction rates dominate conversion at higher mixing rates for which greater homogenization of substrates is achieved.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Cell-autonomous progeroid changes in conditional mouse models for repair endonuclease XPG deficiency

As part of the Nucleotide Excision Repair (NER) process, the endonuclease XPG is involved in repair of helix-distorting DNA lesions, but the protein has also been implicated in several other DNA repair systems, complicating genotype-phenotype relationship in XPG patients. Defects in XPG can cause either the cancer-prone condition xeroderma pigmentosum (XP) alone, or XP combined with the severe neurodevelopmental disorder Cockayne Syndrome (CS), or the infantile lethal cerebro-oculo-facio-skeletal (COFS) syndrome, characterized by dramatic growth failure, progressive neurodevelopmental abnormalities and greatly reduced life expectancy. Here, we present a novel (conditional) Xpg -/- mouse model which—in a C57BL6/FVB F1 hybrid genetic background—displays many progeroid features, including cessation of growth, loss of subcutaneous fat, kyphosis, osteoporosis, retinal photoreceptor loss, liver aging, extensive neurodegeneration, and a short lifespan of 4–5 months. We show that deletion of XPG specifically in the liver reproduces the progeroid features in the liver, yet abolishes the effect on growth or lifespan. In addition, specific XPG deletion in neurons and glia of the forebrain creates a progressive neurodegenerative phenotype that shows many characteristics of human XPG deficiency. Our findings therefore exclude that both the liver as well as the neurological phenotype are a secondary consequence of derailment in other cell types, organs or tissues (e.g. vascular abnormalities) and support a cell-autonomous origin caused by the DNA repair defect itself. In addition they allow the dissection of the complex aging process in tissue- and cell-type-specific components. Moreover, our data highlight the critical importance of genetic background in mouse aging studies, establish the Xpg -/- mouse as a valid model for the severe form of human XPG patients and segmental accelerated aging, and strengthen the link between DNA damage and aging.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spectroscopic Measurements and Models of Energy Deposition in the Substrate of Quantum Circuits by Natural Ionizing Radiation

Naturally occurring background radiation is a potential source of correlated decoherence events in superconducting qubits that will challenge error-correction schemes. In order to characterize the radiation environment in an unshielded laboratory representative of superconducting qubits’ environments, we performed broadband, spectroscopic measurements of background radiation events inside a millikelvin refrigerator. The spectrometer was designed to mimic the size and composition of a quantum circuit. Specifically, we measured the background radiation spectra in silicon substrates of two thicknesses, 500 and 1500 µm, and one area, 25 mm 2 . The observed spectra span energies from a few kilo-electron-volts up to nearly 10 MeV, are nearly featureless, and decrease in intensity by a factor of 40 000 between 100 keV and 3 MeV for the 500-µm substrate. We integrate the spectra to obtain the average event rates and deposited power levels. These quantities correspond to a rate of 0.023 events per second and a power of 4.9 keV s -1 , when counting events that deposit at least 40 keV for the 500-µm-thick substrate. We find that the cryogenic measurements are in good agreement with predictions based on simple measurements of the terrestrial gamma-ray flux outside the refrigerator, published models of cosmic-ray fluxes, a crude model of the cryostat, and radiation-transport simulations. This model requires no free parameters to predict the background radiation spectra in the silicon substrates. The agreement between measurements and predictions demonstrates that the model we present can be used to assess the relative contributions of terrestrial and cosmic-ray sources to background radiation interactions in silicon substrates of varying thickness. These spectroscopic measurements are performed with a novel combination of superconducting microresonators located on micromachined silicon islands that define the interaction volume with background radiation. The resonators transduce deposited energy to a readily detectable electrical signal. Microresonator readout closely resembles dispersive superconducting qubit readout, so similar devices—with or without micromachined islands—are suitable for integration with superconducting quantum circuits as detectors for background radiation events. For our specific laboratory conditions, we find that gamma-ray emissions from radioisotopes are responsible for the majority of events that deposit E < 1 ⁢Me⁢V. We present results demonstrating that the background radiation spectrum contains relevant contributions from cosmic-ray particles other than muons, particularly a tail of multi-mega-electron-volt events due to protons and neutrons. These observations suggest several paths to reducing the impact of background radiation on quantum circuits, supported by an empirically validated model for generating reliable predictions of radiation interactions with silicon substrates.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

Model Calibration vs. Physics-guided Coverage Mapping: Case Study - Pressure Drop Calculations

This work deals with a fundamental question in model validation: given a body of available experiments and an envisaged domain of nuclear reactor operating conditions (referred to as the reactor application), how can one develop a quantitative approach that measures the portion of the prior uncertainties of the reactor application that is covered by the available experiments? Coverage here means that the uncertainties of the reactor application are originating from and behaving in exactly the same way as those observed at the experimental conditions. This approach is valuable as it provides a scientifically defendable criterion by which experimentally measured biases can be credibly extrapolated (i.e., mapped) to biases for the reactor applications. This work focuses on the application of a new methodology, referred to as physics-guided coverage mapping (PCM), to the estimation of hydraulic pressure losses in reactor pipes. PCM provides a generic, calibration-free approach to the mapping of experimental biases by relying on high fidelity physics simulation and information theoretic measure how much of the application domain is covered by the experiments. The idea is to employ the physics models to establish a joint probability distribution that relates the application and the available body of experiments. An information-theoretic measure, referred to as the mutual information, is used to calculate a quantitative metric that measures the inter-dependence between the application and the experiment. A virtual experiment is employed to demonstrate the application of PCM, wherein the pressure drop is calculated for both the experiment and the application using two different flow conditions, i.e., laminar and turbulent, and the experimental values are simulated. All parameters introducing uncertainties, such as geometry, friction factor formulas and their associated parameters are also incorporated. The results obtained with PCM are compared to a conventional calibration-based approach. This work show that the proposed approach can circumvent a number of challenges that face calibration-based methods, such as nonlinearity, ill-posedness and error compensation in high dimensional models with many parameters. This work focus primarily in this summary on parameter uncertainties and how they can be treated using PCM. In a separate summary, discuss performance of PCM under the presence of modeling uncertainties. This simple study has shown that calibration techniques for very simple situations cannot correctly scale the measurements from the experimental to the application domain. It is our view that is occurs primarily due the phenomenon of error compensation where on artificially changes the value of selected parameters to account for all sources of uncertainties. The situation gets more complicated when one calibrates multiple parameters where now the problem could potentially have an infinite number of ways by which the errors can be compensated. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗