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DOE OSTI2026

Contrasting Carbon–Water–Energy Dynamics in Perennial and Annual Bioenergy Agroecosystems Using Eddy Covariance and Interpretable Machine Learning

Understanding how agroecosystems respond to environmental variability is fundamental to predicting productivity and sustainability under a changing climate. We analyzed 55 site-years of high-frequency eddy covariance observations from five agroecosystems—two perennial grasses (miscanthus and switchgrass), two annual rotation systems (maize–soybean and sorghum–soybean), and a restored native prairie—to examine ecosystem-scale carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Using an interpretable machine-learning framework with regression tree ensembles, Shapley Additive Explanations, and Accumulated Local Effects, we quantified how environmental and temporal factors regulate gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), water-use efficiency, and the Bowen ratio. Perennials exhibited stronger physiological buffering and maintained fluxes across a broader range of temperature and moisture conditions, reflecting deeper rooting and persistent canopy cover. Annuals, in contrast, showed greater short-term variability and stronger coupling to atmospheric demand, with GPP and ET declining rapidly under low humidity or soil moisture. Differences in temperature sensitivity of Bowen ratio further revealed that perennials sustained proportionally greater sensible heat flux under cool conditions, whereas annuals exhibited constrained energy exchange when evaporative demand was low. Together, these results demonstrate that crop life cycle and canopy structure are fundamental determinants of ecosystem-scale carbon–water–energy coupling. By integrating long-term flux observations with interpretable machine learning, this study identifies the environmental drivers that shape agroecosystem function and highlights how conversion from annual to perennial feedstocks can enhance climatic resilience and alter land–atmosphere energy feedbacks. These findings provide a data-driven basis for improving crop and Earth-system models and for guiding bioenergy landscape design under future climate scenarios.

Accumulated Local Effects↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning dielectric screening for the simulation of excited state properties of molecules and materials

Accurate and efficient calculations of absorption spectra of molecules and materials are essential for the understanding and rational design of broad classes of systems. Solving the Bethe–Salpeter equation (BSE) for electron–hole pairs usually yields accurate predictions of absorption spectra, but it is computationally expensive, especially if thermal averages of spectra computed for multiple configurations are required. We present a method based on machine learning to evaluate a key quantity entering the definition of absorption spectra: the dielectric screening. We show that our approach yields a model for the screening that is transferable between multiple configurations sampled during first principles molecular dynamics simulations; hence it leads to a substantial improvement in the efficiency of calculations of finite temperature spectra. We obtained computational gains of one to two orders of magnitude for systems with 50 to 500 atoms, including liquids, solids, nanostructures, and solid/liquid interfaces. Importantly, the models of dielectric screening derived here may be used not only in the solution of the BSE but also in developing functionals for time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) calculations of homogeneous and heterogeneous systems. Overall, our work provides a strategy to combine machine learning with electronic structure calculations to accelerate first principles simulations of excited-state properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning based inverse modeling of full-field strain distribution for mechanical characterization of a linear elastic and heterogeneous membrane

Heterogeneous membranes or films are thin and soft structures with spatial variations in material property and thickness. Mechanical behavior of heterogeneous membranes is not well understood, mainly due to the difficulty in obtaining accurate and reliable material property data. To understand the mechanical behavior of these materials, accurate and efficient characterization methods for heterogeneous membranes are needed. Here, in this paper, an inverse method based on machine learning is developed to efficiently extract mechanical properties from full-field strain distributions. This approach is demonstrated on a flat heterogeneous membrane with uniform thickness formed by up to four linear elastic synthetic materials in a grid arrangement, and deforming in a moderate strain range (true strain ~10%). The results show that the machine learning method achieves accuracy comparable to the traditional inverse finite element method, and is 6 orders of magnitude faster in the demonstrated case studies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learned Hückel Theory: Interfacing Physics and Deep Neural Networks

The Hückel Hamiltonian is an incredibly simple tight-binding model known for its ability to capture qualitative physics phenomena arising from electron interactions in molecules and materials. Part of its simplicity arises from using only two types of empirically fit physics-motivated parameters: the first describes the orbital energies on each atom and the second describes electronic interactions and bonding between atoms. By replacing these empirical parameters with machine-learned dynamic values, we vastly increase the accuracy of the extended Hückel model. The dynamic values are generated with a deep neural network, which is trained to reproduce orbital energies and densities derived from density functional theory. The resulting model retains interpretability, while the deep neural network parameterization is smooth and accurate and reproduces insightful features of the original empirical parameterization. Altogether, this work shows the promise of utilizing machine learning to formulate simple, accurate, and dynamically parameterized physics models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning for reactor power monitoring with limited labeled data

Real-time reactor power monitoring is critical for a variety of nuclear applications, spanning safety, security, operations, and maintenance. While machine learning methods have shown promise in monitoring reactor power levels, there is limited research on their efficacy in label-starved environments. The goal of this work is to assess the feasibility of classifying nuclear reactor power level using multisource data in scenarios with limited labels. Data were collected using low-resolution multisensors at four nuclear reactor facilities: two large research reactors and two TRIGA reactors. Within each pair, one reactor dataset served as the source and the other as the target in a transfer learning paradigm. Twenty-three supervised models were trained on labeled sequences of magnetic field and acceleration data from each of the target sites. Self-learning and transfer learning methods were applied to the top performing models to assess their classification performance with increasing amounts of labeled data. While reactor power level classification was achieved with a Matthews Correlation Coefficient of up to 0.739 ± 0.003 and 0.622 ± 0.009 with only 400 sequences per power state for the large research reactor and TRIGA target sites, respectively, self-learning and transfer learning leveraging source site data did not improve target classification performance. These findings suggest that alternative methods, such as higher sensitivity sensors, digital twins, or the use of physics-informed models, are required to enable high-performance classification in machine learning approaches to reactor monitoring with a dearth of target ground truth.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning for nonintrusive model order reduction of the parametric inviscid transonic flow past an airfoil

Fluid flow in the transonic regime finds relevance in aerospace engineering, particularly in the design of commercial air transportation vehicles. Computational fluid dynamics models of transonic flow for aerospace applications are computationally expensive to solve because of the high degrees of freedom as well as the coupled nature of the conservation laws. While these issues pose a bottleneck for the use of such models in aerospace design, computational costs can be significantly minimized by constructing special, structure-preserving surrogate models called reduced-order models. In this work, we propose a machine learning method to construct reduced-order models via deep neural networks and we demonstrate its ability to preserve accuracy with a significantly lower computational cost. In addition, our machine learning methodology is physics-informed and constrained through the utilization of an interpretable encoding by way of proper orthogonal decomposition. Application to the inviscid transonic flow past the RAE2822 airfoil under varying freestream Mach numbers and angles of attack, as well as airfoil shape parameters with a deforming mesh, shows that the proposed approach adapts to high-dimensional parameter variation well. Notably, the proposed framework precludes the knowledge of numerical operators utilized in the data generation phase, thereby demonstrating its potential utility in the fast exploration of design space for diverse engineering applications. Comparison against a projection-based nonintrusive model order reduction method demonstrates that the proposed approach produces comparable accuracy and yet is orders of magnitude computationally cheap to evaluate, despite being agnostic to the physics of the problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Detecting Arsenic Contamination Using Satellite Imagery and Machine Learning

Arsenic, a potent carcinogen and neurotoxin, affects over 200 million people globally. Current detection methods are laborious, expensive, and unscalable, being difficult to implement in developing regions and during crises such as COVID-19. This study attempts to determine if a relationship exists between soil’s hyperspectral data and arsenic concentration using NASA’s Hyperion satellite. It is the first arsenic study to use satellite-based hyperspectral data and apply a classification approach. Four regression machine learning models are tested to determine this correlation in soil with bare land cover. Raw data are converted to reflectance, problematic atmospheric influences are removed, characteristic wavelengths are selected, and four noise reduction algorithms are tested. The combination of data augmentation, Genetic Algorithm, Second Derivative Transformation, and Random Forest regression (R 2 =0.840 and normalized root mean squared error (re-scaled to [0,1]) = 0.122) shows strong correlation, performing better than past models despite using noisier satellite data (versus lab-processed samples). Three binary classification machine learning models are then applied to identify high-risk shrub-covered regions in ten U.S. states, achieving strong accuracy (=0.693) and F1-score (=0.728). Overall, these results suggest that such a methodology is practical and can provide a sustainable alternative to arsenic contamination detection.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2025

yProv4ML: Effortless provenance tracking for machine learning systems

The rapid growth in interest in deep learning and foundation models (FMs) in particular, has attracted the attention of a diverse range of researchers thanks to their generalization ability. However, the advent of these techniques has also brought to light the lack of transparency and rigor in the way development is pursued. In particular, the inability to determine the number of epochs and other hyperparameters in advance presents challenges in identifying the best model. To address this challenge, machine learning frameworks such as MLFlow can automate the collection of this type of information. However, these tools capture data using proprietary formats and pose little attention to lineage. This paper proposes yProv4ML, a framework that captures provenance information generated during machine learning processes in PROV-JSON format, with minimal code modification.

Machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Science Gateway for the Repeatable Analysis of Machine Learning Predicted Gravity Anomalies

In recent years, deep learning has become an increasingly popular alternative for modeling in geoscience applications due to its scalability and efficiency. However, the interpretability, compute, data volume, and hyperparameter tuning requirements of deep learning models make development and monitoring difficult. Furthermore, model explainability and communicating results obtained by these models to users or domain experts is a challenge, as domain experts in geoscience also need to have a deep understanding of how those models function in order to support their scientific works. Here, we describe a science gateway and machine learning pipeline for predicting gravity anomalies from geophysical data. The gateway, built on open-source technologies, provides a holistic view of the pipeline through interactive visualizations aimed at enabling efficient exploratory data analysis. The repeatability, reproducibility, and monitoring capabilities of this overall system allow us to iterate and analyze at scale. Using this pipeline and gateway, we can repeatedly produce accurate high-resolution gravity anomaly datasets. By describing the underlying technologies, implementation, and results, here we provide a foundation for the broader adoption of science gateways into cross-cutting geoscience and machine learning research projects as a means to improve the scientific discovery and collaboration in the geophysics and computational sciences community.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modular performance prediction for scientific workflows using Machine Learning

Scientific workflows provide an opportunity for declarative computational experiment design in an intuitive and efficient way. A distributed workflow is typically executed on a variety of resources, and it uses a variety of computational algorithms or tools to achieve the desired outcomes. Such a variety imposes additional complexity in scheduling these workflows on large scale computers. As computation becomes more distributed, insights into expected workload that a workflow presents become critical for effective resource allocation. In this paper, we present a modular framework that leverages Machine Learning for creating precise performance predictions of a workflow. The central idea is to partition a workflow in such a way that makes the task of forecasting each atomic unit manageable and gives us a way to combine the individual predictions efficiently. We recognize a combination of an executable and a specific physical resource as a single module. This gives us a handle to characterize workload and machine power as a single unit of prediction. Overall, our modular technique of creating atomic modules and deployment of longest-path approach to estimate workflow performance, allows the framework to adapt to highly complex nested directed acyclic workflows and scale to new scenarios, since it does not make assumptions of underlying workflow structure. We present performance estimation results of independent workflow modules executed on the XSEDE SDSC Comet cluster using various Machine Learning algorithms. The results provide insights into the behavior and effectiveness of different algorithms in the context of scientific workflow performance prediction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GeoNEX-ML: A Machine Learning System for Geostationary Satellite Imagery

Improved capabilities of earth monitoring satellites are enabling a wide range of studies on the environmental effects of climate change, often leveraging the recent advancements in machine learning. At the same time, the new capabilities, including higher spatial resolution and temporal frequency, are expanding the amount of data generated at exponential rates. Further, a large majority of archived datasets generated by scientific processing is never used. This motivates the development of an efficient machine learning system for end-to-end processing of multi-level satellite datasets, from level 1 top of atmosphere observations to user friendly environmental variables of interest. Using current generation geostationary satellites GOES-16/17 (NOAA/NASA), Himawari-8/9 (JAXA), and GK-2A (Korea), we present an interchangeable set of machine models to perform spectral adjustment, physical model emulation, LEO-GEO emulation, and optical flow in a high performance computing environment. We use these tools to generate consistent virtual observations across sensors, perform atmospheric correction and cloud detection, and estimate land surface temperature and atmospheric winds. This approach aims to improve the robustness of remotely sensed data processing by learning from diverse sets of observations while enabling near real-time and on-demand capabilities.

Geostationary satellites↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Manufacturing Data and Machine Learning Platform: Enabling Real-time Monitoring and Control of Scientific Experiments via IoT

IoT devices and sensor networks present new opportunities for measuring, monitoring, and guiding scientific experiments. Sensors, cameras, and instruments can be combined to provide previously unachievable insights into the state of ongoing experiments. However, IoT devices can vary greatly in the type, volume, and velocity of data they generate, making it challenging to fully realize this potential. Indeed, synergizing diverse IoT data streams in near-real time can require the use of machine learning (ML). In addition, new tools and technologies are required to facilitate the collection, aggregation, and manipulation of sensor data in order to simplify the application of ML models and in turn, fully realize the utility of IoT devices in laboratories. Here we will demonstrate how the use of the Argonne-developed Manufacturing Data and Machine Learning (MDML) platform can analyze and use IoT devices in a manufacturing experiment. MDML is designed to standardize the research and operational environment for advanced data analytics and AI-enabled automated process optimization by providing the infrastructure to integrate AI in cyber-physical systems for in situ analysis. We will show that MDML is capable of processing diverse IoT data streams, using multiple computing resources, and integrating ML models to guide an experiment.

Machine Learning↗

DOE OSTI2021

A novel machine learning based identification of potential adopter of rooftop solar photovoltaics

With the proliferation of rooftop solar photovoltaic installations, there is a need to proactively predict consumer potential for solar photovoltaic adoption, for improved electric utility planning and operation. Traditional analytical modeling approaches are limited to a few survey features and a larger part of the survey would remain untouched by the decision model. This article presents a novel, data-driven modeling approach that strategically prunes a large set of consumer profile features using a machine learning framework to train a model for predicting potential solar adoption. The approach utilizes the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree model through a Light Gradient Boosting framework that improves significantly over the poor prediction accuracy of the existing approaches. Model training using focal-loss based supervision is used to overcome the difficulty in identifying the potential adopters that is inherent in conventional data-driven models. In addition, to overcome possible data sparsity in a limited survey sample, a Generative Adversarial Network is presented to create synthetic user samples and its effectiveness on model performance is assessed. A Bayesian optimization approach is used to systematically arrive at the hyperparameters of the proposed model. Validation of the presented approach on a survey data collected by the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association in Virginia in 2018 demonstrates the excellent predictive capability of the machine learning based approach to modeling solar adoption reliably.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decoding substrate specificity determining factors in glycosyltransferase-B enzymes – insights from machine learning models

Substrate specificity is an essential characteristic of any enzyme's function and an understanding of the factors that determine this specificity is crucial for enzyme engineering. Unlike the structure of an enzyme which is directly impacted by its sequence, substrate specificity as an enzyme attribute involves a rather indirect relationship with sequence as it also depends on structural aspects that dictate substrate accessibility and active site dynamics. In this study, we explore the performance of classifier-based machine learning models trained on curated sequence and structural data for a class of glycosyltransferases (GTs), namely GT-Bs, to understand their substrate specificity determining factors. GTs enable the transfer of sugar moieties to other biomolecules such as oligosaccharides or proteins and are found in all kingdoms of life. In plants, GTs participate in the biosynthesis of plant cell wall biopolymers (e.g.: hemicelluloses and pectins) and are an integral part of the enzymatic machinery that enables the storage of carbon and energy as plant biomass. To elucidate the substrate specificity of uncharacterized GT-Bs, we constructed multi-label machine learning models (Support Vector Classifier, K-Nearest Neighbors, Gaussian Naïve-Bayes, Random Forest) that incorporate both sequence and structural features. These models achieve good predictive accuracies on test datasets. However, despite our use of structural information, we highlight that there is further scope for improvement in training these models to draw interpretable relationships between sequence, structure and substrate specificity determining motifs in GT-Bs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Data-Management Infrastructure Needs for Production Use of Advanced Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence: Tri-Lab Level II Milestone (8554)

A robust data-management infrastructure is a key enabler for National Security Enterprise (NSE) capabilities in artificial intelligence and machine learning. This document describes efforts from a team of researchers at Sandia National Laboratories, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Livermore National Laboratory to complete ASC Level II milestone #8854 “Assessment of Data-Management Infrastructure Needs for Production use of Advanced Machine learning and Artificial Intelligence.”

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2022

Use of Machine Learning to Reduce Uncertainties in Particle Number Concentration and Aerosol Indirect Radiative Forcing Predicted by Climate Models

The radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols associated with aerosol–cloud interactions (RF(sub aci)) remains the largest source of uncertainty in climate prediction. The calculation of particle number concentration (PNC), one of the critical parameters affecting RF(sub aci), is generally simplified in climate models. Here we employ outputs from long-term (30-years) simulations of a global size-resolved (sectional) aerosol microphysics model and a machine-learning tool to develop a Random Forest Regression Model (RFRM) for PNC. We have implemented the PNC RFRM in GISS-ModelE2.1 with a mass-based One-Moment Aerosol module, which is one of CMIP6 models. Compared to the default setting, the GISS-ModelE2.1 simulation based on RFRM reduces the changes of cloud droplet number concentration associated with anthropogenic emissions, and decreases the RF(sub aci) from −1.46 W⋅m(exp −2) to −1.11 W⋅m(exp −2). This work highlights a promising approach based on machine learning to reduce uncertainties of climate models in predicting PNC and RF(sub aci) without compromising their computing efficiency.

Radiative forcing↗

DOE OSTI2022

Prospects for Machine Learning and Pulse Shaping on the Scorpius Accelerator [Poster]

The Advanced Sources and Detectors (ASD) project aims to build Scorpius, a multi pulse linear induction accelerator capable of delivering a 1.4 kA electron beam at energies up to 24 MeV. One of the primary advancements of Scorpius is the use of solid state pulsed power (SSPP) to provide flexibility in pulse shaping by independently triggering 45 individual stages stacked in each of 984 line replaceable units (LRU), with 168 LRUs dedicated to the injector. By leveraging circuit modeling of each LRU stage, a machine learning model of the SSPP will be developed to allow for optimization of the pulse shape, including pulse flattening and reflection mitigation. Particle-in-cell simulations of Scorpius have, for example, demonstrated that reducing reflections during multi-pulse operation mitigates beam spill by preventing the production of off-energy electrons between pulses, thereby abating stimulated ion desorption from the wall and beam charge neutralization. This machine learning model will be validated and tuned with experimental data collected from the Scorpius injector and Integrated Test Stand

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Real-time optimization of multi-cell industrial evaporative cooling towers using machine learning and particle swarm optimization

Existing electrical generating stations must operate with greater flexibility due to increasing renewable energy penetration on the electrical grid, and many coal-fired power stations have transitioned away from baseload operation to load-following operation to aid in grid stability. In cases where multiple independently controlled cooling tower cells are used in parallel for the cooling purposes of such stations, there is an opportunity to increase plant efficiency through data-driven optimization across their full load ranges. This work presents a novel application of real-time optimization using machine learning and particle swarm optimization on a multi-cell induced-draft cooling tower servicing a coal-fired power station under variable load. This is the first work to demonstrate simultaneous optimization of a multi-cell cooling tower, in addition to using machine learning for closed-loop control on a cooling tower. A novel control configuration is presented that ensures original control logic is not adversely affected and that the overall plant process is not disrupted using only existing hardware and operational data. To verify this methodology, the 12 independent cooling tower cells are simulated in parallel using historic operating data to demonstrate the effectiveness of real-time optimization compared to current practice. An artificial neural network is trained to predict overall cooling tower power consumption using only operational data and ambient conditions with an R2 value of greater than 0.96. The real-time optimization using particle swarm yields 6.7% annual energy usage savings compared to current practices, although the extent of the real-time savings varies greatly with both plant load and environmental conditions. This is particularly significant for a variable load situation because frequent ramping typically results in reduced overall efficiency. Furthermore, this proposed AI-based solution presents an opportunity to improve the overall heat rate of a load-following coal-fired power plant without the need to perform extensive first-principles modeling or add additional hardware to the cooling tower, resulting in more resources conserved and less overall emissions per unit of electricity generated.

42 ENGINEERING↗