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Human Error In Complex Systems

Report presents results of research aimed at understanding causes of human error in such complex systems as aircraft, nuclear powerplants, and chemical processing plants. Research considered both slips (errors of action) and mistakes (errors of intention), and influence of workload on them. Results indicated that: humans respond to conditions in which errors expected by attempting to reduce incidence of errors; and adaptation to conditions potent influence on human behavior in discretionary situations.

Morris, Nancy M.↗

A Typology for Characterizing Human Action in MultiSector Dynamics Models

The role of individual and collective human agency is increasingly recognized as a prominent and arguably paramount determinant in shaping the behavior, trajectory, and vulnerability of multisector systems. This human influence operates at multiple scales: from short-term (hourly to daily) to long-term (annually to centennial) timescales, and from the local to the global, pushing systems towards either desirable or undesirable outcomes. However, the effort to represent human systems in multisector models has been fragmented across philosophical, methodological, and disciplinary lines. To cohere insights across diverse modeling approaches, we present a new typology for classifying how human actors are represented in the broad suite of coupled human-natural system models that are applied in MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) research. The typology conceptualizes a “sector” as a system-of-systems that includes a diverse group of human actors, defined across individual to collective social levels, involved in governing, provisioning, and utilizing products, goods, or services towards some human end. We trace the salient features of modeled representations of human systems by organizing the typology around three key questions: 1) Who are the modeled actors in MSD systems? 2) What are their modeled actions? 3) How and for what purpose are these actors and actions operationalized in a computational model? The typology is used to critically examine existing models and chart the frontier of future human systems modeling for MSD research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The circular bioeconomy: a driver for system integration

Background: Human and earth system modeling, traditionally centered on the interplay between the energy system and the atmosphere, are facing a paradigm shift. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s mandate for comprehensive, cross-sectoral climate action emphasizes avoiding the vulnerabilities of narrow sectoral approaches. Our study explores the circular bioeconomy, highlighting the intricate interconnections among agriculture, forestry, aquaculture, technological advancements, and ecological recycling. Collectively, these sectors play a pivotal role in supplying essential resources to meet the food, material, and energy needs of a growing global population. We pose the pertinent question of what it takes to integrate these multifaceted sectors into a new era of holistic systems thinking and planning. Results: The foundation for discussion is provided by a novel graphical representation encompassing statistical data on food, materials, energy flows, and circularity. This representation aids in constructing an inventory of technological advancements and climate actions that have the potential to significantly reshape the structure and scale of the economic metabolism in the coming decades. In this context, the three dominant mega-trends—population dynamics, economic developments, and the climate crisis—compel us to address the potential consequences of the identified actions, all of which fall under the four categories of substitution, efficiency, sufficiency, and reliability measures. Substitution and efficiency measures currently dominate systems modeling. Including novel bio-based processes and circularity aspects might require only expanded system boundaries. Conversely, paradigm shifts in systems engineering are expected to center on sufficiency and reliability actions. Effectively assessing the impact of sufficiency measures will necessitate substantial progress in inter- and transdisciplinary collaboration, primarily due to their non-technological nature. In addition, placing emphasis on modeling the reliability and resilience of transformation pathways represents a distinct and emerging frontier that highlights the significance of an integrated network of networks. Conclusions: Existing and emerging circular bioeconomy practices can serve as prime examples of system integration. These practices facilitate the interconnection of complex biomass supply chain networks with other networks encompassing feedstock-independent renewable power, hydrogen, CO 2 , water, and other biotic, abiotic, and intangible resources. Elevating the prominence of these connectors will empower policymakers to steer the amplification of synergies and mitigation of tradeoffs among systems, sectors, and goals.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Minimizing Human Risk: Human Performance Models in the Space Human Factors and Habitability and Behavioral Health and Performance Elements

Human space exploration has never been more exciting than it is today. Human presence to outer worlds is becoming a reality as humans are leveraging much of our prior knowledge to the new mission of going to Mars. Exploring the solar system at greater distances from Earth than ever before will possess some unique challenges, which can be overcome thanks to the advances in modeling and simulation technologies. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is at the forefront of exploring our solar system. NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) focuses on discovering the best methods and technologies that support safe and productive human space travel in the extreme and harsh space environment. HRP uses various methods and approaches to answer questions about the impact of long duration missions on the human in space including: gravity's impact on the human body, isolation and confinement on the human, hostile environments impact on the human, space radiation, and how the distance is likely to impact the human. Predictive models are included in the HRP research portfolio as these models provide valuable insights into human-system operations. This paper will provide an overview of NASA's HRP and will present a number of projects that have used modeling and simulation to provide insights into human-system issues (e.g. automation, habitat design, schedules) in anticipation of space exploration.

space human factors and habitability↗

Minimizing Human Risk: Human Performance Models in the Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Element

Human space exploration has never been more exciting than it is today. Human presence to outer worlds is becoming a reality as humans are leveraging much of our prior knowledge to the new mission of going to Mars. Exploring the solar system at greater distances from Earth than ever before will possess some unique challenges, which can be overcome thanks to the advances in modeling and simulation technologies. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is at the forefront of exploring our solar system. NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) focuses on discovering the best methods and technologies that support safe and productive human space travel in the extreme and harsh space environment. HRP uses various methods and approaches to answer questions about the impact of long duration missions on the human in space including: gravitys impact on the human body, isolation and confinement on the human, hostile environments impact on the human, space radiation, and how the distance is likely to impact the human. Predictive models are included in the HRP research portfolio as these models provide valuable insights into human-system operations. This paper will provide an overview of NASA's HRP and will present a number of projects that have used modeling and simulation to provide insights into human-system issues (e.g. automation, habitat design, schedules) in anticipation of space exploration.

human systems integrations↗

Compounding Uncertainties in Economic and Population Growth Increase Tail Risks for Relevant Outcomes Across Sectors

Understanding the long-term effects of population and GDP changes requires a multisectoral and regional understanding of the coupled human-Earth system, as the long-term evolution of this coupled system is influenced by human decisions and the Earth system. This study investigates the impact of compounding economic and population growth uncertainties on long-term multisectoral outcomes. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to explore the influence of compounding and feedback between future GDP and population growth on four key sectors: final energy consumption, water withdrawal, staple food prices, and CO 2 emissions. The results show that uncertainties in GDP and population compound, resulting in a magnification of tail risks for outcomes across sectors and regions. Compounding uncertainties significantly impact metrics such as CO 2 emissions and final energy consumption, particularly at the upper tail at both global and regional levels. However, the impact of staple food prices and water withdrawal depends on regional factors. Additionally, an alternative low-carbon transition scenario could compound uncertainties and increase tail risk, particularly in staple food prices, highlighting the influence of emergent constraints on land availability and food-energy competition for land use. The findings underscore the importance of considering and adequately accounting for compounding uncertainties in key drivers of multisectoral systems to enhance our comprehensive understanding of the complex nature of multisectoral systems. The paper provides valuable insights into the potential implications of compounding uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Project 5S: A Safe Stepping Stone into the Solar System

The human exploration program, at least in NASA, has been directed to move beyond the Moon and travel on a flexible path into the solar system. Reaching a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) is a major human space flight goal but such missions have tight times and life-support requirements that require huge steps from current capabilities. An objective between the Moon and a NEA is needed. Example interim objectives are the Lagrangian points in either the Sun-Earth or Earth-Moon (EM) system. The nearest of these points beyond the Moon is E-M L2. The Lagrangian points are empty (as far as we know). As objectives for human flight,it has been argued that they suffer from a lack of public interest and of meaningful objectives for astronaut operations. To provide a physical target, a robotic spacecraft could retrieve a small NEA and bring it to a Lagrangian or other nearer-Earth point to be accessed and utilized for human-mission objectives. This paper reports on the results of a recently completed study of an asteroid retrieval mission sponsored by the Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) at the California Institute of Technology. The study included an evaluation of potential targets, mission objectives, mission and system design, and potential capture mechanisms. The study concluded that, while challenging, there are no fundamental show stoppers and that such a mission would be possible with technology expected to be available in this decade. The final destination selected (for safety and mission operations) was high lunar orbit. Two options for target selection are considered: (i) retrieving a small (7 meter) NEA with a mass of order 500,000 kg, and (ii) taking a similar size boulder of a large known carbonaceous NEA. Several areas of technology and program requirements were identified, but the most important conclusion was that this approach enables meeting a goal of humans going to a NEA by the mid-2020s. The advantages and benefits for human exploration are considerable as are the advances that would be made in space-resource utilization and science for further exploration and development of the solar system. The combination of the robotic mission to move the asteroid and the human mission to go to its new destination and conduct astronaut operations there would provide a boost and purpose to human space flight.

asteroid retrieval↗

Human support issues and systems for the space exploration initiative: Results from Project Outreach

The analyses and evaluations of the Human Support panel are discussed. The Human Support panel is one of eight panels created by RAND to screen and analyze submissions to the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) Outreach Program. Submissions to the Human Support panel were in the following areas: radiation protection; microgravity; life support systems; medical care; and human factors (behavior and performance).

Aroesty, J.↗

Incorporating the Role(s) of Human Actors in Complex System Design for Safety and Security

Traditional systems engineering demonstrates the importance of customer needs in scoping and defining design requirements; yet, in practice, other human stakeholders are often absent from early lifecycle phases. Human factors are often omitted in practice when evaluating and down-selecting design options due to constraints such as time, money, access to user populations, or difficulty in proving system robustness through the inclusion of human behaviors. Advances in systems engineering increasingly include non-technical influences into the design, deployment, operations, and maintenance of interacting components to achieve common performance objectives. Furthermore, such advances highlight the need to better account for the various roles of human actors to achieve desired performance outcomes in complex systems. Many of these efforts seek to infuse lessons and concepts from human factors (enhanced decision-making through Crew Resource Management), systems safety (Rasmussen's “drift toward danger”) and organization science (Giddens' recurrent human acts leading to emergent behaviors) into systems engineering to better understand how socio-technical interactions impact emergent system performance. Safety and security are examples of complex system performance outcomes that are directly impacted by varying roles of human actors. Using security performance of high consequence facilities as a representative use case, this article will outline the System Context Lenses to understand how to include various roles of human actors into systems engineering design. Several exemplar applications of this organizing lenses will be summarized and used to highlight more generalized insights for the broader systems engineering community.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dynamic Isotope Power System Design Considerations for Human Exploration of the Moon and Mars

Dynamic Isotope Power System (DIPS) alternatives for the surface mission elements associated with a lunar base and subsequent manned Mars expedition were investigated, emphasizing the issue of how the mission environment affects system design. It was found that radiation shielding for human-rated applications has a greater impact on DIPS than any other factor.

Bents, D. J.↗

Exploration Systems Exterior Lighting Design Guidance

Humans are returning to the Moon — this time, to stay. NASA has selected a location that maximizes line-of-sight communication with Earth, solar visibility, and access to water ice: the Lunar South Pole (LSP). While the Sun is more consistently in the lunar sky at the poles, it never rises more than 7° above the horizon in the target landing regions. This harsh lighting environment--never experienced during the Apollo missions or in human spaceflight--presents an engineering challenge: Support and protect functional vision. The human vision system, which despite having a high-dynamic range, cannot see well into bright light and cannot adapt quickly from bright to dark or vice versa. The design of helmets, windows, and lighting solutions must work in a complementary fashion to achieve a system of lighting and functional vision support that enables crews to see into darkness while their eyes are light-adapted and see in bright light while still dark-adapted that protects their eyes from injury. This report brings together information and identifies gaps related to LSP Natural environment (topology, regolith, temperature, lighting, and so forth), NASA historical experience exploring the Moon, human vision capabilities and needs, exploration operations, simulation capabilities and needs (for design verification, training, mission planning, and so forth) and existing engineering, safety, medical and performance requirements related to support human exploration.

Simulation↗

Destination Deimos: A Design Reference Architecture for Initial Human Exploration of the Mars System

The two biggest challenges to successful human operations in interplanetary space are flight dynamics, constrained by the cold hard physics of the rocket equation, and bioastronautics, the psychophysiological realities of human adaptation, or lack thereof, to the deep space environment. Without substantial innovation in project/mission architecture and vehicle design, human exploration of the Mars system could be problematic for decades. Although a human landing on Mars is inevitable, humans-in-the-loop telerobotic exploration from the outer Martian moon Deimos is the best way to begin. Precursor robotic missions for reconnaissance and local site preparation will be required.

Logan, James S.↗

Olivine Dissolution in Simulated Lung and Gastric Fluid as an Analog to the Behavior of Lunar Particulate Matter Inside the Human Respiratory and Gastrointestinal Systems

With the Artemis III mission scheduled to land humans on the Moon in 2025, work must be done to understand the hazards lunar dust inhalation would pose to humans. In this study, San Carlos olivine was used as an analog of lunar olivine, a common component of lunar dust. Olivine was dissolved in a flow-through apparatus in both simulated lung fluid and 0.1 M HCl (simulated gastric fluid) over a period of approximately 2 weeks at physiological temperature, 37°C. Effluent samples were collected periodically and analyzed for pH, iron, silicon, and magnesium ion concentrations. The dissolution rate data derived from our measurements allow us to estimate that an inhaled 1.0 μm diameter olivine particle would take approximately 24 years to dissolve in the human lungs and approximately 3 weeks to dissolve in gastric fluid. Results revealed that inhaled olivine particles may generate the toxic chemical, hydroxyl radical, for up to 5–6 days in lung fluid. Olivine dissolved in 0.1 M HCl for 2 weeks transformed to an amorphous silica-rich solid plus the ferric iron oxy-hydroxide ferrihydrite. Olivine dissolved in simulated lung fluid shows no detectable change in composition or crystallinity. Equilibrium thermodynamic models indicate that olivine in the human lungs can precipitate secondary minerals with fibrous crystal structures that have the potential to induce detrimental health effects similar to asbestos exposure. Our work indicates that inhaled lunar dust containing olivine can settle in the human lungs for years and could induce long-term potential health effects like that of silicosis.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Considerations for Implementing Voice-Controlled Spacecraft Systems Through a Human-Centered Design Approach

As computational power and speech recognition algorithms improve, the consumer market will see better-performing speech recognition applications. The cell phone and Internet-related service industry have further enhanced speech recognition applications using artificial intelligence and statistical data-mining techniques. These improvements to speech recognition technology (SRT) may one day help astronauts on future deep space human missions that require control of complex spacecraft systems or spacesuit applications by voice. Though SRT and more advanced speech recognition techniques show promise, use of this technology for a space application such as vehicle/habitat/spacesuit requires careful considerations. There are still recognition challenges to overcome such as background noise, human speech variability, and task loading. However, implemented correctly, a voice-controlled spacecraft system (VCSS) can provide a useful, natural and efficient form of human-machine communications during complex tasks such as when the hands and eyes are busy or as an aid for vehicle situational awareness inquiries or collaborative human-robot tasks. This document provides considerations and guidance for the use of SRT in VCSS applications for space missions, specifically in command-and-control (C2) applications where the commanding is user-initiated. First, current SRT limitations as known at the time of this report are given. Then, highlights of SRT used in the space program provide the reader with a history of some of the human spaceflight applications and research. Next, an overview of the speech production process and the intrinsic variations of speech are provided. Finally, general guidance and considerations are given for development of a VCSS using a human-centered design approach for space applications that includes vocabulary selection and performance testing, as well as VCSS considerations for C2 dialogue management design, feedback, error handling, and evaluation/usability testing. Available from

Salazar, George A.↗

Science on the International Space Station: Stepping Stones for Exploration

This viewgraph presentation reviews the state of science research on the International Space Station (ISS). The shuttle and other missions that have delivered science research facilities to the ISS are shown. The different research facilities provided by both NASA and partner organizations available for use and future facilities are reviewed. The science that has been already completed is discussed. The research facilitates the Vision for Space Exploration, in Human Life Sciences, Biological Sciences, Materials Science, Fluids Science, Combustion Science, and all other sciences. The ISS Focus for NASA involves: Astronaut health and countermeasure, development to protect crews from the space environment during long duration voyages, Testing research and technology developments for future exploration missions, Developing and validating operational procedures for long-duration space missions. The ISS Medical Project (ISSMP) address both space systems and human systems. ISSMP has been developed to maximize the utilization of ISS to obtain solutions to the human health and performance problems and the associated mission risks of exploration class missions. Including complete programmatic review with medical operations (space medicine/flight surgeons) to identify: (1) evidence base on risks (2) gap analysis.

Robinson, Julie A.↗

Monitors Track Vital Signs for Fitness and Safety

Have you ever felt nauseous reading a book in the back seat of a car? Or woken from a deep sleep feeling disoriented, unsure which way is up? Momentary mixups like these happen when the sensory systems that track the body's orientation in space become confused. (In the case of the backseat bookworm, the conflict arises when the reader s inner ear, part of the body s vestibular system, senses the car s motion while her eyes are fixed on the stationary pages of the book.) Conditions like motion sickness are common on Earth, but they also present a significant challenge to astronauts in space. Human sensory systems use the pull of gravity to help determine orientation. In the microgravity environment onboard the International Space Station, for example, the body experiences a period of confusion before it adapts to the new circumstances. (In space, even the body s proprioceptive system, which tells the brain where the arms and legs are oriented without the need for visual confirmation, goes haywire, meaning astronauts sometimes lose track of where their limbs are when they are not moving them.) This Space Adaptation Syndrome affects a majority of astronauts, even experienced ones, causing everything from mild disorientation to nausea to severe vomiting. "It can be quite debilitating," says William Toscano, a research scientist in NASA s Ames Research Center Psychophysiology Laboratory, part of the Center s Human Systems Integration Division. "When this happens, as you can imagine, work proficiency declines considerably." Since astronauts cannot afford to be distracted or incapacitated during critical missions, NASA has explored various means for preventing and countering motion sickness in space, including a range of drug treatments. Many effective motion sickness drugs, however, cause undesirable side effects, such as drowsiness. Toscano and his NASA colleague, Patricia Cowings, have developed a different approach: Utilizing biofeedback training methods, the pair can teach astronauts, military pilots, and others susceptible to motion sickness to self-regulate their own physiological responses and suppress the unpleasant symptoms. This NASA-patented method invented by Cowings is called the Autogenic Feedback Training Exercise (ATFE), and several studies have demonstrated its promise

Source record↗

The implementation of the Human Exploration Demonstration Project (HEDP), a systems technology testbed

The Human Exploration Demonstration Project (HEDP) is an ongoing task at the NASA's Ames Research Center to address the advanced technology requirements necessary to implement an integrated working and living environment for a planetary surface habitat. The integrated environment consists of life support systems, physiological monitoring of project crew, a virtual environment work station, and centralized data acquisition and habitat systems health monitoring. The HEDP is an integrated technology demonstrator, as well as an initial operational testbed. There are several robotic systems operational in a simulated planetary landscape external to the habitat environment, to provide representative work loads for the crew. This paper describes the evolution of the HEDP from initial concept to operational project; the status of the HEDP after two years; the final facilities composing the HEDP; the project's role as a NASA Ames Research Center systems technology testbed; and the interim demonstration scenarios that have been run to feature the developing technologies in 1993.

Rosen, Robert↗