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DOE OSTI2021

Gaia EDR3 Reveals the Substructure and Complicated Star Formation History of the Greater Taurus-Auriga Star-forming Complex

The Taurus-Auriga complex is the prototypical low-mass star-forming region, and provides a unique testbed of the star formation process, which left observable imprints on the spatial, kinematic, and temporal structure of its stellar population. Taurus’s rich observational history has uncovered peculiarities that suggest a complicated star-forming event, such as members at large distances from the molecular clouds and evidence of an age spread. With Gaia, an in-depth study of the Taurus census is possible, to confirm membership, identify substructure, and reconstruct its star formation history. We have compiled an expansive census of the greater Taurus region, identifying spatial subgroups and confirming that Taurus is substructured across stellar density. There are two populations of subgroups: clustered groups near the clouds and sparse groups spread throughout the region. The sparse groups comprise Taurus’s distributed population, which is on average older than the population near the clouds, and hosts subpopulations up to 15 Myr old. The ages of the clustered groups increase with distance, suggesting that the current star formation was triggered from behind. Still, the region is kinematically coherent, and its velocity structure reflects an initial turbulent spectrum similar to Larson’s Law that has been modified by dynamical relaxation. Overall, Taurus has a complicated star formation history, with at least two epochs of star formation featuring both clustered and distributed modes. Given the correlations between age and spatial distribution, Taurus might be part of a galaxy-scale star-forming event that can only begin to be understood in the Gaia era.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probing the hadronic nature of the gamma-ray emission associated with Westerlund 2

ABSTRACT Star-forming regions have been proposed as potential Galactic cosmic ray accelerators for decades. Cosmic ray acceleration can be probed through observations of gamma-rays produced in inelastic proton–proton collisions at GeV and TeV energies. In this paper, we analyse more than 11 yr of Fermi–LAT data from the direction of Westerlund 2, one of the most massive and best-studied star-forming regions in our Galaxy. In particular, we investigate the characteristics of the bright pulsar PSR J1023–5746 that dominates the gamma-ray emission below a few GeV at the position of Westerlund 2 and the underlying extended source FGES J1023.3–5747. The analysis results in a clear identification of FGES J1023.3–5747 as the GeV counterpart of the TeV source HESS J1023-575, through its morphological and spectral properties. This identification provides new clues about the origin of the HESS J1023-575 gamma-ray emission, favouring a hadronic origin of the emission, powered by Westerlund 2, rather than a leptonic origin related to either the pulsar wind nebula associated with PSR J1023–5746 or the cluster itself. This result indirectly supports the hypothesis that star-forming regions can contribute to the cosmic ray sea observed in our Galaxy.

Mestre, Enrique↗

DOE OSTI2024

SPT-SZ MCMF: an extension of the SPT-SZ catalogue over the DES region

We present an extension to a Sunyaev–Zel’dovich Effect (SZE) selected cluster catalogue based on observations from the South Pole Telescope (SPT); this catalogue extends to lower signal to noise than the previous SPT–SZ catalogue and therefore includes lower mass clusters. Optically derived redshifts, centres, richnesses, and morphological parameters together with catalogue contamination and completeness statistics are extracted using the multicomponent matched filter (MCMF) algorithm applied to the S/N > 4 SPT–SZ candidate list and the Dark Energy Survey (DES) photometric galaxy catalogue. The main catalogue contains 811 sources above S/N = 4, has 91 per cent purity, and is 95 per cent complete with respect to the original SZE selection. It contains in total 50 per cent more clusters and twice as many clusters above z = 0.8 in comparison to the original SPT-SZ sample. The MCMF algorithm allows us to define subsamples of the desired purity with traceable impact on catalogue completeness. As an example, we provide two subsamples with S/N > 4.25 and S/N > 4.5 for which the sample contamination and cleaning-induced incompleteness are both as low as the expected Poisson noise for samples of their size. The subsample with S/N > 4.5 has 98 per cent purity and 96 per cent completeness and is part of our new combined SPT cluster and DES weak-lensing cosmological analysis. We measure the number of false detections in the SPT-SZ candidate list as function of S/N, finding that it follows that expected from assuming Gaussian noise, but with a lower amplitude compared to previous estimates from simulations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Astrophysics & cosmology from line intensity mapping vs galaxy surveys

Line intensity mapping (LIM) proposes to efficiently observe distant faint galaxies and map the matter density field at high redshift. Building upon the formalism in a companion paper, we first highlight the degeneracies between cosmology and astrophysics in LIM. We discuss what can be constrained from measurements of the mean intensity and redshift-space power spectra. With a sufficient spectral resolution, the large-scale redshift-space distortions of the 2-halo term can be measured, helping to break the degeneracy between bias and mean intensity. With a higher spectral resolution, measuring the small-scale redshift-space distortions disentangles the 1-halo and shot noise terms. Additionally, cross-correlations with external galaxy catalogs or lensing surveys further break degeneracies. We derive requirements for experiments similar to SPHEREx, HETDEX, CDIM, COMAP and CONCERTO. We then revisit the question of the optimality of the LIM observables, compared to galaxy detection, for astrophysics and cosmology. We use a matched filter to compute the luminosity detection threshold for individual sources. We show that LIM contains information about galaxies too faint to detect, in the high-noise or high-confusion regimes. We quantify the sparsity and clustering bias of the detected sources and compare them to LIM, showing in which cases LIM is a better tracer of the matter density. We extend previous work by answering these questions as a function of Fourier scale, including for the first time the effect of cosmic variance, pixel-to-pixel correlations, luminosity-dependent clustering bias and redshift-space distortions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Outflow from Outer-arm Starburst in a Grazing Collision between Galaxies

Gemini NIFS K-band spectra and Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array {sup 12}CO J=1→0, HCO{sup +}, and 100 GHz continuum observations are used to study a bright starburst clump on an outer arm of the interacting galaxy NGC 2207. This clump emits 23% of the total 24 μm flux of the galaxy pair and has an optically opaque dust cone extending out of its 170 pc core. The measured CO accounts for the dark cone extinction if almost all the gas and dust there are in front of the star clusters. An associated approaching CO outflow has v {sub z} ~ 16 km s{sup -1}, an estimated molecular mass 8 × 10{sup 6} M {sub ⊙}, and rises to heights ~0.9 kpc. A receding CO outflow on the far side with v {sub z} ~ 28 km s{sup -1} is less extensive. The observed star formation in the core over 10 Myr can supply the dark cone kinetic energy of roughly 2 × 10{sup 52} erg via supernovae and stellar winds. Other signs of intense activity are a variable radio continuum, suggesting an embedded supernova or other outburst; X-ray emission possibly from an X-ray binary or intermediate-mass black hole, depending on the extinction; and Brγ and He i lines with 82 km s{sup -1} line widths and fluxes consistent with excitation by embedded O-type stars. According to previous models, the retrograde encounter suffered by NGC 2207 caused the loss of angular momentum. This compressed its outer disk. We suggest that the resulting inward crashing stream hit a massive H i clump on the preexisting spiral arm and triggered the observed starburst.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mitigation of DESI fiber assignment incompleteness effect on two-point clustering with small angular scale truncated estimators

We present a method to mitigate the effects of fiber assignment incompleteness in two-point power spectrum and correlation function measurements from galaxy spectroscopic surveys, by truncating small angular scales from estimators. We derive the corresponding modified correlation function and power spectrum windows to account for the small angular scale truncation in the theory prediction. We validate this approach on simulations reproducing the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1 (DR1) with and without fiber assignment. We show that we recover unbiased cosmological constraints using small angular scale truncated estimators from simulations with fiber assignment incompleteness, with respect to standard estimators from complete simulations. Additionally, we present an approach to remove the sensitivity of the fits to high k modes in the theoretical power spectrum, by applying a transformation to the data vector and window matrix. We find that our method efficiently mitigates the effect of fiber assignment incompleteness in two-point correlation function and power spectrum measurements, at low computational cost and with little statistical loss.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: Large-scale structure catalogues for cosmological analysis

ABSTRACT We present large-scale structure catalogues from the completed extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS). Derived from Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) IV Data Release 16 (DR16), these catalogues provide the data samples, corrected for observational systematics, and random positions sampling the survey selection function. Combined, they allow large-scale clustering measurements suitable for testing cosmological models. We describe the methods used to create these catalogues for the eBOSS DR16 Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) and Quasar samples. The quasar catalogue contains 343 708 redshifts with 0.8 < z < 2.2 over 4808 deg2. We combine 174 816 eBOSS LRG redshifts over 4242 deg2 in the redshift interval 0.6 < z < 1.0 with SDSS-III BOSS LRGs in the same redshift range to produce a combined sample of 377 458 galaxy redshifts distributed over 9493 deg2. Improved algorithms for estimating redshifts allow that 98 per cent of LRG observations result in a successful redshift, with less than one per cent catastrophic failures (Δz > 1000 km s−1). For quasars, these rates are 95 and 2 per cent (with Δz > 3000 km s−1). We apply corrections for trends between the number densities of our samples and the properties of the imaging and spectroscopic data. For example, the quasar catalogue obtains a χ2/DoF = 776/10 for a null test against imaging depth before corrections and a χ2/DoF= 6/8 after. The catalogues, combined with careful consideration of the details of their construction found here-in, allow companion papers to present cosmological results with negligible impact from observational systematic uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ultra-faint Milky Way Satellites Discovered in Carina, Phoenix, and Telescopium with DELVE Data Release 3

We report the discovery of three Milky Way satellite candidates: Carina IV, Phoenix III, and DELVE 7, in the third data release of the DECam Local Volume Exploration survey (DELVE). The candidate systems were identified by cross-matching results from two independent search algorithms. All three are extremely faint systems composed of old, metal-poor stellar populations (τ ≳ 10 Gyr, [Fe/H] ≲−1.4). Carina IV (M V = −2.8; r 1/2 = 40 pc) and Phoenix III (M V = −1.2; r 1/2 = 19 pc) have half-light radii that are consistent with the known population of dwarf galaxies, while DELVE 7 (M V = 1.2; r 1/2 = 2 pc) is very compact and seems more likely to be a star cluster, though its nature remains ambiguous without spectroscopic follow-up. The Gaia proper motions of stars in Carina IV ($M_{\star} = 2250^{+1180}_{-830} M_⊙$) indicate that it is unlikely to be associated with the LMC, while DECam CaHK photometry confirms that its member stars are metal poor. Phoenix III ($M_{\star} = 520^{+660}_{-290} M_⊙$) is the faintest known satellite in the extreme outer stellar halo (D GC > 100 kpc), while DELVE 7 ($M_{\star} = 60^{+120}_{-40} M_⊙$) is the faintest known satellite with D GC > 20 kpc.

Tan, Chin Yi [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Far-ultraviolet Variable Sources in M31

The Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (UVIT) on board the AstroSat observatory has imaged the Andromeda galaxy (M31) from 2017 to 2019 in the far- and near-UV (FUV and NUV) with the high spatial resolution of ≃1″. The survey covered the large sky area of M31 with a set of observations (Fields), each 28′ in diameter. Field 1 was observed in two epochs with the F148W filter, separated by ≃1133 days (≃3.10 yr). The 6.4 kpc diameter Field 1 (at the distance of M31) includes a substantial part of the inner spiral arms of the galaxy. We identify UVIT sources in both epochs of Field 1 and obtain catalogs of sources that are variable in FUV at >3σ and >5σ confidence level. The fraction of FUV-variable sources is higher for brighter sources, and the fraction is higher in the two main spiral arms compared to other areas. This is evidence that a significant fraction of the FUV variables are associated with hot young stars. Source counterparts are found for 42 of the 86 >5σ FUV variables using existing catalogs. The counterparts include 10 star clusters, 6 H II regions, 5 regular or semiregular variables, 6 other variables, and 6 nova or nova candidates. The UVIT FUV–NUV and FUV–FUV color–magnitude diagrams confirm the association of most of the FUV variables with hot young stars. A catalog of UVIT photometry for the variable sources is presented.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

An analytic approximation to the covariance between pre- and post-reconstruction galaxy two-point statistics

We present a simple analytic approximation for the covariance between pre-reconstruction galaxy power spectrum measurements and post-reconstruction two-point correlation functions. This cross-covariance is essential for joint analyses that combine full-shape clustering information with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements, as commonly performed in modern spectroscopic surveys. Our model builds on the disconnected contribution to the covariance and accounts for the damping of correlations due to the BAO reconstruction process. We validate our analytic prescription against numerical simulations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), testing both idealized cubic geometries and realistic survey configurations including complex footprints and fiber assignment effects. Despite neglecting survey window functions in the analytic calculation, we find excellent agreement with simulation-based covariances and demonstrate that cosmological parameter constraints are virtually unchanged when using our approximation. Our results show that the pre-post cross-covariance is sufficiently small that even approximate treatments are adequate for cosmological inference, opening a pathway toward fully analytic covariance matrices for next-generation galaxy surveys.

baryon acoustic oscillations↗

DOE OSTI2022

The intrinsic reddening of the Magellanic Clouds as traced by background galaxies – III. The Large Magellanic Cloud

ABSTRACT We present a map of the total intrinsic reddening across ≃ 90 deg2 of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) derived using optical (ugriz) and near-infrared (IR; YJKs) spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of background galaxies. The reddening map is created from a sample of 222 752 early-type galaxies based on the lephareχ2 minimization SED-fitting routine. We find excellent agreement between the regions of enhanced intrinsic reddening across the central (4 × 4 deg2) region of the LMC and the morphology of the low-level pervasive dust emission as traced by far-IR emission. In addition, we are able to distinguish smaller, isolated enhancements that are coincident with known star-forming regions and the clustering of young stars observed in morphology maps. The level of reddening associated with the molecular ridge south of 30 Doradus is, however, smaller than in the literature reddening maps. The reduced number of galaxies detected in this region, due to high extinction and crowding, may bias our results towards lower reddening values. Our map is consistent with maps derived from red clump stars and from the analysis of the star formation history across the LMC. This study represents one of the first large-scale categorizations of extragalactic sources behind the LMC and as such we provide the lephare outputs for our full sample of ∼ 2.5 million sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Joint X-Ray, Kinetic Sunyaev–Zeldovich, and Weak Lensing Measurements: Toward a Consensus Picture of Efficient Gas Expulsion from Groups and Clusters

There is no consensus on how baryon feedback shapes the underlying matter distribution from either simulations or observations. We confront the uncertain landscape by jointly analyzing new measurements of the gas distribution around groups and clusters—DESI+ACT kinetic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect profiles and eROSITA X-ray gas masses—with mean halo masses characterized by galaxy–galaxy lensing. Across a wide range of halo masses ( M 500 = 10 13−14 M ⊙ ) and redshifts (0 < z < 1), we find evidence of more efficient gas expulsion beyond several R 500 than predicted by most state-of-the-art simulations. A like-with-like comparison reveals all kSZ and X-ray observations are inconsistent with the fiducial 1 Gpc 3 hydrodynamical FLAMINGO simulation, which was calibrated to reproduce pre-eROSITA X-ray gas fractions: eROSITA X-ray gas fractions are 2 × lower than the simulation, and the kSZ measurements are combined >8σ discrepant. The FLAMINGO simulation variant with the most gas expulsion, and therefore the most suppression of the matter power spectrum relative to a dark-matter-only simulation, provides a good description of how much gas is expelled and how far it extends; the enhanced gas depletion is achieved by more powerful but less frequent AGN outbursts. Joint kSZ, X-ray, and lensing measurements form a consistent picture of gas expulsion beyond several R 500 , implying a more suppressed matter power spectrum than predicted by most recent simulations. Complementary observables (e.g., thermal Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect and fast radio bursts) and next-generation simulations are critical to understanding the physical mechanism behind this extreme gas expulsion and mapping its impact on the large-scale matter distribution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quasar clustering at redshift 6

Large-scale surveys over the last years have revealed about 300 quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) at redshifts above 6. Follow-up observations have identified surprising properties, such as the very high black hole (BH) masses, spatial correlations with surrounding cold gas of the host galaxy, and high CIV-MgII Velocity shifts. In particular, the discovery of luminous high-redshift quasars suggests that at least some BHs likely have high masses at birth and grow efficiently. Our aim is to quantify quasar pairs at high redshift for a large sample of objects. This provides a new key constraint on a combination of parameters related to the origin and assembly for the most massive BHs: formation efficiency and clustering, growth efficiency, and the relative contribution of BH mergers. We observed 116 spectroscopically confirmed QSOs around redshift 6 with the simultaneous seven-channel imager Gamma-ray Burst Optical/Near-infrared Detector in order to search for companions. Applying colour-colour cuts identical to those which led to the spectroscopically confirmed QSOs, we performed Le PHARE fits to the 26 best QSO pair candidates, and obtained spectroscopic observations for 11 of them. We do not find any QSO pair with a companion brighter than M 1450 (AB) < –26 mag within our 0.1–3.3 h –1 cMpc search radius, in contrast to the serendipitous findings in the redshift range 4–5. However, a small fraction of such pairs at this luminosity and redshift is consistent with indications from present-day cosmological-scale galaxy evolution models. In turn, the incidence of L- and T-type brown dwarfs, which occupy a similar colour space to z ~ 6 QSOs, is higher than expected, by a factor of 5 and 20, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Variable stars in Local Group galaxies – V. The fast and early evolution of the low-mass Eridanus II dSph galaxy

ABSTRACT We present a detailed study of the variable star population of Eridanus II (Eri II), an ultra-faint dwarf galaxy that lies close to the Milky Way virial radius. We analyse multi-epoch g, r, i ground-based data from Goodman and the Dark Energy Camera, plus F475W, F606W, F814W space data from the Advanced Camera for Surveys. We report the detection of 67 RR Lyrae (RRL) stars and 2 Anomalous Cepheids, most of them new discoveries. With the RRL stars, we measure the distance modulus of Eri II, μ0 = 22.84 ± 0.05 mag (D⊙ = 370 ± 9 kpc), and derive a metallicity spread of 0.3 dex (0.2 dex intrinsic). The colour distribution of the horizontal branch (HB) and the period distribution of the RRL stars can be nicely reproduced by a combination of two stellar models of [Fe/H] = (−2.62, −2.14). The overall low metallicity is consistent with the red giant branch bump location, 0.65 mag brighter than the HB. These results are in agreement with previous spectroscopic studies. The more metal-rich RRL and the RRab stars have greater central concentration than the more metal-poor RRL and the RRc stars that are mainly located outside ∼1 rh. This is similar to what is found in larger dwarf galaxies such as Sculptor, and in agreement with an outside-in galaxy formation scenario. This is remarkable in such a faint dwarf galaxy with an apparently single and extremely short (<1 Gyr) star formation burst. Finally, we have derived new and independent structural parameters for Eri II and its star cluster using our new data that are in very good agreement with previous estimates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: exploring the halo occupation distribution model for emission line galaxies

We study the modelling of the halo occupation distribution (HOD) for the eBOSS DR16 emission line galaxies (ELGs). Motivated by previous theoretical and observational studies, we consider different physical effects that can change how ELGs populate haloes. We explore the shape of the average HOD, the fraction of satellite galaxies, their probability distribution function (PDF), and their density and velocity profiles. Our baseline HOD shape was fitted to a semi-analytical model of galaxy formation and evolution, with a decaying occupation of central ELGs at high halo masses. We consider Poisson and sub/super-Poissonian PDFs for satellite assignment. We model both Navarro–Frenk–White and particle profiles for satellite positions, also allowing for decreased concentrations. We model velocities with the virial theorem and particle velocity distributions. Additionally, we introduce a velocity bias and a net infall velocity. We study how these choices impact the clustering statistics while keeping the number density and bias fixed to that from eBOSS ELGs. The projected correlation function, w p , captures most of the effects from the PDF and satellites profile. The quadrupole, ξ 2 , captures most of the effects coming from the velocity profile. We find that the impact of the mean HOD shape is subdominant relative to the rest of choices. Here, we fit the clustering of the eBOSS DR16 ELG data under different combinations of the above assumptions. The catalogues presented here have been analysed in companion papers, showing that eBOSS RSD+BAO measurements are insensitive to the details of galaxy physics considered here. These catalogues are made publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evidence of a Dwarf Galaxy Stream Populating the Inner Milky Way Halo

Stellar streams produced from dwarf galaxies provide direct evidence of the hierarchical formation of the Milky Way. Here, we present the first comprehensive study of the LMS-1 stellar stream, that we detect by searching for wide streams in the Gaia EDR3 data set using the STREAMFINDER algorithm. This stream was recently discovered by Yuan et al. We detect LMS-1 as a 60° long stream to the north of the galactic bulge, at a distance of ~20 kpc from the Sun, together with additional components that suggest that the overall stream is completely wrapped around the inner Galaxy. Using spectroscopic measurements from the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope, the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment, we infer that the stream is very metal-poor (<[Fe/H]> = –2.1) with a significant metallicity dispersion (σ [Fe/H] = 0.4), and it possesses a large radial velocity dispersion (σ v = 20 ± 4 km s–1 ). These estimates together imply that LMS-1 is a dwarf galaxy stream. The orbit of LMS-1 is close to polar, with an inclination of 75° to the galactic plane. Both the orbit and metallicity of LMS-1 are remarkably similar to the globular clusters NGC 5053, NGC 5024, and the stellar stream Indus. As a result, these findings make LMS-1 an important contributor to the stellar population of the inner Milky Way halo.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Physics from Cosmic Surveys (Final Report)

The main focus of the PI during this time was leading the effort to produce cosmological results on the data set from the first three years from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The analysis combines weak gravitational lensing and maps of the galaxy distribution, supplemented by estimates of the redshifts of galaxies. This will ultimately lead to 33 papers, culminating in a single paper that brings all this together and provides a constraint on the clustering parameter σ 8 .This will be directly compared to the constraint obtained by high-redshift experiments, such as the Planck satellite, extrapolated forward assuming the CDM model. If the two values disagree, as they currently seem to at the 2-sigma level, this will be an indication that the model is incorrect or incomplete. These papers are expected to be submitted in January, 2021. Leading this effort, with help from many others, has been the primary research focus of the PI during this grant.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

COMAP Early Science. V. Constraints and Forecasts at z ~ 3

We present the current state of models for the z ~ 3 carbon monoxide (CO) line intensity signal targeted by the CO Mapping Array Project (COMAP) Pathfinder in the context of its early science results. Our fiducial model, relating dark matter halo properties to CO luminosities, informs parameter priors with empirical models of the galaxy–halo connection and previous CO (1–0) observations. The Pathfinder early science data spanning wavenumbers k = 0.051–0.62 Mpc –1 represent the first direct 3D constraint on the clustering component of the CO (1–0) power spectrum. Our 95% upper limit on the redshift-space clustering amplitude A clust ≲ 70 μK 2 greatly improves on the indirect upper limit of 420 μK 2 reported from the CO Power Spectrum Survey (COPSS) measurement at k ~ 1 Mpc –1 . The COMAP limit excludes a subset of models from previous literature and constrains interpretation of the COPSS results, demonstrating the complementary nature of COMAP and interferometric CO surveys. Using line bias expectations from our priors, we also constrain the squared mean line intensity–bias product, ${\left\langle {Tb}\right\rangle }_{2}$ ≲ 50 μK 2 , and the cosmic molecular gas density, ρ H2 < 2.5 × 10 8 M ⊙ Mpc –3 (95% upper limits). Based on early instrument performance and our current CO signal estimates, we forecast that the 5 yr Pathfinder campaign will detect the CO power spectrum with overall signal-to-noise ratio of 9–17. Between then and now, we also expect to detect the CO–galaxy cross-spectrum using overlapping galaxy survey data, enabling enhanced inferences of cosmic star formation and galaxy evolution history.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗