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At least 919 records · Page 51

Conceptual Structural Design and Analysis of a 20 T Hybrid Cos Dipole for Future Particle Colliders

Here, to reach high collision energy for future high-energy particle colliders, like the Future Circular Collider (FCC) or the Muon Collider, it is required to achieve high field strength of the bending dipoles. Currently, the practical limit for Nb$_{\text{3}}$ Sn technology is around 16 T and, in order to further increase the magnetic field, the superconducting magnet community is considering High Temperature Superconductors (HTS), in particular Bi-2212 and REBCO conductors. However, their relevant higher cost has led the community to consider a hybrid approach where HTS materials are used in the high field region of the coils with so-called insert coils, and Low Temperature Superconductors are involved in the lower field part ($< $ 16 T) with so-called outsert coils. This paper describes the conceptual mechanical design of a 20 T hybrid cos$\theta$ dipole configuration. The high stress levels that the structure is facing due to the high magnetic field are discussed. Moreover, it presents the results of the optimization analysis of the shell-based support structure based on the key-and-bladder technology that provides the azimuthal pre-stress during room temperature assembly and cooldown to cryogenic temperatures. The aim of this work is to present a feasible design that satisfies the stress requirements.

D'Addazio, Marika [Politecnico di Torino (Italy); ↗

Co-Optimization Scheme for Hybrid Electric Vehicles Powertrain and Exhaust Emission Control System Using Future Speed Prediction

Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have been an effective solution for improved vehicle fuel efficiency and reduced emission pollution. In this paper, a co-optimization scheme is proposed to optimize fuel efficiency for HEVs. Here, the proposed optimization scheme uses obtainable future speed prediction as the basis to optimally tune control parameters for the existing powertrain control system. The ramp-up time of the catalyst temperature to reach its light-off level in the exhaust emission system is also considered as an additional optimization constraint to reduce emission. The Toyota Prius Hybrid Simulink model which is an integrated model for a powertrain and exhaust emission system is validated using real data from several real driving cycle scenarios. Then, to simplify the formulation of the proposed algorithm, the model for the optimization for powertrain and exhaust emission systems is represented by a set of equivalent neural network (NN) models learned using the data generated from the well-validated Toyota Prius Hybrid Simulink model. Using NN models, a co-optimization algorithm is established that provides an optimal tuning of some fuel-sensitive powertrain control parameters using future speed prediction, leading to a novel co-optimization algorithm, achieving on average a further 9.22% fuel savings for the Toyota Prius Hybrid Simulink model.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Intersection of Hydrologic Change and Hydropower in the United States: Needs for Future Research and Practice

Hydropower is crucial for electric‐grid stability in the context of variable renewables but faces threats from changing hydrology. Here, we summarize the state of the science at the intersection of hydropower operations and planning, hydrologic science, and climate. We focus on the United States, outlining research, development, and training needs. Key knowledge gaps include the risk that intensification of compound extreme events poses to future generation, as well as uncertainties surrounding greenhouse gas emissions from hydropower reservoirs with relevance to hydropower's role in energy decarbonization. Quantifying such impacts and reducing uncertainty are critical where possible, but remaining irreducible or deep uncertainty will require new approaches. Future monitoring and modeling methods must provide a better understanding of the complexity inherent in large watersheds that is critical to managing both hydropower and watersheds in the context of hydrologic change. Yet, research and development will have little impact if they do not inform practice. Standardization and consolidation of platforms are essential for data, modeling, and tool translation to local scales and small operators. An enhanced industry‐academia dialog is pivotal for fostering a robust pipeline of hydropower professionals. Collaboration among researchers, policymakers, authorities, and industry stakeholders emerges as a recurring theme, highlighting the imperative for collective efforts.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Future land use threats to range-restricted fish species in the United States

Land use change is one major threat to freshwater biodiversity, and land use change scenarios can help to assess threats from future land use change, thereby guiding proactive conservation decisions. Furthermore, our goal was to identify which range-restricted freshwater fish species are most likely to be affected by land use change and to determine where threats to these species from future land use change in the conterminous United States are most pronounced.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Role of Forest Carbon Change in Shaping Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

Global change, particularly the changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, climatic variables, and nitrogen deposition, has been widely recognized and examined to have worldwide impacts on forest carbon. However, its influence on forest area required to meet the demand for timber and carbon storage and subsequent land use and land cover change (LULCC) is rarely studied. This study explores the role of global change-driven forest carbon change in shaping future global LULCC projections and investigates underlying drivers. We incorporated the global change impacts on forest carbon from the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles model simulations (driven by meteorological forcing projections from two Earth system models [ESMs]) into the Global Change Analysis Model, under three combinations of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Including forest carbon change decreases the projected expansion of managed forest and managed pasture, reduces the loss of unmanaged pastures and forests, and provides more cropland. The relative change in managed forest by 2100 is -4.0%, -21.7%, and -31.9%, under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, when forest carbon change is considered. CO 2 fertilization is the dominant driver, increasing forest vegetation and soil carbon by 37% and 4.1%, and leading to 78.6% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585. In comparison, climate change reduces forest vegetation and soil carbon by -3.5% and -0.8%, influencing 23.9% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585, while nitrogen deposition has minor impacts. Using meteorological forcing data from two ESMs leads to similar impacts of forest carbon change on LULCC in terms of sign and trend but different magnitudes. This study highlights the large impact of forest carbon change on shaping future LULCC dynamics and the critical role of CO 2 fertilization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climatic impact, future biomass production, and local adaptation of four switchgrass cultivars

Abstract Previous studies have shown that switchgrass has a wide range of genetic variation and that productivity is linked to local adaptation to the location of origin for many cultivars. In this meta‐analysis, we compiled and analyzed 900 observations associated with 41 field trials for four switchgrass cultivars (two lowlands, Alamo and Kanlow, and two uplands, Cave‐In‐Rock and Shelter). This extensive dataset and machine learning were used to identify the most influential variables impacting switchgrass productivity, to search for evidence of local adaptation to each cultivar's location of origin, and to predict change in productivity under future climate for each cultivar. In general, variables associated with climate and management are more important predictors of productivity relative to soil variables. Three climatic variables, annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and precipitation in the wettest month, are identified as key environmental variables for productivity of all cultivars. Productivity under future climate (2041–2060) is predicted to stay stable for all cultivars relative to the prediction under current climate (1986–2005) across all trial locations and over a 20‐year simulation period. However, the productivity of each cultivar varies from location to location and from year to year, although productivity varies more between locations than between years. Additionally, we observe shifts in the most productive cultivar at the local field scale depending on the combination of management practice and climates. The shape of the relationship between productivity and the annual mean temperature relative to the cultivar's location of origin is a bell‐shaped curve for Kanlow, Cave‐in‐Rock, and Shelter, indicative of local adaptation. Identifying influential environmental variables and their relationships to productivity with respect to cultivar's location of origin help predicting productivity on the local field scale, and will help with the biofuel production planning through the selection of suitable cultivars for different locations under climate changes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The good, the bad, and the future: Systematic review identifies best use of biomass to meet air quality and climate policies in California

Abstract California has large and diverse biomass resources and provides a pertinent example of how biomass use is changing and needs to change, in the face of climate mitigation policies. As in other areas of the world, California needs to optimize its use of biomass and waste to meet environmental and socioeconomic objectives. We used a systematic review to assess biomass use pathways in California and the associated impacts on climate and air quality. Biomass uses included the production of renewable fuels, electricity, biochar, compost, and other marketable products. For those biomass use pathways recently developed, information is available on the effects—usually beneficial—on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and there is some, but less, published information on the effects on criteria pollutants. Our review identifies 34 biomass use pathways with beneficial impacts on either GHG or pollutant emissions, or both—the “good.” These included combustion of forest biomass for power and conversion of livestock‐associated biomass to biogas by anaerobic digestion. The review identified 13 biomass use pathways with adverse impacts on GHG emissions, criteria pollutant emissions, or both—the “bad.” Wildfires are an example of one out of eight pathways which were found to be bad for both climate and air quality, while only two biomass use pathways reduced GHG emissions relative to an identified counterfactual but had adverse air quality impacts. Issues of high interest for the “future” included land management to reduce fire risk, future policies for the dairy industries, and full life‐cycle analysis of biomass production and use.

Agriculture↗

Data‐driven identification of environmental variables influencing phenotypic plasticity to facilitate breeding for future climates

Summary Phenotypic plasticity describes a genotype's ability to produce different phenotypes in response to different environments. Breeding crops that exhibit appropriate levels of plasticity for future climates will be crucial to meeting global demand, but knowledge of the critical environmental factors is limited to a handful of well‐studied major crops. Using 727 maize ( Zea mays L.) hybrids phenotyped for grain yield in 45 environments, we investigated the ability of a genetic algorithm and two other methods to identify environmental determinants of grain yield from a large set of candidate environmental variables constructed using minimal assumptions. The genetic algorithm identified pre‐ and postanthesis maximum temperature, mid‐season solar radiation, and whole season net evapotranspiration as the four most important variables from a candidate set of 9150. Importantly, these four variables are supported by previous literature. After calculating reaction norms for each environmental variable, candidate genes were identified and gene annotations investigated to demonstrate how this method can generate insights into phenotypic plasticity. The genetic algorithm successfully identified known environmental determinants of hybrid maize grain yield. This demonstrates that the methodology could be applied to other less well‐studied phenotypes and crops to improve understanding of phenotypic plasticity and facilitate breeding crops for future climates.

Kusmec, Aaron↗

Tree water dynamics in a drying and warming world: Future tree water dynamics

Disentangling the relative impacts of precipitation reduction and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) on plant water dynamics and determining whether acclimation may influence these patterns in the future is an important challenge. Here, we report sap flux density (FD), stomatal conductance (Gs), hydraulic conductivity (KL) and xylem anatomy in piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) trees subjected to five years of precipitation reduction, atmospheric warming (elevated VPD) and their combined effects. No acclimation occurred under precipitation reduction: lower Gs and FD were found for both species compared to ambient conditions. Warming reduced the sensibility of stomata to VPD for both species but resulted in the maintenance of Gs and FD to ambient levels only for piñon. For juniper, reduced soil moisture under warming negated benefits of stomatal adjustments and resulted in reduced FD, Gs and KL. Although reduced stomatal sensitivity to VPD also occurred under combined stresses, reductions in Gs, FD and KL took place to similar levels as under single stresses for both species. Our results show that stomatal conductance adjustments to high VPD could minimize but not entirely prevent additive effects of warming and drying on water use and carbon acquisition of trees in semi-arid regions.

Grossiord, Charlotte↗

Riparian vegetation shade restoration and loss effects on recent and future stream temperatures

River temperatures are expected to increase this century harming species requiring cold-water habitat unless restoration activities protect or improve habitat availability. Local shading by riparian vegetation can cool water temperatures, but uncertainty exists over the scaling of this local effect to larger spatial extents. Here, we evaluate this issue using a regional spatial stream network temperature model with covariates representing shade effects to predict mean August stream temperatures across 78,195 km of tributaries flowing into the Columbia River in the northwestern United States. We evaluate nine scenarios predicting stream temperatures for three riparian shade conditions (current, restored, and no riparian vegetation) within three different climate periods (2000s, 2040s, and 2080s). Results suggest riparian shade restoration (2000s climate) could decrease mean August stream temperatures by 0.62°C across the study network. Under the same restored shade conditions, temperature predictions for tributaries at their confluence with the Columbia River range from 0.02 to 2.08°C cooler than under current shade conditions. The climate warming effect predicted for the 2040s and 2080s, however, is greater than the cooling effect from restoring riparian shade. Streams less than 10-m bankfull width cooled more frequently with riparian shade restoration. In Oregon, the proportion of fish habitat for salmon and trout rearing and migration that meet temperature numeric water quality criteria could be increased by 20% under restored shade conditions although net habitat declines may still occur in the future. We conclude riparian vegetation restoration could partially mitigate future warming and help maintain cold-water habitats that function as thermal refuges if implemented strategically.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Opportunities and Challenges in Metal Forming for Lightweighting: Review and Future Work

Abstract The purposes of this review are to summarize the historical progress in the last 60 years of lightweight metal forming, to analyze the state-of-the-art, and to identify future directions in the context of Cyber-physically enabled circular economy. In honoring the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the Manufacturing Engineering Division of ASME, this review paper first provides the impact of the metal forming sector on the economy and historical perspectives of metal forming research work published by the ASME Journal of Manufacturing Science and Engineering, followed by the motivations and trends in lightweighting. To achieve lightweighting, one needs to systematically consider: (1) materials and material characterization; (2) innovative forming processes; and (3) simulation tools for integrated part design and process design. A new approach for process innovation, i.e., the Performance-Constraints-Mechanism-Innovation (PCMI) framework, is proposed to systematically seek new processes. Finally, trends and challenges for the further development in circular economy are presented for future exploration.

Engineering↗

On evaluation of assessments of accruals of future dismantling costs

A major prerequisite in order for civilian commercial nuclear energy production to qualify as sustainable energy production is that systems for the management of the nuclear waste legacy are in operation. These waste types are present in a range from very low short lived waste (VLLW) to long lived high level waste (HLW) (including the used nuclear fuel). The second prerequisite is that financial responsibilities or other constraints must not be passed on to coming generations. The first condition for qualification corresponds to the Polluters Pays Principle (PPP) which demands that the responsibility for the waste management rests solely with the polluter. The second qualification corresponds to the principle of fairness between generations and thus concerns the appropriate distribution of responsibilities between the generations. It is important to note that these two conditions must be met simultaneously, and that compliance with both is a necessary prerequisite in order for commercial use of nuclear power to qualify as a semi-sustainable energy source. Financial and technical planning for dismantling and decommissioning of nuclear installations cannot be regarded as successful unless it rests upon a distinctive way to describe and explain the well-founded values of different groups of stakeholders. This cumbersome task can be underpinned by transparent and easy to grasp models for calculation and estimation of future environmental liabilities. It essential that a systematic classification is done of all types of costs and that an effort is done to evaluate the precision level in the cost estimates. In this paper, a systematic and transparent way to develop a parametric approach that rest upon basic accounting standards is combined with data about younger stakeholder's values towards decommissioning and dismantling of nuclear installation. The former entity rests upon theoretical and practical methods from business administration, whilst the latter is based on current survey data retrieved from 667 personal interviews in one town in Poland and one town in Slovakia with a near 100 % response rate. The main conclusions from this field study may be summarised as follows: - Sustainable energy sources are prioritised. - Around one quarter of the respondents regards nuclear power as a future semi-sustainable commercial energy production mode subject to that the waste is managed in a sustainable, environmental friendly and safe way - The values are to a significant degree positioned on health, safety and environmental (HSE) attributes. - The polluter pays principle is honoured. - There are doubts regarding the compliance with these principles due to risks for delays in the implementation phase of repositories for disposal of the nuclear residues. - 1/5. of the respondents expressed an openness to reprocessing (which is linked to the concept of 'new nuclear power'). (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

SIMS of organics—Advances in 2D and 3D imaging and future outlook

Secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) has become a powerful technique for the label-free analysis of organics from cells to electronic devices. The development of cluster ion sources has revolutionized the field, increasing the sensitivity for organics by two or three orders of magnitude and for large clusters, such as C{sub 60} and argon clusters, allowing depth profiling of organics. The latter has provided the capability to generate stunning three dimensional images with depth resolutions of around 5 nm, simply unavailable by other techniques. Current state-of-the-art allows molecular images with a spatial resolution of around 500 nm to be achieved and future developments are likely to progress into the sub-100 nm regime. This review is intended to bring those with some familiarity with SIMS up-to-date with the latest developments for organics, the fundamental principles that underpin this and define the future progress. State-of-the-art examples are showcased and signposts to more in-depth reviews about specific topics given for the specialist.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Future of plasma etching for microelectronics: Challenges and opportunities

Plasma etching is an essential semiconductor manufacturing technology required to enable the current microelectronics industry. Along with lithographic patterning, thin-film formation methods, and others, plasma etching has dynamically evolved to meet the exponentially growing demands of the microelectronics industry that enables modern society. At this time, plasma etching faces a period of unprecedented changes owing to numerous factors, including aggressive transition to three-dimensional (3D) device architectures, process precision approaching atomic-scale critical dimensions, introduction of new materials, fundamental silicon device limits, and parallel evolution of post-CMOS approaches. The vast growth of the microelectronics industry has emphasized its role in addressing major societal challenges, including questions on the sustainability of the associated energy use, semiconductor manufacturing related emissions of greenhouse gases, and others. The goal of this article is to help both define the challenges for plasma etching and point out effective plasma etching technology options that may play essential roles in defining microelectronics manufacturing in the future. The challenges are accompanied by significant new opportunities, including integrating experiments with various computational approaches such as machine learning/artificial intelligence and progress in computational approaches, including the realization of digital twins of physical etch chambers through hybrid/coupled models. These prospects can enable innovative solutions to problems that were not available during the past 50 years of plasma etch development in the microelectronics industry. To elaborate on these perspectives, the present article brings together the views of various experts on the different topics that will shape plasma etching for microelectronics manufacturing of the future.

Engineering↗

WE-H-BRB-03: Learning Health Systems for Radiation Oncology: Needs and Challenges for Future Success

Big Data in Radiation Oncology: (1) Overview of the NIH 2015 Big Data Workshop, (2) Where do we stand in the applications of big data in radiation oncology?, and (3) Learning Health Systems for Radiation Oncology: Needs and Challenges for Future Success The overriding goal of this trio panel of presentations is to improve awareness of the wide ranging opportunities for big data impact on patient quality care and enhancing potential for research and collaboration opportunities with NIH and a host of new big data initiatives. This presentation will also summarize the Big Data workshop that was held at the NIH Campus on August 13–14, 2015 and sponsored by AAPM, ASTRO, and NIH. The workshop included discussion of current Big Data cancer registry initiatives, safety and incident reporting systems, and other strategies that will have the greatest impact on radiation oncology research, quality assurance, safety, and outcomes analysis. Learning Objectives: To discuss current and future sources of big data for use in radiation oncology research To optimize our current data collection by adopting new strategies from outside radiation oncology To determine what new knowledge big data can provide for clinical decision support for personalized medicine L. Xing, NIH/NCI Google Inc.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

TMDs and GPDs at a future Electron-Ion Collider

With two options studied at Brookhaven National Lab and Jefferson Laboratory the U.S., an Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) of energy √s=20-100 GeV was under design. Furthermore, the recent 2015 US Nuclear Science Long-Range Planning effort included a future EIC as a recommendation for future construction. The EIC will be unique in colliding polarised electrons off polarised protons and light nuclei, providing the spin degrees of freedom essential to pursue its physics program driven by spin structure, multi-dimensional tomographic images of protons and nuclei, and discovery of the role of collective effects of gluons in nuclei. The foreseen luminosity of the EIC, coupled with its energy variability and reach, will allow unprecedented three-dimensional imaging of the gluon and sea quark distributions, via both TMDs and GPDs, and to explore correlations amongst them. Its hermetic detection capability of correlated fragments promises to similar allow for precise tomographic images of the quark-gluon landscape in nuclei, transcending from light few-body nuclei to the heaviest nuclei, and could uncover how the TMD and GPD landscape changes when gluons display an anticipated collective behavior at the higher energies.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

HE-LHC: The High-Energy Large Hadron Collider

Particle physics has arrived at an important moment of its history. The discovery of the Higgs boson, with a mass of 125 GeV, completes the matrix of particles and interactions that has constituted the “Standard Model” for several decades. This model is a consistent and predictive theory, which has so far proven successful at describing all phenomena accessible to collider experiments. However, several experimental facts do require the extension of the Standard Model and explanations are needed for observations such as the abundance of matter over antimatter, the striking evidence for dark matter and the non-zero neutrino masses. Theoretical issues such as the hierarchy problem, and, more in general, the dynamical origin of the Higgs mechanism, do likewise point to the existence of physics beyond the Standard Model. This report contains the description of a novel research infrastructure based on a high-energy hadron collider, which extends the current energy frontier by almost a factor 2 (27 TeV collision energy) and an integrated luminosity of at least a factor of 3 larger than the HL-LHC. In connection with four experimental detectors, this infrastructure will deepen our understanding of the origin of the electroweak symmetry breaking, allow a first measurement of the Higgs self-coupling, double the HL-LHC discovery reach and allow for in-depth studies of new physics signals arising from future LHC measurements. This collider would directly produce particles at significant rates at scales up to 12 TeV. The project re-uses the existing LHC underground infrastructure and large parts of the injector chain at CERN. This particle collider would succeed the HL-LHC directly and serve the world-wide physics community for about 20 years beyond the middle of the 21st century. The European Strategy for Particle Physics (ESPP) update 2013 stated “To stay at the forefront of particle physics, Europe needs to be in a position to propose an ambitious post-LHC accelerator project at CERN by the time of the next Strategy update”. The FCC study has implemented the ESPP recommendation by developing a vision for an “accelerator project in a global context”. This document describes the detailed design and preparation of a construction project for a post-LHC circular high-energy hadron collider “in collaboration with national institutes, laboratories and universities worldwide”, and enhanced by a strong participation of industrial partners. Now, a coordinated preparation effort can be based on a core of an ever-growing consortium of already more than 135 institutes worldwide. The technology for constructing a High-Energy LHC can be brought to the technology readiness level required for construction within the coming ten years through a committed and focused R&D programme. The concept comprises a power-saving, low-temperature superconducting magnet system based on an evolution of the Nb3Sn technology pioneered at the HL-LHC, an energy-efficient cryogenic refrigeration infrastructure based on a neon-helium (Nelium) light gas mixture, a high-reliability and low loss cryogen distribution infrastructure based on Invar, high-power distributed beam transfer using superconducting elements and local magnet energy recovery and re-use technologies that are already gradually introduced at other CERN accelerators. Re-use of the LHC underground civil infrastructure worth about 500 million CHF at the time of its construction, extension of the surface sites and use of the existing injector chain that also serve for a concurrently running physics programme are levers to come to a sustainable research infrastructure at the energy frontier. Strategic R&D for HE-LHC aims at minimising construction cost and energy consumption, while maximising the socio-economic impact. It needs to mitigate technology-related risks and ensure that industry can benefit from an acceptable economic utility. Concerning the implementation, a preparatory phase of about eight years is both necessary and adequate to establish the project governance and organisation structures, to build the international machine and experiment consortia, to develop a territorial implantation plan considering the constraints emerging from using the existing infrastructure and the host states’ requirements, optimising the use of land, resources and preparing the construction project. Such a large-scale, international fundamental research infrastructure, tightly involving industrial partners and providing training at all education levels, will be a strong motor of economic and societal development in all participating nations. The FCC study has implemented a set of actions towards a coherent vision for the world-wide high-energy and particle physics community, providing a collaborative framework for topically complementary and geographically well-balanced contributions. This conceptual design report lays the foundation for a subsequent infrastructure preparatory and technical design phase.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

The International Committee for Future Accelerators (ICFA): 1976 to the present

The International Committee for Future Accelerators (ICFA) has been in existence now for four decades. It plays an important role in allowing discussions by the world particle physics community on the status and future of very large particle accelerators and the particle physics and related fields associated with them. Here, this paper gives some indication of what ICFA is and does, and also describes its involvement in some of the more important developments in the particle physics field since its founding.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗