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At least 919 records · Page 51

Inference offers a metric to constrain dynamical models of neutrino flavor transformation

The multimessenger astrophysics of compact objects presents a vast range of environments where neutrino flavor transformation may occur and may be important for nucleosynthesis, dynamics, and a detected neutrino signal. Development of efficient techniques for surveying flavor evolution solution spaces in these diverse environments, which augment and complement existing sophisticated computational tools, could leverage progress in this field. To this end we continue our exploration of statistical data assimilation (SDA) to identify solutions to a small-scale model of neutrino flavor transformation. SDA is a machine learning formula wherein a dynamical model is assumed to generate any measured quantities. Specifically, we use an optimization formulation of SDA wherein a cost function is extremized via the variational method. Regions of state space in which the extremization identifies the global minimum of the cost function will correspond to parameter regimes in which a model solution can exist. Our example study seeks to infer the flavor transformation histories of two monoenergetic neutrino beams coherently interacting with each other and with a matter background. We require that the solution be consistent with measured neutrino flavor fluxes at the point of detection, and with constraints placed upon the flavor content at various locations along their trajectories, such as the point of emission, and the locations of the Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein resonances. We show how the procedure efficiently identifies solution regimes and rules out regimes where solutions are infeasible. Overall, results in this work intimate the promise of this “variational annealing” methodology to efficiently probe an array of fundamental questions that traditional numerical simulation codes render difficult to access.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for Dark Matter Induced Deexcitation of 180 Ta m

Weak-scale dark matter particles, in collisions with nuclei, can mediate transitions between different nuclear energy levels. In particular, owing to sizeable momentum exchange, dark matter particles can enable de-excitation of nuclear isomers that are extremely long lived with respect to regular radioactive decays. In this paper, we utilize data from a past experiment with 180 Ta m to search for γ-lines that would accompany dark matter induced de-excitation of this isomer. Non-observation of such transitions above background yields the first direct constraint on the lifetime of 180 Ta m against DM-initiated transitions: T 1/2 > 1.3 × 10 14 a at 90% C.I. Using this result, we derive novel constraints on dark matter models with strongly interacting relics, and on models with inelastic dark matter particles. Existing constraints are strengthened by this independent new method. As a result, the obtained limits are also valid for the Standard Model γ-decay of 180 Ta m .

150 ≤ A ≤ 189↗

Is the Orbital-Selective Mott Phase Stable against Interorbital Hopping?

The localization-delocalization transition is at the heart of strong correlation physics. Recently, there is great interest in multiorbital systems where this transition can be restricted to certain orbitals, leading to an orbital-selective Mott phase (OSMP). Theoretically, the OSMP is widely studied for kinetically decoupled orbitals, but the effect of interorbital hopping remains unclear. Here, we show how nonlocal interorbital hopping leads to local hybridization in single-site dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT). Under fairly general circumstances, this implies that, at zero temperature, the OSMP, involving the Mott-insulating state of one orbital, is unstable against interorbital hopping to a different, metallic orbital. We further show that the coherence scale below which all electrons are itinerant is very small and gets exponentially suppressed even if the interorbital hopping is not overly small. Within this framework, the OSMP with interorbital hopping may thus reach down to extremely low temperatures T, but not to T = 0. Accordingly, it is part of a coherence-incoherence crossover and not a quantum critical point. Finally, we present analytical arguments supported by numerical results using the numerical renormalization group as a DMFT impurity solver. We also compare our findings with previous slave-spin studies.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Observability Analysis of a Power System Stochastic Dynamic Model Using a Derivative-Free Approach

Serving as a prerequisite to power system dynamic state estimation, the observability analysis of a power system dynamic model has recently attracted the attention of many power engineers. However, because this model is typically nonlinear and large-scale, the analysis of its observability is a challenge to the traditional derivative-based methods. Indeed, the linear-approximation-based approach may provide unreliable results while the nonlinear-technique-based approach inevitably faces extremely complicated derivations. Furthermore, because power systems are intrinsically stochastic, the traditional deterministic approaches may lead to inaccurate observability analyses. In this work, facing these challenges, we propose a novel polynomial-chaos-based derivative-free observability analysis approach that not only is free of any linear approximations, but also accounts for the stochasticity of the dynamic model while bringing a low implementation complexity. Furthermore, this approach enables us to quantify the degree of observability of a stochastic model, what conventional deterministic methods cannot do. The excellent performance of the proposed method has been demonstrated by performing extensive simulations using a synchronous generator model with IEEE-DC1A exciter and the TGOV1 turbine governor.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Embracing fine-root system complexity in terrestrial ecosystem modeling

Projecting the dynamics and functioning of the biosphere requires a holistic consideration of whole-ecosystem processes. However, biases toward leaf, canopy, and soil modeling since the 1970s have constantly left fine-root systems being rudimentarily treated. As accelerated empirical advances in the last two decades establish clearly functional differentiation conferred by the hierarchical structure of fine-root orders and associations with mycorrhizal fungi, a need emerges to embrace this complexity to bridge the data-model gap in still extremely uncertain models. In this work, we propose a three-pool structure comprising transport and absorptive fine roots with mycorrhizal fungi (TAM) to model vertically resolved fine-root systems across organizational and spatial–temporal scales. Emerging from a conceptual shift away from arbitrary homogenization, TAM builds upon theoretical and empirical foundations as an effective and efficient approximation that balances realism and simplicity. A proof-of-concept demonstration of TAM in a big-leaf model both conservatively and radically shows robust impacts of differentiation within fine-root systems on simulating carbon cycling in temperate forests. Theoretical and quantitative support warrants exploiting its rich potentials across ecosystems and models to confront uncertainties and challenges for a predictive understanding of the biosphere. Echoing a broad trend of embracing ecological complexity in integrative ecosystem modeling, TAM may offer a consistent framework where modelers and empiricists can work together toward this grand goal.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Life Cycle of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the Southern Hemisphere from a Multimillennial GCM Simulation

Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are rare in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), making it difficult to study possible precursors or subsequent impacts. Using a multimillennial coupled climate model simulation producing 161 SSWs in the SH, we present a detailed study of their life cycle. We show that SH SSWs are predominantly displacement events forced by wave-1 planetary waves, and that a surface signature similar to the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is detectable up to two months before the onset date, but there is a tendency for a transition from wave 1 before to zonally symmetric anomalies after onset. We identify a strong weakening of the Amundsen Sea low as one of the most prominent precursors, which weakens the climatological wave-2 and wave-3 stationary waves and strengthens wave-1 forcing. Compared to their northern counterparts, SH SSWs generally have a longer time scale, and while there is evidence of pre-onset forcing related to tropical sea surface temperatures, the Indian Ocean dipole is more important than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Significance Statement Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme events where the winter polar stratosphere warms within a few days to temperatures usually only experienced in summer. These events are rare in the Southern Hemisphere. Therefore, both the observational record and standard climate model simulations are not enough to understand how SSWs develop, or how they might change surface weather. Here we use very long global climate simulations that produce a large number of SSWs in the Southern Hemisphere to study the development and impact of these events. This includes possible precursors as well as the influence they have on surface weather after they occur.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Environmental Testing of SolarSCADA's SSI Data Acquisition System

In April of 2022, SolarSCADA, Inc., was awarded voucher funding to conduct research and analysis at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) per the American-Made Solar Prize. SolarSCADA produces a fully integrated data acquisition system that is designed specifically for PV fields and includes a data monitoring platform. SolarSCADA is focused providing the SSI unit with all sensors/measurements per requirements in IEC-61724-1 [1] and with utility scale bankability. The objective of the SolarSCADA voucher funding was established as follows: Leverage NREL's existing calibration and environmental testing capabilities to evaluate the stability of the SSI channels and overall systeme in response to extreme environmental conditions associated with fielded PV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Economic losses from extreme weather in the U.S. Gulf Coast region: spatially differential contributions of climate hazard and socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability

Worldwide economic losses from extreme weather events (EWE) have increased over recent decades, with significant geographic heterogeneity in damages. The IPCC defines the risk from EWE as a function of the climate hazard, socioeconomic exposure, and vulnerability. Although these three drivers vary at fine spatial scales, spatial variability largely has been overlooked in assessments of the drivers of economic loss from EWE. Using cluster analysis, we developed a novel socio-climate hazard typology (SCT) that integrates locally defined climate hazard and socioeconomic exposure and social vulnerability typologies. The results identified 838 unique SCT types impacted by EWE across the Gulf Coastal United States during 1981–2010. We regressed the SCT types and their constituent hazard and socioeconomic components against the cumulative economic loss (1981–2010) from EWE for each SCT type. Across the landscape, economic damages of SCT types were determined by unique, spatially explicit combinations of different risk factors, even in explaining the same level of economic loss. For example, multi-billion-dollar damages in the central Gulf Coast and peninsular Florida were explained by different drivers of risk, with damages in the former explained by additive interaction between climate hazard and multiplicative interaction between climate hazard and socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability, and in the latter explained by socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability. These results highlight the need to diagnose additive and multiplicative interactions among drivers of EWE risk in a spatially explicit context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Turbulence-Resolving Simulations of Hurricane Laura (2020): Insights Into Extreme Winds and Eyewall Turbulence

Extreme weather events pose significant risks to coastal and offshore energy infrastructure. In this work, we investigate the structure of mean winds and turbulence near the surface ( z < 300 m) that occurred during Hurricane Laura in 2020 on the US Gulf Coast. To this end, we perform turbulence-resolving simulations (..delta..x = 33.33 m) that encompass the entire eyewall of Hurricane Laura by introducing a novel method that we will refer to as Moving-Mesoscale to Static-LES Integrated Coupling (MOSAIC). The simulation results are validated against surface, boundary-layer, and mid-tropospheric observations. Our analysis of the extreme wind conditions near the surface indicates that the mean wind and turbulence profiles vary greatly at and near the eyewall, resulting in extreme values of mean wind speed (U > 50 m * s-1) and turbulence kinetic energy (k ~ 50 m2 * s-2) at altitudes above 50 m . To investigate in detail the nature of turbulence within the eyewall of the storm, we conduct higher-resolution simulations (..delta..x = 11.11 m) of a portion of the hurricane. We provide a comprehensive statistical description of turbulence in the eyewall region, highlighting the need to employ ..delta..x ~ 10 m grid spacing to capture the integral length-scales near the surface, second- and higher-order central moments (i.e., skewness and kurtosis), and spectral coherence in the flow accurately. These numerical simulations provide the most detailed description of mean winds and turbulent conditions within the eyewall of a historical tropical cyclone to date, illustrating how high-resolution simulations can enhance limited turbulence measurements in hurricanes and giving insight into the extreme conditions threatening offshore and coastal infrastructure.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Annual Tropical‐Rainforest Productivity Through Two Decades: Complex Responses to Climatic Factors, [CO 2 ] and Storm Damage

Abstract Yearly changes in tropical carbon‐cycling have been a major biotic determinant of the interannual variation in the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide ([CO 2 ]). The environmental responses underlying these changes remain poorly understood. A 21‐year field study (1997–2018) in a Costa Rican rainforest has produced the first multi‐decade record of landscape‐scale annual aboveground productivity for a tropical ecosystem. While none of the four production components (wood production; leaf‐, twig‐, and reproductive litterfall) increased over two decades, all significantly varied among years. Multi‐factor environmental models explained a large fraction of the inter‐year changes in two production components. Annual changes in three climatic factors and [CO 2 ] jointly accounted for 84% of the variation in annual wood production. While the strongest response of wood production was to decline in years of slightly warmer nights, it also significantly declined in years with more dry‐season hours hotter than 28°C. The yearly changes in reproductive litterfall were largely (52%) determined by the combined effects of increasing [CO 2 ] and declining annual radiation. Twig litterfall declined over the 21 years. Annual leaf litterfall, the largest component of field‐assessed aboveground production, showed no significant environmental responses. An extreme storm in the study's final year disrupted the environmental controls on production that prevailed through the prior 20 years. While important uncertainties are introduced by some of the field methods for assessing aboveground forest production, the findings of this first long‐term field study of annual landscape‐scale productivity raise deep concerns for the future of tropical forests as global warming proceeds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Consumer safety-oriented scheduling of rotating power outages during heat waves

Extreme heat events have widespread effects on power systems, reducing available generation capacity, limiting transmission capabilities, and causing unusual demand patterns on the consumer side. As these combined effects expose bulk transmission systems to potential large-scale blackouts, utilities may be required to schedule and apply rotating outages, by temporarily and alternately disconnecting distribution substations to reduce overload. However, utilities lack mechanisms to inform these events, exacerbating the negative effects of heat waves on affected communities. This paper introduces a novel framework for scheduling rotating outages during heat waves while considering impacts on consumers’ safety. Instead of random sequential load shedding, we propose a methodology to rotate power outages considering a metric that quantifies the indoor overheating risk of groups of consumers during a power outage. The overheating risk is derived from a detailed building simulation using CityBES, where the buildings are modeled based on available data—use type, year built, floor area, number of stories, location—while presence of air conditioning and occupancy are calibrated from smart meter data. Based on the metric, an algorithm to schedule the rotating outages is applied to prioritize feeders for disconnection at each hour according to their overheating risk to meet a utility load reduction target. Applied to two substations and seven feeders in the Portland General Electric territory, the results show that this approach effectively leads to the lowest overheating risk during the resulting outage schedules, with an average 10.1% lower overheating compared to uninformed schedules.

Building thermal simulation↗

Size Ranges of Magnetic Domain States in Tetrataenite

Paleomagnetic studies of meteorites provide unique constraints on the evolution of magnetic fields in the early solar system. These studies rely on the identification of magnetic minerals that can retain stable magnetizations over ≳4.5 billion years (Ga). The ferromagnetic mineral tetrataenite (γ''-Fe 0.5 Ni 0.5 ) is found in iron, stony-iron and chondrite meteorite groups. Nanoscale intergrowths of tetrataenite have been shown to carry records of paleomagnetic fields, although the effect of magnetostatic interactions on their magnetic remanence acquisition remains to be fully understood. Tetrataenite can also occur as isolated, non-interacting, nanoscale grains in many meteorite groups, although the paleomagnetic potential of these grains is particularly poorly understood. Here, we aim to improve our understanding of tetrataenite magnetization to refine our knowledge of existing paleomagnetic analyses and broaden the spectrum of meteorite groups that can be used for future paleomagnetic studies. We present the results of analytical calculations and micromagnetic modeling of isolated tetrataenite grains with various geometries. We find that tetrataenite forms a stable single domain state at grain lengths between 6 and ~160 nm dependent on its elongation. It also possesses a magnetization resistant to viscous remagnetization over the lifetime of the solar system at 293 K. At larger grain sizes, tetrataenite's lowest energy state is a lamellar two-domain state, stable at Ga-scale timescales. Unlike many other magnetic minerals, tetrataenite does not form a single-vortex domain state due to its large uniaxial anisotropy. Our results show that single domain and two-domain tetrataenite grains carry an extremely stable magnetization and therefore are promising for paleomagnetic studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Possible quadrupole-order-driven commensurate-incommensurate phase transition in B20 CoGe

For this study, the B20-type cobalt germanide CoGe was investigated by measuring the specific heat, resistivity, and 59 Co nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). We observed a phase transition at T Q = 13.7 K, evidenced by a very narrow peak of the specific heat and sharp changes of the nuclear spin-spin (T 2 –1 ) and spin-lattice ( T 1 – 1 ) relaxation rates. The fact that the entropy release is extremely small and the Knight shift is almost independent of temperature down to low temperatures as anticipated in a paramagnetic metal indicates that the T Q transition is of nonmagnetic origin. In addition, we detected a crossover scale T 0 ~ 30 K below which the resistivity and the NMR linewidth increase, and T 1 –1 is progressively distributed in space, that is, a static and dynamical spatial inhomogeneity develops. While the order parameter for the T Q transition remains an open question, a group-theoretical analysis suggests that the finite electric quadrupole density arising from the low local site symmetry at cobalt sites could drive the crystal symmetry lowering from the P2 1 3 symmetry that is commensurate to the R3 symmetry with an incommensurate wave vector, which fairly well accounts for the T Q transition. The quadrupole-order-driven commensurate-incommensurate phase transition may be another remarkable phenomenon arising from the structural chirality inherent in the noncentrosymmetric B20 family.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

EQC: Ensembled Quantum Computing for Variational Quantum Algorithms

Variational quantum algorithms (VQA), which are comprised of a classical optimizer and a parameterized quantum circuit, emerges as one of the most promising approaches of harvesting quantum power in the noisy-intermediate-scale-quantum (NISQ) era. However, the deployment of VQAs on today's NISQ devices often faces considerable system noise and prohibitively slow training speeds. On the other hand, the expensive supporting sources and infrastructure make quantum computers extremely keen on high utilization. In this paper, we propose a novel way of thinking about a quantum backend: rather than relying on one physical device which tends to introduce platform-specific noise and bias, a quantum ensemble, which distributes quantum tasks across parallel devices, can serve as a virtualized quantum computer for offering reduced noise levels through an adaptive mixture and also provide significantly improved training speeds through parallelization. With this idea, we build a distributive VQA optimization framework called DVQA, serving as the first effort in adopting parallel quantum devices for cooperative VQA training. To further constraint noise and speed-up convergence, we design a model for individual NISQ devices concerning their properties and running conditions, and propose a weighting mechanism for regularizing the returned gradients. Extensive evaluations on 10 IBM-Q quantum devices using the VQE example show that the distributive VQA training framework can substantially boost the training speed by 10.5x on average (up to 86x and at least 5.2x) with improved training accuracy.

Stein, Samuel A.↗

Coastal Wetland Carbon Sequestration in a Warmer Climate (Final Report)

Coastal wetlands are global hotspots of carbon storage and locations where carbon and nitrogen cycles have a disproportionately large impact on land, water, and air in comparison to the area they occupy. The extremely high rates of carbon sequestration in these systems are the result of complex feedbacks between vegetation and the physical environment. The plant and microbial interactions that drive these feedbacks are absent in ecosystem- and global-scale Earth System models. The goal of this proposal was to address the uncertain response of the coastal carbon sink to climate change, a critical knowledge gap in coastal carbon research and a significant barrier to incorporating coastal wetlands into Earth System Models. The Salt Marsh Accretion Response to Temperature eXperiment (SMARTX) was designed to understand the ecosystem-scale consequences of warming and elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) in tidal wetlands at the coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface. We successfully designed and built a novel whole-ecosystem warming and eCO₂ experiment in a coastal wetland. The gradient design of the warming treatments (+0, +1.7, +3.4, +5.1 ⁰C) allowed us to discover unexpected non-linear and non-additive responses arising from plant-microbe interactions. We concluded that these non-linear responses to warming were the result of plants and microbes responding to temperature at different thresholds, with important consequences for forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and understanding global trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Report of the Frontier for Rare Processes and Precision Measurements

This is the Snowmass 2021 Rare and Precision Frontier Report. The Rare Processes and Precision Measurements Frontier, referred to as the ``Rare and Precision Frontier", or RPF, encompasses searches for extremely rare processes or tiny deviations from the Standard Model (SM) that can be studied with intense sources and high-precision detectors. Our community studies have identified several unique research opportunities that may pin down the scales associated with New Physics (NP) interactions and constrain the couplings of possible new degrees of freedom. Searches for rare flavor transition processes and precision measurements are indispensable probes of flavor and fundamental symmetries, and provide insights into physics that manifests itself at higher energy or through weaker interactions than those directly accessible at high-energy colliders.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Huge ensembles – Part 2: Properties of a huge ensemble of hindcasts generated with spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. In Part 1, we created an ensemble based on spherical Fourier neural operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple checkpoints trained independently from scratch. Based on diagnostics that assess the ensemble's physical fidelity, our ensemble has comparable performance to operational weather forecasting systems. However, it requires orders-of-magnitude fewer computational resources. Here in Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble (HENS), with 7424 members initialized each day of summer 2023. We enumerate the technical requirements for running huge ensembles at this scale. HENS precisely samples the tails of the forecast distribution and presents a detailed sampling of internal variability. HENS has two primary applications: (1) as a large dataset with which to study the statistics and drivers of extreme weather and (2) as a weather forecasting system. For extreme climate statistics, HENS samples events 4σ away from the ensemble mean. At each grid cell, HENS increases the skill of the most accurate ensemble member and enhances coverage of possible future trajectories. As a weather forecasting model, HENS issues extreme weather forecasts with better uncertainty quantification. It also reduces the probability of outlier events, in which the verification value lies outside the ensemble forecast distribution.

Mahesh, Ankur↗

Demonstration and performance testing of extreme-resolution simulations with static meshes on Summit (CPU & GPU) for a parked-turbine configuration and an actuator-line (mid-fidelity model) wind farm configuration (ECP-Q4 FY2020 Milestone Report)

The goal of the ExaWind project is to enable predictive simulations of wind farms comprised of many megawatt-scale turbines situated in complex terrain. Predictive simulations will require computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for which the mesh resolves the geometry of the turbines and captures the rotation and large deflections of blades. Whereas such simulations for a single turbine are arguably petascale class, multi-turbine wind farm simulations will require exascale-class resources. The primary physics codes in the ExaWind simulation environment are Nalu-Wind, an unstructured-grid solver for the acoustically incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, AMR-Wind, a block-structured-grid solver with adaptive mesh refinement capabilities, and OpenFAST, a wind-turbine structural dynamics solver. The Nalu-Wind model consists of the mass-continuity Poisson-type equation for pressure and Helmholtz-type equations for transport of momentum and other scalars. For such modeling approaches, simulation times are dominated by linear-system setup and solution for the continuity and momentum systems. For the ExaWind challenge problem, the moving meshes greatly affect overall solver costs as reinitialization of matrices and recomputation of preconditioners is required at every time step. The choice of overset-mesh methodology to model the moving and non-moving parts of the computational domain introduces constraint equations in the elliptic pressure-Poisson solver. The presence of constraints greatly affects the performance of algebraic multigrid preconditioners.

17 WIND ENERGY↗