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At least 919 records · Page 51

Modeling the impact of GIC neutral blocking devices on distance protection relay operations for transmission lines

Geomagnetic Induced Current (GIC) blocking devices typically include a capacitor on the neutral grounding path of wye-configured transformers. This type of GIC blocking device was designed as an effective countermeasure to prevent possible damages caused on the power grid by geomagnetic storms, and by the slow-varying component of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP). The insertion of a capacitor in the transformer neutral impedes the establishment of GICs in lines terminated with wye-connected transformer windings. With the presence of a capacitively grounded neutral, however, it becomes important to evaluate that no adverse effects are introduced in the general grid operations. In this context, this study investigates the impact of GIC neutral blocking devices on the functionality of distance protection relays for different values of transformer neutral blocking capacitors, and at different transmission line voltages. This study was conducted with a real-time simulation platform, and the simulations were performed by introducing a phase-to-ground fault at different line locations, and by measuring the apparent impedance at the protection relay location. Finally, the results indicated that, for typical values of capacitance considered for GIC neutral blocking devices, the distance protection relay model operates properly, without requiring a modification of the relay settings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Isomeric yield ratios of fission products: A missing piece in reactor antineutrino summation calculations

The calculation of the spectrum of antineutrinos ($\bar{v}_e$) from a reactor is a complicated problem requiring several nuclear data and physics inputs. Many of these have been investigated thoroughly to improve calculations and properly account for uncertainties. One input which has heretofore escaped consideration is the fission-yield distribution between ground and isomeric states. Here, in this work, we explore the effect of incorporating newly evaluated isomeric yield ratios (IYR) for 43 fission products into summation calculations and identify the disproportionate importance of certain isotopes, particularly at higher energies. Our analysis indicates that updated IYRs contribute to a significant increase in the $\bar{v}_e$ spectrum around and above 7 MeV, with increases of more than 50% at higher energies. Through a detailed sensitivity study, we highlight a number of isotopes for which the IYR has a substantial effect on the $\bar{v}_e$ spectrum. This work stresses the critical role of isomeric yields in calculations of reactor $\bar{v}_e$ spectra and points to the necessity for their accurate experimental determination, especially for key fission products, in order to refine our understanding and address the observed anomalies between measured and calculated $\bar{v}_e$ spectra.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Isomeric Yield Ratios of fission products: a missing piece in reactor antineutrino summation calculations

The calculation of the spectrum of antineutrinos ( $\overline{V}$ e ) from a reactor is a complicated problem requiring several nuclear data and physics inputs. Many of these have been investigated thoroughly to improve calculations and properly account for uncertainties. One input which has heretofore escaped consideration is the fission yield distribution between ground and isomeric states. In this work, we explore the effect of incorporating newly evaluated isomeric yield ratios (IYR) for 43 fission products into summation calculations and identify the disproportionate importance of certain isotopes, particularly at higher energies. Our analysis indicates that updated IYRs contribute to a significant increase in the $\overline{V}$ e spectrum around and above 7 MeV, with increases of more than 50% at higher energies. Through a detailed sensitivity study, we highlight a number of isotopes for which the IYR has a substantial effect on the $\overline{V}$ e spectrum. This work stresses the critical role of isomeric yields in calculations of reactor $\overline{V}$ e spectra and points to the necessity for their accurate experimental determination, especially for key fission products, in order to refine our understanding and address the observed anomalies between measured and calculated $\overline{V}$ e spectra.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Optimizing Grid-interactive Efficient Building Designs with Stacked Value Streams

Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) are those characterized by the combination of energy efficiency and demand flexibility with smart technologies and communications to not only deliver greater affordability and comfort to buildings, but also help utilities manage grid operations and lower system costs. This paper presents an innovative techno-economic assessment framework to effectively examine different GEB design options, explore various use cases, define technically achievable benefits, and thereby assist in informed decision-making. In particular, building load flexibility, thermal storage, and battery energy storage are considered. Advanced optimal dispatch problem is formulated to maximize the stacked value streams from multiple, competing use cases, subject to the physical capabilities and operational flexibility associated with different designs and configurations. Comprehensive case studies were performed for a real-world building to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different GEB designs and offer in-depth insights. It was found that the proposed assessment method could effectively capture the costs and benefits linked to each GEB design option. Furthermore, the study revealed that outage mitigation and demand response are the two most significant sources of benefits for GEBs.

Ma, Xu↗

The development and application of the stirred‐reactor coupon analysis (SRCA) test method

A new technique, termed the stirred‐reactor coupon analysis (SRCA) method, has been developed to measure the rate of glass dissolution in forward‐rate conditions. Monolithic glass coupons are partially masked with an inert material before placement in a large volume of well‐mixed solution with known chemistry and temperature for a predetermined duration. After the test, the mask is removed, and the difference in step height between the protected area and the exposed corroded portions of the sample coupon is measured to determine the extent of glass dissolution. The step height is converted to a rate measurement using the test duration and glass density. Test parameters such as sample surface preparation and test duration were evaluated to determine their effects on the measured rates. Additionally, results from an interlaboratory study (ILS) consisting of 12 laboratories from 11 different institutions are presented, where each laboratory performed 12 independent tests. When removing experimental outlier data, the 95% reproducibility limits for the SRCA method has no statistical difference with previously published standardized test methods used to determine the forward rate of glass dissolution. Overall, this paper describes steps necessary to perform the test method and provides the statistical calculations to evaluate test accuracy.

chemical durability↗

Risk-Informed Condition Evaluation of Solar-centered Energy Generation and Distribution Networks through Bayesian Learning and Inference

We develop a methodology based on Bayesian inference over Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) to understand and quantify risk in solar-centered grids using targeted measurements and learned system behavior. Being non-prescriptive but, rather, able to infer system behavior and, ultimately, address risk queries from data, our machine learning-type paradigm is tailored for diverse topologies and threat scenarios often associated with distributed energy generation and photovoltaic distributed energy resources (PV-DERs) in particular. We describe algorithmic processes for: (i) learning the structure of PGMs that result from attack-prone PV-DER-proliferated distribution systems, (ii) quantifying cause-effect relationships, and (iii) evaluating risk queries based on diverse evidence. The contributions are illustrated on a residential grid subject to output impairment attacks on its PV-DER infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

High-Fluence Active Irradiation and Combined Effects Testing of Sapphire Optical Fiber Distributed Temperature Sensors

The goal of this work was to investigate the in-core performance of sapphire optical fiber temperature sensors and to develop clad sapphire optical fibers for in-core instrumentation. We fabricated clad sapphire optical fibers and evaluated the distributed sensing performance of these sensors via optical backscatter reflectometry under high fluence and combined radiation and temperature effects. A series of irradiations was completed to evaluate the effect of irradiation on sapphire optical fiber temperature sensors and to determine the operational limits of these sensors. (1) Objective 1: Fabricate sapphire optical fiber sensors. (2) Objective 2: Evaluate the clad sapphire fiber to verify single-mode behavior and determine and characterize the light modes supported by optical fibers. (3) Objective 3: Characterize the in-core temperature sensing of sapphire optical fiber, as well as the combined temperature and irradiation effects. (4) Objective 4: Evaluate the lifetime and performance of the sensor under irradiation to high neutron fluence. Objectives 1, 2, and 3 were completed during the first 2 years of the project. Due to the Covid pandemic, Objective 4, a high-fluence irradiation performed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Research Reactor (MITR), was delayed, as partner facilities were subject to mandatory shutdowns and required a 1 year, no-cost extension. This irradiation was eventually completed on December 12, 2022. This work indicates that sapphire optical fiber sensors may be a solution for ultra-high-temperature applications in which traditional silica optical fibers are prone to fail. Sapphire sensors are potentially suitable for experiments featuring temperatures above 700°C for long periods of time, or for any length of time above 1000°C. Experiments featuring a low total fluence, such as irradiations conducted in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility, also represent good applications for sapphire optical sensors. Additional work is required to characterize the sapphire fiber cladding performance, which falls outside the scope of this project, as well as the effects of high temperatures on the response of the fiber. A comprehensive material study is recommended as future work to evaluate the attenuation in sapphire under irradiation, and how that attenuation changes with irradiation temperature. The drift and attenuation in the fiber at temperatures of up to 1600°C and a total fluence of up to 2.9 x 10 17 n/cm 2 was minimal, and the fibers returned to baseline after being heated to 1600°C under irradiation. This is promising for the future use of sapphire optical fibers in advanced reactors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Internal defect detection and characterization of samarium-cobalt sintered magnets by ultrasonic testing technique

Excessive quantities of samarium-cobalt (Sm-Co) magnet material are being scrapped needlessly due to a lack of understanding of inhomogeneity distribution and unacceptable internal defects. If there is a way to identify, locate, characterize and when needed separate the defective portions of magnet material, utilization can be increased and product quality improved. Further, the magnets’ magnetic and mechanical performance can be improved by reducing the occurrence of internal defects. This paper reports on a cost-effective and efficient nondestructive evaluation method based on an ultrasonic testing (UT) technique applied for detecting and characterizing internal defects in Sm-Co sintered magnets. Applying the UT technique will allow users to comprehensively analyze internal defects, such as inclusions, porosity, microcracks, and other structural irregularities, check for homogeneity and anomalous regions and give the locations of these internal anomalies and defects within the Sm-Co sintered magnets. The UT technique can also be applied to other rare-earth permanent magnets, such as sintered or die-upset neodymium-iron-boron (Nd-Fe-B) magnets. The UT technique can effectively guide quality control and acceptable product selection, in addition to optimizing the magnet alloy design and production processes. Therefore, it can facilitate the improvement of magnet manufacturing efficiency and machinability, reduce scrap, prolong service life, increase the use of what would be post-production waste, and enhance product reuse and recycling at end-of-life disposition.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Ab-Initio Investigation of Finite Size Effects in Rutile Titania Nanoparticles with Semilocal and Nonlocal Density Functionals

In this work, we employ hybrid and generalized gradient approximation (GGA) level density functional theory (DFT) calculations to investigate the convergence of surface properties and electronic gap of rutile titania nanoparticles with particle size. The surface energies and electronic gaps are calculated for cuboidal particles with minimum dimension ranging from 3.7 Angstrom (24 atoms) to 10.3 Angstrom (384 atoms) using a highly-parallel real-space DFT code to enable hybrid level DFT calculations of larger nanoparticles than are typically practical. We deconvolute the geometric and electronic finite size effects in surface energy, and evaluate the influence of defects on electronic gap and density of states (DOS). The electronic finite size effects in surface energy vanish when the minimum length scale of the nanoparticles becomes greater than 10 Angstrom. We show that this length scale is consistent with a computationally efficient numerical analysis of the characteristic length scale of electronic interactions. The surface energy of nanoparticles having minimum dimension beyond this characteristic length can be approximated using slab calculations that account for the geometric defects. In contrast, the finite size effects on the electronic gap and DOS is highly dependent on the shape and size of these particles. Furthermore, the DOS for cuboidal particles and more realistic particles constructed using the Wulff algorithm reveal that defect states within the electronic gap play a key role in determining the eigen value distribution of nanoparticles and the electronic gap does not converge to the bulk limit for the particle sizes investigated.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Summary of Geometric Parameters and Their Effects on Performance of U-10Mo Fuel Plates

A monolithic plate-type fuel system has been under development to convert high-performance test reactors from highly enriched uranium to low-enrichment uranium fuels and is now moving into the qualification phase, a predecessor to the timely conversion of the target reactors. To qualify this fuel system, the plates must meet safety standards and perform well in a reactor. The plates must maintain mechanical integrity, exhibit geometric stability, and have stable and predictable in-reactor behavior. The requirement to maintain mechanical integrity under normal operating conditions is primarily demonstrated by successful testing. However, each high-performance reactor employs a distinct design, resulting in distinct plate geometries, with unique features, attributes, irregularities, and tolerances. Due to the abundance of such distinct geometric varieties, a single “generic” plate geometry capturing all extremes is not achievable. It is also impractical to test each of these proposed designs in a reactor. This limitation necessitates cautious evaluations since the thermomechanical response of a plate with a certain geometry may not be representative for a plate with a significantly different geometry. To address concerns related to in-reactor plate performance, large set of sensitivity studies were performed. These parametric studies aimed to better understand irradiation performance, while evaluating the sensitivity of results to various modeling inputs, including geometric, operational, and material parameters. This work studied selected geometric parameters based on provided fuel specifications and performed a series of parametric simulations. The resulting temperature, displacement, and stress strains were comparatively evaluated to determine the effects of various geometric parameters. This draft provides a “high-level summary” of our parametric sensitivity studies and summarizes the key findings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Decoupling the effects of texture and composition on magnetic properties of Fe-Si sheet processed by shear deformation

Soft magnetic Fe-Si alloys (electrical steels) possess exceptional functional properties such as high permeability, low coercivity, and low core loss, which generally improve with increasing Si content in the alloy. However, Fe-Si alloys containing > 3.5 wt% Si are also characterized by prohibitively low workability and poor ductility that have prevented their efficient commercial production in sheet form by rolling. This has limited their use for improving efficiency of motors and transformers. In this study, hybrid cutting-extrusion (HCE) is used as a single-step thermomechanical processing method to produce continuous Fe-Si alloy sheet with high Si compositions of 4 wt% to 6.5 wt%. HCE sheet is shown to have a homogeneous annealed grain structure and simple-shear crystallographic textures. By controlling the HCE deformation path, varied crystallographic shear textures are created in the sheet. Quasi-static magnetic properties of the HCE sheet are evaluated to decouple the effects of sheet texture and Si composition on resultant permeability and coercivity properties. The results suggest that HCE, with suitable process scaling, is a viable route for production of high-Si content electrical steel sheet for next-generation motors and transformers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Investigation of powertrain system decarbonization using electrically assisted turbocharging and hybridization in off-road vehicles

In recent years, the causes, effects, and existential threat of a global anthropogenic climate shift have drawn significant attention and stimulated mitigation efforts from all genres of scientific, political, and industrial bodies. The greenhouse effect and the detrimental environmental impact of excess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, like carbon dioxide, is well studied and targeted as the primary culprit for aversive action. However, some fields exist where reducing GHG emissions is met by considerable challenges. One such field is the production and operations of off-road vehicles. Applications of these vehicles are highly diverse and are often characterized by rugged, especially transient, and power intensive duty cycles that make one-fits-all vehicle configuration solutions impractical. This research surveys existing literature to identify the modern technologies packages and challenges that face development and configuration of powertrain systems which currently navigate the regulated emissions and unique duty cycle requirements of this market space. A novel powertrain concept is proposed and evaluated with respect to the pinnacle objectives of load performance improvement, criteria pollutant reduction, and reducing the life cycle GHG intensity of its operation. A sure-fire path to vehicular GHG reduction is through improving the fuel efficiency of internal combustion engines (ICEs), an entrenched component of the off-road vehicle sector. Unfortunately, this is more easily said than done. An approach that has proven successful in this endeavor is engine downsizing and turbocharging, where a larger engine is replaced with a smaller one with added air system boosting via turbocharger to reduce frictional and pumping losses while also enabling access to additional fuel energy. However, practical realization of these potential benefits is often impeded by the transient response capability of the smaller engine across the operating space. For this reason, downsized ICE powertrains have turned to electrified forced induction systems (EFISs) for a decoupling of exhaust energy and engine speed from boost capability. Platformed on 48V hybrid technology, these systems introduce the need for more sophisticated controls around the engine gas-exchange process for the management of boost performance and exhaust gas emissions. On this account, simulation studies utilizing a GT-POWER model of a turbocharged 4.5 L engine outfit with an EFIS using an electrically driven compressor (eBooster®) are conducted to provide insight into the performance of this air handling architecture on an off-road engine. The results show that improvement in transient torque response time in sync with reduction in engine-out soot and NOx emissions are possible with an engine recalibration that leverages the transient air-fuel ratio authority of the eBooster®. Benefits are further demonstrated when duty cycle simulations of the 48V mild-hybrid engine concept are exercised, showing an acute decrease in cumulative fuel usage and soot production. Powertrain hybridization is another technological pathway achieving pronounced GHG reduction successes in modern on-road vehicle applications through integration of Li-ion battery technology. In the off-road vehicle segment, a review of available literature concludes that hybridized architectures are present but generally lack the depth of technologies that have both high specific energy and power capabilities, and thus are limited in their inclusion of Li-ion batteries for ICE assistance and enhanced energy storage capability. Therefore, building on the mild-hybrid engine results, the downsized and eBoosted engine concept was integrated into a larger high-voltage battery-hybrid series-electric powertrain system. Hybrid powertrain parameter sensitivity studies were carried out in a numerical charge-sustaining framework, providing novel insights into power flows between the battery and the engine and how their respective capabilities and operation contribute to GHG and criteria pollutant emissions of diverse duty cycles. Application of supervisory power management introduced robustness into the power sourcing and battery SOC control process and showed that optimum specification of battery properties can yield synergies between GHG emissions and battery energy capacity. Furthermore, examination of recent literature on Li-ion batteries has shown that pack manufacturing is a highly energy intensive process, thereby producing considerable quantities of GHGs that scale with energy storage capacity. Also scaling with a battery’s energy storage capacity is its investment cost. In consideration of these factors, an inclusive technoeconomic and GHG life cycle analysis is conducted. This analysis systematically compares the carbon footprint and total cost of ownership associated with the proposed hybrid powertrain concept to reference and alternative powertrain configurations, facilitating a thorough evaluation of the decarbonization effectiveness and economic viability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

27 AlNMR chemical shift of Al(OH)$^{-}_{4}$ calculated from first principles: Assessment of error cancellation in chemically distinct reference and target systems

Predicting accurate nuclear magnetic resonance chemical shieldings relies upon cancellation of different types of errors between the theoretically calculated shielding constant of the analyte of interest and the reference. Often, the intrinsic error in computed shieldings due to basis sets, approximations in the Hamiltonian, description of the wave function, and dynamic effects is nearly identical between the analyte and reference, yet if the electronic structure or sensitivity to local environment differs dramatically, this cannot be taken for granted. Detailed prior work has examined the octahedral trivalent cation Al(H 2 O)$^{3+}_{6}$, accounting for ab initio intrinsic errors. However, the use of this species as a reference for the chemically distinct tetrahedral anion Al(OH)$^{-}_{4}$ requires an understanding of how these errors cancel, in order to define the limits of accurately predicting 27 Al chemical shielding in Al(OH)$^{-}_{4}$. In this work, we estimate the absolute shielding of the 27 Al nucleus in Al(OH)$^{-}_{4}$ at the coupled cluster level (515.1± 5.3 ppm). Shielding sensitivity to the choice of method approximation and atomic basis sets used has been evaluated. Solvent and thermal effects are assessed through ensemble averaging techniques using ab-initio molecular dynamics. The contribution of each type of intrinsic error is assessed for the Al(H 2 O)$^{3+}_{6}$ and Al(OH)$^{-}_{4}$ ions, revealing significant differences that fundamentally hamper the ability to accurately calculate the 27 Al chemical shift of Al(OH)$^{-}_{4}$ from first principles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A self-adjusting platinum surface for acetone hydrogenation

We show that platinum displays a self-adjusting surface that is active for the hydrogenation of acetone over a wide range of reaction conditions. Reaction kinetics measurements under steady-state and transient conditions at temperatures near 350 K, electronic structure calculations employing density-functional theory, and microkinetic modeling were employed to study this behavior over supported platinum catalysts. The importance of surface coverage effects was highlighted by evaluating the transient response of isopropanol formation following either removal of the reactant ketone from the feed, or its substitution with a similarly structured species. The extent to which adsorbed intermediates that lead to the formation of isopropanol were removed from the catalytic surface was observed to be higher following ketone substitution in comparison to its removal, indicating that surface species leading to isopropanol become more strongly adsorbed on the surface as the coverage decreases during the desorption experiment. This phenomenon occurs as a result of adsorbate–adsorbate repulsive interactions on the catalyst surface which adjust with respect to the reaction conditions. Reaction kinetics parameters obtained experimentally were in agreement with those predicted by microkinetic modeling when the binding energies, activation energies, and entropies of adsorbed species and transition states were expressed as a function of surface coverage of the most abundant surface intermediate (MASI, C 3 H 6 OH*). It is important that these effects of surface coverage be incorporated dynamically in the microkinetic model (e.g., using the Bragg–Williams approximation) to describe the experimental data over a wide range of acetone partial pressures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Long-term variability in immersion-mode marine ice-nucleating particles from climate model simulations and observations

Abstract. Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in the Southern Ocean (SO) atmosphere have significant impacts on cloud radiative and microphysical properties. Yet, INP prediction skill in climate models remains poorly understood, in part because of the lack of long-term measurements. Here we show, for the first time, how model-simulated INP concentrations compare with year-round INP measurements during the Macquarie Island Cloud Radiation Experiment (MICRE) campaign from 2017–2018. We simulate immersion-mode INP concentrations using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) by combining simulated aerosols with recently developed deterministic INP parameterizations and the native classical nucleation theory (CNT) for mineral dust in E3SMv1. Because MICRE did not collect aerosol measurements of super-micron particles, which are more effective ice nucleators, we evaluate the model's aerosol fields at other high-latitude sites using long-term in situ observations of dust and sea spray aerosol. We find that the model underestimates dust and overestimates sea spray aerosol concentrations by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude for most of the high-latitude sites in the Southern Hemisphere. We next compare predicted INP concentrations with concentrations of INPs collected on filter samples (typically for 2 or 3 d) and processed offline using the Colorado State University ice spectrometer (IS) in immersion freezing mode. We find that when deterministic parameterizations for both dust and sea spray INPs are used, simulated INPs are within a factor of 10 of observed INPs more than 60 % of the time during summer. Our results also indicate that the E3SM's current treatment of mineral dust immersion freezing in the SO is impacted by compensating biases – an underprediction of dust amount was compensated by an overprediction of its effectiveness as INPs. We also perform idealized droplet freezing experiments to quantify the implications of the time-dependent behavior assumed by the E3SM's CNT-parameterization and compare with the ice spectrometer observations. We find that the E3SM CNT 10 s diagnostic used in this study is a reasonable approximation of the exact formulation of CNT, when applied to ice spectrometer measurements in low-INP conditions similar to Macquarie Island. However, the linearized 10 s diagnostic underestimates the exact formula by an order of magnitude or more in places with high-INP conditions like the Sahara. Overall, our findings suggest that it is important to correct the biases in E3SM's simulated dust life cycle and update E3SM's INP parameterizations. INP prediction errors of 2 to 3 orders of magnitude can have considerable impacts on the simulated cloud and radiative properties in global climate models. On comparing INP concentrations during MICRE against ship-based campaigns, Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) and Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition (ACE), we find that INPs from the latter are significantly higher only in regions closer to Macquarie Island. This alludes to the fact that physical, chemical and biological processes affecting INP concentrations as stimulated by the island could be partly responsible for the high INP concentrations observed at Macquarie Island during the MICRE campaign. Therefore, improvements to both aerosol simulation and INP parameterizations are required to adequately simulate INPs and their cloud impacts in E3SM. It will be helpful to include a parallel measurement of the size-resolved aerosol composition and explore opportunities for long-term measurement platforms in future field campaigns studying INP sources in remote marine regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of solar geoengineering on temperature-attributable mortality

Decisions about solar geoengineering (SG) entail risk–risk tradeoffs between the direct risks of SG and SG’s ability to reduce climate risks. Quantitative comparisons between these risks are needed to inform public policy. We evaluate idealized SG’s effectiveness in reducing deaths from warming using two climate models and an econometric analysis of temperature-attributable mortality. We find SG’s impact on temperature-attributable mortality is uneven with decreases for hotter, poorer regions and increases in cooler, richer regions. Relative to no SG, global mortality is reduced by over 400,000 deaths annually [90% CI: (−1.2 million,2.7 million)] for cooling of 1 °C from 2.5 °C above preindustrial in 2080. We find no evidence that mortality reduction achieved by SG is smaller than the reduction from equivalent cooling by emissions reductions. Combining our estimates with existing estimates of sulphate aerosol injection direct mortality risk from air quality and UV-attributable cancer enables the first quantitative risk-risk comparison of SG. We estimate with 61% probability that the mortality benefits of cooling outweigh these direct SG risks. We find the benefits outweigh these risks by 13 times for our central estimates, or 4 deaths per 100,000 per 1 °C per year [90% CI: (−11,23)]. This is not a comprehensive evaluation of the risk–risk tradeoffs around SG, yet by comparing some of the most consequential impacts on human welfare it is a useful first step. While these findings are robust to a variety of alternative assumptions, considerable uncertainties remain and require further investigation.

Harding, Anthony (ORCID:0000000262898253)↗

Diminishing marginal effect in estimating the dissolved organic carbon export from a watershed

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) can be initially moved from soils to inland waters with surface runoff, and then mineralized, buried, or eventually delivered to the coastal ocean. This land-to-ocean phase of the DOC flux must be accounted for to comprehensively understand the global carbon cycle. To estimate the terrestrial-aquatic DOC leaching, calculating the product of the riverine DOC concentration and the corresponding river discharge measured at the watershed outlet is a common method. However, it is challenging to frequently and exactly record riverine DOC concentrations, thus the relationship between DOC concentrations and discharges (C-Q relationship) are established and used to interpolate the time-series of DOC concentrations. We found that the widely used time-dependent and time-independent C-Q regression models are weak in representing their altered relationship when the discharge is extremely high, which was named as diminishing marginal effect. In this study, we evaluated the performance of two C-Q regression models and discussed possible reasons for the diminishing marginal effect. We suggest that repeated and long-term measurements of the DOC concentration are required to adequately analyze their relationships, especially during the early spring and seasons with heavy precipitations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TEAMER - Field Demonstration of MarineSitu’s Marine Energy Monitoring Tools - CRADA 664 (Abstract)

In order to effectively monitor for marine life around marine energy devices and thus minimize the risk of collision, multiple sensors working in coordination and augmented with around-the-clock automated monitoring algorithms need to be installed in challenging high-energy tidal and wave environments. Such systems are often too expensive for widespread adoption, or lack sufficient sensors or smarts to enable around-the-clock, real-time monitoring without human involvement. MarineSitu has been working to tackle this problem by developing a low-cost, combined sonar and stereo camera sensor array with connected real-time AI-based algorithms for automatically detecting marine life in these marine energy suitable environments. In this TEAMER project with Pacific Northwest National Lab (PNNL), MarineSitu will be testing this novel sensor system for the first time in the high-energy tidal channel environment at PNNL’s Marine and Coastal Research Lab. Throughout this deployment, MarineSitu will be monitoring their system and running analytics on the sensor’s data in real-time. Meanwhile, PNNL Data Scientists and Ocean Engineers, will be evaluating the system’s effectiveness and ease of use both as a tool for plug-and-play environmental monitoring and novel environmental monitoring research. In doing so, the team will improve MarineSitu’s system and software, produce insightful data products, and develop novel visualizations and AI algorithms for combining and analyzing the data produced by systems like MarineSitu’s.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗