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NASA NTRS2015

Early Mars Climate Modeling and the Faint Young Sun Paradox.

Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. Liquid water is not stable on its surface. There are no lakes, seas, or oceans, and precipitation falls as snowfall. Yet early in its history during the Noachian epoch, there is geological and mineralogical evidence that liquid water from rainfall flowed on its surface creating drainage systems, lakes, and - possibly - seas and oceans. More recent observations by Curiosity in Gale crater hint that such conditions may have persited into the Hesperian. The implication is that early Mars had a wamer climate than it does today as a result of a thicker atmosphere with a more powerful greenhouse effect capable of producing an active hydrological cycle with rainfall, runoff, and evaporation. Since Mariner 9 began accumulating such evidence, researchers have been trying to understand what kind of a climate system could have created greenhouse conditions favorable for liquid water. Unfortunately, the problem is not yet solved.

greenhouse gases↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Visual Impairment Intracranial Pressure Syndrome in Long Duration NASA Astronauts: An Integrated Approach

The Visual Impairment Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome is currently NASA's number one human space flight risk. The syndrome, which is related to microgravity exposure, manifests with changes in visual acuity (hyperopic shifts, scotomas), changes in eye structure (optic disc edema, choroidal folds, cotton wool spots, globe flattening, and distended optic nerve sheaths). In some cases, elevated cerebrospinal fluid pressure has been documented postflight reflecting increased intracranial pressure (ICP). While the eye appears to be the main affected end organ of this syndrome, the ocular affects are thought to be related to the effect of cephalad fluid shift on the vascular system and the central nervous system. The leading hypotheses for the development of VIIP involve microgravity induced head-ward fluid shifts along with a loss of gravity-assisted drainage of venous blood from the brain, both leading to cephalic congestion and increased ICP. Although not all crewmembers have manifested clinical signs or symptoms of the VIIP syndrome, it is assumed that all astronauts exposed to microgravity have some degree of ICP elevation in-flight. Prolonged elevations of ICP can cause long-term reduced visual acuity and loss of peripheral visual fields, and has been reported to cause mild cognitive impairment in the analog terrestrial population of Idiopathic Intracranial Hypertension (IIH). These potentially irreversible health consequences underscore the importance of identifying the factors that lead to this syndrome and mitigating them.

Otto, C. A.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Epidemiologic and Environmental Risk Factors of Rift Valley Fever in Southern Africa from 2008 to 2011

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks have been associated with periods of widespread and above normal rainfall over several months. Knowledge on the environmental factors influencing disease transmission dynamics has provided the basis for developing models to predict RVF outbreaks in Africa. From 2008 to 2011, South Africa experienced the worst wave of RVF outbreaks in almost 40 years. We investigated rainfall associated environmental factors in southern Africa preceding these outbreaks. Methods: RVF epizootic records obtained from the World Animal Health Information Database (WAHID), documenting livestock species affected, location, and time, were analyzed. Environmental variables including rainfall and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data were collected and assessed in outbreak regions to understand the underlying drivers of the outbreaks. Results: The predominant domestic vertebrate species affected in 2008 and 2009 were cattle, when outbreaks were concentrated in the eastern provinces of South Africa. In 2010 and 2011, outbreaks occurred in the interior and southern provinces affecting over 16,000 sheep. The highest number of cases occurred between January and April but epidemics occurred in different regions every year, moving from the northeast of South Africa toward the southwest with each progressing year. The outbreaks showed a pattern of increased rainfall preceding epizootics ranging from 9 to 152 days; however, NDVI and rainfall were less correlated with the start of the outbreaks than has been observed in eastern Africa. Conclusions: Analyses of the multiyear RVF outbreaks of 2008 to 2011 in South Africa indicated that rainfall, NDVI, and other environmental and geographical factors, such as land use, drainage, and topography, play a role in disease emergence. Current and future investigations into these factors will be able to contribute to improving spatial accuracy of models to map risk areas, allowing adequate time for preparation and prevention before an outbreak occurs.

Rift Valley Fever (RVF)↗

NASA NTRS2015

Groundwater Variability Across Temporal and Spatial Scales in the Central and Northeastern U.S.

Depth-to-water measurements from 181 monitoring wells in unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in nine regions of the central and northeastern U.S. were analyzed. Groundwater storage exhibited strong seasonal variations in all regions, with peaks in spring and lows in autumn, and its interannual variability was nearly unbounded, such that the impacts of droughts, floods, and excessive pumping could persist for many years. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies (deviations from the long term mean) increases as a power function of extent scale (square root of area). That relationship, which is linear on a log-log graph, is common to other hydrological variables but had never before been shown with groundwater data. We describe how the derived power function can be used to determine the number of wells needed to estimate regional mean groundwater storage anomalies with a desired level of accuracy, or to assess uncertainty in regional mean estimates from a set number of observations. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies within a region often increases with the absolute value of the regional mean anomaly, the opposite of the relationship between soil moisture spatial variability and mean. Recharge (drainage from the lowest model soil layer) simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was compatible with observed monthly groundwater storage anomalies and month-to-month changes in groundwater storage.

water cycle↗

NASA NTRS2016

Derivation and Validation of Supraglacial Lake Volumes on the Greenland Ice Sheet from High-Resolution Satellite Imagery

Supraglacial meltwater lakes on the western Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) are critical components of its surface hydrology and surface mass balance, and they also affect its ice dynamics. Estimates of lake volume, however, are limited by the availability of in situ measurements of water depth,which in turn also limits the assessment of remotely sensed lake depths. Given the logistical difficulty of collecting physical bathymetric measurements, methods relying upon in situ data are generally restricted to small areas and thus their application to largescale studies is difficult to validate. Here, we produce and validate spaceborne estimates of supraglacial lake volumes across a relatively large area (1250 km(exp 2) of west Greenland's ablation region using data acquired by the WorldView-2 (WV-2) sensor, making use of both its stereo-imaging capability and its meter-scale resolution. We employ spectrally-derived depth retrieval models, which are either based on absolute reflectance (single-channel model) or a ratio of spectral reflectances in two bands (dual-channel model). These models are calibrated by usingWV-2multispectral imagery acquired early in the melt season and depth measurements from a high resolutionWV-2 DEM over the same lake basins when devoid of water. The calibrated models are then validated with different lakes in the area, for which we determined depths. Lake depth estimates based on measurements recorded in WV-2's blue (450-510 nm), green (510-580 nm), and red (630-690 nm) bands and dual-channel modes (blue/green, blue/red, and green/red band combinations) had near-zero bias, an average root-mean-squared deviation of 0.4 m (relative to post-drainage DEMs), and an average volumetric error of b1%. The approach outlined in this study - image-based calibration of depth-retrieval models - significantly improves spaceborne supraglacial bathymetry retrievals, which are completely independent from in situ measurements.

Spectrally-based depth-retrieval models↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Computational Fluid Dynamics Study of Swirling Flow Reduction by Using Anti-Vortex Baffle

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate proposed anti-vortex design in suppressing swirling flow during US burn. APPROACH: Include two major body forces in the analysis a)Vehicle acceleration (all three components); b)Vehicle maneuvers (roll, pitch, and yaw). Perform two drainage analyses of Ares I LOX tank using 6 DOF body forces predicted by GN&C analysis (Guidance Navigation and Control) during vehicle ascent: one with baffle, one without baffle. MODEL: Use Ares I defined geometry. O-Grid for easy fitting of baffle. In this preliminary analysis the holes are sealed. Use whole 360 deg. model with no assumption of symmetry or cyclic boundary conditions. Read in 6DOF data vs time from a file.

Yang, H. Q.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Hydrological Modeling of the Jezero Crater Outlet-Forming Flood

Abundant evidence exists for lakes on Mars both from orbital observations [e.g., 1-3] and in situ exploration [e.g., 4-5]. These lakes can be divided into two classes: those that were hydrologically closed, so their source valley(s) terminated at the basin [3], and those that were hydrologically open, where there was sufficient flow from inlet valley(s) to cause the lake to breach and form an outlet valley [2]. It is easier to be confident from orbital data alone that a standing body of water must have existed in open basins, because there is no other way for their perched outlet valleys to form. The majority of basins fed by valley networks, rather than by isolated inlet valleys, are open [6], with some important exceptions (e.g., Gale Crater). Jezero crater (Fig. 1) is one of the most well-studied open basin paleolakes on Mars, with a breach that re-mains well above the lowest part of the crater floor, and two sedimentary fans at its northwestern margin that are likely deltaic in origin [7-9]. CRISM observations of these sediments indicate they host a variety of alteration minerals [9-11], including smectite and carbonate, and both the mineralogy of the sediments and their settings suggest they have a strong potential for preserving organic materials [10]. As a result, Jezero is a strong candidate landing site for the Mars 2020 rover. Approximate formative discharges have been estimated for its well-preserved western fan (Q approximately 500m3/s) [7], but to our knowledge, no estimates for the dis-charges associated with formation and incision of its outlet valley have been presented. Indeed, only a few studies [e.g., 12-14] have attempted to reconstruct the formation of outlet breaches broadly similar to Jezero anywhere on Mars, despite the apparent commonality of basins with large outlets [e.g., 2]. The outlet valley formed as a dam breach when the lake overflowed. In such an event, the growth and incision of the breach is directly coupled to flood discharge. In the case of Jezero, the discharge through the breach eventually lacked the energy needed to erode through the dam further, preventing complete drainage of the lake. After the initial flood, further incision can take place if additional water flows into, and thus out of, the hydrologically open lake, though the rate of this erosion occurs under more typical fluvial conditions. Despite this qualitative understanding of the process, it is useful to explore numerically what range of model parameters are potentially consistent with obser-vations of the outlet. We ultimately seek to address questions that include: (1) What was the flood hydro-graph?, (2) What sediment transport processes were involved and what can we infer about the erosion process? (3) Can most or all of the Jezero outlet's morphology be explained as a consequence of catastrophic formation, or is additional longer-term erosion required?

geology↗

NASA NTRS2017

Washboard Terrain on Pluto

Washboard texture or patterning consists of fields of parallel to sub-parallel ridges typically spaced ~1-2 km crest to crest and a few 100 m in amplitude (Fig. 4a in Moore et al., 2016, Science, 351, 1284-1293). For the most part, underlying topography can be easily discerned. We will refer to discrete, well-bounded patches of these landforms as Washboard Terrain (WT). WT is observed to occur along the rim, and just beyond the rim, of Sputnik basin from the West to NNW. Where it is seen in high-resolution data, it has clearly defined limits, beyond which it would be able to be seen if it were there. WT doesn't occur at very low latitudes or very high latitudes (ranging from 22degN to 62degN). WT seems to occur most conspicuously on relatively level, gently sloping terrain. It is restricted to elevations between approximately 2 km to less than +1.5 km (i.e. not at high elevations). The most noticeable regional aspect of the area in which WT occurs is the sinuous valley network, which is suspected to have been formed, or at least substantially modified, by glaciation. WT also appears to occur mainly on an intermediate-albedo reddish material, where seen in enhanced color data. Where it occurs in level terrain, WT tends to trend ENE - there doesn't seem to be a strong local control of its orientation in response to valley drainage directions. WT can display a greater range of orientations where it occurs in higher-relief (not higher elevation) settings such as spurs. WT appears superposed on very ancient landscapes, but is itself cratered locally by clusters of small (approximately 1-3 km) craters, which may be secondaries. This implies that WT may be intermediate in age. Of several working hypotheses, we currently provisionally favor that WT may be akin to terrestrial recessional moraines (or de Geer moraines) associated with the retreat of a higher stand of N2 glaciation that once overfilled Sputnik basin. These putative moraine features may owe their spacing to superseasonal retreat on Milankovitch timescales of approximately 1 Ma. If this hypothesis has validity, then perhaps the intermediate-albedo reddish material may be akin to ground moraine deposits.

Moore, Jeffrey M.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Estrous Cyclicity in Mice During Simulated Weightlessness

Hindlimb unloading (HU) is a rodent model system used to simulate weightlessness experienced in space. However, some effects of this approach on rodent physiology are under-studied, specifically the effects on ovarian estrogen production which drives the estrous cycle. To resolve this deficiency, we conducted a ground-based validation study using the HU model, while monitoring estrous cycles in 16-weeks-old female C57BL6 mice. Animals were exposed to HU for 12 days following a 3 day HU cage acclimation period, and estrous cycling was analyzed in HU animals (n=22), normally loaded HU Cage Pair-Fed controls (CPF; n=22), and Vivarium controls fed ad libitum (VIV; n=10). Pair feeding was used to control for potential nutritional deficits on ovarian function. Vaginal cells were sampled daily in all mice via saline lavage. Cells were dried and stained with crystal violet, and the smears evaluated using established vaginal cytology techniques by two individuals blinded to the animal treatment group. Estrous cyclicity was disrupted in nearly all HU and CPF mice, while those maintained in VIV had an average normal cycle length of 4.8+/- 0.5 days, with all stages in the cycle visibly observed. CPF and HU animals arrested in the diestrous phase, which precedes the pre-ovulatory estrogen surge. Additionally, infection-like symptoms characterized by vaginal discharge and swelling arose in several HU animals, which we suspect was due to an inability of these mice to properly groom themselves, and/or due to the change in the gravity vector relative to the vaginal opening, which prevented drainage of the lavage solution. Pair-feeding resulted in similar weight gains of HU and CPF (1.5% vs 3.0%, respectively). The current results indicate that pair-feeding controlled weight gain and that the HU cage alone influenced estrous cyclicity. Thus, longer acclimation needs to be tested to determine if and when normal estrous cycling resumes in non-loaded mice in HU cages prior to HU testing. Future studies might also examine whether modifications to the vaginal lavage procedure might prevent the onset of the infection-like symptoms, and allow estrous cyclicity to be measured in this model system. Research supported by NNX15AB48G to JST.

Hindlimb Unloading↗

NASA NTRS2017

Satellite Image Mapping of Tree Mortality in the Sierra Nevada Region of California from 2013 to 2016

Extreme drought from 2013 to 2015 has been linked to extensive tree dieback in the Sierra-Nevada region of California. Landsat satellite imagery was analysed for the region from Lake Tahoe to the southern Sequoia National Forest with the objective of understanding the patterns of tree mortality in the years of 2013 to 2015 and into the near-normal precipitation year of 2016. The main mapping results for Landsat moisture index differences from year-to-year showed that the highest coverage of tree dieback was located in the Sierra and Sequoia National Forests, at four to five times greater area each year than within any other National Park or National Forest unit. Since 2013, over 50% of the Sierra Nevada forest dieback area was detected in the mid elevation zone of 1000-2000 m. The total area of tree mortality in the lower elevation zone of 500-1000 m did not grow notably from 2015 to 2016. Within the largest California river drainages in the Sierra region, new tree mortality in 2015 was detected mainly below 1200 m elevation, whereas new tree mortality in 2016 was detected mainly at higher elevations, up to about 2200 m. In three out of the four years studied, results showed that about 60% of all new tree mortality areas were located on north-facing hill slopes.

Satellite↗

NASA NTRS2017

Estrous Cyclicity of Mice During Simulated Weightlessness

Hindlimb unloading (HU) is a rodent model system used to simulate weightlessness experienced in space. However, some effects of this approach on rodent physiology are under-studied, specifically the effects on ovarian estrogen production which drives the estrous cycle. To resolve this deficiency, we conducted a ground-based validation study using the HU model, while monitoring estrous cycles in 16-weeks-old female C57BL6 mice. Animals were exposed to HU for 12 days following a 3 day HU cage acclimation period, and estrous cycling was analyzed in HU animals (n22), normally loaded HU Cage Pair-Fed controls (CPF; n22), and Vivarium controls fed ad libitum (VIV; n10). Pair feeding was used to control for potential nutritional deficits on ovarian function. Vaginal cells were sampled daily in all mice via saline lavage. Cells were dried and stained with crystal violet, and the smears evaluated using established vaginal cytology techniques by two individuals blinded to the animal treatment group. Estrous cyclicity was disrupted in nearly all HU and CPF mice, while those maintained in VIV had an average normal cycle length of 4.8 0.5 days, with all stages in the cycle visibly observed. CPF and HU animals arrested in the diestrous phase, which precedes the pre-ovulatory estrogen surge. Additionally, infection-like symptoms characterized by vaginal discharge and swelling arose in several HU animals, which we suspect was due to an inability of these mice to properly groom themselves, andor due to the change in the gravity vector relative to the vaginal opening, which prevented drainage of the lavage solution. Pair-feeding resulted in similar weight gains of HU and CPF (1.5 vs 3.0, respectively). The current results indicate that pair-feeding controlled weight gain and that the HU cage alone influenced estrous cyclicity. Thus, longer acclimation needs to be tested to determine if and when normal estrous cycling resumes in non-loaded mice in HU cages prior to HU testing. Future studies might also examine whether modifications to the vaginal lavage procedure might prevent the onset of the infection-like symptoms, and allow estrous cyclicity to be measured in this model system.

fertilit↗

NASA NTRS2017

Adaptive Management Using Remote Sensing and Ecosystem Modeling in Response to Climate Variability and Invasive Aquatic Plants for the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Water Resource

The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California's water supply and supports important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in Northern to Southern California. Expansion of invasive aquatic plants in the Delta coupled with impacts of changing climate and long-term drought is detrimental to the San Francisco Bay/California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center and the USDA-ARS partnered with the State of California to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for invasive aquatic plant in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Specific mapping tools developed utilizing satellite and airborne platforms provide regular assessments of population dynamics on a landscape scale and support both strategic planning and operational decision making for resource managers. San Joaquin and Sacramento River watersheds water quality input to the Delta is modeled using the Soil-Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and a modified SWAT tool has been customized to account for unique landscape and management of agricultural water supply and drainage within the Delta. Environmental response models for growth of invasive aquatic weeds are being parameterized and coupled with spatial distribution/biomass density mapping and water quality to study ecosystem response to climate and aquatic plant management practices. On the water validation and operational utilization of these tools by management agencies and how they are improving decision making, management effectiveness and efficiency will be discussed. The project combines science, operations, and economics related to integrated management scenarios for aquatic weeds to help land and water resource managers make science-informed decisions regarding management and outcomes.

Adaptive↗

NASA NTRS2017

Automated Mapping of Flood Events in the Mississippi River Basin Utilizing NASA Earth Observations

The Mississippi River Basin is the fourth largest drainage basin in the world, and is susceptible to multi-level flood events caused by heavy precipitation, snow melt, and changes in water table levels. Conducting flood analysis during periods of disaster is a challenging endeavor for NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the U.S. Geological Survey's Hazards Data Distribution Systems (USGS HDDS) due to heavily-involved research and lack of manpower. During this project, an automated script was generated that performs high-level flood analysis to relieve the workload for end-users. The script incorporated Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) tiles and utilized computer-learning techniques to generate accurate water extent maps. The script referenced the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land-water mask to isolate areas of flood induced waters. These areas were overlaid onto the National Land Cover Database's (NLCD) land cover data, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's LandScan data, and Homeland Infrastructure Foundation-Level Data (HIFLD) to determine the classification of areas impacted and the population density affected by flooding. The automated algorithm was initially tested on the September 2016 flood event that occurred in Upper Mississippi River Basin, and was then further tested on multiple flood events within the Mississippi River Basin. This script allows end users to create their own flood probability and impact maps for disaster mitigation and recovery efforts.

Bartkovich, Mercedes↗

NASA NTRS2018

Melt Pond Conditions on Declining Arctic Sea Ice Over 1979-2016: Model Development, Validation, and Results

A melt pond (MP) distribution equation has been developed and incorporated into the Marginal Ice-Zone Modeling and Assimilation System to simulate Arctic MPs and sea ice over 1979-2016. The equation differs from previous MP models and yet benefits from previous studies for MP parameterizations as well as a range of observations for model calibration. Model results show higher magnitude of MP volume per unit ice area and area fraction in most of the Canada Basin and the East Siberian Sea and lower magnitude in the central Arctic. This is consistent with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer observations, evaluated with Measurements of Earth Data for Environmental Analysis (MEDEA) data, and closely related to top ice melt per unit ice area. The model simulates a decrease in the total Arctic sea ice volume and area, owing to a strong increase in bottom and lateral ice melt. The sea ice decline leads to a strong decrease in the total MP volume and area. However, the Arctic-averaged MP volume per unit ice area and area fraction show weak, statistically insignificant downward trends, which is linked to the fact that MP water drainage per unit ice area is increasing. It is also linked to the fact that MP volume and area decrease relatively faster than ice area. This suggests that overall the actual MP conditions on ice have changed little in the past decades as the ice cover is retreating in response to Arctic warming, thus consistent with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer observations that show no clear trend in MP area fraction over 2000-2011.

sea ice↗

NASA NTRS2018

Reworking and Diagenesis of Martian Soil: Pathway to Murray Formation Sediments?

In Gale crater, the Curiosity Mars rover has climbed over 300 meters of the Murray formation from the base of the Pahrump Hills to the crest of Vera Rubin Ridge. We discuss the possibility that fine-grained mudstone of the Murray formation is a diagenetic product of sediments with a chemical and mineralogical composition similar to present-day martian soil. Typical (low Ca-sulfate) Murray samples have Na2O, Al2O3, SiO2, SO3, TiO2 and FeOT concentrations within 10% (relative) of average martian soil. These oxides constitute ~85% of each sample. The Al/Si and Ti/Si ratios of Murray samples are comparable to average martian soil but distinct from other martian geologic units. Percentage difference in P2O5, Cl, K2O, Cr2O3, MnO, Ni, Zn, Br, and Ge between soil and Murray samples generally exceed 10%, but these elements and oxides amount to less than 4% of the samples. These constituents are highly variable in Murray mudstone and may reflect mobility in fluid interactions. Large discrepancies in MgO and CaO with ~50% lower concentrations in the Murray samples (~2% absolute differences) are indicative of open-system alteration if the Murray mudstone originated from soil-like material. Mineralogically, martian soil is dominated by plagioclase feldspar, pyroxenes, and olivine with minor hematite, magnetite, and Ca-sulfate. In comparison, Murray samples generally have less feldspar and pyroxene, little to no olivine, more iron oxides and Ca-sulfates, and Fe-containing phyllosilicates. If Murray mudstone originated from a Mars soil composition, aqueous alteration could have converted olivine and pyroxenes to iron oxides and phyllosilicates. Intermixed or zoned plagioclase feldspars could have lost a larger portion of calcic constituents, consistent with susceptibility to weathering, resulting in a change from ~An55 (soil) to ~An40 (Murray). This alteration could be consistent with the major element chemistry, including the small decrease in MgO and CaO. A subsequent influx of minor/trace elements and Ca-sulfate, e.g. from groundwater, would be required. In this diagenetic scenario, the bulk of the alteration would have been nearly isochemical, suggesting limited mineral segregation and aqueous alteration during transport from the drainage basin or a significant direct aeolian contribution to the Murray sediments.

Yen, Albert S.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Building Climate Resilience at NASA Ames

NASA Ames Research Center, located at the southern end of the San Francisco Bay (SFB) estuary has identified three primary vulnerabilities to changes in climate. The Ames Climate Adaptation Science Investigator (CASI) workgroup has studied each of these challenges to operations and the potential exposure of infrastructure and employees to an increased frequency of hazards. Sea level rise inundation scenarios for the SFB Area generally refer to projected scenarios in mean sea level rather than changes in extreme tides that could occur during future storm conditions. In the Summer of 2014, high resolution 3-D mapping of the low lying portion of Ames was performed. Those data are integrated with improved sea level inundation scenarios to identify the buildings, basements and drainage systems potentially affected. We will also identify the impacts of sea level and storm surge effects on transportation to and from the Center. This information will help Center Management develop future Master Plans. Climate change will also lead to changes in temperature, storm frequency and intensity. These changes have potential impacts on localized floods and ecosystems, as well as on electricity and water availability. Over the coming decades, these changes are going to be imposed on top of ongoing land use and land cover changes, especially those deriving from continued urbanization and increase in impervious surface areas. These coupled changes have the potential to create a series of cascading impacts on ecosystems, including changes in primary productivity and disturbance of hydrological properties and increased flood risk.The majority of the electricity used at Ames is supplied by hydroelectric dams, which will be influenced by reductions in precipitation or changes in the timing or phase of precipitation which reduces snow pack. Coupled with increased demand for summertime air conditioning and other cooling needs, NASA Ames is at risk for electricity shortfalls. To assess the anticipated energy usage as climate changes, the Ames CASI team is collecting historical energy usage data from Ames facilities, historical weather data, and projected future weather parameters from the CASI Climate subgroup. This data will be incorporated into the RETScreen model to predict how energy usage at Ames will change over the coming century.

climate↗

NASA NTRS2018

Modeling the Distribution and Type of High-Latitude Natural Wetlands for Methane Studies

High latitude (>50N) natural wetlands emit a substantial amount of methane to the atmosphere, and are located in a region of amplified warming. Northern hemisphere high latitudes are characterized by cold climates, extensive permafrost, poor drainage, short growing seasons, and slow decay rates. Under these conditions, organic carbon accumulates in the soil, sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere. Methanogens produce methane from this carbon reservoir, converting stored carbon into a powerful greenhouse gas. Methane emission from wetland ecosystems depends on vegetation type, climate characteristics (e.g, precipitation amount and seasonality, temperature, snow cover, etc.), and geophysical variables (e.g., permafrost, soil type, and landscape slope). To understand how wetland methane dynamics in this critical region will respond to climate change, we have to first understand how wetlands themselves will change and therefore, what the primary controllers of wetland distribution and type are. Understanding these relationships permits data-anchored, physically-based modeling of wetland distribution and type in other climate scenarios, such as paleoclimates or future climates, a necessary first step toward modeling wetland methane emissions in these scenarios. We investigate techniques and datasets for predicting the distribution and type of high latitude (>50N) natural wetlands from a suite of geophysical and climate predictors. Hierarchical clustering is used to derive an empirical methane-centric wetland model. The model is applied in a multistep process first to predict the distribution of wetlands from relevant geophysical parameters, and then, given the predicted wetland distribution, to classify the wetlands into methane-relevant types using an expanded suite of climate and biogeophysical variables. As the optimum set of predictor variables is not known a priori, the model is applied iteratively, and each simulation is evaluated with respect to observed high-latitude wetlands.

Romanski, Joy↗

NASA NTRS2014

Mars: The First Billion Years - Warm and Wet vs Cold and Icy?

Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. Liquid water is not stable on its surface. There are no lakes, seas, or oceans, and rain falls nowhere at no time during the year. Yet early in its history during the Noachian epoch, there is geological and mineralogical evidence that liquid water did indeed flow on its surface creating drainage systems, lakes, and possibly, seas and oceans. The implication is that early Mars had a different climate than it does today, one that was based on a thicker atmosphere with a more powerful greenhouse effect that was capable of producing an active hydrological cycle with rainfall, runoff, and evaporation. Since Mariner 9 began accumulating such evidence, researchers have been trying to understand what kind of a climate system could have created greenhouse conditions favorable for liquid water. Unfortunately, the problem is not yet solved.

Cold Early Mars↗