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At least 919 records · Page 51
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and environmental data on the astronaut population may create opportunities for advanced analytics and human-environment modeling that goes beyond that achieved in isolated experimental designs; and (7) Translation of relevant research to operations is a complex, transdisciplinary enterprise in which the approach must apply across the physical, biological, behavioral, and social sciences. The approach to synthesizing evidence must address both source and fidelity of data, and reflect the most general attributes of quality of evidence in science and engineering: reliability and validity. The authors are developing a two-factor approach which includes the various kinds of evidence required to understand risks and for the integrated interpretation of all evidence that is essential to develop standards and countermeasures. A unified framework for aggregating and assessing different kinds of evidence provides a consistent, traceable, evidence-based decision-making process to translate research to operations in an environment where engineers, scientists, physicians, and managers all engage in analyzing the trade space of vehicle design, standards, requirements and solutions for spaceflight.

Steinberg, S. L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Igiugig Site Visit Report

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) team conducted a site visit during January 23-25, 2019 with the Igiugig Village Council (IVC) and other stakeholders to assist the community of Igiugig in refining their long-term energy strategy. The agenda included a tour of the village, data collection, presentations, long-term visioning exercises, identification of energy scenarios, and a school presentation. Participants in the site visit activities spanned a range of local, regional, government, and industry participation. There were 24 attendees at the all-day community workshop on Thursday, January 24th, with participants from the IVC, NREL, Bristol Bay Native Association (BBNA), Bristol Bay Native Corporation (BBNC), Lake and Peninsula Borough, Alaska Energy Authority, Intergrid, ORPC, Deer Stone Consulting, the Southwest Alaska Municipal Conference, and University of Alaska Fairbanks - Alaska Center for Energy and Power. Igiugig is a well-organized rural Alaskan community, with a leadership team that appears to have broad community support. The use of consensus-based decision making is one tangible example of how the leadership team actively invokes and promotes community-focused thinking. The NREL team observed anecdotal evidence of how this approach seems to be strengthening the community: active participation in the visioning exercise, a student hosted fund-raiser dinner at the school, a clean and organized landfill, and well-maintained roads and buildings. Igiugig has wind, solar, and river hydrokinetic resources readily available within the community. Wind has shown to be a promising resource in the region, and has been integrated into microgrids around the state, but the community has had mixed success with wind technologies: some devices failed quickly and others continue to operate. The economics of solar energy are improving in Alaska, and economical solar projects are being installed around the state. Considering that economic activity in Igiugig peaks during the summer sport fishing season, solar could prove to be a valuable supplement to the electrical system. Igiugig has been a test site for two different river hydrokinetic devices, and they have began a third project to operate ORPC's RivGen device, which is delivering valuable device performance data, operations and maintenance experience, and design refinement information. Already, this device has made over 7-million revolutions, and delivered over 8 MWh of power to the community. Igiugig's river resource is fairly unique because it is available year-round and has the potential to provide reliable base-load power for months at a time. A preliminary investigation of this diverse resource mix suggests that Igiugig could achieve very high levels (70% or more) of annual renewable generation contributions. A critical step in pursuing this path is identifying the mix of energy assets (generation and storage) that best meets the community's budget, needs, and goals. The assets that a community installs early in their grid-modernization initiative can constrain the options that are economical at later stages, which may lead to sub-optimal solutions. This is where technical and economic analysis of potential scenarios (i.e., distinct mixes of energy assets) can be useful in identifying the most promising pathways so that a community can make informed and strategic decisions about the assets they install. These analyses are most accurate and informative when they are based on actual technology performance and cost data. As the RivGen project continues to operate and generate this data, we will be better prepared to evaluate the technology's long-term viability and to identify research areas that would improve it. Igiugig's energy projects are at the cutting edge of two intersecting technology areas: 1) deploying an operational river hydrokinetic turbine, and 2) integrating renewable energy sources to achieve very high percent renewables. If these projects are successful, the lessons learned and technologies developed could be valuable for other microgrids around the world. Igiugig's unique resource mix make it an ideal location for this work, and the community's organizational strength make it an ideal partner in this ground-breaking work. Ongoing support for technical assistance to manage and address technical challenges along the way will maximize the probability of project success.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A systematic multicriteria-based approach to support product portfolio selection in microalgae biorefineries

Here this work proposes and applies a sequential approach of objective methods to aid the decision-making process for the deployment of microalgae biorefineries. The strategy combines Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and weight assignment methods to simultaneously consider technical, economic, and environmental criteria to (1) outrank the best bioproduct options from different biomass fractions present in microalgae biomass at different ratios (namely carbohydrates, lipids, and protein) and (2) define the most suitable biorefining pathways associated with specific pairings of microalgae strains and cultivation conditions. The first part of the assessment identified succinic acid, acrylic acid, and citric acid as the top-ranked bioproducts from carbohydrates, polyurethane from lipids, and thermoplastic extrusion co-feed from protein. The second step of the analysis determined that, when production of a hydrocarbon fuel is desired, the compositional profile of a strain is paramount in defining the biorefining setup that should be pursued. In summary, microalgae lipids should be sent to the production of hydrocarbon fuels if the ratio between neutral lipids and fermentable carbohydrates is higher than roughly 1, with carbohydrates and protein being converted to the higher-value products noted above. Finally, this result was corroborated through process simulations, which indicated superior economic and environmental metrics when strains are paired with suitable conversion pathways identified through MCDA based on their compositional profiles. The outcomes of this work provide clear, objective, guidelines for establishing the best biorefining approach for a large suite of biochemical compositions as a screening method prior to employing detailed process simulations alongside rigorous techno-economic and life-cycle assessments.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Linear model decision trees as surrogates in optimization of engineering applications

Machine learning models are promising as surrogates in optimization when replacing difficult to solve equations or black-box type models. This work demonstrates the viability of linear model decision trees as piecewise-linear surrogates in decision-making problems. Linear model decision trees can be represented exactly in mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) and mixed-integer quadratic constrained programming (MIQCP) formulations. Furthermore, they can represent discontinuous functions, bringing advantages over neural networks in some cases. We present several formulations using transformations from Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) formulations and modifications of MILP formulations for gradient boosted decision trees (GBDT). We then compare the computational performance of these different MILP and MIQCP representations in an optimization problem and illustrate their use on engineering applications. Importantly, we observe faster solution times for optimization problems with linear model decision tree surrogates when compared with GBDT surrogates using the Optimization and Machine Learning Toolkit (OMLT).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

The impact of market design and clean energy incentives on strategic generation investments and resource adequacy in low-carbon electricity markets

Well-designed electricity markets play a crucial role in maintaining reliable electric power systems, which are critical in modern society. Here, this study examines the impact of different electricity market designs and clean energy incentive schemes on supporting renewable energy integration and achieving clean energy goals. To this end, we utilize a game-theoretical generation expansion planning model where generation companies make investment and retirement decisions to maximize their expected profit. The model is structured as an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC) and solved using a diagonalization approach combined with progressive hedging. We analyze three types of electricity market designs: an energy-only market, a capacity market, and a clean energy market, and consider a wide range of market parameters resulting in 14 total scenarios. Wind and solar capacity comprise the majority of new investments in all considered scenarios, but the resultant system planning reserve margin (PRM) can differ significantly depending on market parameters. We also find that profit-driven investments lead to lower PRMs than a traditional system cost minimization approach. These individual scenario results further demonstrate how different market designs and clean energy incentive schemes may influence investor decision-making and impact resource adequacy throughout the clean energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A General Framework for Human-in-the-Loop Cognitive Digital Twins

Modelling and analysis of systems that are equipped with sensors and connected to the Internet are becoming more automated and less human-dependent. However, bringing expert knowledge into the loop along with data obtained from Internet of Thing (IoT) devices minimizes the risk of making poor and unexplainable decisions and helps to assess the impact of different strategies before applying them in reality. While Digital Twins are more of a data-driven simulation of the physical system, Cognitive Digital Twins bring the human dimension into the modelling and simulation. In this paper, we aim to emphasize the crucial role of explainability and the underlying rationale behind automated or interactive decision-making processes. Furthermore, we propose an initial framework that delineates the specific points within the feedback loop of a cognitive digital twin where human involvement can be incorporated.

Niloofar, Parisa↗
DOE OSTI2025

Autonomous Flow Electrochemistry for Accelerated Catalyst Discovery

Our objective is to develop an Autonomous Chemical Experimentation (ACE) platform that accelerates discovery of new catalytic transformations and other energy-relevant chemical reactions and processes. We intentionally designed ACE to be highly modular, both with respect to its rapid deployment to different chemistries and experimental workflows as well as incorporation of a wide range of different AI algorithms. In addition to the development of the core software architecture, initial efforts were made to incorporate Large Language Models to provide human-interpretable reasoning of the optimizer’s actions, and to develop a user-friendly graphical interface for experimental researchers. ACE was demonstrated using a flow electrocatalysis platform containing an inline FTIR spectrometer for real-time analysis and quantification of the reaction outcome. Human-in-the-loop experiments were performed in which a human researcher conducted an experiment using electrode potentials suggested by ACE, then fed the spectral data back to ACE for decision making. After confirming the successful function of the optimizer, efforts were next directed to automation of the hardware and performed full autonomy tests using three reactions: catalytic oxidation of formate, catalytic oxidation of cyclohexanol, and oxidation of hydroquinone. These studies confirm that ACE can close the loop between reaction execution, analysis, and optimization. They also reveal that more improved product detection methods will be essential for ACE to make well-informed decisions for reactions with low conversions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1972

Organizing, staffing and initiating the program.

This paper describes and discusses those test laboratory management considerations prerequisite to test conduct and test reporting. These considerations are identified as (1) organizational requirements; they have to be determined, not only to implement a successful test program, but to match the communications needs of the other elements of the parent organization: (2) the role of supervision; decision making processes, types of decisions, and charters and role statements are presented: (3) planning; involves establishing objectives, definitions, procedures and the review and appraisal process: (4) delegation; some things cannot be delegated, others have to be.

Van Biene, F. K.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A hierarchical-multiobjective framework for risk management

A broad hierarchical-multiobjective framework is established and utilized to methodologically address the management of risk. United into the framework are the hierarchical character of decision-making, the multiple decision-makers at separate levels within the hierarchy, the multiobjective character of large-scale systems, the quantitative/empirical aspects, and the qualitative/normative/judgmental aspects. The methodological components essentially consist of hierarchical-multiobjective coordination, risk of extreme events, and impact analysis. Examples of applications of the framework are presented. It is concluded that complex and interrelated forces require an analysis of trade-offs between engineering analysis and societal preferences, as in the hierarchical-multiobjective framework, to successfully address inherent risk.

Haimes, Yacov Y.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Decision Facilitator for Launch Operations using Intelligent Agents

Launch operations require millions of micro-decisions which contribute to the macro decision of 'Go/No-Go' for a launch. Knowledge workers"(such as managers and technical professionals) need information in a timely precise manner as it can greatly affect mission success. The intelligent agent (web search agent) uses the words of a hypertext markup language document which is connected through the internet. The intelligent agent's actions are to determine if its goal of seeking a website containing a specified target (e.g., keyword or phrase), has been met. There are few parameters that should be defined for the keyword search like "Go" and "No-Go". Instead of visiting launch and range decision making servers individually, the decision facilitator constantly connects to all servers, accumulating decisions so the final decision can be decided in a timely manner. The facilitator agent uses the singleton design pattern, which ensures that only a single instance of the facilitator agent exists at one time. Negotiations could proceed between many agents resulting in a final decision. This paper describes details of intelligent agents and their interaction to derive an unified decision support system.

Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar↗
NASA NTRS2009

Observations of Crew Dynamics During Mars Analog Simulations

Crewmembers on Mars missions will face new and unique challenges compared to those in close communications proximity to Mission Control centers. Crews on Mars will likely become more autonomous and responsible for their day-to-day planning. These explorers will need to make frequent real time decisions without the assistance of large ground support teams. Ground-centric control will no longer be an option due to the communications delays. As a result of the new decision making model, crew dynamics and leadership styles of future astronauts may become significantly different from the demands of today. As a volunteer for the Mars Society on two Mars analog missions, this presenter will discuss observations made during isolated, surface exploration simulations. The need for careful crew selections, not just based on individual skill sets, but on overall team interactions becomes apparent very quickly when the crew is planning their own days and deciding their own priorities. Even more important is the selection of a Mission Commander who can lead a team of highly skilled individuals with strong and varied opinions in a way that promotes crew consensus, maintains fairness, and prevents unnecessary crew fatigue.

Cusack, Stacy L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Overview of the Smart Network Element Architecture and Recent Innovations

In industrial environments, system operators rely on the availability and accuracy of sensors to monitor processes and detect failures of components and/or processes. The sensors must be networked in such a way that their data is reported to a central human interface, where operators are tasked with making real-time decisions based on the state of the sensors and the components that are being monitored. Incorporating health management functions at this central location aids the operator by automating the decision-making process to suggest, and sometimes perform, the action required by current operating conditions. Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) aims to incorporate data from many sources, including real-time and historical data and user input, and extract information and knowledge from that data to diagnose failures and predict future failures of the system. By distributing health management processing to lower levels of the architecture, there is less bandwidth required for ISHM, enhanced data fusion, make systems and processes more robust, and improved resolution for the detection and isolation of failures in a system, subsystem, component, or process. The Smart Network Element (SNE) has been developed at NASA Kennedy Space Center to perform intelligent functions at sensors and actuators' level in support of ISHM.

Perotti, Jose M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Ground Operations Autonomous Control and Integrated Health Management

An intelligent autonomous control capability has been developed and is currently being validated in ground cryogenic fluid management operations. The capability embodies a physical architecture consistent with typical launch infrastructure and control systems, augmented by a higher level autonomous control (AC) system enabled to make knowledge-based decisions. The AC system is supported by an integrated system health management (ISHM) capability that detects anomalies, diagnoses causes, determines effects, and could predict future anomalies. AC is implemented using the concept of programmed sequences that could be considered to be building blocks of more generic mission plans. A sequence is a series of steps, and each executes actions once conditions for the step are met (e.g. desired temperatures or fluid state are achieved). For autonomous capability, conditions must consider also health management outcomes, as they will determine whether or not an action is executed, or how an action may be executed, or if an alternative action is executed instead. Aside from health, higher level objectives can also drive how a mission is carried out. The capability was developed using the G2 software environment (www.gensym.com) augmented by a NASA Toolkit that significantly shortens time to deployment. G2 is a commercial product to develop intelligent applications. It is fully object oriented. The core of the capability is a Domain Model of the system where all elements of the system are represented as objects (sensors, instruments, components, pipes, etc.). Reasoning and decision making can be done with all elements in the domain model. The toolkit also enables implementation of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), which are represented as root cause trees. FMEA's are programmed graphically, they are reusable, as they address generic FMEA referring to classes of subsystems or objects and their functional relationships. User interfaces for integrated awareness by operators have been created.

Figueroa, Fernando↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Climate is A-Changin': Teaching Civic Competence for a Sustainable Climate

A central aim of social studies curriculum is to prepare young people for making "informed and reasoned decisions for the public good" concerning consequential problems like global climate change. By developing students' "vision of a good society" and exploring what actions and policies move our society in this direction, social studies teachers have an important role in preparing students for a world undergoing enormous environmental change. This article discusses elementary curriculum connections between building students' knowledge and understanding about "their community, nation and world" and global climate change. It also suggests ideas for building civic competency and climate literacy while creating opportunities for students to practice high-value skills like "data collection and analysis, collaboration, decision-making and problem-solving."

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2021

SMART-COM – Scalable Multi-Agent Adaptive Resolution Tools for Collaborative Outage Management

The purpose of this grant was to conduct scientific research and prototype applications to support NPP outage staff in their adaptive decision-making in efficient scheduling and resource allocation while preventing violation of safety technical specifications. The project contributed to scientific knowledge and engineering methods in (1) user interface design, (2) scheduling optimization and risk estimation, and (2) natural language processing that would benefit the nuclear power plants in minimizing schedule overruns and even unexpected shutdowns. The research team conducted site visits at a test reactor facility and an operating nuclear power plant to gather necessary information and inputs for research and development of a software application to support NPP staff in executing their outages. The final software application consisted of three modules. First, the natural language processing module supports interactive processing of technical documentation to build a database for outage staff to query non-permissible actions on system components. This module can alleviate outage staff from reviewing extensive documentation and minimize violation of technical specifications, especially in time-sensitive situations. Second, the schedule optimization module schedules outage activities and compute risk indices that outperform existing software and current practice. This module can reduce completion time of an outage that typically have too many activities for human to optimize based on current practice that does not apply the latest operations research. Finally, the visualization module presents progress and risk information of the overall outage and individual activities, as well as enabling access to the natural language processing and schedule optimization modules. This module can provide outage staff with situation awareness that are necessary to make risk-informed decisions in response to unexpected events during the execution of an outage.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis as a Key Guiding Tool for Waste Carbon Utilization

Over a billion metric tons of waste and biomass are projected to be available in a future mature market in the United States. These resources represent an opportunity to decouple chemical and polymer production from conventional fossil fuel feedstocks, but such a broad solution space can also make for challenging decision-making. This talk will provide researchers with an introduction to key analysis techniques such as techno-economic analysis, life cycle assessment, and material flow analysis: how they are conducted and how they can be used to benchmark the costs, environmental impacts, and circularity of new innovations as well as to identify opportunities for prioritization and optimization. Using a series of examples related to plastic recycling and chemical manufacturing, we will explore how analysis can guide where and how to leverage waste carbon in supply chains towards a future circular economy.

chemical↗
NASA NTRS1996

The New Millennium Program: Technology for the 21(sup st) Century

NASA's New Millennium Program (NMP) is a space flight technology demonstration program that will validate the technologies needed to carry out the science missions that NASA envisions for the 21(sup st)century. The NMP is employing an innovative decision making process to select the specific technologies that will be flight validated.

Space flight technology decision-making process NM↗