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907 records · Page 51

MACCS Theory Manual

This report describes the models of the MACCS computer code as presented in MACCS Version 3.10.0. The purpose of MACCS is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. From a given release of radioactive material into the atmosphere, MACCS estimates the extent and magnitude of radiological contamination, offsite doses, protective actions, socioeconomic impacts and costs, and health effects. Since the weather at the time of an accident is not predictable, MACCS supports various sampling options to run a representative set of simulations to evaluate weather variability. MACCS simulates atmospheric transport with a straight-line Gaussian plume segment model. From the estimated air and ground concentrations, MACCS models dose projections through several dose exposure pathways. These exposures can be offset by protective actions during the emergency response and long-term recovery of the accident. MACCS users directly specify the evacuation and sheltering area, while other protective actions (e.g., relocation, farmland restrictions, decontamination) are based on user-specified dose or concentration limits. While protective actions help reduce dose accumulation, they also cause social and economic impacts. MACCS models the extent of displaced individuals and land contamination, and the cost of offsite property damage, economic disruptions, and various accident expenditures caused by protective actions. Finally, from the dose accumulation, MACCS estimates early and stochastic health effects according to dose-response models. The purpose of consequence analyses is to be able to understand and estimate the impact of nuclear accidents. Consequence analysis is an essential tool to inform determinations of adequate protection of the public, to understand nuclear power hazards, to measure the value of regulations, and to help us appreciate the importance of nuclear safety. As such, MACCS has a variety of regulatory uses including environmental analyses (10 CFR 51.53, 52.47), regulatory cost-benefit analyses, backfit analyses (10 CFR 50.109), consequence analysis studies such as SOARCA (NUREG-1935), Level 3 PRA studies, and risk-informing of emergency planning (10 CFR 50 App. E and 50.47). This report updates the previous MACCS theory manual (NUREG/CR-4691 Vol. 2; Chanin, Sprung, Ritchie, & Jow, 1990) and accompanies the MACCS User's Guide (SAND-2021-1588) that describes the use and input requirements of the graphical user interface of MACCS known as WinMACCS. The MACCS User's Guide is also a reference guide that describes data input file formats, describes various software components in the MACCS code suite, and provides a set of example tutorials for running WinMACCS. Also, soon to be published is a MACCS input parameter guidance report (NUREG/CR-7270) that provides technical bases for commonly used MACCS input values. This page left blank

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Simplex‐based model for nanoparticle grain identification in four‐dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy data

Grain identification in polycrystalline nanoparticles, for example, determining which crystal phases are present at each spatial location, is fundamental to materials characterisation. This is particularly challenging when grains overlap extensively, as commonly occurs in four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy (4D-STEM) datasets. We propose a simplex-based model (SBM) in which each simplex vertex represents the diffraction pattern (DP) of a pure grain, and the simplex edges and interior represent overlapping grains. Our SBM grain identification algorithm operates on the Bragg disk (BD) data matrix distilled from the 4D-STEM data to identify the grain membership at each scan position, together with a BD feature matrix whose columns represent the DPs for each constituent grain, which is important for identifying the crystal structure of each grain. We solve the model using a two-stage algorithm. In Stage 1, we adapt a linear mixing algorithm to estimate an initial BD feature matrix whose columns represent DPs of potentially overlapping grains. Our Stage 2 algorithm incorporates sparsity considerations to transform the initial BD feature matrix so that its columns represent DPs of pure grains. Using simulated datasets with various grain configurations, we demonstrate that SBM recovers both the BD feature matrix and membership maps more accurately than existing methods, even when a grain lacks any pure region and completely overlaps with other grains.

4D-STEM segmentation↗

Land Resources for Wind Energy Development Requires Regionalized Characterizations

Estimates of the land area occupied by wind energy differ by orders of magnitude due to data scarcity and inconsistent methodology. Here, we developed a method that combines machine learning-based imagery analysis and geographic information systems and examined the land area of 318 wind farms (15,871 turbines) in the U.S. portion of the Western Interconnection. We found that prior land use and human modification in the project area are critical for land-use efficiency and land transformation of wind projects. Projects developed in areas with little human modification have a land-use efficiency of 63.8 ± 8.9 W/m 2 (mean ±95% confidence interval) and a land transformation of 0.24 ± 0.07 m 2 /MWh, while values for projects in areas with high human modification are 447 ± 49.4 W/m 2 and 0.05 ± 0.01 m 2 /MWh, respectively. We show that land resources for wind can be quantified consistently with our replicable method, a method that obviates >99% of the workload using machine learning. To quantify the peripheral impact of a turbine, buffered geometry can be used as a proxy for measuring land resources and metrics when a large enough impact radius is assumed (e.g., >4 times the rotor diameter). Our analysis provides a necessary first step toward regionalized impact assessment and improved comparisons of energy alternatives.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Revealing the evolution of order in materials microstructures using multi-modal computer vision

The development of high-performance materials for microelectronics, energy storage, and extreme environments depends on our ability to describe and direct property-defining microstructural order. Our present understanding is typically derived from laborious manual analysis of imaging and spectroscopy data, which is difficult to scale, challenging to reproduce, and lacks the ability to reveal latent associations needed for mechanistic models. Here, we demonstrate a multi-modal machine learning (ML) approach to describe order from electron microscopy analysis of the complex oxide La 1−x Sr x FeO 3 . We construct a hybrid pipeline based on fully and semi-supervised classification, allowing us to evaluate both the characteristics of each data modality and the value each modality adds to the ensemble. We observe distinct differences in the performance of uni- and multi-modal models, from which we draw general lessons in describing crystal order using computer vision.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Monitoring leaf phenology in moist tropical forests by applying a superpixel-based deep learning method to time-series images of tree canopies

Tropical leaf phenology-particularly its variability at the tree-crown scale-dominates the seasonality of carbon and water fluxes. However, given enormous species diversity, accurate means of monitoring leaf phenology in tropical forests is still lacking. Time series of the Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) metric derived from tower-based red-green-blue (RGB) phenocams have been widely used to monitor leaf phenology in temperate forests, but its application in the tropics remains problematic. To improve monitoring of tropical phenology, we explored the use of a deep learning model (i.e. superpixel-based Residual Networks 50, SP-ResNet50) to automatically differentiate leaves from non-leaves in phenocam images and to derive leaf fraction at the tree-crown scale. To evaluate our model, we used a year of data from six phenocams in two contrasting forests in Panama. Here, we first built a comprehensive library of leaf and non-leaf pixels across various acquisition times, exposure conditions and specific phenocams. We then divided this library into training and testing components. We evaluated the model at three levels: 1) superpixel level with a testing set, 2) crown level by comparing the model-derived leaf fractions with those derived using image-specific supervised classification, and 3) temporally using all daily images to assess the diurnal stability of the model-derived leaf fraction. Finally, we compared the model-derived leaf fraction phenology with leaf phenology derived from GCC. Our results show that: 1) the SP-ResNet50 model accurately differentiates leaves from non-leaves (overall accuracy of 93%) and is robust across all three levels of evaluations; 2) the model accurately quantifies leaf fraction phenology across tree-crowns and forest ecosystems; and 3) the combined use of leaf fraction and GCC helps infer the timing of leaf emergence, maturation and senescence, critical information for modeling photosynthetic seasonality of tropical forests. Collectively, this study offers an improved means for automated tropical phenology monitoring using phenocams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE Deep Energy Retrofit Cost Survey

A survey was conducted by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory on deep energy retrofit (DER) market drivers, opportunities, and challenges. The survey was part a research study sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy to gather information on the costs of DER from home performance contractors and stakeholders. Cost data was gathered from DER projects that use a comprehensive, whole-home approach to drastically reduce energy use and improve performance. DER projects often aim at reducing energy use by 50% or more. In addition, these projects can improve home comfort and potentially benefiting occupant health. Yet, market adoption of DER has been limited. Major limiting factors include complex projects, high costs, perceived risks, extensive disruption, and unfamiliar work scopes to some contractors. In order to better understand what motivates and deters DER projects in today’s market, a survey was conducted to gather this information, and to learn about promising approaches and technologies from the industry perspective. Past surveys on homeowners and home energy performance professionals have studied the motivations and barriers of energy efficiency retrofits. Two surveys of home energy performance professionals were conducted in recent years. The Resources for the Future (RFF) Home Energy Audit and Retrofit Survey was conducted in 2011 by recruiting energy auditors and retrofit installers through members of Efficiency First and Building Performance Institute (BPI) accredited contractors. The survey asked about the business and services that respondents provide, how often homeowners follow their recommendations to retrofit their homes, and the respondents’ opinion on barriers faced by the industry. The survey found that not enough homeowners know about energy audits, but more importantly, it is the high cost of retrofits compared to low energy prices that is responsible for few energy audits and retrofits being completed. The RESNET Deep Retrofit Industry Stakeholder Survey was conducted shortly after launching of the EnergySmart Home Performance Team program. The EnergySmart Team program involves a formal agreement among allied contractors who are engaged in high performance retrofits. Using this allied team approach, teams can pool their expertise and provide each other with customer referrals. The survey asked EnergySmart Team members and outside stakeholders on questions about market and technical barriers in performing home energy retrofits. Survey respondents identified lack of consumer awareness and lack of affordable financing for consumers as the leading market barriers to home energy retrofits. In their written comments, many survey respondents also echoed that the high costs of retrofit compared to low energy prices is a market barrier. Respondents found “certain housing characteristics that prevent effective retrofit” and “energy analysis software inaccuracy or limitations” are the two leading technical barriers. Their choices for technical barriers were reflective of the energy rater/auditor role played by the majority (78%) of the survey respondents. In comparison to past surveys, this work aimed to gather inputs from a broader segment of the home performance industry to identify the opportunities and barriers faced by DERs from all perspectives. The survey asks for project costs to help breakdown the high costs of DERs. This survey is also motivated by a need to better understand the role of DERs in reducing energy use by the residential sectors and meeting climate goals. The survey is designed towards obtaining more substantive inputs from survey respondents by encouraging written comments, rather than setting the goal to reach a large number of respondents. We took this approach because DER is currently still a niche market, so it is more valuable to gather in-depth inputs from individuals who are performing this work rather than getting to the masses.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Ionization-based search for magnetic monopoles using the NOvA Far Detector

We report a search for highly ionizing magnetic monopoles in the cosmic-ray flux using a 2713-day dataset collected during 2015–2025 with the NOvA Far Detector, a 14-kt segmented detector located on Earth’s surface in Minnesota, United States. The search is sensitive to monopoles across a wide range of speeds, 7 × 10 −4 < 𝛽 < 0.995, and is sensitive to masses as low as 2 × 10 5 GeV for the fastest monopoles. No signal was observed. With the detector’s large surface area and minimal overburden, we achieve the strongest flux limits reported to date in several regions of speed and mass. For heavy monopoles with masses above 10 13 GeV that are able to reach the detector from above or—crossing Earth—from below, we find a flux limit 𝜙 90% < 2 × 10 −16 cm −2 s −1 sr −1 (90% confidence level) for monopoles with 0.005 < 𝛽 < 0.8. Across the same range of speeds, we report a limit 𝜙 90% < 8 × 10 −16 cm −2 s −1 sr −1 for light monopoles with masses above 10 8 GeV that can reach the detector from above.

magnetic monopoles↗