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DOE OSTI2026

Smart Charging of Fleet and Personal Electric Vehicles through Joint Vehicle-to-Grid Optimization

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption accelerates, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) strategies offer advantages over unmanaged charging (V0G) by enhancing grid stability, reducing fleet operation costs, and supporting integration of variable generation resources. This research develops a day-ahead optimization framework linked with agent-based simulations to evaluate coordinated V2G participation by fleet and personal EVs under 5 energy-pricing settings in Austin, Texas. Three scenarios (V0G, fleet-only V2G, and joint-V2G) are examined, considering real-time price and grid profiles, health-damage costs, and operational constraints for both fleet and personal EVs. Results show how V2G scenarios shift fleet EV charging to mid-day while enabling strategic battery-discharge during evening peaks, mitigating grid stress and lowering EV energy costs. V2G delivers close to 80% energy-cost savings for a 2000-EV fleet in Austin on grid-stressed days, with 55% lower charging pollutant outputs. Joint-V2G amplifies system-level benefits by complementing fleet discharge, but smart-charging equipment costs can offset those benefits.

Electric vehicle↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimization of key energy and performance metrics for drug product manufacturing

During the development of pharmaceutical manufacturing processes, detailed systems-based analysis and optimization are required to control and regulate critical quality attributes within specific ranges, to maintain product performance. As discussions on carbon footprint, sustainability, and energy efficiency are gaining prominence, the development and utilization of these concepts in pharmaceutical manufacturing are seldom reported, which limits the potential of pharmaceutical industry in maximizing key energy and performance metrics. Based on an integrated modeling and techno-economic analysis framework previously developed by the authors, this study presents the development of a combined sensitivity analysis and optimization approach to minimize energy consumption while maintaining product quality and meeting operational constraints in a pharmaceutical process. The optimal input process conditions identified were validated against experiments and good agreement resulted between simulated and experimental data. Here, the results also allowed for a comparison of the capital and operational costs for batch and continuous manufacturing schemes under nominal and optimized conditions. Using the nominal batch operations as a basis, the optimized batch operation results in a 71.7% reduction of energy consumption, whereas the optimized continuous case results in an energy saving of 83.3%.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Calibrating the Classical Hardness of the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm

The trading of fidelity for scale enables approximate classical simulators such as matrix product states (MPSs) to run quantum circuits beyond exact methods. A control parameter, the so-called bond dimension $\mathcal{χ}$ for MPSs, governs the allocated computational resources and the output fidelity. Here, we characterize the fidelity for the quantum approximate optimization algorithm by the expectation value of the cost function that it seeks to minimize and find that it follows a scaling law $\mathscr{F}$(ln $\mathcal{χ}$/N), where N is the number of qubits. With ln $\mathcal{χ}$ amounting to the entanglement that a MPS can encode, we show that the relevant variable for investigating the fidelity is the entanglement per qubit. Importantly, our results calibrate the classical computational power required to achieve the desired fidelity and benchmark the performance of quantum hardware in a realistic setup. For instance, we quantify the hardness of performing better classically than a noisy superconducting quantum processor by readily matching its output to the scaling function. Moreover, we relate the global fidelity to that of individual operations and establish its relationship with $\mathcal{χ}$ and N. We sharpen the requirements for noisy quantum computers to outperform classical techniques at running a quantum optimization algorithm in speed, size, and fidelity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

ChatHPC: Building the Foundations for a Productive and Trustworthy AI-Assisted HPC Ecosystem

ChatHPC democratizes large language models for the high-performance computing (HPC) community by providing the infrastructure, ecosystem, and knowledge needed to apply modern generative AI technologies to rapidly create specific capabilities for critical HPC components while using relatively modest computational resources. Our divide-and-conquer approach focuses on creating a collection of reliable, highly specialized, and optimized AI assistants for HPC based on the cost-effective and fast Code Llama fine-tuning processes and expert supervision. We target major components of the HPC software stack, including programming models, runtimes, I/O, tooling, and math libraries. Thanks to AI, ChatHPC provides a more productive HPC ecosystem by boosting important tasks related to portability, parallelization, optimization, scalability, and instrumentation, among others. With relatively small datasets (on the order of KB), the AI assistants, which are created in a few minutes by using one node with two NVIDIA H100 GPUs and the ChatHPC library, can create new capabilities with Meta’s 7-billion parameter Code Llama base model to produce high-quality software with a level of trustworthiness of up to 90% higher than the 1.8-trillion parameter OpenAI ChatGPT-4o model for critical programming tasks in the HPC software stack.

Young, Aaron [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000254484667)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Demand-adaptive Transit Design for Urban Transportation Hubs

In this study, we proposed a novel three-stage framework for planning the optimal demand-adaptive transit (DAT) at urban transportation hubs. Given the potential trip demand and road traffic condition, the proposed framework sequentially generates the optimal set of candidate routes, combines the outgoing routes and incoming routes at the hub, and derives the optimal fleet size and corresponding route frequency under the fixed budget. In particular, we build the route generation algorithm which maximizes passenger demand coverage with travel time deviation constraint. And a heuristic algorithm is further developed which yields near-optimal operation routes for real-time demand. The fleet optimization problem is formulated to minimize the weighted cost of energy savings, operation cost and trip revenue. We conduct comprehensive numerical experiments for planning DAT with electric buses at JFK airport in NYC using NYC taxi and for-hire vehicle trip data and GoogleMap speed data. The results show the superior performance of the proposed route generation algorithm which is able to cover citywide passenger demand with only 61 DAT routes. The results also suggest that the proposed DAT planning framework may serve over 47% of existing taxi and FHV demand by operating 18 routes using the fleet of 62 electric buses.

demand adaptive↗

DOE OSTI2025

Robust Multi-fidelity Bayesian Optimization with Deep Kernel and Partition

Multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization (MFBO) is a powerful approach that utilizes lowfidelity, cost-effective sources to expedite the exploration and exploitation of a high-fidelity objective function. Existing MFBO methods with theoretical foundations either lack justification for performance improvements over single-fidelity optimization or rely on strong assumptions about the relationships between fidelity sources to construct surrogate models and direct queries to low-fidelity sources. To mitigate the dependency on cross-fidelity assumptions while maintaining the advantages of low-fidelity queries, we introduce a random sampling and partition-based MFBO framework with deep kernel learning. This framework is robust to cross-fidelity model misspecification and explicitly illustrates the benefits of low-fidelity queries. Our results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm effectively manages complex cross-fidelity relationships and efficiently optimizes the target fidelity function.

Zhang, Fengxue [University of Chicago, Illinois, U↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimal load attachment of a deeply embedded ring anchor in clay

A Deeply Embedded Ring Anchor (DERA) system has been developed as a cost-effective solution for mooring arrays of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) to the seabed. The DERA boasts several key features, including its versatility in various soil types, compact size, compatibility with diverse mooring systems, multi-line potential, and robust performance even under unintentional loading conditions. While prior preliminary studies have provided valuable insights into how the DERA can enhance cost-effectiveness by offering a high load capacity, these studies have predominantly focused on optimizing anchor performance under translational horizontal and vertical loading. However, to design the DERA optimally, we must also consider its ability to handle inclined loading conditions in addition to lateral and axial loadings. Due to its shorter length compared to a conventional caisson, the DERA has less resistance to moments, making it more sensitive to horizontal load capacity and the optimal load attachment depth concerning load angle. For this reason, our study introduces an analytical approach to evaluate the effects of inclined loading on anchor performance, utilizing the previously validated upper bound plastic limit analysis (PLA) method. In investigating the optimal load attachment of the DERA, this paper conducts a parametric study to analyze how factors such as load attachment depth, anchor aspect ratio, and load inclination affect the DERA’s load capacity. Our findings indicate that PLA can serve as a valuable analytical tool for assessing the ultimate load capacity of the DERA, particularly under inclined loading conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrating Solar Energy, Desalination, and Electrolysis

Solar electricity enables the advancement and deployment of technologies that are strongly influenced by clean energy availability and cost. The economics of both desalination and hydrogen production from water electrolysis are dominated by the cost of energy, and the availability of inexpensive solar energy creates markets and offers incentives to the desalination and electrolyzer industries. In this report the production of high-purity water and hydrogen from seawater is focused on. Current electrolyzers require deionized water so they need to be coupled with desalination units. It is shown that such coupling is cost effective in hydrogen generation, and it also offers benefits to thermal desalination, which can utilize waste heat from electrolysis. Furthermore, such coupling can be optimized when electrolyzers operate at high current density, using low-cost solar and/or wind electricity, as such operation increases both hydrogen production and heat generation. Results of technoeconomic modeling of polymer electrolyte membrane electrolyzers define thresholds of electricity pricing, current density, and operating temperature that make clean electrolytic hydrogen cost competitive with hydrogen from steam methane reforming (SMR). By using 2020 hourly electricity pricing in California and Texas, it is estimated that hydrogen can be produced from seawater in coupled desalination-electrolyzer systems at prices near $2 kg -1 H 2 , reaching cost parity with hydrogen produced from SMR.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Wind Turbine Rotor Design Using High-Fidelity Aerostructural Optimization

Large wind turbines yield more energy but demand careful aeroelastic blade design. Coupled multiphysics design strategies can reduce wind energy costs by exploiting fluid-structure interactions. This work presents the first high-fidelity aerostructural optimization study of a large wind turbine rotor. We use blade-resolved fluid dynamics and structural solvers in a monolithic gradient-based optimization framework to explore steady-state torque and blade mass tradeoffs. The coupled-adjoint approach computes gradients efficiently, enabling the optimization of over 100 structural and geometric parameters simultaneously. Our optimization study modifies a DTU 10 MW benchmark with a simplified structure and isotropic material properties. The tightly coupled optimizations increase torque by 14% while reducing rotor mass by 9% or reduce blade mass by 27% while maintaining torque. Blade-resolved models provide greater design freedom, enabling 5% higher mass reductions than conventional parameterizations at equal torque. This framework paves the way for more detailed high-fidelity optimization studies to complement conventional design approaches.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Multi-Objective Cost of Uncertainty

Various real-world applications involve modeling complex systems with immense uncertainty and optimizing multiple objectives based on the uncertain model. Quantifying the impact of the model uncertainty on the given operational objectives is critical for designing optimal experiments that can most effectively reduce the uncertainty that affect the objectives pertinent to the application at hand. In this paper, we propose the concept of mean multi-objective cost of uncertainty (multi-objective MOCU) that can be used for objective-based quantification of uncertainty for complex uncertain systems considering multiple operational objectives. We provide several illustrative examples that demonstrate the concept and strengths of the proposed multi-objective MOCU. Furthermore, we present a real-world example based on the mammalian cell cycle network to demonstrate how the multi-objective MOCU can be used for quantifying the operational impact of model uncertainty when there are multiple, possibly competing, objectives.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Circular Collider Feasibility Study Report

Volume 3 of the FCC Feasibility Report presents studies related to civil engineering, the development of a project implementation scenario, and environmental and sustainability aspects. The report details the iterative improvements made to the civil engineering concepts since 2018, taking into account subsurface conditions, accelerator and experiment requirements, and territorial considerations. It outlines a technically feasible and economically viable civil engineering configuration that serves as the baseline for detailed subsurface investigations, construction design, cost estimation, and project implementation planning. Additionally, the report highlights ongoing subsurface investigations in key areas to support the development of an improved 3D subsurface model of the region. The report describes the development of the project scenario based on the ‘avoid-reduce-compensate’ iterative optimisation approach. The reference scenario balances optimal physics performance with territorial compatibility, implementation risks, and costs. Environmental field investigations covering almost 600 hectares of terrain—including numerous urban, economic, social, and technical aspects—confirmed the project’s technical feasibility and contributed to the preparation of essential input documents for the formal project authorisation phase. The summary also highlights the initiation of public dialogue as part of the authorisation process. The results of a comprehensive socio-economic impact assessment, which included significant environmental effects, are presented. Even under the most conservative and stringent conditions, a positive benefit-cost ratio for the FCC-ee is obtained. Finally, the report provides a summary of the studies conducted to document the current state of the environment.

Benedikt, M. [European Organization for Nuclear Re↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty-aware mixed-variable machine learning for materials design

Abstract Data-driven design shows the promise of accelerating materials discovery but is challenging due to the prohibitive cost of searching the vast design space of chemistry, structure, and synthesis methods. Bayesian optimization (BO) employs uncertainty-aware machine learning models to select promising designs to evaluate, hence reducing the cost. However, BO with mixed numerical and categorical variables, which is of particular interest in materials design, has not been well studied. In this work, we survey frequentist and Bayesian approaches to uncertainty quantification of machine learning with mixed variables. We then conduct a systematic comparative study of their performances in BO using a popular representative model from each group, the random forest-based Lolo model (frequentist) and the latent variable Gaussian process model (Bayesian). We examine the efficacy of the two models in the optimization of mathematical functions, as well as properties of structural and functional materials, where we observe performance differences as related to problem dimensionality and complexity. By investigating the machine learning models’ predictive and uncertainty estimation capabilities, we provide interpretations of the observed performance differences. Our results provide practical guidance on choosing between frequentist and Bayesian uncertainty-aware machine learning models for mixed-variable BO in materials design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enhancement of operational Flexibility of Power Plants Using IN740

Headers are crucial components within diverse industries, especially in the energy sector, as they enable the efficient transfer of fluids. The selection of materials for headers is determined by their specific applications; for example, Grade 91 and Grade 92 steels are commonly utilized. In our research, we recommend the adoption of INCONEL alloy 740 due to its exceptional robustness and heat-resistant characteristics. One critical parameter in header systems is the heat transfer coefficient, which directly influences the efficiency of heat exchange processes and can thereby impact the structural integrity of the headers. This coefficient is closely linked with factors such as the Nusselt number, which is influenced by fluid flow characteristics and thermal properties. The flow direction within headers, whether unidirectional or multidirectional—significantly affects the overall dynamics of heat transfer. This research focuses on exploring the behavior of headers, a specific pipeline system component, using ANSYS simulation software. The study aims to predict heat transfer and mechanical behavior within headers under various conditions through steady-state and transient simulations (parts 1 and 2 of the report). Key parameters such as heat transfer coefficient, velocity, and temperature are examined with the goal of optimizing header design. Part 3 of the report addresses the critical yet underexplored relationship between pressure drop and heat transfer coefficients in the transient flow regime within headers, specifically focusing on smooth horizontal circular tubes. Limited experimental work has been conducted in this area, prompting the need for comprehensive analysis. By leveraging machine learning techniques, this research aims to establish a correlation between pressure drop and heat transfer across various flow conditions, including laminar, transient, quasi-turbulent, and turbulent regimes. The data utilized for this analysis were meticulously gathered from existing literature, capturing simultaneous measurements of pressure drops and heat transfer. Part 4: In the context of power plants, header pipes are essential components that significantly influence system performance by facilitating the collection and distribution of steam. This report highlights the critical role of header pipes in enhancing reliability, efficiency, and overall power plant performance. A key aspect of this investigation is shape optimization, which aims to maximize performance while minimizing material usage. By focusing on shape optimization, this research contributes to improved efficiency and a reduced environmental footprint for power plant installations. The methodology developed in this study emphasizes optimizing header shapes to decrease reliance on expensive alloy materials and lower maintenance costs. Furthermore, a case study was conducted using a header from an operational power plant to validate the proposed optimization techniques. Finally, part 5 addresses the challenges associated with flexible operations in boiler systems, the study outlines several strategies for enhancing the durability and reliability of steam headers. Key approaches include material selection, which involves utilizing advanced materials with superior high-temperature properties and enhanced fatigue resistance to extend the lifespan of steam headers. Design modifications are also recommended, focusing on implementing changes that mitigate thermal stress and cyclic loading to reduce the likelihood of failures under varying operating conditions. Additionally, the study emphasizes the importance of regular inspection and monitoring by establishing rigorous protocols to detect early signs of damage, allowing for timely maintenance and minimizing the risks of catastrophic failures. Furthermore, operational guidelines are developed to minimize the frequency and severity of thermal transients, ensuring stable and efficient operations. Collectively, these strategies provide a robust framework for overcoming the unique challenges posed by flexible operation in boiler systems, ultimately contributing to improved reliability and performance in power plant operations. Through this comprehensive approach, the study not only enhances the understanding of pressure drop and heat transfer relationships but also promotes advancements in design and operation that will benefit the entire power generation industry.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of a Control Co-Design Modeling Tool for Marine Hydrokinetic Turbines: Preprint

This report describes the ongoing and planned development of the software package CT-Opt (Current/Tidal Optimization), a control co-design modeling tool for marine hydrokinetic turbines. The commercialization of these turbines has faced significant challenges due to the complex, multidisciplinary nature of their design and the extreme environmental conditions of their operation. This project aims to create a modeling tool that will enable the efficient design of robust, cost-competitive hydrokinetic turbine systems. Rather than using traditional optimization methods, CT-Opt combines multiple models across a range of fidelities to enable coupled optimization of the system design and system controller via a control co-design approach. With this method, the parameters that affect system performance are considered more comprehensively at every stage of the design process. The lowest-fidelity, frequency-domain model called by CT-Opt is RAFT (Response Amplitudes of Floating Turbines), which was originally developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to model response amplitudes of floating offshore wind turbines. The highest-fidelity, time-domain model is OpenFAST, which was developed by NREL for land-based and offshore wind turbines. As part of the CT-Opt project, new functionalities will be added to RAFT and OpenFAST to enable the accurate simulation of fixed and floating marine hydrokinetic turbines. In addition to expanding the capabilities of RAFT and OpenFAST, new midfidelity models will be developed. These models will be based on RAFT and OpenFAST and will consist of linearized, state-space models derived from the fully coupled, nonlinear OpenFAST equations and derivative function surrogate models that approximate the nonlinear system behavior. Each model will be coupled with controllers to allow control co-design methods to be applied both within models and across fidelity levels, enabling efficient system optimization.

control co-design↗

DOE OSTI2026

Effects of Media Nutrient Variation on Microalgae Productivity and Economics During Semi-Continuous Cultivation

The development of large-scale microalgae growth for biofuel production is currently limited by the cost of biomass production. However, new approaches to infrastructure and cultivation practices are bringing the field closer to realization. Macronutrients in the cultivation media contribute significant costs, especially since their concentrations have not been optimized for specific strains and conditions. Environmental photobioreactors (ePBRs) were used to simulate cultivation under outdoor conditions, during which the nitrogen and phosphorus levels in the media were varied. The growth of two potential biofuel production strains, Picochlorum celeri and Tetraselmis striata, with varying nutrient inputs during summer and winter scripts, respectively, was studied. This study demonstrated that nitrogen and phosphorus in f/2 media could be reduced by more than 60% from the standard formulation, while maintaining growth rates in a semi-continuous harvesting approach. Experiments comparing the standard and reduced nutrient input concentrations were also conducted for both species in 820 L outdoor raceway ponds, in Mesa, AZ. P. celeri grown in these ponds in October had a growth rate of 10.6 ± 0.7 g/m 2 /day and 10.6 ± 0.3 g/m 2 /day for the standard and low-nutrient P. celeri ponds, respectively. T. striata grown in April–May had a growth rate of 16.6 ± 1.4 g/m 2 /day for the standard nutrient input ponds and 17.4 ± 1.1 g/m 2 /day for the low-nutrient input ponds, and in October 14.5 ± 0.6 g/m 2 /day for standard nutrient ponds and 14.4 ± 0.6 g/m 2 /day for low-nutrient ponds. These outdoor data therefore confirmed the indoor ePBR data. Techno-economic analysis shows that, if high growth rates can be attained at lower nutrient concentrations, a reduction of at least 60% in nutrient costs can be achieved. Such results highlight the importance of managing macronutrient media inputs, as these have a considerable contribution to biomass production costs in large-scale facilities. The analysis also points to the importance of maintaining high spent medium recycling rates in an industrial deployment, so as to minimize the losses of nitrogen and phosphorus compounds.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A mixed integer linear programming approach for the design of chemical process families

Tackling climate change goals requires widespread deployment of process technology variants across many decentralized sites with different geographical, environmental, and operational requirements. Conventional engineering approaches focus on unique designs for each installation (process variant), while missing opportunities for manufacturing standardization. Here, instead we seek to optimize a process platform of common unit designs while simultaneously designing an entire family of process variants that make use of that platform. This reduces engineering effort, deployment timelines, and manufacturing costs. We propose a nonlinear generalized disjunctive programming formulation and convert this to an efficient mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation through discretization of the design space. We formulate our optimization in Pyomo with costing from IDAES, and we demonstrate the computational performance and solution quality on a water treatment desalination system from the PARETO framework and a carbon capture system built in Aspen Plus as part of CCSI2.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thermoeconomic Evaluation and Optimization of Using Different Environmentally Friendly Refrigerant Pairs for a Dual-Evaporator Cascade Refrigeration System

Applications of dual-evaporator refrigeration systems have recently gained much attention both in academia and industry due to their multiple benefits. In this study, a comprehensive thermodynamic and economic analysis is conducted to evaluate the potential of using several environmentally friendly refrigerant couples and identifies the most suitable one yielding the best economic results. To achieve this goal, a detailed parametric study is conducted, and an optimization process is performed using a particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach to minimize the unit production cost of cooling (UPCC) of the cascade refrigeration system. The results showed that among all selected 18 refrigerant pairs and for all ranges of examined operating parameters, the R170-R161 pair and R1150-R1234yf pair are identified as the best and worst pairs, respectively, from both thermodynamic and economic viewpoints. The results also confirm that R170-R161 pair has an improvement over R717-R744, used as a typical refrigerant pair of cascade refrigeration cycles. For a base case analysis, the COP of R170-R161 and R1150-R1234yf pairs is determined as 1.727 and 1.552, respectively, while their UPCC is found to be $0.395/ton-hr and $0.419/ton-hr, respectively, showing the influence of proper selection of refrigerant pairs on the cascade cycle’s performance. Overall, this study offers a useful thermodynamic and economic insight regarding the selection of proper refrigerant pairs for a dual-evaporator cascade vapor compression refrigeration system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Uniform Methods Project: Smart Thermostat Evaluation Protocol

A smart thermostat is an internet-connected device that controls home heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment and can automatically adjust temperature set points to optimize performance and achieve energy savings. Smart thermostat features often include two way communication, occupancy detection (such as geofencing and occupancy sensors), schedule learning, and seasonal optimization algorithms. Smart thermostats can control most conventional HVAC systems, including central air conditioners, heat pumps, and forced air furnaces. Several types of residential utility programs offer smart thermostats as replacements measures. Working with smart thermostat vendors, utilities can offer separate optimization programs to produce energy savings beyond those achieved by installing a smart thermostat. From an evaluation perspective, smart thermostat programs have several noteworthy features. First, the energy savings from a smart thermostat may change over the life of the device. As a smart thermostat is connected to the internet, original equipment manufacturers can update the thermostat software to improve the thermostat's energy efficiency. Likewise, users can adjust the thermostat settings and schedules over time in response to changes in weather, thermal comfort, energy prices, or preferences for energy efficiency. Additionally, many thermostat manufacturers offer seasonal optimization programs that recommend changes or make minor, automated adjustments to the thermostat settings to improve energy efficiency. These opt-in programs are now standard offerings for many smart thermostat manufacturers and provided at no additional cost to users. The potential for software updates and continuous optimization and the evolving nature of user interactions mean future energy savings may differ from first-year savings and the energy savings of smart thermostats may need to be evaluated more than once. Second, smart thermostats often have small unit energy savings relative to a home's total energy consumption, especially in comparison to whole- home retrofit programs. This can make it difficult to detect the smart thermostat savings in billing or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meter consumption data. For example, as cooling loads in many regions average about 20% of annual electricity consumption, smart thermostat savings of 10% of cooling energy use would equate to a 2% reduction in home electricity consumption. Evaluators should use regression analysis of whole-home billing consumption or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meter consumption data to evaluate smart thermostat savings because, as explained at greater length below , these data are usually available to evaluators and regression can control for the impacts of weather and other potentially confounding factors on a home's energy consumption. Finally, as with other energy efficiency programs, participation in smart thermostat programs is self-selective. As discussed at greater length below , smart thermostat participants tend to be, among other things, younger, higher-income, and more likely to adopt electric vehicles (EVs) and internet connected devices than nonparticipants. These differences are often unobservable to the evaluator and correlated with a home's energy consumption, creating the potential for bias in estimating savings. Due to the small unit savings of thermostats, errors and biases from self-selection that may not be very consequential when evaluating a whole- home retrofits (e.g., ±2% of home electricity consumption) can have a major impact when evaluating the savings and cost-effectiveness of smart thermostat programs. A percentage point change in the estimated savings could affect the cost-effectiveness of a program. This means it is important for evaluators to assess and to minimize the potential for error from selection bias in estimating smart thermostat program savings. The Uniform Methods Project provides model protocols for determining energy savings and demand reductions that result from specific energy efficiency measures implemented through state and utility programs. In most cases, the measure protocols are based on a particular option identified by the International Performance Verification and Measurement Protocol ; however, this work provides a more detailed approach to implementing that option. Each chapter is written by technical experts in collaboration with their peers, reviewed by industry experts, and subject to public review and comment. The UMP protocols can be used by utilities, program administrators, public utility commissions, evaluators, and other stakeholders for both program planning and evaluation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗