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At least 919 records · Page 51
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Iron precipitation under controlled oxygen flow: Mineralogical implications for BIF precursors in the Archean ocean

Banded iron formation (BIF) deposition in the Archean ocean is thought to have been initiated by the oxidation of dissolved iron into ferric primary precursor phases that descended through the water column and were deposited on the seafloor. Effective interpretation of the trace element and isotopic composition of BIFs in the geologic record requires an understanding of the identity and longevity of those precursor phases. Temporal and spatial variation in oxidant concentration and ocean chemistry may have driven precursor mineralogy. Furthermore, precursor phases may undergo transitions during descent and burial. This experimental study follows the evolution of iron mineralogy, speciation, and redox state during the precipitation of iron under variable oxygen fluxes and in fluids containing different iron-complexing anions (chloride, sulfate, and phosphate). Additionally, suspensions collected after incomplete oxidation were anoxically aged to simulate changes to precursor mineralogy during descent below the seawater redoxcline. Results from X-ray diffraction, sequential dissolution, colorimetric determination of Fe redox state, and Fe K-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy showed that under all experimental conditions, intermediate precipitates collected before complete iron uptake contained mineralized ferrous iron. Purely ferric mineral assemblages were not observed until iron was removed from solution. In low-oxygen experiments, intermediate precipitates contained phases with stoichiometric Fe 2+ , including magnetite, vivianite, and green rust (GR). Chloride green rust (GR1) had more ferric iron than sulfate green rust (GR2) and more readily transitioned to magnetite via disproportionation. GR2 was stable over a broader range of iron uptake; magnetite appeared mainly as an additional oxidation product in sulfate solution. In high oxygen experiments, mineralized ferrous iron occurred in amorphous phases or as a non-stoichiometric component in ferric oxides; final ferric assemblages were less crystalline than in low-oxygen equivalents. Low concentrations of phosphate increased the total iron oxidation rate, but also increased the ferrous content of intermediate precipitates. The incorporation of phosphate stabilized GR2 and facilitated GR2 precipitation over a larger range of iron uptake. In higher concentrations of phosphate, vivianite and poorly crystalline ferric hydroxides formed in place of GR. Here, these findings suggest that over a range of possible ocean chemistries, mixed-valence phases may have been short lived but relevant precursors to BIF. Additionally, anionic chemistry and oxidant concentration are shown to influence the crystallinity and chemical resistivity of final ferric assemblages, affecting their reactivity during later anoxic burial.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Phase change material-to-refrigerant heat exchangers: Experimental validation and uneven melting analysis

Thermal energy storage (TES) using phase change materials (PCMs) enables load shifting and reduces mismatches between the building's thermal demand and the heat pump (HP) system's thermal capacity. While most TES studies have focused on single-phase heat transfer fluids, PCM-to-refrigerant heat exchangers (PRHX), in which the refrigerant undergoes liquid-vapor phase change, remain largely underexplored. Here, to address this gap, this study systematically investigates a shell-and-tube PRHX operating as the condenser in an HP through experiments and simulations. A two-dimensional enthalpy-based finite-volume PRHX model was developed and validated against experimental data, including refrigerant and PCM temperature profiles, PRHX capacity, and system-level performance. Results show three characteristic stages: Stage I, the condenser temperature rapidly increases with PCM in the solid state absorbing sensible heat; Stage II, stable operation during PCM phase change; and Stage III, performance decline once part of the PCM becomes fully melted. Heat transfer analysis revealed that uneven PCM melting along the condenser length was driven primarily by variations in the refrigerant-side heat transfer coefficient, rather than local approach temperature differences. Further study demonstrated that minimizing refrigerant outlet subcooling led to more uniform PCM melting and extended Stages I and II by up to 89%. This paper provides a validated PRHX model, clarifies the mechanisms of uneven PCM melting, and highlights subcooling control as an effective strategy to improve TES performance in HP systems without requiring secondary loops.

Graphite matrix↗
DOE OSTI2025

Czochralski Growth and Characterization of a Compositionally Complex Rare Earth Aluminum Garnet Scintillator: (Gd 1/4 Y 1/4 Tb 1/4 Lu 1/4 ) 3 Al 5 O 12 :Ce

Compositionally complex oxides have garnered increasing interest for their enhanced phase stability and tunable functional properties, yet their development as bulk single crystal scintillators remains limited. Herein, we report the Czochralski growth and characterization of (Gd 1/4 Y 1/4 Tb 1/4 Lu 1/4 ) 3 Al 5 O 12 :Ce (GYTLAG), a compositionally complex garnet incorporating four dodecahedrally coordinated principal rare earth elements. The garnet phase was confirmed by powder and single crystal X-ray diffraction, and macroscopic defects are described. X-ray absorption near-edge structure measurements confirm the 3+ oxidation state of all rare earths and support their occupation of the same crystallographic site; white line intensity variations correlate with the anticipated segregation behavior. Elemental segregation is quantified by SEM/EDS and ICP-OES, and a linear trend was established between the segregation coefficient and the difference between each rare earth’s ionic radius (r) and the average ionic radius (AIR) of the dodecahedral site. This trend offers a predictive framework for compositional control in future REAG crystals grown by the Czochralski method. Photoluminescence and radioluminescence measurements reveal both Ce 3+ and Tb 3+ emission. Scintillation pulses exhibit four-component decay with dominant ~230 µs and ~1.2 ms components, and the light yield is estimated to be up to 43,000 ph/MeV under 137Cs γ-ray excitation. GYTLAG also demonstrates a strong radioluminescence efficiency and 50% lower afterglow at 20 ms compared to a LuAG:Ce reference, underscoring its promise for scintillator applications.

Compositionally complex oxide, high entropy oxide,↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extended Oxygen Octahedral Tilt Proximity near Oxide Heterostructures

The oxide interfaces between materials with different structural symmetries have been actively studied due to their novel physical properties. However, the investigation of intriguing interfacial phenomena caused by the oxygen octahedral tilt (OOT) proximity effect has not been fully exploited, as there is still no clear understanding of what determines the proximity length and what the underlying control mechanism is. Here, we achieved scalability of the OOT proximity effect in SrRuO 3 (SRO) by epitaxial strain near the SRO/SrTiO 3 heterointerface. We demonstrated that the OOT proximity length scale of SRO is extended from 4 unit cells to 14 unit cells by employing advanced scanning transmission electron microscopy. We also suggest that this variation may originate from changes in phonon dispersions due to electron-phonon coupling in SRO. Here, this study will provide in-depth insights into the structural gradients of correlated systems and facilitate potential device applications.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Controlling the breakdown delay time in pulsed gas discharge

Abstract In experiment and 2D3V PIC MCC simulations, the breakdown development in a pulsed discharge in helium is studied for U = 3.2 kV and 10 kV and P = 100 Torr. The breakdown process is found to have a stochastic nature, and the electron avalanche develops in different experimental and simulation runs with time delays ranging from 0.3 to 8 μ s. Nevertheless our experiments demonstrate that the breakdown delay time distribution can be controlled with a change of the pulse discharge frequency. The simulation results show that the breakdown process can be distinguished in three stages with (a) the ionization by seed electrons, (b) the ions drift to the cathode and (c) the enhanced ionization within the cathode sheath by the electrons emitted from the cathode. The effects of variation of seed electron concentrations, voltage rise times, voltage amplitudes and ion–electron emission coefficients on the breakdown development in the pulsed gas discharge are reported.

Schweigert, I. V. (ORCID:0000000223641228)↗
DOE OSTI2026

An evaluation of air quality in major urban areas of India

Rapid economic growth and burgeoning population have contributed to enhanced levels of PM 2.5 concentrations in urban regions of India. Evaluation of ambient air quality facilitates the assessment of effectiveness of emission control measures and early identification of new sources. This study provides a comprehensive statistical analysis of PM 2.5 concentrations in key urban areas across India, including Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad, and several regional centers. Data from 2017 to 2023 was analyzed using trend analysis, cluster analysis, principal component analysis, and geostatistical interpolation to understand spatiotemporal variations and sources. The analysis reveals significant differences in spatial distribution of PM 2.5 concentrations with high annual averages in urban regions in Indo-Gangetic plain (82–123 μg m −3 ) and relatively lower concentrations (29–46 μg m −3 ) in southern urban areas of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Delhi state had the highest 24-averaged PM 2.5 concentrations (112 μg m −3 ) followed by urban regions in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal (94 μg m −3 ). Trend analysis from 2017 to 2023 revealed an overall 2.5% decline in site-wide PM2.5 concentrations, with the exception of Ludhiana, which exhibited a consistent annual increase of 10%. Principal component analysis (PCA) attributes 30% of the variance to wintertime emissions, 13% to biomass burning, and 18% to the regional haze in the northern Indo-Gangetic Plain. Different analyses clearly demonstrates the contribution of biomass burning to pollution in Delhi and surrounding cities. Transboundary pollution to Kolkata is likely from the highly polluted region in Indo-Gangetic Plain. Coastal cities of Mumbai and Chennai has relatively lower pollution attributed to the influence of sea breeze dilution, with mostly local contribution and some potential transport from upwind industry clusters. Hyderabad also has local contribution due to high density of vehicular traffic and local small industries. This study shows that mitigation efforts targeting clusters of regions should be undertaken to curb the high PM2.5 pollution. Policy measures should be implemented both at local and the intra-state level to address shared sources and transport of pollution.

Hysplitbacktrajectories↗
DOE OSTI2020

PV-Fed Smart Inverters for Mitigation of Voltage and Frequency Fluctuations in Islanded Microgrids

The presence of low-inertia distributed generation (DG) units makes islanded microgrids vulnerable to voltage and frequency variations. Besides, the considerable difference between the inertia of synchronous-based and inverter-based DGs results in a power imbalance between supply and demand during abnormal conditions. As a result, both voltage and frequency of microgrid ac-bus start oscillating which might have severe consequences such as blackouts. This paper deploys the traditional controller of photovoltaic (PV) units to improve the dynamic behavior of islanded microgrids by suppressing the voltage and frequency fluctuations. To this end, an adaptive piecewise droop (APD) characteristic is proposed and employed in PV units to attain a faster balance between generation and consumption during transients, leading to an enhanced frequency response. Besides, the reactive-power control loop is equipped with a droop characteristic which enables the PV units to inject/absorb reactive power during transients and participate in voltage-profile enhancement of the system. Case study results are presented using PSCAD/EMTDC to confirm the validity of proposed method in improving the dynamics of islanded microgrids.

Pilehvar, Mohsen S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

NREL CITIES Support (CRADA CRD-14-00558 Final Report)

The Technical University of Denmark has received a Grant from the Danish Council for Strategic Research for the project "CITIES - Centre for IT-Intelligent Energy Systems in Cities", a strategic research centre, which involves industrial partners and universities. The Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC will participate with DTU as an industrial partner in "CITIES" under this Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA). The Centre for IT based Intelligent Energy Systems in Cities (CITIES) Project is a Danish national research center focused on work in building short-term operational integrated energy system models that feed longer term plam1ing models, considering the spatio-temporal variations, interactions, dynamics and stochastics in the energy system, from production to consumption. CITIES will harness the extensive expertise and experience of its industrial and academic partners to conduct meaningful research with tangible outputs, including a roadmap to a fossil free future. Decision support tools will be developed to inform stakeholders of the impact of investment, control and policy measures and to identify further opportunities for energy system efficiency. Dissemination and transferring knowledge is a key value to this CRADA, and the use of results by Danish policymakers, industry and society is vital. All participants in the Centre for IT based Intelligent Energy Systems in Cities (CITIES) Project are therefore encouraged to use all means to communicate their findings to society. Wherever possible, and compatible with applicable intellectual property regulations, publications should be produced and disseminated under Open Science, Data, Source and Access principles.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Method for Projecting Cloud Shadows Onto a Central Receiver Field to Predict Receiver Damage

This work demonstrates methods of mapping high-spatial-resolution direct normal irradiance (DNI) data from satellites, Total Sky Imagers (TSIs), and analogous data sources onto a heliostat field for characterizing the spatial and temporal variation of the incident flux on a central receiver tower during cloud transient events. The mapping methods are incorporated into an optical software module that interfaces with CoPylot–SolarPILOT’s python API– to provide computationally efficient optical simulation of the heliostat field and the solar power tower. Eventually, this optical model will be incorporated into optimization models whereby a plant operator can understand the effects of cloud transient events on overall power production and receiver lifetime due to creep-fatigue damage and therefore make better informed decisions about receiver shutdown events. By more accurately modelling the effects of cloud events on receiver flux maps, this work may determine the magnitude and frequency of thermal cycling on receiver tubes and panels using actual or realistic cloud shapes instead of averaged DNI values–which may undercount the total cycle number. This work may also prevent unnecessary plant shutdowns due to overly precautionary control strategies and characterize the relative impact of various cloud types on receiver life. We plan to eventually integrate this methodology into the System Advisor Model (SAM) to improve performance model accuracy during periods of cloudiness. In this paper, we demonstrate generating DNI maps and mapping them to a solar field in CoPylot using 10 m resolution data from publicly available Sentinel-2 satellite data over the Crescent Dunes plant.

Mullin, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2023

A reduced-order modeling of a tubular solar reactor for long duration thermochemical energy storage

The storage of solar energy in a solid form, referred to as a “solar fuel”, can be achieved through a process known as endothermic solar thermochemistry. This process transforms the absorbed solar energy into a stable and retrievable form that can be stored for extended periods of time. This paper presents a low–order heat transfer model of a counter–current tubular falling bed reactor designed to produce thermally reduced magnesium manganese oxide pellets for long duration thermochemical energy storage. The energy required for the endothermic reduction was supplied by concentrated solar energy or renewable electricity via indirect heating of the gas and solid reactants flowing in a ceramic tube. The counter-current gas flow enhances the mixing of the solid particles with the heat recuperation zone, allowing the gas and particles to enter and exit the tubular reactor close to room temperature. Further, the reactor was vertically oriented and was heated circumferentially by an adjustable level heat flux along a finite segment of its length. The temperature distribution of the reactor in response to transient changes along the tube was modeled by considering conduction, convection, and radiation heat transfer. Governing equations for the heat transfer model were solved by discretizing the reactor tube into a finite number of control volumes and using an energy balance for the heat exchange between the reactor wall, gas, and particles within the control volume. The energy absorbed during this endothermic reaction was modeled numerically by fitting the data of the chemical conversion rate with the corresponding temperature of particles in the heating zone. The numerical model has been experimentally validated using a reactor prototype made of a 121.92 cm alumina tube heated by a 7kW electric tube–furnace. The alumina tube receives magnesium manganese oxide pellets of 3.66±0.516 mm in diameter from the top, and a counter–current gas flow from the bottom. The reactor wall temperature was monitored by six thermocouples installed along the reactor tube length. The experimental procedure was numerically simulated, and the temperature variation along the reactor tube was compared with a matrix of experimental runs for a range of particles mass flowrates (0.75–1.25g/s) and corresponding gas flowrates (36–65 SLPM). The reactor system was heated gradually from room temperature to a steady state temperature of 1673K, and then cooled down to room temperature. The heating and cooling processes were simulated, and the numerical and experimental results were compared throughout processes. The numerical model showed similar trends to the experimental results, with an error of 0.69 to 7.9% for the particle inlet and 0.7 to 7.9% for the gas inlet during steady-state operation. The proposed numerical model can be implemented as a simplified physical model to design a feedback control system to regulate reactor temperature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Diagnostic assessment of reservoir response to fracturing: a case study from Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site (HFTS) in Midland Basin

Abstract This paper outlines a data collection and diagnostics case study involving multiple horizontal shale wells. We look at well production profiles using rate transient analysis, differences in near wellbore complexity, geologic variations within the area of interest, as well as compositional differences in the rocks based on cores obtained from within the stimulated reservoir. The Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site is a multi-well experiment involving stimulation of unconventional shale wells in the southeastern Midland portion of the Permian Basin. The targeted formations include both the upper as well as the middle Wolfcamp formations, also referred alternatively as Wolfcamp A and Wolfcamp B. Data integration and analysis shared in this paper help us understand the various geologic controls impacting well productivity, particularly the wide variance observed between the Wolfcamp A and Wolfcamp B formations. Rate transient analysis indicates similar system permeabilities for stimulated wells. However, we observe higher effective fracture half-lengths for upper Wolfcamp wells. Using observations from 3D seismic interpretations (such as pad scale faults) as well as petrophysical and image log data, we highlight the substantial differences in stimulation as we move along the well laterals from the heel toward the toe sections. These differences are further reconciled with observations from zones with high data density at the core locations through stimulated rock, as well as independent data such as microseismic emissions. At the test site, Wolfcamp A was found to be relatively quartz rich with significant heterogeneity whereas Wolfcamp B is richer in clay and organic content. This impacts the geomechanical characteristics of the rock mass with much higher natural fracture density in the shallower interval. Thus, the fracture growth is more uniform in the deeper interval and more heterogeneous with branching likely in upper interval. Increased complexity also leads to consistently better productivity from the wells in the shallower interval as demonstrated from RTA results. This case study is unique because it provides valuable insights from actual sampling of the stimulated zones in hydraulically fractured wells and helps understand impact of various factors that contribute toward variability in well production. The findings from this study provides insights into need for optimization of completion designs in the various Wolfcamp landing zones, such as optimization of cluster or fracture spacing in various Wolfcamp intervals. In addition, it provides a useful template for data collection and research direction in future field test sites of similar nature in unconventional reservoirs.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2023

Consequences and Control of Multiscale Order/Disorder in Chiral Magnetic Textures

Transition metal intercalated transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) are promising platforms for next-generation spintronic devices based on their wide range of electronic and magnetic phases, which can be tuned by varying the host lattice or intercalant’s identity, stoichiometry, or spatial order. Some of these compounds host a chiral magnetic phase in which the helical winding of magnetic moments propagates along a high-symmetry crystalline axis. Previous studies have demonstrated that variation in intercalant concentrations can have a dramatic effect on the formation of chiral domains and ensemble magnetic properties. However, a systematic and comprehensive study of how atomic-scale order and disorder impact these chiral magnetic textures is so far lacking. Here, we leverage a combination of imaging modes in the (scanning) transmission electron microscope (S/TEM) to directly probe (dis)order across multiple length scales and show how subtle changes in the atomic lattice can tune the mesoscale spin textures and bulk magnetic response in Cr 1/3 NbS 2 , with direct implications for the fundamental understanding and technological implementation of such compounds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploring topography-based methods for downscaling subgrid precipitation for use in Earth System Models

Topography exerts major control on land surface processes. To improve representation of topographic impacts on land surface processes, a new topography-based subgrid structure has been introduced to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model to represent the subgrid heterogeneity of surface elevation. To take advantage of the new subgrid structure for improving land surface modeling, this study explores four variations of topography-based methods for downscaling grid precipitation to the corresponding subgrids. In the first three methods, the deviation of the subgrid precipitation from the grid’s is equal to the grid precipitation multiplied by the ratio of the elevation difference between the subgrid and grid mean to a specified elevation equals to the grid elevation, the difference between the maximum and minimum subgrid elevation, and the maximum subgrid elevation, respectively. The second method limits the ratio to 0.5 to avoid extreme values on mountains and the third method accounts for the slope effect. The fourth method is similar to the third method except that the Froude Number is used to limit the numerator in a blocking regime of the ambient flow. The downscaled precipitation is evaluated using the PRISM precipitation data over the U.S. using statistical metrics. Results show that by accounting for topographic slope besides elevation, the third and fourth methods show clear advantages over the first and second methods. Furthermore, introducing the Froude Number in the fourth method improves downscaling skill and shows consistent advantages over the third method in areas with larger subgrid heterogeneity across different grids sizes.

Tesfa, Teklu K.↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-temperature concomitant metal-insulator and spin-reorientation transitions in a compressed nodal-line ferrimagnet Mn 3 Si 2 Te 6

Symmetry-protected band degeneracy, coupled with a magnetic order, is the key to realizing novel magnetoelectric phenomena in topological magnets. While the spin-polarized nodal states have been identified to introduce extremely-sensitive electronic responses to the magnetic states, their possible role in determining magnetic ground states has remained elusive. Here, taking external pressure as a control knob, we show that a metal-insulator transition, a spin-reorientation transition, and a structural modification occur concomitantly when the nodal-line state crosses the Fermi level in a ferrimagnetic semiconductor Mn 3 Si 2 Te 6 . These unique pressure-driven magnetic and electronic transitions, associated with the dome-shaped Tc variation up to nearly room temperature, originate from the interplay between the spin-orbit coupling of the nodal-line state and magnetic frustration of localized spins. Our findings highlight that the nodal-line states, isolated from other trivial states, can facilitate strongly tunable magnetic properties in topological magnets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Design and Demonstration of AlxIn1-xP Multiple Quantum Well Light-Emitting Diodes

Direct bandgap AlxIn1-xP alloys offer an advantage for red and amber light-emitting diode (LED) operation over conventional (AlxGa1-x)0.5In0.5P alloys due to their higher direct bandgap energies. However, the coupled variation of its bandgap energy and lattice constant present challenges for fabricating quantum well-based LED devices on GaAs substrates. Here, we present the design and demonstration of AlxIn1-xP red and amber LEDs incorporating multiple quantum well structures. Strain balancing the quantum well layers and manipulating the AlxIn1-xP conduction band energy through control of spontaneous atomic ordering produce structures with higher electron confinement barriers than comparable (AlxGa1-x)0.5In0.5P LEDs. We also discuss future improvements that must be made to realize high efficiency red and amber LEDs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Can socio-economic indicators of vulnerability help predict spatial variations in the duration and severity of power outages due to tropical cyclones?

Abstract Tropical cyclones are the leading cause of major power outages in the U.S., and their effects can be devastating for communities. However, few studies have holistically examined the degree to which socio-economic variables can explain spatial variations in disruptions and reveal potential inequities thereof. Here, we apply machine learning techniques to analyze 20 tropical cyclones and predict county-level outage duration and percentage of customers losing power using a comprehensive set of weather, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Our models are able to accurately predict these outage response variables, but after controlling for the effects of weather conditions and environmental factors in the models, we find the effects of socio-economic variables to be largely immaterial. However, county-level data could be overlooking effects of socio-economic disparities taking place at more granular spatial scales, and we must remain aware of the fact that when faced with similar outage events, socio-economically vulnerable communities will still find it more difficult to cope with disruptions compared to less vulnerable ones.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

How Much Reserve Fuel: Quantifying the Maximal Energy Cost of System Disturbances

Motivated by the design question of additional fuel needed to complete a task in an uncertain environment, this paper introduces metrics to quantify the maximal additional energy used by a control system in the presence of bounded disturbances, compared to a nominal, disturbance-free system. In particular, we consider the task of finite-time stabilization for a linear, time-invariant system. We compare the nominal energy required to achieve this task in the disturbance-free system to the worst-case energy over all feasible disturbances. Solving for the worst-case energy over all disturbances first leads to an optimal control problem with a least-squares solution, and then an infinite-dimensional optimization problem where we derive an upper bound on the solution. The comparison of energies is accomplished using additive and multiplicative metrics, for which we derive bounds. Simulation examples on an ADMIRE fighter jet model demonstrate the practicability of these metrics, and their variation with the distance of the initial condition from the origin and the task completion time.

koopman operator, resilience↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Drivers of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability using a Stochastic Model Hierarchy

The relative importance of ocean and atmospheric dynamics in generating Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) remains an open question. Comparisons between climate models with SLAB and fully-dynamic (FULL) ocean components are often used to explore this question, but cannot reveal how individual ocean processes generate these differences. We build a hierarchy of physically interpretable stochastic models to investigate the contribution of two upper-ocean processes to AMV: the role of seasonal variation and mixed-layer entrainment. This interpretability arises from the stochastic model’s simplified representation of sea surface temperature (SST), considering only the local upper ocean response to white-noise atmospheric forcing and its impact on surface heat exchange. We focus on understanding differences between SLAB and FULL non-eddy resolving pre-industrial control simulations of the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM), and estimate the stochastic model parameters from each respective simulation. Despite its simplicity, the stochastic model reproduces temporal characteristics of SST variability in the SPG, including reemergence, seasonal-to-interannual persistence and power spectra. Furthermore, unrealistically persistent SST of the CESM-SLAB ocean simulation is reproduced in the equivalent stochastic model configuration where the mixed-layer depth (MLD) is constant. The stochastic model also reveals that vertical entrainment primarily damps SST variability, thus explaining why SLAB exhibits larger SST variance than FULL. Here, the stochastic model driven by temporally stochastic, spatially coherent forcing patterns reproduces the canonical AMV pattern. However, the amplitude of low-frequency variability remains underestimated, suggesting a role for ocean dynamics beyond entrainment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗