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At least 919 records · Page 51

Monitoring covariance in multivariate time series: Comparing machine learning and statistical approaches

Abstract In complex systems with multiple variables monitored at high‐frequency, variables are not only temporally autocorrelated, but they may also be nonlinearly related or exhibit nonstationarity as the inputs or operation changes. One approach to handling such variables is to detrend them prior to monitoring and then apply control charts that assume independence and stationarity to the residuals. Monitoring controlled systems is even more challenging because the control strategy seeks to maintain variables at prespecified mean levels, and to compensate, correlations among variables may change, making monitoring the covariance essential. In this paper, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) is compared with a multivariate random forest (MRF) and a neural network (NN) for detrending multivariate time series prior to monitoring the covariance of the residuals using a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart. Machine learning models have an advantage when the data's structure is unknown or may change. We design a novel simulation study with nonlinear, nonstationary, and autocorrelated data to compare the different detrending models and subsequent covariance monitoring. The machine learning models have superior performance for nonlinear and strongly autocorrelated data and similar performance for linear data. An illustration with data from a reverse osmosis process is given.

Weix, Derek↗

Differentiable, Learnable, Regionalized Process-Based Models With Multiphysical Outputs can Approach State-Of-The-Art Hydrologic Prediction Accuracy

Predictions of hydrologic variables across the entire water cycle have significant value for water resources management as well as downstream applications such as ecosystem and water quality modeling. Recently, purely data-driven deep learning models like long short-term memory (LSTM) showed seemingly insurmountable performance in modeling rainfall runoff and other geoscientific variables, yet they cannot predict untrained physical variables and remain challenging to interpret. Here, we show that differentiable, learnable, process-based models (called δ models here) can approach the performance level of LSTM for the intensively observed variable (streamflow) with regionalized parameterization. We use a simple hydrologic model HBV as the backbone and use embedded neural networks, which can only be trained in a differentiable programming framework, to parameterize, enhance, or replace the process-based model's modules. Without using an ensemble or post-processor, δ models can obtain a median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.732 for 671 basins across the USA for the Daymet forcing data set, compared to 0.748 from a state-of-the-art LSTM model with the same setup. For another forcing data set, the difference is even smaller: 0.715 versus 0.722. Meanwhile, the resulting learnable process-based models can output a full set of untrained variables, for example, soil and groundwater storage, snowpack, evapotranspiration, and baseflow, and can later be constrained by their observations. Both simulated evapotranspiration and fraction of discharge from baseflow agreed decently with alternative estimates. The general framework can work with models with various process complexity and opens up the path for learning physics from big data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wireless Sensing and Communication Capability from In-Core to a Monitoring Center

Significant cost savings can be made if electrical cables can be replaced by wireless technology in current Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) and in advance reactor designs. Wireless technology can also provide in-core opportunities by significantly reducing the number of penetrations in the pressure vessel, cost and complexity of sensor installation and by increasing the efficiency of current and advanced reactors. Unlike other deployment scenarios for an industrial environment, operators need to have centralized control over all the networks. Centralized control will reduce implementation costs, provide single point control and enable monitoring of network devices, improve security, and enhance connectivity. Micro-sensors that can simultaneously monitor temperature and pressure within a fuel rod inside nuclear reactors will enable preventative actions during abnormal operating conditions. This ability could avert accidents and enable the expedient development of accident tolerant fuels. A novel micro-sensor suite (~ mm) to simultaneously measure multiple parameters such as temperature, strain, pressure, and neutron/gamma flux inside a fuel rod is being developed for use in reactors. The necessary communication architecture is also being developed to transmit measurement signals from the core to the plant's data cloud or control room. A three three-tier strategy has been developed to support wireless transmission of in-core measurements to the control room or to a secure cloud platform for control, analytics, and decision-making purposes. 1. In-core: data signal from in-core to outside of the pressure vessel within the containment building 2. Containment building: data signal from inside to the outside of the containment building and into the balance of the plant network 3. Balance of the plant network: information transmitted to the data cloud and control room This plan presents a wireless sensing and communication system for use within a reactor core and elsewhere. The communication technology is advantageous to compensate for network equipment failures and adverse data transmission conditions. Wireless technology will significantly increase the resiliency of the plants network system. The wireless system naturally provides multiple transmission path capability and data redundancy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Unlocking Autonomous Telescopes through Reinforcement Learning: An Offline Framework and Insights from a Case Study

Optimizing observational astronomy campaigns is becoming a complex and expensive task for next-generation telescopes, where manual planning of observations may tend to reach suboptimal results in terms of optimization.Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been well-demonstrated as a valuable approach for training autonomous systems, and it may provide the basis for self-driving telescopes capable of scanning the sky and optimizing the scheduling for astronomy campaigns.We have developed a framework for the optimization of telescope scheduling using RL techniques, based on a dataset containing data on a discrete set of sky locations that the telescope should visit, and a reward metric. We compared several RL algorithms applied to an offline simulation dataset based at the Stone Edge Observatory, considering a discrete set of sky locations to visit and using “t-effective” as a reward metric, a measure of the quality of the data.Deep Q-Networks (DQNs), belonging to the class of value-based methods, have shown remarkable success in the optimization of astronomical observations in our dataset. In the full environment, the average reward value in each state was found to be 92%±5% of the maximum possible reward, while on the test set it resulted in 87%±9% of the maximum possible reward.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Reliable and Efficient Machine Learning (Final Technical Report)

Modern scientific experiments generate massive amounts of data at a pace much faster than humans can manually analyze. While machine learning has revolutionized commercial data analysis (such as recommending movies or recognizing faces), applying these tools to complex scientific discovery is challenging because scientific answers must be precise, interpretable, and adhere to physical laws. The research under this project aims to develop new mathematical tools and computer algorithms specifically designed for scientific applications. Major progress has been made in automatically cleaning and deconstructing messy experimental data, analyzing the visual information of physical phenomena, determining the underlying physical variables, and providing rig orous mathematical analysis of interesting algorithms and concepts widely used in machine learning. This project addressed the critical gap between our ability to generate massive scientific data and our ability to extract interpretable information from it. We established mathematical foundations for Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) aimed at effective data analytics and automated discovery. Our work focused on three core objectives: (1) developing reliable feature extraction methods for dynamic high-dimensional data, (2) establishing mathematical foundations for discovering dynamics via neural networks, and (3) creating rigorous optimization techniques for these models. Key outcomes come from two fronts. On the practical side, they include the development of algorithms that significantly enhance the extraction of signals from field data, as well as the capability to handle situations that exhibit smooth variations or physical stretching due to temperature changes. They also include the creation of an automated framework for discovering fundamental state variables from raw experimental data, demonstrating the ability to identify intrinsic physical dimensions without prior knowledge of the governing laws. On the theoretical front, the research results in theoretical advances in Optimal Transport, a widely used notion in SciML, specifically regarding functions with fixed-size nodal sets, provide sharp bounds relevant to uncertainty quantification. Meanwhile, the outcomes also include the establishment of convergence theories for nonlocal gradient descent methods, enabling robust optimization with noisy data in high-dimensional settings commonly encountered in scientific modeling. The project also helps creating opportunities to train the next generation of researchers, equipping them with the necessary technical skills for today’s workplace and preparing them for future advances.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Computational Power of Random Quantum Circuits in Arbitrary Geometries

Empirical evidence for a gap between the computational powers of classical and quantum computers has been provided by experiments that sample the output distributions of two-dimensional quantum circuits. Many attempts to close this gap have utilized classical simulations based on tensor network techniques, and their limitations shed light on the improvements to quantum hardware required to frustrate classical simulability. In particular, quantum computers having in excess of approximately 50 qubits are primarily vulnerable to classical simulation due to restrictions on their gate fidelity and their connectivity, the latter determining how many gates are required (and, therefore, how much infidelity is suffered) in generating highly entangled states. Here, we describe recent hardware upgrades to Quantinuum’s H2 quantum computer, enabling it to operate on up to 56 qubits with arbitrary connectivity and 99.843(5)% two-qubit gate fidelity. We define a class of circuits with random geometries that become hard to classically simulate in very low depth and implement them utilizing the flexible connectivity of H2. A careful analysis demonstrating the fast saturation of classical simulation complexity with depth indicates that H2 can yield data well beyond the reach of state-of-the art classical simulation methods at unprecedented fidelities. We find that the considerable difficulty of classically simulating H2 is likely limited only by qubit number, demonstrating the promise and scalability of the quantum charge-coupled device architecture as continued progress is made toward building larger machines. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

DeCross, M.↗

Solvothermal Synthesis of [Cr 7 S 8 (en) 8 Cl 2 ]Cl 3 ⋅ 2H 2 O with Magnetically Frustrated [Cr 7 S 8 ] 5+ Double‐Cubes**

Abstract A novel transition metal chalcohalide [Cr 7 S 8 (en) 8 Cl 2 ]Cl 3 ⋅ 2H 2 O, with [Cr 7 S 8 ] 5+ dicubane cationic clusters, has been synthesized by a low temperature solvothermal method, using dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) and ethylenediamine ( en ) solvents. Ethylenediamine ligand exhibits bi‐ and monodentate coordination modes; in the latter case ethylenediamine coordinates to Cr atoms of adjacent clusters, giving rise to a 2D polymeric structure. Although magnetic susceptibility shows no magnetic ordering down to 1.8 K, a highly negative Weiss constant, θ =−224(2) K, obtained from Curie‐Weiss fit of inverse susceptibility, suggests strong antiferromagnetic (AFM) interactions between S =3/2 Cr(III) centers. Due to the complexity of the system with (2 S +1) 7 =16384 microstates from seven Cr 3+ centers, a simplified model with only two exchange constants was used for simulations. Density‐functional theory (DFT) calculations yielded the two exchange constants to be J 1 =−21.4 cm −1 and J 2 =−30.2 cm −1 , confirming competing AFM coupling between the shared Cr 3+ center and the peripheral Cr 3+ ions of the dicubane cluster. The best simulation of the experimental data was obtained with J 1 =−20.0 cm −1 and J 2 =−21.0 cm −1 , in agreement with the slightly stronger AFM exchange within the triangles of the peripheral Cr 3+ ions as compared to the AFM exchange between the central and peripheral Cr 3+ ions. This compound is proposed as a synthon towards magnetically frustrated systems assembled by linking dicubane transition metal‐chalcogenide clusters into polymeric networks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Computing with a Chemical Reservoir

Contemporary computation is expensive, with large language models and artificial intelligence becoming more common in daily life. However, high-performance computing is reaching the limits in speed and energy expenditure, and domain science requires ever-increasing computational capacity, with simulations and data analysis pipelines ever-growing in complexity. As we progress towards post-exascale computation, with the associated high energy costs, new methods of energy-conscious computation are required. Novel analog and hybrid digital-analog systems can overcome these challenges, and chemical reactions offer a promising avenue. Computers based on chemistry can provide compact desktop devices with immense computational power. These devices are readily scalable by considering greater reaction systems or vessels, meeting the high-performance requirements for scientific workflows. In this article, we present ChemComp, a compilation pipeline for the conversion of ordinary differential equations into implementable chemical reactions. We then demonstrate the solving capabilities of ChemComp by emulating a potential chemical reservoir device. We leverage the multi-layer intermediate representation (MLIR) compiler framework to implement an expressive chemical reaction abstraction and propose a path for chemical reaction networks (CRNs) to represent mathematical problems effectively. Combined, we demonstrate a potential workflow that can harness chemistry’s computing power to create energy-efficient, high-performance computation systems for contemporary computing needs.

artificial intelligence↗

UMap: An application-oriented user level memory mapping library

Exploiting the prominent role of complex memories in exascale node architecture, the UMap page fault handler offers new capabilities to access large memory-mapped data sets directly. UMap provides flexible configuration options to customize page handling to each application, including analysis of massive observational and simulation data sets. The high-performance design features I/O decoupling, dynamic load balancing, and application-level controls. Page faults triggered by application threads and processes accessing data mapped to a UMapp’ed region are handled via the Linux userfaultfd protocol, an asynchronous message-oriented kernel-user communication mechanism that avoids the context switch penalty of traditional signal fault handlers. UMap is fully open source. In this paper, we give an overview of the UMap library architecture, its extensible plugin architecture, and the use/performance of UMap in emerging heterogeneous memory hierarchies such as near-node Non-volatile Memory (NVM) and network attached memories. We highlight new capabilities in two pagefault management plugins, the NetworkStore and SparseStore. We demonstrate the integration between UMap and multiple ECP products including Caliper, Metall, ZFP, Mochi, and Ripples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Revisiting Current Paradigms: Subject Matter Expert Views on High Consequence Facility Security Assessments

Security assessments support decision-makers' ability to evaluate current capabilities of high consequence facilities (HCF) to respond to possible attacks. However, increasing complexity of today's operational environment requires a critical review of traditional approaches to ensure that implemented assessments are providing relevant and timely insights into security of HCFs. Using interviews and focus groups with diverse subject matter experts (SMEs), this study evaluated the current state of security assessments and identified opportunities to achieve a more "ideal" state. The SME-based data underscored the value of a systems approach for understanding the impacts of changing operational designs and contexts (as well as cultural influences) on security to address methodological shortcomings of traditional assessment processes. These findings can be used to inform the development of new approaches to HCF security assessments that are able to more accurately reflect changing operational environments and effectively mitigate concerns arising from new adversary capabilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An intra-node HPC network architecture with nanosecond-scale photonic switches

We propose a single-stage network architecture for intra-node connectivity that makes use of nanosecond-scale photonic switches. Although buffering at the switch points is of vital importance for complex multi-stage networks, this is not the case for smaller-scale single-stage networks where the end nodes are located only one hop apart. By limiting the buffering to the end points, the proposed architecture manages to minimize the required electro-optic and opto-electronic conversions, leading in this way to both low end-to-end latency and better energy efficiency. Combining these advantages with nanosecond-scale switching times can allow for high-throughput operation even for frequent switch reconfigurations. The performance of the proposed architecture is evaluated via discrete-event simulations for a wide range of synthetic-traffic cases. The simulation results show that high-throughput operation of ≥90% can be achieved even for small message sizes, i.e., 32 KB for all-to-all communication and 2 KB for uniform random traffic, at a data rate of 400 Gb/s and a switch reconfiguration time of ≤72 ns. Moreover, if 100-ns reconfiguration times are achievable as opposed to 150-ns, then for the all-to-all traffic case a 16% and 28% reduction in completion time can be achieved for message sizes of 8 KB and 1 KB, respectively. In a forthcoming era of optically interfaced processors and accelerators, nanosecond-scale photonic switches appear as a highly promising solution for keeping up with the intra-node bandwidth scaling due to their high-bandwidth, low-latency and fast-switching capabilities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Technology Integration to Gain Commercial Efficiency for the Urban Goods Delivery System, Meet Future Demand for City Passenger and Delivery Load/Unload Spaces, and Reduce Energy Consumption

This three-year project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Office has the potential to radically improve the urban freight system in ways that help both the public and private sectors. Working from 2018-2021, project researchers at the University of Washington’s Urban Freight Lab and collaborators at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory have produced key data, tested technologies in complex urban settings, developed a prototype parking availability app, and helped close major knowledge gaps. All the fruits of this project can be harnessed to help cities better understand, support and actively manage truck load/unload operations and their urban freight transport infrastructure. Project learnings and tools can be used to help make goods delivery firms more efficient by reducing miles traveled and the time it takes to complete deliveries, benefitting businesses and residents who rely on the urban freight system for supplies of goods. And, ultimately, these project learnings and tools can be used to make cities more livable by minimizing wasted travel, which, in turn, contributes to reductions in fuel consumption and emissions. Cities today are challenged to effectively and efficiently manage their infrastructure to absorb the impacts of ever-increasing e-commerce-fueled delivery demand. All delivery trucks need to park somewhere to unload and load. Yet today’s delivery drivers have no visibility on available parking until they arrive at a site, which may be full. That means they can wind up cruising for parking, which wastes time and fuel and contributes to congestion. Once drivers do find parking, the faster they can unload at the spot, the faster they free up space for other drivers, helping others avoid circling for parking. This makes the parking space—and thus the greater load/unload network—more productive. To this end, the research team successfully met the project’s three goals, developing and piloting strategies and technologies to: 1. Reduce parking-seeking behavior in the study area by 20%; 2. Reduce parcel truck dwell time (the time a truck spends in a spot to load/unload) in the study area by 30%; 3. Increase curb space, alley space and private loading bay occupancy rates in the study area. The research team met these goals by creating and piloting on Seattle streets OpenPark, a first-of-its-kind real-time and forecasting curb parking app customized for commercial delivery drivers—giving drivers the “missing link” in their commonly used routing tools that tell them how best to get to delivery locations, but not what parking is available to use when they get there. Installing in-ground sensors on commercial vehicle load zones (CVLZs) and passenger load zones (PLZs) in the 10-block study area in Seattle’s downtown neighbourhood of Belltown let researchers glean real-time curb parking data. The research team also met project goals by piloting three parcel lockers in public and private spaces open to any delivery carrier, creating a consolidated delivery hub that lets drivers complete deliveries faster and spend less time parked. Researchers collected and analysed data to produce the first empirical, robust, statistically significant results as to the impact of the lockers, and app, on on-the-ground operations. In addition to collecting and analyzing sensor and other real-time and historical data, researchers rode along with delivery drivers to confirm real-world routing and parking behavior. Researchers also surveyed building managers on their private loading bay operations to understand how to boost usage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A comparison of probabilistic generative frameworks for molecular simulations

Generative artificial intelligence is now a widely used tool in molecular science. Despite the popularity of probabilistic generative models, numerical experiments benchmarking their performance on molecular data are lacking. Here, in this work, we introduce and explain several classes of generative models, broadly sorted into two categories: flow-based models and diffusion models. We select three representative models: neural spline flows, conditional flow matching, and denoising diffusion probabilistic models, and examine their accuracy, computational cost, and generation speed across datasets with tunable dimensionality, complexity, and modal asymmetry. Our findings are varied, with no one framework being the best for all purposes. In a nutshell, (i) neural spline flows do best at capturing mode asymmetry present in low-dimensional data, (ii) conditional flow matching outperforms other models for high-dimensional data with low complexity, and (iii) denoising diffusion probabilistic models appear the best for low-dimensional data with high complexity. Our datasets include a Gaussian mixture model and the dihedral torsion angle distribution of the Aib9 peptide, generated via a molecular dynamics simulation. We hope our taxonomy of probabilistic generative frameworks and numerical results may guide model selection for a wide range of molecular tasks.

Artificial intelligence↗

A small core in Vesta inferred from Dawn’s observations

Vesta’s large-scale interior structure had previously been constrained primarily using the gravity and shape data from the Dawn mission. However, these data alone still allow a wide range of possibilities for the differentiation state of the body. The moment of inertia is arguably the most diagnostic parameter related to the radial density distribution of a planetary body, making it crucial for assessing the body’s state of internal differentiation. Determining the moment of inertia requires additional measurements of the amplitudes of small rotational motions, such as precession and nutation. Here we report an updated estimate of the moment of inertia of Vesta inferred from Dawn’s Doppler tracking via the Deep Space Network and onboard imaging data. The recovered value for Vesta’s normalized polar moment of inertia is $\overline{C}$/MR 2 = 0.4208 ± 0.0047 (where M is the mass of Vesta and R is the reference radius), which is only 6.6% lower than the homogeneous value of 0.4505. This value, combined with the gravity field and global shape, suggests that Vesta’s interior has limited density stratification beneath its howardite–eucrite–diogenite-dominated crust. We propose two possible origin scenarios that are consistent with the observed constraints. In the first scenario, Vesta’s interior did not undergo full differentiation due to late accretion. In the second scenario, Vesta originated as an impact remnant of a larger differentiated body re-accreted with non-chondritic bulk composition produced from a catastrophic impact. Vesta did not experience complete differentiation in either scenario, suggesting that its current state reflects a complex interplay between its accretion timing, thermal evolution, redistribution of 26 Al bearing melt and/or impact processes.

CNEOS 2014-01-08 bolide↗

Dynamic Matrix Completion Based State Estimation in Distribution Grids

The power distribution network is undergoing tremendous transformation due to an increase in the penetration of renewable energy resources and electric vehicles. These changes have resulted in greater uncertainty and dynamics in the distribution grid states. Therefore, the ability to track and monitor system states has become a critical need for accurate and timely control actions. In this paper, we propose two dynamic sparsity-based state estimation approaches for distribution systems: (1) locally weighted matrix completion (LW-MC) and (2) Bayesian matrix completion with Kalman filter prediction (BMC-KF). The performance of the proposed dynamic state estimation strategies is compared with the classic/static matrix completion (static-MC) approach using the IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 bus test systems. Finally, results indicate that BMC-KF approach outperforms both LW-MC as well as static-MC even when 30% of the measurement data is available. Computational complexity associated with both approaches is quantified.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Atlas of Transcription Factor Binding Sites from ENCODE DNase Hypersensitivity Data across 27 Tissue Types

Characterizing the tissue-specific binding sites of transcription factors (TFs) is essential to reconstruct gene regulatory networks and predict functions for non-coding genetic variation. DNase-seq footprinting enables the prediction of genome-wide binding sites for hundreds of TFs simultaneously. Despite the public availability of high-quality DNase-seq data from hundreds of samples, a comprehensive, up-to-date resource for the locations of genomic footprints is lacking. Here, we develop a scalable footprinting workflow using two state-of-the-art algorithms: Wellington and HINT. We apply our workflow to detect footprints in 192 ENCODE DNase-seq experiments and predict the genomic occupancy of 1,515 human TFs in 27 human tissues. We validate that these footprints overlap true-positive TF binding sites from ChIP-seq. We demonstrate that the locations, depth, and tissue specificity of footprints predict effects of genetic variants on gene expression and capture a substantial proportion of genetic risk for complex traits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-xBR NEON Bartlett Experimental Forest (BART)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xBR NEON Bartlett Experimental Forest (BART). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xBR NEON Bartlett Experimental Forest (BART) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The Bartlett Experimental Forest is an actively managed forest; managed portions (30%) reflect a range of forest patch sizes and structural distributions. The Bartlett forest has a history of logging dating from colonial times through the beginning of the 20th century. Approximately 70% of the land area has remained uncut since the early 1900s. Natural disturbances include late 19th century fire, beech scale-Nectria complex (beech bark disease) beginning in the 1940s, severe wind disturbance resulting from hurricanes in 1938 and 1954 and a damaging ice storm in 1998.

Network), NEON (National Ecological Observatory↗